Halftime Report: Trading the Trade War (04/23/25)
Release Date: April 23, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner | CNBC

Market Overview and Trade War Developments

Timestamp: 00:53 - 03:08

Scott Wapner opens the episode by addressing the current state of the markets amidst the evolving trade war between the United States and China. The NASDAQ is up nearly 500 points (approximately 3%), while the Dow has surged over 1,000 points before retracting slightly. Scott introduces the panel: Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, and Surat Sethi, who delve into the implications of recent political maneuvers on the markets.

Key Points:

• Trade War Rhetoric: President Trump's indications that China tariffs may be considerably reduced have created a "tonal change" in the trade dynamics.

• Market Reaction: Treasury Secretary's comments and the potential for halving tariffs have positively influenced investor sentiment, although volatility remains high.

Notable Quote: Joe Terranova highlights the significance of the shift, stating, “White House considers slashing China tariffs could be by half to de-escalate the trade war” (00:32).

Navigating Market Volatility

Timestamp: 03:08 - 12:33

Jenny Harrington emphasizes the challenges of short-selling in a volatile environment, cautioning against expecting consistent downside movements. The panel discusses technical indicators and strategic positioning amidst fluctuating tariffs and economic signals.

Key Points:

• Technical Analysis: Jenny references a chart indicating that the S&P 500's March low has now become the April ceiling, suggesting potential buying opportunities.

• Investment Strategies: Steve Weiss explains his approach of hedging with indices like QQQ or VOO instead of selling positions outright, allowing for flexibility in headline-driven markets.

Notable Quotes:

• Jenny Harrington: “With that being said, it still remains a highly volatile environment that dictates if you are active, you are trading” (03:03).

• Steve Weiss: “I'm not selling matter... I do have concerns... but I'm hedging rather than exiting positions entirely” (06:01).

Perspectives on the Trade War and Economic Outlook

Timestamp: 12:33 - 23:22

Joe Terranova brings in insights from industry leaders like Ken Griffin, who describe the trade war as having become a "nonsensical place" and express concerns about the U.S. eroding its global brand. The discussion pivots to the potential economic impacts, including reduced capital expenditures (CapEx) and consumer spending, which may drive the economy toward a recession.

Key Points:

• Economic Indicators: The trade war has led to a dramatic shock to confidence, affecting investment and spending.

• Investment Approaches: Scott Wapner advocates for seizing opportunities in bear markets, citing his investments in Ryman Hospitality Properties and Microchip Convertible Preferred as examples.

Notable Quotes:

• Ken Griffin (via Joe Terranova): “…the trade war has devolved into a nonsensical place and that the United States is eroding its brand” (07:54).

• Scott Wapner: “...I just get through it... there’s opportunity” (09:18).

Sector-Specific Insights and Stock Analysis

Timestamp: 23:22 - 39:05

The panel delves into various sectors impacted by the trade war, including data centers, healthcare, financials, and energy. Surat Sethi discusses the resilience in the financial sector, noting companies like Visa, MasterCard, and Travelers finding support despite tariff volatility. The conversation also covers the volatile nature of Bitcoin and its decoupling from traditional markets.

Key Points:

• Data Centers: Despite concerns about reduced investments from hyperscalers, demand remains strong with companies like Equinix being highlighted.

• Financials: Companies within the sector exhibit resilience, with strong performance from credit card holders and insurance firms.

• Energy Sector: Discussions around Chevron's yield and potential for acquisitions highlight differing strategies within the sector.

Notable Quotes:

• Surat Sethi on Financials: “Financials as a sector has less exposure to the tariff volatility... these stocks are finding support within the market” (30:05).

• Jenny Harrington on Data Centers: “...you have to really understand what you own in your portfolio” (13:54).

Cryptocurrency and Emerging Assets

Timestamp: 23:14 - 24:16

The episode touches upon the volatile nature of Bitcoin, which has recently plummeted from its highs but is showing signs of a potential rebound. Steve Weiss and Jenny Harrington discuss the challenges and opportunities within the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the lack of a fundamental business case and the risks associated with excessive concentration.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin’s Volatility: Despite its dip, Bitcoin approaches the $100k mark, raising questions about its stability and future trajectory.

• Regulatory Environment: Positive outlooks include potential favorable legislation and increased institutional support, while risks involve regulatory crackdowns and market squeezes.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss: “There’s still a huge component of the market that’s wrapped up in excessive risk and excessive risk taking” (23:54).

• Jenny Harrington: “It throws around... you have to step forward and take a little bit of risk” (24:25).

Berkshire Hathaway ETF and Investment Strategies

Timestamp: 34:14 - 37:33

Bob Pizzani introduces a new ETF by Vista Shares that allows investors to emulate Warren Buffett’s investment approach while targeting a 15% annual income. The ETF includes Berkshire Hathaway’s largest holdings and employs an option strategy to generate synthetic dividends.

Key Points:

• Diversification: The ETF offers exposure to a diversified portfolio modeled after Berkshire Hathaway's holdings, including Apple, Amazon, and financial institutions.

• Income Generation: By incorporating options, the ETF aims to provide a steady income stream, addressing Berkshire's lack of traditional dividends.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam Patty (Vista Shares CEO): “Stable, stable companies that are hopefully undervalued with that value tilt” (35:55).

• Bob Pizzani: “Berkshire’s attitude towards investing pays off this year” (35:32).

Political Headlines and Their Market Impact

Timestamp: 31:14 - 40:07

Silvana Hanau reports on significant political developments, including Senator Dick Durbin’s retirement and ongoing settlements with victims' families in Uvalde. These political shifts contribute to the broader market sentiment and investor uncertainty.

Key Points:

• Senate Shifts: Long-serving Senator Durbin’s retirement opens the field for new Democratic candidates, potentially impacting legislative priorities.

• Legal Settlements: The settlement in Uvalde underscores the intersection of politics and social issues affecting corporate sentiments.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Wapner: “The stock is still in the ETF. April 30, we rebalance” (19:48).

• Silvana Hanau: “Senator Dick Durbin... announcing he will retire after 44 years in Congress” (31:14).

Final Trades and Closing Insights

Timestamp: 40:07 - 47:25

In the final segment, the hosts discuss specific stock trades and earnings reports. Surat Sethi highlights his new position in Zoetis, while Jenny Harrington comments on Bristol Myers and CrowdStrike. The panel also addresses upcoming earnings for companies like Merck and Pepsi, emphasizing the importance of strategic investments amidst uncertainty.

Key Points:

• Stock Positions: The panel shares their latest trades, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.

• Earnings Reports: Anticipation builds around upcoming earnings calls, with emphasis on how companies navigate the current economic climate.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Wapner on United Rentals: “It's a permanent compounding poster child” (40:31).

• Jenny Harrington: “...you have to step forward and take a little bit of risk” (24:32).

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Timestamp: 47:25 - End

Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by reinforcing the importance of strategic investment amidst market volatility and trade tensions. The hosts encourage listeners to stay informed and adaptable, highlighting upcoming live coverage of the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting and other significant market events.

Key Points:

• Stay Informed: Continuous monitoring of market developments and political changes is crucial for investors.

• Adapt Strategies: Flexibility in investment approaches can help navigate the unpredictable trading environment influenced by the trade war.

Final Remarks: Scott emphasizes that investors should focus on long-term growth and seize opportunities presented by market fluctuations, rather than reacting impulsively to short-term volatility.

Note: This summary excludes advertisements and non-content segments to focus solely on the substantive discussions and analyses presented during the episode.