
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate their strategies as tech stocks surge. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
Loading summary
Edward Jones Financial Advisor
At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. EDWARD Jones, Member, SIPC how do you
EY Parthenon Representative
turn your strategy into action and action into impact? Bold leaders do it through transformative strategy and transactions. Ones that work in practice, not just on paper. At EY Parthenon, we use an investor mindset to help you create value.
How?
By combining deep sector experience with AI powered technology so you can reimagine your business for tomorrow while building it today. Shape your future with EY Parthenon. Learn more today.
Scott Wapner
All right guys, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wagner. Front and center this hour, the tech surge. NASDAQ pacing for its best week since mid April. Big gains from the mega cap semis and some software blowouts. To talk about today, we'll trade all of it with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson and Brent talking to take you to the markets, show you exactly what we're doing. 12 noon in the East. There's the NASDAQ 1.25% leading the way today on this nice tech rebound. Stocks up, jobs miss, doesn't matter, yields down, market feeling okay with I think where things currently are. Another firm, Steph has turned bullish, even more so on stocks. CFRA goes to 80 50. They were at 7,400. Target got blown by obviously they see 86.50 next year. Tom Lee says could get 8,000 in August. Stephanie Link's been I think pretty bullish too. So what do you think?
Stephanie Link
I think we're kind of close to Goldilocks. Uh oh, I know, kind of close. We're not there exactly. The non farm payroll report wasn't great
Scott Wapner
nor was last month's. Right. I mean this into perspective.
Stephanie Link
Nor were the last three. The three month average is now at 20,000 jobs per month versus 77,000 before. So mainly though it is the public side, not the private side. That's number one. The Goldilocks piece of this is is though that the inflation report, the average hourly earnings is actually slowing 3.2% this go round versus 3.4 last. But when you add that with yesterday's unit labor costs that were much lower than expected in addition to higher productivity which was higher than expected. That's good overall for inflation, good overall for the Fed, probably good for Wash and why he didn't raise. And I don't think they're going to raise between now and the end of the year because I think productivity is the story and if we get a resolution on the war, that's icing on the cake. But the productivity is the important part. And Scott, the productivity grew last quarter 1.7%. But we're not even close to the peaks of productivity that we saw in the 50s and the 60s, which was closer to 4 to 5%.
Scott Wapner
Spin that to the market.
Stephanie Link
Then productivity helps on the inflation.
Brent
80,000.
Scott Wapner
I mean 80,000 8,000 on the S and P. Higher than all reasonable.
Stephanie Link
Let me finish.
Scott Wapner
I want to get away from the, I want to get away from the macro jobs, I want to get to the stock.
Stephanie Link
But I'm talking about the inflation because we've all been obsessed about inflation and jobs and everything else. So then you fast forward to the growth in the economy that we saw this week. ISM services, manufacturing, four year highs, Chicago Fed, etc. So you have growth and maybe inflation getting an improvement and that is leading to 48% earnings growth, 15% revenue growth, 250 basis points of gross margin expansion year over year for the s and P500. And the equal weight is actually outperforming the market weight. We've been talking about that all year long. So it is broadening out and that's why it's kind of like Goldilocks.
Scott Wapner
Okay. Jenny Harrington.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
What do you think?
Jenny Harrington
So I think.
Scott Wapner
What do you think?
Jenny Harrington
Steph said that we're near Goldilocks but we're not quite there yet. And my struggle continues to be fleshing out the near term and the longer term because to your point, productivity is extraordinary. It's extraordinary for corporate earnings and we aren't even seeing the best of it yet probably. What if productivity becomes so great and maybe these jobs numbers that we just saw are just the beginning of something. And what if there is ultimately job loss and what if there is, what if there is pressure on the consumer and what if that ultimately pressures consumer spending, which is a huge percent of gdp.
Scott Wapner
Jenny, you've been talking about honestly a lot of what ifs for a very long time job of an investor.
Jenny Harrington
That's the job.
Scott Wapner
But is that guiding, Is that guiding the way you're investing right now? Because a lot of the people who are the what ifs.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, but that's the challenge.
Scott Wapner
Are watching the market go up and still asking what if?
Jenny Harrington
So, so here, here's where I struggle, which is here and now. Today I'm all in. I'm positive earnings are great, but I think as a functional investor, you have to also like. So you're looking immediately ahead of you and then you're looking down the road. And when I look down the road, I have a lot of concern. But immediately here and now, today, fully invested. I love the breadth that we're seeing. You see the, the Dow Jones select dividend index up 16%. The Russell up 21% on the year S&P is up 14% after today. So you see this wonderful. You know, maybe I don't know, maybe I'm more like, maybe it is Goldilocks in this moment.
Stephanie Link
You're into it.
Jenny Harrington
But. Well, but, but then, you know, because I take the long term one. Well, it's just, it's just a struggle between the short term and the long term. And we all know while the music's playing, we worry.
Stephanie Link
I worry because you're being complacent. So. But the market always climbs a wall and the fundamentals are strong. I mean, earnings growth, we were thinking 25% this quarter, it's 48%.
EY Parthenon Representative
All I'm saying is, you know me,
Jenny Harrington
like, I can't celebrate the moment without worrying about the future.
Scott Wapner
I got it. Live a little. Let's go.
Stephanie Link
Kind of do
Scott Wapner
come from a family of ice cream. Ice cream producers and good one at that. Enjoy the sundae for a change.
Jenny Harrington
Everyone else gets to live a little because I worry for them. I always tell my clients, I'm like, see this gray hair? Like, I got that for you.
Stephanie Link
You should be in the beach.
EY Parthenon Representative
You get to go.
Stephanie Link
Just enjoy a fixed income portfolio.
Jenny Harrington
I practically have stuff.
Scott Wapner
You need the rainy day rum raisin flavor at Van Leeuwen.
Brent
Right.
Scott Wapner
We need to get that note to note to your bro. Let's go.
Brent
Earl Grey would be rainy day.
Scott Wapner
Rainy day rum raisin. Jenny's favorite flavor. What about you, Kev?
Kevin Simpson
All right, well, we can't skip over the jobs report, Scott. Not because it wasn't a disappointing print, but I think when we look at the tech trade rallying today, it's because of the revisions that we saw. You mentioned the three month average, but if I stretch it back and look over the 12 month, we're talking about 36,000 creations. And that's something where the Fed is not in any position where they can hike rates. So I agree with everyone here, but I think that maybe some enthusiasm or some expectation that maybe they're in a position where they're going to need to cut rates. And I don't think that's it either. So I like the Goldilocks analysis.
Scott Wapner
Do nothing on rates seems prudent for the, for the time being.
Kevin Simpson
Right? Yeah. And it's almost a rate cut by
Scott Wapner
proxy does well but the market frankly has been doing a rate tightening by proxy, hasn't it?
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, well, this changes the landscape. I mean there's no chance they can do it. But the inflationary problem is the one thing that keeps me up at night. But when you have earnings like this, that's what's so exciting about this market pushing up against all time highs because it's not on some promise into the future, it's on actual earnings growth and a decent economy. So I'm all about the rum rays.
Scott Wapner
You feel like, you feel like the call now that seem to be growing of 8,000 like Tom Lee says we could get there in August and then beyond that are realistic because of the earnings growth that Steph's talking about. I mean at the end of the day, if you want to, you know, if you ask yourself, well, why hasn't the market reacted more strongly to, you know, the uncertainty and that, this, that and the other about the war and where oil prices are going and any other bit of concern, it's because the earnings story is durable, at least so far and it's way better than people thought it was going to be. And the expectations for it in the quarters to come look pretty darn good too. How can you be negative? The market in that environment, albeit I totally get, and I'm not suggesting, don't consider the risks, don't plan for the rainy day. There's prudent risk management, obviously. However, if you look at the earnings story, until the earnings story changes, why should Steph spread bullishness and why should Tom Lees and why should ed Yardeni who's 8250 and says that could be conservative. Why should any of that change?
Kevin Simpson
Well, it shouldn't change as long as the earnings hold up. So to your point, I think 8,000 is a foregone conclusion. Whether we see that in August, maybe that's a little bit of a stretch. But the reason we're not freaking out over what's happening in the Middle east, it goes back to the idea that we're not seeing a worst case scenario there. So the stock market can pay more attention to things that matter very germanely to stock prices, which is earnings and multiples. And multiples aren't too high. Earnings are good. But I would say the most important thing. Spot on straight up is the guides. Nobody's guiding down. They're all guiding up. And to me that's more important than anything we're seeing.
Scott Wapner
I mean you got some of the software space today beating raises and why a lot of those stocks are doing well. Bryn. It's fair to ask if there's too much optimism without, without, without question. I mean, bank of America's Michael Hartnett today looks at his bull and bear sentiment indicator rising to the highest level since 2021. You know, am I supposed, what am I make of that?
Brennan
Not much. I would. Not much. I think it's a data point. I think if that was two weeks ago and then all of a sudden. Let me, let me reframe this the economy is good I think stuff. And Jenny obviously did a great job and Kevin walking through all the economic machinations that are happening. But let's talk stocks for a second. I think last week we had just like two seminal moments first of all with Microsoft and that when Microsoft has rallied what 100 and almost 30 points in a week and when they came out and they said models need to be swappable Satya and that yes, they are spending way much more, more on capex than they're making. But as we are seeing this cloud acceleration really across the three big hyperscalers you have seen I think, you know, we own rsp but let's talk about technology that we are seeing software continuing to make higher lows like looking at the igv and I think we're seeing this broadening that hey all these application companies and I think Microsoft is like at the epicenter, the ultimate SaaS company ultimately are going to be where you make money is these commodities models commoditized. On top of last week, I think the situational awareness blow up. You know, he clearly wasn't aware of the risk of leverage. And then with the cost B margin calls just. And then all those people following situational awareness by the way, following those trades, just that washout on top of Microsoft really showing us hey this Capex is here to stay. But software is not going away. I think it's been a really great reset in the market and you see that just with such a more broad selection and then Nvidia finally, I know it's a new position for staff but finally getting some love in the market. I think said they're going up when they're going. When Elon says their massive Capex at Space X is going all in on Nvidia. If you don't own Nvidia after that then you're like missing the boat. So it's nice to see the Microsoft, the Nvidia's other software type companies starting to get some love and I think the markets like peak open air valuations and maybe software Nvidia are going to start ramping up and getting more attention where I think as we evolve into this AI space I still think the LMS ultimately get commoditized and smart software companies are where the money's made.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Been a week to say the least for Nvidia. We just showed it Obviously this, this multi day run better than 11% now in the week. Good enough that you bought more.
Stephanie Link
Yeah.
Kevin Simpson
Like a teaser this morning.
Scott Wapner
Oh yeah, yeah. Kevin's it. Kevin's the one, he's the one who bought more Nvidia. I did tease it on, on, on the nine.
Jenny Harrington
Sure.
Scott Wapner
Everyone thought it was with cq. So tell me why it was you. Everybody knew. They looked at who was on today. They're like a process of elimination. They're like our first one, first one with the Sharpie. No.
Brent
All right, why?
Kevin Simpson
Well they are paying a dividend now so I think it's worth consideration. But this is the OG and it is the one stock that has continued to just make more and more and more money every single day but not have the love from a share price perspective. So I made the analogy. I was like in the old days from technology, everyone needed electricity, you needed the Internet. And now it's a question where how much AI does every company need? How much are they spending? And they just go up and down the stack where they are the primary player in this space. This is not a trade, this is an investment. I could go through all of the financials as to why we love the stock but we bought more at 218. We're going to own it for a long time. I think the numbers are going to be great but I wanted to get into it before earnings Scott, real quickly because they tend to report so late that you get a lot of the action from all of the other players beforehand.
Scott Wapner
We're still two weeks away I think, right. Aren't we? The week of it's like the 20, something like that. So your points will take and just try. I mean that's. They are the last of the, the, the biggest stocks in the market to
Kevin Simpson
report and I think the report is going to be awesome. But I think the move is going to happen before now we think about the move.
Stephanie Link
Well, I like it because obviously I just bought it for the first time ever. But I will say I have a Broadcom, so I've been very pleased with that. I bought it really because of valuation. You know, it's trading at a valuation that they haven't seen since 2019 at 18 times. It's actually cheaper than Colgate or Hershey or any of the Staples companies that are getting like 3% organic growth. This company just posted 85% percent total revenue growth year over year. And I think the visibility is outstanding given the backlog that they have.
Scott Wapner
You hope, right? You hope, you hope that their earnings, I think you hope their earnings optimism holds up, right?
Stephanie Link
I don't think it's hope. I think you look at their backlog and I think you look at their customer base and you listen to Elon Musk and what he's going to do. They haven't even started. And then at the same time you've got gross margins that are in the mid-70s, which are, which is really phenomenal. Their free cash flow is going to double next year. And that's why they're financing all these other companies and they're getting involved and they're benefiting from investing in some of these other companies. So I think they're really in the sweet spot. And valuation to me, given the visibility was just too compelling to, to ignore.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, you overlay that to the bounce back in momentum and they, they, they track each other pretty well. Momentum is having its best week since mid June. We're up 8% from the July 29th low. So what was a historic run up and a pretty historic and swift unwind has been a really nice bounce. That's helped the market too. And don't, don't discount that fact. Semis both the Sox and the smh. Best week for both since mid June as well. So that's a nice Tracker. Your Broadcom's up 9% this week alone. Marvell, which you have two is up 14%. Gains are pretty nice across the board. Microns a 5% winner week to date as well.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I mean, I didn't know how much momentum I actually had in my portfolio because I'm kind of a Garp investor. But the fundamentals are phenomenal. Well, no, I still am.
Scott Wapner
I know, but still.
Stephanie Link
I mean Broadcom is actually. I know, but you know, Broadcom and Nvidia both have underperformed the sectors the sector by 53% year to date. That was the other reason why it was so interesting to me. They were such laggards and I thought that can play catch up. Both have earnings power of $20 a share over time. They're. Broadcom's semiconductor pipeline is $100 billion. So I mean there's a lot of visibility. They're doing a lot of great things. Micron is a fairly new position. It's a volatile one for sure. So it's, it's a smaller position. But I just think the visibility is phenomenal that they have 00 billion in bookings between now and the end of the year take or pay contracts. So that's a lot of visibility. And, and I think they're really in the sweet spot in terms of this whole AI memory shortage. I mean we're short everything in this world and they're right there.
Brent
Wow.
Scott Wapner
Microchip technology. They're a big. Let's take a look at the stock on guidance on the guide. Jenny owns the preferred. That's a nice move right there in the stock.
Jenny Harrington
You know. And it kind of goes back to my super old 5 years ago thesis which we see everywhere, which is we're going to need every kind of chip, you know, forever. And so these are not the Nvidia chips. These are the little like nothing chips that are in things like this.
Daniel from Pretty Litter
Right.
Jenny Harrington
But every part of their business executed. Their industrial business was up 24%. Their data center was up 97%. Aerospace and defense up 45% just across the board. And you know, it's the underlying Micro. You know, I own the preferred but Microchip itself is trading at 20 times earnings. The preferred still has a 5.3% yield. There's still growth ahead in that and they're, and they're riding that wave. So I think the reality is too, you don't need to own everything. You can own certain, certain companies. You know, you don't have to own Nvidia. You don't have to own Microsoft. You can find opportunities other places. I ended up buying this last year in April when the tariff stuff went down and paid $41 a share for the preferred. It's at 71 now. And it was a nothing company that everybody thought was just sleepy. And there's opportunity everywhere. And I think this is a good reminder.
Scott Wapner
You mentioned Microsoft. I did. I did want to get to that because it's had a week, you know, in its own right up 8%. The stock had done virtually nothing. It was such a disappointer. Then the earnings report happened. The stock now has gotten a nice bubble. It'll stair step up a little bit every day, up eight and a half percent or so this week. Kev, you sold covered calls on it, right? Tell me.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I mean, this is a round trip. A few months ago, January, the stock was 550. Then it seemingly a few weeks later was 350. At the time of that repricing, we had a 590 call on it. So the stock gets down to 350. We were adding in the 370s, three 80s and then all of a sudden this report blew it out of the water. I mean, this exceeded any expectation that I could have dreamed of. So we wrote a 530 call. It expires in a couple of weeks. It's 8% out of the money, but we're bringing in 10% annualized premium. So when you have a stock that just made this kind of move, we're harvesting some of that volatility. No loss in conviction in the name whatsoever, but just trying to add a little alpha, a little premium on the edges.
Scott Wapner
Brennan almost feels like the street did lose conviction in the name just a little. And maybe it got its mojo back a bit with the earnings report. How do you feel about it since you own it?
Brennan
Yeah, I mean, well, I was on with you the day before earnings and I said I'm exhausted with the stock performance and actually with the company and the only reason I hadn't sold it is Amy Hood and Satya, which continue just to be a masterclass in a CEO CFO of a multitrillion dollar company. And I think that they did a great job of reading the room, of not doing what Google's doing, I'll say, of saying they're going to be frank free cash flow, that they're not going to the debt market. I believe Microsoft and J and J are the only triple A companies out there. And so. And then you have cloud revenue which had been going between 38 to 40. 38 to 40 come in at 43. And Amy guided upward. And so that to me is what I was saying earlier is that they're spending a lot on what? On capex for why? We're still going to figure that out. But you are seeing a revenue monetization in their cloud business and then Amazon and Google confirm the same thing. So I do think it's a rerating. I think people are looking at this in a new light. I will say, like with the departures at Google, you know, Microsoft and Google do have a bureaucracy issue and I think that's why you have to continue to watch the departures, leaving to go do their own thing because that bureaucracy ultimately I think hinders has hindered Microsoft. It's definitely hindered Google. And so I do think you can't ignore these departures, which we all kind of ignore, but I don't think we should.
Scott Wapner
Give me some on Palantir too. You want to sum up the kind of week that it's been for this name. Speaking of a stock being back, it's up again. It's a, it's a new high. Excuse me. It's not. I'm looking at something else. It's up 37 and a half percent though this week alone.
Brennan
Kind of like Microsoft, it was about 20 points below the 200 day. Looking terrible. I feel pretty confident you had a massive amount of short covering on those really solid earnings. I think Alec Harp, Alix Carp, people think he's screaming. He's not. He's just telling people what's happening. I think he's right. And you've had follow through to me, very important. There was a lot of short covering, great earnings. You've had follow through just like Microsoft all week. So I go back to this basket of software companies. Palantir is the original goat of AI software companies. They're model neutral. Once again, they don't care. But it's like safety, security, government, corporate. So I just think they're coming together. It's still an expensive stock, but I think it's been a wonderful rerating and a rerating of the technicals which could bring people like Jyoti and later on down the line, if the stock continues to stay well above that 200 day and continue to move higher.
Scott Wapner
I was staring at Snowflake. I wanted to do that next real quick. That's the new 52 week high today. It's up 11% on this week in this nice move back that we've had for software.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I mean it's up 47%. It's up like 20% in the last like three weeks last time we talked about it. Product revenue growth though, accelerated in last quarter and I think that they're positioned given all the new products that they have. It's actually going to do another 30 to 34% in product revenue growth. That and RPO's bookings are also growing double digits and margins are still. I think they still have upside as they cut costs on some areas and they have pricing power in others.
Scott Wapner
If software is acting better, then maybe private equity is acting better. That appears to be the case. Blue Owl, for example, up 14% this week. Their technology BDC up 18%. Some of the other names have had pretty decent moves this week as well. Aries, Blackstone, KKR is up a couple of percentage points. But I think there's got to be at least a little bit of correlation between stabilization and software and stabilization in some of these private equity stocks. By the way, speaking of private equity, if you look at the financials, they're going for their 10th straight week of gains. That's the longest streak since at least 89. Okay. So that, that area of the market has been back. Charles Schwab. Jenny, I'll come to you on that new record high this week as well.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, and the thing about Schwab that I think is interesting is it's trading at 14 and a half times earnings. The earnings growth is tremendous and it's up a lot, but it's not up as much as many of the financial services companies and the, and the big banks, which surprises me. So I think you've got an opportunity to get in here at a decent, at a decent valuation all. Also with the way the market is trading, with equity prices the way they are with volume, with, with, yeah. With volumes of volatility, you think that the shares would have performed better. So, you know, get in while you can.
Scott Wapner
All right, let's finish the, the A block here with certainly a stock that has garnered a lot of attention this week for a couple of different reasons. Not only the earnings, but the lockup expirations beginning yesterday. It's Space X obviously best week since going public. As I said, we just did have the lockup expiration and Stephanie Link bought more.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, well, my first buy point was a lot higher. The stock's down 40%.
Scott Wapner
And you knew that was going to happen though, right?
Stephanie Link
I did, but I wanted to have a toe in the water, Scott. I wanted to have a piece of this and I, and it is a very long term position. But the decline to me is just too tempting, especially after the earnings report which I thought were really was excellent in terms of earnings and revenues and all segments beat on the sales line. And even if it was up so much, and I know Kevin, you were talking about it earlier, I mean, total revenue of 92%. Okay. I understand why the stock fell on the news because of them spending. But they said the payback of that spend is going to be in the segment. It's going to be within a year. So to me, I don't, I wasn't happy about the spend short term, but Long term, this is what they have to do. And in the meantime, the profitability segment, the connectivity piece just blew it away. And they're doubling subscribers. Margins were really good. They've been on operating margin. So to me, all the story is intact. I just want it to be a little bit bigger on the decline.
Scott Wapner
Let me ask you this then. Yeah. If you, if you had a little bit of question internally about the degree of spend. The degree of spend is not going to go anywhere but high.
Stephanie Link
Sure.
Scott Wapner
Right. Because they are for all intents purpose a hyperscaler and they are going to, to show you very much that they're going to do that and they're going to continue to spend. Now they got upgraded today at Argus who was at hold. Now they're at by 160 is the price target. So you're, you're fine with what the trajectory of what they're going to do is going to be?
Stephanie Link
I mean you have to be. I am, I'm okay with it for the long term because I think it's going to yield returns eventually. We just saw with the hyperscalers, it may take some time to see those returns, to see those earnings, but the revenues are going to be there. I mean they're barely even spending now and they're producing the growth that they are. Scott. And they had 14 billion in cloud service agreements in this quarter alone. They're going to do 60 billion probably per year in these kind of agreements I think over time. So I think that's your real, your real upside.
Scott Wapner
Okay, we will, we'll take a break and then we will come back with our calls of the day. I've got a move I'm looking at to another one from Kevin Simpson over there in the healthcare space. Document that coming up.
Discover Cashback Card Advertiser
With the Discover Cashback card, it's payback time. When you earn cash back on everyday purchases, activate and earn 5% cash back at different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cash back at different places each quarter. Like grocery stores, on gas and at restaurants, it pays to discover terms apply. See discover.com 5 for details.
CDW Advertiser
When you partner with CDW, your people get more out of technology. CDW data experts are simplifying complex workloads with high speed AMD processors, which helps your project managers efficiently manage heavier workflows. Game designers level up creativity and scientists develop their next breakthrough. Amazing, right? Make amazing happen amd and cdw. Learn more@cdw.com amd
Daniel from Pretty Litter
hi, I'm Daniel, founder of Pretty Litter. Cats and cat owners deserve better than any old fashioned litter. That's why I teamed up with scientists and veterinarians to create Pretty Litter. Its innovative crystal formula has superior odor control and weighs up to 80% less than clay litter. Just one bag lasts up to a month, meaning fewer refills and less scooping. Pretty Litter even monitors health by changing colors to help detect early signs of potential illness. It's the world's smartest kitty litter.
Go to prettylitter.com and use code Pandora
Stephanie Link
for 20% off your first order.
Brent
Welcome back.
Scott Wapner
Let's take a look at Boeing today. The FAA ordering inspections of more than 400, 737 max jets for possible cracks. According to the Wall Street Journal. Stock's not doing too much on this news.
Stephanie Link
No, I mean it's a small setback. It's 471 planes out of 6,500 planes that they have in the 737 series. So not great news, but I think they will eventually get it fixed. In the meantime, the quarter that they reported last quarter, the turnaround is quite evident. They're increasing their production rates, they're increasing their free cash flow levels. Their margins are actually expanding again. So to me, an organic growth of 8%, to me, I think that is, this is the buy I think you don't want to touch. Honeywell Aerospace.
Scott Wapner
Oh, that's the one that had the big move yesterday.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, you don't go, you don't spin out two months ago, reiterate guide and then report earnings with a 25 cent mission.
Scott Wapner
Philippe came on closing bell yesterday and was like flabbergasted at how that could happen.
Stephanie Link
Right?
Scott Wapner
How does that happen?
Stephanie Link
They weren't coached well. And I think this management team needs to mature and learn. You under promise over deliver, But I mean 25 cents, you didn't know this to two months ago. So to me it's, it's just frustrating. I love spins, you know that, that's why I was taking a look at it. But I just don't like the credibility that was just lost overnight.
Scott Wapner
Okay. Netflix is called a buy today at Rothschild in Redburn. 93 bucks. Shares have derated from 47 times forward to 19 today. That was over the course of a year. So let's look at the one year then, please.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I don't think you need that kind of multiple, multiple expansion for the stock to recover. We actually added to it last week in our growth portfolio, sub 20x forward multiple. I think the stock is cheap. We love the story. It's now about content. I mean their content has lagged and they need to improve, they need to pick it up and I think they will. I totally agree with the call and I think we'll see the stock back there in the not too distant future.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so the Virginia governor says that she's going to intervene in the merger of Nextera and Dominion.
Jenny Harrington
Right.
Scott Wapner
You have both of these, don't you?
Jenny Harrington
I have both. So first of all, when Nextera announced that they were going to buy Dominion, there was no doubt that it wouldn't go down without a regulatory fight. And what happened was they made that announcement. Dominion shares basically went up 10%. NextEra shares went down 10% on average. I ended up buying the Nextera Convertible Preferred V. So it's got a 7.9% yield. And the calculus was the following. Look, if the merger does go through, that's great because what happened was it first of all highlighted Dominion, that it was undervalued, that, you know, that's why we got that pop. And we could get a little more. And if the merger does go through, then great, you've got better earnings. Nextera right now has like 8, 9% earnings growth ahead trades at about 18 times. So really fair valuation. And if the merger goes through, they've got synergies and those earning that earnings growth gets even richer. If it doesn't go through, fine, they lost 10% when it was is announced. If it doesn't go through, fine, then I get a 10% pop. You know, if the shares recover is
Scott Wapner
the move, is the fact that the stocks are both green today, the market saying we think this is just fine. This is, you know, some political bluster noise.
Jenny Harrington
That's right. There is just no way, there is no way that you bring two big utilities together. And there's not political noise. Especially with all the sensitivity right now highlighted by the data centers that there's that everyone has higher utility costs.
Scott Wapner
Sure, have to.
Jenny Harrington
It has to be fought, right? Like that's her job to fight for the people and highlight the fact that they can't have rising energy costs because of this.
Scott Wapner
Okay, Quanta Services, speaking of upgraded to overweight today at KeyBanc. You have that.
Stephanie Link
I was like why? Why now? I mean I own it, but I don't think I would add to it. I mean the company just had a blowout quarter though. So I understand we want to get on board. I would just wait for some weakness to cut or a pullback. I mean, earnings growing 70%, revenues of 41%, backlog up 59% percent just. These are big, big numbers. They are in the sweet spot of electrification, EVs and all of that.
Scott Wapner
Allstate downgraded to underweight. Target is at 250 at Wells Fargo. So growth is slowing. Margins are starting to compress.
Kevin Simpson
All fair, all fair. Comments. And if we look at the daily chart, you think we probably need to get out of this name the peak margins on are coming down. I would submit they probably are. If you stretch this back and you look at a one year chart, I mean this thing has been on fire, it's been on a tear. So if you're taking some profits up here and you tone down the estimates, I'm okay with that.
Scott Wapner
Well, this says take a lot of profits, like all of them.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, well, we're not, we're not doing that.
Scott Wapner
All right, let's just be clear. This isn't like a, hey, trim a little bit off the top of a huge winner. This is, and you just said what's, what's interesting to me is that you said it's, it's all fair. If you have peak, if you're having. Talking about peak margins and peak growth.
Kevin Simpson
Well, I would think that the acceleration that we've seen over the past month can't continue forever. I don't agree with the 250 price target, but I do agree with the fact that if you're at a peak margin, you're probably not going to go to the next peak. You're probably going to level off here. This is a durable earnings story. You don't need to sell the stock here. I think it can be higher a year into the future.
Scott Wapner
Okay, what about Fiserv? Target goes to 78 from 90 at Mizuho.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Today they still like it. They reiterate outperform.
Jenny Harrington
I don't know about that where it's on our chopping block, but it's very much like what Steph was saying about Honeywell Aerospace. If you're a new management team, maybe you get one, maybe two chances to guide down, reset the bar. But after that you'd better get it right. These guys have been in place for over a year now. They've lost credibility. Like you know the numbers, the numbers are still counting, compelling. And that's why, that's why there's still that good price target. So it trades at seven times as huge free cash flow. But you know, this is too much even for us. So we'll exit it. We're not exiting it today because there's still value there. We'll be out of it.
Scott Wapner
All right.
Jenny Harrington
Guess is within six months.
Scott Wapner
You let us know when we do have more committee moves coming up. I tease it already. Kevin Simpson. It's a health care name. He's doubling down on one of those names, which is at record highs. It's another teaser. The reveals next
Discover Cashback Card Advertiser
with the Discover Cashback card, it's payback time. When you earn cash back on everyday purchases, activate and earn 5% cash back at different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cash back at different places each quarter. Like grocery stores, on gas and at restaurants, it pays to discover terms apply. See discover.com 5 for details.
Daniel from Pretty Litter
Here's the thing about cyber threats. They don't clock out at five. They work weekends, holidays, probably while you're listening to this. That's why you need cdw. We bring together security technologies, strategies and solutions to gain clearer visibility into risk while strengthening resilience. So instead of chasing threats, you can focus on what matters most. We configure, optimize and deliver the tech that runs business. CDW make amazing happen.
Brent
Tyler Redick here from 2311 Racing and Bubba Wallace. You know what's the worst part of a race? A rain delay.
Scott Wapner
Sitting around waiting for the track to dry is dull.
Brent
But instead of waiting, we hang out with Chumba Casino Social casino slots, bingo, solitaire.
Scott Wapner
Plenty of fun to keep us entertained.
Brent
So why let a rain delay slow you down? Play now@chumbacasino.com
Scott Wapner
no purchase necessary. VGW Group void. We're prohibited by law. CTNC's 21/plus sponsored by Jumba Casino.
Brandon Gomez
We're back on HALFTIME report. I'm Brandon Gomez with the cnbc. In a NBC News update, a federal appeals court says President Trump must get approval from Congress before moving forward with his 400 million White House ballroom renovation. The court sided with historic preservationists and ordered construction to stop. The project is being built where the East Wing once stood. That order is on hold for two weeks, giving the administration time to appeal to the supreme court. At least seven people are dead after a 14 year old student opened fire at a high school outside Bangkok, Thailand. Officials say five school employees were killed and more than 20 people wounded. Authorities believe the teenager also killed his grandparents before the attack. Police say the teen then died by suicide. And ICE says all of its field officers will have body cameras by the end of September following pressure for greater accountability after recent fatal shootings. But the agency's policy gives its director broad discretion to withhold footage releasing Records only when officials determine doing so is in the best interest of ice. Scott, send it back to you.
Scott Wapner
Brandon, thanks so much. That's Brandon Gomez.
Brent
All right.
Scott Wapner
Another one of these Kevin Simpson moves today. Stock that hit a new record high yesterday. Right. It's in a space that's the top sector over the past three months, but then did virtually nothing over the last month. And it's Amgen. And you bought more. Tell me more.
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I'm hoping this is one of those stocks making new highs and goes higher. We didn't want to wait after the earnings for a pullback because the earnings were just so good. Repay the vanity. A bunch of their other new therapies have all been adding to this accretive profit margin. They still have maritime in the pipeline which would be a one month shot for weight loss if they can get there. But they beat on the top line. They beat on the bottom line. They raised guidance and I think that biotechs in general as well as health care can be some of the beneficiaries that most quickly from AI. So I'm excited about this name. We bought it post earnings and we tend to hold it for a long time.
Scott Wapner
Jenny Edgardeni says we're ready to rebound in health care. I mentioned again, you have to look at it a couple ways. Three months, great performance, top sector.
Jenny Harrington
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Over the last month though, it shows you how good it was in the first two months of the last three. Because in the last month it's done nothing. Right now it's primed for a rebound. You have some good exposure here.
Stephanie Link
What do you think?
Jenny Harrington
Yeah. And you know, I like looking at Bristol Myers is kind of the poster child for that where it's up 23%. I mean even my Pfizer stock is up 10% this year, which isn't bad. But so when I hear prime for a rebound, you know, these stocks have been under so much pressure for so long that let's hope that what we've seen this year so far is just the beginning of that rebound and there's room to go.
Scott Wapner
You got Bristol Myers, gsk, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Thermo, Fisher, Zimmer.
Jenny Harrington
And some of them are up 10% and some of them are up 23%. But they're all up nicely on the year.
Scott Wapner
So the rebounds already started 52 week high for Bristol.
Jenny Harrington
Right. And Bristol was an interesting one this week because there is all sorts of rumors about them potentially being acquired by AstraZeneca that turned out not to be true. But it Highlighted that there's value there. And you look at a company like Bristol, where we bought it two years ago, still only trading at less than 10 times earnings, they're producing 11 billion of free cash flow this year, 15 billion of free cash cash flow next year. They've got a five and change dividend yields. I'm sorry, a foreign change dividend yield still. And there's value there. And the investment thesis today is the same as it was two years ago, which is with that much cash flow, they will be able to buy their way to growth. And that's starting to happen even though they have all these patent expirations. And I think that's what you see more broadly in health care, Scott, is there's so much free cash being produced there and it's been undervalued and ignored and neglected. And so maybe now's the time. And that, that kind of feeds into the broader market narrative where you see. Where you see breadth, right? Finally people are saying, Hey, $11 billion today, that's valuable to me.
Scott Wapner
Show me Lilly, please. 1300. The new target at Argus, reiterated by their 1200, was the old. They're knocking up against that. What do you think?
Kevin Simpson
Absolutely. I mean, this is the highest quality health care company on the planet. I mentioned Maritide within, but Zeppelin, Manjaro, they are the players in the space. They continue to do everything right. What I like most about Lilly, it's not a one trick pony. There is a diversification underneath the surface here with their drug. I mean, with their entire drug catalog.
Scott Wapner
Okay, you're done. I'm just making sure.
Kevin Simpson
I mean, I don't know how much we want to talk about. Lily, it's a great stop.
Scott Wapner
Well, you can talk about till I tell you to stop. I wasn't sure you were done.
Kevin Simpson
Evaluation requires exceptional execution. I really like the name.
Scott Wapner
All right, Good stuff. Thank you. Natera New high, strong, strong numbers there. BTIG goes to 320 on that name there at 290 before. It's a little bit of a bump from here. What do you think?
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I mean, it was a really good quarter. They beat and raise their minimal residual disease test called Signa Terra delivered 34,000 tests in the quarter sequentially. Expectations were for 25,000. This is a total addressable market eventually to get to $7 billion. These guys are number one in that space. And I just, I love this management team too. They're just really. They're wonderful doing the right things in terms of investing where they should be.
Scott Wapner
Jenny, I ticked off the list of stocks that you own. And I, when I mentioned Roche, I didn't mention it. I got upgraded today to overweight. Morgan Stanley did that today. The target to 63 was 46. So it had blown past that prior target. They offer a strong mix of visible growth and pipeline upside.
Kevin Simpson
What do you think?
Jenny Harrington
Right. And they've got strong oncology. They've got everything going for them other than for us because it's been, because frankly it's done so well. It's up 13% year to date and we've had it for a while now we're down to a 3% dividend yield. So now our question becomes does it still fit the strategy? And that's always the challenge, which is once these companies start to really pick up steam, sometimes the valuation no longer makes sense for us. Trading at 16 times, great growth ahead, great stock, you know, but unfortunately we've got that discipline.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so we'll, we'll take a break. We told you at the top of the program about the huge move this week in Palantir. Can that momentum continue? We'll find out what the options market is saying because Oliver Renick is playing options action in that name next.
Brent
All right.
Scott Wapner
Heck of a week for palantir, up almost 39%. Oliver Renick, looking at the options activity from the CBO global markets in Chicago for where the bets are being placed now on whether this can continue. What do you see?
EY Parthenon Representative
Insatiable appetite for Palantir. Scott, the stock adding on another 14 bucks today, extending its rally to almost 40% this week. Options traders think it's the real deal piling into calls at a feverish pace. 1.1 million options plus have traded on Palantir for a total over $600 million in premium, almost 90% of which is tied to coin calls. Options volume is four times the 30 day average and Palantir is the fourth most traded stock in the market today after Tesla, Nvidia and SpaceX. This is a strong return to form after a rough year for Palantir. The biggest trader in the stock is also the second biggest trade in the entire market today. They sold $101 million of the 155 strike calls expiring September 18, but bought $110 million worth of the 175 strike calls expiring in December. It's a trade that fades some of this short term upward volatility but is not necessarily bearish. Scott?
Scott Wapner
Yeah, Oliver, thanks very much. Nice second sort of layer to Brin. What's been a really Big story this week. You have a reaction to what Oliver just told us?
Brennan
No, I think that's a good trade. Right. They're selling calls to fund the buying, the buying of the stock. And I think you've had this big run. It's going to settle in and then it can continue its upward trajectory. I do think Palantir, the Microsoft, the snowflakes, they are in this software type ecosystem. And I just think that these companies, the jury has said AI is not going to take out these companies. And a company like Palantir, I think the shorts have to be on the lookout because they continue to execute. So I like what Oliver said about the call, the call positioning. I do think it can definitely go higher later on this year after it digest this really big move over the last week.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, it's been a huge one. More than 38%. Brent, thank you. All right, Copper, new record high yesterday. Gold trying for its best week since January. Silver trying for its best week since February. Can the momentum in the metals continue? We'll trade that next. Welcome back. It's going to be the best week for the XME. That is the metals and mining index up 14%. Best week since March of 2022. What do you think of this? Why is this happening right now?
Stephanie Link
Do you think it's all the same trade? It's all the same trade.
Daniel from Pretty Litter
Right.
Stephanie Link
I mean it's electrification, it's back. Right. Is EVs are back. It's grid, it's power, it's anything a food chain related and well, at least copper and aluminum in my mind are going to be in deficits this year. And that's where I think is the most attractive. Less, less excited about gold and silver. Understand though that silver has an industrial component to it. So I can kind of figure that out a bit and get behind it. But I prefer copper. And Antifa gas has done really well in the past year and they're really the best run copper company.
Scott Wapner
Yeah. You have Alcoa too.
Stephanie Link
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Right. Antifagosta. Right.
Stephanie Link
Same thing.
Scott Wapner
Jenny, you have Freeport in Rio.
Jenny Harrington
Freeport. And just like Steph said, all roads lead to copper. Everywhere you look it's copper. Copper. And it's quietly risen to $6.60 this year. Freeport's up, up 30% year to date. But here's the thing. It's still only trading at 18 times earnings and it still has a 6% free cash flow year yield. So that's why I think the wind could stay at the back because they haven't gotten Silly.
Scott Wapner
Brent Yep.
Brennan
Well, I think two things. You know, fcx, which it got called away from me, does have a lot of resistance right at this level. I think with gold you have two things. It bounced off the 200 day last week, but don't forget we did have this yen intervention which is the third time this year we've happened. And so I do think there's this play in terms of just putting some probability of anything happening. Let's say a macro accident with gold bouncing off that 200 day right in the face of the yen intervention. I mean I own infl, which owns a basket of precious metals, base metals, energy names. And so to me that's a good way where I can own it over like over time. And I don't get like caught up if gold has a big drawdown or silver because they're diversified within energy base, base metals and precious metals.
Scott Wapner
Okay, quick break. We're back with finals. If it's Friday, we have the professor Jeremy Siegel on closing bell. Look forward to that. Mohamed El Erian with an op ed today in the FT that the market is misreading the new fence air. We'll discuss and debate that. Obviously. Warren Pies, Malcolm Etheridge, Chris Toomey are going to join us and we look forward to that. Bryn Final trade Netflix I think you
Brennan
can drift higher to about mid-80s by the year end.
Kevin Simpson
Kevin Simpson Amazon they're demonstrating how to make a return on their investments.
Scott Wapner
Rainy day Rum Raisin Tell the bro. Come on, tell your bro.
Jenny Harrington
Amcor 5.4% yield enough competitors have reported that they should have good numbers to Estee Lauder.
Scott Wapner
All right, I'll see you three.
Halftime Report Disclaimer Reader
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer
CDW Advertiser
when you partner with CDW, your people get more out of technology. CDW data experts are simplifying complex workloads with high speed AMD processors, which helps your project managers efficiently manage heavier workflows. Game designers level up creativity and scientists develop their next breakthrough. Amazing, right? Make amazing happen. AMD and CDW. Learn more@cdw.com AMD.
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Panel: Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson, Brennan
Date: August 7, 2026
Episode Theme:
A deep dive into the resurgent tech sector, with expert investment committee analysis of market momentum, earnings, sector rotations, and key stock moves. The discussion covers the "tech surge" that lifted the NASDAQ for its best week since mid-April, macroeconomic backdrops, and bullish versus cautious stances.
This episode zeros in on the recent tech-driven rally, examining whether gains are sustainable, the macro and earnings trends supporting the surge, and whether investors should buy, hold, or be cautious at current levels. The panel discusses key tech stocks and semiconductors, sector breadth, and the impact of macroeconomic data—including jobs, productivity, and inflation—on future market direction.
(01:00 - 05:55)
(05:23 - 06:04)
(07:01 - 08:38)
(09:12 - 16:24)
(16:34 - 23:45)
(21:44 - 23:24)
(23:24 - 25:39)
(27:36 - 33:21)
(36:21 - 41:33)
(41:37 - 43:47)
(43:47 - 46:12)
Stephanie Link on Productivity:
"The productivity is the important part... productivity grew last quarter 1.7%. But we're not even close to the peaks of productivity that we saw in the 50s and 60s." (02:57)
Jenny Harrington on Risk:
"So you're looking immediately ahead of you and then you're looking down the road. And when I look down the road, I have a lot of concern. But immediately here and now, today, fully invested. I love the breadth that we're seeing." (04:50)
Brent/Brennan on Software:
"Microsoft is like at the epicenter, the ultimate SaaS company... all these application companies...are going to be where you make money as these commodity models get commoditized." (09:38)
Kevin Simpson on Nvidia:
"This is the OG and it is the one stock that has continued to just make more and more and more money every single day but not have the love from a share price perspective... this is not a trade, this is an investment." (12:35)
Jenny Harrington on Stock Picking:
“You don't need to own everything. You can own certain companies... There's opportunity everywhere. And I think this is a good reminder.” (16:50)
Stephanie Link on SpaceX Spend:
"I wasn't happy about the spend short term, but Long term, this is what they have to do. And in the meantime, the profitability segment, the connectivity piece just blew it away." (23:51)
Kevin Simpson on Amgen and Biotech:
"We didn't want to wait after the earnings for a pullback because the earnings were just so good... I think that biotechs in general as well as health care can be some of beneficiaries that most quickly from AI." (36:37)
Jenny Harrington on Default Caution:
"Now our question becomes, does [Roche] still fit the strategy? That's always the challenge, which is once these companies start to really pick up steam, sometimes the valuation no longer makes sense for us." (40:34)
Jenny Harrington on Copper:
"All roads lead to copper. Everywhere you look it's copper. Copper. And it's quietly risen to $6.60 this year. Freeport's up, up 30% year to date." (45:03)
| Section | Topic/Speakers | Timestamp | |----------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-----------------| | Opening/Theme | Tech Surge, NASDAQ leads, macro backdrop | 01:00 | | Macro/Earnings Discussion | Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington | 01:55–05:55 | | Rates & Fed Outlook | Kevin Simpson | 07:01–08:38 | | Software/Semis Earnings | Brennan, Kevin Simpson, Stephanie Link | 09:12–16:24 | | Microsoft/Nvidia Deep Dive | Kevin, Stephanie, Jenny | 12:13–14:47 | | Microchip & Beyond | Jenny Harrington | 16:34–17:37 | | Private Equity/Financials | Scott, Jenny | 21:44–23:24 | | SpaceX Review | Stephanie Link, Scott | 23:45–25:39 | | Sector Calls/Upgrades | Stephanie, Jenny, Kevin | 27:36–33:21 | | Health Care/Biotech Rotation | Kevin, Jenny, Stephanie | 36:21–41:33 | | Palantir Options Analysis | Oliver Renick, Brennan | 41:36–43:47 | | Metals & Mining Scorecard | Stephanie, Jenny, Brennan | 43:47–46:12 | | Final Trades | All panelists | 46:38–46:54 |
Summary prepared for investors and listeners seeking to stay atop market-driving trends and leading stock strategies, even if they missed the live discussion.