CNBC Halftime Report – "Your All-Time Highs Playbook"
Date: September 19, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Guests/Investment Committee: Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, Kevin Simpson
Episode Overview
With the major stock indices hitting fresh record highs and the market awash in optimism following recent Fed moves, CNBC’s Halftime Report lays out a practical "playbook" for navigating all-time highs. Frank Holland leads a lively debate among top investors—including Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, and Kevin Simpson—on portfolios, risks, sector rotations, and actionable trades. The episode also highlights high-impact events like the launch of Apple’s iPhone 17, record moves in housing, chips, financials, and the continued AI revolution, giving listeners timely context for making investment decisions in a market at the top.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Market at All-Time Highs: What Next?
[01:02 – 03:13]
- Current Context: Quadruple all-time highs for major indices; small caps slightly lagging.
- Stephanie Link: Despite expectations, September volatility hasn't materialized. "I think you want to be buying into it. The economy is really strong... you're getting a Fed that's cutting into a strong economy led by the consumer." (02:01)
- Macro Setup:
- Labor market cooling, not collapsing
- Strong consumer spending, wage growth (~5%)
- Manufacturing renaissance, robust capex, data center/grid buildouts
- Fed and global central banks likely to continue rate cuts ("don't fight the Fed")
“The only reason I care is because it’s good for earnings. And I think earnings are going to be running about double digits.” — Stephanie Link (02:59)
2. The Catalysts for Record Highs
[03:13 – 04:35]
- Frank Holland: Questions if the market is rising mainly on expectations of more rate cuts.
- Link: Confident in more cuts due to a cooling labor market, manageable inflation.
- Growth running at 2.5–3.3% (Atlanta Fed Tracker) is “very healthy, and if that leads to a little more inflation, I’m okay with it from an earnings point of view.”
- Companies surpassing earnings expectations.
3. Who Is Driving the Economy—And Is It Sustainable?
[04:35 – 07:22]
- Jason Snipe: Earnings growth and tight credit spreads point to continued market strength. Seasonality concerns overstated.
- Holland: Raises potential imbalance—top 10% of earners now account for over 50% of consumer spending. “Is that sustainable in a consumer-driven economy?” (05:39)
- Snipe & Link: Acknowledge the ‘80/20 rule’—top earners have long driven growth. The shift is notable, but not a breaking point yet.
“It’s always the low end that has challenges... But it is the high end that is absolutely, to your point, carrying this, but they have always carried the growth.” — Stephanie Link (06:28)
- AI Revolution: Creates both winners and losers, but boosts sectors beyond just ‘Mag 7’ tech—industrial, utility, and manufacturing benefit from data center and grid expansion.
4. Sector Moves: Where to Rotate?
[08:12 – 11:17]
- Kevin Simpson:
- “The Fed’s move more so than anything else has moved the market historically in those events.” (08:26)
- Rate cuts likely benefit housing/housing adjacents (Home Depot, Lowe’s), financials, multifamily, and commercial real estate.
- If inflation returns, the Fed faces a tightrope: “The future looks pretty bright. I would expect breadth to this market more so than we’ve seen recently.”
- Money Flows:
- Simpson argues the rotation may not come out of mega tech, but from cash/money market yields becoming less attractive, thus fueling broader market participation.
“It’s more the rest of the market playing catch up a little bit than coming at the expense of another sector.” — Kevin Simpson (10:40)
- Housing:
- Mortgage rates have fallen from earlier highs, but demand remains pent-up due to housing shortages.
- Link: “We’re short 5 million homes. We’ve underproduced for 15 years. 5 million millennials want to buy... I don’t think it’s a demand problem.” (11:49)
5. Tech Talk: Apple’s iPhone 17 & Semis
[12:27 – 18:57]
-
Apple Hype & Fundamentals:
- Steve Kovach reports strong demand on launch day, with most customers opting for high-margin Pro models. JP Morgan raises target; Apple expects to sell 10% more iPhones next year.
- Kevin Simpson: Running covered call strategy ("trying to clip some coupons") to generate short-term income on Apple.
- Jason Snipe: Praises Apple’s earnings and services growth; meaningful hardware cycles could re-energize the stock, especially with AI/foldables ahead.
- Stephanie Link: Not a buyer—valuation (31x for 10% growth) unappealing. "I just don't think the Apple itself is that compelling." (17:59) Prefers indirect plays like Broadcom.
-
Semiconductor Space:
- Nvidia’s major run (+50% in 6 months):
- Kevin Simpson plays short-term premiums via covered calls, sees China risks as “mostly posturing.”
- Jason Snipe: "If you've been a long-term investor, it would be prudent to maybe take a little off the top." Still bullish for “bed of innovation and AI development.” (21:28)
- Broadcom (BU):
- Link loves management and fundamentals but calls valuation “a little rich at this moment.” (22:44)
- Nvidia’s major run (+50% in 6 months):
6. Financials in Focus
[23:33 – 25:38]
- Recent Moves:
- Link: Rotating out of Truist into Capital One, citing transformative Discover acquisition, synergy potential, and attractive risk/reward.
- Simpson: Writing covered calls on JP Morgan for steady income (6% annualized), on top of long-horizon holding.
- Snipe: Goldman Sachs thriving on M&A rebound and improved strategic focus after exiting consumer banking.
7. Committee Trades & New Names
[28:41 – 33:55]
- Coinbase (Link): Adds for crypto diversification; believes a risk-on environment will benefit COIN. “This is a leading exchange… small position for now, but I do think if you believe in risk on… this one is going to work.” (28:46)
- Covered Calls (Simpson):
- T-Mobile: “Down 6.4%… we wrote a call on it generating some income.” (29:37)
- Eli Lilly: “Absolutely the best of breed when it comes to pharmaceuticals… brought a really good premium… that annualizes out to 20% per year.” (30:17)
- Healthcare Sector:
- Link: Likes animal health (Elanco) and recent buy GE Healthcare for its turnaround and margin guidance, cautious on large pharmas due to regulatory risk.
- Snipe: Favors selective big pharma like AbbVie (pipeline strength), sees biotech as potential catch-up trade with benefit from policy shifts and falling rates.
8. Midday Market Take – With Mike Santoli
[36:43 – 38:33]
- Santoli: Small caps are taking a breather after a large run; overall market buoyed by major tech. Bond yields stable, so no warning signs for equities yet. “People are pretty happy with the mix of policy and how it’s interacting with the economy… the equity market feels pretty cushioned.” (36:57)
9. Notable Analyst Calls & Stock News
[38:33 – 44:09]
- Tesla: Upgraded by Baird to outperform, high hopes for autonomy, robotics, and the evolving business model.
- Simpson: “It’s not a car story… what we think of Tesla today and what it actually turns out to be… is really cool to think about.” (39:29)
- Gold: Citi and others boost price targets to near $4000.
- Simpson: “Why can’t it go to 4000?... It’s just taken a really long time.” (40:25)
- Link: Copper is the real story at Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), not gold.
- Cybersecurity:
- CrowdStrike and Palo Alto (Link & Snipe): Both bullish on cybersecurity growth, platform expansion; view regulation as a tailwind.
10. Committee Stocks at Record Highs
[43:35 – 44:23]
- Highlighted Names Hitting All-Time Highs:
- GE Aerospace (Link): Focus on free cash flow growth.
- American Express (Snipe, Simpson): Strong network volumes, platinum card fee hikes, trusted brand.
11. Earnings Preview: Upcoming Names to Watch
[44:53 – 46:12]
- AutoZone (Snipe): +29% YTD. “Strong demand for auto parts… durability of earnings.”
- Costco (Snipe, Link): Awaiting growth metrics; market leader but expensive at 53x forward.
- Link: “If it ever were to pull back 15–20%, I would buy it. But it trades like a staple.” (45:54)
12. Final Trades
[46:39 – End]
- Kevin Simpson: American Express – "Stocks that make new highs can go higher."
- Jason Snipe: Blackstone – Expects capital markets activity to pick up.
- Stephanie Link: Lennar – Buying post-earnings pullback as housing may have bottomed.
Notable Quotes
- “Don’t fight the Fed and don’t fight the global central bankers too. And they’re cutting as well.” — Stephanie Link (02:45)
- “This is sort of a dodge of your question… but if you supercycle the economy, if you lower rates… it’s the Fed’s move more so than anything else that moved the market historically.” — Kevin Simpson (08:26)
- “The AI revolution is impacting so many different industries… it’s the industrial companies that actually manufacture and help to build out these data centers and to upgrade the grid.” — Stephanie Link (07:22)
- “If anything, it comes from the money on the sidelines… because you will see money market yields come down, you will see bond yields come down.” — Kevin Simpson (10:40)
- “If you’ve been a long-term investor, it would be prudent to maybe take a little off the top [on Nvidia].” — Jason Snipe (21:28)
Timestamps and Key Segments
- 01:02 – Market at record highs: positioning for year-end
- 02:01 – Stephanie Link: macro outlook, strength of consumer
- 03:13 – Discussion: rate cuts and market drivers
- 04:35 – Jason Snipe on sustaining highs, consumer strength
- 06:28 – Stephanie Link: high-end spending, AI's broader impacts
- 08:12 – Simpson: sector rotation in rate-cutting environment
- 11:49 – Stephanie Link: Housing supply & demand imbalances
- 12:27 – Apple iPhone 17 launch reactions (Kovach, Simpson, Link, Snipe)
- 18:57 – Semis: Nvidia, Broadcom, covered call strategy
- 23:40 – Financials: trades and sector outlook (Cap One, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs)
- 28:46 – Committee stock moves: Coinbase, T-Mobile, Eli Lilly, Healthcare
- 36:43 – Mike Santoli: midday word on market sentiment
- 39:29 – Tesla outlook post-upgrade; commodity/gold segment
- 42:19 – CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, cybersecurity sector performance
- 43:35 – All-time highs in committee stocks (GE Aerospace, AXP)
- 44:53 – Earnings preview (AutoZone, Costco)
- 46:39 – Final trades: AXP, BX, Lennar
This episode provided a tactical, actionable playbook for portfolio management at market highs. The consensus: stay invested, look for catch-up trades in lagging sectors, rotate selectively, use core strategies like covered calls for income, and always watch the macro signals—especially Fed actions. Tech, housing, consumer, and financial names were all parsed with an eye to both ongoing risks and new cycle opportunities.