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Halftime Report
Trading the Weak September Start 9/2/25
00:44:12
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the markets with stocks under pressure, global bond yields rallying and the future of the trump tariffs in doubt following last week’s court ruling. Plus, Josh Brown shares some updates to his “Best Stocks in the Market.” And later, the desk discuss the latest Calls of the Day on Newmont, Netflix and Verizon. Investment Committee Disclosures
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What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
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And everything in between.
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With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.
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C
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, Carl, thanks very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the markets under pressure today, global buying yields, they are rallying the future. The Trump tariffs in doubt. And following that court ruling, we're trading all of it with the investment committee. On the case today is Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Jason Snipe will show you the markets. We're basically at the lows of the session as you see the declines there. And to no secret today, the NASDAQ is leading. If you look at almost a 2% decline, by the way, this is the first back to back 1% declines for the Nasdaq since that so called liberation day. So it's been a minute, been a minute since Joe. We've seen a tech sell off like we have the last couple of days. Yields are surging everywhere they are. And it's not just touching 5% on the 30 year here. Yes, boons, gilts almost everywhere you look, France, that is a significant story today.
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D
I think that was the big story. Overnight you had the UK gilt 30 year touching 5.72. That's the highest level in 27 years. So we've always said the question was when you're looking at the three major balance sheets, consumer, corporate and government, which one has the most stress on it? And right now we're seeing a re acceleration of the stress on the governmental balance sheet. What that means for the equity markets is the most loved areas of the market, the areas of the market where momentum has been the catalyst, where bullish people like myself have advocated for owning the those areas of the market you're going to see working off some of the overbought conditions, some of the extreme sentiment, the bullishness surrounding it. And that takes you directly towards technology. So you had the Nvidia earnings the other day. Post Nvidia's earnings, you've seen a little bit of a reversal and it really is technology that's being targeted right now in this mild correction.
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C
More than a little bit of a reversal. Right? I mean Nvidia has not traded well at all since its earnings release and the selling feels like it's accelerated a little bit. There's what looks to me like an intraday. If you, if you take, there's the one week, I mean it's a, basically a flat line and then the boom. So we'll continue to follow that. But it really is an AI related sell off today, Josh, if almost everywhere you look in that space, that's where the most amount of pressure is. As you, as you come into September. Are you talking about a Capex bubble like Sam Altman warned about? Are you talking about a return on investment from all of the capex that continues to escalate? Are you talking about stretched valuations? Are you talking about China competition? The Alibaba news wasn't good for the chip stocks last week and there is follow through it appears today on all of those fronts.
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E
Yeah, I think that's right. Sometimes it's not as simple as trying to figure out who committed the murder in the Clue mansion. And we're looking for one specific person holding the candlestick, etc. Sometimes it's just an accumulation of things that make people say, you know what, I own a lot of this. Maybe I don't need to own as much. I also think like you're post Catalyst, so I know Broadcom is going to report and that's obviously a catalyst, but like the Nvidia thing is the thing. So for this theme, if you held through earnings season, you made a lot of money. If you've been in these stocks since the lows in April, you made a lot of money. I mean these stocks went absolutely crazy to the upside. And so now that that catalyst is behind you, it's like, all right, I'll add all the things that you just said, judge, and then I'll layer on top of it. Seasonality, take an eye and then I'll layer on top.
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C
Can I add one thing real quick? I don't mean to interrupt you, but.
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E
Yeah, please.
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C
There's a Story that just drops from the Wall Street Journal and like literally falls in our lap in this conversation. Anthropic completes new funding round at $183 billion valuation. I bring it up right, they finalized three and a half billion at a, at a $61 billion 61.5 billion valuation. So they completed the round at 183 billion valuation. It just goes to exactly what we're talking about. Big numbers, spending valuations, expectations and whether even with all of the legit, legitness, legitimacy around the hype, whether all of these numbers can pay off.
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E
Yeah, no, I think, I think all of, all of these things can be true. You can still be bullish on the theme between now the end of the decade, which I certainly am. But you have to say to yourself like, all right, I'm not the only person that gets it. Everyone understands that there's a lot of money already invested in this space. Valuations are not low, expectations are pretty high and they've just gone on a huge run. But there's an under appreciated thing happening on a parallel trap that I think is worth bringing up, which is there's a ton of money being made away from AI International, Small Value, US Small Value, both outperforming the S and P this year. The banks are going absolutely nuts. I have 39 banks on my best stocks in the market list right now, which I think is the 39 financials. I should say seven. Specifically seven of them are banks. Historically this year it's been mostly capital markets related stocks and now it's banks themselves. There are a lot of new stocks that people haven't looked at in a while. So the biotech starting to get going. The XPI looks pretty good. So I think there's choice. And so you might have somebody that says, well, you know what I just wrote in video up from 150 to 180 maybe I take a little bit off and I look at some of this rotation into other sectors that I've been ignoring up until now. So I don't think it's an emergency judge. I just think it's people doing a combination of profit taking, recognizing that valuations and expectations are high and getting excited by other areas of the market that are working. And it's been a while.
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C
Yeah, yeah, it has. So Jenny, we, you know, obviously are on a, on a weekend here as we enter September. I mean, how you, how are you thinking about everything in the, in the context of, you know, the tariffs, the areas that have led the. There's more scrutiny over the Trade industrials are weak today, financials are weaker today. These are the winning sectors.
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B
So I think a lot of when you say, how are you thinking about it? Right. Really, to me, the theme that keeps popping back into my head is manager expectations. We need to remember that last year the market was up 25%. It was up 26% the year before that, we're still up almost 10% this year. If we were to end 2025 up 8% or up 7%, I would consider that a massive win. So, like, let's not get too hyped up over this, over this pullback. But at the same time, I think you need to be really serious about rotation. I was just looking at this thing that's a list of the top performing stocks year to date and it feeds into exactly what Josh was saying. Palantir. Okay, that's the only one that kind of fits that a ish theme. Newmont, Seagate, GE Renova, Western, Dig, CVS Health, GE Aerospace, nge. That those are the stocks that are up the most this year. Those things are all up 50, 60, 70% on the year. So there's this definite rotation. And then I found this morning interesting, you know, I read a bunch in the morning and there's, there's definitely negativity moving in on the AI theme. So I don't know if anyone's heard this term. I just heard it this morning. It's called Clanker. And Clanker has become a go to slur against AI on social media. And it's talking about how people are starting to revolt on it. So saying like, hey, don't take our jobs. Hey, that looks really fake. That music's terrible. That image isn't great. And so, so there's that revolt. And then at the same time, there was another article out this morning saying China's pursuing a more practical and potentially cheaper AI strategy. So that I would argue would continue to take the wind out of some of, some of the AI leadership that's out there just in terms of valuation that we've seen. So I think, I think the market could still end up fine this year. But you should consider, consider rotation. You should manage your expectations. When we talk about what's the next leg up, I don't see how we go from up 10% on the year now to up 20%. I think if we just manage our expectations and say, look, if we end up up 6% or up 12%, that'd be just fine. So I'm not really, I don't know, I'm not really fiery on the subject for a change.
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C
So on the issue of bond yields which need to be closely watched. Yeah. Ed Yardeni today talks about the bond vigilantes might start acting up again if they can no longer look forward to a significant reduction in the federal deficit attributable to tariff revenues. Right. It sort of hangs in the balance for the moment. I mean the tariffs are staying in place until the, you know, the legal system has its final judgment day on all of that. As long as we're talking about yields rising, it's going to be hard to talk about stocks rising as well, isn't it?
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F
There's no doubt about it. I mean there's a reasonable alternative. Right. Obviously, if the 30 year trading at close to 5%, the 10 year jumping pretty dramatically and then, you know, this concern around tariffs and how this story is going to play back, play out, you know, $90 billion potentially as a tariff refund. You know, you're talking about a lot of these dollars being able to pay down the deficit that we have. So there's definitely some concern. And then obviously the thing that we've been talking about where there's digestion, there's a lot of hype, a lot of capex talk that we've, we've heard through earnings and looking at other sectors as Josh described and Jenny described and other names that have done well. So I think you put that in the crock pot and I think that's what is kind of driving us down a little bit. And you know, it's a turn of the new month.
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C
Right.
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F
Seasonality is a real thing. You know, whether we believe it or you subscribe to it or not. September is traditionally the worst month in the market.
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C
So you know, I get that. And by the way, there are people talking about that too today in which some are suggesting, you know, don't fear September. Why? Because earnings have been great. The momentum is going to continue there. Rate cuts are coming probably in September, markets betting big on that. After that, who knows? The trend is intact. And then you've had record highs in the market which isn't a bad thing usually heading into September. I just go back to, by the way, Anthropic has confirmed on its own this raise at a Post money valuation of $183 billion. Should we just assume that there's room in the sandbox for every large language model builder and that what is OpenAI at whatever it's valued at now? I don't even know. $300 billion anthropic and you know, perplexity is out there talking about and people are speculating about certain deals that that company is doing and there's others. Should we look at these large, large, large numbers and just say, hey man, everything's great. This is to the moon and beyond. There's room for everybody to play equally and thus the valuations are going to continue to surge.
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Remember that scale.
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That would be rather foolish to do that. One of the things that for the better part of this year I've been trying to look forward and understand is what will the effect of open AI actually going public be on right now? The resting Mag 7 and the Halo universe. And I'm not necessarily sure there is enough room when they go public for.
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C
Other words, they got to get capital sucking from somewhere.
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That capital where you're going to get it from somewhere. Especially if you're in an environment where we're saying, okay, the AI thesis might be maturing. So somewhat the AI thesis, as Josh.
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C
Actually that's a controversial statement in and of itself. Well, it might be maturing.
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D
It's maturing.
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C
People are talking about the second inning.
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D
Let me finish my thought. It's maturing. If you correlate it.
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C
Toddler ownership mature than a.
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D
Than a. Correlate it to the ownership. Josh made a strong point on this. We know, we know that people have allocated towards the. The AI thesis. That's a well known understanding within markets. It's not as if we're saying out of nowhere, hey, we've got this AI thematic investment strategy that you might want to think about. We have people friends of ours on the show who are launching ETFs surrounding the thesis. So there is a maturity in terms of positioning itself and I really call into question the ability for some of these companies, companies which are private now, to actually IPO in 2026 and not see capital move away from the dominant players.
- [14:24]
C
There are, you know, if you, if you look at some of these AI adjacent names or AI pure names, the power names over the last month are down a bunch. Vertiv or Nova, Constellation, Vistra, Eaton, Certain areas that play in the industrials are down. We mentioned what's happening in financials too. We'll get back to that also in a minute. The chips are being scrutinized. I think Josh, in a way that it's like if you're in the AI space, by and large you're good. If you're not like right in the ball game, maybe you're not so good. Chip equipment names have been scrutinized LAM Research downgraded to underweight. That was at Morgan Stanley today. You sold LAM Research. Why did you do that?
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E
Well that was a stop. So that was a name on my best stocks in the market. But then they reported earnings and the stock sold off. And I tried to use the weakness as an entry. The stock went up initially rolled my stop up but then I didn't end up making any money. So but you know that's like, that's a trade. I think the main event for the chips sector is to have Broadcom come out on Thursday and basically reiterate everything that Nvidia just said about the demand picture. So just to give people a quick idea, the revenue expectation for Broadcom is 15.8 billion. So that would be a 21% year over year increase on earnings per share. They're looking for a 34% year over year increase. This is important. Broadcom is the seventh largest company in the S&P 500 right now. It's another trillion plus dollar market cap company. And again they have to give you, I don't think they have to come out and say 3 to 4 trillion in capex the way Nvidia CFO did but they have to at least ratify the health of demand for chips. And they're not head to head in the same chips. But it's all part of this big AI theme I think on the equipment side. Judge. So LAM Research, Applied Materials and KLA are the three big names there. I mean these stocks are high beta names. I still like Lam a lot fundamentally technically I have to wait for it to set up. I like that the best of the three but in the end like they're still cyclical. As excited as we all are about this secular AI once in a lifetime build out story. Chip equipment is any capital equipment. It's always going to be cyclical. And I think a lot of people that are in these names, they've had huge gains and now they're worried about are we seeing the peak of the cycle. And I'll leave that to the semiconductor analysts to decide. I won't be the one that sees that coming. Which is why when I'm involved in these names I'm typically using stop losses.
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C
Yeah, CNBC pro today by the way if you look at how people are positioned or the stocks that are most in favor as we head into the fall. Thought had a really good read. I encourage you to check it out and if you're not a member yet, think about it. The most loved stocks among the retail community Heading into September, no surprise. I think from the top two, Nvidia and Palantir. Big net orders from the retail cohort. Interesting. Walmart on the list. So there's, there's AI and then not, you know, not necessarily pure Walmart. Core weave, Snowflake, AMD Robinhood is going to surprise nobody by being on the on the list. Soundhound, AI Hims and hers as well. You have some play around this way.
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D
I do. Look, it just speaks to the nature of active trading and how it's intensified over the last several years. And active trading is looking purely at stocks that are going from the lower left to the upper right. You're not going to see names on this list like Merck or Pfizer or names that are struggling like a Lululemon. These are stocks where people are looking at them and saying, okay, I could get rewarded quickly. A lot of these stocks, they have fundamental justification behind their appreciation. Some of these stocks maybe you could call into question and be a little bit skeptical about that fundamental representation. But that's really what this is. It's momentum in its purest form and it is a grand part of the marketplace.
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C
Industrials have had a lot of momentum, but not so much as we start September. Jenny. Carrier, Stanley, Black and Decker, ups. I mentioned if you can easily draw a line from the AI industrial type names like that. You mentioned ge, Vernova. Yeah, some are utilities, some are considered industrials, like, like that one. But then there is, I mean the ISMs manufacturing ISMs were weaker than expectations today. Carrier, Stanley, Black and Decker up, UPS, 3M, Honeywell, Rails and Truckers are all having a tough session.
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B
I think the problem with particularly the UPS carrier, Stanley, Black and Decker with those, the problem is that the tariff noise has overwhelmed whatever else is going on. And things like for ups, you know what the de minimis packaging pricing is and for Stanley, what tariffs really are going to be. Everything else is eclipsed by tariff noise. And that's what one of the problems with what's going on today is. It just adds in uncertainty. And so as an investor it's very hard to make decisions when a huge part of the business is going to be impacted by that. And by the way, for the management teams it's very hard too. So I think that's the real story here. It's less kind of bigger economic.
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C
What do you think?
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F
Yeah, no, I think, you know, as it relates to the theme and the de minimis. The de minimis story I think is a big story. Right, Because I think you Know, you don't think about pricing power and the cost to the consumer. The consumer has held up relatively well thus far, you know, so I think that's a big story, especially for the industrial names and obviously the transport names. Right. You know, as it relates to some of what Joe was saying about some of the, some of the software names. And I think about a snowflake being on that, on that list, you know, snowflake. When I think about AI themes, data warehousing, which we were talking about last week, is so, so important, that serves.
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E
As a chassis for information.
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F
These are what the large language models are built off of. So you cannot buy indiscriminately in this space. I think you have to really be, you know, look at, look at names and understand the fundamental stories, as Joe said. But, you know, you can't just buy them all, obviously.
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C
Let's, let's spend another minute. Josh. I don't want to sort of gloss over your best stocks in the market list, by the way, another CNBC pro addition of late, because what's interesting to me is the reason why we moved it up into our A block is number one, financials have been trading so well, but that you make the declaration that it's the smaller banks that are actually breaking out. You like one chart especially. But can you give us a little bit more on that theme?
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E
Yes, absolutely. As I mentioned, for financials have been leading the best stocks in the market list by volume pretty much all year. But a lot of them have been, you know, asset managers, broker dealers, insurance. Now we're starting to see actual banks and not just JP Morgan, Citi and Bank of America, which are on the list. And we've talked about them. But now I got big regionals, I got pnc, I got Truist, and I have Huntington bank, which is the one I wrote up today. So the Journal had a story over the weekend talking about the fact that with mortgage rates down 9 out of the last 12 weeks, there are currently 2 million homeowners who could save money if they refinance. That's up from 1.7 million homeowners as of the end of July. So with every passing month, mortgage, mortgage rates are ticking down slowly, but it's happening. If we get down to 6%, there would be 6 million people in the United States who it would make sense for to go refinance their mortgage. It would have to be point 75 percentage points below where their mortgage was struck. That's like the magic number for when people say, hey, wait a minute, I'm paying too much interest on my mortgage. So that's a very powerful catalyst for the reference regional bank stocks judge. And mortgage refinance activity is only the tip of the iceberg. So the capital market stocks have already benefited from the bull market. And now if you start to get even one or two rate cuts, mortgage rates continue to come down. You're going to see this boom in demand for loans. You're going to see refinance activity, you're going to see existing home sales pick up. Huntington bank, if you want to pull this chart up while I'm talking, this is a no brainer to me. I'm not in the stock yet, but I may be at some point. I don't believe in triple tops. So what you can clearly see is this stock hitting its head against the same level. This is now the third time it's trying this high 17, low 18 resistance. I think she breaks through this time. A lot of these regionals have the same kind of inverse head and shoulders which if you squint at what's on screen you see can see for yourself. And they're all in golden crosses and many of them are making new highs which HBA and recently did. If you pull that chart back longer, you can see there's a lot of room. So what we're saying here, traders can use 1550-16 as their risk management as their line in the sand with a stop. I think longer term investors just swim naked. Don't Even bother. The 13 P E ratio, 3, 3 and a half percent yield, I think you've got that cushion. You risk in the stock is recession. But guess what, that's your risk in every other stock. So this is an example of an area of the market we were talking about. I'm not suggesting people are selling in video and buying Huntington Bank. I'm just saying there are other parties going on, not just the one party. And that's what's notably changed in the market, I think over the course of the summer.
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C
Joe, you've been in that party, you've been at the regional bank party.
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D
At least you think it's going to you there. I do. Josh and I look at markets in a very similar regard. We respect and understand price appreciation, the benefits of it and how to invest towards it. I've said this over the last several months at nauseum about the fact that the Jyoti strategy in the early part of 2024 for aggressively move to an overweight of financials despite a degree of skepticism on my part Josh is right when he talks about early on it was insurance companies, it was asset managers and brokers and it's built to be something more than that. It is regionals. And I have to tell you I was surprised. We have a 35% weighting to the financial sector in the strategy. I was surprised at the last rebalance that we kept names like Citizens Financial Group, like Huntington Bancorp, like regions financial, like PNC, like 5th 3rd. All of these regionals stayed anchored within our sector holding. And I think it's indicative of a potential opportunity. There's underneath all of this there's some catalyst. Whatever that catalyst you want to try and identify it to be, that's fine. Maybe it's regulation, maybe it's what Josh is talking about out with rates, maybe it's pure valuation. But there is a catalyst.
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C
You got real quick on that.
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B
Here's my concern is that a lot of those stocks are up nicely. I agree the financials of regional banks look good. But here's my concern. Last year we cut 100 basis points and it didn't touch mortgage rates. All the hope continues to be that we're going to cut interest rates again this year short term fed funds rate and that mortgage rates are going to come down. What if they don't like does the regional bank thesis, does the large bank thesis still hold up in the same way if the longer end of the curve doesn't follow the short end? I don't think it does.
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C
Kate Rogers has a margins.
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E
Stay high.
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C
Hang on. Just do this with Kate Rogers on Starbucks. Hi Kate.
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G
Hey there Scott.
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A
Starbucks announcing its latest menu innovation.
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G
Protein cold foam is going to be coming to stores in the US and Canada on September 29th. Now in addition to the cold foam there will be a line of of protein lattes and protein boosted milks. The company saying this will deliver between 15 and 36 grams of protein per grande drinks. And they're going to come in sugar free and unsweetened choices as well.
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A
These are just the latest menu changes.
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G
Under CEO Brian Niccol who is approaching the one year mark at Starbucks. The company also just had its best ever sales week across US Company operated stores. It says thanks in part to its fall menu launch and green apron service platform focusing on hospitality. But once again those protein drinks coming end of month. I know it's something that the Wall street community in particular has been watching closely. Scott, back over to you.
- [27:19]
C
Thanks. That's Kate Rogers stock just ripping on that news. Not really.
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D
I drink bone broth. That's my protein all right.
- [27:28]
C
Yeah. All right. Up next, we're into our calls the day a big downgrade in the metals market. Gold hitting a fresh all time high. Silver's on the move as well. We'll discuss next.
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A
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E
Ahead of the NFL season kickoff.
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D
Jerry Jones live and in person with.
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E
Michael Ozanian on the Cowboys rising valuation state of the NFL and the upcoming season. Closing bell overtime four Eastern Thursday and streaming on cnbc.
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C
All right, welcome back. Gold all time high Silver nearing its own record high today. Best levels for that metal since 2011. Newmont Mining was downgraded today to neutral from out perform at Macquarie. That stock hit a new 52 week high despite that earlier this morning. You own Newmont.
- [29:59]
D
Yes, we own Newmont in the etf. Look, ownership of gold is something that I think is important to have right now in a portfolio. Just from the perspective of the challenges that I mentioned at the top of the show for governmental balance sheets and rising bond yields. Also when you think about the commodity complex, it is in arguably the strongest of those in particular, with black gold.
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C
Oil down for the year, you have Freeport. Not like a gold or silver play.
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B
But yeah, not technically, but Freeport is actually the world's ninth largest producer of gold and they sold 1.9 million ounces last year, which is $7 billion. But nobody pays attention for it. So I think, I think one of the challenges in all the mining stocks are again tariffs and what do you do with them. So on the one hand we have this nice little gold perk at Freeport. On the other hand, the share price got completely sloshed around earlier because of tariffs on copper. Bottom line is it trades at 18 times earnings, has a 4% free cash flow yield and huge earnings growth like big double digit earnings growth for the next few years. I think if you can tune out tariff noise, this is a nice way to get the gold perk, maybe with not that concentration.
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C
Other calls today were focused on Netflix reiterated by 1390 price target at Bernstein. Jason Snipe, you own that stock. It's down 10% by the way. Recent high in June.
- [31:13]
F
Yeah, at the end of June. So I mean the quarter is really strong. EPS growth was up 47% and revenue growth was up 16%. They're obviously really focusing on profitability. I think the margin story has been really nice to see. You know the other thing is live programming. Right. Crawford and Alvarez coming up in a couple of weeks. I think it's going to be a nice catalyst for this stock. And I think the contents that late remains rich. They increased prices in January and obviously the consumers swallowed that pill and continue to move forward. So I like this name into the second half of this year.
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C
Jenny Verizon assumed by today Goldman targets 49 bucks.
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B
Yeah. Trading at 10 times earnings with a 6% dividend yield. The expectations are so low that I think they kind of can't go wrong on this call. And it's not super inspiring from what the details of the call are, which is that consumer ARPU should grow, they'll continue to deliver and then FiOS fiber passing should also grow. That's not going to lead to much, but if it gets to $49 which is their price target, that's 12% capital appreciation plus 6% dividend yield. 18% in this market sounds pretty good.
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C
We'll go to Christina Parts and novelist now and news alert regarding Nvidia, which seems to be responding to some rumors about supply Constraints, Yeah, which I was.
- [32:23]
G
A little confused about. I even texted saying, are you front running something? Because I hadn't seen, seen as many rumors. But they're saying we've seen some erroneous chatter in the media about being supply constrained about the H100 and the H200 chips. They are saying that is false. They are not supply constrained. We have more than enough H100, H200 chips to satisfy every order without delay. So they are also saying that all of their cloud partners can rent these chips, but that doesn't mean they're unable to fulfill said orders. So they're just trying to let the market know that some supply is not an issue. Even with the H20s, these are the chips headed to China. They said that, you know, even with the production of H20s, that's not reducing any of their supply for the H100. So it's not impacting and they can satisfy both markets should the need be there. So they're just putting this out there because they're trying to get ahead of some rumors about them being sold out of supply, which is not true.
- [33:21]
C
I wonder if in any way they thought that maybe what they call chatter, these are the words that they're using from their, you know, the Nvidia newsroom that they, they posted on social media. They use the word chatter.
- [33:33]
G
They use the erroneous chatter in the media.
- [33:36]
C
Are they, are they coming out and refuting that? Because they think maybe that those rumors and the chatter is in part why the stock has traded weak of late.
- [33:48]
G
And then again today the stock, I think that's just a greater move with the chips in general. And you saw, you know, some marvell numbers last week that disappointed Dell. And although AI servers are doing well, I guess it's the narrative of, you know, the capex peak for AI is really weighing on it for Nvidia. The next major movers could be these, these tech conferences in the next week or so. But it was a kind of a situation where so many people, people got into this name before earnings. They got the earnings. It wasn't the blowout quarter that we'd seen in the past. And so now they're getting out. And we've seen this rotation out of chips in general just over the last two weeks. I'm not necessarily sure it's company specific, but you constantly get these headlines coming from China and elsewhere that they're not looking to buy in video chips. So perhaps that's weighing on it as well.
- [34:36]
C
Yeah, I just don't often see companies really give any credit or anything towards rumors or even respond to it. That's what I'll come back to you.
- [34:43]
G
I'll try to find a little bit more on this.
- [34:44]
C
All right, Christina, thanks as always, Christina. Parts of Neville as the headlines now. Silvana now. Hi, Silvana.
- [34:48]
G
Scott, Good afternoon.
- [34:49]
A
A federal grand jury in Washington declined.
- [34:52]
G
To indict a woman accused of threatening.
- [34:54]
A
The president on social media in a motion filed Monday for her release. Lawyers for the woman, Natalie Rose Jones, said the jury didn't find probable cause.
- [35:04]
G
To indict her on the charges, which.
- [35:06]
A
Allegedly included call calling President Trump a terrorist during a voluntary interview with the Secret Service. Grand juries have declined to indict at least six times in recent weeks amid the president's federal crackdown in the city. North Korean state media has confirmed that Kim Jong Un arrived in Beijing today to join Russian leader Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping. The three will attend a military parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the anniversary.
- [35:34]
G
End of World War II.
- [35:36]
A
And California Governor Gavin Newsom launched a major campaign today to change the state's congressional map. So there will be 10 ads circulating on TV and digital by the end of the week which hope to drive turnout for a special election in November when voters will decide on the re mapping question.
- [35:54]
C
Scott? Okay, Silvana, thanks so much, Silvana. Now, coming up, we're taking you inside the private credit booth. Robert Frank standing by with exclusive insights today from one of the biggest players in that space. Halftime's coming right back after this.
- [36:12]
A
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.
- [36:29]
E
Ahead of the NFL season kickoff.
- [36:31]
D
Jerry Jones live and in person with.
- [36:33]
E
Michael Ozanian on the Cowboys rising valuation state of the NFL and the upcoming season closing bell overtime 4 Eastern Thursday and streaming on CNBC. Plus.
- [36:56]
C
Welcome back. The Financial Times reporting today that Apollo Global planning to launch a $5 billion sports investment vehicle, the latest sign that private capital markets are booming. Sports as an asset class continues to boom. Robert Frank is following the money on this as well. Robert yeah, it's sport as an asset class and private credit as an asset class. In fact, private credit up 50% since 2020. Now at $1.5 trillion, it's expected to nearly double in the next five years. Now what started to look as loans to small and fairly risky companies has expanded to the largest corporates and tech giants met AT, AT&T intel, others, all tapping private credit for billions in loans. Apollo Global CEO Mark Rowan said that private credit now is made less risky. But I asked him about returns and fees for investors. Here's what he told us. If private markets do not produce excess returns after fees at the same level of risk, they should not exist. An investor should never take a private alternative to a public alternative if it's not producing excess return per unit of risk. So net of fees, the performance of private markets has outperformed public markets. Are fees higher in private markets?
- [38:13]
D
Yes.
- [38:13]
C
The fundamental difference between a public market asset manager and a private market asset manager, a public market asset manager will.
- [38:21]
D
Take any amount of money you give.
- [38:22]
C
Them and invest it because they get to buy what exists. And what exists reflects 100 years of creation. Now for the full interview with Mark Rowan and learn more about the revolution we're seeing now in alternative investments. You can sign up for the new Inside Alts newsletter out today. The first one, you can become a founding subscriber and you sign up@cnbc.com inside alts or scan that QR code cnbc.com inside alts. Scott? Robert, good stuff. Thank you, Robert. Frank, what do you think?
- [38:54]
D
I think that the private equity space is going to continue to have penetration into sports. Sports are the entertainment vehicle that's not cannibalized by AI. Sports are the last bastion of where you cut back on your spending. When you think about it at the youth level and if you think to yourself, the major sports franchises and the growth in valuation for these franchises, take Jerry Jones as an example. Jerry Jones buys the Cowboys for 150 million somewhere around there. They're now worth north of $10 billion. I'll let you guys figure out what the exact figure is. How do you get liquid on that?
- [39:31]
F
Yeah.
- [39:31]
D
So you reach a moment where, where for an individual like a David Tepper or Stevie Cohen to step forward and buy a franchise, valuations become so exorbitant, it's going to be private equity that's going to have to step in to liquefy and create some of the wealth for these individual owners.
- [39:50]
C
Next, we are counting down to the Ryder Cup. We're following the big money in one of the premier golf events of the season, the, in fact, premier golf event. We're back after this. Later this month, the best golfers from the US And Europe will tee it up at the Ryder cup on the famed Black Horse at Bethpage. It is the first time the New York area has hosted the event in some 30 years. The matches will be broadcast over three days on the networks of NBC, including NBC, Golf Channel USA and streaming on Peacock. Jeff Price is chief commercial and Philanthropy officer for the PGA of America. He joins us here on set. It's great to have you on. We're so excited about it. Obviously.
- [40:39]
H
Great to be here. In 21 days we're going to have spectators entering Bethpage to go in and see the practice rounds. Couldn't be more excited.
- [40:46]
C
I mean, it's one thing to have a Ryder cup in general, is another to have it in the New York area. Bethpage public course, where for those who don't know, you famously have to sleep in your car. You literally do to get a look at this thing and you have the official swag on. I mean, the excitement about having it.
- [41:02]
H
In this area, it's off the charts. The support from the community, the business community has been incredible. We sold out of competition day tickets literally in 48 hours. We sold out of hospitality about six months ago. We have an amazing corporate partner, family companies like Aeon and BMW and Citi, Rolex, SAP, all of those companies activating globally because this truly is a global competition. Europe just named their 12 players yesterday. 11 of those players played in Rome. They took it to us pretty good. But we have Keegan Bradley ready to bring a team that's going to come and fight hard here at Pennsylvania.
- [41:42]
C
He was pretty. He was pretty selfless too, obviously, and not in not picking himself when he.
- [41:47]
H
Really put him over himself and his self interest.
- [41:50]
C
So speaking of hospitality, I mean that, you know, it's what everybody loves, obviously, a little bit of hospitality. And leave it to our friend Kenny Dichter, of course, and his real slx to up that they are literally doing a Rao's pop up out there, like a physical structure that's going to look like Rao's essentially inside the ropes.
- [42:08]
H
We are building rails near the polo fields at Bethpage. Presented by crypto.com. it's going to be Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday night. It's going to be an amazing experience. They've done these at other sporting events. We thought, why would you not bring it to the Ryder Cup? And Kenny and the team and Chef Dino, they're ready to have a great experience.
- [42:27]
C
Yeah, some good meatballs for everybody or at least if you can get a seat, which, which isn't easy. How many people you expect out there?
- [42:34]
H
Gosh, we probably will see up to 50,000 people a day.
- [42:38]
C
A day.
- [42:39]
H
A day at Bethpage. And then, you know, for the for the Rails pop up. We're looking forward to 250 guests a night. You know, there are no reservations, but if you're interested, check out Rao's Never Are at Intersport Global and you can maybe get a reservation or call Kenny.
- [42:54]
C
We're, we're excited. We're hosting an event out there, too. My colleague Dom Chu is going to be there for the final round with a elite group of executives conversation about leadership and team building and finding success no matter how challenging the environment is. You looking forward to that?
- [43:08]
H
We really are. We recognize that Sunday at the Ryder cup there are more CEOs and sweet seed folks than any other event. And CNBC came to us with the idea of let's create a thought leadership opportunity. Obviously, you lead in thought leadership. We were thrilled to be able to partner with you, bring that together for winter. Wonderful execs. It should be a great conversation. And again, our friends at SAP helping to support that.
- [43:30]
C
All right. We're proud of that too. It's good to have you, Jeff. Thanks so much.
- [43:33]
H
Thanks so much for having me. And we're looking forward to a great competition.
- [43:35]
C
Yeah, we'll be watching for sure. Be sure to catch the coverage of the Ryder cup on Golf Channel, NBC, USA Network and Peacock beginning on September 26th. Up next, Antoli with his midday work. Senior markets commentator Michael Santoli is here at post 9 and he says he is scrutinizing we are conventional Wall street wisdom into the final third of the year. What do you mean? What's conventional Wall street wisdom?
- [44:16]
D
I think coming into the the week the conventional wisdom was or at least what the market was priced for was this set of benign rate cuts into a steady economy while the theme also remains strong. So it's kind of like gain without pain. And you're getting tested on all fronts right now. I feel like you guys were talking about the chip gut check that we're getting and the general decline in the leaders. I mean, Microsoft, Nvidia, Matt, are in 8 to 10% corrections right now. Not a big deal given where they're coming from. But with yields up, it's impossible for the rest of the market to take up the slack in a very efficient real time way. So I think all that's going on. I am mindful that August 1st you had a percent and a half decline in the S&P 500 to start a new month that everybody said was going to be a tough month. It was the jobs report day as well as the solidifying the tariff rates day. And that was the low for the month. It looked like it was. Okay, let's buckle up. And it literally was the low from the month. We tested levels from a couple of weeks earlier. We're kind of doing something similar today, testing levels from literally the day before Jackson Hole. That's where we are in the S and P right now. So I feel like it's we priced for a pretty good scenario. We're not quite sure it's going to be clear sailing to those scenarios. And that's what we're trying to contend.
- [45:32]
C
Okay, I'll see you on closing bell. We will continue this conversation with Mike Santori. We'll do finals right here. Next track this market over the final stretch today with Adam Parker, Chris Verone, Cameron Dawson. Mark Short is going to join us as well to talk about what he thinks ultimately happens with the Trump tariff.
- [45:54]
D
So I'll see you then.
- [45:54]
C
Three o' clock Eastern time. Got about 45 seconds or less, Josh. Final trades. What?
- [46:00]
E
Netflix 32 times earnings 32% growth expected.
- [46:05]
C
Thank you. Jason Snipe, Amazon.
- [46:07]
F
I know there's been some concerns on us. I think they'll real sell right here, down 2%.
- [46:13]
C
Mean it's traded better than many of the other of the mega caps, but not by much at this point. Yeah, MPL X lp. Yes, an old look right at Jenny Harrington. I knew it.
- [46:27]
B
Who would do that one? So it's got a a K1, but it's got a 7.5% yield and I think it's out of the fray of tariffs and interest rates right now.
- [46:34]
D
All right, Joe T. The refiner trade is breaking out.
- [46:37]
C
Valero reasonably recent buy. All right, I'll see you on the Bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [46:53]
A
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer@ Capella University. Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.