CNBC’s Halftime Report: Trump Tariffs Hit the Economy (April 30, 2025)

Hosted by Scott Wapner

1. Introduction and Economic Overview

In the April 30, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner delves into the pressing issue of how President Trump’s tariffs are impacting the U.S. economy. Joined by a panel of esteemed analysts—Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, Steve Weiss, and Jim Leventhal—the discussion centers around the recent economic indicators pointing towards potential stagflation and the subsequent reactions in the stock market.

2. Market Analysis and GDP Report

Scott opens the discussion by highlighting alarming economic data:

• GDP: The first negative read since 2022 ([00:59]).
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): Higher than expected.
• ADP Employment Numbers: The lowest since July ([01:45]).
• Chicago PMI: The weakest since January.

These indicators collectively paint a picture of a fragile economy grappling with stagnation amidst inflationary pressures.

Carrie Firestone emphasizes the complexity of the current environment: “The word of the day once again appears to be stagflation” ([01:45]). She further underscores the resilience of certain sectors despite the softening economy, noting that some companies have provided better-than-expected guidance.

3. Trade War and Tariffs Impact

The panel acknowledges that the ongoing trade war initiated by tariffs is a significant drag on economic growth. Joe Terranova argues that the main concern lies with economic growth rather than inflation, viewing the latter as a temporary sticker shock. He states, “There is elasticity between that sticker shock and what consumers are ultimately going to do” ([02:08]).

Steve Weiss and Jim Leventhal discuss the delicate balance the market is attempting to maintain, with Weiss pointing out that the S&P has been on a six-day upward streak despite looming trade deal uncertainties ([04:07]).

4. Panelists' Perspectives on Investment Strategies

Joe Terranova recommends focusing on companies with strong balance sheets capable of repurchasing stocks and maintaining qualitative stability in such an environment. He suggests prioritizing the bond market, viewing it as a near-term opportunity amid economic uncertainties ([02:08]).

Jim Leventhal counters by advising capital protection, asserting that “times do get different” and emphasizing the importance of safeguarding investments against potential market downturns ([07:51]).

Rick Reeder of BlackRock provides a nuanced view, explaining that while the market isn’t as overvalued as it once was, the potential for a deeper recession remains a concern, though he maintains a cautiously optimistic stance.

5. Earnings Reports and Stock Analysis

The discussion shifts to specific stocks and earnings reports, with a focus on major players like Meta (formerly Facebook) and Microsoft.

Julia Boorstin from CNBC highlights Meta’s current challenges:

• Stock Performance: Up 26% in the past year but down 27% from its all-time high.
• Revenue Growth: Expected to slow to 13.5%, down from 21% in the previous quarter.
• Ad Revenue Concerns: Potential $7 billion loss from the Chinese market alone ([16:28]).

The panel debates Meta’s future prospects, especially its investments in AI and the new standalone Meta app. Steve Weiss notes, “For many years it had that mid-30s multiple because it was intellectual property. Now with these data centers, it's becoming a little bit more asset-heavy” ([23:18]).

Microsoft is another focal point, with Jim Leventhal expressing concerns over its recent performance despite its reputation as a "permanent compounder." He mentions, “They have great management teams. They're not always going to be perfect and be able to navigate through the dark winds and the dark times that we see” ([21:22]).

6. Regulatory Concerns and Company Outlooks

Regulatory issues also come under scrutiny, particularly Meta’s ongoing FTC trial. Julia Boorstin explains that investors are keenly watching how geopolitical uncertainties and tariffs affect Meta’s advertising revenue and AI investments ([17:49]).

Joe Terranova adds that the market has likely priced in the expectation of trade deals, suggesting that any actual agreements may be short-lived and not significantly alter the current economic trajectory ([12:14]).

7. Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events

As the episode nears its end, Scott Wapner highlights upcoming earnings reports and significant events, including the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. Mike Santoli provides midday market commentary, reinforcing the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policies and the broader economic outlook ([39:21]).

Steve Weiss concludes with thoughts on energy stocks like ExxonMobil, emphasizing its resilience due to scale and dividend yield despite low oil prices ([36:53]).

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Wapner ([02:05]): “Tariff turmoil sending GDP into the red. Stocks selling off a bit as the President's trade war now leading to big questions about where this economy is heading.”

• Joe Terranova ([02:08]): “You want to look at your equity holdings and ensure that you own companies that have strong balance sheets that can buy back their stocks.”

• Jim Leventhal ([07:51]): “It's time to protect capital... My base case is that the market goes lower.”

• Rick Reeder ([06:45]): “Apollo is one of the premier private equity companies with a focus on fixed income. It was down 30%. It's a stock we've been watching for the last couple of years.”

• Julia Boorstin ([16:28]): “Investors are watching the broader ad market, whether Meta is seeing signs of weakness amid so much uncertainty.”

• Joe Terranova ([12:14]): “I think the market actually is priced in the fact we're going to get deals so it's going to be short-lived.”

Conclusion

The April 30 episode of Halftime Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic strain caused by Trump-era tariffs, highlighting concerns of stagflation and a fragile stock market. The panelists offer diverse perspectives on navigating this tumultuous environment, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment choices and cautious optimism amidst ongoing trade uncertainties. As the economy continues to evolve, the insights shared offer valuable guidance for investors seeking to mitigate risks while identifying potential opportunities.