Trading the Unsettled Markets 3/14/25

Summary

Halftime Report: Trading the Unsettled Markets (March 14, 2025)
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, Amy Raskin, Rob Seachin

Overview
In the March 14, 2025 episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner and a panel of top investors—including Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, Amy Raskin, and Rob Seachin—delved into the complexities of trading in today’s unsettled markets. The discussion covered a wide range of topics, from current market rebounds to the potential impact of upcoming policy changes, providing listeners with in-depth analysis and actionable insights.

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1. Market Overview and Current Trends

Scott Wapner opened the discussion by highlighting the day's market performance:

"Stocks are getting a nice bounce today. Importantly, the S&P back above 5600, the Dow back above 41K, the Russell back above 2000." ([00:59])

The panel acknowledged the positive movement, with several indices rebounding above crucial support levels. However, skepticism remained about the sustainability of this rally.

2. Sustainability of the Market Rally

Steve Weiss emphasized caution regarding the current market highs:

"Jonathan Krinski of BTIG likes what he sees so far, says good start with extremely strong upside volume. Piper Sandler has been talking about a good buying opportunity as is Wolf Research says the conditions are therefore a counter trend rally." ([01:20])

The consensus was that while the bounce offers potential, it might not indicate a long-term trend reversal without underlying strength.

3. Impact of Policy Changes and Tariffs

Josh Brown raised concerns about upcoming policy decisions:

"April 2nd is going to be when they come in with this study on reciprocal tariffs. So that could potentially be another ugly day." ([02:06])

He predicted increased volatility ahead of the study and highlighted the uncertain economic landscape, including delays in key economic indicators like PPI and CPI.

4. The MAG7 Stocks and Market Sentiment

The discussion shifted to the MAG7—major tech stocks that have significantly influenced market trends. Josh Brown noted:

"The MAG7, which haven't been so magnificent this year, are the place to go because they've got fortress balance sheets now." ([02:32])

However, Scott Wapner countered with the substantial losses these stocks have incurred:

"$2.7 trillion in market value from the MAG7 is what has been lost over the last three weeks." ([03:00])

The panel debated whether the MAG7 could rebound or if their decline signaled deeper market issues.

5. Dow Theory and Recession Indicators

Steve Weiss provided an analysis of Dow Theory:

"The Dow Jones transports have fallen 20% from a high 15 times. Most recently it happened in 2022... Only six times out of those 15 episodes has a negative 20% reading on the Dow Jones transports led to a recession." ([07:15])

He cautioned against overinterpreting these indicators, suggesting that a transport downturn doesn't always herald a recession.

6. Investor Sentiment and Political Influence

The conversation touched on the influence of political actions on market sentiment. Josh Brown expressed his views on the Trump administration's policies:

"There is absolute certainty here... policies are a little disjointed, a little incoherent right now, but there's a direct impact on the market." ([12:21])

Amy Raskin advised against letting political emotions drive investment decisions:

"I want to caution our viewers to not let your political emotions get too involved. It's not political, it's policy." ([13:18])

7. Navigating Market Volatility: Strategies and Stock Picks

Scott Wapner and the panel discussed strategies to navigate the current volatility, emphasizing diversification and selective stock picking. Notable stock recommendations included:

• Shake Shack (Josh Brown): Identified as an overweight position due to its solid fundamentals despite recent declines.

• Starbucks (Josh Brown): Continues to be a favored stock on the best list, supported by strong brand resilience.

• 3M (Steve Weiss & Amy Raskin): Highlighted as a top industrial pick with compelling profit improvement opportunities ([31:33]).

8. Sector Analysis: Financials and International Markets

The panel analyzed the financial sector and international markets, noting:

"Santander is trading at 7 times earnings and is still 50% cheaper than the US market." ([24:27])

Steve Weiss pointed out that diversified portfolios are holding up well despite sector-specific downturns, particularly in tech-heavy indices.

9. All-Weather Portfolio Recommendations

Amy Raskin introduced the concept of an all-weather portfolio, selecting stocks based on strong fundamentals despite current market dislocations. Key picks included:

• NRG and Vistra: Focused on data center power consumption trades.

• IBM and ASML: Viewed as long-term holds with involvement in AI and other growth sectors.

"These stocks have the ability to outperform over the next 12 months irrespective of how the uncertainty resolves." ([37:36])

10. Upcoming Corporate Events and Stock Setups

The panel previewed upcoming corporate events that could influence stock performance:

• Qualcomm: Shareholders meeting discussed as a potential market mover ([42:49]).

• Disney and Adobe: Both facing turbulent stock performances with upcoming strategic initiatives expected to impact future results ([43:21]).

• Nvidia: Highlighted for its Quantum Day and potential breakthroughs in quantum technologies ([44:35]).

11. Closing Remarks and Final Insights

In conclusion, the panel maintained a balanced view, recognizing both the opportunities and risks in the current market environment. Josh Brown emphasized the importance of focusing on policy over politics, while Steve Weiss reassured investors about the resilience of diversified portfolios.

"Most investors are hanging in there and doing just fine. Developed markets look good and there are sectors within the US that are hanging in there." ([38:01])

Scott Wapner wrapped up the episode by encouraging listeners to stay informed and adaptable as markets continue to navigate through uncertainty.

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Notable Quotes:

• Josh Brown ([02:06]): "April 2nd is going to be when they come in with this study on reciprocal tariffs. So that could potentially be another ugly day."

• Steve Weiss ([07:15]): "Only six times out of those 15 episodes has a negative 20% reading on the Dow Jones transports led to a recession."

• Amy Raskin ([13:18]): "I want to caution our viewers to not let your political emotions get too involved. It's not political, it's policy."

• Steve Weiss ([32:45]): "The money's not going nowhere. The money's not sitting in money market funds, at least not for long."

• Amy Raskin ([37:36]): "These stocks have the ability to outperform over the next 12 months irrespective of how the uncertainty resolves."

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Conclusion
The Halftime Report episode provided a comprehensive analysis of the current unsettled markets, blending expert insights with strategic stock recommendations. The panel underscored the importance of diversification, cautious optimism, and a focus on policy-driven investment decisions to navigate the ongoing market volatility.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report of Scott Wapner, front and center this hour navigating this unsettled market. Stocks getting a nice bounce today. We will discuss and debate all of it with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour this Friday, Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, Amy Raskin, Rob Seachen, we'll show you the markets. The guys just said we're at the highs of the session. So there's a lot of green on the board today. Importantly, the S and p back above 5600, the Dow back above 41K, the Russell back above 2000. Weiss. Jonathan Krinski of BTIG likes what he sees so far, says good start with extremely strong upside volume. Piper Sandler has been talking about a good buying opportunity as is Wolf. Research says the conditions are therefore a counter trend rally. We will see how much strength there in fact is behind this rally and if it can last.

[Josh Brown]

So I don't disagree with that and say, look, the market's due to pop. Nothing goes up a straight line. Nothing goes down a straight line. But what I'd say is this. You've got April 2nd coming along and April 2nd is going to be when they come in with this study that they've done on reciprocal tariffs. So that could potentially be another ugly day. Another ugly day leading up to it. So, look, this can go for a little while. It's no news market. We're out of PPI, we're out of CPI, etc. We don't have jobs, of course, until, until the first week, first Friday next month. So I think can rally. And I still believe that the Mag 7, which haven't been so magnificent this year, are the place to go because again, they've got fortress balance sheets now. The only wrinkle there is that, is that as we heard on this network from Lina Khan's replacement, he's not changing his view. As a matter of fact, he's doubling down on it. And that means that the middlemen that, you know, PBMs, physician, pharmacy, benefit managers, they're not the target they need to be. It's going to be tech. So I believe that what they're actually trying to do is extract the, the same number of fines that the EU has, which means billions of dollars that they can afford from the tech companies.

[Scott Wapner]

Fines are the thing that we've always talked about. I mean, $2.7 trillion in market value from the MAG7 is what has been lost, Josh, over the last three weeks. So you have some calling for the conditions being ripe for a bounce. And maybe that's in fact what we're seeing on the screen. As I said, we'll see how long it lasts. I know you're looking at Dow theory, the transports telling a more bearish story. Michael Hartnett of B of A today looks at the flows and says the correction's not quite over. He said bottom line up in stocks, up in yields, up in dollar, up in smoke thus far in 25, not including today, obviously. And that sentiment and positioning suggested we're not quite done yet, as US equities show, according to them, the biggest outflows year to date.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, look, I think it's premature to say it's over. It would be nice if it were over and maybe it is. The VIX is cooling off a little bit and we've gone like, you know, a few hours without anything new on the tariffs that the market doesn't have to spend today pricing in. But I think what, what you want to do here with the Dow theory stuff, and I brought a couple of charts because I think this is really important. This is the next thing that they're going to trot out to try to scare you into believing that a recession is like a foregone conclusion. And I think it's way premature. So the Dow theory talk is starting up and the technicians are starting to remind people when we made record highs in November after the election, what was really great about that moment is that not only did the Dow industrials make new highs around Thanksgiving, but at the same time the Dow Jones transportation stocks were also making new highs. And that's what the technicians refer to as confirmation. And it worked. You could continue to stay long for another month and a half or so. The problem is in mid February, the Dow went for another new high. The S and P actually got one. The Dow failed. And while it failed, the Dow transports were already in a pullback and did not confirm that new attempt at a high. So now here we are. You've got the DJT basically in like an 18 and a half percent drawdown, going for a full bear market in the transports. And I think that's what you're going to hear next. Should, should this volatility persist, they're going to say, oh no, the transports are in a bear market. It won't be long before the Dow Jones follows. It won't be long before we're in recession. So this is what I want to tell the viewers before that talk starts back to 1977. The Dow Jones transports have fallen 20% from a high 15 times. Most recently it happened in 2022. It was down 29% at its lowest point. The most important thing to know is that this phenomenon has not been a great tell that recession was coming. Only six times out of those 15 episodes has a negative 20% reading on the Dow Jones transports led to a recession. And we've had four of those episodes going back to the gfc. We really haven't had a recession since, unless you count the two months of, of the pandemic. So we've had more times with a down 20% transports without recession than with one over the last 50 years. And, and so if we get there and if they start putting out these notes, Dow transport, Dow theory, predicting recession. Please take a deep breath. I know it's coming, but I want you to be armed with that context. More times than not, it's not a recession.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Rob Hartnett, also at B of A suggests as he, as I told you, they say, correction, not quite over. You want to buy the S and P at 5,300, so about 300 points lower than here. The, the bottom line of all this, even if we get, you know, a bounce here and it's a little lasting and we don't have a recession, is just how all of this has caught people really off guard. You have the Journal headline today, how Wall street and Business got Trump Wrong. I spoke with an executive yesterday at one well known investment firm, a person who supports the President, who supports the President's agenda. And they have grown more negative on the economy, on the stock market because of the chaotic and disjointed way. They say that much of this tariff stuff's been handled and managed. It's a fact because they told me that to my face. Kramer talked today about amateur hour. It's resulted in a drag on consumer sentiment and business sentiment. You got the sentiment number today was ugly. It was a huge miss. Goldman Sachs is CEO David Solomon in his annual letter talking about the discussion around tariffs may weigh on corporate sentiment and the impact on bottom lines could be significant. What are you supposed to do in what might be a bounceable market against the backdrop which is still uncertain and unsettled and probably more negative than not, at least in the near term.

[Amy Raskin]

Right. I think it was about positioning coming in. We had thought that positioning coming in kind of discounted a certain Trump outcome and we were worried that it would create a lot of volatility if that outcome did not meet expectations. Surprise, that's where we are today. We also reduced risk in a lot of the high momentum names alongside of that stayed invested, but reduced risk. And what you've seen is a lot of value names. A lot of names that were a little less expensive have dramatically outperformed the high beta names as some of the air has come out of this market. Listen, markets hate uncertainty. We know that. And the messaging has certainly been tough to decipher. And so we suspect getting back to these levels that we talked about with Krinski, we suspect that we'll probably test 5450, 300. We think that could happen. But when you look at a lot of the indicators when markets are off as much as they've been and certainly the absolute levels aren't, we haven't, we haven't gotten valuations to correct that much. We're not off 20% like we were in 16, like we were in 18, like we were in 22, where you saw a lot of those metrics really spike. But the put call metrics yesterday spiked a lot. It's why when we saw this pullback below the 200 day moving average that Steve and I were talking on the show about adding in video and doing things like that, and you know, we got a 10% bounce here in a couple days. Altimeter was doing the same thing. So it's about being in an athletic stance Right. Making sure that you can take advantage of these. You're not going to perfectly time the bottom. Anybody that waits for that, that's fool's gold. You're not going to get.

[Scott Wapner]

The problem is. Well, let me just throw it to you and I want to hear from Amy first, twice, if you don't mind. Athletic stance versus fetal position.

[Rob Seachin]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

And, and a lot of investors came into this year in that athletic stance, ready to sprint and now they're in the fetal position. Gold 3000, first time ever. That's a good tell of sort of where global sentiment has gone about the US Market. What do you say?

[Rob Seachin]

I think Rob's right. People came into this year very optimistic. I think overly so. We're seeing that now. We're getting a lot of calls from clients who are very, very concerned. And it's a 10% drawdown. It's not that, you know, big of a drawdown in the scheme of things, but it's happening very quickly. It's happening in the biggest stocks more than any of the other stocks, which are not supposed to be tariff related stocks. So you're sort of hearing that this is a tariff related sell off, but the sell offs really coming in the AI related names. And I think there's a lot of reasons for that. But. So, yeah, I don't think this is over. I think we are oversold. We're due for a bounce. Sure, we'll get it. But the US consumer, as you pointed out, is weakening and these headlines don't make things better because they come home and they see the market's down 3%. Oh, 60 plus percent of Americans own stocks.

[Scott Wapner]

Sorry, what are you doing?

[Josh Brown]

So I was making sure I was on the right camera. So, so there is. I agree with everything you said and let's not forget we had a nice bounce yesterday until we did. But I'm going to take issue with one thing you said, which is the market hates uncertainty. Of course it does. But I believe there's absolute certainty here and I'm not one of those. And I took a lot of guff for it for saying that Trump, you know, second, Trump 2.0 is going to be positive. I knew it was going to be negative because I had the history of that behind me. So there is absolute.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I mean, come on, let's, let's be clear too though. 50 days in might be a little early to declare. I knew that Trump 2.0 was going to be negative.

[Josh Brown]

I'm declaring it's now.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, it started out, but the market's a negative. There's no question about that.

[Josh Brown]

But, but here's the point. Here's the point. The point is that it was chaotic in the first administration and he had in the first administration people that would actually stand up to him. He has in this administration nobody who.

[Amy Raskin]

Will stand up to this is.

[Josh Brown]

These are sick. Bash. But let me just finish, Rob, let me finish with second. I think there's absolute certainty in that there is issues here and that it is amateur hour and that you come out from saying, from him saying, you know, one minute we're going to raise tariffs 200. So everything's a knee jerk reaction out of anger, out of his weak personality that is in fact infecting the market. So that's my certainty.

[Amy Raskin]

I want to caution our viewers to not let your political emotions get too. It's not political.

[Josh Brown]

I was a registered Republican until you.

[Amy Raskin]

That's great. I can tell you you're not that now.

[Rob Seachin]

Okay. Not true.

[Josh Brown]

I hate Harris, I hate Biden. They were disasters. But here we've got a proven disaster. So we see what's happening.

[Amy Raskin]

Rob, I think it's a little early. I think it's a little early. I would just also judge the entire.

[Scott Wapner]

Careful on the road. You're, you're going down with why it's.

[Josh Brown]

Been the right road.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, as I said before, here's the thing. Hold on. As I've said before on the other program that I have the great privilege of hosting, one thing that makes us this CNBC name up there special is we focus on the policy, not the politics. At least we try our best. Okay?

[Josh Brown]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

This market is going to be driven by policy, not politics. I want the conversation to be driven in the same fashion.

[Josh Brown]

And I'm talking about the policy. Here's the issue. The issue is you can't disagree with Trump without somebody saying and with his policies without somebody saying, oh, you're a Democrat.

[Amy Raskin]

Steve, Steve, can I add something to that? That is not focusing on the policy. That is focusing on the delivery of the. Hold on, Steve. That is focusing on the delivery of the message of what the strategy is going to be. And yes, it's a little, it's a little disjointed, a little incoherent right now. But you are definitely in that statement not focused on the policy. And I don't want to get into that debate.

[Josh Brown]

Let me ask you this question. Let me ask you this. When you go out, you fire without regard to their employees importance to the agency that they're at with that regard.

[Amy Raskin]

That'S again, hold on. That's again a style. A style.

[Josh Brown]

It's not a style point. That's policy. You're saying we're firing these people for you. We don't want your input head of fda. We don't want your input head of dod. You know we're going to fire them for you.

[Amy Raskin]

I don't want to get, I don't want to get into political debate. The policy is skinny. Hold on the policy.

[Steve Weiss]

This is going to be the last point of government.

[Amy Raskin]

The policy is skinning down government. I happen to agree with you. Okay, well, that's the policy.

[Scott Wapner]

So the next step, I think in all of this is the idea of whether at some point there is a Trump put. The Treasury Secretary on this network said there's not. Barclays today says don't count on that. Now, you know you're getting a nice bounce today. Today. If it continues to get hot and heated and the market and the economy look like they're going into a darker place, maybe there is back to the market. Forget all that because absent a Trump put, maybe what you need most of all is stabilization from the mega caps. As has already been mentioned here, five of the Mag Sevens are in a bear Market. Josh Brown. Nvidia's 21% off of its high high. Some of the other stocks are 21, 18% and so forth. Tesla's obviously much worse off of its high than all of that. Apple is that suddenly at a crossroads now, is that a problem for the market? Yes, it's getting a bounce today. Nvidia's target gets lower today. Alphabet's target gets lower today. Tesla's target gets lower today. What about this notion that at the very minimum, to have any sort of stabilizing effect on the market, you need these stocks to stabilize more than any others?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I think there's some truth to that. Look, when these stocks get sold, this is my personal opinion and people could disagree with it and I can't prove it and they can't prove I'm wrong. I don't think that people sit in cash when they sell Apple. I think they sit in cash for 15 minutes and then they look around and they say, all right, what are we buying? So when these stocks get sold, these are, these are trillion dollar market cap stocks that have lost trillions of dollars collectively as a group. The money's not going nowhere. The money's not sitting in money market funds, at least not for long. So it's not necessarily going to kill the market if these stocks markets can't find buyers and continue to drift lower. What we can't have is this sustainable every single day. The cues down 1% or more, which Bespoke Investment Group pointed out Yesterday we had 16 consecutive days of a 1% or greater intraday loss for the QS. That never happens. That's abnormal. And the pace of that can can't continue. So I don't know that we need these stocks to rally back to highs in order for the market to find its footing. I think we're finding leadership in areas of, of, of the market that we haven't really been looking in recent years. Health care being a great example. I also want to point out we're talking to clients yesterday. People are reading the news, S and P Correction Official Negative 10% and then we tell them that their portfolio doesn't look like that and that the German DAX is up 19% year to date and that emerging markets are higher on the year and gold is up and bonds are doing great and people like, oh, I thought it was so much worse. So we could have a weak S and P. We could have these Mag 7 names continue to trade lower and bleed market cap. But I just want to remind people the people selling those stocks are buying other stocks, they're buying other asset classes. And I think that's what's keeping diversified portfolios in pretty good shape. I know Rob Seatgen would attest to that. Looking across the portfolios at his firm. You talk to a financial advisor, wealth manager. Right now it doesn't feel as bad as the headlines make it seem.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, Amy, I mean you have Nvidia, they have a big event next week on the idea that you've got to get stabilizing in those names, in some of the high momentum and growth names which have looked horrible, absent today. What do you think?

[Rob Seachin]

Yes, I agree with Josh. I don't. I'm not expecting these names to come back. If you look at free cash, you're.

[Scott Wapner]

Not expecting these names to come back.

[Rob Seachin]

Not in a big way. I don't. If you look at free cash flow in Q4 of this last year versus the year prior for the Mag 7X Nvidia, it's down. The Capex spending is has ramped up to such a degree that people are starting to say, okay, show me the revenue associated associated with this spending and I don't think you're going to get it anytime soon. So Nvidia is a little bit of an exception, but I think it's all wrapped together again. I do think there's like the tariffs are getting a lot of press but there's skepticism about the return on this investment that I think is warranted and I think Josh is right. The money's coming out and it's going to Europe and foreign money is coming out of our market and foreign money really boosted the passive investment strategy which healthy stock. So I don't see. I know our clients who yet last year said don't you dare sell my Nvidia are like okay, if it bounces you can take a little off the table, you know. So I think there's been a mind shift around these, around these stocks that I don't think is going to change anytime very soon. I don't see where the money's coming in for that.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I mean there's been a pretty big shift in multiples in these names. I read through through them yesterday and I don't have them in front of my face right now but they have corrected down the scale considerably to where Malcolm Etheridge bought Nvidia for the first time ever the other day. He was on closing bell with me yesterday and told me as much. Joe had added to Amazon the other day and told our viewers as much. That's what people wanted isn't it? Multiples to come in a little bit.

[Amy Raskin]

And we've owned these, we've owned them underweight to the indices. We're overweight. Metta and Google Metal Metta by far our biggest weighting. Apple and Microsoft were neutral. Apple you know has some, some issues that some of the others don't. We're underweight Amazon and Nvidia. But Scott, we've been talking about buying those. We bought Amazon early this year because it trades at a discount. Is its history quite significantly we've been buying in video I think any time in video trades to a price level where it makes sense and we don't own Tesla. And here, here's the thing. I think everybody paints these with the same brush. These are fundamentally different businesses that get wrapped together because of the way markets are constructed right now. You can buy some of these names very, very attractively given their longer term fundamentals. I mean mean Nvidia is cheap relative to its history. Assuming that you know the earnings hold up there's no competitive threat, there's no threat to exports but those are the things that the news gives you an opportunity to buy. I'm not just buying the Mag 7.

[Scott Wapner]

Well what about the financials for, for for example second worst sector in was.

[Josh Brown]

That great buy Goldman agree here a.

[Scott Wapner]

Great buy right Here.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, agree position for me. Look I do think that, that eventually the markets come back meaning the secondary market, the IPO market, M& A and Goldman is the one that's going to benefit the most from it. Not only that, I believe that they with JP Morgan have some of the best risk controls but within those risk controls it's not doing nothing, it's deciding where you're going to allocate your risk capital that will provide the biggest return with the commensurate risk that they're willing to tolerate. So look Goldman just has the deepest bench far and away and I think it's good time stock's really been sold off. Do I think it got a little ahead of itself? Absolutely.

[Amy Raskin]

They're still in an uptrend touching the 200 day moving averages. Financials are still in an uptrend.

[Scott Wapner]

Amy, go ahead.

[Rob Seachin]

And you know it's a better buy. Santander 7 times earnings. 5 years of double digit growth expect us to continue almost no non performing loans, you know, loan book growing nicely. So yes, I don't disagree with you on Goldman but I also think there's a lot of opportunities outside the.

[Scott Wapner]

These trades are certainly feeling like they're. I'm not suggesting they're too crowded, overcrowded or anything of the like but now everybody's talking about it. European banks, European markets over us. Where are we in that in that trade?

[Josh Brown]

You know, keep them mind a lot of money has gone there and you could argue that there's been so much of momentum shift into those names that maybe it's a little late, maybe you want to wait for it to come back a little bit. So I don't know the answer to that question.

[Rob Seachin]

On a long term trend it's really not. The European market is still 50% cheaper than the US market. Well it should be cheaper because now it's dissimilar growth rates and even on a like for like basis. Look at Santander versus the banks. Look at Novo Nordisk Real Acor versus Marriott on a stock for stock basis Almost the exact same company with the exact same end exposure. Similar growth rates are trading at a much cheaper value.

[Josh Brown]

US market always traded.

[Amy Raskin]

She brings up a great point and I think positioning is really important. Here we are at an inflection point where we're getting ready with international markets to move into an uptrend. We haven't broken through it. We've hit, we've hit it a couple times. If we break through that uptrend I think that's viable.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm waiting they look like they are. I mean, if you look at.

[Amy Raskin]

Technically, they're not.

[Scott Wapner]

I know, but if you look at a chart, you know, of, I don't know, the German market, for example. Yeah, yeah. Straight up into the.

[Amy Raskin]

I'm talking MSCI world.

[Josh Brown]

Right.

[Amy Raskin]

You look at that, you're starting to get to a place where you're testing new norms.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh, this is something you've been talking about for weeks.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, well, look, I think. I think one of the most interesting things for all the people that have issues with the way Trump and Elon are going about what they're doing, and I totally get it, and I don't dismiss that, and I'm going to stay away from the political side of this. From a markets standpoint, the dollar is strong. So if we thought that the world was looking at this and saying, oh, America is in trouble, well, it was weakening.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, it had been on a pretty. It had pretty significant lower in part because of everything we talked about 24 minutes ago.

[Steve Weiss]

I understand. But the dollar overall is strong. And I think when you look at the opportunity to invest internationally, people. So people watching this right now that haven't been around for 25 years, they've like, really never seen this. But if you think about the lost decade from 2000 to 2009, we came out of this period of record high stock valuations, not just NASDAQ bubble. The whole S and P was extraordinarily priced. And we spent 10 years basically with a little bit of earnings growth. Two big crashes in the stock market market and an S and P that flatlined over 10 years. You got nothing for all that aggravation. But you made money in Europe and you made money actually in US Small caps, and you made money in emerging markets. You did really well in commodities. So the idea of the diversified portfolio is always having to say you're sorry because something's always lagging, but never having to say you're sorry. Because if your whole portfolio right now is mag7, your most of your stocks are in 15, 20% drawdowns. I just don't think that's the way people are invested right now. Most people understand they have to have asset classes away from S&P 500, and they do. So, you know, it's really a very particular type of trader who's. Who's been hurt by what's happened in the last month. And it's these little pods at some of the bigger hedge funds where they specialize in momentum. It's retail investors with their first Robinhood account who've never really traded through a correction like I get it, there are people that this is really problematic for, but most investors are hanging in there and doing just fine. Developed markets look good and there are sectors within the US that are hanging in there and don't look like Tesla and Nvidia.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, quick break. We come back. We will do our calls of the day, including a name that one firm says is the most, at least one of the most compelling opportunities they've seen in more than 20 years covering industrial stocks. We'll tell you which one next.

[Bank of America Representative]

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[Scott Wapner]

We'Re back. Let's do some calls of the day Shake Shack And Starbucks because both were reiterated overweight at Barclays. Josh Brown owns Shake Shack, as you know, and Starbucks is on his best stocks list that he pointed out once again yesterday. Josh.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, so consumer discretionary stocks in general have not held up well because the consumer, the survey data at least, has been coming in weaker and weaker and a lot of downside surprises. And these stocks get hit. So shock is down 7% over the last week, 20% over the last month. Month. But nothing fundamentally has changed with its business. And right now it's selling at an RSI of about 30. So relative strength at 30 or lower is considered pretty oversold. Not an area where historically it's great to be liquidating stocks. That being said, it's kind of trendless. I wouldn't say that this necessarily represents some sort of like perfect opportunity because it could chop around in the zone for a while. So I'm a long term investor. I'm not terribly focused about what happens over the next week or two. I know people are. So I wouldn't say like, yeah, this is a layup. Buy it right here if your intention is to trade it. If you're an investor. I love it here.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's focus on 3M, which has been named a top industrial pick at UBS. As they say, it is one of the most compelling non volume driven profit improvement opportunities we've seen in our 20 years of covering industrial companies. Companies they like, the CEO hitting all the right notes they say is going to translate to revenue growth acceleration in each of the next three years. Josh, take that one and then Rob you on it as well.

[Steve Weiss]

Look, I just, I think that we're in this place now where so much of what's happening with these stocks is about sentiment and people trying to anticipate some, some sort of massive cut to earnings which we really haven't seen for full year estimates. So the best thing I could say at this moment is you take a situation like this and you have an opportunity to buy something that has been maybe not all the way de risked, but somewhat de risked by the fact that people are shooting first and then waiting for this other shoe to drop. And it may, but it just hasn't happened yet. So that's the way I'm looking at not just this, but a whole range of situations out there in the market.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Rob.

[Amy Raskin]

Yeah, I'd say welcome to UBS. Glad you're here. We bought it at 12 times now, trades at 19 times more fully valued than it was. We bought it for some of the same Reasons that Josh talked about, Stephanie talked about on the show, the new CEO. They are demonstrating that they can change their business. You know, it also highlights the benefit of thinking about buying names that are a little less expensive and they have a catalyst to change the business. That happened in IBM. We happened to buy this on the same day. And you know, those two stocks have really performed. They were cheaper ways to play in a market that was expensive.

[Scott Wapner]

In frothy Lilly and Gilead, which are yours too. Yep. Named reiterated top picks at J.P. morgan today. What do you think of those?

[Amy Raskin]

Yeah, both positive year to date. Gilead, we, you know, you had to wait a long time to get the performance out of this name. You had to be patient. But ultimately being patient paid off. They're seeing a lot of acceleration in their earnings fueled by their, their HIV platform. Lilly got expensive and we reduced it. And it, you know, we're at a more normalized rate. We reduced it at 50 times. It's trading at 35 times. We're still overweight because we believe in the GLP1 franchise and recent announcements around the broader distribution of Zeppelin, you know, kind of lend support to this. They're going to have pretty big revenue.

[Scott Wapner]

Growth over the next two years staying in health care. UnitedHealthcare wise price target got cut to 600 from 650. They still like it at Mizuho. They say it's an outperform, but they no longer believe the company can trade at prior multiples given the market volatility. Is that a fair, fair assessment?

[Josh Brown]

It's fair assessment near term. Right. Because there's uncertainty about Medicare, which is obviously part of their business. There's just uncertainty about everything to do with health care. So that's fair. However, I'd say 600 bucks is still, still a pretty nice game in this market for their price target. So I'm still there. I like it. I think management's phenomenal. I think they do have growth levers. And whether goes from 650 to 600 on their view. Just don't care.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Kate Rooney has the headlines for us today. Hi, Kate.

[I]

Hey there, Scott. So the Trump administration is threatening to cut Columbia University's federal funding unless it gives control of its International Studies department to the federal government for five years. In a letter to the school last night, federal officials did not explain why the department was being targeted or provide details on how the receivership would play out. It does come as the Education Department announced earlier today it was investigating more than 50 universities over alleged racial discrimination. Meanwhile, the Senate is set to give final approval to a bill that could increase penalties for fentanyl traffickers. Under that bill, all versions of fentanyl, including copycats, would be permanently placed on the DEA's list of most dangerous drugs. And Liberal leader Mark Carney officially became Canada's prime minister today, replacing Justin Trudeau. A former central banker could hold the title for just weeks as he is expected to trigger a general election soon as Canada continues to fend off threats of annexation and then tariffs, of course, from President Trump. Guys and Scott, back over to you.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Kate, thank you very much for that. That's Kate Rooney. Coming up, stock picks to weather the storm. We tried to give them to you all week. Another firm is out with their own list. An all weather portfolio for you. We'll talk about that next.

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[Scott Wapner]

Welcome back. Let's talk about this all weather portfolio. According to Evercore isi, these are stocks where the price and valuation they say the dislocations of recent weeks are at odds with the strength of the company's underlying fundamentals. They have the ability to outperform over the next 12 months irrespective of how the myriad uncertainty resolved themselves. NRG, Rob Sietch is on that list, as is Vistra.

[Amy Raskin]

Yes. So Vistra, we sold a little bit to buy nrg and that was just a little bit of a multiple arbitrage. Both ways to play the data center power consumption trade. But NRG a lot less expensive at 12 times versus where is Vstra right now? 18 times. So Bistro gave up a lot. You know, it's down quite a bit.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, of course as well it's been in the pullback and the unwind in the momentum names.

[Amy Raskin]

Momentum names? Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Vertex Aim on the list.

[Rob Seachin]

Yeah, it's been a really strong performer. It hasn't pulled back at all. And everybody's very excited about their pain drug. We think even beyond pain, they have really exciting things in the pipeline, including their T1D program that you're going to get a pivotal readout this year and we think it could be a really big market for them. So. So we're excited about it.

[Scott Wapner]

IBM on the list. Rob added it in May.

[Amy Raskin]

It's up 51%. Since it's up 13% year to date, I think today it's a little more fully valued at 23 times. But we continue to believe it should be a long term hold with their involvement in AI consulting, asml.

[Rob Seachin]

Amy, it had a tough year last year. It's holding up back better than the rest of their peer group this year. We think it's a long term hold. It might not do anything in the immediate future if the NASDAQ stays under pressure. But we like it longer term.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh Alphabet made the list as did in Video, Microsoft and Amazon.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I suppose that's not surprising. At the end of the day, these stocks at this point are in a situation where you're buying them at a lower multiple than you were even as recently as January and in some cases a substantially lower multiple. So if you think the earnings hold up and you think the AI related spending and datacenter spending is mostly not disrupted by what's happening, the political headlines, having these names on the list makes perfect sense to me.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Santola. He's next after this break with his midday work. Michael Santoli, our senior markets commentator, sitting here at post nine with us. This pretty good bounce.

[J]

It's pretty good baby steps. You know, you look for each hurdle to be cleared. I think it's a positive that it's happening. When you had a absolutely disastrous consumer sentiment number and the market looked at it and said, yeah, we got it, that's what this has been about for a few weeks. And so that's a net positive. I've gotten no help from, from bonds this week. I mean, well, you can debate as to whether you'd want to see a huge rally in Treasuries.

[Scott Wapner]

Right? Right.

[J]

But we've rallied right back up to the levels we were hoping would hold on the downside Tuesday and Wednesday. Probably not an accident. You want to get there and see if you can avoid another intraday fade. I was just looking recently at Just how unusually persistent the three week decline has been. We haven't closed the S and P hasn't closed above its five day moving average all month. So it just shows you that every single time pops its head up it gets sold. So if it doesn't happen today you can say maybe you've dried up a little more of the selling into next week. There are some positives seasonally and then you got operate, you got got options expiration which should maybe help in this instance. And then the question is, is the market saying as long as we don't have new negative policy news we're okay or is it just, you know, a blip and a bounce?

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, it's conspicuously quiet today. For now we'll, we'll see. VIX the boil off a little bit.

[J]

Finally talking about interestingly it didn't get into outright sheer panic mode. I know a lot of folks who have really wanted to see that, that huge capitulation and basically just get me out at any price. It's kind of like I always feel like there's certain tactical folks and traders who are saying it's like the Braveheart meme hold, hold, hold, hold now. And they never think it's time to go now because it's not ugly enough. But I do think the VIX coming in several points off the high. It just shows you maybe the market found a little traction.

[Scott Wapner]

We will, we'll see what happens the last hour. We'll spend it together at 3:00. Mike Santoli, the setup is next. All right, let's do the setup. Qualcomm, they have their shareholders meeting on Tuesday, March 18th. Rob, you own that stock?

[Amy Raskin]

We do. I don't know that we're looking to that meeting but we're looking at a company that trades at 12 and a half times, has attractive return characteristics. They're a 40% discount to the semiconductor industry average. The stock's cheap because competition has increased in the smartphone space. But they've done a good job in moving into electric cars and other electric components.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Amy, Disney has its shareholder meeting next week too. I mean that's been a really tough stock lately.

[Rob Seachin]

It has been.

[Scott Wapner]

Any consumer facing travel related name, experiential name has just gotten crushed.

[Rob Seachin]

Yep. And I'm not looking to the meeting for anything and I'm not expecting any real catalyst near term, longer term I do think they're getting their streaming business in line. They will be one of the, the survivors in streaming. They're making a lot of investments in the parks but as you said, near term, it's going to be challenged. 1.3 million Canadians visited Orlando in 2023. So we'll see if they come.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Adobe, that's been a tough stock. They have their Digital Experience Summit in Vegas next week. You own that one?

[Amy Raskin]

Yeah, it's.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you still.

[Amy Raskin]

We do. We do. It's been a tough stock for the last year and been a tough stock year to date. I think people have been worried about the adoption of AI and the potential impact on this company. You know, Firefly thus far has been encouraging and we think there'll be increased utilization with this product for this company. So we continue to hold it despite the recent performance.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Nvidia has their conference next week. You're watching IonQ. As a result, a stock that had a unbelievable move. You trimmed it twice. You're still in it, though.

[Rob Seachin]

We're still in it. We keep a small position in it. This is a name that's either going to go up a lot or go to zero, probably. It's very volatile, as you can see from the chart. But Nvidia is going to have a Quantum day at GTC next week. The CEO will be speaking and, you know, out of all the technology to Quantum technologies, we like ion trapping and they're one of the leading players and the only public play on ion trapping.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. You can see their year to date down more than 40%. We'll do finals after this break.

[Amy Raskin]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the halftime podcast now.

[Scott Wapner]

How about this? Halftime is going to be live from Future Proof Citywide on Tuesday. Josh Brown, your event. I think people have gotten pretty used to what we do with you out in Huntington beach, but this is going to be pretty cool as well.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, we're bringing the show to Wall Street South, AKA Miami Beach. We are so excited to be there. Basically, it's thousands of people who work in the wealth management industry who all have one thing in common. They want to get better at their jobs, serve customers, and keep in touch with what, what's happening in terms of cutting edge technology for our space. So we'll be there Sunday through Wednesday. CNBC will be there. I'm super excited for people to take a look at the first ever Miami Citywide for the Future Proof event.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, best of luck with that. We're happy to be there with you, too. Give me a final trade while I have you here.

[Steve Weiss]

Uber sitting right on top of its 200 day and its 50 day finding support.

[Amy Raskin]

Robert NRG, we talked about it today. I'll be there with you. Josh.

[Rob Seachin]

Amy Franco, NV Leverage to the gold price and you get potentially a kicker if you get news on Cobra Panama twice.

[Josh Brown]

Meta I like the fact that it wasn't on that list to buy, so that means to me that it's washed out.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you on Closing Bell with Adam Parker, Stephanie Link, Shannon Sokosh and Stacey Raskon. The exchange begins now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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