Podcast Summary: Halftime Report – "Your Record High Playbook" (June 30, 2025)

Introduction In this episode of CNBC's "Halftime Report," hosted by Scott Wapner, the focus centers on the current market dynamics as they approach new record highs. Joined by industry experts Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, and Jim Lebenthal, the discussion delves into market sentiment, sector performances, notable stock movements, and strategic investment insights.

1. Market Overview and Sentiment

Timestamp: 00:40 – 05:28

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the market's robust performance, noting that "we're green across the board" and questioning the future trajectory now that record highs have been achieved. The panel reflects on the market's recovery from the lows experienced in February, with Jim Lebenthal expressing a cautiously optimistic stance despite his bearish reputation:

Jim Lebenthal [02:07]: "When I'm fully invested, you know, you get kind of nervous... We have a new cohort of investors who are just used to V-shaped recoveries."

The conversation touches on institutional investor caution, referencing Tony Pascarello from Goldman Sachs and Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley, both maintaining bullish perspectives over varying horizons. The panel debates whether the current optimism is substantiated or if market fundamentals reveal underlying vulnerabilities.

2. Sector Analysis

Timestamp: 05:28 – 12:16

Steve Weiss provides a comprehensive sector analysis, emphasizing a more diversified and healthier market landscape compared to previous years. He points out international opportunities, noting significant gains in Europe (Germany, UK, Spain) and North America (Brazil, Mexico, Canada). Fixed income is also highlighted as performing well:

Steve Weiss [05:35]: "At some point in the second half of the year we'll have a correction and I think you buy that correction. I think we have a much healthier market in 2025 than we had in '23 and '24."

The panel discusses the resilience of different sectors, with Jim Lebenthal and Tony Pascarello focusing on industrials and financials. They debate the classification of these sectors as "value" despite their high valuations, arguing that their performance metrics still indicate value based on dividends and earnings potentials.

3. Stock-Specific Discussions

a. Technology Sector and Nvidia

Timestamp: 08:26 – 17:06

The discussion shifts to specific high-performing technology stocks. Joe Terranova raises concerns about the underlying strength of the market by referencing metrics like the Russell 3000’s net new highs, which have declined from 70% to 45%:

Joe Terranova [07:21]: "Those numbers would suggest that this is not nearly as strong a market now as it was in the period that you're pointing out."

Steve Weiss counters by emphasizing momentum and diversification within the tech sector, while Tony Pascarello defends value within high-performing tech stocks, including Nvidia. The conversation addresses insider trading activities at Nvidia, with Jim Lebenthal reassuring that insider sales do not necessarily indicate negative sentiment:

Jim Lebenthal [17:06]: "I don't blame. I would take some money off the table. It's prudent management of their personal finance."

b. Disney

Timestamp: 40:14 – 46:32

The panel discusses Disney's recent stock performance, which saw a 52-week high and an upgrade from Jefferies to "Buy" with a target price increase. Tony Pascarello highlights Disney's strong performance in the entertainment segment, particularly in cruise lines and the expansion of Disney+, which he believes will drive future earnings:

Tony Pascarello [41:32]: "the direct to consumer segment is where it's going to come from... Disney Plus has been outperforming... it's replacing linear, which is in secular decline."

Jim Lebenthal remains cautious, preferring to maintain his positions in pure-play streaming services like Netflix over Disney, despite recognizing Disney's strategic acquisitions and expansions.

c. Tesla

Timestamp: 26:23 – 33:31

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing Tesla's performance 15 years post-IPO. Phil LeBeau explores whether Tesla's best days are behind it, considering its ambitious ventures into autonomous vehicles and robotics. The panel debates Tesla’s position in the autonomous market, competition from companies like Waymo, and the implications of insider selling:

Scott Wapner [31:10]: "Do you have the gumption to hang on to these shares if deliveries do not improve?"

Jim Lebenthal reinforces the importance of fundamental analysis, noting the deceleration in Tesla's earnings and revenue growth, despite its strong performance in momentum funds:

Jim Lebenthal [34:47]: "Over the last 12 months, Tesla has the highest performance... But fundamentally, there is weakness there, softness."

Tony Pascarello argues that increasing competition, especially in autonomous technology, could pressure Tesla’s margins and market share, urging investors to remain cautious.

4. ETF Edge Segment

Timestamp: 37:23 – 40:14

Dom Chu introduces the ETF Edge segment featuring Tom Lee, CIO at Fundstrat Global Advisors, discussing the "Granny Shots ETF." The ETF focuses on selecting high-conviction stocks that intersect multiple growth themes such as AI, cybersecurity, and global labor shortages. Lee explains the methodology of choosing stocks that align with multiple investment themes to enhance conviction and potential returns:

Tom Lee: "The more themes it's tied to, the more it's like a granny shot... the higher conviction to trade it is."

Notable holdings include Google and Meta, which score high across multiple themes, positioning them as cornerstone investments within the ETF.

5. Final Trades and Market Outlook

Timestamp: 44:46 – 46:32

In the concluding segments, the panel shares their final trades and midday market sentiments. Tony Pascarello and Jim Lebenthal discuss specific stock positions, such as UnitedHealthcare and Mercado Libre, reflecting a mix of confidence and caution. The overall market outlook remains positive, with discussions hinting at potential corrections but maintaining an optimistic stance based on improved financial conditions and ongoing market momentum.

Notable Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal [02:42]: "We have a new cohort of investors who are just used to V-shaped recoveries and that's probably the right thing to do because that means you're always staying invested."

• Steve Weiss [05:35]: "At some point in the second half of the year we'll have a correction and I think you buy that correction."

• Tony Pascarello [09:37]: "I still think they're a value... financials, if you're looking at a lot of these stocks... you're talking high single digit multiples, high dividend yields."

• Jim Lebenthal [17:06]: "I don't blame. I would take some money off the table. It's prudent management of their personal finance."

• Tony Pascarello [41:32]: "the direct to consumer segment is where it's going to come from... Disney Plus has been outperforming."

• Scott Wapner [31:10]: "Do you have the gumption to hang on to these shares if deliveries do not improve?"

Conclusion The episode of "Halftime Report" provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market's record highs, underpinning optimism with cautious insights from seasoned investors. While sectors like technology and financials show robust performance, discussions around specific stocks like Tesla and Disney reveal a nuanced landscape where growth prospects are balanced against competitive and fundamental challenges. The ETF Edge segment further enriches the conversation by introducing strategic investment vehicles tailored to capitalize on multifaceted growth themes.

For listeners who wish to stay informed on market trends and investment strategies, this episode offers valuable perspectives and actionable insights to navigate the evolving financial landscape.