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Halftime Report
Trading the Trump Selloff 4/4/25
00:56:00
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss the market selloff as the Trump Tariffs weigh heavily on the major indices. The Committee share some of their portfolio moves as markets plummet with some members buying as the market continues to fall. And later, Josh Brown calls in with his take on the selloff and shares some moves he’s making. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:01]
Jim Cramer
What counts most to you? Maybe it's spending more time with the ones you love or maybe doing more of what you love to do. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. At Edward Jones, our dedicated financial advisors are people you can count on for financial strategies to help support what truly matters to you. Let's find your rich Edward Jones. Member SIPC.
- [00:31]
Steve Liesman
Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted?
- [00:39]
Scott Wapner
If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past.
- [00:42]
Steve Liesman
Discover is accepted at 99 of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.
- [00:59]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.
- [01:14]
Steve Weiss
You're listening to Halftime Report in progress.
- [01:18]
Bryn Talkington
Well, yes, I mean, I know they're contemplating and we don't comment on fiscal policy, but what I read is that they're contemplating, you know, making the tax cuts and jobs act cuts permanent and also perhaps some other things as well. We wouldn't be we have sort of a placeholder for that too, but that's really not ours to comment on. But that's what I was talking about. Yes.
- [01:41]
Steve Weiss
So I have a question from a friend in Milwaukee who said she has clients that have deals ready to go, businesses that are ready to launch from their garage to a private equity deal, and they're just stuck in their garage right now. How long do you think, what do you think the impact of the uncertainty these days will have on the private equity deals?
- [02:06]
Bryn Talkington
So again, we're hearing a lot of that. People are just, they're just kind of waiting and for clarity, waiting for clarity. So, and I can't tell you when that that will pass, but you know, ultimately it will pass. You know, we'll, we know that, you know, at a certain point we'll know enough to know what the new uncertainty will decline and we'll be able to see, you know, with real clarity what the policies are and what their effects are. So, but you're right, we hear the same thing from businesses and just from people that they're kind of waiting and seeing. There's a lot of waiting and seeing going on, including by us. And that just seems like the right thing to do at a Time of elevated uncertainty.
- [02:45]
Jim Cramer
What economic indicators are you watching right now? I mean, very famously you look at the CPE and obviously the CPI and things like that. But are there any economic indicators in this moment, in these circumstances that you are watching, focused on?
- [03:01]
Bryn Talkington
Sure.
- [03:01]
Jim Cramer
Interested in.
- [03:02]
Bryn Talkington
So the, you know, the basic two big data pools are the data around prices and around employment. And you know, we get, in the employment area, we get just really it's, that's an area where we actually get pretty good data. Although the survey response rates have been lower, nonetheless, we get a lot of different data. And it's not just unemployment, it's participation, it's by age group and things like that. It's wages, it's many, many different things. It's jobs, it's quits, all the job creation, quits, openings, all those things. So that's one thing. On inflation, we do, we target pce, personal consumption expenditure inflation, not cpi. And the two are broadly. They move in, they move together. But 25 years ago, the Fed switched to PC. The public looks at CPI. It's kind of a little bit of a thing, but because we think, you know, it's really just a better way to capture the inflation, the cost pressures that households and businesses feel, we think it's a better measure and that's what we look at. But they're not that different. I mean, they're just, they look at different measures. Ultimately, they're pretty close together, those things. You know, on growth, you look at what's happening with consumer spending. The economy is overwhelmingly driven by, by, by spend, by consumer spending. So you look at how are, you know, consumer surveys, how are they feeling, how are they spending? Sometimes the surveys are very negative, but they keep spending. That happens. That's been happening really for a while. People spent right through the pandemic and they spent right through this time of higher inflation. They kept spending and forecasters kept thinking like us, kept thinking that they would, that consumption would slow down. That's, that's a really critical thing. After that, business investment is a big chunk. And you look at that, and that is also susceptible to sentiment. You know, businesses, if they, if they don't know what to do, they're not going to do an acquisition or they're going to hold off on building a factory or a plant or hiring people, things like that. So we look at, I mean, I could go on for a long time. We look at a lot of data and we try to make sense. We also talk to people who are in the real economy. You know, I grew up My career was mostly in the private sector talking to, you know, to people who ran businesses. And for me, the story doesn't come together until I actually hear from people who are in the economy doing things and what they're feeling and seeing. And then it sort of fits together better.
- [05:22]
Jim Cramer
Is this like via the Beige Book.
- [05:23]
Bryn Talkington
Or the Beige Book? Thank you for mentioning the Beige Book and I hope you read it.
- [05:29]
Jim Cramer
I actually, I love the Beige Book.
- [05:30]
Bryn Talkington
See, that's great. Everyone should read the Beige Book. The Beige Book comes out sort, sort of mid FOMC cycle and it's all the 12 reserve banks and all of their incredible context, what they're saying about what's going on in the economy. So if you want to know, you know, you can look at the national data, but if you want to know what's going on in regions and at different industries, you look at the Beige Book. So it's really a critical, critical thing. And actually the Reserve bank system that we have is an enormous strength of the Federal Reserve System. We have these 12 reserve banks with their own, you know, economics departments and own participants on the fomc. So that's a great thing to look at.
- [06:06]
Steve Weiss
I'd like to ask you about another body of work that many of us know that you're familiar with, and that's the Grateful Death.
- [06:14]
Jim Cramer
So, question for you, sir.
- [06:16]
Steve Weiss
American Beauty or Terrapin Station?
- [06:19]
Bryn Talkington
American Beauty.
- [06:20]
Jim Cramer
Well, it's not even a process.
- [06:24]
Bryn Talkington
That's my era. That's my era.
- [06:26]
Steve Weiss
Working Man's dead.
- [06:27]
Bryn Talkington
Yes.
- [06:27]
Jim Cramer
Or Europe 72?
- [06:28]
Steve Liesman
Both.
- [06:29]
Bryn Talkington
Both. That's my era. We're in the same era. For me, it's late 60s to mid-70s. So you're touch of Gray.
- [06:35]
Steve Weiss
What do you think?
- [06:36]
Bryn Talkington
It was their own only hit, but it's a good song.
- [06:39]
Jim Cramer
Okay.
- [06:39]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, finally we're gonna do this.
- [06:42]
Jim Cramer
I feel like you're speaking another language.
- [06:45]
Steve Weiss
There's a well known Grateful Dead bootlegger who, with the, I believe the permission.
- [06:51]
Jim Cramer
Of the band Dix, picks who's put out.
- [06:55]
Steve Weiss
So what's your recommendation of those?
- [06:57]
Bryn Talkington
Humor hundreds of. I don't have any Dick's Picks, like I said, my real interest was late 60s to mid-70s. And I saw him a bunch of times and I know every note on every song from that era. But since then I've been busy actually.
- [07:14]
Scott Wapner
Well, we thank you for taking your.
- [07:15]
Jim Cramer
Time, taking time out of your schedule.
- [07:17]
Steve Weiss
To join us here and we appreciate your work.
- [07:19]
Bryn Talkington
Thank you very much. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, Jim.
- [07:28]
Scott Wapner
All right, I'll welcome all of you to the Halftime Report. Good afternoon. I'M Scott Wapner here, obviously at the New York Stock Exchange, just listening to the Fed chair there in Arlington, Virginia, reacting to those Trump tariffs. Just like the markets are Chair Powell saying the economy still in a good place, uncertainty is high and downside risks have risen too soon to say what the appropriate path of policy will be, that inflation is likely to rise because of the tariffs. But it is possible that the impact from those tariffs could only be temporary and that he thinks they are well positioned to wait. For further clarity, our senior economics reporter Steve Liesman, of course, watching and listening to all of that. What was your takeaway from a Fed chair, Steve, who seems to me to be content still to wait and see how all of this transpires?
- [08:17]
Steve Weiss
Well, look, he was dovish. If you were worried about a rate hike immediately, that's not happening. But I think he was more hawkish in two ways. The first is the market is pricing in and waiting for rate cuts. When he says inflation will be around for quarters from the tariffs, that tells you he needs to wait a little bit to see if it's temporary. But then the most important thing I thought was his really affirmative statement that he is not going to allow temporary inflation from tariffs to become permanent. And that that really is a sort of something he did not say at the last press conference or he didn't say as explicitly the last press conference. So I don't know if we have that sound available or not, Scott, if you want to hear. But I thought that was the most important thing that he said was that he's not going to let that means it's going to take some time for the Fed to figure out which way to go here. So the market very aggressive. What am I looking at here? I'll give you a current quote, 33% on May, it had been 48 that came down. Notice gold also came down as another sign that the market saw them as hawkish. And now you've got July 94% for that second cut and then for the fifth cut we had baked it in now just 37%. Look, the market got a lot more dovish in its outlook for the Fed, but that took a step back because of what Powell said here today.
- [09:34]
Scott Wapner
He just doesn't seem at the current time to be in any way flustered by any of this yet. And he certainly doesn't seem to be moved in any way by what the president posted on social media earlier this morning where he said this would be a, quote, perfect time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates he is always quote, unquote late. But he could now change his image and quickly. Energy prices are down, interest rates are down, inflation is down, even eggs are down, jobs are up, all within two months. A big win for America. Cut interest rates, Jerome, and stop playing politics.
- [10:12]
Steve Weiss
Steve, I think it's fascinating when I look at that tweet there, I guess that's what we still call it or an X or whatever it is. It was 1108 just moments before he came on. I would love to know if his aide showed him that tweet before he came on. My guess is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell smiled broadly and is basically ignoring it. I do not think Powell will be moved by President Trump and what he's saying. I do not think Powell can move and cut rates now, not with this inflationary impulse coming down the pike from these tariffs that could end up being temporary but ultimately have the danger. And that's one thing he talked about in this speech today, Scott, the danger that there could be a more persistent or ongoing inflationary impact from the tariffs. Here's what I'll guarantee you. At the end of the day, when Powell's term is up, we'll be talking about him having acted more like Paul Volcker than Arthur Burns, who is the one who accommodated the inflation of the 70s. I'm sure of that.
- [11:12]
Scott Wapner
Also reiterating, did the chair that he intends to serve out his term no matter what happens in the rhetoric between him and the president. But we'll see.
- [11:21]
Steve Weiss
But Scott, you have to have, I hope you have the conversation to what extent around the table there is the idea of the Fed to the rescue. Should the Fed come to the rescue, can it come to the rescue? If it came to the rescue, how much would it matter? Those are the three questions I'm asking myself and trying to wonder when it can, if it can, should it and will it matter?
- [11:46]
Scott Wapner
Well, that's why we're happy to have you to kick off our show because you've given us something to talk about here on the desk. Steve, thank you. Senior economics correspondent Steve Liesman reacting to the chair with us for the hour today, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal, Jason Snipe, Bryn Talkington Steve, I would turn to you, I think beyond where a Fed put might be to play off of what Steve was talking about. I think the greater conversation within the market universe is where's the Trump put at this particular time if things continue to deteriorate. The president doesn't seem to be very moved by any of this to this point, pulling into his golf club down in Florida earlier today while the markets are going down, saying that his policies will never change earlier as well. You can take from that whatever you will. But how would you react as a market participant who is watching stocks plunge yet again today?
- [12:46]
Steve Weiss
Well, here's how I reacted. So I have no market exposure at this point at all. I'm completely hedged out. So market goes up, I don't make money, Mark goes down, I don't lose money. As you know, since he was elected and I was look side eyed at this when I said very clearly that Trump will not be good for markets, will not be good for the economy, that's in fact turned out to be true. So the way I describe this is that, is that the US has gone from hunter to prey. And despite him being the great negotiator, which nobody's ever able to point out where he's been, a great negotiator, I could point to his purchase setting an all time high record for a Hotel at $400 million only to turn around and sell it at a loss at 325, only for those buyers to turn around, sell it for 600 as evidence that he's not. So what I mean by we've gone from hunter to prey is that he underestimated what his adversaries, which he views as I view as trading partners can do. So they've got their own constituencies so they cannot be viewed like a weak kneed law firm as kowtowing to the President because their held their referendum is by their people. So look, I think we've got real risks here. I think the market right now the average 25 year multiple is under 17 times. We have only begun to see, led by David Costin, a decline in earnings. If you put a 17 multiple on his, I think he's at about 2:46.
- [14:28]
Scott Wapner
No, he's 265 next year. For next year he's down 255, 69 for next year. I'm talking next year. Right, right, right. This year almost seems like, I mean.
- [14:36]
Steve Weiss
Well this year we're still early this year and there's so much that could happen and typically you would look at another year, but this is not a typical year in terms of the events that happen on a day to day basis that have to really inform your view rather than as Jim is likely to point out, and he's a good investor that the jobs number were strong. That's historic. Doesn't include the cuts. Doesn't include the cuts. We're going to see corporations. So the bottom line is I think that next stop could very well be 4,500. It could go lower. Right now, we're still trading near 20 times on a forward 12 basis. You trade at those extended multiples and they are historically extended. When you have an accommodative interest rate policy, when you have clear strategies and an economy that is still moving forward, here you've got the opposite. Stagnation remains the most important word. And to Steve's point, and Steve is must see TV because he's one of the best thinkers on the network, present company excluded.
- [15:34]
Scott Wapner
Thank you.
- [15:35]
Steve Weiss
Those are the questions. The Fed can't do anything. There is no Trump put. Trump's not going to back away. And if he does, it's not good either. It just breeds the uncertainty. So bottom line is I'd rather miss 10% up than catch another 10% down, because this is when you protect capital now, when you make bets because you think that's what your clients want you to do.
- [15:59]
Scott Wapner
Tony Pascarello's call of a week ago seems so prescient in terms of preservation of capital. Right. The game has changed. I'm paraphrasing from his note that he put out last week, or maybe it was at the beginning of this week, I don't remember. But the point was clear. Preservation of capital. The game has changed. A game in which. Jim. RBC's Lori Calvacena has now cut her S and P target for the second time. She's at 5550 for the year. UBS joins the parade of firms that have downgraded US Equities. They cut their price target as well. For the second time. They're at 5800. JP Morgan talks today about there will be blood, the odds of a global recession this year to 60%. Mohamed El Erian Uncomfortably high. The risks of recession. Jeremy Siegel, Biggest policy mistake in 95 years. Ed Yardeni. I pointed out earlier this week, you lose him, you lost it because he's, you know, he's just bullish. Getting harder to be optimistic, he said, when you lose. The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal, they've been critical of tariff policy from the outset. Quote, Mr. Trump is acting with little understanding about the damage his tariffs will cause. The, quote, unquote, disturbance might not be as little as he imagines. The FT says it's America's astonishing act of self harm. What do you do with all that? What do you do?
- [17:24]
Steve Liesman
I think what you do is you ask the question, what is the market pricing in. At this point in time, clearly the risks have risen extraordinarily. My take, and this is very subjective, is that today's actions combined with yesterday's action is the market's way of embracing all of the negative and not even the slightest possibility that this could work. What is this that I refer to? This is the new economic ideology. It's very clear what it is. I don't care whether you agree with it or not. The ideology is we're going to replace income and corporate taxes with tariffs, and we're going to do that in a context of a smaller government. I have no idea if that will work or not. Nor does anyone else. That's the bad news. The good news is we're going to find out. We're going to find out pretty quickly. As far as the Trump put goes, and I'm in agreement with you on this, Steve, I would not want to see the Trump put in play because America wants to right now, know what the rules of the road are and go forward with them. I was at a client dinner last night with 25 clients, many of whom were business owners, and most of them were talking about, okay, if these are the rules of the road, then let me adjust to it. Let me adjust production where it needs to be, Let me control costs where I can and move forward. That is American ingenuity. That is American drive. That is ingenuity and drive that far surpasses ingenuity and drive anywhere else in the world. It is what has always come to the rescue in moments like this. It may take time. It may take time. I'm not saying that today is the bottom, but I will say that down 15% in the S&P 500 is not a point at which I want to sell.
- [18:55]
Scott Wapner
There are some things, Brin, that investors are going to look at and say, you know, it's so bad, it's got to be good or close to it at this point. I point out your move today in Nike, down 15% this week, right in the crosshairs of tariffs related to China. And you bought it. You bought the stock. Why?
- [19:17]
Jim Cramer
Really? More Vietnam. More. I bought it yesterday. And really it's in relation to Vietnam. And so I think that whoever made that board that Trump had out should be fired with the math. Vietnam does not have a 90% tariff. That's absurd. They have a 5% tariff. And so what we have, we have to decide as a country is what do we actually want to manufacture here and what do we actually want to manufacture in great countries like Vietnam, Nike, Restoration Hardware, Wayfair all moved much of their manufacturing out of China during Trump's first presidency into Vietnam. Vietnam is happy to make these. Nike pays these people like five or six thousand dollars a year. They're happy to make them. And we do not want to export those jobs. My sense is there is going to be a reckoning between the US and Vietnam. And actually, I think 20 minutes ago Trump posted on his True Social that he just had a conversation with the General Secretary of Vietnam and they want to bring down their tariffs, which once again are 5%, not 90. And so to me, it's like a beaten up name. I just think it's overdone. I think the stock could trade back up to $70 pretty quickly because we do not want to import these types of manufacturing to America. No, Americans want those jobs. So to me, it was a trade. I think it's a fat pitch. I think Wayfair, Restoration Hardware, I think you're going to get some reprieve from these types of American companies doing the right thing.
- [20:47]
Scott Wapner
You got anything, Jason, on your, on your list? In the spirit of what Brin is doing and looking at in the market? What do you, what do you think? Yeah, so I mean, there's a couple of things for me when, as I, as it relates to retail, obviously you look at the RH blowout yesterday. I mean, the stock's down almost 40% in the last two days. You know, in American Wayfair, there's a number of names that I think have.
- [21:11]
Jason Snipe
Gotten really punched in the mouth for me.
- [21:14]
Scott Wapner
I think about Apple. Right. 90% of Apple's assembly and supply chains are in China. The stock was down almost 10% yesterday, is down a lot today, below 200 bucks. Right? Earlier.
- [21:25]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, it's telling a lot of pain. We came into this year talking about the blunders and AI and that was the concern, that was the weight on the stock.
- [21:33]
Scott Wapner
Then we start to look at the multiple and then we look at the earnings growth.
- [21:36]
Jason Snipe
When I.
- [21:37]
Scott Wapner
And obviously they've been moving their supply chains to India. They've been trying to figure out other things.
- [21:40]
Jason Snipe
But when I think about companies like that, they're the greatest companies in the world that sells premium products and have continued to monetize their services business.
- [21:49]
Scott Wapner
I think that this move is somewhat overblown.
- [21:53]
Jason Snipe
And those are the types of names.
- [21:54]
Scott Wapner
That we like to take. I mean, the MAG7 collectively yesterday lost $1 trillion in market cap. To Jason's point, a lot of these stocks have gotten obliterated off of their 52 week highs out of the MAG7 if you include Tesla, which is the worst by first far down 50% off its high. But Nvidia's 37 Metta is now 31% off of its high. Alphabet 28Amazon 27 Apple is 25% off of its high. Its market cap is now once again below $3 trillion. You do not think that these tech stocks have corrected enough. You told us before the show that you short the Q's, which one could surmise you think that this trade has a lot lower to go potentially.
- [22:41]
Steve Weiss
So I am short the Qs and I'm short the Qs as a hedge against my long exposure in Metta, my long exposure in some of the other Macs. But I did sell in video, I did sell Vertiv and I did sell Schneider Electric because, you know, economies are going down in there for a robust economy. Nvidia Invertive, which I just got back into was small positions and they were more trading positions. So. So I got stopped out of them at losses. Of course the stocks traded down through their stops, you know, overnight.
- [23:20]
Scott Wapner
And I remember Gerstner telling us yesterday, right Voltimeter saying that, you know, I was a buyer, I'm a buyer of Nvidia yesterday as this stock has gotten crushed in its, in its own right down 30% year to date. Traded horribly is as all of you know, broke below 100 bucks. It's at 9419 as we speak. You just, just not moved by, you know, those, those declines. Enough to know because I do an in video rather than selling out of it.
- [23:47]
Steve Weiss
No, because the narrative that I have is that we're going to recession. Trump will definitely be moralized for the only world leader to put the entire world into a global recession. And that is my concern. I think that's a more likely reality than anything else. In terms of Apple, you know, we've got it and this is with a lot of stocks and get. You're also a great investor, known you for a while, know that you think you know about things very clearly and make decisions for the long term. Here's how I look at it. We're in such a unique period of time and I said this the other day when people were saying, oh, this is going to be a buy the news eventually, but this is not a buy the news event. It wasn't because it wasn't a single instance like the financial crisis. We knew a massive injection of liquidity could cure that. We knew that that like Brexit, that that was a one event and they would be just. You knew what the clarity.
- [24:44]
Scott Wapner
We didn't, we didn't know in the depths of the financial crisis how true that a bazooka times a thousand worth of liquidity was going to come into the market. Which goes to the question I've asked people this week, right, in these types of times over the last two days, how much the market is down, right. It's the worst time in your head to buy.
- [25:09]
Steve Weiss
Right.
- [25:09]
Scott Wapner
You have to get beyond that. If you're a longer term investor and think that better things are coming down the road, the chances of you timing it perfectly are minuscule. But that's not what the game's about. You can't time it perfectly.
- [25:24]
Steve Weiss
No.
- [25:24]
Scott Wapner
Market's down a lot, right. In the last couple of days.
- [25:27]
Steve Weiss
And just to be clear, I was not predicting the bazooka. You know what I was saying? There are market clearing events like the bazooka that would be all clear. We have nothing here because of the mass uncertainty that's going to be ongoing. So, yes. So you think about these times and reflexively, okay, wow, the market's down, you know, down big. I should buy because I know in year to finish, Jim. But you could have made that case over the last month virtually any day and look where you are. Any sale you've made to this day has been a great sale. And my view is that any sale you make now is still going to be a good sale because the market is overvalued on any historical measure without taking into account that, contrary to what you said at your meeting is that there are no rules of the road that have yet been defined because those rules are back. There's no road because it changes every day.
- [26:20]
Steve Liesman
You made the position very clear. I'm going to take the other side, somewhat surprisingly right. Look, every time we have a big market downturn, the reason is always different and it's always unprecedented. You talk about COVID 19, Scott, you mentioned the great financial crisis. And honestly, the sentiment, the emails that were coming into me yesterday, the calls I was getting were frankly reminiscent of the fall of 2008. It's always unprecedented. But Scott, what you were referring to about the timing is something that I have said time and time again. I've said it on the show, I've said it to clients repeatedly. And I'm going to give you some stats right now. The 50 best days, which, you know, if you move, if you miss the best days, you cut your returns dramatically and they tend to come on the heels of absolutely terrible period of times. So the 50 best days since 1975, so over the last 50 years are preceded by an average downturn in the month preceding of 6.7%. An average downturn in the two months preceding 10.2%. It's, it's tautological. It is a historical truth. And those people who will say, well, this time is different, it's always different. It's, I've been doing this, I've been investing for 45, five years, okay, it is always unprecedented, it is always different. But what's not different are the figures that I just told you. And it's so hard to buy back in at times like these. That's why I don't try to sell out in time this well, Brin, you.
- [27:42]
Scott Wapner
Bought more of the jpq. Speaking of these big names in the market that got, have gotten crushed. And I know you wanted to take part in what we were just discussing. What's your point?
- [27:54]
Jim Cramer
Yeah, well, so JPQ is just the qqq. So whereas Steve would go short, you know, to hedge his technology exposure, I think JPQ sells well. I don't think it does sell calls against the queues. So the premium's going up. These are great companies. Again, we don't know the key right now. And so that's where the P is coming under question. But I think that to Jim's point, don't forget we don't have an autocracy here, okay? Trump just can't do what he wants. The Republican Congress has been incredibly quiet. I promise you they do not want to be one term congress people. And so as they go back home to their constituents, to small and medium sized business owners who actually take advantage of the global supply chains, I think level heads will prevail. And so I think if we were under a Xi Jinping regime, yes, you could say this narrative is negative. We're going into recession. We are not. And I think Trump ultimately has these growth policies. We have a Congress, don't forget. And I think they are very, very quickly going to change the narrative or they will just get crushed in the midterms, which I get is not until November. And so I do think this is an opportunity because whereas Covid March of 2020 and 9 11, Scott, those were exogenous events where none of us, there was no playbook here. This is a self inflicted wound, 100%. And so at this point I think that you have to think, think level heads will prevail. I totally get Steve's point. He didn't make a lot of good points But I think that this is an opportunity to start nibbling here and stepping in because we are not going to go into this global recession that he's going to torpedo in order to refinance rates 100, 200 basis points lower. I just don't buy into that.
- [29:33]
Scott Wapner
Okay. I mean, it remains to be seen and we're not going to know the answer to that question for, for many months. Speaking of things that are down a lot, you play off the tech names that I mentioned to you. The chips are down a bunch. Lam, Plied, kla, Tencor, Broadcom, Taiwan, semi. Taiwan, semi. What do we do with some of these names? You've got, you know, chip exposure, obviously.
- [29:59]
Jim Cramer
Yeah, yeah.
- [30:00]
Scott Wapner
I think for me, you know, taking the longer view, right. And thinking about Nvidia obviously, which is.
- [30:06]
Jason Snipe
Our largest semiconductor exposure and look at.
- [30:09]
Scott Wapner
The 30% drawdown we've obviously had throughout this year. You know, expert controls is obviously a.
- [30:14]
Jason Snipe
Concern coming into this year.
- [30:16]
Scott Wapner
You know, that has been at least for now. You know, semiconductors and big Pharma has.
- [30:22]
Jason Snipe
Been excluded from the tariff discussion.
- [30:24]
Scott Wapner
There will be something that will happen there.
- [30:27]
Jason Snipe
But when I, when I get past.
- [30:30]
Scott Wapner
The carnage and everything that's going on and I see through, see through the forest, I still like Nvidia.
- [30:35]
Jason Snipe
I still like the fundamental tailwinds that are there. I still like the AI story. I still like them as the belt wearing infrastructure for all that will happen in this space.
- [30:44]
Scott Wapner
And I perceive this as a longer.
- [30:46]
Jason Snipe
Term opportunity, even if you need to average down for the next few quarters or few months, just to update you.
- [30:52]
Scott Wapner
On where everything stands. At the moment we have a NASDAQ that is down by nearly 5% today, down more than 9% on the week. It's really been the epicenter of a lot of the selling. I should also point out to you that the Vix is above 40, that's a 35% jump today. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by about 1600. I do have some breaking news. I want to get to Steve Kovach with that. Steve?
- [31:24]
Bryn Talkington
Hey, Scott.
- [31:25]
Scott Wapner
I'm here at Microsoft's headquarters in Redmond, Washington. This is their 50th anniversary party. And part of this whole event is some new features for Copilot. That's of course the app that they use, the chatbot AI app they use competing as ChatGPT and Deep Seq and so many others. Two big features here to talk about.
- [31:44]
Steve Weiss
One is memory.
- [31:45]
Scott Wapner
This app can now remember a lot of personal details about you and use that in its answers to come back at you with and another one is actions. This is actually kind of the hottest area in artificial intelligence right now, this idea that agents can act on your behalf. And we have Microsoft partnering with a bunch of different partners here that will work with Copilot now. So you can it could take actions on your behalf, 1-800-flowers booking.com, openTable companies like that. So the idea here is Copilot can.
- [32:14]
Steve Weiss
Go out there and order your mom.
- [32:15]
Bryn Talkington
Flowers for Mother's Day, for example.
- [32:17]
Scott Wapner
I will note, though, that a lot of these features might sound old to people who have been tracking all these AI features. That's because it's largely reliant on OpenAI's technology. Some of these features were announced months ago by OpenAI to put in their own ChatGPT app. Microsoft, of course, has to wait for that to come out, put a little.
- [32:35]
Bryn Talkington
Bit of their own AI flavor on.
- [32:37]
Scott Wapner
Top of it, and then make it happen. At the same time, Microsoft is still ahead of some of the others. That includes Apple, which, remember they tried to have that personal Siri assistant that does much of what Microsoft is launching today. SCOTT and Microsoft is ahead there. Of course, Amazon had Alexa, which is.
- [32:54]
Bryn Talkington
Supposed to have rolled out last month.
- [32:56]
Scott Wapner
It seems to be a little stumbling out of the gate there. But look, this is a big launch for Microsoft on its 50th anniversary. And we're going to keep the coverage.
- [33:04]
Bryn Talkington
Going because over in Power Lunch we.
- [33:06]
Scott Wapner
Have our own Andrew Ross Sorkin. He's going to be speaking with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
- [33:11]
Bryn Talkington
You're not going to want to miss.
- [33:12]
Scott Wapner
That at 2:30pm Eastern about this 50th anniversary.
- [33:15]
Bryn Talkington
I'm sure they'll get into tariffs and so forth.
- [33:17]
Scott Wapner
And I'm going to be speaking with Microsoft CEO for Artificial Intelligence. That's Mustafa Suleiman on closing bell overtime. That'll be around 4:10pm Eastern about all these new copilot features, competition with OpenAI and so much more. Scott all right, Steve, good stuff. We'll look forward to all of that from you guys. That's Steve Kovach out there. As you see, with a lot of ownership of Microsoft, there's some thought that they were sort of first in, first out. The stock, the stock has not traded well, but it's traded better more recently than some of the others.
- [33:51]
Jim Cramer
It has.
- [33:51]
Scott Wapner
How would you view this? I mean, whether the 50th anniversary or these advancements related to AI and copilot move you in any way?
- [33:58]
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
- [33:58]
Scott Wapner
So I think, you know, as it relates to Copilot Obviously the story has.
- [34:02]
Steve Weiss
Been how have they been able to.
- [34:03]
Jason Snipe
Monetize Copilot, which obviously hasn't happened year to date.
- [34:06]
Scott Wapner
I think these new advancements as it.
- [34:08]
Jason Snipe
Relates to Copilot I think is a positive.
- [34:11]
Scott Wapner
And then broadly speaking, when I think about Microsoft, I just think about their product.
- [34:17]
Jason Snipe
Their suite of products are aimed for.
- [34:19]
Scott Wapner
Efficiency and they're the perfect set of products for me in this type of cycle. When folks and companies and small business.
- [34:27]
Jason Snipe
Enterprises are trying to figure out potentially how they need to cut costs, this is a company that they could turn to.
- [34:33]
Scott Wapner
Okay, thank you for that. We'll take a quick break. Josh Brown joins us on the other side. If you recall, yesterday on the program, he looked at the market sell off and the steep one that it was, and had a lot of things on his mind about what you could buy, what he was thinking about. He's made some moves, more than one. He'll tell you them next.
- [34:58]
Jim Cramer
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because MultiCare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?
- [35:31]
Steve Liesman
Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted?
- [35:37]
Scott Wapner
If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past.
- [35:40]
Steve Liesman
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, and every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the Now It Pays to Discover. Learn more at discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report as.
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- [37:12]
Scott Wapner
We're back with more breaking news. Our Becky Quick joins us now on the phone. Bex, what do we know?
- [37:18]
Jim Cramer
Hey, Scott. Just wanted to let everyone know that Berkshire Hathaway is now restored responding to a post that was reposted, a video that was reposted on Truth Social by Donald Trump this morning. The president put out or reposted a post that was originally posted on X yesterday by a user named American Papa Bear. He put out a video saying that Trump is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers, saying that President Trump is intentionally crashing the stock market because he wants to see lower interest rates and many other things that he thinks will come benefits that would come from that. As part of that video, it included some video, Warren Buffett, with the proclamation that Warren Buffett was saying that Trump was making the best economic moves he's seen in the last 50 years. Berkshire Hathaway responding to that this morning, saying that reports that are currently circulating on social media, including Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, all such reports are false. It was very brief statement from Berkshire, but I have just spoken with Warren Buffett. He says the reason that he is putting this out is he wants to make sure that in an age where misinformation can be blasted or around instantaneously, that they are very alert and critical in making sure they're knocking down misinformation. He says that he's not talking to anybody about anything related to the markets, the economy or tariffs and that he will not be doing that between now and the annual meeting for Berkshire Hathaway which takes place on Saturday, May 3. On Saturday, May 3, 8:30am they will hold that annual meeting that typically draws 40 or 45,000 people, maybe even more. Lots of people who will be watching will be broadcasting it not only on CNBC but on on cnbc.com but he will be taking questions from shareholders at that point. But he wants to make it very clear that anything you see purportedly on social media coming from Warren Buffett about the markets, about the economy, about what's happening with tariffs is not from him. He will not be making any commentary on that between now and the annual meeting on Saturday, May 3rd.
- [39:17]
Scott Wapner
Let me just follow up with you if I could, Becky, because nobody knows this man and his investing prowess over the last decade, at least as you it seems clear to me that they have maneuvered their way through these choppy markets better than most. They're up 11% is Berkshire year to date. A lot has been made of the fact that they've been sitting on a mountain of cash and when the markets were at the highs, they couldn't find really anything that looked attractive enough to them because of the fact that so many things were at high levels. They had taken down some of their positions in bank of America and Apple, for example. I'm just wondering from your own insight what you take away from the fact that they have been able and he has, which is why he is the oracle to begin with and the greatest investor who's ever lived to maneuver their way through times of turbulence and what you think it all says about what is happening at Berkshire Hathaway now.
- [40:18]
Jim Cramer
Well, look, he, he has done this in the past, said that he's going to be very patient, look for the slow pitches. He doesn't mind doing nothing for, for years at a time if that's what it takes. And that's certainly what it seems like recently. He'll say that he won't be able to time the market, that that's not his game. But he knows when stocks look expensive and you know, he knows when things look like bargains. And my read on this at least of the 300, what is it, $330 billion they've amassed sitting around 300 plus billion dollars is, is that, yeah, they're waiting for the slow pitch, ready to be doing things. And when you start to see activity like we've seen where stock markets start to drop with the S and P down 12% or 12, 12 and a quarter percent as of yesterday's close, then add on the losses from today. Sure. I would imagine that things start to look better at those prices. He's just not going to be somebody who overpays in his estimation for anything. He's not desperate to do things and will be there when he thinks the prices are right.
- [41:23]
Scott Wapner
We'll see what clarity we get out of the annual meeting, which is coming up, as you said. Thanks so much for coming on with that insight, Becky. Appreciate that.
- [41:30]
Jim Cramer
Thanks, Scott.
- [41:31]
Scott Wapner
All right. Josh Brown joins us now, by the way. I'll just get a comment from you too, Josh. We're going to get to your moves in a moment, but you are a shareholder in Berkshire Hathaway way and you have such deep knowledge as well about how they operate. And you know what he must be thinking at the current time, watching this kind of destruction that we've had over the last couple of days in this market.
- [41:53]
Jason Snipe
I would just say that whatever people are betting he would do is probably not what's going to happen. He has a tendency of surprising the market of late. He's not doing obvious things like adding to existing holdings. He the last major thing that we saw him do was acquire stakes in five Japanese trading firms. And that was so far off everyone's radar. I think he's up 50% on that basket. So it was a great move. It just, it didn't make the playbook of. Even though the most ardent Berkshire watchers. So don't play the game of thinking that you're going to think of what Warren Buffett might be thinking of because you'll probably be disappointed.
- [42:34]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, well, as I said, maybe we'll get some clarity on his direct thinking at the annual meeting. Let's get to you because yesterday you went through the market and you saw a lot of things that were up in a down day. You tried to think of things that might be able to work in this kind of disruptive environment. You bought Rocket companies. Rkt. Let's start there. Tell me more.
- [42:58]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, I bought in the pre market as soon as I was watching Squawk and heard Steve Liesman come out with the new market based projections of how many rate cuts we might get this year. The number, the probability of five rate cuts is now according to people in the bond market on the table. And I don't know if that's going to be the reality. And you know, it's so early in the year still and so much could happen. But just thinking about that the next, the next level is like, all right, well, who benefits the most if we were to see five Fed rate cuts or even directionally if we got three or four. And the answer is obvious, you're going to get a refi boom. You're going to get action in the existing home sales market. You're going to see people take advantage of that, especially if they're struggling in the economy. That's exactly when you would get a refi boom. Happens every time. So Rocket is uniquely positioned and they're very, they're very aggressively positioning themselves for what could be. They've announced two acquisitions in the last month. One of them, the other day is Mr. Cooper, which is one of the largest Mortgage servicing companies in the country. And the other is redfin, which gets 5.5 million unique users on the website. It's a business of selling leads to Realtors, but also that's a huge funnel for Rocket to sell mortgages to the consumer through. So this is the type of company that benefits if mortgage rates come down meaningfully and we get a refi boom and we break that logjam of all of these homes not on the market that need to be. So that seemed really obvious to me. I'm up in it right off the bat and I'm planning to stick with it.
- [44:46]
Scott Wapner
You've added as well to Amazon, Uber and Chevron. Give us a little insight.
- [44:52]
Jason Snipe
These are core positions, these aren't, these aren't short term trades. I think of all three of these companies as being companies that will be standing at the end of the trade war. I don't know that this is the bottom for any of them, but buying Amazon in a 30% drawdown seems like a smart decision if you're planning to be a long term shareholder. Chevron, the lower it goes, the higher the dividend goes. And I don't believe we're going to see the level of demand destruction for, for gasoline that the current price in crude would reflect. I think it's an overreaction. We've seen the price of oil go to negative numbers. So we know you can get overreactions in commodities. So I thought that was a layup. The stock's been hammered over the last couple of days and then Uber. Look, I think the stock's worth 100 bucks right now. So when they take it down from 75 to 65, I have to do something.
- [45:48]
Scott Wapner
I got you. You spoke a lot yesterday as well about some exchanges. You singled out the CME Group specifically. But that leads me to something you sold which is NASDAQ India.
- [45:59]
Jason Snipe
Q. Yeah, look, Nasdaq, I have a small gain and I've been in it for a long time. The original thesis was that 2025 would be the year we would see the return of the IPO and a lot more capital formation. And that's a really important part of their business. About half their business is like listings. So they also have some fintech and other stuff they do. But like the only way that stock works is if the capital markets are unfrozen and we get deal volume back. Obviously the events of the last couple of days, they have to change your mind about that. So I think NASDAQ's fine. Fantastic company. I may revisit but right now is the greatest hits moment. You want the greatest hits in the set list. You don't want your 9th or 10th or 11th best idea. You really want to be focused on things like long term core holdings that have come down 15, 20%, where if you're going to be in it anyway, you might as well have more stock and lower your average price.
- [46:57]
Scott Wapner
I want your take too. I see that J.P. morgan, maybe it's their trading desk, says that retail investors bought $4.7 billion worth of stocks on Thursday, the largest level over the past decade. So clearly there are others who see opportunity. And you know, I've had people tell me, well, one of the reasons why you haven't had a greater flush in the market, as bad as this has felt, is because retail hasn't thrown in the towel yet. And in fact, in fact, there are retail investors out there who saw the upset yesterday and maybe today as well, and say, like you, there's this opportunity to be had still.
- [47:37]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, I mean, I'm 48 years old. My time horizon is decades. So if I like a stock and I was comfortable owning it 15, 20% higher, like this is a, this is a no brainer. And I can confirm this from multiple sides. I spent two hours yesterday with Steve Quirk, who is the chief brokerage officer at Robinhood. Young people, they have 30 million clients. Their typical client is roughly 30 years old. These people are in the accumulation phase of their life. They should be buyers. We have a business at Red Holds called Good Advice where we cater to people with account sizes between 250,000 and a million. Those people are asking us how they can get more money into their, to their accounts. We're not seeing the panic. We are absolutely seeing inflows and people looking to take advantage of this dislocation that might not make sense for everyone. And of course, people that are already in retirement are probably not throwing as much money as they can into more stock exposure. But the demography of this country is important to understand. The most common age to be in America right now, I think this 30 and 31, meaning we have the most amount of people who are 30 and 31. They don't need to be tactical. They have the next 35 years to work and accumulate assets and make more money. Those people should be buying, and I'm pretty sure they are. I don't think that that cohort of the American investing public is looking at this like, oh no, the world is coming to an end.
- [49:12]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, Jimmy.
- [49:13]
Steve Liesman
Hey, Josh, it's Jimmy. I got a Question. I think this is important. I love what you're saying about the young people. Are they getting the message that you're supposed to go to your, your best hits as you just said it? I mean, that is so important. Quality is on. Everything's on sale. So why not buy quality? I hope they're not buying, you know, ZTE options, you know what I'm saying? Are you seeing them get the religion of buy quality?
- [49:36]
Jason Snipe
I think, I think one of the most interesting things that I've learned in the last, in the last day or so, and people at retail brokerages, not institutions, people at retail brokerages would confirm this. What's interesting is that in bull markets and when the tape is ripping higher, there is a much higher likelihood that retail players are buying individual stocks. When the, when we're in a huge correction or a massive bear market, it's the opposite. They go to ETFs. I don't know why that's the case. I just know that it is. And so, Jimmy, there might be a higher likelihood that somebody looking at the market down 3,000 points in the last 48 hours just says, you know what, I don't know what to do here, but I'm pretty sure the Qs are offering an opportunity or spy or maybe, you know, there's a tech ETF they like. So I think that is a version of going for quality because you have to assume the largest holdings in those ETFs are the highest quality companies in America.
- [50:38]
Scott Wapner
Josh, thanks. We'll see you next week. Good weekend to you. Appreciate you coming on and telling us that. Courtney Reagan has the headlines for us. Hey, Courtney.
- [50:47]
Jim Cramer
Hi, Scott. What a day. Well, at the top of the hour, a federal judge is set to hear the case of the man the Trump administration admitted it accidentally sent to a notorious prison in El Salvador. And court filings earlier this morning week, the White House said Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a protected legal resident who has lived in Maryland since 2011, was sent to El Salvador in March because of, quote, an administrative error. British police charged actor and comedian Russell Brand with rape and multiple counts of assault. Today, according to a statement, four different women have made a number of allegations dating back to a period between 1999 and 2005. Brand has previously denied allegations, saying that all his relationships have been consensual. And Disney paused the making of another live action princess movie as its Snow White remake flounders at the box office. The studio halted all pre production work on the remake of 2010's Tangled. This is According to multiple reports, Snow White opened last month to a $43 million box office and then dropped by 66% to just 14 million in its second weekend. Scott, back over to you.
- [51:49]
Scott Wapner
All right, Appreciate that. Thank you. Courtney Reagan, Much more on the sell off and the setup next.
- [52:02]
Jim Cramer
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single purpose, making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?
- [52:35]
Steve Liesman
Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted?
- [52:41]
Scott Wapner
If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past.
- [52:44]
Steve Liesman
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.
- [53:04]
Scott Wapner
All right, we are back. I have another move I want to get to. It's interesting to me given what you just said to Josh.
- [53:10]
Steve Liesman
Yeah.
- [53:10]
Scott Wapner
You're talking about I hope they're buying quality. I hope they're buying quality. You've been telling me for weeks that a certain stock is quality, despite all the noise around it. That's UnitedHealth. And now I find out you sold it.
- [53:22]
Steve Liesman
Yeah, I thought actually you were it.
- [53:24]
Scott Wapner
I didn't have time to do it then, so.
- [53:25]
Steve Liesman
No, no, no, I got you. And I thought, let me address this. I'm not talking out of both sides of my mouth when earlier in the show I said this is not a time to sell. This is an offensive move, okay? UnitedHealthcare is up 4% percent over the last two days while all sorts of quality companies are down 10, 15%. This is a move to free up some cash so I can buy things. I'm going to put that money back to work. I mean, Friday afternoon with a market tape like we've got. It might be this afternoon. I'll be on the show Monday. I'll tell you what it is, but this is a move of offense. Don't, don't mistake it. And sorry, UnitedHealthcare. You did great over the last two days. You did exactly what health care stocks are supposed, supposed to do in a downturn. You held up. I hate to shoot you, but there's just too many other opportunities And I need the cash.
- [54:08]
Steve Weiss
I love that long term approach.
- [54:11]
Scott Wapner
I think it remains probably a bad choice of words.
- [54:15]
Steve Liesman
What? What? Oh, God darn it.
- [54:17]
Scott Wapner
We'll move.
- [54:18]
Steve Liesman
I apologize. Look, I Sorry.
- [54:21]
Scott Wapner
All right. We do have breaking news of a another company that is looking at these markets and delaying it ipo. Leslie Picker joins us now. Leslie?
- [54:30]
Jim Cramer
Hey, Scott. Yeah, this one, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter, is Chime another fintech company reportedly delaying their ipo. At least they're filing their public filing to get that process really starting. These markets clearly kind of the nail in the coffin. Whether they're a temporary nail in the coffin for the capital markets or a more permanent one remains to be seen. But we've seen a whole host list.
- [54:54]
Steve Liesman
Of companies really kind of pausing their plans to go public.
- [54:58]
Jim Cramer
We had Klarna and StubHub, according to people familiar with the matter, that were set to start their roadshows just next week, now have put those plans on hold. Hinge Health is another one that has filed its perspective or its prospectus publicly. They had a kind of a longer timeline.
- [55:14]
Steve Liesman
They weren't looking to launch their roadshow.
- [55:16]
Jim Cramer
Until later in the month. So those plans are kind of up in the air, remain to be seen.
- [55:21]
Steve Liesman
Just as as we watch this market volatility unfold.
- [55:24]
Jim Cramer
And talking to sources, the key issue here is that investors are really so distracted by what's going on in their own portfolios, they don't have time in a market like this to take meetings and talk about prospective new issues, new new companies tapping the public markets. And so that dynamic is difficult.
- [55:40]
Steve Liesman
And then also, you know, just kind.
- [55:43]
Jim Cramer
Of the overall recent IPO market and how things have unfolded there, performance isn't amazing. So it's not one of those things where one could say that the IPO IPO window is dramatically open. But this is important for the revival of the capital markets. It's something I'm sure will be a topic of conversation as banks kick off earnings a week from today.
- [56:04]
Scott Wapner
Scott? All right, Leslie, thank you. That's Leslie Picker. On that note, Weiss, I mean, bank stocks have just gotten hammered and they're getting hammered again today, down 6 and 7% respectively, for a lot of the names there.
- [56:17]
Steve Weiss
Yeah. And I think part of that is not just the market, but credit quality. So I would look at some of the, you know, of the stocks that are out there based upon private lending and also what is typically, you know, higher risk, high yield lending, because you will see and we've heard them come on network A lot of these companies are going to have major, major liquor liquidity issues and some may go bankrupt. So it's not a time to be involved in that sector, the market.
- [56:44]
Scott Wapner
Okay. So we got the news there, the reaction here. I know you didn't mean it for it to come out that way. I just wanted to give you a chance to fix it. Just because I didn't want to hang there. Thank you like that. But we know, we know you, you're. We know certain times things come out of all of our mouths that we're like, I wish I could have that.
- [57:04]
Steve Liesman
And you know, I'm going to stewing about it all weekend.
- [57:05]
Scott Wapner
You don't have to because we just, we just took care of it. Okay. Leave us. Speaking of the weekend with something to think about for the other side.
- [57:13]
Steve Liesman
Yeah.
- [57:14]
Scott Wapner
How this day might end. What you'd be thinking about in the last couple that we have.
- [57:17]
Steve Liesman
I mean. Yeah. I think there's a great give and take between Steve and I and we've done this for 12 years now and you're seeing both sides of the coin. So Steve just said something and I think it was very insightful about credit quality. And you said something earlier about my talking about jobs reports which I didn't talk about. So this is where we are. Everything is on the come. In terms of the negative news, if, if the recession hits, if employment falls out of bed, then Citigroup is going to have a really big problem with the credit card receivables that it have. The problem I have with that is it's a hypothetical. It's an if right now. We just had a great jobs report. I get it, I get it. It's backwards looking. But do bear in mind, mind that this was a period of time where Doge was in full effect. We were supposed to be seeing the effects of layoffs at the government now and weekly jobless claims still hanging in there. I get it, Steve. I can feel you rustling. I get it. Things can change. They may change right now. They haven't changed is my point.
- [58:14]
Steve Weiss
Well, our job is to really look at as investors what can happen and then to handicap that probability. I believe put a much higher probability of that occurred. Now where can I be wrong? I could be wrong. Trump fires Nick, uses him. Scapegoat. Scapegoat and retreats from it. He's done that before. He just did it with deputy head of national security. So anything's on tape. I don't think that will cure this situation.
- [58:37]
Scott Wapner
All right, give me a final trade.
- [58:39]
Steve Liesman
To your Treasuries in light of what.
- [58:41]
Scott Wapner
I just said, J.P. morgan okay, again, those stocks have not traded well. Jason Snipe, what's yours? Amazon on 30% off the 52 week high. How about you Brent?
- [58:51]
Jim Cramer
Restoration Hardware, another name I like in my Vietnam basket.
- [58:54]
Scott Wapner
Well, the CEO by the way is going to be on with Jim tonight on Mad Money. So that's a must see interview given what the stock has done, the comments that he's already made this week around earnings. I'll see you on the closing bell. The exchanges now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [59:19]
Jim Cramer
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