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Your All-Time Highs Playbook 9/19/25
00:44:22
Frank Holland and the Investment Committee discuss their All-Time high playbook as stocks hit new records. Plus. The desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Stephanie Link
A rich life isn't a straight line.
- [00:03]
Commercial/Advertisement Voice
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- [01:03]
Frank Holland
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Thank you, Carl and Sarah. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for Scott Wapner front and center at this hour, your playbook at all time highs. The investment committee making a bunch of moves with stocks sitting right at new records. We're going to break down those trades and much more. Joining me for this hour, we have Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe and Kevin Simpson, all of us right here at post 9. Before we get the debate started, let's do a quick check of the market. As they just mentioned, we hit a quadruple all time high yesterday. The three major indices looking like they're on track for another all time high. The NASDAQ up about a third of 1%. The S and P and the Dow fractional gains, the small caps not shown here pulling back more than a half a percent. And I think really that's where we have to start, Steph. We're seeing the markets at all time highs. So what do you do now?
- [02:02]
Stephanie Link
I mean, I feel like we're set up really well into the end of the year. I was expecting September to be pretty volatile. We really haven't gotten it and we might get the next couple of weeks a little bit of volatility. But I think you want to be buying into it. And that's because the economy is really strong and you're getting a fed that's cutting into a strong economy that's led by the consumer. And I know we can talk about the labor market, guys, but the labor market is cooling. It's not collapsing. And the consumer, if they have A job. They have 5% wage growth. Inflation is kind of just staying around here. It's not spiking. That's a recipe for good results. We have great credit card spending data, we have good savings data and consumer 70% of the economy. We have a manufacturing renaissance that you and I have talked about many times on your show. Anything tied to a data center, grid power. And that's really also driving a lot more capex, more than we have seen in the past. And so the Fed's going to do their thing and if they do two cuts or three cuts, you don't fight that. That's, that's the old adage. You don't fight the Fed and you don't fight the global central bankers too. And they're cutting as well. So I think the growth environment is better than expected. And the only reason I care is because it's good for earnings. And I think earnings are going to be running about double digits.
- [03:13]
Frank Holland
One point to push back on. Are we sure in a rate cutting cycle, I think a lot of people like to look at that cut we just saw as an insurance cut. Are we sure that the Fed's going to continue cutting because inflation, it may not be rising, but it is very sticky, almost 1% above the Fed's target. And do you think the main catalyst for these record highs, is it the idea we're getting more rate cuts?
- [03:30]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I think we are going to get more rate cuts because again, the labor market is cooling, it's slowing and that's very important. And I think the inflation being sticky is less on tariffs and more because we have better than expected growth in the economy. We're running at about a 3, 3, 3.3% in the Atlanta Fed Tracker, whatever it is, it's 2 and a half, 3% and that's very healthy. And if that leads to a little bit more inflation, I'm okay with it from an earnings point of view because companies can handle it. And that's why we saw earnings grow double expectations last quarter. And I think for the full year it's going to be the same.
- [04:04]
Frank Holland
So by the way, you're not the only person that thinks the growth is going to be better, especially in the second half of the year. We had Stephen Mey right here at post 9 on money movers just a few minutes ago. Why would play a soundbite from him and his outlook on the economy in the second half?
- [04:16]
Jason Snipe
I think that growth is going to be better in the second half of the year because I think that growth in the first half of the year which was weaker than we than we'd hoped it would be and as recent revisions to data indicated was even, even weaker than we thought. You know but I think that that was caused in part by headwinds to the economy from uncertainty around trade policy and tax policy.
- [04:36]
Frank Holland
All right. Again Stephen Myron on Money Movers a short time ago. Jason Snipe tossing over to you if he's right is that a great setup for stocks that are already at all time highs valuations admittedly a bit stretched but if we continue to see growth does that push us to even higher highs?
- [04:50]
Jason Snipe
I think so. Frank and Steph alluded to a lot of the points that I think are important to note. Yes, the labor market is softening a bit but when I look to earnings for 3Q double digit earnings growth potential, you know inflation is relatively tame. Yes we got to kind of race down to 2 but we're tame at 3.3% roughly. Retail sales were strong this week and credit spreads are really tight. So when you when we're focused on the consumer which I think that consumer is still continues to do well and capex like as you mentioned, you know I feel comfortable heading into a cutting cycle that we will continue to see the price action that we've, we've already seen so far this quarter and a lot of the talk coming into this month is all about seasonality and the weakness there. That hasn't been the case you mentioned.
- [05:39]
Frank Holland
Even Jay Powell said is a big reason for some of the economic growth that we've seen. But at the same time that's really people at the top end of the income level where we're talking about a company or an individual spending. At the same time we're seeing people the other 90%. Even Jay Powell said this is more than likely the case. He called it anecdotal but there's a lot of research about this. The top 10 income earners are doing more than 50% of the spending. Is that sustainable in a consumer driven economy?
- [06:03]
Jason Snipe
So I think so. I think it is and I think that's why this, this cut has been deemed a risk management cut. Right. And it was all about the commentary I think and listen there was no price movement post the commentary on on Wednesday. But post that's where we saw the price action yesterday moving to all time highs as you mentioned to start off the show. So for me yes I think this continue to be stimulative heading into the fourth quarter and I think this all systems go Frank.
- [06:28]
Stephanie Link
It's the consumer. It's always the low end that has the challenges with it. Inflation with costs rising with Labor. It's the 8020 rule though, right? 80% of our spending comes from the top earners and even in some of the middle earners as well. So you know, I obviously, you know, we want the low end to do well, but it is the high end that is absolutely, to your point, carrying this, but they have always carried the growth.
- [06:55]
Frank Holland
That's a fair point. But this is also, I guess a lot of people at the Air Revolution and again, even Jay Powell admits, and we're seeing in the markets a lot of spending is being done by very large company. Our Mackenzie Segala is just on private companies doing a lot of spending as well. How sustainable is it for just the top end to be the real driver of economic growth? Because just I think if you just walk around, you can see people on Main Street. I know it's a colloquialism for just the regular person, but businesses are shutting down, restaurants are slower. I mean you can see it when you go out.
- [07:23]
Stephanie Link
The AI revolution is impacting so many different industries. So there are going to always be winners and losers in any situation. And in this case it's not just in video or semiconductors or Broadcom. It's not just the Mag 7, it's the industrial companies that actually manufacture and help to build out these data centers and to upgrade the grid. And so that's a big sector that's also benefiting and about jobs and that's what's going to drive jobs. The utility companies, the IPs. There are so many sectors that are benefiting from a data center, power and grid and that is good for the labor market as a whole. In fact, some companies, you know, some of the industrial companies, they're having a hard time finding people. So that keeps like a lid on the weakening in wages in my mind.
- [08:13]
Frank Holland
Kevin Simpson, you're on halftime. Patience is not rewarded. I have a tough question for you. Where do you take money out of? What sectors do you think have kind of had their run? They may have run out of steam. And where do you put that money to work in? What other sector would you put that money to work in?
- [08:27]
Kevin Simpson
This is sort of a dodge of your question a little bit because if you super cycle the economy, if you lower rates, and it sounds like all three of us agree that it is a rate cutting cycle, not a one and done even regardless of the post game press or the other day you kind of channeled your inner Marty's why with the can't fight the Fed comment and it's so true. If you go back to the early 80s and you look at Volcker, if you go to the great financial crisis and you think about QE, if we just go back to 2020 during the pandemic, it's the Fed's move more so than anything else that moved the market historically in those events. If we go into a rate cutting cycle now and everything that Stephanie and Jason just laid out is factual and I think it is now you have a scenario which benefits all of the people in that 20% because lower rates will help the stock market for sure. It helps stimulus in so many different areas. To your question, I think that housing is the obvious answer, the obvious beneficiary of lower rates. But also the Home Depot is the Lowe's. And if you think of the financials and you head over there, just, just all of the refis that happen not just in residential but in commercial and multifamily home, it resonates and it flows throughout the whole economy now you could run into a stagflationary problem. You know, if inflation comes back too hot and growth is too slow, that that's problematic. So the Fed's got a tight line to walk on that tightrope. But I think the future looks pretty bright. And if I'm looking at the landscape right now, I would expect breath to this market more so than we've seen recently.
- [09:58]
Frank Holland
You mentioned housing. A lot of people are talking about the possible benefit to housing. It is important to note since the rate cut, housing rates have actually gone up. Mortgage rates have actually gone up. Tom Lee from Funds right out with a note today. He mentioned housing in part as a potential beneficiary of rate cut. He also hit on a few other things. The Fed's boosting monetary liquidity, which is good for asset prices. The Fed cuts likely boost CEO business confidence, to Stephanie's point, allowing the ism to move above 50. It's been below 50 for six straight months. That's technically likely contraction. And also the Fed's making cash less attractive, which is risk on. So Kevin, do you agree with all that? I'm going to come back to my first question. Not letting you dodge. If we're in a riskier environment, which is hard to believe already we've seen a push in a high beta. Stocks, speculative stocks and speculative areas. Where does the money go into? Where does it come out of?
- [10:40]
Kevin Simpson
I gave you alternative financing, I gave you financials, I gave you a home Depot and retail. I gave you the homebuilders, which we don't own at the moment. But I don't think it necessarily has to come out of the big banks markets. And I know you want me to say it's going to come out of the mega tech and it's possible that that trade slows down, but I think if anything it comes from the money on the sideline and never to the extent that we talk about like oh, there's $7 trillion in cash in money markets that's there for a reason. But some of that might come in because you will see money market yields come down, you will see bond yields come down. So I think that it's more of the rest of the market may be playing catch up a little bit than it coming then coming at the expense expense of another sector.
- [11:18]
Stephanie Link
You know what's interesting, the 30 year fixed mortgage in January 13th it was at 741. Today it's at 641. That's a big drop. That was before the Fed did their thing. And if you have lower rates on the short end, I think you're going to continue to see the 30 year fix come down. I think you need five and a half, something like a quarter.
- [11:37]
Frank Holland
I don't know why somebody said six is a magic number, but I think it's important to note it. Was it about 5, excuse me, 612, 613 before for the rate cut and then it's gone up, which is just a fascinating dynamic to me.
- [11:49]
Stephanie Link
I think there's so much pent up demand because we're so short. Houses in this country, there are pockets that are not short which actually will help home prices. The Southeast is flooded with homes. So that actually that area, the affordability might actually improve. You may not need rates to get to five and a quarter if home prices come down. But around the country as a whole, whole we are short 5 million homes. We've underproduced for 15 consecutive years. 5 million millennials want to buy a first time home. So all of these things are important. I don't think it's a demand problem at all. I think it really is all about rates and if you get it under 6, that's a big move from the 7.4 that they saw. Right?
- [12:27]
Frank Holland
All right, well you guys want to talk about, let's talk about tech. Overall tech sector hitting a record high Today as Apple's iPhone 17 lineup it officially goes on sale. Our Steve Kobach is covering the launch for us in Manhattan. Steve, we talked to you and I, we actually talked earlier this morning when people were lining up. What's the latest?
- [12:46]
Steve Kovach
Yeah, the latest is Apple Stock is up 2 1/2% right now. Frank. It's because of all these people behind me. There's still a line around the block for these new iPhone lineups. I've been talking to folks in line, seeing what model they're buying, and by almost everyone I spoke to, they're not going for that cool new thin air. They're actually going for the Pro, which is good news if you're an Apple investor. Those are the more expensive phones that grows that top line revenue growth for Apple the most when people gravitate towards those. And I'd also point to JP Morgan this morning, they actually raised their price target on Apple because of these early demand signals we're getting that show some strength compared to what we saw a year ago with the iPhone 16. And by the way, that could only just be the beginning of this iPhone growth spread. Frank. Because Nikkei reported earlier this week that Apple is expecting about to sell 10% more phones next year in part because of these models and also redesigns coming in the next lineup and the lineup beyond that. So it's still a lot of optimism here. Jim Cramer spoke to Tim Cook earlier today talking about all of this, and he told Kramer that he's also seeing a lot of enthusiasm and demand for these new iPhone lineups. Frank.
- [13:58]
Frank Holland
Yeah, absolutely. Steve Kovac live at the Apple store in Manhattan. Steve, I asked you earlier, can you get me those AirPods, the live translation? If you could just kind of work your way to the front, it'd be greatly appreciated.
- [14:07]
Steve Kovach
I'll bring them to the office on Monday. I'll bring them Monday.
- [14:11]
Frank Holland
Steve Kovac, seriously great reporting all day. Thank you very much for that. Kevin. I want to turn over to you as we talk about Apple again, up over two and a half percent right now. You're writing covered calls on Apple.
- [14:21]
Kevin Simpson
Yeah. First of all, it's great to see a line here in New York City last year. I remember it was like Steve and like three or four Apple hardcore fans. This is exciting. We, we love Apple. I think that this and probably for the next two launches are really a refresh. The, the good news on the Apple Pros and the margins there are impressive. The fact that the price increase has absolutely nothing to do with tariffs. Wink, wink is great. We looked at this and said, okay, the stock has really rallied into the release. The earnings report was fantastic. All I did was wrote a covered CROSS Call for two weeks, Frank. So we're looking at a $250 strike. Stocks around 244 right now still have some upside potential. Brought in about a dollar and a half. I love the name. I don't mind getting in and out of it. We trade it quite frequently. We only did this on half of the position. We'll talk a lot during the show about things that we've done with covered calls, specifically during the end of September, early October. We're run a little bit of a vacuum from an earnings perspective and some of the big news economically is put behind us. I'm just trying to clip some coupons with covered call writing in a very short period of time on names that we really like.
- [15:24]
Frank Holland
Did you see Kramer's interview with Tim Cook? I'm going to summarize very quickly. If you didn't see it for anybody that didn't see it, one of the things that really stuck out to me is that Tim Cook said the live translations, there's aisle on the phone. We just don't call it that. The fact that Tim Cook's out there talking about on the phone when that seemed to be one of the big headwinds in the stock, does that change your view on the stock and your strategy around it?
- [15:43]
Kevin Simpson
No, it doesn't. Because I'm not convinced that we're really going to see AI on the phone. We were told that last year also. And I say that as a person who's going to buy a phone today. I'm just waiting to see if I get the air or the 17. I really want to kind of test them out, but I do think that the AI will be delivered by Tim Cook, by Apple in a huge way. They control the ecosystem. We'll talk about some of the other competitors lately, excuse me, later in the show. I use other products as well, but I'm embedded in this ecosystem and this is where I feel I'll be most dependent to interact with AI in the future.
- [16:13]
Frank Holland
Jason, you also own Apple. I mean, I think actually, Kevin, you made a great point. I remember Steve was out there last year. There was nobody out there. Certainly nobody lined up. And if you look on social media, there's people lined up in China. You heard a lot of people who are using domestic mobile carriers in China deciding to switch over to Apple because they're excited about this new phone. We another reporter, Arjun Kapal, live in London. There were lines out there as well. What's your view on this stock? It seems to have gotten out of these doldrums of not having a quote unquote breakthrough. And it seems like we're in a different phase.
- [16:41]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, no, there's no doubt. And think Kev made some great points just on the earnings from last quarter. I mean Earnings were up 12%, revenue was up 10%. This is Apple by the way.
- [16:51]
Frank Holland
Right.
- [16:51]
Jason Snipe
You know, their earnings story is not in the earnings growth is not really what we focus on over. Over the last several years. But this is. These are phenomenal numbers that we just saw. And I think for me as it relates to hardware, they are still a hard hardware company. There hasn't been a meaningful change in the Apple iPhone for at least a decade. Right.
- [17:11]
Frank Holland
So I think this is a meaningful change.
- [17:13]
Jason Snipe
Is this, this air phone and then talking about 2026 and being at the end of 2026 being the foldable phone coming online. I think it's getting people excited about the future. Right. So for me, I like this call and services were strong too. Services was up over 13%. So I continue to like Apple. The price actions has been phenomenal over the last three months. It's up 22%. You know, it's barely negative for the year. A couple of weeks ago is down over 10%. Right. So I think there's some movement behind the stock and I think it will kind of plow us through into the fourth quarter.
- [17:47]
Frank Holland
Link, you don't own Apple. Are you feeling some FOMO today? I mean the stock's up 2 1/2 percent. A lot of excitement about this new product. As Snipe aptly pointed out, it is a hardware company and whether there's changes, not changes, people are excited about this hardware.
- [18:00]
Stephanie Link
I'm not excited about it. I don't think that the stock or the hardware, both. I just don't think 31 times forward estimates for 10% growth is that compelling in a technology world. And so to me, I don't think the 16 is going to be a super. The super cycle sure could be. It could be strong. That's what's happening here. Last couple of weeks numbers are coming up because people expect iPhone sales to be up about 10%. Okay, that's great. But I think it's the 17 that actually will be stronger than expected because you will have Siri AI more in.
- [18:32]
Frank Holland
The phone that this is the 17.
- [18:34]
Stephanie Link
Well, no, sorry, the 18. Okay, yeah, sorry about that. So the 18, I think that one might be better only because you will will have full appreciation in terms of AI. But I just think that there's other ways to play it. Look, I mean Broadcom, about 30% of their revenues is tied to Apple. Apple, right. So they help make the insides as well. So there's other ways of playing the Apple story. I just don't think the Apple itself is that compelling.
- [18:58]
Frank Holland
While we over to the semiconductor space, you're mentioning chips right now, Kevin, you made a move in the semiconductor space within video. Nvidia also making announcement of an acquisition. $900 million to hire the CEO of en Fabrica. Just give us your play. And why, why right now with Nvidia?
- [19:15]
Kevin Simpson
I guess they outbid Metta on the CEO. I don't know. It seemed like outside of Nvidia's wheelhouse to go ahead and pay for something like that. But if you think about what they did with Intel, I think that's a much bigger news story for the week. We wrote the covered call on that little jump thinking that again, just really, really short term, this is a one week call that expires next Friday. Again kind of clipping coupons here. But I think it's excellent news for intel whether or not that stock's going to move substantially from here in the short term. You know, it's anybody's guess but if you tie your, your boat to Nvidia, I think it's fantastic. And we've seen that if we can bring this inshore, if Nvidia can help them, could be a really neat story for both stocks. But it was just a few short weeks ago that we were talking about how AMD was going to eat Nvidia's lunch and how, how the story has changed.
- [20:04]
Steve Kovach
Huh.
- [20:04]
Frank Holland
So you wrote this covered call after they invested the $5 billion in Intel. That was also after we got that report that they were facing accusations of violating China's anti monopoly law and that the Chinese government didn't want any Chinese companies to buy the chips. So talk to me about the overall strategy. It seems like this company, it has, it's known to have some volatility, but it also has at least some headline risk here.
- [20:26]
Kevin Simpson
I don't think we've put that much emphasis on their China relationship at all for the past six months. And I do think that to some degree that might just be posturing. You know, I can't say for certain. I'm not part of the, you know, the political sphere, but I think that that might be some jockeying and positioning having to do with TikTok. We wrote a 182 and a half call. So this expires next Friday. It's close to the money we did it on half of the position. Again you had a good news event, you had a bad news event potentially with China. I just think that long term you want to be an investor in Nvidia and the ability to write calls against it to generate some premium is how we play it.
- [21:03]
Frank Holland
So we're looking at a six month chart of Nvidia right now it's up just about 50%. I think this is possibly one of the stocks we can talk about. Jason, you own it. Has it had its run? We were like Link just said we were talking about AMD possibly eating its lunch just what a week ago, two weeks ago. It wasn't that long ago. Big run up in this company, valuations reasonable compared to some other players in the space, but a huge run up. Is this maybe a place to take some pretty profits on an Nvidia or do you keep riding this train?
- [21:29]
Jason Snipe
No, I think possibly, you know if you've been a long term investor I think you're, you should. It is prudent to take something off, off the table when you see the run that we've seen especially over the last six months. But for me as it relates to just, just the long term tailwinds, I mean foundationally this stock, I mean sits in the, in the bed of innovation and AI development. There's no doubt about that. I think to Kev's point on their, their investment in intel, you know, $5 billion investment, I think that's going to help the PC market. That's great. But you know the one thing that I know wasn't part of the deal is the foundry business, you know was still going to be can still be directed towards to Taiwan semi. So we'll see what happens with. I know intel ran a lot yesterday as a result of that but for me, you know bellwether all continues to lead back to Nvidia in terms of innovation, AI build out and infrastructure. So I continue to like this name and I think again if you've been a long term investor it'd be prudent to maybe take a little bit off the top.
- [22:26]
Frank Holland
Speaking of chips, the SMH etf, very popular way to play the chip space coming off its best day since mid May. Positive in 10 out of 11 days. Steph, you own a major component, Broadcom, you were just talking about it in its relation to Apple. So if you're not excited about the hardware at least are you excited about this company and the revenue it could generate in the cycle?
- [22:44]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, because 42% of their revenues is software software and 31% is. I just grew 30, 63% year over year. They beat across the board, free cash flow grew 46%. They have one of the best CEOs in the business that isn't nearly as appreciated as he should be. But he just signed a contract between now and 2030 to stay at the company and they signed their fourth customer, ASIC chip company. And I think that that that's a lot of momentum for them and that's why the stock took off after the quarter. They're probably going to announce another customer next year. That all being said, I would not be buying it right here. It's at 41 times forward estimates when I owned it. I bought it a couple of years ago. It's trading at 14 times. So it's a little rich at this moment in time.
- [23:33]
Frank Holland
All right, we're going to switch gears a bit looking at financials. Financials being a new all time high today. We got some ownership here on the desk and stuff. You made a trade.
- [23:40]
Stephanie Link
Yeah.
- [23:40]
Frank Holland
You sold some Truist, you bought some Capital one. By the way, Capital One also getting an upgrade today from UBS price target to 70. Also called the top large cap bank pick. They have a whole thesis here. But I want to get to your reasoning why you bought it.
- [23:54]
Stephanie Link
Yeah. So Truist is just taking profits and it's still a great company. So very, very cheap. And if the Fed is going to cut, they're going to benefit from net interest income. So I don't hate it, but I thought I really like Capital One in the story because they just closed the Discover Financial transaction and so now they are actually just transforming the company. And I think one plus one equals three. They're going to seize 2.5 billion in synergies and I think there's potential for $26 a share in earnings power. So this is really a totally changed story for Capital One. And the stock trades at 14 times earnings. So I think it's. There's more risk, there's more the better risk reward here than Truist. And I also like the consumer. We started off talking about the consumer. Right. So this is a play on that too.
- [24:39]
Frank Holland
All right, speaking of all time highs, a lot of all time highs today let all JP Morgan also in an all time high. Kevin, you are a covered call when it comes to JP Morgan. Give us the trade, the motivation.
- [24:49]
Kevin Simpson
We like all these stocks going up at the desk. It's a good television show. JP Morgan is a stalwart holding. We've owned it for 14 years. We love the name. This is just again, a way to look at markets here and a little bit of a lull period cover call 101. This is a three week option. We sold a 335 call, so we still have $20 plus of upside capture over the next three weeks. And we brought in a $40. Doesn't sound like much like a $40. I don't think you buy a cup of coffee here in New York. But if you were to annualize that out and continue to do it, it annualizes at a 6% option premium. You put that above the dividend, you take the total return of the JP Morgan. This is just part of our strategy that we're implementing over the next few week period here. Heard a few trades earlier. You'll probably hear a few more. Love JP Morgan and love writing calls against it when you can.
- [25:38]
Frank Holland
All right, a lot of financials ownership here on the desk. Jason, you actually own Goldman Sachs as well. What's just your view on Goldman Sachs in the broader financial space?
- [25:46]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, no, so I mean, Goldman Sachs has been a stalwart, obviously a great return this year, up 40% year to date. You know, I think about obviously the IB movement, M and A, obviously all of that coming back online. I feel like we've been down here a lot and the bell's been ringing, which is a good thing. Meaning stocks are ipoing. They got out of the consumer business, which is a strategic play. Obviously that was unprofitable. So I think they've made a lot of moves and I think the setup for this, this arena is very positive going forward.
- [26:14]
Frank Holland
Goldman shares up about a quarter of 1% right now. All right, coming up next on Halftime, we got more committee moves. Kevin is ready with two more trades, plus Stephanie has a new buy. Stay with us for all those names. Halftime's coming back in just two minutes.
- [26:30]
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- [27:30]
Frank Holland
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- [27:38]
Kevin Simpson
You've got AT and T5G so you're.
- [27:40]
Frank Holland
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- [28:42]
Frank Holland
Welcome back to Halftime. We got some more committee moves to get to. Stephanie, coming over to you. You bought some Coinbase?
- [28:46]
Stephanie Link
I did buy some Coinbase. I want crypto exposure for diversification. These are, this is a leading exchange. I don't really know what's going to happen with Bitcoin, the actual price. But I do know I have a buyer and a seller and an exchange that can make a lot of money. And they have 100 million users. They're, you know, they're just one of the leading companies on this theme. And so it's a small position, Frank, for now, it's a very volatile position. But I do think if, if you believe the way I do in terms of risk on between now and the end of the year, this one is going to work.
- [29:16]
Frank Holland
Does risk on definitely benefit crypto? Because it seems like this stock is pretty correlated to the cryptocurrency market, specifically Bitcoin.
- [29:23]
Stephanie Link
Well, the stock was up 9% yesterday after the Fed cut rates the day before. So I would say it's risk on all Right.
- [29:29]
Frank Holland
Risk on it is. Kevin, want to come over to you. You wrote a covered call on T Mobile. Now this is interesting, especially on the day of the iPhone 17 release.
- [29:37]
Kevin Simpson
Who's paying for the iPhone 17? It's your carrier. So maybe there's a little bit of a stall here. We also saw Softbank liquidate a large portion of their allocation. Not because I think it was a testament against T mobile. I still think that they continue to take the lead in 5G and it's a great, great company. But it's down 6.4% on the month. We wrote a take call on it generating some income. We'll talk about another covered call trade in a minute. I know it sounds like a broken record, but remember, each time we're doing this, we're bringing money in the door. We collect dividends in our portfolio and we write options. And I'll do it all day long.
- [30:12]
Frank Holland
All right, well, let's get to it. You let us there. You wrote a covered call on Eli Lilly. Why now on Lilly?
- [30:18]
Kevin Simpson
So it's an $800 strike. So we've got some good upside on it. Eli Lilly is absolutely the best of breed when it comes to pharmaceuticals. They have a pipeline. It's just not a one trick pony. And when you think about what the oral pill will do in GLP1, I think the stock has continued room to run, but it stalled this year. It had a massive run before then. So again, if we go through this period of just a little bit of a tempered market, we're going to take advantage of it. Brought a really good premium on it. It was $6.50. That annualizes out to 20% per year. I know we're not doing it every two week period, but it just illustrates and articulates what these little $5, $6, $1 trades do when you keep putting those, those, those coins in the cookie jar over time.
- [31:01]
Frank Holland
Yeah, a lot of big upside moves for health care. While the sector itself is negative for the year, ABBVIE hit a record high today. Look at Elanco, up over 50% year to date. Syncora up just about 30% year to date. Steph, why isn't this the trade people are piling into at least as a catch up tree? I think a lot of people see small caps as a catch up. Doesn't health care eventually have to catch up? If the economy strong, the consumer spending in your mind, we're going to see more growth in the economy beyond just AI manufacturing. I mean, doesn't that just give a boost to Health care just as a.
- [31:31]
Stephanie Link
Byproduct, I mean, I think so. I think you want to be specific though on where you're investing in health care. I don't really want to be in the pharmaceutical companies because you've got the headache from Washington. But I think I've talked about animal health, for example, for many years. And finally, Elon Go you mentioned is up 57% year to date. I really have been a laggard for the last several years, but I like animal health because I have three pets, Frank, and I spend more on my pets than my 18 year old and. Right. So it's a $60 billion market. It's going to be about 170 billion by the end of the decade. We're going to continue to spend. It's about a 10% CAGR. I'll take that. Elanco has been a turnaround so story. It's probably one that I'm going to trim because it's had such a nice run, set a big rerating. But I recently bought GE Health Care. That stock is down 21%. You know, I love spin outs and it's a spin out from GE and they actually beat on earnings and they guided higher on margins and free cash flow and they make it out of the China business, which I think would be great because it's been a big problem for them. And of course you also know that I own United Health Care, which, which has not been a great stock, but I do think it is a great 2026 story that you have new leadership, new CEO, new CFO. They're the number one leader in the industry. And the stock is trading like 12 times EBITDA, which it's rarely trades at 12 times EBITDA.
- [32:49]
Frank Holland
To your point, my cocker spaniel cost me a lot of money. But the other side of the coin, Zoet is actually down double digits year to date. We're talking about animal spending. I want to talk more broadly about health care. Jason Snipe, you didn't mention it when I said where to put money to work. You didn't bring that sector up at all. All again, the sector negative year.
- [33:03]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, yeah. And I think to Steph's point, I think, I think you have to be careful and selective and the names that you pick. You know, one of my favorite names in big Pharma, which I know could be in the eye of the storm is AbbVie. Right. So AbbVie has got a tremendous pipeline. Skyrizi is up 62%. Rinvoak is up 41%. The concern was around Humira when there's biosimilars in the patent cliff. But this stock continues to produce just up 25% year to date. To your point, it just hit an all time high. So it's names like that, great pipelines. I think from the macro perspective, as rates come and come in, you know, R and D expenses are potentially a little bit lower. And I think some of these names work.
- [33:41]
Frank Holland
Speaking of you also on the ibb, the biotech etf, is that a place that you want to put money in? Also with the thought that it might be a catch up trace, specifically with the rate cuts. And while Stephanie's worried about some regulation. D.C. when it comes to the pharma companies, biotech supposed to be a beneficiary with looser regulation.
- [33:55]
Jason Snipe
No, absolutely. And I think part of biotech, it's been a laggard obviously for some time and not just this year, year prior as well. But I think again as it relates to the macro, I think some of some of the policy decisions could be a lift to that sector for sure.
- [34:09]
Frank Holland
IBB pulling back right now, down about a third of a percent year to date, only up about 8%. So certainly a laggard. And with that, we want to get to the headlines with our Julia Boorstin. Julia, Good afternoon.
- [34:21]
Stephanie Link
Frank. A federal judge struck the president's $15.
- [34:24]
Commercial/Advertisement Voice
Billion lawsuit against the New York Times.
- [34:26]
Stephanie Link
For defamation just moments ago. The judge ruled President Trump violated a procedural rule in his filing that requires a short statement on why he deserves relief. Instead, it was 85 pages long. The judge said the complaint is not, quote, a protected platform to rage against.
- [34:43]
Commercial/Advertisement Voice
An adversary and gave the President 28 days to fix it, ordering it to.
- [34:47]
Stephanie Link
Be no longer than 40 pages. Russian and Belarusian athletes will be able.
- [34:52]
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To compete as neutral independent athletes at the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Games. The International Olympic Committee said today that it will keep the same sanctions that were enforced at the Paris Summer Games. That means these athletes who qualify will be vetted for any links to the.
- [35:08]
Stephanie Link
Russian military or support of the war in Ukraine. And representatives Don Bacon and Ro Khanna are teaming up to bring forward a bill to exclude coffee from President Trump's tariffs.
- [35:20]
Commercial/Advertisement Voice
The Washington Post reporting their bipartisan bill.
- [35:22]
Stephanie Link
Could be introduced today. Back over to you, Frank.
- [35:26]
Frank Holland
I think it's going to make a lot of people happy, especially if they get up early in the morning like you do and I do. Julia. Julia Boorstin with their midday get our coffee. Julia, thank you very much. All right, coming up next, Mike Santoli joins us with his MIDDAY word. We're back right after this.
- [35:44]
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- [36:07]
Frank Holland
Hey, I never felt this way before.
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Frank Holland
And I owe it all to you.
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- [36:44]
Frank Holland
And we're back on halftime, senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Mike, just looking right now looks like we're on pace for record highs for the major indices, but we're seeing small caps pull back a bit, just about a half a percent. What does that say about today's market?
- [36:57]
Mike Santoli
Mostly says they've run a lot. There's a little bit of fatigue. We did break through the old highs from, you know, four years ago, almost most on the small caps. And I think in general, the market is kind of stepping back and assessing a job well done to get to all these records. There's just enough upward drift in some of the big favorites. Obviously, you got a little push in Apple to the upside to keep the S and P and the NASDAQ working. And the rest of it is, you know, let's watch and see if the bond market kind of breaks any key levels or if it's really just kind of also consolidating here. People are pretty happy with the mix of policy and how it's interacting with an economy that not only seems to be hanging in there, but there's enough of a sense out there among some people that we may reaccelerate. We're going to run it hot next year. Fed all possible that it feels as if the equity market feels pretty cushioned. So we'll see if, if there's any surprises next week because we've used up a lot of the bullish catalysts. And so it's, it's almost like more of the same as the bull case.
- [37:56]
Frank Holland
You know, speaking of bonds, and I know you've been talking about this all day, we saw the 10 year get down to 3.99. It's moved up about 14, 15 basis points since then. How should investors view that upside move.
- [38:06]
Mike Santoli
When it comes to Bonds mostly noise. And that the inability to break much below 4% on this move tells you that it's not some kind of disinflationary bust that the bond market's trying to price in. So I think it's, it's coming from such a kind of low unthreatening levels that it's not yet really telling you oh no, we're going to have a sustained inflation problem or something like that. So until it breaks much higher, I do think the stock market can probably tolerate this.
- [38:34]
Frank Holland
All right, Mike Sentinel with his midday word. Mike, we're going to see you coming up on the exchange at 1pm all right. Coming up next year on halftime, more committee stocks on the move. Tesla shares, they are popping on an upgrade, just adding to the gains for this week. Kevin owns this name. We're going to debate it coming up on Halftime right after this. And welcome back to halftime. Let's get to some of our calls of the day. We got Baird upgrading Tesla to outperform. Also very important note raising the price target from 320 which is well below where the stock's trading up to 548, more than 20% upside. They go on to say they see several events ahead which could move the stock, including the next generation of the Optimus Reveal announcing additional bots entering new markets for Robotaxi, the pay package, etc. Etc. Kevin, you own this one?
- [39:29]
Kevin Simpson
I do and I think the price target is a little bit generous. You wonder if they had a 320 on it. You know where they've been in terms of paying attention to Tesla. But obviously it's not a car story. The, the note very well describes where the future is and it's in autonomous driving, free self driving robotaxis. You've got Tesla, Waymo, even Zoox. They're changing the way we think about mobility, reshaping it. And I love the fact that they were talking about Optimus and the robot as well because what we think of Tesla today and what it actually turns out to be 10, 15, 20 years into the future is, is really cool to think about.
- [40:04]
Frank Holland
Tesla shares up about one and a half percent now. We're, we also have a commodity call. It's actually Gold Citi, very bullish on gold's record run. Kevin, you own Agneco Eagle Mines. We hit a new all time high today by the way, the price target on Gold from cities 3800. We saw Jeff Gundlach say it could go to 4000. Deutsche bank also this week saying go to 4000. What do you think? Is there more room to run when it comes to gold?
- [40:25]
Kevin Simpson
Yeah. Why can't it go to 4,000? I mean, it's gone to 3,800. It's just taken a really long time. We look back and we say this is the best year we've had since 1979. Gold is up 40% cent on the year and I was trying to remember back to 1979. Of course, Jason, you weren't alive, but inflation was running at like 13% back then. Now it's less than 3. So where that similarity stops and starts, I'm not exactly sure. Nikko Eagle is an amazing stock. It's up over 100% year to date. I think it can continue. Pays only about a 1% dividend. But Frank, for the past five years they've been increasing that dividend on an average of 25% per year. Profitable business, really neat space and I like the name a lot.
- [41:04]
Frank Holland
So, like, you own Free Point Macaron as well?
- [41:07]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, they only get about 20% exposure to gold. It's really a copper play. I do like the supply demand characteristics for copper things. Very tight market and the stock really hasn't done much in past year. It's flat year to date, is up about 18%. On the copper side of things, they actually increased their guidance for sales by 10% last quarter and the stock actually went down, down. So to me, at eight times ebitda, it's attractive, but it's not necessarily a goal play.
- [41:31]
Frank Holland
Also going to crowdstrike on pace for its best week since all the way back in early April. Big price target increase from Goldman from 492 to 535. Link you on this one as well.
- [41:42]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, they increased their net new annualized recurring revenues. That's what the thing trades on. That's what the whole industry trades on. They increased it to 20% by fiscal 27 and that was a big surprise. The expectations were for about 11% and they cited better customer penetration, vendor consolidation, and that could be 100 times an opportunity for them. This is in CrowdStrike specific in my mind. I think Palo Alto is the cheaper way to play it, but you definitely want to have exposure to cybersecurity. I've said this to you, I've said this a lot. I is going. Excuse me. Cyber is going to be bigger than AI because of AI is not secure.
- [42:20]
Frank Holland
All right, Speaking of Palo Alto, Jason, you own Palo.
- [42:22]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, listen, I mean, it hasn't obviously performed as well as crowdstrike this year. It's only up 13%. CrowdStrike, I think it's up over 40. But for me, I really like this cyber art deal. It's a $25 billion deal. It's a little bit of a pivot from their traditional business working in identity security. But I think it's, I think it was very strategic. Earnings growth was up 26%. Revenue growth up 16. So I think this, and again, we were talking about their platform strategy. New platform strategy I think is starting to really work now. So I continue to like the stock to Steph's point. It's a cheaper way to play it. And I think just cyber continues to grow.
- [42:58]
Frank Holland
One other note, the CIB Cybersecurity etf, it actually hit a record high yesterday. So a lot of bullishness when it comes to cybersecurity. All right, coming up next year on Halftime, record setting stocks. We're going to review some of the committee names that are hitting record highs. More halftime coming up right after this. And welcome back to halftime. Let's hit some committee stocks at new all time highs. GE Aerospace hitting a record today. Link, you own this one and doing really well.
- [43:35]
Stephanie Link
They're just humming. And I think the big story for GE is free cash flow. Can they get to 8 to 9 billion by 2028 in free cash flow? I think there's actually upside to it and that's what the story is, getting people getting excited about.
- [43:47]
Frank Holland
That American Express also hitting a record. Jason and Kevin, you both own it. Jason, you have first your view on the company hitting a new record. We were talking about consumer spending just a bit ago.
- [43:56]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, listen, ASP is up 15%. Network volumes are up 7%. I think they continue to expect strong spending patterns going forward. 8 to 10% revenue growth was reiterated in the guide. I continue to like this stock, Kevin.
- [44:10]
Kevin Simpson
The only thing I would add, Jason, spot on, is that they increased the platinum card fee by $200 a year yesterday. That's a big jump. And I doubt that any person is going to even consider shopping around for an alternative card. So I love the stock.
- [44:24]
Frank Holland
All right, American Express up just over a half a percent right now. All right, we got the earnings set up coming up next on Halftime. Stay with us. And welcome back to halftime. Let's get this set up on some key names reporting next week. First up is AutoZone reporting Tuesday before the bench. Jason, you own this one?
- [44:54]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, Frank. Quietly, this Stock is up 29% year to date. Strong demand for auto parts. You know, I think they continue to successfully build a commercial business Strong supply chains, durability of earnings. I'll be looking in this report for strong gross margins. Let's see how that growth continues to lift the stock going forward.
- [45:14]
Frank Holland
Also, it's got a price target upgrade from Roth, taking it from 4,135 up to 4,800. It's a lot of optimism about this name, even though it's pulling back about a third of 1% right now. One more. Your name's Jason Costco, also reporting Thursday after the Bell.
- [45:27]
Jason Snipe
Yeah, so Costco is another great story. I mean, the price action is not what it has been over the last few years. Only up 4% so far this year. But I love the monthly reports that we get from Costco. Sales were up almost 9% this month. Look for the product mix growth. Look how they continue to manage tariffs going forward. I think that's a big story in retail, period. But I think Costco is one of the, one of the bellwethers.
- [45:49]
Frank Holland
In the space link, we're talking a lot about the consumer economic strength. What's your thoughts on Costco?
- [45:54]
Stephanie Link
I love Costco, but it trades at 53 times estimate. That's true, but you know, they're a juggernaut. Month in month out there, like 6 to 7%. Same store sales in this kind of environment is so incredibly impressive. So if it ever were to pull back like 15, 20%, I would, I would buy it. But it's not. It trades like a staple.
- [46:13]
Frank Holland
All right, Costco up, just fractioning right now, as you point out, trading about 50 times forward earnings. Something to think about. All right, stay with us. Final trades are coming up on Halftime. You don't want to miss those. We'll be right back. Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app.
- [46:33]
Kevin Simpson
Follow the Halftime podcast now.
- [46:40]
Frank Holland
And welcome back to Halftime. We are back with final trades. Kevin, you're up first.
- [46:44]
Kevin Simpson
American Express. Jason covered all the fundamental reasons to like this name. We think that the millennials and the Gen Zs are in this ecosystem. Stocks that make new highs can go higher.
- [46:54]
Jason Snipe
Jason, Blackstone Capital Markets activity will pick up. I like this name here.
- [46:59]
Frank Holland
All right, Stephen, you got the last one. A name after earnings, you're making a buy.
- [47:04]
Stephanie Link
Yes. Week today, Lennar. The quarter was crummy. We expect it to be crummy. But I think we're in the trough. And it trades at 14 times earnings, 1.4 times book value.
- [47:12]
Frank Holland
All right, that is going to do it for halftime. Thank you so much for watching you have a great weekend. The exchange starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:31]
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All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.