Trading this Pivotal Week 7/28/25

Summary

Halftime Report: Trading This Pivotal Week (07/28/25) - CNBC Podcast Summary

Release Date: July 28, 2025

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1. Overview of the Week Ahead

Hosted by Scott Wapner, CNBC's Halftime Report delves into the critical trading week ahead, highlighting pivotal events such as mega-cap earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's anticipated decisions, and upcoming jobs data. Wapner emphasizes the significance of these factors in shaping the market's trajectory for the remainder of the trading day and the week.

“Front and center this hour, trading this pivotal week ahead. Mega cap earnings, the Fed decision, jobs report all looming large.” – Scott Wapner [00:33]

2. Market Performance and Current Trends

The discussion opens with an analysis of recent market performance, noting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's continued record extensions, with the Dow approaching its own milestones. Panelists assess whether the market is merely pausing or signaling exhaustion.

“I think it's consistent with a market that's somewhat exhausted, a little bit tired.” – Steve Weiss [01:39]

3. Mega-Cap Earnings Impact

The panel scrutinizes the upcoming earnings reports from tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. Steve Weiss expresses skepticism about whether these earnings will significantly propel the market further, citing a lack of market breadth and enthusiasm.

“But can those mega cap earnings lift and extend this market even further? I am acknowledging the fact that it feels exhausted to me.” – Steve Weiss [02:28]

Jim Leventhal adds that while the economic indicators like the jobs report may not drastically sway the market, the consensus around the Fed's stance keeps the market poised for stability.

“… the economy is operating fine at these rates.” – Jim Leventhal [04:12]

4. Federal Reserve's Outlook

Wapner outlines expectations from the Federal Reserve, projecting no rate hikes in the upcoming meeting and suggesting potential rate cuts in September. This outlook is supported by the positive earnings from Alphabet, indicating robust corporate performance.

“It's not going to raise rates and it's highly likely to telegraph that September is likely to be when they resume rate cuts...” – Scott Wapner [04:57]

5. Valuation Concerns and Market Sentiment

A significant portion of the discussion centers on market valuations. Joe Terranova points out that valuation remains the most substantial headwind, with the S&P 500's earnings yield marginally below the 10-year benchmark.

“Valuation is the stickiest wicket in their words it is the biggest headwind in this market.” – Joe Terranova [11:09]

Steve Weiss emphasizes caution, noting that sentiment and positioning have shifted but valuations need alignment for sustained growth.

“I think you have to remember sentiment positioning and are a much different place than they were six, eight weeks ago.” – Steve Weiss [12:05]

6. Speculative Trading and Momentum vs. Quality

The panel examines the rise in speculative trading activity, with Steve Weiss highlighting the predominance of momentum-driven stocks over quality fundamentals. The discussion touches on companies like Applovin and Palantir, questioning the sustainability of their performance.

“The momentum completely overwhelms the quality factor.” – Steve Weiss [18:23]

Jim Leventhal concurs, suggesting that while speculative trades indicate risk, the focus remains on price momentum rather than fundamental valuations.

“... momentum, it's all about momentum and it has been a stock that has rewarded us in that regard because the momentum has been so strong.” – Steve Weiss [19:10]

7. Specific Stock Analyses

The episode features detailed analyses of individual stocks:

• Adobe (ADBE): Trimmed to $430 from $465 with an outperform rating. Wapner expresses frustration over Adobe's stagnant stock performance despite strong operational metrics.

  “The stock's performance has been absolutely, absolutely lousy.” – Scott Wapner [26:02]

• Arista Networks (ANET): Praised for its role in AI-driven data center expansions, with Steve Weiss noting its significant year-to-date gains.

  “It's up 44%. It is participating in AI data center build out.” – Steve Weiss [32:05]

• Uber (UBER): Highlighted for its leadership in autonomous and robo-taxi sectors, with Jim Leventhal optimistic about upcoming earnings.

  “I think they'll do quite well in the earnings because even though prices have gone up, demand hasn't suffered.” – Jim Leventhal [45:31]

• Procter & Gamble (PG): Discussed in the context of tariff-induced margin pressures, with Steve Weiss attributing recent stock declines to increased costs.

  “A lot of these companies are incurring the cost of the tariff and that is leading to margin components.” – Steve Weiss [40:07]

8. Regulatory and Cryptocurrencies Segment

The podcast also touches on the burgeoning interest in cryptocurrency ETFs, featuring insights from Tucrium Trading's CEO Sal Gilberti. The conversation predicts an ETF boom in the crypto ecosystem, driven by investor enthusiasm and the transformative potential of blockchain technologies.

“Picking the next coin is harder than people need to, but catching the wave of what crypto and the blockchain is doing to business is crucial.” – Sal Gilberti [36:11]

9. Final Market Outlook and Strategies

Michael Santoli concludes the discussion by characterizing the current bull market as entering an "anything goes" phase, driven by a steep and persistent rally. The panel agrees on maintaining a cautious approach, avoiding aggressive buying despite the bullish sentiment.

“Don't be an aggressive buyer here. I think that's the message.” – Steve Weiss [45:13]

Scott Wapner advises maintaining a fully invested stance while selectively trimming high-performing stocks to retain "dry powder" for potential market shifts.

“I've trimmed a few of my winners... I'm just waiting, just taking my time.” – Scott Wapner [22:20]

10. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with reinforcement of a medium-term bullish bias tempered by caution against overextending in a market showing signs of fatigue. The panelists advocate for strategic positioning, focusing on valuations, and being prepared for possible market corrections without succumbing to panic selling.

“The market has climbed the wall of worry... it's likely to be small. Not even a full correction.” – Scott Wapner [07:08]

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• “The investment committee on the case, as always.” – Scott Wapner [00:33]
• “The momentum completely overwhelms the quality factor.” – Steve Weiss [18:23]
• “I don't market time. I want to stay fully invested.” – Scott Wapner [23:54]
• “Picking the next coin is harder than people need to, but catching the wave of what crypto and the blockchain is doing to business is crucial.” – Sal Gilberti [36:11]
• “Don't be an aggressive buyer here. I think that's the message.” – Steve Weiss [45:13]

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Halftime Report episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the market dynamics, investment strategies, and individual stock analyses pertinent to the trading week of July 28, 2025.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

Fidelity Trading Dashboard brings live data, news.

[Joe Terranova]

And charts into one screen so you can build and place trades better. Start for [e-mail] TradingDashboard Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC member NYSE SIPC I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 1212 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, trading this pivotal week ahead. Mega cap earnings, the Fed decision, jobs report all looming large. The investment committee on the case, as always. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal. Joe, we begin with with records. We know that S and P and Nasdaq just continue to extend them. And the Dow is not that far away either. We're at 44. 9. You see it right there. We need to get to 45073 for an intraday record and then we can 45014 close. So we're not that far away. And we do have all this stuff ahead of us this week. How you, how do you size it all up?

[Steve Weiss]

I look at today's price action and I think it's consistent with a market that's somewhat exhausted, a little bit tired. I would have expected a more positive response, a little bit more of a breakout, a little bit more breadth in the market. You're not really seeing that right now. So here we go. Coming into a critical week, Metta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Mega cap earnings, we know about that. I don't think get much from the jobs report or from the Fed meeting. But can those mega cap earnings lift and extend this market even further? I am acknowledging the fact that it feels exhausted to me. I'm not necessarily sure you could do very much with that comment that it feels exhausted because I'm not saying sell out of your positions because ultimately if we enter a correction, it's really a pause that refreshes. I think more than anything else. It's just set your Expectation don't be an aggressive buyer up here.

[Joe Terranova]

Exhaust question implies something more dramatic than a rest like it's why would today. Why would you expect anything different today I guess is my point ahead of everything that we just laid out. What's the market going to make a big move before it gets the earnings, before it hears from the Jay Powell and before it gets the jobs report.

[Steve Weiss]

Listen, you had the news take it for what it's worth over the weekend with the EU and a trade deal there. The futures last night were a lot higher. It looked like the indication was that gold global equity buyers were there, they were willing to participate and that's kind of petered out early in the trading session today. You don't have the broadening out thesis, you don't have the participation from the Russell So when I use the word exhaustion and you suggest that it could mean something deeper. Yeah I think you could easily fall.

[Joe Terranova]

Well if you're 57 sleep for a while if you're just get up you take a power nap and you can.

[Steve Weiss]

Get up when you get set expectation. Look I'm not coming on air right now with the S and P at 6400 and saying I want to be an aggressive buyer up here. I'm just being very. You have to be very measured and you have to acknowledge when it appears as though the market is getting a little tired and might need to pull.

[Joe Terranova]

Back because it doesn't really know what the impact of all of these tariffs is going to be. What is a deal in rhetoric is a tax in practice and you might not find out the ramifications of any of that for months to come. So the market doesn't really know what to make of that. The bias is still higher. Wouldn't you suggest the trend is still up and maybe the events of this week give you some more confirmation as to why that remains the case.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, no I agree, I agree with what Joe said in terms of there's really no bull case for deploying capital here in the short term but, but I don't. I agree with you. I don't think the market's necessarily exhausting now what's going on. You've got a big heavy Newsweek and you just don't know how it's going to turn out. So I think if you take the probability that of two events one being jobs be somewhat of a non event unless it's widely one way or the other versus consensus fomc they're there where they are. Sure you may get some more talk in the Minutes that will eventually come out about let's go, let's go. But you know, frankly the economy is operating fine at these rates.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah.

[Jim Leventhal]

So what's the big variable if you handicap it the most likely to occur And I think it's possibly that with all the price target increases we're seeing including today on the three that are.

[Joe Terranova]

Going to report well, Metta by 775B of a Apple reiterated by 275Amazon target to 71 Microsoft target 650. That's what you're referring to.

[Jim Leventhal]

Exactly. So the market's really been for all the talk of broadening out, this is where it is. Right. So if those disappoint or if they significantly raise capex, not a minor raise in capex, then you could see the mark come under pressure. The odds of the market exploding to the upside for better than expected earnings given that's already been pulled forward, I think is unlikely. No, but, but that's the biggest variable.

[Joe Terranova]

What what may be hanging in the balance more than anything else and why the market could be resting term it however you want. It's that's totally fine is because it needs more confirmation that a broadening can actually happen. Like you get it this week. You get a full the full combination of everything. You get the mega cap earnings. Do you get more confirmation? I don't know why you wouldn't that that's the trade that's going to continue to run. And do you also in the same breath get confirmation that you could have a broadening? Because you know, depending on what Powell says this week and depending on what the jobs report is, you could feel more confident about the direction of interest rates and economic growth in general.

[Scott Wapner]

I think there's a lot of news coming out this week, Scott, and I think most of it we have a solid expectation of what's going to happen. Like you just mentioned the Fed, we have a solid expectation of what the Fed is going to do. Two things. It's it's not going to raise rates and it's highly likely to telegraph that September is likely to be when they resume rate cuts now it's debatable but again there's a higher confidence that that's what they're going to do as opposed to not when we're talking about the mega cap earnings coming up this week I feel that Alphabet was a pretty good tell that both the numbers themselves are going to be good and the capex expectations are going to be raised. I don't think that anybody say a meta can now say, oh, I'm not going to match Alphabet. That's crazy. This is a race for the biggest prize ever in corporate history. So nobody's going to say, oh, I think I'll just sit by the sidelines and let Alphabet spend away with regards to trade deals. You know, we can sit there and say, hey, we haven't done Canada and Mexico yet. We've still got to do China. But the indications are clear where the direction is going. It's tariffs, rates in the mid teens and that should be sufficient enough to offset the cost and the deficit terms of the budget bill without cratering the economy. Now what this all sums up to me and I'm just going to take what Steve and Joe just said and phrase it slightly differently. The market, the market has climbed the wall of worry. When I wake up today, I look at myself and I say, what am I expecting? The only thing that can come in that's a surprise is a negative. That somehow those deals with Canada, Mexico and China don't come through. Or that for some wild reason, which I completely don't expect, the other mega cap tech stocks this week disappoint. I don't think they will. I think that Joe's right. I don't really know the difference between exhaustion and rest. But what I will say this seasonally, this is the time of year where weird stuff happens. I ask everybody to look back a year ago where we had a sudden sell off because of the yen carry unwind which nobody was thinking about. It came, it passed. We might have some unknown like that, but it is likely to be small. Not even a full correction. That's my.

[Steve Weiss]

Let me, let me frame it this way. I'm advising caution here. So you mentioned Alphabet. What was the price response to Alphabet's earnings, which I agree with you, the earnings were strong. The price response hasn't been anything spectacular. Basically running.

[Scott Wapner]

That might be the judicial issue that's coming up with the judicial ruling in August. I'm not really going to disagree with you. I just, actually I was pretty happy with Alphabet. It had a pretty strong run into the, into the number.

[Joe Terranova]

But he's not talking, hold on, he's not talking about the run into the number. He's talking about the run on the numbers.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay.

[Joe Terranova]

I mean the move wasn't, the move wasn't much of a move. I think that's the point that he's making.

[Scott Wapner]

He and I are in agreement that this is a market that's ready for a pause. I just, I think that's the Wrong idiosyncratic case to take. But why don't you keep going?

[Steve Weiss]

Because I want to hear what you're not idiocratic.

[Joe Terranova]

If you look at the move, that's an endemic. If you want to go the moves into the prints, my gosh, these stocks have crushed it over the last three months. Alphabet is one of the worst performers of the group over the last three months into the print and it still didn't have a great reaction on the other side of it. I mean, Microsoft's up 31% in three months. Matters up 31% over the same time period, Amazon's 25.

[Scott Wapner]

And then you're violently, more violently agreeing that this is a tired market. We can phrase it any way we want. Tired, in need of a rest, exhausted, has climbed the wall of worry. This is a market that is due for a consolidation, not a correction. A consolidation. Joe. 5 to 7%. Fine. In terms of the broadening, I do want to say this, all right. The equal weight S&P 500 is 1.7 percentage points away year to date from the S&P 500. And if you look back in 2024, 2023, it was close to 10 percentage points behind at this time each year. This is a market that has been broadening. You know, yes, it's true that megacap has done very well, but if you look at a lot of other sectors, communications, industrials, financials, a lot of other sectors have done well. Even materials of all.

[Jim Leventhal]

You know, the. What you're talking about is how Google Alphabet performed afterwards. That's endemic of the market. That's why we're not seeing, we don't know what the substance of this trade agreement is with the eu. But if you'd gone.

[Joe Terranova]

We don't know the substance, frankly of many of the.

[Jim Leventhal]

No, of any of them.

[Joe Terranova]

Action announced. If anything, the most positive thing to come out of it is just taking that specific thing off of the, off the card.

[Jim Leventhal]

Right, but, but my point is that if it had been two, three months ago, you would have seen the market have a much bigger move. So what's been endemic of the market? What, what's really the hallmark of this market is the pull through. So we pulled through on the earnings and referencing your comments on the, on the other mega cap performance. That's why I said earlier, unless you see something big one way or the other, the stocks aren't going to do much. So the market just anticipated all this, which goes to your conversation about the valuation levels. You need a lot more really, really good unexpected news. To get the market can of course.

[Joe Terranova]

Today says that valuation is the stickiest wicket in their in their words it is the biggest headwind in this market. It's not earnings, it's not anything else. It is valuation. The earnings yield on The S&P 500 of 4.15% remains marginally below the 10 year at 4.38. And we note that this condition of a negative equity risk premium has not occurred since 2000.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott, you we should not be expecting multiple expansion trading at 21 times calendar year 2026 estimates. What we should be looking for is those estimates to rise which is they have started to do after going down all year. They are higher now than they were three months ago. Next year's earnings $300 a share. That's the macro estimate. The aggregate estimate from fact set it was 298 just three months ago. And as the results keep coming in from the second quarter I think we're going to see those full year estimates for next year creep up where 21 is not the actual multiple that we're looking at.

[Steve Weiss]

I think you have to remember sentiment positioning and are a much different place than they were six, eight weeks ago. For sure. Sentiment is overtly bullish. Positioning is overtly bullish.

[Joe Terranova]

I don't know. Overtly is another questionable word. I mean you really feel that way. Tom Lee continues to come on the network and suggest this is still a hated V shaped recovery that institutional that's investors are not fully invested in the market.

[Jim Leventhal]

I've been hearing that.

[Joe Terranova]

But it's factual. It's factual that you still don't have full buy in from institutional investors and hedge funds.

[Jim Leventhal]

You don't funds. No. But hedge funds have missed everything. They're hedge funds because they're hedge. So they never so rarely are they going to have exposure. Net long exposure 100% or 90% sure.

[Joe Terranova]

But I don't even know necessarily if long only have fully fully committed only.

[Jim Leventhal]

Long onlys aren't the asset allocators. So they've got.

[Joe Terranova]

The point is that I don't I would take issue with using the word overtly bullish. The feeling that I get and the people that we talk to is there's still a healthy dose of skepticism not overt bullishness I don't know about.

[Jim Leventhal]

I think they're overtly whining, okay because they are participating, the market is going higher and their their deployment of their capital is what it should be along their guidelines.

[Steve Weiss]

I think I think I'm seeing a lot of reversal in that Skepticism I'm thinking think I'm seeing a lot of speculation in places of the market that get me a little bit uncomfortable. And again I want to emphasize activity.

[Joe Terranova]

I mean okay, let's go there. Let's talk about the speculative trade because remember Goldman had the note out the other day that we brought up to you, quote, the recent rise in speculative trading activity signals near term upside risk for the broad equity market. They also say that increases the risk of an eventual downturn. We bring it up today again because Applovin reiterated outperform the ark innovation fund arkk up 36% year to date. Weiss, I'm not sure that we've gotten your full view on this run that we've had in lower quality and highly speculative parts of the market and whether that's something to be concerned about because if that leg of this four legged chair, not Jim's three legged stool that he tried to introduce in the same part of the conversation last week to which I repudiated that immediately, if that leg breaks, the chair becomes unstable.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah. And that typically is a sign that the quality is maxed out in evaluation. And then when the lower quality we say junk starts to rise, it's searching for performance because you've missed what's above. So, so it is a little bit troubling. But I also continue to believe that this is a market that just doesn't look at valuation as we used to collectively. You know, it's sort of like it's a side conversation. It's what strategists talk about because they've been involved in for a long time. But it's really agnostic is momento fundamentals and momentum of price that drives the.

[Joe Terranova]

Because you can't, you can't really, you can't just make a blanket statement anymore given the mega caps and the outsized weighting that they have and where their valuations are relative to the equal weight S&P 500. You can't make a blanket statement anymore and say the market's overvalued because people will come right back at you and say well six stocks are maybe richly valued or more valued than all this 493 where they're still undervalued.

[Jim Leventhal]

But I take a look for example what Caterpillar has done and I own Caterpillar and Caterpillar's done very well. I think Caterpillar is fairly valued. So when so sure you're always going to find stocks, companies that you can buy that are discount. But overall, you know, and I don't want to say they're that way for, for a reason. I don't believe in the efficient market theory that, that you have basically Vanguard and all the others. So there's always values. But when you take a look at where most of the capital goes, where the institutional portfolios go, I think you're pretty much fully valued.

[Joe Terranova]

Oppenheimer raises the year end target on the S and p today to 7100 from 5950. So we blew past the 5950. 7100 people would take that from here.

[Steve Weiss]

That's right. Heck of a finish to the year. I believe to get there you would have to have the broadening out. You mentioned valuation on the S and P. The valuation on the equal at S and P is somewhere around 18 times, which is far more reasonable than that. I also think why do you need.

[Joe Terranova]

The broadening out to get there?

[Steve Weiss]

Because I just don't know if you're going to get a further multiple expansion from those seven stocks.

[Joe Terranova]

Isn't that what this week is all about? That's, that's in part what we're going to learn term.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, I think in the near term it is. But again, I don't know know if you're going to see today and I looked last week again as my, my individual opinion, the price action in Alphabet, the earnings were phenomenal. The reaction to it and there's a classic example in my opinion of a equity name there was built in skepticism. Myself and others had that skepticism. Jimmy, I know you took the other side of that. Congratulations and you were rewarded for it. But I don't think you saw the type of price action that you should have been stuck on the other side of that. And I think you could get very strong earnings this week. I think you could get further price appreciation. But I think you're going to run into the ceiling at a certain point and I'm just urging cautiousness. Also understand market structure has changed. 2025 is about momentum. You mentioned AppLovin. Okay. The ETF owns AppLovin from $76. I've never once come on this network and said we own Applovin for some fundamental reason. It's $120 billion market cap. It's the largest company not in the s and P500. And on the fundamental side, there are a lot of challenges in front of it. You have the Muddy Waters allegations. I'll let Muddy Waters and Applovin's management deal with that. But I've never said it's been the fundamentals that's driving it forward. It's all about momentum.

[Joe Terranova]

How do you deem it? Quality, Your etf, the momentum, quality and momentum?

[Steve Weiss]

Absolutely, Scott. The momentum completely overwhelms the quality factor. So if you take a composite score on momentum and then you take the composite score on quality, it's almost as if the quality score would have to be so detrimental to weaken the strength of the momentum score. You take a company like crapped on the fundamentals of this company, Applovin or Palantir. No, I've, I said, I've never come on the air and said it is the fundamentals the reason that we own the stock. I've never defended the fundamentals. I'm not questioning the fundamentals. I'm taking the fundamentals. I'm putting them over there for the analyst community to look at. I'm saying the reasoning behind us owning the stock has purely been momentum and it has been a stock that has rewarded us in that regard because the momentum has been so strong.

[Joe Terranova]

But if you don't think that, that it meets the quality metric, then you've increased your own risk profile in this particular name. Because momentum as we know can reverse it at any moment.

[Steve Weiss]

Absolutely it can. And there have been times that this stock actually has reversed its momentum. Remember, it was a 500 plus dollar stock in February and I think post earnings it fell from there. It's had a little bit of a bounce. We'll see as we move through the course of time and we measure the different time frames of momentum where the momentum score rests for this company. But I'm telling you that in the last 12 months there is maybe Palantir. There's no other individual name we own that has a higher momentum score.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay. J.P. morgan's trading desk has a note out today pointing to the fact that the S and P has rallied more than 25% over the past 75 days. That is the largest 75 day rally since the rebound from the COVID lows. Forward looking returns after a rally like this are quite strong. A year later the index was higher every single time with an average return of around 20%. I mean that's why you start getting Weiss big numbers thrown around of where some think this market can go.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, Once a few years ago I looked at this because I was, you know, I kept hearing, well, the market was up 25% last year, is up 30%, can't possibly be up another 25 or 30. That's actually not what history tells you. Where the market's had a big Move that it typically does have another big move two years following. Last year was a good year. But you shouldn't attempt to judge the future by saying we've had such a big move. It all depends on what. It depends really on what the negatives are out there and what the wall of worry builds up to with new events than it does because the path leads of least resistance is always higher.

[Joe Terranova]

Pascarello. Today the core directional bias is to be long US equities that both professionals and civilians will remain sponsors of stocks.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, but just let me just point real quick. But that's where you always get slipped up and you can't predict when you're getting slipped up because there's always this exogenous event that comes along and that's what really catches you. But you can't guard against that. You just can't do it.

[Joe Terranova]

If you were afraid of that, you'd never invest in anything.

[Jim Leventhal]

Exactly.

[Scott Wapner]

Exactly. I totally agree with what you just said. It's what I was trying to say earlier about. Remember last summer, a completely unexpected exogenous event, the Yankee on white. Who knows? Who knows what will happen August. But what I've been doing and what you can do, you've heard me say many times, I don't market time. I want to stay fully invested. But what I have done, and I've talked about this over the last several weeks, is I've trimmed a few of my winners. Oracle, J.P. morgan, Scott, I know we want to talk about Cheniere later. I'll just simply say that I trimmed it last week. What I've done is instead of recycling that immediately into some stocks that I love but maybe haven't done as well is I'm just waiting, just taking my time. Now, I haven't built a huge cash position. It's about 5%. I might take it to 7%. Anything higher than that. You're getting into market timing and it's dangerous. But to have a little bit of dry powder for Steve, what you just said, everybody. I think this is what you just said. Everybody's piling on and I feel like you're trying.

[Joe Terranova]

And see, in a sense though, you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. Like you are timing, you're trying to time the market because as you said at the top of the program and you threw it out. Like I feel like a little cavalier. 5 to 7% pull back, no big whoop. 5 to 7% from where we are now would be a little bit painful.

[Scott Wapner]

It'd be a little bit painful. But guess what? You don't invest unless you have pain. I'll hear you. There is a little bit of talking out of both sides of my mouth. But consider the number. Well, listen, I got to live in the real world. We all do. Let me just go through the numbers. Let's just say, say that the market goes up 10% from here and I have 5% cash. I've lost one half of 1% in terms of relative performance. If I did something nutty like say, oh, I think I'll do 25% cash. That's a much bigger underperformance. What I'm saying to you is I'm willing to take that very small underperformance of risk to have a little bit of dry powder if something goes wrong and be able to pounce. You know what I hate? You know what I really hate is two things. One, writing stocks up and down, and then at the bottom saying, I'm selling something that's got crushed to buy something else that's to going. Got crushed. I don't like it. I'm not going to do it.

[Joe Terranova]

All right, let's. We'll take a break.

[Jim Leventhal]

Okay?

[Joe Terranova]

Right, let's.

[Jim Leventhal]

I'm not ready to take a break.

[Joe Terranova]

I want to keep going. You have something to say about his. His stalking out of both sides of his mouth?

[Jim Leventhal]

You have to take a break then.

[Joe Terranova]

No, let's do it before the break. Yeah, we still have some time.

[Scott Wapner]

Look at the gleam in his eye.

[Joe Terranova]

I haven't been yelled at yet in my ear.

[Silvana Hanow]

We have time.

[Jim Leventhal]

I will say equivocating is a valuable tool for some people on the desk.

[Scott Wapner]

Live in the real world. I am. I'm not saying anybody isn't. Don't go nuts here. Live in the world. We gotta make decisions. I'm making decisions. I'll live by that.

[Jim Leventhal]

He's making decisions not to make decisions.

[Scott Wapner]

No, I applaud that I made decisions to trim winners. I will live with the ramifications if I'm wrong. And you know who will keep my feet to the fire? You. And you and you and I. Live with it. I'm fine with it.

[Jim Leventhal]

I have no intention of touching his feet, like, ever. You know, you guys can do that.

[Joe Terranova]

All right, I'm not being yelled at, but I'm being urged to go. Yes, sir. All right, we'll do our calls of the day. Next, foreign.

[Dom Chu]

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[Scott Wapner]

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[Joe Terranova]

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[Steve Weiss]

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[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I'm on my. Yeah I know I'm on my last, my last nerve with this stock. I mean it's the company's operational performance has been fine. The stock's performance has been absolutely, absolutely lousy. I'm giving it one more earnings report. That's it. I Mean, look, they keep.

[Joe Terranova]

They're going to fix everything in one earnings report.

[Scott Wapner]

No, it's not. It's not that. There's something that they need to fix.

[Steve Weiss]

It's like getting cannibalized by AI.

[Scott Wapner]

No, they're not, Joe. I know that. I. Sorry, I don't mean to get so uproarious.

[Joe Terranova]

You. Please, Ken.

[Scott Wapner]

It's allowed in this courtroom that that would be the conclusion from the stock price reaction.

[Jim Leventhal]

That would be uproarious for you. That was uproarious.

[Joe Terranova]

Go ahead, carry on.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, look, it's actually not. That's what the thing is, is the stock keeps reacting like, well, the next quarter they're going to get their lunch eaten by whomever. It's not happening quarter after quarter. But what's also not happening is the stock isn't getting any respect. This is not a hill. I want to die on one more quarterly report. It either responds positively or I'm done.

[Steve Weiss]

OK. Revenue growth, that's now down to somewhere around 10%. Look in front of me. This is a company that had revenue growth 20, 25%.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Steve Weiss]

Three, four or five years ago. Prior. Why the significant deceleration in revenue, where is it coming from?

[Scott Wapner]

Well, it's a. It's a bigger company. I mean, you ever heard of a PDF portable document format? Ever heard of it? I mean, you know, the law of large numbers. I'm just having some fun with you. Don't get. Don't get quirky with me.

[Joe Terranova]

Go ahead.

[Scott Wapner]

The law of large numbers says that eventually growth rates tap out a little bit, but it's still growing and I think.

[Joe Terranova]

And it's blaming the decline. No, come on.

[Scott Wapner]

It's an 18 times multiple. It's reflecting a 10%.

[Joe Terranova]

Objection, your honor. Yes, sustained. You're blaming the decline in revenue growth on the fact that it's a bigger company than. What are you in 10 years ago then? He's not talking about 10 years.

[Scott Wapner]

Five years ago. Every company faces declining growth rates. What's the growth rate of in video right now versus two years ago? I mean, two years ago we were talking about Nvidia doubling earnings every year. Now we're down to 40%. This is just what happens. You don't grow.

[Jim Leventhal]

You have to show to keep multiple. But look, this is squarely in the sights of AI and we've seen some replication or some duplication of what they do in terms of the PDF. So right now there's uncertainty. And this is where complacency did come in, because you still have Wallace and 18 multiple, which is traditionally is very, very cheap for this company. We just don't know where it shakes out with AI What's a two year.

[Joe Terranova]

What does a two year chart look like on that? Can we, can we have a look? What's the return over two years?

[Steve Weiss]

One year. It's down 31%. Let's look at two years.

[Joe Terranova]

What's. What's the two year return? Because I mean. Percent. Okay, so it's down 30% in two years.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

We literally are in the 30 throes of the largest technological advancement in humankind. The way we're going to live, work and do everything else. Theoretically since the birth of the Internet. Right. Much of the gain for those stocks has taken place in the last two years. The stock's down 30% in two years. What do you know that the market doesn't know over the last two years.

[Scott Wapner]

That the multiple has come down all of that time because the company has actually shown good operational performance. The share price hasn't reflected. I mean these are two facts. That's why the multiple has come down. Another, another quasi fact is that one more earnings report and I'm done with this if it doesn't respond. Look, the long term earnings growth projection on this, we're not going to try.

[Joe Terranova]

And I'm not trying to talk you into selling a stock.

[Scott Wapner]

No, no, no, no, no.

[Joe Terranova]

I already talk you defending something what I can't get again, where maybe the writing's on the wall.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. And you might be right. What I can't defend and what I can't predict is how the share price will respond to good results. And frankly, that's what any manager of any company that's worth investing in should say is I'm going to focus on running my business the most profitable way and the most growth oriented way that I can. But what I can't control is the same share.

[Joe Terranova]

When was the last time you bought more of this stock?

[Scott Wapner]

Within the last three months. I know I announce everything I do on air. I know I bought.

[Joe Terranova]

I just don't remember.

[Scott Wapner]

That's why I know it's.

[Steve Weiss]

I feel like on the earnings conference call, the analysts the first question is going to be how are you going to defend and compete against AI to my point, yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

That's been the call on every single call.

[Steve Weiss]

But you're saying it doesn't.

[Jim Leventhal]

Overhead does. Look, the primary target of the Internet turned out to be retail. Right. Really dislocated retail. It made a lot of what were winners into losers. And it's never been the same. The primary target of AI is software. There will be some winners. We don't even know who they will be at this point. But a lot of what's being done now through an Adobe and through others will be able to be done internally.

[Joe Terranova]

We. I'm looking for that. We've given Jim a lot of business.

[Scott Wapner]

We have time for another call.

[Joe Terranova]

I'm looking for one that we can could give Joe some business on. Okay, what's arista Networks done? Targets 137. It was 103 buy at Melius. I don't have the performance in front of me as Arista Networks done good. Is it done well?

[Steve Weiss]

What are you looking at?

[Scott Wapner]

One year.

[Steve Weiss]

It's up 44%. You want year to date?

[Joe Terranova]

All right. It's up year to date. Up 4%.

[Steve Weiss]

Up 4%. It is participating in AI data center build out. Obviously there's a strong need for networking. I would acknowledge that. Jimmy's Cisco. Jimmy, I'm going to butter you. Butter you up here.

[Joe Terranova]

Why are you trying to deflect?

[Steve Weiss]

Well, I'm not deflecting. I'm acknowledging Cisco's up 14% year to.

[Joe Terranova]

No, you deflect.

[Steve Weiss]

So Cisco has a little bit more of a market presence in networking and benefiting in the data center build out. But Aristotle Network, it's working there as well. They report earnings on August 1st 5th. We've owned it for quite some time in the ETF. It's done well for us.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, we'll do ETF Edge next.

[Steve Weiss]

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[Sal Gilberti]

We are back on halftime. I'm Silvana Hanow with your CNBC news update. Michigan authorities say they are looking to file terrorism charges and 11 charges of assault with intent to murder after a suspect this weekend carried out a knife attack at a Walmart, injuring 11 people. The suspect was detained by customers, including one armed with a pistol. He's expected to be arraigned at some point today or tomorrow. Insurance giant Allianz Life says hackers stole personal information for the majority of its customers, financial professionals and some employees. In a filing this weekend, Allianz says the incident was discovered two weeks ago and the company says hackers gained access through a third party system. It's working with the FBI and has started reaching out to the affected people. Allianz Life has roughly 1.4 million US customers and Marvel's the Fantastic Four first steps topping the weekend box office, earning an estimated $118 million in its debut. Now that makes it the fourth largest opening this year behind a Minecraft movie, Lilo and Stitch and Superman. It's also the biggest for Marvel since Deadpool and Wolverine opened with $211 million last year.

[Joe Terranova]

Scott, Big opening Soviet. All right, so now thanks so much for that. Dom Chu has today's ETF edge as advertised.

[Silvana Hanow]

All right, so Scott, from adoption driven by Washington to a 10 year birthday coming later on this week, there's a lot going on in cryptocurrencies. Joining me now is Sal Gilberti, the president and CEO of Tucrium Trading. This is an interesting development. You're one of the firms out there that runs a slate of ETFs, but one of them is a levered fund tied to the value of a big cryptocurrency and that's xrp. Just what can you tell us about how much investor interest there is in xrp? And of course a levered instrument to it.

[I]

Well, thank you, Don. There's enormous interest in xrp. They call it the XRP army and I realize they call it that for a reason. We launched this fund, it'll be 16 weeks tomorrow. And the money that's come in is, is quite extraordinary. Hundreds of millions of dollars have come in. It is our most successful fund. We're 16 years old today when I incorporated the company coincidentally, and we've never seen a response like that.

[Silvana Hanow]

How did you make the turn? Because the slate of products you have are mainly agricultural based and then you decide to venture out into cryptocurrency, specifically xrp. What was the thinking there?

[I]

Well, we had, we had filed for Bitcoin before and we do have crypto interests. And so, and I'm an XRP enthusiast and when, when I saw the, the opportunity to file and get it approved and really not holding XRP itself but holding the derivatives so that we could leverage it and Give investors what they want. They clearly want some leverage. We got a great ticker, double xrp, xxrp and it took off. It was a big hit immediately right out the door.

[Silvana Hanow]

And if you could put on a forecasting hat as somebody who looks at the fundamental flows, look at the industry, where do you think else in the crypto sphere is ripe for even more activity with regard to cryptocurrencies? That's outside the realm of xrp, Etherium and of course Bitcoin.

[I]

Honestly, I think picking the next coin is harder than people need to catch the wave of what crypto and the blockchain is doing to business. This really is the Internet in the 1990s. I think there's a see change coming and picking the companies that are going to use whatever cryptocurrency comes next is going to be the big trick and the trick to big wealth.

[Silvana Hanow]

Do you think that there is going to be an ETF boom in companies in that ecosystem?

[I]

No question.

[Joe Terranova]

All right.

[Silvana Hanow]

All right, Sal Gilbert. We're going to continue this conversation with sal over@etf edge.cnbc.com Sal is going to be joined by Eric Pan, who is the president and CEO of ici, the investment company Inside Institute, the biggest advocacy group for these ETF and mutual fund companies to talk changing regulations beyond just crypto and more. Scott, I'll send things back over to you guys.

[Joe Terranova]

All right, good stuff, Dom. Thanks for that. Dom Chew. We'll do the setup next. Foreign let's do the setup. These are companies that are reporting within the next 24 hours. It is a much bigger week than just the mega caps. Spotify is Tomorrow Morning Joe up 50%.

[Steve Weiss]

The 56% year to date. Digital streaming Audio streaming is very strong right now. I think the most interesting thing about this company is the fact that their competition has focus elsewhere. So it's Apple and Amazon. Apple and Amazon not necessarily spending so much to grow their audio streaming platform right now. So they're in a good position. You've had a 10% pullback here in the month of July which gives you you an opportunity to get back into a company if you're not in yet, which I believe over the long term is going to continue to build upon its streaming growth.

[Joe Terranova]

The Hartford Hartford insurance is today after.

[Steve Weiss]

The bell Insurance has not been particularly good in this earnings season. In particular for property and casualty. We're seeing catastrophic losses are higher. I'm going to be careful here with my words but for sure the insurance companies that we own in the ETF are somewhat momentum Challenged in the near term.

[Joe Terranova]

So the ones you own are a little suspect.

[Steve Weiss]

Momentum challenged.

[Joe Terranova]

All right. He has to be careful. I don't want to. I don't want to get him in.

[Steve Weiss]

Any more Wednesday, we rebound.

[Joe Terranova]

I do, but I really don't ask AstraZeneca before the bell tomorrow. Jimmy, that's you.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I expect decent earnings. I don't think this is a stock that really moves on the earnings releases. It's really when fervor comes back to the pharmaceutical space. Like many pharmaceuticals, this is a very cheap stock at 15 times forward earnings, 2.1% dividend yield. But it has a very wide array of therapies that it treats. It's got a good pipeline. So I can't really say, Scott, that the earnings are going to kill it tomorrow. I don't think they'll disappoint. It's just a long, slow burner for me.

[Joe Terranova]

P and G is Tomorrow, Joe, down.

[Steve Weiss]

6% year to date. I don't know. I mean, I think, Steve, they're eating the tariff costs. I think they are. That's exactly what's going on. What the challenge is right now for this company and the reason why it's down year to date. A lot of people like to point towards interest rates and say you need lower interest rates for consumer staples to work. No, I don't think it's that. I think it's margin compression directly related to eating the cost on tariffs.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, I mean, staples aren't exactly in favor either. I mean, maybe it has a lot to do with that and people are.

[Steve Weiss]

Trying to determine the reasoning. Is it interest rate related? Potentially, yes. But I think it's more about. A lot of these companies are incurring the cost of the tariff and that is leading to margin components.

[Joe Terranova]

Money is going to comm services, it's going to financials, it's going to tech, it's going to utilities because of AI and it's going to industrials.

[Steve Weiss]

I would agree with that. That's a fair statement. I'm also.

[Joe Terranova]

Tariffs haven't even been in place that long for company. Company.

[Steve Weiss]

Procter & Gamble rolled over in March.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay.

[Steve Weiss]

The beginning stages of what we were preparing for with the tariffs in early March, we knew that tariffs were going to be coming in the next 30 days. And that's when Procter and Gamble and some of these other companies rolled over.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay. Royal Cross Caribbean, that's tomorrow as well.

[Steve Weiss]

Benefiting from not just the domestic consumer, but the global consumer, which has remained remarkably strong and also a fantastic turnaround. In the balance sheet. Think about where this company was five years ago.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, Weiss UnitedHealth. Now it's time to give you the business tomorrow before the bell. What's your defense of this one now?

[Jim Leventhal]

I'm not defending it. I have no idea what they're going to do.

[Joe Terranova]

But you own it, that means. And you bought more of it. So then you're a de facto defender of it through your actions.

[Jim Leventhal]

Fortunately, it wasn't a huge position and unfortunately it's gotten fair.

[Joe Terranova]

I'm armed with everything fair you can try to fly. Look, I am going easy over there, Bob Hope. Just let's get back to the. I would get back to the story.

[Jim Leventhal]

Your allergy to fashion is, is unbecoming. Look, I would, I don't, I don't know. I would hope. And my, my thought is that they will set the, the bar very low. The federal lawsuit is going to go on for a long time and ultimately they'll settle and won't impact the company.

[Joe Terranova]

You don't think the stock's in the penalty box during that period?

[Jim Leventhal]

I think, I think partially, but it doesn't mean it can't go up. If they set the bar low enough and it's already set pretty low by the share price, I think the stock could move higher. It becomes a good trade. So could, could it get up to. Could it go past 300, which is. I got in about three or four. Sure it can, but it won't be tomorrow. It's like be one day. And the overhang will stay there.

[Joe Terranova]

All right. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back. Look forward to talking to Mike Santoli next and getting his big view of this market. We'll do it right after this break. We're back. Michael Santoli here at Post nine for his midday word in which you declare this bull market having entered the anything goes phase.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I mean, a lot of what.

[J]

We'Ve been looking at and talking about the last couple of weeks shows a much more uninhibited market, let's put it that way. And maybe it's to be expected just given the steepness and the duration and the persistence of this rally we've had for a few weeks. But the way that the stampedes have cleaned out the shorts and just gone to every little low quality, heavily shorted stock, we've talked about, you know, some of the other meme revivals.

[Scott Wapner]

So all that stuff is in almost.

[J]

One lane of this market. And I think it must give you a little bit of pause to say look, good news is not going to come as a surprise to this market and I think you're seeing broadly speaking a little bit more of a neutral setup. I think you have to respect the boring grind higher in the S&P 500 up all every day last week and three of the up days were less than 2, 10 of 1%. However, today is also instructive in the sense that you get your EU deal and the market shrugs because guess what? We already figured this out. That the market was already sort of postured for good things or at least not restrained by fear of the. What the trade deal.

[Joe Terranova]

The least worst case. Yeah, I think is how I've read some of the.

[J]

And if we have some give back economically with inflation, whatever, that's months and quarters ahead and the market's okay with it. So I think you have to be aware that we've. We've gotten to a perch that says we have some people bowled up and maybe that energy is actually even flagging a little bit. You see the last couple of days some of the meme stuff has come up the boil and we've talked about the self corrective nature of that at times where you know, basically the fever breaks after a little while.

[Joe Terranova]

You have a thought on that.

[Steve Weiss]

I love what Michael is saying. He's reiterating everything that we said at the top of the show and I think it's indicative of not so much. Okay, here comes the correction. You need to bail out of everything. Just don't be an aggressive buyer here. I think that's the message.

[Joe Terranova]

All right. All right, good stuff. We'll do final. Thanks. All right, we'll do finals in just a moment, but we do have a move. Mr. Weiss, you're back in Uber again.

[Jim Leventhal]

I am.

[Joe Terranova]

Tell me more.

[Jim Leventhal]

Look, I think they've got definitely the pole position in autonomous and robo taxis. Much more so than Tesla if you got the right cost profile because they're not picking up the cost. Waymo is. So I think they'll do quite well in, in in the earnings because even though prices have gone up, you know, from what I'm hearing demand hasn't suffered. So it all adds up to put up a good quarter.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay, thanks for the update. What a year up more than 50%. What's your final trade?

[Jim Leventhal]

Well, Taiwan said when you're going to hear about the Capex schedules Taiwan sent me when the plays the president of Taiwan had delays trip that won't matter.

[Joe Terranova]

Okay.

[Scott Wapner]

Farmer Jim Wynn resorts four successively higher highs this year. It's 1% away from the 52 week high and then it breaks out from there.

[Joe Terranova]

All right, Joe T. Like buying the.

[Steve Weiss]

Refiners here, especially as we come into hurricane season. You got the price of oil muted in the mid-60s.

[Joe Terranova]

Good stuff. Thanks everybody. Exchange begins now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only.

[VRBO Advertiser]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer Bubba Wallace.

[Steve Weiss]

Here with Tyler Redick. You know what's more nerve wracking than waiting for qualifying results?

[Silvana Hanow]

Waiting for the green flag to drop?

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