CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Will Stocks Rally into Year-End?
Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge, Bryn Talkington
Special Contributors: Mike Santoli, Courtney Reagan, Andrew Beaton

Main Theme

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report explores whether the robust stock market rally seen during the final week of November can carry through to year-end. Host Scott Wapner and a panel of top market participants dig into sector performance, the impact of interest rate expectations, rotational trades in big tech and financials, retail strength through Black Friday, and analysts’ calls on individual stocks and sectors. The episode features a blend of tactical trading insight and broader market analysis, with notable discussion on the relevance of “breadth” in the rally, rotation out of tech, and whether the elusive “Santa Claus Rally” is taking shape for investors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Rally and Santa Claus Hopes

• Stocks Up, Yields Down: All major indices trading higher in the last hour, with the Dow up ~300 points. Declining yields have been seen as beneficial for stocks, particularly small caps.

• Santa Claus Rally Optimism:

  • Joe Terranova [01:57]: “A Santa Claus rally would be good. And I think it looks, it looks, Scott, like we're potentially going to get it. We've reversed a lot of the negative momentum that greeted us in the month of November.”
  • A lot of optimism is tied to the belief that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, supporting the rally.

• Market Breadth Improving:

  • It’s notable that the equal-weight S&P is outperforming, and the Russell 2000 (small caps) has improved.
  • Malcolm Etheridge [03:09]: “I think Joe is making an important point that the equal weight is what's actually been performing well this month. It's surprising to me... that portfolio managers that have been underweight tech... risk being caught out.”

Timestamps: [01:57–03:36]

2. Rotation and 'Everything Rally' Narrative

• Market Leadership Rotation:

  • Bryn Talkington highlights skepticism over small-cap/equal weight outperforming sustainably but notes that big tech remains dominant, with major hedge funds rotating between big names like Alphabet and Nvidia.
  • The panel expects further dispersion in returns among mega-cap tech names, similar to historic rotations (e.g. Tesla/Uber).

• Animal Spirits & Economic Tailwinds:

  • Stephanie Link [05:12]: “But I think the setup into the end of the year is very positive. Seasonally on average, December is up about one and a half percent... the economy continues to surprise to the upside.”

• Sector Strength Beyond Tech:

  • Financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary are named as areas seeing strength, indicating broadening participation—not just tech-driven gains.
  • Stephanie Link [06:23]: “I think it's going to be tech plus everything else. And I think you want to be as long as you can into the end of the year.”

Timestamps: [03:36–07:46]

3. Tech Shake-Up and Mega Cap Moves

• Alphabet, Nvidia, and Sector Dispersion:

  • Alphabet’s stock surge credited partly to Sergey Brin returning and reportedly bringing a founder’s urgency to execution and innovation.
  • Nvidia down 11% for the month, but context provided: Over three years, Nvidia remains up 1,000%.
  • Bryn Talkington [09:57]: “Having that founder mentality come back... let's move quickly and let's take out the bureaucracy, you're seeing that in the price.”
  • Debate over new chip leadership, with Alphabet’s TPUs mentioned, but Bryn emphasizes chip diversification and Nvidia’s stickiness due to CUDA software.

• Will Broader Leadership Last?

  • Scott Wapner [12:35]: “If you have technology underperform the way it did, you're not going to get a big move into year end. However broad it might look, it's not going to be great.”
  • Panel consensus: For a real year-end surge, tech participation remains essential despite talk of broadening.

Timestamps: [08:20–14:30]

4. Sector Snapshots & Economic Health

• Financials/Industrials Importance:

  • Stephanie Link stresses that while tech is vital, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials must also rally for a genuine market move.
  • Stephanie Link [13:18]: "We do need technology to participate... but I'm paying attention to some other sectors because they're meaningful."

• Discretionary Strength and Holiday Season Outlook:

  • Strong jobs/income data and falling inflation are seen as positives. Stephanie Link is bullish on discretionary as well as tech.
  • Stephanie Link [15:26]: “I think you also have consumer and you add it all up and that's really where the better value is in discretionary, in financials, in industrials versus tech. But you know, you don't want to fight against the tech... tailwinds.”

Timestamps: [14:30–16:43]

5. Oracle's Debt Dilemma and Software Sector Troubles

• Oracle down 22% for the month; credit risks highlighted by Morgan Stanley’s recommendation to buy credit default swaps for protection.
• Malcolm Etheridge [19:08]: “This one has given me a ton of pause... just the reporting that the information has done around Metta and their creative financing... makes me wonder the same about Oracle.”
• Broader software ETF (IGV) having its worst month since January 2022—panelists are seeking stronger ground in other tech subsectors, particularly cybersecurity.

Timestamps: [16:43–20:45]

6. Cybersecurity a Bright Spot Amid Software Slump

• Malcolm Etheridge adds to Zscaler, noting its strong fundamentals (26% revenue growth), and argues cybersecurity deserves to be carved out from broader software.
• Malcolm Etheridge [20:45]: “I think throwing the cybersecurity names in with the rest of software is the market doing a disruption service here.”
• Brin Talkington recommends the cybersecurity ETF “BUG” as an entry point, citing sector headwinds creating opportunity.

Timestamps: [20:45–22:10 / 46:07]

7. Retail Roundup: Black Friday Strength & Consumer Outlook

• On the Ground: Courtney Reagan reports bustling mall activity for Black Friday, with outsized promotions and strong turnout in stores like Lululemon, Ugg, Aritzia, while Macy's/Target lag.

• Online sales poised to grow 8% YoY, according to Adobe.

  • Courtney Reagan [25:47]: “It is a really busy day here... By its read, they think that Walmart is executing well as along with Gap and Levi and Ulta. They said Target, Kohl's, Macy's... not so good.”

• Investable Takeaways:

  • Stephanie Link adds to Dick’s Sporting Goods, citing strong same-store sales and recovering trends. Open to getting back into Gap if valuation pulls back.
  • Stephanie Link [28:10]: “I want to be more long. Consumer discretionary, as we talked about earlier, because consumer is doing what they're doing... we're getting all kinds of data points that reflect that.”

Timestamps: [25:36–30:24]

8. Hot Topic: College Football’s Coaching Cash Splash

• Andrew Beaton, Wall Street Journal: Insight on college football’s high-stakes coaching carousel: Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future fuels bidding wars among top programs (LSU, Florida, Ole Miss).
• Andrew Beaton [36:19]: “Whether it’s a new contract from Ole Miss or if he bolts to a school like LSU... Lane Kiffin is the one winner here. While all three fan bases are sitting at the edge of their seat.”

Timestamps: [32:00–38:04]

9. Stocks on the Move & Calls of the Day

• DELL: Price target raised. Bryn Talkington sees favorable cost management and guidance, citing growth in infrastructure solutions (data centers, AI).
• Netflix: Stock down 20% from June peak, but Joe Terranova sees no fundamental reason for panic, just a required pause after gains.
• Starbucks: Stephanie Link is adding, discounting negative headlines and believing in the new CEO’s turnaround plan.
• Crypto/Blockchain: Brin Talkington bought more BitMine and highlights different investment cases for Bitcoin (digital gold) vs. Ethereum (technology platform). Expects further industry and asset bifurcation.

Timestamps: [38:37–43:07]

10. Market Technicals & Closing Comments

• Mike Santoli (Senior Markets Commentator):

  • Five-day rally of nearly 5% has reversed negative sentiment. Market breadth has improved, addressing earlier complaints about narrow leadership.
  • Mike Santoli [43:38]: “The market answered the complaints... most stocks are not participating. The last five days have been the opposite.”
  • Notes repeated “V-shaped” recoveries, but cautions nothing is guaranteed for the remainder of the year.

• Final Trades (46:07):

  • Bryn Talkington: Cybersecurity ETF “BUG”
  • Malcolm Etheridge: CrowdStrike (earnings next week)
  • Stephanie Link: Amazon (catalyst: AWS re:Invent conference)
  • Joe Terranova: Prologis REIT (ties to Amazon expansion)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Stephanie Link [05:12]: “The market always worries about something. I actually worry when I don't worry because that means that we're complacent.”
• Malcolm Etheridge [03:09]: “Portfolio managers that have been underweight tech... risk being caught out.”
• Bryn Talkington [09:57]: “Having that founder mentality come back (to Alphabet)... you're seeing that in the price.”
• Joe Terranova [06:48]: “It’s broadening out. We've talked a lot about health care... but beyond that you have GM, Las Vegas Sands, Synchrony Financial, Walmart, Welltower, the steel names... so it's broadening out.”
• Mike Santoli [43:38]: “The last five days have been the opposite. The market answered the complaints.”
• Courtney Reagan [25:47]: “It is a really busy day here. So far it makes sense. It's Black Friday it's supposed to be the busiest but truly it really is.”
• Andrew Beaton [36:19]: “Lane Kiffin is the one winner here. While all three fan bases are sitting at the edge of their seat...”
• Stephanie Link [28:10]: “I want to be more long. Consumer discretionary... we're getting all kinds of data points that reflect that.”

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

• Market outlook & Santa Claus rally: 01:57–03:36
• Rotation, equal weight, and breadth: 03:36–07:46
• Tech shake-up, Alphabet/Nvidia: 08:20–14:30
• Sector rotation & economic context: 14:30–16:43
• Oracle/software sector woes: 16:43–20:45
• Cybersecurity discussion: 20:45, 46:07
• Retail/Black Friday update: 25:36–30:24
• College football high-stakes contract drama: 32:00–38:04
• Stock/sector calls: 38:37–43:07
• Market technicals/closing: 43:07–46:07
• Final trades: 46:07–end

Conclusion

The November 28, 2025 Halftime Report episode reflected a rising tide of bullishness as markets climbed back from recent volatility, with hopes of a Santa Claus rally. Despite some sectoral rotations and tech laggards, the panel broadly agreed that a strong economy, resilient consumer, and cyclical participation bode well for year-end. Tech must still lead, but retail, financials, and cybersecurity are strong plays, while uncertainties in software and credit markets (Oracle) warrant caution. The episode captured Wall Street’s cautious optimism—underscored by real-time holiday shopping data and a “breadth” recovery theme—sending investors into December with plenty to debate and watch.