CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Year-End Rally or a Reversal Ahead?
Date: September 29, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Guests/Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Brent Thill

Overview: Episode Theme

This episode centers on whether the current bullish momentum in global equities will translate into a year-end rally or face a reversal. Spurred by a recent upgrade from Goldman Sachs, the panel debates the sustainability of record market highs, macroeconomic tailwinds like Fed easing and tech investment, and key risks that could derail the rally.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Goldman Sachs' "Year-End Rally" Call

• Core Thesis: Continued earnings growth, Fed rate cuts, and supportive global fiscal policy justify an overweight on global equities.
• Brent Thill: Supports the call, notes "the trend is your friend" and highlights tech spend and data center growth as GDP drivers. Expects stimulus and infrastructure to further lift markets.

  “It’s hard to be negative at this point with that backdrop I just walked through.” (01:59)

• Steve Weiss: Simplifies the view: “Don’t fight the Fed.” Acknowledges it’s a “hated bull market” due to high valuations, but sees momentum persisting unless earnings falter.

  “While I don’t think anybody’s happy with valuation...there’s no reason to believe...it won’t take another leg higher.” (02:46)

• Jenny Harrington: Sees discomfort in the market; clients are nervous due to high multiples, S&P concentration, and past big gains. However, finds little alternative to equities.

  “There’s not much else to be in...even the value stocks...have decent earnings growth.” (04:28)

2. Market Discomfort Despite Positive Backdrop

• Tone: Widespread unease about the sustainability of gains, driven by PTSD from previous corrections, high valuations (S&P near 23x earnings), market concentration, and longer-term risks (e.g., AI’s impact on jobs, geopolitics).
• Jenny Harrington:

  “It feels uncomfortable and it feels frothy...That concentration in the S&P 500 makes people queasy.” (05:05)

3. Momentum & Positioning

• Joe Terranova: Momentum, not fundamentals, is currently driving the market. Global central banks (86%) are easing, supporting the secular bull thesis.

  “Right now the dominant force is that flow of capital that we characterize as momentum.” (09:58)

4. AI’s Economic Impact

• Labor Market: Discussions revolve around AI slowly impacting jobs, which affects corporate hiring and might influence the unemployment rate.
  • Jenny Harrington:

    “It’s not going to be an overnight landslide. It’s going to be a slow creep.” (08:11)

  • Scott Wapner: Notes the market’s myopia—investors focus on immediate returns, not long-term AI risks.

5. Tech & Semiconductors Leadership

• Nvidia & Chips:
  • Action: Tech, especially semiconductors like Nvidia, Micron, AMD, Broadcom, are leading the rally.
  • Brent Thill: Cites massive AI investment and data center growth as justification for bullishness.

    “The spend is massive...as long as hyperscalers don’t do an Oracle and go negative free cash flow...we’re good.” (10:50)

• Valuation Concerns: Weiss calls out private-market bubble risk, excessive investments in “game-changing” tech, and possibility of a shakeout similar to the dotcom era. (12:40)

  “There will be a lot of overspending...maybe not to the extent that we saw...in the dot com bubble, but right now the momentum is going.”

6. Impact of Tariffs and Geopolitical Risk

• Biden Tariffs Talk: Market skeptical about headlines—distinguishes between “plausible” and “ridiculous” tariff threats.
  • Jenny Harrington:

    “The movie stuff goes into the ridiculous bucket but concrete things go into the plausible bucket...” (18:25)

• China Risk: Despite defense stocks rallying on China conflict fears, Taiwan Semi (TSMC) remains strong. Weiss flags the contradiction and risk complacency.

  “If China does go to war...that hits the global economy...but the market’s complacent and that built in for that risk.” (17:24)

7. Emerging Market Rotation

• China Tech Rebounds:
  • Goldman sees renewed bullishness due to AI and China’s drive for tech leadership.
  • Steve Weiss: Regrets missing recent China tech rally, but acknowledges government support turns sector investible again (25:01).

8. Stock-Specific & Sector Moves

• Robinhood (HOOD): Surges on product innovation and momentum; heavy user engagement in prediction markets and crypto. (20:33)
• Electronic Arts Acquisition: Noted for surprise $55B LBO, panel members discuss windfall and M&A arbitrage.
  • Joe Terranova:

    “We bought it because of momentum...Didn’t think it was going to go out at a $55B valuation.” (22:53)

• Star Bulk Carriers Sale: Jenny details exit—huge total return on investment, rotating into higher quality, lower risk consumer staples. (28:51)
• Furniture Sector: Tariffs impact U.S.-centric firms (Ethan Allen) less than import-heavy peers (Williams Sonoma, Restoration Hardware). Jenny highlights business model defensiveness. (32:08)

9. Market Bubble Risk: Santoli’s Perspective

• Michael Santoli (CNBC Senior Markets Commentator): Market not at “bubble” extremes—returns are strong but orderly, no massive late-cycle acceleration or euphoria. Advantage is regular “pressure relief” through corrections. (36:34)

  “Every single MAG7 stock...has had basically a 30% or more decline except for Microsoft...It just didn’t happen all at the same time.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Weiss, on current bull market:

  “This is truly a hated bull market because valuation is where it is.” (02:46)

• Jenny Harrington, on investor unease:

  “It feels uncomfortable and it feels frothy.” (05:05)

• Joe Terranova, on momentum vs fundamentals:

  “Right now the market is not focused on what the multiple might be...the dominant force is that flow of capital that we characterize as momentum.” (09:58)

• Brent Thill, on AI investment:

  “Jensen [CEO, Nvidia]...not the billions, you know, trillions...A billion seconds is 32 years and a trillion seconds is 32,000 years.” (10:50)

• Jenny Harrington, on AI jobs risk:

  “It’s not an overnight landslide. It’s going to be a slow creep.” (08:11)

• Steve Weiss, on private valuations:

  “Valuations in the public markets pale...to the private markets. Take companies like Nvidia...investing $50 million in this robotics company...no commercial revenues.” (12:40)

Timestamps of Key Segments

| Segment Description | Speaker(s) | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------------|---------------------|----------------| | Goldman’s bullish call discussion | Wapner, Thill, Weiss, Harrington | 01:01–05:18 | | Discomfort with current bull market | Harrington, Terranova| 04:04–07:50 | | AI and the “future of work” | Wapner, Harrington | 07:50–09:58 | | Tech/semiconductors leadership | Wapner, Thill, Weiss | 10:22–12:40 | | Overspending, private vs. public valuations | Weiss | 12:40–14:07 | | Tariffs & geopolitics (semis, TSMC, defense) | Wapner, Weiss, Harrington | 14:55–19:09 | | Robinhood’s momentum and product innovation | Wapner, Thill, Terranova | 19:51–22:20 | | Electronic Arts LBO trade | Wapner, Terranova, Weiss | 22:40–23:58 | | China tech rally | Wapner, Weiss, Thill | 24:16–25:46 | | Jenny Harrington’s Star Bulk Carriers sale | Wapner, Harrington | 28:45–31:47 | | Sector rotation: Furniture & tariffs | Wapner, Harrington, Terranova | 31:47–33:53 | | Michael Santoli on “bubble” risk | Santoli | 36:23–38:42 | | Applovin, Caterpillar, Progressive (“Calls of the Day”) | Wapner, Terranova, Weiss | 39:25–42:25 | | ETF Edge: China & India in Emerging Markets | Thill, Wapner, guest | 43:17–45:18 | | Final trades | All | 46:10–47:19 |

Final Trades (46:10)

• Brent Thill: ETHA (crypto-related ETF due for Q4 “risk-on”)
• Steve Weiss: IBIT (Bitcoin via ETF), also Leidos (cybersecurity/defense)
• Jenny Harrington: Charles Schwab (SCHW)—“fastest earnings growth in financials”
• Joe Terranova: Morgan Stanley—likes the wealth management play

Conclusion: Takeaways for Investors

• The market is riding a wave of momentum fueled by tech, semis, and AI spending, with major institutions (Goldman, etc.) calling for more upside on the back of policy support.
• There’s palpable discomfort with valuations and concentration, but few alternatives to equities in the current environment.
• Market participants are “dancing while the music is playing,” alert to risks like AI job losses, private market euphoria, and geopolitics—but acting on the here and now, not distant risks.
• Tariff headlines are being mostly ignored unless immediately plausible; sector rotation continues on fundamentals and perceived risk.
• The tech trade (US and some global names, especially China) remains dominant, with emerging markets back in focus due to cheap valuations and AI innovation.
• Defensive positioning is in play for some (staples, alpha hunting), but most see little reason yet to exit equities en masse.