CNBC Halftime Report: "Trading the Pivotal Week for the Market"

Date: December 8, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Shannon Saccocia, Amy Raskin, Steve Liesman

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives into a critical week for financial markets, defined by the upcoming Fed policy decision and closely-watched earnings from Oracle and Broadcom. Scott Wapner and the Halftime investment committee examine the implications of monetary policy shifts, dissect the health of the "AI trade," and debate stock-specific catalysts and concerns—from tech giants Apple and Tesla to banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs and the resilience of Berkshire Hathaway post-Buffett.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fed Meeting and Market Impact (01:01–10:48)

• Anticipation of Rate Policy:
  • The central debate is whether the Fed will implement a “hawkish cut”—lowering rates with cautious rhetoric—or perhaps hold off, given uncertainty in economic data delayed by government shutdown.
• Global Context:
  • Joe Terranova notes, “84% of global central banks, their last policy action was a rate cut. You do not want to see that figure fall below 50%. That’s when...markets get into trouble.” (02:45)
• Liquidity vs. Growth:
  • Supportive liquidity from the Fed is underpinning positive outlooks, but risks remain if long-term rates rise.
• Data Dependency and Forecast Quality:
  • Steve Liesman argues the Fed's forecasts are “worthless” without current data, due to delays:

    "I don't understand these models that are going to spit out the Fed's forecast...They're going to be kind of worthless and the market's going to have to really take a key part of the Fed's forward guidance...with a huge grain of salt." (06:22)

• Inflation Concerns:
  • Inflation expectations remain sticky: >“There’s some talk out there that the economy is accelerating already and you have not brought inflation down. There’s a bunch of people...that think...we’re going to be above 2% for [years].” –Steve Liesman (08:34)

2. AI Trade: Oracle, Broadcom & Market Leadership (10:48–18:02)

• Oracle’s Debt-Fueled Ambitions:
  • Joe Terranova: “Oracle has to address the capex...Are they actually going to do this $35 billion plus private [debt] deal...to add upon the debt?” (11:18)
  • Bryn Talkington warns of risk: "I think that's going to continue to be an overhang because Oracle has to go build this and they're not even going to start until 2027 with Stargate." (12:40)
• Broadcom: The Rising Challenger:
  • Amy Raskin: “[Broadcom]’s up 70% year to date, 120% over the last year...Question is, is it going to be great enough? ...Are they going to announce new TPU customers beyond Google?” (14:32–15:19)
  • Joe stresses Broadcom’s growth opportunity: “Nvidia is nearly 80% [of AI chips]; Broadcom somewhere around 9–10%. There’s a tremendous amount of growth opportunity as we move forward.” (15:47)
• Market Breadth in Tech:
  • The shift from "Mag 7" (mega-cap tech) dominance to more diverse leadership is emerging; Ed Yardeni’s recent call to underweight Mag 7 in favor of the broader market is referenced.
  • Bryn Talkington: "We always expected there to be some narrowing of the delta between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the 493...there’s going to be enough strength in the 493 to make it worth it." (17:22–17:44)

3. Company Spotlights & Sector Debates

Apple and Executive Departures (19:28–21:58)

• Discussion about ongoing C-suite departures and whether they threaten Apple’s lead.
• Bryn takes a measured stance: “I think Apple is still in pole position from a consumer product perspective...as long as Tim Cook is there then...the market...will continue to move itself higher.” (20:16)
• Amy Raskin on valuation: “Apple has a good core business...It’s expensive for probably its earnings growth but it’s not going away anytime soon.” (21:42)

Tesla Downgrade & Strategy (21:58–22:46)

• Tesla downgraded by Morgan Stanley; Bryn suggests selling calls at these lofty levels: “...this is like outer Earth orbit. I don’t think it’s going to get much higher...I would sell calls here.” (22:21)

Netflix, Paramount, and Streaming Wars (22:54–24:31)

• Joe sees a holding pattern for Netflix: “I think there’s something about being successful in investing...Don’t spend a lot of mental capital on something and you’re going to have to spend a lot...on Netflix now.” (24:06)

Goldman Sachs & Financials (24:38–25:15)

• Amy Raskin: “Capital markets environment is good but...that’s getting fully discounted. ...Again...it’s had a big move and there’s a lot of optimism in the stock.” (24:50)

Crypto Exposure: MicroStrategy & Ethereum (25:15–26:40)

• Bryn prefers Ethereum over MicroStrategy due to complexity: “MicroStrategy’s balance sheet is way too complicated for me...I’ve decided to play it with Ethereum.” (26:32)

Carvana as Turnaround Story (34:25–35:59)

• Joe on Carvana: “It is a company that is gathering significant market share...I think their execution is the reason you’re seeing the appreciation and the revenue growth. Congratulations to them.” (35:10–35:59)

Berkshire Hathaway Post-Buffett (28:57–33:33)

• Discussion highlights concerns over leadership transition and investment style.
• Amy: “Berkshire’s underperformed in part because it’s...viewed more defensively. ...I think Berkshire is the stock you want to own. If things start to go south, that’s when it shines.” (29:27)
• Joe: “It hurts to lose another strong investment mind...Insurance companies in 2025 have not performed well. ...It is identified as a ‘momentum stock’...it’s waning right now.” (30:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Questioning Earnings Forecasts:

  "I don't understand these models that are going to spit out the Fed's forecast...They're going to be kind of worthless and the market's going to have to really take a key part of the Fed's forward guidance...with a huge grain of salt."
  — Steve Liesman, 06:22

• On AI Chips Market Share:

  “Nvidia is nearly 80% and you’re sitting with Broadcom somewhere around 9 or 10%. There’s a tremendous amount of growth opportunity…”
  — Joe Terranova, 15:47

• On Equity Market Leadership:

  "We expected there to be some narrowing of the delta between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the 493...there’s going to be enough strength in the 493 to make it worth it."
  — Bryn Talkington, 17:38

• Comment on Berkshire after Buffett:

  “Berkshire’s underperformed in part because it’s...not a momentum stock. It’s viewed more defensively...It shines when things go south.”
  — Amy Raskin, 29:27

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:01 — Opening remarks; overview of the week’s importance
• 02:45 — Joe Terranova on global central bank actions and implications
• 06:22 — Steve Liesman critiques Fed’s data limitations
• 10:48 — Start of Oracle/Broadcom/AI trade discussion
• 14:32 — Amy Raskin on Broadcom’s stock performance
• 17:18 — Ed Yardeni's call on Mag 7 vs S&P 500
• 19:28 — Apple leadership discussion
• 21:58 — Tesla downgrade debate
• 22:54 — Streaming/Netflix/Paramount M&A conversation
• 24:38 — Financials and Goldman Sachs analysis
• 25:15 — Crypto and Ethereum/MicroStrategy discussion
• 28:57 — Berkshire Hathaway’s future post-Buffett
• 34:25 — Carvana’s S&P inclusion and turnaround
• 45:29 — Amy Raskin’s latest trades, healthcare focus
• 47:35 — Mike Santoli joins for “midday word” on the market

"Final Trades" (49:24–50:18)

• Amy Raskin: Ascendis Pharma (ASND) – New biotech buy.
• Bryn Talkington (for Shannon Saccocia): Consumer discretionary; more optimistic about growth.
• Bryn Talkington: Sells calls against the Nasdaq 10; partially covered for some upside.
• Joe Terranova: Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), a semi-equipment name up strongly YTD.

Tone & Takeaway

The discussion is fast-paced, sharp, and often skeptical—typical of “Halftime Report” as panelists challenge consensus and each other. The central takeaway is that while the market is positioned for a positive outcome fueled by Fed liquidity and AI narratives, risks around inflation, leadership transitions (both company and institutional), and high valuations are front of mind. Selectivity in stock-picking is increasing, and the era of “just buy the Mag 7” may be drawing to a close in favor of broader market opportunities and defensive positioning for potential turbulence ahead.

For those who missed the episode, this summary captures the essential debates, insights, and market calls of a pivotal moment for investors as 2025 winds to a close.