What's Riding on Micron Earnings? 6/24/26

Summary

Halftime Report – "What's Riding on Micron Earnings?"

CNBC • Host: Scott Wapner • Date: June 24, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the anticipation surrounding Micron’s imminent earnings report, considered by the panel as the single most important tech earnings release since Nvidia. Scott Wapner is joined by panelists Joe Kernen, Thomas, and Steve Weiss to break down the stakes for Micron, the semiconductor sector, and broader tech equities. The discussion extends to market rotations, the outlook for cyclicals and defensives, sector-specific calls, and breaking political and corporate news.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Micron’s Moment: Why These Earnings Matter

• Micron’s outsized influence: The panelists stress Micron’s central role in driving S&P 500 gains, with Joe Kernen noting, “20% of the S&P gains so far in 2026 are attributable specifically to Micron” (01:47), and 7 of the top 10 S&P performers are semis.
• High expectations and volatility: Micron is up 165% in 3 months, with price targets ballooning from $700 to nearly $1,200 in weeks. Recent run-ups invite risk if earnings or forward guidance disappoint.
• Secular shift vs. normal cycle: Debate emerges on whether this upcycle is truly “different this time” or a repeat of past boom-bust patterns in semiconductors.

2. Semiconductor (and AI Memory) Super Cycle: Secular or Cyclical?

• Bullish fundamentals, extended price action: Thomas acknowledges that fundamentals—especially around memory and AI infrastructure—remain robust, but the “price movement… is almost what I would call hyperinflationary” (08:18) and potentially due for a pause.
• Commodity dynamics are still at play: Steve Weiss cautions that “if you’re buying and you’re thinking Micron’s a growth stock, you’re ignorant to the history of it… it’s expensive [historically]” (06:52), and cyclical supply/demand crunches never fully disappear from the space.
• High Bandwidth Memory market share: “80% of the market share is with Korean companies,” Joe Kernen notes, particularly SK Hynix, implying Micron’s competitive position is notable but subject to external supply shocks (11:00).

3. Risks, Rotations, and Market Sentiment

• Too much priced in?: Weiss details his own profit-taking: “there are three reasons why I sold it. Number one is that it got to be too large a position, irresponsibly large because of the appreciation” (04:31).
• What if growth moderates?: Even bullish panelists stress risk/reward is now less favorable for new buyers, with Kernen warning, “the parabolic nature is the concern I have as it relates to risk to reward” (16:22).
• Apple’s price moves as memory signal: There’s general agreement that Apple’s recent acknowledgment of forced price hikes due to memory costs is a bullish signal for sector demand (06:29–06:51).

4. Rotation into Broad Market Sectors

• "Blue sky" for the S&P but rotation underway: As Dubravko Lakos of JPMorgan raises his S&P 500 target to 7,800, attention turns to flows out of mega-cap tech and into sectors like financials, healthcare, small caps, and consumer discretionaries.
• Small-cap and sector-specific leadership: Thomas: “Small caps doing better than large caps is not necessarily late cycle behavior… very, very healthy” (19:03).
• Falling oil & yields: Joe Kernen and others highlight tailwinds for discretionary and cyclical sectors as oil falls below $70 and yields come off their highs (20:19).

5. Sector & Stock Calls of the Day

• Cybersecurity (CrowdStrike): Joe Kernen applauds “remarkable resilience,” with investment-grade credit, a coming stock split, and continued growth in cloud partnerships (28:57).
• Cruise lines, travel, and discretionary: Market momentum (e.g., Royal Caribbean, Marriott, Airbnb, Expedia) is attributed to summer travel, world events, and lower fuel prices (30:26–30:48).
• Homebuilders & real estate: Despite weak new-home sales data, sentiment remains buoyant, with options action surging in XHB/ITB and specific plays in Vulcan Materials and Louisiana Pacific (41:51–43:25).

6. Metals Meltdown – Gold, Commodities, and Inflation Hedges

• Gold retracing sharply: Steve Weiss: “I still think there’s pretty good downside in GLD and significant downside” (37:30), and panelists see a broad commodities exodus.
• Central banks & global dynamics: Thomas points to declining central bank buying, especially from China, and less support as global tensions ease (38:54).

7. Political & Corporate News Bulletins

• Housing bill drama: Emily Wilkins reports on President Trump delaying a key bipartisan housing affordability bill for leverage on voter ID legislation, with Congress maneuvering as the clock ticks (23:47–26:30).
• YouTube legal settlement & USPS woes: Kate Rooney covers a YouTube settlement over youth mental health lawsuits and the US Postal Service’s ongoing financial crisis (31:20–32:31).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Scott Wapner (on the Micron run-up):
  • “One year ago we're talking about a market cap that was 143 billion. Today it's 1.18 trillion. Okay, in 12 months. Now I don't know what that does to the pressure going into the print.” (03:30)
• Joe Kernen (on cyclical to secular debate):
  • “I don't agree this time is not like every other time…at some point the growth rate moderates. Scott, you don't continue to grow at 294%.” (11:00)
• Steve Weiss (on managing exposure):
  • “There are three reasons why I sold… it got to be too large a position, irresponsibly large… analysts coming up and playing can you top this with the price target?” (04:31)
• Thomas (on fundamentals vs. frenzy):
  • “We have to decouple the price movements in these stocks from the fundamental story… price movement… is almost what I would call hyperinflationary.” (08:18)
• Scott Wapner (on memory price impacts):
  • “If Tim Cook says that Apple has no choice but to raise prices because of memory…That feels to me like it's a bigger statement about a longer term trend.” (12:06)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Micron’s Importance & Setup: 01:01–04:31
• Semiconductor Cycle: Secular vs. Cyclical: 06:52–10:59
• Market Rotation and S&P Outlook: 17:51–21:37
• Cruise Lines, Travel, and Discretionary Moves: 30:26–31:20
• Gold and Metals Meltdown: 36:32–40:09
• Housing & Real Estate Play: 41:51–44:57
• Major News Updates (Housing Bill, Tech Lawsuits): 23:47–32:31

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Summary of Panel Tone and Takeaways

The episode is defined by a cautiously bullish yet risk-aware tone, especially among those sitting on large Micron or semi gains. Panelists agree that the memory/AI upcycle is historically unique but urge listeners not to ignore cyclical histories and the potential for moderation and price corrections. There is palpable excitement about a potential broadening market, with more sectors participating as tech overheats and rotations favor discretionaries, financials, and select cyclicals. Political headlines (housing bill suspense) and big corporate news (tech lawsuits, USPS crisis) reinforce the wide-ranging agenda.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode delivers critical context for Micron’s earnings as a bellwether for memory, AI, and broader tech, making clear the enormous expectations (and risks) now riding on the stock. The conversation also arms investors with nuanced perspectives on market cycles, sector rotations, and actionable sector analysis, all in real time with current Wall Street and D.C. developments. If you want to understand why the next Micron earnings print is so critical, and how it fits into the ongoing tech and market rotation narrative, this is a must-listen.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

Carl.

[Kate Rooney]

Thank.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, Micron's moment we count down to the most critical earnings report since Nvidia. I think you could say that about what's going to happen tonight. Joining me for the hour, Joe Chernobyl is Thomas Steve Weiss. Check the markets here. We got a pretty decent day going and really across the board, too. There's the Dow good for about 1%. Nasdaq's rebounding. The Russell still above 3,000. So that's a significant story. But we do have. Joe, what I what I really think, and I think this is like making a grand statement.

[Joe Kernen]

You are not for now.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, it's the most important report that we've gotten since video.

[Joe Kernen]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

Just given how volatile these stocks have been. Microns up 165% over the past three months. It's been more volatile lately. What's on the line tonight for a trade that has been a bit wobbly

[Joe Kernen]

of late, I think a lot is on the line for this evening. Let's remember something. 20% of the S&P gains so far in 2026. It's attributable specifically to Micron. Seven of the top 10 performers in the S and P are semiconductor trade. So this matters. I think it matters for micro. I think it matters for the overall sentiment related to what we're witnessing in technology and Momentum over the last several days where it looks like it's rolling over. I think it matters for Nvidia as well because if you tell me there's a slowdown in high bandwidth memory that is actually going to affect to be

[Scott Wapner]

so like, let's not even say because Jensen Huang's already said if you want to bring up Nvidia, he's already said that the demand and the shortages are going to last for, for years.

[Joe Kernen]

Okay, but it moderates at some point.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott, say it now.

[Joe Kernen]

It moderates at some point. I think you would acknowledge it. What did the market get troubled by on Tuesday? It got troubled by SK Hynix suggesting that they were beginning to see a little bit of a slowdown. I am long the name. I think the setup is similar to Broadcom though. I think if you don't own the name and you're listening to us right now, I don't think you're buying the name today. Five of the last six quarters, the stock has been down 90% of the analyst community like this stock in the last month. In the last 30 days, the price target, the 12 month price target, it's gone from 700 to where it sits today, close to $1,200. So I think we've built in and priced it for perfection. I think you're waiting here to see what happens on the other side. I think it's very similar to the setup that we had for Broadcom. I said it at the time and Broadcom's pulled back.

[Scott Wapner]

There's always a lot to live up to when a stock has done what this one's done twice. The market cap melt up alone is astounding. One year ago we're talking about a market cap that was 143 billion. Today it's 1.18 trillion. Okay, in 12 months. Now I don't know what that does to the pressure going into the print. I mean you've taken a third or so right off of your, your position in this name still hold it. How do you see it coming in when Wolf Research today says keep an eye on the 21 day support line of 977 held beautifully throughout the three month move that I just told you about. While the uptrend remains firmly intact. If we lose it, there is a risk down to 848,50. But it's held this 21 day support. Price targets as you guys have said, have just gone straight up to the moon. Blown past the most wild of expectations and here we are.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, so I sold the third Monday and today I sold some more. And as you may recall, a month or so ago I sold some as well. Look, there are three reasons why I sold it. Number one is that it got to be too large a position, irresponsibly large because of the appreciation the shares. Number two, it seems like every day analysis coming up and playing. Can you top this with the price target? And so now we see price targets 1500 or more. You talk 1200, Joe, that may be the average but you keep seeing them. You see analysts that had a price target of 500.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's be fair. Yeah, most analysts had price targets that were around that ballpark.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

And I guarantee you that investors had their own price targets that didn't look anything like this until this whole thing exploded and became the biggest thing in the AI trade right now. Memory.

[Steve Weiss]

Exactly. So but I'd say that my biggest concern away from portfolio management, and we've seen this before, we've seen it with Meta, we've seen it with other companies is that they say or they message we're going to put the brakes on it. You know, we still believe in AI but when you see what's happened with the Chinese really discounting product, you know, the cheapest product and high quality AI product and you see the pricing wars and you're not sure yet of what the return is on it and you see that Meta shares have gone from over 800 to fighting to stay, you know, at 5:65 then I wouldn't be surprised. And my concern is that they come out and say hey, we don't. Not that we don't believe in AI, not that we're not going to spend, but we want to moderate our spending and expand the timeline for spending it rather than rushing to.

[Scott Wapner]

I'll tell you, I think that would

[Steve Weiss]

be disastrous for the most bullish thing

[Scott Wapner]

I think you could make the case about Micron coming into the print is the Apple News of a week or so ago, the report that they're going to have to raise prices and Tim Cook admitting as much.

[Steve Weiss]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

Because they have no choice because of what memory prices have done. That's been. If you, if you're looking for a more bullish comment about memory demand and where we are, I don't know how can you find one?

[Liz]

You can't.

[Steve Weiss]

And we had Broadcom CEO talk about, you know, how spin still going but if you're buying and you're thinking Micron's a growth stock, you're ignorant to the history of it because I can give you the Same narrative in past cycles and so selling it 9 times earnings or 10 times next year's earnings just isn't cheap historically it's expensive and what happens is capacity comes on and we're seeing that a rush to build capacity.

[Scott Wapner]

But this is, this cycle is unlike any other cycle we've, we've arguably ever seen.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah and I remember that.

[Scott Wapner]

I know, I know people try to

[Steve Weiss]

position I may sell more today. As a matter of fact I'm unsure because like in video. Great quarter, great guidance sector. Look where the stock is Now. It's down 10% from the earnings Liz.

[Scott Wapner]

So over the last year in terms of memory stock performance me it's unbelievable. I told you what the market cap has done. Why is the market cap gone up the way? Because the stock's up 720% over the last year and it's not just Micron SK Hynix out of Korea 826 I mean the gains are ridiculous. Western Digital up 955%. SanDisk 4,000%. 4,000% in a year. Seagate 650. What was the last time you saw anything like that for a group of stocks in the stock market? I don't remember in a, in a 12 month period of time where you've ever seen gains like that from a single group.

[Thomas]

I think we have to decouple the price movements in these stocks from the fundamental story and whether or not there are still legs under the fundamental story. I think categorically yes, there are still legs under the fundamentals story. The memory demand story story. The chip demand story. The price movement that we've seen in these stocks is, is almost what I would call hyperinflationary. There's been a supply and demand dynamic in the market that most of the market had to reprice for earlier this year that suddenly demand was going to completely outstrip supply. Many of these companies had their supply spoken for for the rest of 2026 which has driven prices higher and we started to get nervous. There wasn't going to be enough to go around. So at some point these prices have to come back down to earth. I mean being so far above all of their moving averages from a technical perspective they just have to take a breather and I think that's fine. But over the longer term and the story I think that there's still plenty of life here and if you look at even something like South Korean exports, South Korean exports are seeing their strongest year over year growth since the 80s. South Korean exports tend to be a good leading indicator of U.S. earnings growth. So if that still works, if that relationship stays intact, US earnings growth has plenty more to go, particularly in this space. So that means the fundamental story remains, but the price action is extended and I think it probably can take a breather. But that's okay. That's not a bear case.

[Scott Wapner]

JP Morgan's constructive on memory higher for longer upcycle view they have you got Hynix considering according to a report, an IPO, a US listing. I say in in July 29 billion that they would look to raise.

[Joe Kernen]

First of all, these memory and storage names have become commodities and they are trading like they always are. Right. They're very cyclical in their nature and I don't want to sound traditionally they

[Scott Wapner]

have been cyclical in nature though. I think the more important question is is this time different? I think everybody knows that these are typically cyclical stocks which is why when you look at their valuations and you say well, nine times earnings in the greater context of the stock market is cheap. But in this case maybe it's not because of what history tells you about these names. Maybe this is more secular as it relates to memory given what we're going through now. Now at some point everything has a life cycle of, you know, dramatic growth. To suggest that this is just like every time else with chip stocks. I don't know if that's right anymore.

[Steve Weiss]

I agree with you.

[Joe Kernen]

It is not. I don't agree this time is not like every other time. I don't want to sound like I'm coming off off bearish because I'm not. I'm long. We're long since 223 in October. But at some point the growth rate moderates. Scott, you don't continue to grow at 294%. You are going to begin to moderate in 27. You're going to moderate further into 28. We saw that moderation in video. So what that means is the rate of appreciation begins to moderate as well. Doesn't mean it rolls over and the story ends. It just means the dramatic outperformance isn't in play. I also think that if you look at the high bandwidth memory market, you have to understand that 80% of the market share is with Korean companies. 57% of the market share is with SK Hynix. I have to believe there's going to be some effect on the way Micron trades. If in fact we see the ADR here in July supply for SK Hynix,

[Steve Weiss]

that's $1 trillion market cap at that

[Scott Wapner]

point I'm just telling you, if Tim Cook says that Apple has no choice but to raise prices because of memory, if he thought that memory prices were going to come down because the supply demand dynamic was going to force that to happen, they wouldn't make a decision that they'd have to raise prices now only to potentially roll them back in a handful of months. Not that they would ever roll them back, but if the dynamic was going to change in a handful of months, I don't think you would see that. This feels to me like it's a bigger statement about a longer term trend.

[Thomas]

I think it's absolutely a secular trend. But I almost agree with both of you. I do think that the trend of semiconductors being the cyclical part of tech and software being the defensive, less cyclical part of tech will return too. But both of those industry groups are going to get completely restated. I mean software we don't have to beat a dead horse about. We know that some of that is going to change. But I do think that the, the semiconductor piece of this is secular. We need that in order to drive the AI theme forward.

[Scott Wapner]

Like why wouldn't it be, why would it be any different than how the, the spend on compute and the amount of compute we need? Is that cyclical by traditional definitions? People are talking about like you're not going to have even a moderation of great magnitude in the, in the spend around compute for another couple of years because we're so early still to build

[Thomas]

out far I think there probably will have to be a moderation and we're probably overestimating how much demand and how quickly demand will need to be fulfilled.

[Scott Wapner]

Maybe not.

[Thomas]

The part that I agree with Steve on though is that, and maybe you don't. I'm just going to offer this, but that at some point what happens as a theme matures and as business cycles mature is that competition heats up and prices do come down. So that will take some of the froth out of the semiconductor trade and out of memory prices. But I think to your point about Apple, the theme itself is secular. They have to raise prices in order to continue providing their products. But I do think that over time it's not going to be this overblown. I think this is a little overblown in the demand side supply.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah. To go back to what Liz said once on our first comments is you have to distinguish the fundamentals of the companies from the price moves. And right now it's not really being distinguished all that much. Take away yesterday, take away today, but it's always going to be a commodity stock. Now commodity cycles can last longer in some periods than others.

[Scott Wapner]

I think this talk about super cycles in terms of commodities. Exactly like Jeff Curry would talk about the price of oil and being in a super cycle. I don't think it's a shock to anybody. That looks to me like we're in a super cycle for this particular commodity.

[Steve Weiss]

Exactly right, we are. But the secular trend in semiconductors has been going on for decades at this point. Now this is accelerating or increasing that secular Trend. Right. Because 40 years ago we didn't have semiconductor chips in refrigerators, we didn't have so many devices. Now they're there. So this adds fuel to that fire. But when you go through the heart of that commodity cycle which was termed to be a super cycle many times in the past, it ebbed away because supply demand is simply defined the commodities. So you can add supply. Yeah, right. And if the end market cools on supply because of price. Right. Which always happens happens with oil, happens with other commodities, then you have a resetting but.

[Scott Wapner]

But they're not going to have match if you will a closer to from a supply demand standpoint to meet where demand is for. For a good while. Well, they get corrected.

[Steve Weiss]

Just one more thought, Joe. I'm sorry but it could be a couple of years. But the question is with these hyper super cycles, how far in advance of the ebbing of the super cycle to the stocks discount that.

[Mike Santoli]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

So I think you're looking at it correctly by the way from the fundamental perspective and this time is different and the price action has validated that this is different. I think I'm looking at it from the perspective if you haven't bought this stock right now which has become a commodity which has become parabolic. I just don't like the risk to reward setup.

[Scott Wapner]

Well that's. So that's actually different conversation from those who are in it wondering what's riding on on tonight. For the.

[Joe Kernen]

Let me give you one, one small statistic. I am fully prepared for this. If the stock falls back. I think you said 800 right. Somewhere around there. You cited a number before. It had an eight handle on it. But let's just say it goes to 800. Guess what, it's not even at the 50 day moving average yet. Okay. The 200 day moving average is down at 400. So the parabolic nature is the concern I have as it relates to risk to reward. And it's a very similar setup to what we witnessed with Broadcast Broadcom.

[Steve Weiss]

I bought the stock when they missed the last quarter or maybe quarter before they missed the March quarter. So I bought it in April at 350A share is where I bought most of the stock. I now don't want to be on the other end of that trade where my shares are trading down because expectations too high. It's going to be a good quarter and it's going to, you know, check the boxes on being a great quarter and pricing and the, the guidance can be great. But what's the market going to do with that information?

[Joe Kernen]

Maybe the most positive effect will be on Nvidia if they tell a really good story because that is. It could be continues the fundamental dynamic around how good it is for Nvidia.

[Steve Weiss]

It could be negative on matter because they talk about higher prices and Apple, Apple. If you're going to raise prices and they raise prices each year on every new phone, who are you going to blame? Themselves? Your timing Cook, you're going to look for a scapegoat to say we're raising prices because of memory?

[Scott Wapner]

No, but they're trying to protect their margins as best they can. Not that it can fully offset what they're. What the input cost is.

[Steve Weiss]

Agreed, agreed.

[Scott Wapner]

That that's where we're at. Broader market news. Dubrav co Lacos, a frequent guest with us, raised his S and p target to 7,800 today. So we're at 74. So that gives you an idea of where he thinks we can go overweight. Tech and I, we're approaching our blue sky scenario is what he says. Barclays and Stifel are at 78 as well. They did that yesterday. Piper sandler today goes 7,500. Living near the edge is a title of what they're talking about. Liz, are we, you know, because the other conversation that we've been having away from tech is how money's been moving away from parts of tech into other areas of the market. And maybe that's part of the blue sky scenario in which you get, you know, a lot of stuff rising as the economy hangs in Fed. I know you know that maybe the commentary was more hawkish, the market's pricing in a couple of hikes or what have you, but I don't know how realistic any of that is anyway.

[Thomas]

Yeah, I don't want to get into a Fed conversation now, but I don't think they're going to hike this year at all. Beyond that, the good things that we're seeing in markets. I don't know what he means by blue sky. Sky, but we talked about this on closing bell last week that I think we just need to.

[Scott Wapner]

Dark storm clouds.

[Thomas]

It's certainly not. But we need to remove some of the negatives, remove some of the risks. And it looks as if the war overhang and the oil overhang is being removed. So perhaps that's part of the blue sky idea. So the good things in markets and I always look for confirmation when we're strengthening again, confirmation that it can broaden out and confirmation that investors aren't feeling defensive. Things like even on down days in the index, the broader index, you've got more stocks advancing than declining. That's happened for the last couple of days. That's very promising. Things like small caps absolutely crushing it. Even when large cap indices are not think about a business cycle. Small caps doing better than large caps is not necessarily late cycle behavior and it's not overheating behavior. That's a good rotation. And then banks doing really well. Health care waking up again. That indicates to me that investors are taking some profits, taking some money off the table in the tech trade, but putting it back into equities where they can find opportunity. Health care served as an option for investors rotating out of tech last year into pharma and biotech. I think that's what we're seeing again here and that's very, very healthy.

[Scott Wapner]

Why wouldn't I go into a more discretionary overweighting now I got WTI at 70 bucks.

[Joe Kernen]

Well, that's the story you would And I think as as we build out the show, we'll talk a little bit about some of the travel names that I think are seeing newfound momentum. But as you point out, oil below 70 is significant. I said last week I truly believe it. I think the high in yields is in I think in the middle of May we traced out that high in a 10 year somewhere around 4.68. We're at 4.4 today. I think that's having a positive impact overall on markets as well as yields move lower. I agree with Liz. I think there's no shot that we're raising rates this year. I think that the next move is actually going to be a cut. So I think there are opportunities that allow you to broaden out. For sure. You're seeing names that are advancing in consumer discretionary seeing names that are advancing in health care.

[Scott Wapner]

Restaurants, restaurants looking at Brinker today up four and a third. I've got Shake Shack up to Texas Roadhouse up two and a half. Starbucks is up two and a third. Royal Ruby's up almost five.

[Thomas]

Yeah, yeah, when a lot of those discretionary names have had a rough go of it. So you're getting in at a decent entry point. I usually talk about broader ETFs. This is not a time that I think you just blindly throw money into the broad etf. I do think you have to be choosy. And keep in mind that Amazon is a huge part of the discretionary homebuilders.

[Scott Wapner]

KB is up 17%. The whole group is up nicely if you're going to get a topping of yields and a drop in oil and maybe you have a somewhat of a comeback in the, in the housing space. But all those names, not all, but like I'd say 90% of the 1, 99% of the ones I'm looking at on my screen in that universe. Discretionary are up.

[Steve Weiss]

They are.

[Scott Wapner]

And why would that reverse if oil sticks around where it was before this whole thing in the Middle east even started?

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, no, I should be giving you some money to trade because you're spot on here with all of this, Scott. And I think what's interesting about it is you have the ability to build positioning in all those areas of the market because I don't think the way that the investor community treated those industries and sectors was at an overweight. It was market weight. In some instances, like home builders, it was underweight. So you have that ability to rotate to capital. And I think that's a lot of what the market is doing this week and reestablishing some overweight positioning in areas of the market that were unappealing earlier in the year.

[Scott Wapner]

Let me get one stock in. I got some. I got some news coming in a minute. But Principal Financial Group Financials have really had a nice comeback here. I only bring it up because it was downgraded to a sell, which at bank of America it's underperformed. But again, anytime you get a call like that, I just want to make sure we bring it up. What do you think about this and this call? An expectation of decelerating operating income growth over the next 12 months?

[Joe Kernen]

I strongly disagree with that. They also lowered their price target from 98 to 95. Let's keep in mind they had a neutral rating as this name moved higher. This is the best performing financial stock stock in the Jyoti etf. You're talking about a company that has delivered in terms of a very strong balance sheet in terms of the revenue growth. The life insurance business is remarkably strong. The health insurance business is remarkably strong. So I strongly disagree with the call here.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, let Me go to DC now and get some news from Emily Wilkins, who's on Capitol Hill for us. As always, am

[Emily Wilkins]

A SCOTT well, of course, we've been following this major housing bill that Trump was supposed to be signing basically right now that would have unlocked housing affordability, supply, put some caps on how major investors are going to be able to own single family homes. But Trump, President Trump tweeted on Truth Social earlier today that he was going to cancel that until Congress made some progress on a voter ID bill. And now we have reaction from the two top Republicans in Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson saying that Trump he does expect him to sign the bill within the next 10 days. And remember, that is actually about the amount of time if President Trump doesn't sign the bill, it will go ahead and automatically become law as long as he doesn't veto it. Also spoke with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who said that it was President Trump's call to make whether or not to sign the bill today. But he said that the housing bill was a great bill, that it was important for affordability, which is going to be incredibly key for Republicans if they want to maintain both the House and the Senate as they go into November's midterms. Now with we know that the president is on his way to the Capitol right now for a meeting with Senate Republicans. We do expect that to be have a couple tensions in it, certainly with this housing bill which most senators voted for, as well as other issues dealing with voter id, dealing with the head for the director of National Intelligence and a number of other issues where you are seeing major gaps between Senate Republicans and the president.

[Scott Wapner]

SCOTT well, because you've had on numerous occasions, as we know, Emily, topped Senate Republicans telling the president as to the Save America so called, you know, that's the so called Save America act that they don't have the votes. And that doesn't appear that as the football has really moved much despite, you know, the president not wanting to sign this or other legislation that's come before him because of this issue in and of itself.

[Emily Wilkins]

You're absolutely right, Scott. One thing that we did hear from Speaker Johnson today was he said, look, there is potentially a way to get certain parts of this voter id, the Save America act bill done via reconciliation. Johnson said that he was going to sit down with the president, was going to maybe talk through some potential options here. It sounds like he thinks that he can do that within the next week if he thinks that President Trump's going to sign this within the next 10 days. But again, even if Johnson has a plan, there's a huge difference between having a plan to potentially get something done and actually going forward. Given that really there is not a lot of momentum in the Senate. Senate to try and move through another giant bill when there's so much else that has to be done before the end of the year. And quite frankly, if you look at the congressional calendar, so little time.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Emily, thanks for the update there. Emily Wilkins on the Hill. Up next, the boat is the new moat. That's a big call today on the travel stock. We'll tell you where one top analyst sees the best opportunities right now. We're back after this.

[Oliver Renick]

Hi, diva.

[Rachel]

It's Rachel and Jordan.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, hi.

[Rachel]

Quick question.

[Jordan]

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[Rachel]

Yeah, we're concerned you can like buy stuff with it. You love buying stuff and earn cash

[Jordan]

back on eligible purchases.

[Rachel]

You love purchasing eligible things.

[Jordan]

So the money your friend sent you yesterday, that's today's ramen or rideshare or eye patches.

[Rachel]

The skincare kind, not the pyro kind.

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[Scott Wapner]

Oh, we got near 500 point gain on the Dow 52,151, let's do some calls of the day. Deutsche today and cyber has been really strong lately. Deutsche goes to 725 their hold on it but they had 670. What's up with this comeback in these names? Fairly volatile space over the course of this of this year, but a nice ramp recently.

[Joe Kernen]

You're seeing a lot of the cloud services utilizing these cybersecurity companies. AWS as example here with CrowdStrike. Then it was reflected in really good earnings across the board for the cybersecurity names. That spending intentions continue on the part of CFOs as it relates to security software. So it's. It's been the one sub industry, if you would within the software universe that has obviously remained remarkably resilient as it relates specifically to CrowdStrike. Their balance sheet continues to improve. S and P just upgraded them. They are now sitting at investment grade. Let's also keep in mind they have a full four for one stock split. The date of record is June 25th. I believe it'll begin trading on July 2nd. And for those that say that stock splits don't work, bank of America put out a really good report that over the last 12 months when you split your stock you're up about 20%. It worked for follow out so I think it's going to work for CrowdStrike.

[Scott Wapner]

What about Echo Lab? Top pick, a new top pick at Citi and that's across their coverage. They view it toys to convert its surcharges to structural pricing.

[Joe Kernen]

I'd like to see that happen. The materials sector really hasn't rewarded our strategy for being there. You could see the chart. It's up 6% so far. Year to date it's been a volatile sector. On a one year basis it's basically up modestly. This is a focus on water hygiene as it relates to water. We haven't seen the type of strong momentum develop surrounding.

[Scott Wapner]

It was Alpine macro that says don't miss the boat today. The boat is now the moat. Cruise Lines, hotel operators, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Marriott, Hilton.

[Joe Kernen]

For me, for me it's Airbnb, it's Expedia, it's Delta, it's ual.

[Scott Wapner]

They like, they like Airbnb also and

[Joe Kernen]

Expedia and booking it's Royal Caribbean. And then also you're seeing today finally some really positive momentum in Uber. I think there's a strong effect from the World cup here in the United States. And just as you mentioned before, oil prices coming down, you're going to see a rebuilding of positions in these consumer discretionary names. A lot of people had stepped to the sidelines in the month of March and April. Those are the names of I would focus on Delta, ual, Expedia, Airbnb.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Kate Rooney has a news update for us. Hi, Kate.

[Kate Rooney]

Hey there, Scott. YouTube has settled a lawsuit brought by a minor who claimed the platform damaged his mental health. Financial terms were not disclosed, but the settlement does come ahead of a second California trial and social media's role in the youth mental health crisis. In the first trial, YouTube and Meta's Instagram were found negligent by intentionally designing for platforms to be addictive to young people. Now that YouTube has settled, the second trial is set to begin next month with Meta, TikTok, and Snap as the remaining defendants. A federal judge, meanwhile, issued a nationwide order blocking immigration agents from making arrests inside immigration courts. The judge said officials violated a key statute governing the process and called the decision making process, quote, arbitrary and capricious. And finally, the postmaster general, David Steiner, told lawmakers today that the agency has a broken business model and needs help from Capitol Hill to fix it. Steiner says the USPS is out of cash and it's borrowing from employee retirement funds to continue operations. The Postal Service has reported net losses of $120 billion since 2007. Scott, back over to you.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Kate, thank you. Kate Rooney up next. And Toli with his midday work.

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[Scott Wapner]

All right, we're back. Senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Mike Santoli joins us now with his midday word. Interesting day rotation continues and we look ahead to Micron for sure.

[Mike Santoli]

Yeah, I mean the market is trying to rebalance itself away from the over reliance on the high momentum semi trade. Trying to do it in a way that's kind of benign and holds the the indexes in in decent support. It's working so far. It does strike me though the velocity of some of the other moves that have been triggered. I mean whether it's the homebuilders or some of the other consumer names you guys, we're just talking about it feels as if, you know, WTI crude trading for a minute below 70 bucks a barrel seemed like it unleashed something there. You sort of reconnected the decline in treasury yields with that. And I think there's kind of this forced move into non tech areas maybe that have been underexploited. So we'll see if it works. I still think there's hurdles micron earnings you guys have been talking about. It's exactly in the Nvidia trap of exactly what let's say six quarters away we're talking about in terms of revenue guidance. And then you know, we got the Russell rebalance on on Friday. You do have month end quarter and next week. I think it should create a little bit of a headwind to some equity allocation. So I think there are things out there along with a raging dollar to the upside that maybe are going to keep things unsettled. But you wouldn't know it by looking at the action today really.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you make of some of the discretionary stuff? You know, obviously oil is basically back to where it was or certainly close before this whole thing started. If yields have maybe peaked, that's all bullish for that trade. It has to be, right?

[Mike Santoli]

Well, it is. I think that what I'm hesitating about is that it seems a little bit forced and hurried in the moment. I get it. The logic is there. They've been laggard areas of the market. You're getting a little bit more, you know, kind of excuse for to say that there's tailwinds that are going to continue on Rates. It just feels like you didn't have good homebuilding data. To me, KBH was okay, and yet the builders are ripping. And I don't think it's because of this, this bill that's been passed, which is kind of cosmetic stuff. So, you know, to me, I'm sort of respectful of it without buying into it as being a real trend change.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you in a couple of hours as we get closer to Micron and we discuss it further than Mike. Thank you, Mike Santoli. Coming up, the metals meltdown. How about gold for fresh? Lows for the year. These guys have a lot to say about it. You'll hear it next. Check out Go Gold. So it's back above 4,000, but earlier today it did dip below that level. First time since November of 25. You guys were talking about it in the break, like, hey, you see what's happening with gold? So this was an amazing trade.

[Steve Weiss]

Yep.

[Scott Wapner]

What do we do with it now, if you have it?

[Liz]

I've been.

[Steve Weiss]

I've been looking to sell it. You know, I didn't.

[Scott Wapner]

You have the gld?

[Steve Weiss]

I have the gld. Correct. And look, I still think there's pretty good downside in GLD and significant downside. So, you know, it's one of those things where you keep waiting for a pop, so you can not feel so bad about selling it on downslope.

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[Steve Weiss]

And so far, that hasn't come, but it's just not been. It's not been a good performer. That's obvious. But, hey, thank God I don't own Bitcoin, which is down 50% from its size post election, which shows no signs of moving higher.

[Joe Kernen]

Freeport McMorrant is a name that I bought in early June. We didn't get to it yesterday. I sold out of it. And I think that was the right move. The stock was at a high for the year on June 17th. You've had a very fast reversal. And it's been commodities oriented. It's been gold, it's been silver. It's been base metals as well. You're also seeing copper, which is rolling over right now. So I think you're seeing capital that's moving out of the commodity universe.

[Steve Weiss]

Right.

[Joe Kernen]

And I think it's flowing into these cyclical real economy names.

[Scott Wapner]

But you do have Newmont still, to be clear.

[Joe Kernen]

That's in the etf, which rebalances at the end of July. Am I happy it's in there? No, I am not.

[Steve Weiss]

Wink, wink.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, well, we know where that's Going,

[Steve Weiss]

look, gold was such momentum trade and I made some money on, now I'm taking quite a hit sticky on it.

[Thomas]

It was a momentum trade for January of this year.

[Mike Santoli]

Yeah.

[Thomas]

And spiked in January. I mean make no mistake, the gold trade began when Russia invaded Ukraine and the dollar got weaponized. So it had been propped up and slowly grinding higher because all the central banks were buying it, namely China. That started to dissipate because of the war. They needed to make money available to cover the oil issues. I think as the war de escalates, gold can probably find its footing a little bit better. But it's going to be a frustrating long for the next few months.

[Steve Weiss]

And China needs dough. It's not yet their economy is in the tank so they need to raise cash.

[Scott Wapner]

What about inflation related hedges and things like that? If you're, if you're thinking about, you know, higher inflation, more sticky for a little bit longer irrespective of what the Fed does or doesn't do about it.

[Steve Weiss]

You know, it's kind of interesting because I've looked at it, it versus inflation versus rates and I'd say it's an unpredictable hedge in that regard. So it's, you know, to Liz's point, really started moving up in July of 24. I don't see any reason why it can't reset at least near to that level. That's my concern. So I'm likely to sell it in the next few days. But right now, now I'm stuck with.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, we're going to take a break and then we're going to Chicago. Oliver Renick playing a little options action for us at CBO to give you the latest trade. What pops out on his radar today. Next,

[Joe Kernen]

As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the leaders driving business and the nation forward.

[Liz]

If I had to sum up 250 years of the American enterprise, if you will, I would have to say the one word would be exceptionalism. In many respects, our entire nation is built upon this spirit, this exceptionalism. When our founding fathers put forth the Constitution that we all live by today, they knew that unless entrepreneurship and business was going to be important. And many people don't realize they put the concept of patents into the Constitution. So patents were part of the fabric of our nation. President Lincoln said about patents that they provide the fuel of interest to the fire of genius. That was what America was built on, taking on the impossible and making it possible.

[Scott Wapner]

Welcome back. We touched on this a little while ago. Housing stocks, they are surging today, Oliver Renick at the CBO in Chicago with some options action. What do you see there?

[Oliver Renick]

Hey, Scott. New home sales fell short of expectations this morning, but earnings from KB Home and President Trump's cancellation of a bipartisan housing affordability bill has homebuilder stocks surging. ETFs tracking the group are up at least 6%. KB Home is up 17%. And options trading that's typically absent from this group is waking up today. Options volume in the xhb and ITB ETFs are more than 4 times average and trading in KB Home is almost 40 times the average. The premium in the sector ETFs is almost entirely tied to call prices, while KB Home ratios are more balanced where twice as many puts are trading as calls. The most popular contract and XHB, the sector ETF is the 117 strike call expiring July 2, a trade that needs the ETF to add another 3.3%. Scott, in just over a week.

[Scott Wapner]

Good stuff, Oliver. Thank you. Oliver Renick, you have Pulte. We do think about this, this trade here.

[Joe Kernen]

So Pulte finally working some of the other home builder names obviously working today. I think they have to prove themselves over the course of the second half of the year. The derivative trade is the trade of interest for me. This takes you towards Vulcan materials. And Scott, you know, I've been doing this show long enough for you to remember this name, Louisiana Pacific lpx. It's a name I used to talk about years ago ago when interest rates were remarkably low. It's a pre pandemic name. It's up seven and a half percent today. But if we are going to see an increase in the supply of homes in this country, everything begins with Louisiana Pacific Housing.

[Scott Wapner]

Anybody?

[Thomas]

I mean, the data today is what I would have followed, but obviously the market isn't reacting to the day that did the data. The data was soft. So you've got new homes here, sales below all estimates. You've got the supply of homes the highest it's been since 2022. That would suggest that over the next year or so home prices would fall, which is better for the consumer, but maybe not so good for the stocks that are moving today. Still, this is, this is a political move.

[Steve Weiss]

It's still about affordability and affordability just isn't there. And plus the competition is significant with all the multifamily housing that's leasing, lease only, that's going up. So it's a different environment than historically what we're used to. Any place you look, any spare piece of land, you're seeing an apartment building go up and it's rental only mostly.

[Scott Wapner]

So you have so from real estate, I mean, Simon Property Group gets a bump in Target today to 215 at Truest.

[Joe Kernen]

You're really buying the balance sheet in this company and there are a lot of nonbelievers as it related to real estate coming out of the pandemic. And Simon Property Group was able to distinguish itself, number one, with a very generous buyback program, but utilizing the balance sheet to take advantage of distressed opportunities that their peers in the real estate sector couldn't take advantage of. Taubman being an example, taking a small ownership there as well. So I think it is established itself as best in breeding as it relates to real estate, malls and that type of environment. It's a name we're certainly happy to own.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a break.

[Joe Kernen]

We'll do finals.

[Jordan]

Foreign.

[Joe Kernen]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast Now.

[Scott Wapner]

Guys, we didn't discuss Alphabet going into the Dow replacing facing Verizon Weiss. You and Joe own it.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah.

[Steve Weiss]

So they lost a couple of important people this week and that's pressure to stock going to Dow should help them. But as we've seen, that's not necessarily sustainable balance. But nonetheless, I like it quite a bit. And I think anytime you've written off Alphabet, you've made a mistake.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, investors have found that out. Right. Like take a look at the last year in this name.

[Joe Kernen]

Sorry, Joe, I don't think an inclusion into the Dow is that significant. There's not that much capital that's benchmarked against the Dow.

[Mike Santoli]

Agreed.

[Joe Kernen]

Not going to be significant.

[Scott Wapner]

No, it just shows you, you know, the growing influence, I suppose of this company and sort of where we are in that life cycle. All right, 3:00 Eastern Time today. I'll see you with the Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, Doug Clinton, Rich Saperstein, Brian Belsky, Bryn Talkington and Ice Cube. Ice Cube, huge cube. Look forward to that. Yeah, it's a good final trade. What do you got?

[Steve Weiss]

Weiss Dick's Sporting Goods stocks up about 10%, you know, since the cessation of hostilities and I think keeps going Lizzie financials.

[Thomas]

I think the yield curve steepens by the short end coming back down and that helps in capital markets activity.

[Scott Wapner]

Propping it up to Joe Chi Garment Consumer Discretionary. All right, good stuff. Thanks, everybody. I'll see you on closing bell the

[Jordan]

Exchange all opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half time report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer Feeling stuck

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