CNBC Halftime Report — September 2, 2025

Episode Theme: Trading the Weak September Start

Overview:
Host Scott Wapner leads the CNBC Halftime Report as markets kick off September under notable pressure. As tech and AI-related stocks correct, surging bond yields, tariff uncertainty, and the start of the seasonally tough September weigh on Wall Street’s mood. A panel of top investors—Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Jason Snipe—debate whether this is the start of a deeper rotation, how to manage expectations, and where opportunities lie beyond the crowded AI trades.

Key Discussion Points

1. Market Sell-Off & Rising Yields

• Backdrop:
  • Major indices, especially NASDAQ, are sharply down, with tech leading the declines.
  • Bond yields are surging—30-year US yields touch 5%, UK gilts at their highest since 1998.
  • Tech losses marked the first back-to-back 1%+ NASDAQ drops since "liberation day" earlier this year.
    [02:10, Scott/Panel]
• Commentary:
  • Joe Terranova:

    "We've always said the question was, when you're looking at three major balance sheets—consumer, corporate, and government—which one has the most stress? Right now we're seeing a re-acceleration of stress on the governmental balance sheet."
    [02:10, Joe Terranova]

  • Tech correction comes after a massive run post-Nvidia earnings.

2. Technology and AI Sector Under Pressure

• Multiple Headwinds:
  • Post-earnings "hangover" for Nvidia and peers.
  • Concerns over a CapEx bubble, ROI, China competition, and "stretched valuations."
  • News like Alibaba hurting sentiment around chips.
  • Big private valuation headlines, e.g., Anthropic’s $183B raise, add to froth and concern about AI sector sustainability.
    [04:05, Scott][05:00, Josh][05:49, Josh]
• Josh Brown:

  "You're post-catalyst...Now that Nvidia's behind you, it's like, add all those things, and then layer on top of it seasonality."
  [04:57, Josh Brown]

  • Still bullish on AI long-term, but sees profit-taking, rotation, and “choice” in the market, with other themes performing well (international/small value, banks, biotech).

3. Market Rotation & Managing Expectations

• Jenny Harrington:
  • Emphasizes need to "manage expectations." Even if the market ends the year up 8%-10% after huge prior gains, that's a win.
  • Notable rotation: many top performers YTD are non-tech: Newmont, Seagate, GE Aerospace, CVS Health.

  "Let’s not get too hyped up over this pullback... Consider rotation. Manage your expectations."
  [07:51, Jenny Harrington]

• Notes rising skepticism over the AI hype:
  • The “clanker” slur as social media critics push back against AI adoption.
  • China pursuing “cheaper, practical” AI—potentially a threat to US AI premium valuations.

4. Tariffs, Yields, and Macro Uncertainty

• Panel discusses:
  • Yields rising makes stocks less attractive (“there’s a reasonable alternative”).
  • Tariff refunds would have major fiscal impacts if they materialize ($90B+ in potential refunds).
  • Bond “vigilantes” may act up if US deficit reduction expectations evaporate.
    [09:47, Scott][10:22, Jason Snipe]
• Jason Snipe:

  "You put that in the crock pot, and that’s what is driving us down…it’s a turn of a new month. Seasonality is a real thing—September is traditionally the worst month in the market."
  [11:18, Jason Snipe]

5. AI Valuations and Market Structure

• Anthropic’s $183B valuation:
  • Raises questions: is there room for everyone in the LLM/AI space?
  • Joe Terranova:

    "That would be rather foolish to do that [to assume there's room for all]. Right now, the AI thesis might be maturing in terms of positioning."
    [12:46, Joe Terranova]

  • Concerns that if/when OpenAI and others IPO, capital may be sucked from the megacaps.

6. Sector Check: Chips, Industrials, Financials

• Semis / Equipment:

  • Chip equipment stocks (Lam Research, Applied Materials, KLA) are scrutinized amid cyclical risk.
  • Broadcom earnings on tap; key for sector confidence.
  • Retail crowd still loves Nvidia, Palantir, AMD, Walmart, CoreWeave, Snowflake, etc.
    [15:17, Josh Brown][17:19, Scott]
  • Josh: uses stops, wary of cycles:

    "Chip equipment is always going to be cyclical. A lot of people in these names—huge gains, now worried about the peak of the cycle."
    [17:19, Josh Brown]

• Industrials:

  • Classics like Carrier, UPS, Stanley Black & Decker struggling amid tariff and economic noise.
  • Investors and managers find it hard to make decisions with such policy uncertainty.
    [19:30, Jenny Harrington]

• Financials / Banks:

  • Regional banks breaking out, supported by declining mortgage rates and potential for rate cuts.

  • Josh Brown:

    "Financials have been leading my best stocks in the market list by volume pretty much all year...now we're starting to see actual banks—regionals like PNC, Truist, Huntington Bank—breaking out."
    [21:34, Josh Brown]

  • Potential mortgage refinancing boom as rates tick down could keep fueling regional outperformance.

  • Caution from Jenny: If rate cuts don’t flow through to mortgage rates, the bull thesis for regionals may not hold.

7. Notable Stock Calls & Updates (Selected Timestamps)

• Gold & Mining:

  • Gold at all-time high; Newmont downgraded but still owned by panelists for government fiscal stress hedge.
    [29:40, Scott][29:58, Joe Terranova]
  • Freeport seen as a gold proxy with "nice gold perk."

• Netflix:

  • Bernstein reiterates outperform with $1390 PT.
  • Jason Snipe bullish: "Quarter was really strong. EPS growth up 47%."
    [31:03-31:12, Scott & Jason]

• Verizon:

  • Goldman targets $49. High yield, low expectations, "can’t go wrong on this call."
    [31:42, Jenny]

• Nvidia:

  • Addressing “erroneous chatter” about chip supply constraints:

    "We have more than enough H100, H200 chips to satisfy every order without delay."
    [32:22, Christina Parts Nevelis quoting Nvidia]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On AI Valuations and Market Churn:

  "Everyone understands that there’s a lot of money already invested in this space. Valuations are not low, expectations are pretty high and they’ve just gone on a huge run...there’s an underappreciated thing happening...away from AI."
  [05:49, Josh Brown]

• On Active Trading & Rotational Themes:

  "Active trading is looking purely at stocks from the lower left to upper right...it is momentum in its purest form and it is a grand part of the marketplace."
  [18:11, Joe Terranova]

• On Regional Banks Outperforming:

  "Mortgage refinance activity is only the tip of the iceberg...If we get even one or two rate cuts, mortgage rates continue to come down, you’re going to see this boom in demand for loans...regional banks have a lot of room."
  [21:34, Josh Brown]

• On September Seasonality:

  "Seasonality is a real thing—September is traditionally the worst month in the market."
  [11:18, Jason Snipe]

Other Major Segments

Private Credit & Sports Franchises

• Apollo launching $5B sports investment vehicle—private credit up 50% since 2020, now $1.5T and growing.

  "Private markets have outperformed public markets net of fees...Sports are the entertainment vehicle not cannibalized by AI."
  [36:56–38:53, Robert Frank & Joe Terranova]

Ryder Cup Preview & Hospitality

• Massive upcoming golf event at Bethpage; tickets sold out, significant corporate sponsorship.
  [40:39+, Jeff Price]

Final Trades & Closing Thoughts [45:54–46:36]

• Josh Brown: Netflix ("32 times earnings, 32% growth expected")
• Jason Snipe: Amazon (value after selloff)
• Jenny Harrington: MPLX LP ("7.5% yield, out of the fray of tariffs and rates")
• Joe Terranova: Valero ("refiner trade is breaking out")

Conclusion

This episode spotlights the complexity heading into September: big tech fatigue, elevated bond yields, macro and policy uncertainties, and the fear—and potential—of market rotation. The panel encourages managing expectations, scrutinizing overhyped themes (especially AI), and being open to new opportunities, particularly in financials and select industrials. The seasonality of September and ongoing uncertainties make active management and flexibility crucial.

For deeper dives on financials, AI rotation, and macro risks, or to track the latest on September's pivotal market action, stay tuned to CNBC’s Halftime Report.