Halftime Report: Trading the Unsettled Markets (March 14, 2025)
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, Amy Raskin, Rob Seachin

Overview
In the March 14, 2025 episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner and a panel of top investors—including Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, Amy Raskin, and Rob Seachin—delved into the complexities of trading in today’s unsettled markets. The discussion covered a wide range of topics, from current market rebounds to the potential impact of upcoming policy changes, providing listeners with in-depth analysis and actionable insights.

1. Market Overview and Current Trends

Scott Wapner opened the discussion by highlighting the day's market performance:

"Stocks are getting a nice bounce today. Importantly, the S&P back above 5600, the Dow back above 41K, the Russell back above 2000." ([00:59])

The panel acknowledged the positive movement, with several indices rebounding above crucial support levels. However, skepticism remained about the sustainability of this rally.

2. Sustainability of the Market Rally

Steve Weiss emphasized caution regarding the current market highs:

"Jonathan Krinski of BTIG likes what he sees so far, says good start with extremely strong upside volume. Piper Sandler has been talking about a good buying opportunity as is Wolf Research says the conditions are therefore a counter trend rally." ([01:20])

The consensus was that while the bounce offers potential, it might not indicate a long-term trend reversal without underlying strength.

3. Impact of Policy Changes and Tariffs

Josh Brown raised concerns about upcoming policy decisions:

"April 2nd is going to be when they come in with this study on reciprocal tariffs. So that could potentially be another ugly day." ([02:06])

He predicted increased volatility ahead of the study and highlighted the uncertain economic landscape, including delays in key economic indicators like PPI and CPI.

4. The MAG7 Stocks and Market Sentiment

The discussion shifted to the MAG7—major tech stocks that have significantly influenced market trends. Josh Brown noted:

"The MAG7, which haven't been so magnificent this year, are the place to go because they've got fortress balance sheets now." ([02:32])

However, Scott Wapner countered with the substantial losses these stocks have incurred:

"$2.7 trillion in market value from the MAG7 is what has been lost over the last three weeks." ([03:00])

The panel debated whether the MAG7 could rebound or if their decline signaled deeper market issues.

5. Dow Theory and Recession Indicators

Steve Weiss provided an analysis of Dow Theory:

"The Dow Jones transports have fallen 20% from a high 15 times. Most recently it happened in 2022... Only six times out of those 15 episodes has a negative 20% reading on the Dow Jones transports led to a recession." ([07:15])

He cautioned against overinterpreting these indicators, suggesting that a transport downturn doesn't always herald a recession.

6. Investor Sentiment and Political Influence

The conversation touched on the influence of political actions on market sentiment. Josh Brown expressed his views on the Trump administration's policies:

"There is absolute certainty here... policies are a little disjointed, a little incoherent right now, but there's a direct impact on the market." ([12:21])

Amy Raskin advised against letting political emotions drive investment decisions:

"I want to caution our viewers to not let your political emotions get too involved. It's not political, it's policy." ([13:18])

7. Navigating Market Volatility: Strategies and Stock Picks

Scott Wapner and the panel discussed strategies to navigate the current volatility, emphasizing diversification and selective stock picking. Notable stock recommendations included:

• Shake Shack (Josh Brown): Identified as an overweight position due to its solid fundamentals despite recent declines.

• Starbucks (Josh Brown): Continues to be a favored stock on the best list, supported by strong brand resilience.

• 3M (Steve Weiss & Amy Raskin): Highlighted as a top industrial pick with compelling profit improvement opportunities ([31:33]).

8. Sector Analysis: Financials and International Markets

The panel analyzed the financial sector and international markets, noting:

"Santander is trading at 7 times earnings and is still 50% cheaper than the US market." ([24:27])

Steve Weiss pointed out that diversified portfolios are holding up well despite sector-specific downturns, particularly in tech-heavy indices.

9. All-Weather Portfolio Recommendations

Amy Raskin introduced the concept of an all-weather portfolio, selecting stocks based on strong fundamentals despite current market dislocations. Key picks included:

• NRG and Vistra: Focused on data center power consumption trades.

• IBM and ASML: Viewed as long-term holds with involvement in AI and other growth sectors.

"These stocks have the ability to outperform over the next 12 months irrespective of how the uncertainty resolves." ([37:36])

10. Upcoming Corporate Events and Stock Setups

The panel previewed upcoming corporate events that could influence stock performance:

• Qualcomm: Shareholders meeting discussed as a potential market mover ([42:49]).

• Disney and Adobe: Both facing turbulent stock performances with upcoming strategic initiatives expected to impact future results ([43:21]).

• Nvidia: Highlighted for its Quantum Day and potential breakthroughs in quantum technologies ([44:35]).

11. Closing Remarks and Final Insights

In conclusion, the panel maintained a balanced view, recognizing both the opportunities and risks in the current market environment. Josh Brown emphasized the importance of focusing on policy over politics, while Steve Weiss reassured investors about the resilience of diversified portfolios.

"Most investors are hanging in there and doing just fine. Developed markets look good and there are sectors within the US that are hanging in there." ([38:01])

Scott Wapner wrapped up the episode by encouraging listeners to stay informed and adaptable as markets continue to navigate through uncertainty.

Notable Quotes:

• Josh Brown ([02:06]): "April 2nd is going to be when they come in with this study on reciprocal tariffs. So that could potentially be another ugly day."

• Steve Weiss ([07:15]): "Only six times out of those 15 episodes has a negative 20% reading on the Dow Jones transports led to a recession."

• Amy Raskin ([13:18]): "I want to caution our viewers to not let your political emotions get too involved. It's not political, it's policy."

• Steve Weiss ([32:45]): "The money's not going nowhere. The money's not sitting in money market funds, at least not for long."

• Amy Raskin ([37:36]): "These stocks have the ability to outperform over the next 12 months irrespective of how the uncertainty resolves."

Conclusion
The Halftime Report episode provided a comprehensive analysis of the current unsettled markets, blending expert insights with strategic stock recommendations. The panel underscored the importance of diversification, cautious optimism, and a focus on policy-driven investment decisions to navigate the ongoing market volatility.