Halftime Report: Trading the Turbulence (April 8, 2025)

Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Carrie Firestone, Jason Snipe, Kerry Firestone
Release Date: April 8, 2025

Overview:
In this episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner delves into the current state of the stock market, exploring the nuances of a potential bear market, the impact of U.S.-China tariffs, strategic stock picks amidst market volatility, and the interplay between political influences and investor sentiment. The panel of Wall Street experts offers detailed analysis, actionable investment strategies, and insightful commentary on navigating these turbulent financial times.

1. Market Rebound and Bear Market Analysis

Rebound in Stocks:
Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting a noticeable rebound in the stock market, noting that the S&P 500 is aiming for its first positive day in four sessions. Despite this uptick, uncertainty looms as yields rise and treasuries experience significant sell-offs.

Bear Market Definitions and Concerns:
The conversation transitions to the nature of the current market downturn. Josh Brown clarifies Goldman Sachs’ stance, explaining, “we're in an event-driven bear market triggered by the tariffs” (01:45). This distinguishes the current situation from a cyclical bear market, which is more influenced by broader economic factors.

Notable Quote:
Josh Brown emphasizes the precariousness of the situation: “If we think we're going into a recession and Larry Fink is saying the average CEO thinks there's a recession, well, here's what's to come” (02:32).

2. Impact of U.S.-China Tariffs

Tariff Implications:
The panel discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, highlighting how tariffs are affecting various sectors. Scott Wapner references statements from influential figures like Larry Fink and the repercussions of tariffs on global trade dynamics.

Political and Economic Fallout:
Kerry Firestone adds a political dimension, suggesting that ongoing market struggles could influence the upcoming midterm elections: “If we’re in a bear market... you don't win re-election as an incumbent” (12:56).

Notable Quote:
Scott Wapner questions the strategic reasoning behind the tariffs: “wrecking your own market and your own economy is an interesting negotiating strategy” (06:03).

3. Strategic Stock Picks Amidst Volatility

Amazon (AMZN):
Jason Snipe discusses buying Amazon during its 28% decline, citing its robust revenue model that relies on dollar sales rather than unit sales, making it resilient against tariffs. Josh Brown concurs, stating, “I bought some Amazon on Friday... I will be justified in having added to it” (08:45).

Apple (AAPL):
The conversation shifts to Apple, which has seen a substantial market cap loss. Jason Snipe expresses skepticism about Apple’s prospects in the current environment, noting, “This is just not where I want to be in this moment” (18:42).

Applied Materials (AMAT):
Jason introduces Applied Materials as a strategic buy, attributing optimism to its pivotal role in the semiconductor industry and AI-driven chip demand: “They are primed to have a big reversal” (20:44).

UnitedHealth (UNH):
Jenny Harrington highlights UnitedHealth’s strong earnings and increased Medicare reimbursement rates, positioning it as a defensive stock with solid growth prospects: “This is a signal to the market that the administration is supporting managed care businesses” (26:44).

American Express (AXP):
Jason Snipe discusses adding to American Express during its downturn, praising its high-end customer base and resilience against economic headwinds: “They have high-end customers... it's an enormous level of insulation from a worst” (30:11).

Ryman Hospitality Partners (RHP):
Kerry Firestone introduces RHP as a compelling buy due to its ownership of significant non-gaming conference centers, emphasizing its stable income and defensive nature: “It's a company I want to be investing in. It'll produce the income my clients expect me to” (36:52).

Notable Quote:
Jenny Harrington elaborates on dividend stocks’ reliability: “When you're buying dividend income stocks in an uncertain period like now, some portion of your return is certain” (40:06).

4. Political Influence on Market Stability

Influential Voices and Market Sentiment:
The panel examines how influential investors and political figures, such as Ray Dalio and Ken Griffin, are voicing concerns about tariffs and their long-term economic impacts. Kerry Firestone suggests that these voices may not significantly sway investor sentiment but could pressure political entities to address market issues: “They’re not influencing how investors think... but they're speaking up on their behalf” (12:50).

5. Dividend Investing Insights and New Book Announcement

Kerry Firestone’s New Book:
Kerry announces her new book, Dividend Investing: Dependable Income to Navigate All Market Environments, providing a comprehensive guide on constructing and managing a dividend-focused portfolio. She shares insights from her experiences, including successful and unsuccessful investments, emphasizing the importance of reliable income streams in volatile markets.

Top Dividend Picks:
Kerry outlines her top three dividend stocks: Kinder Morgan, Verizon, and Bristol Myers, highlighting their strong yields and insulation from tariff-related disruptions:

• Kinder Morgan: 4.5% yield
• Verizon: 6.5% yield
• Bristol Myers Squibb: 4.5% yield

Notable Quote:
Kerry Firestone explains the strategic selection: “There is enormous economic sense insensitivity here and relative to the broader market, tariff insensitivity” (40:15).

6. Closing Market Remarks and Updates

Market Volatility and Headline Impact:
Scott Wapner and the panel discuss the day’s market volatility, influenced by both accurate and erroneous reports about tariff implementations. Eamon Javers clarifies misinformation regarding the effective time of tariffs, reinforcing the scheduled midnight implementation: “She says that all of the China tariffs are scheduled to go into effect tonight at midnight” (43:43).

Additional Stock Movements:
The discussion covers additional stock performances, including:

• Netflix (NFLX): Identified as a top pick due to its defensive nature and strong earnings performance: “Netflix has been a great stock... I continue to really like this stock in this environment” (47:29).

• Otis Worldwide and 3M: Highlighted as core defensive stocks with stable business models and maintenance-driven income streams: “Maintenance contracts which cannot be canceled, 87% of the company's net income” (49:00).

Final Thoughts:
Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by emphasizing the importance of strategic stock selection and staying informed amidst ongoing market turbulence. The panel underscores the value of defensive investments and the need for adaptability in investment strategies.

Notable Quote:
Josh Brown reinforces the defensive strategy: “You might get a bigger return. But on dividend stocks, some portion is certain” (32:38).

Conclusion:
This episode of Halftime Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market landscape, offering listeners valuable insights into navigating a potential bear market, the ramifications of international trade policies, and strategic investment opportunities. The expert panel underscores the importance of diversification, defensive stock selection, and staying informed to mitigate risks in uncertain economic times.

Listen Live:
Catch the episode live on weekdays at 12-1 PM ET on CNBC TV or subscribe to the Halftime Report podcast for on-demand access.