CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Trading the Stock Surge
Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Featured Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal, Josh Brown

Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives into the current surge in the stock market, dissecting the continued climb of the Dow and the S&P 500’s equal weight index as both reach record highs. Despite mixed economic signals—most notably, a disappointing retail sales report—the panel debates what’s driving the market’s resilience, unpacks the influence of AI, CapEx, and industrials, and discusses global investing opportunities. The tone is energetic, informed, and, at times, cheerfully combative, as panelists present both bullish and contrarian views against a backdrop of robust earnings and shifting macro trends.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Resilience Amid Mixed Data

• [00:55-02:45] Scott Wapner introduces a market at record highs, even as retail sales disappoint. He references the Fed and specifically Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who suggests rate cuts may stay on hold:

  "We could be on hold for quite some time. Monetary policy is in the vicinity of neutral." — Beth Hammack, [01:50]

• [02:45-04:09] Stephanie Link remains bullish, emphasizing strong CapEx, resilient consumer and corporate balance sheets, deregulation tailwinds, falling inflation, and rising productivity, all catalyzed by AI:

  "Add it all up — double-digit earnings. Earnings are getting revised higher. That's why the market is going higher." — Stephanie Link, [04:08]

• [04:24-05:26] Joe Terranova underscores the calm in bond markets as a positive, noting that despite apparent “quiet” in stocks, the market is stabilizing at higher levels—an important signal for credit and capital costs.

2. Bullish vs. Bearish Narratives

• [05:26-08:05] Josh Brown pushes back on predictions of a consumer crack, citing bank data and pointing to robust consumer health and a “quarter after quarter after quarter” strong earnings picture:

  "There is no sign of exploding credit card liabilities... If we don't have it, I'm sorry. So until we do, how about we focus on exactly what Joe and Stephanie are talking about: the absurdly strong earnings picture." — Josh Brown, [07:06]

3. Industrial Momentum & AI Derivatives

• [08:14-14:43] The team discusses the manufacturing and industrial rally, with Caterpillar and derivative AI plays like Vertiv and Quanta cited as beneficiaries. Panelists highlight how the AI boom is driving up demand not just in tech, but in “real economy” sectors—energy, transportation, logistics.

  “It's a derivative trade off the AI… really hardcore manufacturing that's starting to improve.” — Stephanie Link, [10:09]

• [12:40-13:42] Stephanie Link buys more Rockwell Automation, citing strong earnings growth and “self-help” in margins. She also flags Rails (CSX, Norfolk Southern) as sleeper picks for 2026, given their role in supporting industrial growth.

• [14:05-14:43] Jim Lebenthal notes that industrials and transport companies have fortified their balance sheets over recent years, enabling higher dividends and valuations.

4. Broadening Market Leadership

• [15:12-16:53] Josh Brown celebrates the surge in the S&P equal weight (RSP), highlighting how market gains are no longer concentrated in the “Mag 7” tech giants, but are increasingly broad-based:

  "Throw all of that out. It's a totally different environment now… this is the chart that tells the story… not enough people are paying attention when we talk about the broadening. It's not a one day thing." — Josh Brown, [16:24]

5. Alternative Asset Moves & Crypto

• [16:53-18:47] Gold and Bitcoin are addressed. Wells Fargo is bullish on gold, sees pullbacks as buying opportunities. Despite crypto volatility, Robinhood’s earnings are considered a “prove-me” moment, as the company diversifies away from its shrinking crypto revenue stream.

6. Software Sector Bounce

• [18:47-22:52] Software stocks get a rare bounce, with JPMorgan identifying select “AI-resilient” names as potential rebound candidates. Stephanie Link initiates a position in Synopsys, a leader in semiconductor design software:

  “[Synopsys] have 41% market share, 70% is recurring revenue… using the weakness and the bad days in software to be adding to it.” — Stephanie Link, [19:38]

• [20:52-22:23] Josh Brown tempers optimism, warning that software names will remain in a downtrend until proven otherwise, given investor skepticism around their survivability in the AI revolution.

7. Semiconductors: Rich Valuations & Supply Chain Issues

• [22:52-25:36] Jim Lebenthal defends Qualcomm despite Morgan Stanley's “sell” rating, attributing its headwinds to temporary memory chip shortages. Joe Terranova remains bullish on Micron, even after a major rally, which was recently propelled by a new $500 price target from Deutsche.

8. Select Company Deep Dives

• Spotify: Surges after reporting record monthly active users. Remains a quality name, but had struggled with momentum before this quarter.
• Otis: Josh Brown exits, noting real estate sluggishness and relative opportunity elsewhere.

9. "Halo" Stocks: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

• [30:36-33:03] Josh Brown introduces the “HALO” thesis:

  “HALO is Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence. And that is the through-line of all of the things that are working this year...You really can't type something into an LLM and get a Hershey bar in your hand...It’s a really simple litmus test: does this company have heavy assets?” — Josh Brown, [31:30]

10. International Equity Flows

• [37:16-40:06] With US equities at records, global markets—especially Brazil, Israel, and Asia—are attracting capital. The team attributes this to a weaker dollar, faster earnings growth in emerging markets, and favorable sectoral tilts (industrials, materials, financials).

  "Brazil...is a power play. They have the power that everybody in this world wants and doesn't have...AI beneficiary and I don't think people really appreciate that aspect." — Stephanie Link, [37:55]

11. Upcoming Earnings & Stock Watch

• Gilead, Zoetis, Vertex, Toast, PG&E, and others previewed for post-bell results.
• Fast final trade picks: Uber, Oracle, Dow Chemical.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [04:08] “Add it all up—double-digit earnings...That's why the market is going higher.”
  — Stephanie Link

• [07:06] “There is no sign of exploding credit card liabilities...So until we do, how about we focus on exactly what Joe and Stephanie are talking about: the absurdly strong earnings picture.”
  — Josh Brown

• [15:20] “Throw all of that out. It's a totally different environment now...this is the chart that tells the story...the broadening. It's not a one day thing.”
  — Josh Brown

• [31:30] “HALO is Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence...You really can't type something into an LLM and get a Hershey bar in your hand.”
  — Josh Brown

• [37:55] “Brazil...is a power play. They have the power that everybody in this world wants and doesn't have...I think they're going to be a very big beneficiary of AI and I don't think people really appreciate that aspect.”
  — Stephanie Link

Headline Timestamps

• [01:50] Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack on rate cuts: “We could be on hold for quite some time.”
• [04:08] Stephanie Link on earnings momentum.
• [07:06] Josh Brown on consumer and bank data.
• [10:09] AI derivative industrial trades spotlighted.
• [14:43] Industrials’ cleaner balance sheets highlighted.
• [15:20] RSP’s role in market breadth.
• [19:38] Stephanie Link on Synopsys software play.
• [31:30] Josh Brown introduces HALO stocks.

Conclusion

Halftime Report delivers a well-rounded, real-time assessment of the stock market’s bullish mood despite mixed macro signals. The panel asserts that while caution signs exist (retail data, Fed uncertainty, high valuations), robust CapEx, broadening market gains, and AI-driven industrial expansion continue to propel equities higher. Listeners are encouraged to look for "heavy assets, low obsolescence" in stock picks and consider global diversification as market leadership expands beyond tech giants and U.S. borders.

Final Trades

• Uber – Josh Brown “[Uber] just went live with their Apollo go Robo taxi in Saudi Arabia today… stock to go.” [47:06]
• Oracle – Jim Lebenthal “Up three days in a row. Even if it’s a relief rally, I think it’s got more stuff.” [47:18]
• Dow Chemical – Joe Terranova “Self help, Goldman Sachs to a thousand.” [47:23]

For more insight and the latest market action, tune into the Halftime Report weekdays at 12 PM ET on CNBC.