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Halftime Report
Will Stocks Rally into Year-End? 11/28/25
00:44:19
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate whether the market will rally into year-end. Plus, the Committee share their latest portfolio moves. And later, Bryn explain why she's buying more Bitmine Immersion as Bitcoin paces for its vest week since October 3rd. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Courtney Reagan
What does it mean to live a rich life?
- [00:03]
Stephanie Link
It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
- [00:08]
Courtney Reagan
And everything in between.
- [00:10]
Stephanie Link
With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD Jones, Member, SIPC Think of your.
- [00:32]
Ripple Podcast Host
Commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office. So why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Block Stars. The podcast. It's happening with Ripple.
- [01:02]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, Carl, thanks very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. We are tracking the last hour of trade today on this holiday shortened Friday. Stocks nicely higher as the month winds to a close. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge, Bryn Talkington. Let's check the markets. Told you we've got a nice gain going on today. The Dow is good for about 300 or so. We'll show you the majors. S and P is looking pretty good as well. There's your full picture, Russell. Up about one half of 1%, yields down. And that was pretty good for stocks too. Joe, you can answer the question of what you want for the holidays. I mean, the kids had some pretty good answers. You want a Santa Claus rally?
- [01:57]
Joe Terranova
A Santa Claus rally. Rally would be good. And I think it looks, it looks, Scott, like we're potentially going to get it. We've reversed a lot of the negative momentum that greeted us in the month of November. I don't know if you feel the same, but I think a lot of the lifting and the return of animal spirits has to do with pricing in the fact that you probably will get that December rate cut. There was some skepticism surrounding that.
- [02:20]
Mike Santoli
So I don't know if we have.
- [02:21]
Joe Terranova
The ability to show it. But if you could show a year to date, as I'm speaking S and P equal weight chart it's been the S and P equally. It's been the Russell that's been, been kind of carrying the market over the last five days while in video is actually struggling somewhat. Thankfully we have Alphabet to kind of offset that. But that broadening out narrative is back in play and I think it's attributable to the potential for a December rate.
- [02:46]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I mean rates started moving a little bit lower and that really ignited the Russell over the last few trading days before the Thanksgiving holiday. Malcolm. So we're, we're putting together a good week. We've had a nice bounce back after that. Really, you know, pretty significant bout of volatility that we had and we may just eke out a gain for the month, which a week ago might have seemed unthinkable. Yeah.
- [03:09]
Malcolm Etheridge
And I think Joe is making an important point that the equal weight is what's actually been performing well this month. It's surprising to me. You've heard me make the case several times that portfolio managers that have been underweight tech and have been trimming their tech positions going into the end of the year risk being caught out. I think that probably still holds true for the entire year. But it's interesting just specifically for the month of November, that that hasn't actually been the case.
- [03:37]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Bryn, what about you? How does this next month, in the last one of this year shape up, do you think?
- [03:43]
Bryn Talkington
Well, I mean, we've owned the equal weight for a year and a half and we're still waiting for it to catch up to the S and P. So I'm a little bit suspect of the small cap, an equal weight rally, even though we own equal weight, just because it's still been a laggard. I think you're going to continue to see the market go up, but I think you're going to continue to also see this dispersion between the big names that we talk about all the time. And I think, you know, Google and Video, I think that's going to be a favorite hedge fund short, kind of like how Tesla and Uber was. But I know a lot of hedge funds went short Nvidia last week, long Google. I think that kind of rotation will continue in that dispersion, which ultimately is a healthy thing. And I think that eliminates and kind of takes that bubble tug, bubble talk off when the market is doing that for you. And so you're just seeing that dispersion I think with these tech names just.
- [04:34]
Scott Wapner
Continuing to increase this comeback that we've had staff over the past week or so. Has made people a little more bullish I think into year end. Goldman's trading desk. John Flood puts out a report says the wall of worry has been extremely high this year and remains omnipresent. It's a bullish signal he said says The S&P 500 is closed on 36 all time highs this year. The last one on October 28th. I believe there are still more to come before we turn the page on 2025. This is what an end of year. And you know what? Joe alludes to it too. Maybe an everything rally. That's what this could look like.
- [05:13]
Stephanie Link
Look, the market always worries about something. I actually worry when I don't worry because that means that we're complacent. But I think the setup into the end of the year is very positive. Seasonally on average, December is up about one and a half percent. That's one thing. The second thing is the economy continues to surprise to the upside. We had very good weekly jobless claims this week that didn't get a lot of attention and now you're at the four week moving average of something like 224,000 weekly jobless claims. That's very healthy, it's cooling but it's not collapsing. So we have the labor market and the leading indicator is weekly claims. That's actually okay, number one. Number two, durable goods rose almost 10% this past month. The PPI numbers were pretty tame, still elevated at 2.7% but certainly better than what we had been seeing over the last several years. And final demand for goods was actually the biggest number since February. So you add it all up, the economy is running at three and a half, four percent. Whatever the number is, it's above trend that's leading to double digit earnings. And I do think you're going to see an absolute broadening out in the market. So that you're going to see look at financials today, Scott, they're doing quite well. Industrials are doing well, even discretionary doing really well. So I think it's going to be tech plus everything else. And I think you want to be as long as you can into the end of the year.
- [06:37]
Scott Wapner
Wow, Joe. I mean that sounds like an everything rally. We have stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin. Bitcoin's recovered a bit. Gold went through its own bout of volatility, looks to be back as well. What do you think?
- [06:48]
Joe Terranova
I think look that the Federal Reserve is going to be in a blackout period ahead of the meeting. So unless there's something that kind of takes away the Probability of that rate cut coming in December. Then the broadening out narrative, we lose momentum in that. But 52 week highs today, there's 17 of them. You do have Broadcom, you have Analog Devices, but beyond that you have your gm, you have your Las Vegas Sands, you have your Synchrony Financial, you have Walmart, Welltower, the steel names, Nucor Steel Dynamics. So it's broadening out. We've talked a lot about health care. I've told you, continuing to build the position in the XPI as it move towards 125. I don't know how Brin feels about natural gas. I think natural gas is breaking out. I own equity. That's at a high for year. That's a trade I think you could look at. And I think also precious metals have come back nicely into play. Gld, which I have ownership, I'm actually looking to add to that.
- [07:47]
Scott Wapner
Well, there you go. There's your February gold contract up about 1% here, a nice little move. We talked a lot about health care as you said and Malcolm, we have because it's been the place to be by far the best sector in November, up nine and a half percent as it grew. Comm services has been just fine too, but it's been a health care kind of market. Do you feel like it stays that way or does it revert back to tech? And I we're not so much talking about Bubble, we're talking about Alphabet getting to $4 trillion in market cap.
- [08:20]
Malcolm Etheridge
Well, I think it's important and also healthy for the conversation that finally another company is taking over the conversation, if you will. So we haven't really talked about Alphabet in the same way that we've talked about Microsoft and Nvidia and Amazon even for the last 18 months roughly. So I'm glad to see another company kind of jumping into that, that race that we're talking about who's going to dominate the sector. I also think that it's healthy that this rotation shows that there is some staying power for the trade. So to your question, I think that more than likely tech continues to be the thing that leads the contributions. The investments into AI infrastructure have really been the thing that drove GDP the first half of this year. It's like half of all GDP spending the first half of this year was all related to CapEx. And so I think it's unrealistic that health care or anything else takes over that dominance anytime soon. Eight of the 10 largest companies in the S and P right now are tech names. 35% of all the waiting in the S and P are tech names and I think that probably carries us through 2026 and beyond.
- [09:26]
Scott Wapner
Kind of a crazy month, Brian, in terms of tech, when you look at the outperformers, you know, Alphabet obviously is a headliner story. It needs to get to 33148. We just showed you that. But the fact that Nvidia was down 11% in the month and Meta, Amazon and Microsoft were also lower. This is a trade that, though it underperformed, down 5% as a technology group, Alphabet and Apple really carried it. It would look worse, much worse if not for this Alphabet comeback.
- [09:57]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, I mean I think that the Alphabet specifically now obviously bought Alphabet right after earnings and I think Alphabet right now, we've all known they've been vertically integrated all along. But as I, as I said earlier in the week, I really think Sergey coming back is a game changer to take out the bureaucracy, to take out the, just the slowness of Google as Google has just not executed over the past few years. And I think having that founder mentality come back of let's move quickly and let's take out the bureaucracy, you're seeing that in the price. And I would say about Nvidia though, I know obviously Nvidia has traded a little bit down after this last earnings, but just to give some context so we don't hang on, short termism is over the last three years, Google's up. I mean Nvidia is up 1,000%. Google's up about what, 250. 260%. So I mean Nvidia has just been a beast. So yeah, it's going to rest for a while. What's even crazy is those earnings have grown just as fast as the stock on Nvidia. So I think it's taking a breather like it did last year. Remember when it was that it couldn't get above 150 for close to a year. We're probably going to enter another time period that 180, 200 is going to be a peak. So like right now I have calls on 200 January calls and I don't think it's even remotely going to get called away. So I'm happy to start selling calls on Nvidia right now while it's in this consolidation phase when you're not troubled.
- [11:27]
Joe Terranova
At all by hearing that Met is going to ultimately switch to TPU's, the tensor processing units, that maybe there is something about the chips that Alphabet, which they started in 2013, are now gathering momentum and Maybe that's going to come as a negative impact to Nvidia.
- [11:45]
Bryn Talkington
No, I mean I think that everyone's talking about chips as if they're a monolith and they're incredibly heterogeneous and the useful life of all of these chips are different. And so you can use TPU's, you can use Nvidia, the tech stack of Nvidia. But do understand as it relates to the software, I still think in video with the CUDA software and their ability with that software stack to, to continue to be in pole position is going to continue. At the same time though, you know, these TPUs have been around to your point for, for, for over a decade and so it's nice to see another player. But I do not think it's this. We have to separate all of these different use cases. And I do think that you're going to continue to see both Broadcom, you're going to see tsmc, amc, now Google and then in video as well. Can all be winners in this space.
- [12:36]
Scott Wapner
I'll tell you what, Steph, you know, we can talk about the broadening all we want, but I don't think that you, not, not you specifically, but I don't think we want the kind of leadership that we had in December, what we've had in November for a big rally in the market. I mean, I'm sorry, but if you get healthy care, materials, staples in real estate, as for the top six sectors in December, the market's not going to look that great. It's just not because those are traditionally defensive, more defensive areas of the market. If you have technology underperform the way it did, you're not going to get a big move into year end. However broad it might look, it's not going to be great.
- [13:19]
Stephanie Link
Well, I mean that's why I pointed out financials and industrials today, 1% a month too.
- [13:25]
Scott Wapner
That, that falls into it also. Right, that falls into it also. If you don't want a carbon copy of what you just had.
- [13:35]
Stephanie Link
No, I mean look, technology and comm services is a 35% of the, of the market. So we do need technology to participate. But technology is participating. Okay, so maybe in video was weak, maybe Broadcom was weak. Maybe some of the other technology companies are down for the month, but they're up substantially for the year. I mean look at, look at Seagate, look at Western Digital, look at LAM Research, Broadcom. I mentioned Micron. I mean there's so many companies that have done in technology that have done so well. So a Pullback is okay, but that's why I'm paying attention to some other sectors because they're meaningful. Now I don't want Staples to be leading by any means and maybe not even health care because that's to your point. They're more defensive. But I look at financials and I look at industrials and those are more cyclical, that's more tied to the overall economy and that's why I always pay attention to what is happening in the broader economy and it's actually doing well.
- [14:31]
Scott Wapner
And so those industrials, well, industrials down one and a half percent in November. Discretionary down three and a half percent. Those are, you know, classic cyclical areas. Technology down five. My point only is that if you are hopeful of a meaningful move into year end that it can't look like November looked. It's just not going to materialize if you have a carbon copy of what you just got. Now, I'm not suggesting in any way that you will get what you just got. The reason why tech had an underperforming month is because there were, you know, AI questions. You had debt questions, you had depreciation questions. Now maybe those persist into the the end of the year. But the market activity, the price action step over the last two, three, four sessions, which suggests that maybe we have a reversion back to the way we got here in the first place. And that's with tech and comm services leading the way.
- [15:26]
Stephanie Link
It should be we should have the AI data center, grid power, all of that whole food chain. We should be seeing better results from the stocks. They've had a nice run. And it's not just technology, it's all of the industrials that I just met, that we met, that we met, we talk about. And it's grid and its power and all of those things are very interrelated. And so, but the demand is so incredibly strong across so many different parts of that food chain that I do think you will see a rally into the end of the year. And oh, by the way, I think they're going to continue to rally in 2026 and 2027 because I think we're in the second inning of all of this, this. And I don't believe that we're in a bubble. So you put those to the side, those should do well. But if you have an economy that's growing above trend, these other sectors should do well. These other cyclical sectors. And I by the way, do believe that discretionary is going to play catch up as well. I think you're going to have a great holiday season. The consumer has a job, the consumer has better wages, inflation is coming down. So to me, like you got AI, but then I think you also have consumer and you add it all up and that's really where the better value is in discretionary, in financials, in industrials versus tech. But you know, you don't want to fight against the tech, not, not the wave, not the, not the tailwinds that are there.
- [16:43]
Scott Wapner
You know, we're going to follow Oracle too because it's been a brutal month for that name and some of the adjacent ones around it. We can take a look at this stock today. Down 22% month to date. And how about this? Morgan Stanley is out with a really interesting note and a trade that they're talking about. They're going to, they reiterate their view that risk skew to the downside for Oracle Credit. That's, that's arguably been a bigger story than the precipitous, you know, decline that you've seen in the, in the equity. Their credit analysts had previously recommended investors buy credit default swaps on Oracle but hedge that exposure with long positions in the bonds. Well now they've changed that and they suggest after basis compression we remove the buy bond leg of our trade and now maintain by the 5 year CDS protection outright. Seema Modi has been with us almost every day. She's with us again tracking this. So this would suggest that the issues at the heart of the conversation around Oracle aren't going away with the turn of a calendar.
- [17:46]
Stephanie Link
That's right, Scott. And the market just wants more clarity as well. Morgan Stanley's credit team, they're growing more confident in this call by the way, to go long Oracle's credit default swaps with this new note that you just mentioned. Credit analyst Lindsay Tyler writing that pressure on Oracle's credit as it takes out new construction loans could drive more hedging by bondholders in the coming weeks. She adds that bondholders sentiment has shifted this fall as a result of the hyperscaler mega bond deals that we've been seeing which offer investment alternatives and shares. That concerns are starting to grow around Oracle stock which may incentivize the company's management to outline a financing plan on its upcoming earnings call. Now the exact earnings date has yet to be released, but we're expecting Oracle results to be coming out the week of December 8th. What will be key is Oracle's future debt commitments. Right now the running estimate across the street is $90 billion over the next three years. But analysts are questioning in recent days whether it can reach this target without open air providing reassurances around that five year $300 billion dollar deal.
- [18:44]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I have a feeling you and me are going to have many conversations like this over the course of the next 30 days. Less of course if you factor in the amount of traffic trading days that are left. Sema. Thanks Malcolm, I come to you. You own the stock, I've talked to you about it before. But now how do you think about it? Are you watching the debt, the credit default swaps more than the stock price these days?
- [19:08]
Malcolm Etheridge
Yeah. So this one has given me a ton of pause. And so one of my rules as an investor is just when in doubt, don't. And this one has a lot of doubt around it. So I've been trying to find an opportunity to get back into this name following selling 50% of the position across the book back in October. And I've just finally decided there's too much smoke here for me to feel comfortable adding additional dollars back into this name. So we're taking those gains. We'll find another place to deploy it within the trade that I think is more likely to be on solid footing because just the reporting that the information has done around Metta and their creative financing and off book financing and everything else of their data centers to get into this space in a way that doesn't shake their balance sheet makes me wonder the same about Oracle even more I think because they don't have a direct path the same way that Metta does to generating revenue from those investments. And so I think that Oracle is a story that needs to be continue to be reported on like you just mentioned Siemens been doing day after day until there's clarity there. I just think it's one that you stay away from.
- [20:10]
Scott Wapner
It tees up a pretty good week for what's going to come down next week. Software. Our earnings, the software ETF by the way is having its worst month since January of 2022. Now it's been skewed by a few names versus others. But Malcolm, you do have a move related to that and I think that's what you're alluding to in your answer about Oracle just now. You taking your dollars and putting them elsewhere where you feel more confident. Maybe cyber, maybe Zscaler dollar for example, which by the way the target got trimmed today to 390 from 400 at Berenberg. You added more. Why?
- [20:45]
Malcolm Etheridge
Well, I don't know of a. If a $10 trim is that meaningful to me as an investor and would shake my confidence all that much. And I think, just separately, I think throwing the software names in with the rest of software. Sorry, throwing the cybersecurity names in with the rest of software is the market doing a disruption service here. And it's been happening for quite a while. And I think that's the reason that a lot of these names have been trading down. But I bought more Zscaler on Wednesday following earnings because the stock traded down about 10% and I don't really know what the market was looking for. They reported 26% growth in annually recurring revenue year over year. They reported additional. They beat basically across the board. And to me, it looks like an opportunity where this company that's redone its salesforce over the last year, it's gotten very focused with the Z Flex model on being the platform that a lot of these companies try to become. It's. It. To me, it's firing on all cylinders. And so investors looking for an opportunity to get into a name that hasn't really had the growth that we talked about. Nvidia at a thousand percent, for example, or even Alphabet at 250% or something. I know it's selling at a little bit of a premium right now, but zscaler, to me, 45% or so of the Fortune 500 they're securing right now looks like a great opportunity to be buying into a company that's been taken down with the entire sector that it doesn't really belong to, in my opinion.
- [22:10]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, well, we'll get some earnings next week. We'll have time on both Monday and Tuesday to talk about those. I want to get to one more move, though, out of the finance, the financial space. Brin, you bought more of Blue Owl Tech Finance etf. We really were watching BTC stocks very closely over the last month at least, and they all had a bad month. All. All of them. Why are you buying more?
- [22:36]
Bryn Talkington
So I think when you look at how people underwrite debt, right, Whether it's pimco, whether it's Blue Owl, you really have to Apollo or Ares, etc. Who's doing the underwriting? And do you have confidence in that team? And so to me, I keep coming back to the strategy, which I added to again last Friday when everyone had their hair on fire again around private credit, when ultimately I know the team, they do very good job of underwriting every position I have transparency of. Anyone does if they go to the Investor Relationship. Investor Relationship website. So it's like over 80% are first lien senior secured. These are profitable companies, the Navy or the book values closer to 17. And so I think over the next year I can add to this position in the 13 fourteens, I can probably get 10 to 15% upside in the name and then another 10% in yield. So when I look back a year from now, I think I can get a 10, I'm sorry, a 20 to 25% total return on a name that I know the team and the underwriting, I just think the market is wrong on this. They're really confident the market is wrong on this. Us and Blue Owl, especially in this strategy, does a wonderful job underwriting the debt they're taking on.
- [23:47]
Scott Wapner
All right. You see the market pushing that a little bit higher, about 1% or so on that. All right. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back. We're going to check in on the start of the holiday shopping season. And Stephanie Link buying more of a retail name as Black Friday gets into high gear. We're back.
- [24:03]
Stephanie Link
Next.
- [24:07]
Ripple Podcast Host
Think of your commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office. So why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Blockstars, the podcast. It's happening with Ripple.
- [24:38]
Stephanie Link
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- [25:36]
Scott Wapner
All right, welcome back. It's a big day for retail, of course, the holiday shopping season kicking off officially. Let's get to Courtney Reagan. She is at the Garden State Plaza Mall in Paramus, New Jersey with more. Hey, Court.
- [25:48]
Courtney Reagan
Hi. Good to see you, Scott. It is a really busy day here. So far it makes sense. It's Black Friday it's supposed to be the busiest but truly it really is. From what we've seen here since the very beginning, before the stores were open, there were lines that had formed inside this mall. Now TD Cowan's that team channel checks, they're saying, look, we think, we think that promotions are deeper and we actually think they're simpler, easier for consumers to understand. By its read, they think that Walmart is executing well as along with Gap and Levi and Ulta. They said Target, Kohl's, Macy's, execution maybe not so good, but check out some of the lines here at the Garden State Plaza Westfield mall. This is four, four plus hours into opening and traffic is still being metered outside a lot of these stores. I mean today is forecast to be the biggest in store shopping day of the year by firms that count these things like Sensormatic and retail Next, even if it's not as big as it once was. I mean check out this foot traffic. We've got stores with lines outside like Lululemon, Skims, Ugg, Aloe, Aritzia and more. And it's really been happening all day. The NRF does say that some 130 property plus million Americans will shop in some format today in store, online, maybe both. That makes it by far the biggest day of the five. Between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, Adobe expects Black Friday online sales will grow more than 8% to nearly $12 billion. Thanksgiving Day E Commerce slightly outpaced expectations, growing by more than 5%. Captify says TJ Maxx, Dick's Sporting Goods, JCPenney, Kohl's and Barnes and Noble are the top searched retail brands online by growth over last Black Friday and the I buy retail ETF that's up about a percent. That's well more than the S&P 500. Today we're seeing shares of Kohl's and Abercrombie continue to move higher after both of those names reported results that were better than expected. And there were lines outside this Hollister store which was the stronger of the two main Abercrombie brands when it reported results earlier this week.
- [27:49]
Scott Wapner
Scott, judging by how it looks inside, I can't even imagine what the parking lot must look like. Courtney, thank you.
- [27:55]
Courtney Reagan
I know very much I haven't been out there in a long time.
- [27:57]
Stephanie Link
I don't know.
- [27:58]
Ripple Podcast Host
Yeah.
- [27:59]
Scott Wapner
Thank you, Courtney Reagan. Steph brings me to you because you have bought more of Dick's Sporting Goods, which is a new buy. And why are you adding more so soon?
- [28:11]
Stephanie Link
Well, the Stock is down 11% from its highs and I just Went through all of the details from when they reported earnings and the numbers were really good. Scott. Their core business is humming. Same store sales at 5.7% and that is. That's versus 6.4% last year. So it was a really hard comparison. And they're still putting up really good numbers. They guided higher and they're increasing their market share for sure. Now the one problem is Foot Locker. They bought Foot Locker and it's been a disaster for them. But they took a charge. They're right sizing what they need to do. They're improving the inventory. So it's, it's basically, I think the upside is really going to come from the continued strength from the core business. But then as they turn this footlocker franchise around, I think you're going to really see better than expected. Same store sales going forward. So it may take a little time, Scott, but I want to be more long. Consumer discretionary, as we talked about earlier, because consumer is, is doing what they're doing. They're spending and we're getting all kinds of data points that reflect that. Right. I mean, retail sales last month grew 5.7%. That's a really big number. And then you look at like some of the card spending, the credit card data. Credit card data is actually accelerating. So I think the consumer is going to show up for the holidays, just like Courtney just talked about. And I want to be more long.
- [29:29]
Scott Wapner
What gets you back into the Gap? What stock have to do? It's at a good month. You need a decline to get back in.
- [29:40]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I mean, just a little bit. I would love it. I mean, it's a, it's a pretty high beta stock, Scott. So on any given day, it could be down 3, 4 or 5%. If that's the case, I absolutely would be getting back in. I mean, the stock is. Is trading at 11 times forward estimates, by the way, so is Dick's. I mean, 11 times earnings where earnings are actually going higher. And they are also delivering. Gap is also delivering on the comp side across the spectrum, other than Athleta, but nobody in Athleisure is doing well. So I think they're going to turn that eventually. But the other parts of the business is key Old Navy in the Gap brands, banana Republic. That's 80% of their revenue. So, yeah, I mean, I'm looking at. And I'm watching it every day. I'm kind of mad that I sold it, but I made money. You know, I was up 25% in the name. So if it pulls back. I definitely like the story because I think the turn is here for real.
- [30:25]
Scott Wapner
All right, you'll let us know. Quick break. Coming up next, the kiff and kerfuffle and a financial free for all decision day looming for one of college football's most controversial coaches. We'll break down the big money on the line next.
- [30:43]
Ripple Podcast Host
Think of your commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office. So why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Blockstars, the podcast. It's happening with Ripple, the heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the international space station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move, having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx. The new power move.
- [31:44]
Scott Wapner
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- [32:00]
Malcolm Etheridge
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Scott Wapner
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- [33:01]
Andrew Beaton
Thanks so much for having me, Scott.
- [33:02]
Scott Wapner
Enjoy the story that you wrote the other day. This is a pretty unusual situation, isn't it? A highly regarded college football coach coaching a top 10 team and openly, as you write, flirting with two of the program's biggest rivals, LSU and Florida, and nobody really knows what he is going to decide to do.
- [33:24]
Andrew Beaton
That's right. What should be a moment of absolute celebration for Ole Miss. This is a team that is on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff. They're playing right now in their big rivalry game against Mississippi State. But the problem is they have no clue that even if they reach the playoff, if Lane Kiffin will still be coaching the team. We can find out as soon as this evening or tomorrow whether or not Lane Kiffin is accepting a job offer from a school like LSU or Florida, which are two schools that are really well heeled. They come with a lot of money. And the question is, will he stay or will he go? And it's just a pretty wild situation. Situation that we're all watching play out.
- [34:01]
Scott Wapner
I guess I said I should take back what I said. I said it's a pretty unusual situation. But maybe not for Lane Kiffin, because this kind of stuff seems to follow him as you write, wherever he goes. This is kind of how he rolls. You wrote quote, Lane Kiffin has enraged more fan bases than any coach in recent history. It hasn't stopped him from emerging as the most coveted candidate in college football's craziest hiring cycle. What's really interesting here, too, is trying to answer the question of why is he so coveted? He's never won a national championship as a head coach, nor has he even made the playoff. So what is it?
- [34:39]
Andrew Beaton
So one thing that Lane Kiven has shown is that he's an offensive genius. And he helped Alabama, when they were coached by Nick Saban, win a national championship as their offensive coordinator, play caller. And he's sort of living proof of how much a big time college football program will put up with in the sake of winning. Because everywhere he's gone, chaos has followed. This is a guy who was the youngest head coach in modern NFL history with the Raiders. That lasted about a year and a half after some not so successful seasons and clashing with the team's legendary owner, Al Davis. He was then at Tennessee, where he bolted after a year. He still might be the most hated man in that entire state. And when he went from there to usc, he wasn't the savior he was cracked up to be. And that ended after a few years. But he's shown that this is a guy who can call offensive plays. He rehabilitated himself when he was coaching at Alabama. Then he took a smaller program, completely turned it around. And what he's done at Ole Miss is start to show these bigger schools that say, hey, he's doing it at an SEC school. All right? Could he win national championship at a school like lsu.
- [35:54]
Scott Wapner
It's interesting because I mean he's going to win again because you suggest he's going to become the highest paid coach ever. There are already reports that LSU has offered him 90 million around there, plus an additional 25 million in quote unquote, quote roster cash that, you know, Florida and Ole Miss are ready to offer him maybe 13 to 14 million dollars a year. So he's going to win no matter what.
- [36:19]
Andrew Beaton
Yeah, that's absolutely right. Because whether it's a new contract from Ole Miss or if he bolts to a school like lsu, the one thing that's not in doubt here is that Lane Kiffin is going to get paid. And when you have a bidding war between well heeled programs like Florida, LSU to go along with Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin is the one winner here. While all three fan bases are sitting at the edge of their seat wondering if Lane Kiffin is going to coach them or not.
- [36:46]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Lastly, I'll tell you, you know, after the events recently with so many different high profile and highly paid coaches getting fired, Brian Kelly obviously at LSU comes to mind. There was a suggestion that maybe that was last straw, that hiring these coaches and paying them tens of millions of dollars a year, huge, huge contracts, etc. And then firing them after a short period of time and then giving them a payout, maybe enough was enough. This whole Kiffin kerfuffle would suggest that nothing will ever change in college football.
- [37:23]
Andrew Beaton
Yeah. You know, there's been so many inflection points where you wonder if that will change. You know, this is an era where the players are getting paid. So you wonder, all right, is that going to start to put some downward pressure on coaching salaries? But when these big time college football programs and aren't winning at the level that the administration and the fans expect, the one solution that they always try to have is throw money at the problem. And so they can look at a coach like Lane Kiffin and say, all right, he's supposed to, supposed to be the answer. How much does it cost? And it's almost becomes a supply and demand thing where even if these buyouts and firings make it look completely ridiculous down the road, at a certain point a bidding war is just going to raise the price.
- [38:05]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Andrew, appreciate your time. They'll be talking about this game tomorrow. Probably more so for what Lane Kiffin decides to do off the field. And we shall see. And we may talk to you again. Thank you. Up next, calls of the day. A price target hike from one of bridges tech plays. It's down nearly 20% this month. We will discuss next. All right, we are back. Let's do some committee. Stocks on the move today or calls Dell Target raised to 160 from 150 reiterated by it CITIC Securities. Bryn, you own the stock?
- [38:37]
Stephanie Link
Yeah.
- [38:38]
Bryn Talkington
I mean just last week we were talking about that double downgrade down to 120 by think Morgan Stanley because of memory prices. And so I think Michael Dell and team did a great job of although gross margins were down about 1.4% operating margins actually went higher because of cost cutting. And so they increased guidance. I think that's probably the biggest reason the stock was up after earnings is that increased guide and that infrastructure solutions group is really, that's the data center I play is just growing. You know, revenues are up 27%. And so to me this is like you have the anemic PC area which is not growing and then you have this other group which is growing, looking to grow 20, 27% this quarter and increase guide. So I think it's more of like a growth at a reasonable price company. And once again Michael Dell has seen so many cycles and so I think the stock should continue to be part of people's basket around benefits from the AI data center or play longer term.
- [39:35]
Scott Wapner
All right, let's talk Netflix now. Stranger Things 5 premieres. You watch that you own the stock, will you. Were you ready for that last night?
- [39:44]
Joe Terranova
Listen, it's. I was not ready for it and it basically over 50% reported issues with streaming. This is comparable. This is comparable to what House of Cards was for Netflix. And let's first talk about the stock for a second because stock is down since the end of the June nearly 20% over a one year basis though it's still 21% higher. And Scott, I think this is a classic example of you need to exhibit patience in this name. I don't think there's been any fundamental deterioration that suggests or motivates someone to sell out of the stock.
- [40:17]
Scott Wapner
You think it ran up too much?
- [40:18]
Joe Terranova
I think, I think it might have ran up a little bit too much. I think it also right now is going through a consolidation period. Look at the beginning of the year. There was a lot of good news. There was a lot of good news surrounding what we knew it was coming with Stranger Things. There was a lot of good news surrounding live sports programming and I think we pulled forward a lot of the.
- [40:36]
Scott Wapner
Positive 80 to 130 in a reasonably short period of time back toward, towards the spring. Right.
- [40:42]
Joe Terranova
Very Short period of time. So I think this is a moment where you're kind of waiting as it relates to Stranger Things. Just think about how powerful this is. You're talking about from. From 2020 to the second quarter of 2025, nearly $1 billion in streaming revenue. How many subscribers did they add specifically because of Stranger Things? That's remarkable. I would argue it's probably in the millions.
- [41:05]
Scott Wapner
There's that big run in the chart from mid-22 until earlier this year. Starbucks. The union escalating their strike on Black Friday. Steph, you own the stock. You bought more this week.
- [41:20]
Bryn Talkington
Mm.
- [41:20]
Stephanie Link
And if it's weak on this news, I would buy even more. It's not a great headline, but they will resolve this eventually. The turnaround is the most important part of the story under Brian Niccol, who's great at turning around companies and it's happening faster than expected. And the fact that they've seen the first positive same store sales comp. The first one in two years absolutely proves that he is doing a really good job so far. And the turn is just beginning. So again, if it's weak on this headline, I'm a buyer. I really also like the JV that they did on their China operations. They have 40% share now in the China operations. They got 2.4 billion in cash as a result. But they still participate in the growth from 8,000 stores in China to 20,000 over the next 10 years.
- [42:07]
Scott Wapner
All right, crypto's made a bounce. We will take a break because Brin has made a move in that space. We'll tell you what it is next. Welcome back. Told you Bitcoin's had a bit of a bounce and Brin's made a bit of a move. You bought more bit mine Immersion bmnr. I'm wondering what you think of Bitcoin as an asset at this point and tell us about why this move.
- [42:37]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, well, I bought it last Friday. You can clearly see the shorts were just hammering. Both bit mine and MicroStrategy stock got to 25. So I just held my nose and bought some, which is what you have to do. Especially a theory was down close to 40%. I think that Etherium is more of a technology. They're going to continue to build these stablecoins on top of ether. And I think that bitcoin is more like digital gold. And so I think there's different reasons to own them both. And I think Ethereum is far cheaper just because the use cases I think are just starting with all the stablecoins.
- [43:08]
Scott Wapner
All right, Coinbase, by the way, got its Target trimmed today to 404 from 417. We'll take a break. Mike Santoli, he's on the other side as we head towards the close on this holiday short and trading day. We are back, CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoles here at post nine. As we count down to this early close, we'll see if we can go positive for the month. We are right on the cusp of doing just that.
- [43:36]
Joe Terranova
Yes.
- [43:37]
Scott Wapner
What's your big takeaway from what we've done here?
- [43:39]
Mike Santoli
I mean it's a five day sprint up almost 5% from this time a week ago and it just sort of shows you. I think because there was enough of a shake up below the surface, you did have a little bit of a scare put into the market. It was plenty to respond in a favorable way to what we got. Right. Which was a little bit of a, a dovish pivot in Fed rhetoric. Obviously. Bitcoin firms up. I think those were the two things that had people worrying that there was something else going on besides just the normal lull seasonally. So the market's behaving almost like you would expect it to and so that's sometimes comforting. I don't know about it if we're up for the full month. I know it's nip and tuck at the close if it really matters that much because I was looking at some, some numbers that said if you, you're up six months in a row, which we have been, and then down for a month, it actually usually doesn't mean the end of the trend. So you know, it's interesting. I usually like when streaks get broken, not when they continue because that lets you reset the clock and have the market tested. Also very broad. I know a lot of people are looking for these, like whether we get one of these breath momentum signals probably doesn't, isn't going to happen at the close today. But it just tells you the market answered the complaints. The complaints were it's all about I, we're giving too much credit to these companies and most stocks are not participating. The last five days have been the opposite. And one final thing, we're flat on the S and P this month with Nvidia down 12 and a half percent. A lot of folks would not have thought that would be possible.
- [45:03]
Scott Wapner
It's funny, I recall you the other day which really stuck with me, this idea of so many V shaped bottoms.
- [45:09]
Malcolm Etheridge
Yeah.
- [45:09]
Scott Wapner
In this, in this current cycle you can go all the way back, you know, to deep Seek. V Shaped Bottom. Liberation Day. V Shape Bounce. Private credit concerns a couple of months back. V Shape Bounce. Bitcoin Unravel.
- [45:24]
Mike Santoli
You could probably go back even. And that was mostly me kind of like reminding myself of that, because when we get into these pullback modes, it's like, well, we're kind of oversold. Maybe not there. Maybe we'll have to retest it. Maybe we have these upside hurdles. Maybe you have to go prove that this is not resistance and it's all true. And those old playbooks apply to some degree, but it's sort of like, don't be surprised if the market's got enough behind it just to get you over those hurdles in a hurry. You don't have to worry about. We're not there yet. And I keep mentioning last year you had a little more upside after Thanksgiving for a few days, and then we actually had a sloppy finish to the year for three weeks. So there's nothing guaranteed here.
- [46:03]
Joe Terranova
All right.
- [46:03]
Scott Wapner
It's good to see you, Mike. Great having you here. Bryn, give me a final trade, please.
- [46:08]
Stephanie Link
Yes.
- [46:08]
Bryn Talkington
Speaking of Liberation Day, the cybersecurity ETF bug, it's almost back down there. I think it's a good entry point if you don't have any cybersecurity exposure.
- [46:16]
Scott Wapner
Okay. We found out, Malcolm, that you've added to yours. What's your final trade?
- [46:21]
Malcolm Etheridge
Yeah, I guess doubling down here. CrowdStrike reports next week. See my previous comments about Zscaler.
- [46:27]
Scott Wapner
Okay, Stephen.
- [46:31]
Stephanie Link
Amazon Positive Catalyst next week at their Reinvent conference.
- [46:35]
Joe Terranova
And Jyoti, speaking of Amazon, about prologis. It's a REIT which has a relationship with Amazon.
- [46:41]
Scott Wapner
They're going to ring the bell to end this holiday short and trading day. The kids are up there. I see Santa up there, too. They're going to ring in a positive month, too. It looks like for this month of November, we had to get about 6842ish to do that. It looks like we're are, in fact, because of what's happened in the last five trading days, get a nice little burst to the finish here in November and finish positive. Have a great weekend. I'll see you on the other side of that. Into overtime at Morgan. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:28]
Stephanie Link
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Think of your.
- [48:07]
Ripple Podcast Host
Commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office, so why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on blockstars, the podcast. It's happening with Ripple.