Halftime Report Podcast Summary
Episode: Trading the 'Tech Palooza'
Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Guests: Joe Terranova, Josh Brown, Anastasia Amoroso, Rich Saperstein, Michael Santoli
Overview: Tech 'Palooza' and MegaCap Momentum
This episode dives into a high-stakes week for markets as major tech titans lead the charge, earnings loom large, AI partnerships shake up the landscape, Nvidia's Jensen Huang unveils major news from D.C., and investors weigh the power of the "Mag 7" in propelling the S&P 500 toward new milestones. The rotation, risks, and future prospects of dominant plays like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet are dissected alongside shifting sentiment in energy, banking, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. S&P 500 Near 6900: The Power of the Mag 7
- Joe Terranova (02:12): The market is "advancing today on the strength of the Mag 7" (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Tesla). Tesla is noted as a potential next breakout star after lagging its cohort.
- Quote: "I would be absolutely floored if all five of them miss and had a detrimental effect on the market." (02:54)
- Year-to-date leadership has rotated within the Mag 7, rebuilding investor positioning and sentiment.
2. Microsoft & OpenAI: Restructuring News Shifts AI Landscape
- Breaking News: OpenAI’s restructuring solidifies Microsoft as a key shareholder, with Microsoft set to receive 20% of OpenAI revenue (03:13–04:25).
- Quote: Scott Wapner (04:25): “This strikes me as a very significant development...the fact that Microsoft...is going to get 20% of that. Wow.”
- Joe Terranova: Microsoft's continuous value addition and AI positioning through Azure is top of mind for investors.
- Michael Santoli (05:08): The clarified Microsoft-OpenAI deal removes recent uncertainty, allowing OpenAI to also work with other cloud providers (benefiting broader cloud ecosystem).
- Quote: “This is without question a clarifying moment for all parties involved. This is good for the AI spending halo...” (05:42)
3. Apple’s AI Crossroads and $4 Trillion Milestone
- Josh Brown (06:13–07:37): Raises critical questions about Apple’s path in generative AI—will they deepen OpenAI partnership, pursue Google’s Gemini, or build in-house? Apple’s privacy-focused ecosystem complicates deeper external integration.
- Quote: “Does Apple have to do a deal now with Gemini or is Apple going to be ready on a standalone basis with foundational LLM model internally?...That is the big question mark out there.” (10:15)
- Scott Wapner: Notes Apple’s market cap surpassing $4 trillion, with positive analyst sentiment despite questions about its AI product roadmap (11:16).
- Analyst targets: Baird at $280, Evercore at $290; Barclays underweight (11:40).
- Meanwhile, the market "gives Apple the benefit of the doubt" regarding future AI innovation (Michael Santoli, 11:52).
4. Alphabet’s Run and Search Risks
- Alphabet is “the best of the hyperscalers” month-to-date (up 10%) with strong efficiency and cash flow stats: “Seven products with over 1 billion daily monthly users, 170 billion in cash flow over the last two years.” (Joe Terranova, 13:45)
- Search Erosion Concerns: Joe downplays short-term threat from OpenAI’s new browser, while noting Alphabet’s portfolio of “shots on goal” including Waymo and cloud (16:18).
- Cloud Growth: Anastasia Amoroso observes Google Cloud’s rising share of revenues (from 3.6% in 2017 to ~16% in 2026), emphasizing the role of cloud in AI monetization (16:56).
5. Nvidia’s D.C. Event: New Supercomputers and Big Bets
- Live update (14:16, 40:34): Christina Partzanvelos reports from Nvidia’s conference—Jensen Huang announces a $1B investment in Nokia to develop 5G/6G software on Nvidia chips and a partnership with the US Department of Energy to build seven supercomputers.
- Quote: “The fact that they could be granted opportunities to continue shipping to China...that’s not priced into the market just yet.” (15:34)
- Edge AI services and infrastructure elaborated—"Electrons are the new oil." (26:14)
- Huang also rolls out “NV Q Link,” an open system with 17 quantum companies to share data (40:34).
6. Meta and Amazon: Behind the Tech Pack
- Meta: Slowdown attributed to early-year over-ownership, concerns about ad environment (17:59). Needs to “clarify that ad spending is going to remain strong.” (18:28)
- Amazon: Josh Brown laments underperformance (“one of my worst ideas of 2025”; 19:40). Notes layoffs as a questionable earnings pre-game signal.
- Quote: “I would almost prefer...if you’re going to do that, make that part of the actual earnings announcement.” (20:35)
7. Energy, Infrastructure, and Utilities: The New Power Trade
- Joe Terranova: Outlines strategy built around AI infrastructure’s “concentric rings,” highlighting Dell and IBM for data center growth (25:35).
- Utilities & Power Producers: OpenAI’s Nikita says, “Electrons are the new oil." (26:14) Wells Fargo claims the trend isn’t a fad, emphasizing secular shifts favoring utilities (26:40).
- Michael Santoli: Advocates including utilities alongside or instead of traditional energy allocations as a “solution” for power needs of AI and data centers.
8. Bank Sector Moves: Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Berkshire
- Wells Fargo: Joe Terranova initiates a position on deregulation, asset cap removal, and attractive valuation relative to JP Morgan (29:03).
- Quote: “It's 1.9 times book compared to 3 at JP Morgan ... and the return on tangible common equity...15, 16% and growing.” (29:32)
- JP Morgan: Josh Brown: “Technically, Wells looks like it’s going to 100...for Q4 I think WFC is the faster mover.” (30:43)
- Berkshire Downgrade: Josh acknowledges real concerns (Geico margins, rates, railroad exposure) but won’t sell, trusts long-term holding (32:08).
9. Healthcare: Divisive Sector Plays
- Michael Santoli: Buys XBI (biotech ETF), citing momentum (37:11). Notes healthcare’s quality factor and possible pivot to defensives in 2026 (38:29).
- Joe Terranova: Philosophically avoids healthcare, prefers large cap tech stability over healthcare’s “patent protection volatility.” (37:46)
- Notable subsector momentum: CVS, Viva Systems, Gilead, Intuitive Surgical (39:01).
10. Energy: Josh Brown’s Picks
- Refiners Play: Energy is “never talked about” but remains attractive. Josh highlights Phillips 66 (PSX), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Baker Hughes (BKR) for capital returns and breakout charts (42:12).
- Quote: “There’s only a couple of [public refiners]. They look really good. My answer would be yes, I think the stock wants 200.” (43:27)
- Santoli notes Phillips needs to focus on deleveraging.
11. Geopolitical & Macro News
- Ongoing government shutdown with increasing pressure to pass a stopgap (Emily Wilkins, 21:38).
- Israel’s “powerful strikes” in Gaza begin, boosting oil by ~2% (22:53).
- Hurricane Melissa nears Jamaica as a Category 5 (36:03).
- Elon Musk launches Grokipedia, an AI-moderated "Wikipedia alternative" (36:50).
12. Market Tactics & Final Trades
- Josh Brown: Netflix (reverse from 200-day) and Otis Worldwide (elevator maintenance contracts).
- Anastasia Amoroso: QQQ (stick with momentum).
- Michael Santoli: PayPal (CEO-led turnaround), ADP (balance sheet management).
- Joe Terranova: VST (Vistra Energy, power sector favorite).
Memorable Quotes & Timestamps
- Joe Terranova (02:54): “I would be absolutely floored if all five of them miss and had a detrimental effect on the market.”
- Scott Wapner (04:25): “...the fact that Microsoft...is going to get 20% of that. Wow.”
- Josh Brown (06:13): “Does Apple have to do a deal now with Gemini or is Apple going to be ready on a standalone basis...?”
- Anastasia Amoroso (08:07): “Revenue in 2025...forecast to grow 228%...the scale, the pace of growth is really quite significant.”
- Michael Santoli (16:56): “That’s where the monetization of AI lives right now. All of that capex...has the chance to be monetized through cloud...”
- Joe Terranova (29:32): "It's 1.9 times book compared to three at J.P. Morgan...return on tangible common equity 15, 16% and growing..."
- Josh Brown (30:43): “Wells Fargo...looks like it's going to 100...both technically look great.”
- Josh Brown (42:12): “There’s only a couple of [public refiners]. They look really good. My answer would be yes, I think the stock wants 200.”
- Joe Terranova (37:46): “I'd rather own large cap tech with large moats...I don’t have the volatility of a pharmaceutical...company.”
- Michael Santoli (38:29): “Healthcare...identifies with the quality factor. If the market pivots back towards quality in 2026...healthcare [will] benefit.”
Timeline of Key Segments
- 02:12: Mag 7’s role in S&P strength—Tesla’s possible breakout.
- 03:13–05:08: Microsoft-OpenAI restructuring and financial implications.
- 06:13–11:52: Apple’s AI strategy questions; $4T milestone.
- 13:45–17:37: Alphabet’s recent performance; search and cloud debates.
- 14:16 & 40:34: Nvidia’s D.C. announcements and Nokia investment.
- 17:37–19:14: Meta’s positioning among the Mag 7.
- 19:14–21:31: Amazon’s lagging performance and strategic questions.
- 25:25–27:12: Infrastructure trade: Dell, IBM, utilities as power shift.
- 29:03–33:25: Financials focus: Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Berkshire’s downgrade.
- 37:11–39:36: Biotech/healthcare sector debate.
- 42:12–44:39: Energy picks: Phillips 66, Marathon, sector philosophy.
- 46:36: Semiconductor sector overbought/crowding.
- 47:21–48:43: Preview of forthcoming earnings (Visa, ADP, Otis).
- 49:08–49:24: Final stock picks.
Tone, Style & Closing Remarks
The discussion is lively, fast-paced, and analytical, with strong opinions and back-and-forth debate. The panel balances strategic big-picture thinking about tech and AI, with micro analysis of individual stock moves, momentum, and rotation—constantly connecting fresh news to tactical positioning. Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds are occasionally referenced but the focus remains firmly on actionable investor insight.
Notable Takeaway: The tone is bullish but cautious—panelists agree the Mag 7 still dominate, with structurally important AI, cloud, infrastructure, and power generation beneficiaries forming the backbone of current strategies. However, concerns over valuation, sector rotation, and uncertainties (especially in AI alliances and global risk) persist beneath the surface.
End of Summary