Halftime Report: Trading the Resilient Market (July 11, 2025)
Hosted by CNBC's Scott Wapner
Introduction
On July 11, 2025, CNBC's Halftime Report delved into the enduring resilience of the U.S. equity market amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainties. Hosted by Scott Wapner, the episode featured esteemed panelists Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, and Jim Leventhal. The discussion centered on navigating a market that, despite recent pullbacks, continues to demonstrate robust strength.
Market Overview
Scott Wapner opened the discussion by highlighting the current market landscape:
"Trading stocks at record highs. What are the best moves to make in this market which despite today's pullback, remains as resilient as ever?" [00:00]
The panel acknowledged that while the broader market shows red, key indices like the Russell 2000 have posted gains, and the NASDAQ is adjusting from its record peaks. President's rhetoric on tariffs and UBS's commentary on market resilience set the stage for deeper analysis.
Resilience Amid Turbulence
Josh Brown emphasized the market's ability to withstand external pressures:
"The market is resilient despite the noise with regards to tariffs, geopolitics, the Fed, and the unknowns there." [02:23]
He projected continued growth, anticipating GDP expansion of 2.5% translating to mid-single-digit revenue growth and potential for 10% earnings growth, surpassing market expectations of 5%. Brown advocated for an overweight position in industrials, financials, and housing.
Jim Leventhal added a nuanced perspective on bond yields and their implications:
"If bond yields far out in the curve break out above certain levels, it signifies that conservative money is truly concerned about the US economy." [04:06]
Leventhal underscored the dominance of AI as a longer-lasting growth driver over transient policy shifts, aligning with the panel's consensus on focusing investment strategies around fundamental growth areas.
Stock Selection and Sector Insights
Jenny Harrington discussed the broadening of investment inflows beyond the top-tier "Mag 7" stocks:
"The equal weighted composite is up as much as it is, and there is a lot of money going into two things other than the Mag 7." [06:46]
She highlighted the value in selecting non-Mag 7 stocks that offer compelling valuations and strong earnings. For instance, she shared a client scenario where diversification into disciplines like dividend income and growth strategies led to positioning in stocks like Schwab, Freeport, and United Rentals.
Stephanie Link echoed the importance of selective stock picking:
"A lot of people may be looking at the markets and saying, oh it's 21, 22 times earnings. How could I possibly get in? You got to pick your spots." [07:51]
She pointed to sectors like healthcare, which offers attractively priced stocks with sustainable dividend yields, and emphasized the feasibility of achieving strong returns without concentrating solely on mega-cap stocks.
Debate on Market Intelligence
A spirited debate unfolded regarding the market's assessment of stock valuations. Stephanie Link challenged the notion that only high-performing mega-caps deserve investment:
"If I were to say look at Microsoft, I would have to hold my nose to buy that here at this multiple I wouldn't. However, Alphabet and Nvidia don't require me to hold my nose." [10:02]
Jenny Harrington countered by critiquing the market's valuation of big names like Walmart:
"Wal Mart trades at 30 times earnings... that is a really rich multiple. I don't think that multiple is justified." [11:01]
Jim Leventhal defended the consistency and performance of top-tier stocks like JP Morgan, highlighting their superior returns over other major companies:
"JP Morgan has outperformed others like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft... because the market is smart investors know what they're doing." [16:22]
Housing Sector and REITs
Josh Brown introduced new positions in the housing sector, citing companies like Toll Brothers and Dr. Horton:
"They have size and scale, industry leaders in gross margins and ROE... trading at 8.7 times earnings." [28:13]
Despite skepticism from Jenny Harrington regarding rate cuts already priced in, Brown remained optimistic about pent-up demand due to a shortage of 5 million homes and favorable supply-demand dynamics.
The conversation shifted to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), with Jenny Harrington advocating for selective investment:
"When the whole sector gets punished, you as a stock picker have incredible opportunity." [31:25]
She highlighted successful REITs in her portfolio, such as Crown Castle and Vici, emphasizing the importance of not dismissing the sector entirely and focusing on high-quality assets.
Cryptocurrency Insights
The panel explored the booming cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin's new highs and the prospects for Solana. Jim Leventhal shared his long-term commitment:
"I'm long bitcoin... I've been involved since about 3000 [Assuming a timestamp error, likely refers to a historical point]." [42:55]
He advocated for Solana due to its high transaction throughput and potential for tokenization across various assets, asserting that it offers greater utility compared to Bitcoin's stability.
Tenaya McKeel discussed the recent surges driven by short liquidations and ETF inflows:
"Bitcoin ETF saw their biggest day of inflows this year yesterday at more than $1 billion." [35:41]
The panelists expressed varied strategies, from holding strong positions to actively averaging down on dips.
Dividend Dilemma
As dividend yields in the S&P 500 approach all-time lows, the panel dissected the implications for income-focused investors. Jenny Harrington clarified:
"The reason the yield is low is because the market's up so much... it's an inverse valuation function of a high multiple." [37:21]
She differentiated between dividend income investors seeking high yields and dividend growth investors prioritizing consistent dividend increases aligned with earnings growth. Stephanie Link cautioned against chasing high-dividend stocks without considering total return:
"Take a look at Verizon... the dividend can be alluring, but you have to have total return in your eyesights." [40:36]
The discussion emphasized the necessity for investors to balance dividend income with overall portfolio growth and valuation metrics.
Conclusion
The Halftime Report concluded with a reaffirmation of the market's resilience and the necessity for strategic stock selection amidst evolving economic conditions. Panelists underscored the importance of focusing on fundamental growth areas, leveraging selective investment in sectors like housing and REITs, and navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies and dividend yields.
Scott Wapner wrapped up by teasing upcoming segments on Bitcoin's trajectory and the ongoing dividend dilemma, ensuring listeners are equipped with comprehensive insights to navigate the second half of the trading day.
Notable Quotes
- Josh Brown: "The market is resilient despite the noise with regards to tariffs, geopolitics, the Fed, and the unknowns there." [02:23]
- Jenny Harrington: "There are compelling combinations of valuation and earnings out there. It’s not the whole, I don't think the spotlight will shine entirely on the Mag 7." [11:01]
- Stephanie Link: "A lot of people may be looking at the markets and saying, oh it's 21, 22 times earnings. How could I possibly get in? You got to pick your spots." [07:51]
- Jim Leventhal: "JP Morgan has outperformed others like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft... because the market is smart investors know what they're doing." [16:22]
- Jenny Harrington: "The reason the yield is low is because the market's up so much... it's an inverse valuation function of a high multiple." [37:21]
- Stephanie Link: "Take a look at Verizon... the dividend can be alluring, but you have to have total return in your eyesights." [40:36]
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the Halftime Report episode, providing listeners and readers with actionable insights and a clear understanding of the panel's expert analysis on trading a resilient market.