
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss your playbook for a record high stock market as the second half is about to get underway. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, the Committee debate the latest Call of the Day on Disney. Investment Committee Disclosures
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So things like the passport numbers for.
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And that video call for your gran's.
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Joe Terranova
No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in Wilford in the house. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wobner. Front and center this hour, the record high playbook. As the second half is about to get underway, we debate the road ahead with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal. We will go to the markets. We're green across the board. Our question is what happens now? We've been able to claw our way back from those lows in February. Goldman Sachs's Tony Pascarello guy says the path of least resistance is higher. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson of bearish past says still bullish on a 6 to 12 month horizon. And even our resident bear has come around.
Jim Lebenthal
I prefer resident Grinch.
Joe Terranova
You are the Grinch. Dracula the Grinch. Whatever, whatever the audience wants to call you today, they can call you. This is cable, so they can call you anything they want.
Jim Lebenthal
Anything they want.
Joe Terranova
You've fully, kind of capitulated. I mean, you're fully invested.
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah.
Joe Terranova
And whether you are comfortable with that or not, you're playing this game as though the market's going to continue to go up.
Jim Lebenthal
Yep. And I've been fully invested for a while, but when I'm fully invested, you know, you get kind of nervous. Right. Particularly when you have the amount of beta that I have in the portfolio, given the tech names that I own, which comprise the majority of the portfolio, the vast majority. But you know, this is really just an interesting market and I've talked about it before, I think we have a new cohort of investors, you know, over the last, you know, 15, 17 years are just used to V shaped recoveries and that's probably the right thing to do because that means you're always staying invested. You're buying on the dips.
Joe Terranova
Let me ask you this question.
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah.
Joe Terranova
I'm going to ask you to be a little introspective. I know it's difficult.
Jim Lebenthal
Very, very difficult. Wait, let me call my humility.
Joe Terranova
What do you, what do you think that you and maybe some of the others who are more cautious underestimated about the market environment from where we were the depths in February, I think they.
Jim Lebenthal
I think I underestimated their tolerance for, for chaos, lack of direction and, and risk. I mean, you still have corporates frozen. We just heard the CEO of the, of HSBC in the US talk about not really a lot's going on. There's a lot of uncertainty among institutional investors and that preys on CEOs who are loathe to invest in major capital into their growth because they don't know where you'd be able to grow and supply chains. They're moving. They're not frozen, but they're moving not the way you want you if you.
Joe Terranova
Invested, don't mean you personally, but if the typical viewer invested based on what the average CEO, right. Or average hedge fund investor said over the last six months, you'd have missed a good portion of this move because there's been a lot of caution. Certainly, as you said on the institutional side, there's been a lot of caution in the C suites and much of what they've been cautious about hasn't materialized in large respects.
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah. And to be fair, I don't really care what the average hedge fund manager is. But I know exactly what you mean.
Joe Terranova
I'm making is where sentiment was from.
Jim Lebenthal
Those falling down from those cohorts. You know, sometimes it takes a while for things to play out, so it's not instantaneous. And that's why I'm still cautious about this quarter's earnings. What the guidance will be now, I do believe they'll get a reprieve despite Trump saying he's not going to extend past the July debt July 9 deadline. We know what the narrative will be. I've got so many, you know, trade potential trading partners or extreme partners wherever terminology that are so close to the deal. They're showing good faith. I want to give them a little more time because keep in mind what narrative has been two months ago. We have 20 deals that are going to be announced this week. We haven't seen really anything. We've seen some sort of a deal with the uk Our top Trading partner, our, our friendliest ally out there. Give us something but not much. So. So I think as long as you don't, as long as you avoid. Just a really strong case against trade. Right now people are comfortable with the 10% baseline tariff increase.
Joe Terranova
Joe. So we hit these record highs. We're going to turn the page to the back nine of the year. What are we set up to do?
Steve Weiss
I think at some point in the second half of the year we'll have a correction and I think you buy that correction. I think we have a much healthier market in 2025 than we had in 23 and 24. At the midpoint of 23 and 24, what were we talking about? We're talking about seven to 10 stocks that you can invest in and the struggles for the rest of the market. Now when you look at the market there is a much healthier diverse opportunity set. It goes beyond just equities here in the United States. If you look overseas, you'll see opportunities in Europe. Germany's outperforming up 20%. UK up double digits. You've got Spain up double digits, Hang seng up double digits. Even here in North America, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, outperforming the U.S. and we've had these concerns about fixed income. Well, taxable fixed income is doing great so far this year.
Joe Terranova
Let me stop for one minute because you're making comparison. You're pointing out how strong things are, how great things are in the market. I'm wondering if you look below the surface whether it's actually as strong as the record setting move would suggest it is. And since you brought up 2,000 underneath the surface, the number of New York Stock Exchange net new highs this prior Friday only reached 70 plus more than 370 in November of 2024. 70% of Russell 3000 stocks were trading above their 200 day average when the S&P 500 first rallied above 6000. In November of 24. That number narrowed to 59% into the market's divergent February peak and only reached 45% last week. Those numbers would suggest that this is not nearly as strong a market now as it was in the period that you're pointing out.
Steve Weiss
You're just specifically looking at the s and P500.
Joe Terranova
I'm looking at the Russell 3000.
Steve Weiss
Well, the Russell has struggled and has struggled over the last several years because it doesn't have the earnings growth. I don't think just because you don't have in equities themselves the type of participation that you had in November. And by the way, remember in November you had the head fake in the Russell in November it looked like health care and other sectors that had been underperforming would actually participate and they're actually not. So I don't know. I'm looking at it from the standpoint of how do you do asset allocation in a portfolio? And it looks pretty good to me because as I said, it's not just equities, it's fixed income. And it's a lot of different places that you could go. Also, volatility has basically remained the same and by the way, as it really relates rather to the volatility in the treasury market, we sit right now for us 10 year at 4.27. The average for a 10 year over the last 24 months is 4.27. So where have we really gone? Maybe to a lot of different places, but we ended up in the same.
Joe Terranova
So point of, the point of me bringing up those numbers is the higher stocks continue to go higher, you're not getting the bottoms up breakouts. The bottoms up.
Steve Weiss
Well, momentum's leading.
Joe Terranova
Well, momentum's leading. Lower beta, lower. Higher beta, lower. Quality is leading, sergeant.
Steve Weiss
But just because momentum is leading, that's not an indication that the market is reaching in an inflection point. When momentum rolls over, I'll be the first to say that you're reaching an inflection point and yet you're right. So some of the quality names are not performing right now, but I don't think we're getting to the exuberant level that we got in 20.
Tony Pascarello
I'm with you on this. Okay. And look, the numbers that you stated are the factual numbers. But there's a lot of stocks that in 2024, 2023 were absolutely left behind, did nothing that are performing well right now. You can look at sectors, financials just as a sector, you can look at more value. And I know this has been talked about a lot in the last couple of weeks. Value tech stocks like a Cisco, some of the non AI chip names like Qualcomm, like an amap, things that really have been left for debt are actually now performing industrial. So yes, there is, Scott, there's.
Joe Terranova
I know, but industrials aren't a value. Financials aren't a value. They're both at highs.
Tony Pascarello
I would, I would, I would.
Joe Terranova
Both at highs.
Tony Pascarello
I factually they're at highs. I still think they're a value. And certainly if you look at financials, industrials a little harder to make that case. But financials, if you're looking at a lot of these stocks. You're talking high single digit multiples, high dividend yields. Yes, a little bit of a premium to book, I'll give you that. Industrials, look, most of them are now in the high teens, bordering on 20. If you talk to me, and this is Steve, you know, you talk about a new generation of investors. If you talk to me 10, 15 years ago and said industrials trading at 20s or value, I would have disagreed. But we're now 10, 15 years past that. And that's where these things trade, you know, and that's cheap to the market.
Jim Lebenthal
You know, one of the things I put my note to you this morning was that the additional comfort in the market is that the rally has broadened. So with that, people that just don't invest tech because they're afraid of the volatility. Even though I look at volatility as risk now have places to go. Industrials have done well. Financials have done well.
Joe Terranova
The big ones, right? Exactly. If you look at the S and P versus the equal weight, it pretty, it tells a pretty distinct story.
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah, and that's where the additional comfort they need comes in. So they want to go into the big names, you know, the small names, they catch up when, when the markets are correct. And then the junk, I'm not saying they're junk, but generally the ones that are less popular will move and lead that recovery.
Joe Terranova
No, but look, if you look at the gains quarter to date from the high beta etf, just to show you the kinds of things, we're talking about popular names that you hear about a lot on this program that many of you may own, either because you've heard a lot about them on the program or you know about the stocks because they play in many respects into the AI. Broadcom, Vistra. Right. NRG, we're talking about powering AI. Look at the winners quarter to date, Vernova's up 73%, NRG 69%, Seagate 67, Vistra 66, Broadcom 61, Constellation 59. These are extraordinary gains in a very short period of time.
Jim Lebenthal
Yes, Seagate for one, because it's more of a commodity stock. But if you go to the second list here, you take a look at Palantir. Palantir has become the ultimate cold stock here where you can't justify the valuation. But you know, their product and their technology is leading the pack. Both in defense industrials have had nice boost from defense companies. So Palantir is right in the sweet spot out of all that. Look to me, it's still, it's still a brand name market overall. And the biggest brand name of all is you, as you mentioned, is I. And I continue to go. And that's ratified by what we're seeing with Metta.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, Meta hit a new high today, by the way.
Tony Pascarello
Yep.
Jim Lebenthal
And that's, I guess my largest position, again goes between that Netflix and one or two others. But Metta, he sees it. And so for all the narrative that, oh, well, you know, these, these stocks haven't paid off, they haven't recouped their spending. They're not going to for a while. But you've got to invest in the future. So if these companies were not spending what they're spending in a. I wouldn't own them because they'll be left behind and you can't catch up.
Joe Terranova
Yeah. This is not an exercise to try and, you know, say that this record run is punk in any way. It's obviously not by any stretch of the imagination. It's also not trying to suggest that we're at necessarily some kind of top because of this kind of behavior. If anything, because of the institutional investor side of the equation that really hasn't fully bought in. It doesn't feel like.
Jim Lebenthal
Can it, Can I just interrupt one second before you go? You know, when we talk about the record run, we're talking about recovery of losses and going, going back to the high. It's not as if we started at a high point coming out of 24. Now we're hitting a new high.
Joe Terranova
No, but the move off the bottom has been legendary. Astounding legendary.
Tony Pascarello
6% on the S&P 500 through the first half of the year. I mean, that's not bad if you analyze that. That's, that's well above the, the historical average. I wouldn't, I wouldn't sneeze.
Joe Terranova
No. But a lot of the later stages of that move happened more recently.
Scott Wapner
Right.
Joe Terranova
We were sitting like up 2% for a while on the year, and now we've had this little burst in the last week and that's taking you even higher than that.
Tony Pascarello
There is unequivocally room for areas of this market to catch up. Small caps is a key example of that. If the market is doing what I think it's doing, which is basically endorsing this plan of the budget bill, plus tariffs as deficit neutral, economically stimulating. If that's what the markets are saying, by the way, I'm not going to walk away from that. That's why what I think the markets are saying, then Small caps are the area to look at, to catch up.
Steve Weiss
So the market has had these series of challenges in front of it in 25 and very quick resolutions. And I think that's been the catalyst. We've had the resolution. We're somewhat desensitized, as I've said over and over again, surrounding tariffs. I know July 9th is coming, but I think very few believe that there will not be resolutions. As we move through the third quarter, you now are pricing in four. From my perspective, the belief that on September 18th you're probably going to get a rate cut. I think the challenge comes and we do a lot of price pattern recognition. If you price pattern, if you do, if you pull the lens back to October of 22 and see where this all really began and pull it through to today, you kind of go back. There's about 14 or 15 pattern, strong pattern recognition series that you could look at. And it looks like maybe somewhere Around March of 26 is where you hit that significant inflection point. This thing probably rolls over and probably at that point you run out of the tailwinds. You run out of the certainty surrounding the tax bill, getting, extending the regulatory relief, the tariff resolutions. At that point in 26, it's kind of like, okay, what do I have? But up until that moment, you've got momentum that is clearly the market higher.
Joe Terranova
You also have the, if you think that the Runway is in fact that long, you have the fear of missing out fomo, which is still that factor that's kind of sitting out there. And people are wondering, well, when is that going to provide you the next leg? Let me ask you this. As I said, we're going to make the turn. Do I want to lean into the same areas that we've been leaning into now? You know, Pascarello at Goldman says look to buy any meaningful dips in tech, you've had an amazing move for, for that sector in and of itself. The tech sector is set for its best quarter in five years.
Jim Lebenthal
I would, I mean that's, you know, speak with my feet and put my money where my mouth is, etcetera, etcetera. I think they'll still be the performers. And what I'm comforted by is that look, they're a little over overvalued here. You know, media can't keep going up every day like it has. But, and nor, I can't tell you, Microsoft, I'd buy it here because of the valuation. But the good thing about these stocks is that valuation is temporary. So what I mean by that is, even if they sell off for any reason, they will ultimately recover because there's such unique businesses and companies and everybody with AI and the productivity enhancements will get from AI, which we're already seeing. You're going to rush to these companies.
Joe Terranova
What about this though? Insiders at Nvidia, according to the FTSE, have dumped more than $1 billion in stock over the last year. About $500 million worth of sales occurred over the last month.
Jim Lebenthal
I don't, I don't blame. I would take some money off the table. Keep in mind these people are. And when I worked at Lehman, I told everybody at work for me to, long before I Left there in O2, sell whatever you can as you vest because you're leveraged, double leveraged, you're working there. So your income, daily income is dependent upon it. So why have everything in one basket? So to me it's prudent management of their personal finance.
Joe Terranova
Can you make the statement from insider to the average Joe who loves Nvidia and bought the stock and sitting in a nice game?
Jim Lebenthal
No, they're in a different position. I mean if they have very nice gain, sure, I think you should bank some of it, particularly if you have capital gains out of longer term capital gains. But remember we had the same conversation not that long ago when Bezos sold some Amazon and when Zuckerberg sold some Metta. I mean they just sell and that's what should be now. Would alarm me if Jensen Wong found somebody to buy most of his position. Right, but that's not going to happen. So, so that, that to me it's a nice headline, but it means nothing.
Steve Weiss
So to answer your question surrounding technology, what's interesting is that a lot of momentum funds, my mind included, were really carrying an underweight towards the semiconductor industry coming into this quarter. Now we have the flexibility in rebalancing on a quarterly basis and I'm very satisfied with how we've done so far even being underweight semiconductors. But now you have the participation. Semiconductors right now are exhibiting very strong performance and I would imagine that you're going to see a lot of repositioning from a lot of momentum funds into semiconductors that kind of been sitting in software. So I don't think the playbook changes very much in the second half of the year. If there is is one area of the equity market I'd be skeptical to kind of buy into, even if you see a recovery that would be small caps, I just don't think you need it. I think mid caps and Large caps are giving you enough.
Joe Terranova
Have you sold all your small cap position?
Tony Pascarello
Yeah, because remember I got out of Casey's. That was my last small cap. I mean mid caps. I've got things like, you know, wind resort.
Joe Terranova
But you had like the ijr, I think.
Tony Pascarello
Yeah, I took it. I took that out, took that complete.
Joe Terranova
Would you get back into the small caps? Is there a catch up trade to be had?
Tony Pascarello
I think there is. And you know, as we talk about this rally and Scott, as you entered the segment, you talked about FOMO sentiment. Sentiment is real. And think about people who are watching right now who are hearing the headlines of all time high, second day in a row. The first thing they do is they get back in the names that they know. Those are the Mag 7. But as they get comfortable, more and more that market's going higher, they broaden out. And while that broadening out may end up or start with large caps that people aren't thinking about, I already mentioned industrials. Maybe it goes to health care. Eventually it does get to small caps. If, and this is the big if. If the economy holds in there. Steve, you're right. Maybe this second.
Joe Terranova
I don't know about that, man. You get like a repetitive. It just becomes a repetitive thing.
Jim Lebenthal
Tariffs.
Joe Terranova
You've been saying that a year. If the economy holds up, small caps are going to do well. Well, you know what, the economy's held up pretty damn well and small caps have done garbage. The small caps are down on the year when everything else is up. Right. So you need something more obviously.
Tony Pascarello
Well, okay, obviously in. Instead of. And that might be Fed rate cuts, by the way. It might be Fed rate cuts. I think you said September or maybe you said September. I'll make the case that they actually should go in July. I mean all these, all these inflation numbers have two handles on them. I get it. We're data dependent. But we're now talking we've got June in the bag as far as inflation figures go. There should be some tariff impact there. It's just not showing up. Maybe it'll show up in the June figures that get reported in the month of July, but if they don't, they really should be going in July. There's no reason not to.
Joe Terranova
Let's hit financials again. We didn't really hit it, but they did hit a record high today. Mike Mayo from Wells is talking about how deregulation is real. Goldman and JP Morgan are both at record highs. Jim, your city is the highest since December of 2008. You've had to Wait a little bit relative to some of the others, but it feels like you're getting rewarded finally on that one.
Tony Pascarello
Yeah, still just a little bit below tangible book value. And I've said all along, I don't understand why it is below tangible book value. Look, I think a comparable here, I'm not going to put it on the same pedestal with J.P. morgan. Nobody's on that pedestal but bank of America, Wells Fargo, those trade at nice premiums to tangible book value. And I think Citigroup will get their.
Joe Terranova
Bank of America is a dramatic underperformer relative to everything else this year. This year for. Why, why is that? You know you still have that stock.
Jim Lebenthal
I do, I do. I mean the size of position. Goldman is nowhere near what Goldman is, which is also in my top holdings. I just think it's too vanilla that you can't make an exciting story out with Citi. It's the recovery that you're seeing crossing.
Joe Terranova
With even strong consumer. You can't make a story on that? I mean, no, not really. Isn't that their bread and butter?
Jim Lebenthal
I think the average consumer is, is struggling but so much of the spending, the overwhelming majority of the spending is with the top wage earners. So you can't even make that story there. And you can't make it in banking because even though they bank a lot, it's diluted by their massive other businesses versus more concentration.
Joe Terranova
What if everything though now because they passed the stress test with flying colors, deregulation, everything else. You're going to be able to buy back more stock and you're going to be able to increase your dividend. You're going to reward shareholders with more.
Jim Lebenthal
Distinguishing factor though versus the others. They'll be.
Joe Terranova
I'm talking about as a group, Boats as a group.
Jim Lebenthal
I like the group. You know, I continue to, I continue to regret not buying City. I was waiting for it to come back down to earth and you should listen to Jim. I should have but as you know, it's gotten me into trouble before. No, I'm only kidding.
Joe Terranova
It really has.
Steve Weiss
Goldman Sachs, really.
Jim Lebenthal
It's been a great story. He's been dead on it.
Steve Weiss
The results of the stress tests really signal Goldman Sachs is in a good position.
Jim Lebenthal
Great position.
Steve Weiss
Cash deploy capital. And one of the interesting things is, you know, we didn't talk much about this last week. You had this potential, this rumor surrounding bank of New York Mellon and Northern Trust potential M and A activity. You haven't seen M and A, any significant M and A in the financial sector. And I think we might be at the cusp of that, actually.
Jim Lebenthal
You saw one almost last week, right?
Joe Terranova
Almost.
Steve Weiss
And I think that's signaling and it's a good test for President Trump's administration and what their flex is going to be towards M and A and the concerns that you might have. But that deal, I think, opens up the possibility that others, Goldman Sachs, that are now flush with capital are going to be going out there and trying to acquire a lot of advancement in technological areas related to the financial system.
Jim Lebenthal
Goldman Sachs is in every single conversation I have with anything. In every conversation, you're listening to the people you're talking to, you or you. So that's why I like Goldman. JP Morgan's there as well. So B of A really needs a strong identity to get it going.
Joe Terranova
Let's get to a move before we get out of here in our A block today. Speaking of a stock that has ridden the market wave, MP Materials, Jim Leventhal. It's up 50% in a month. It's up 105% in six months. It's up 158% in 12 months. And you are selling it.
Tony Pascarello
This was my trade war play, and it played out. I said when I bought it, this was a strategic play on China rare earth elements. That story's played out. I think this is a fabulous company. I think that it will do well as a company over the coming years as it continues to execute not just on mining rare earth elements, but refining them and building the magnets. The problem is, is that it's now more than fully priced. And as you think about the trade war, I think there's more room for trade war news to get positive than there is for it to get negative. I'm not ruling out that things get worse, that China doesn't restrict rare earth elements again, but it just feels like the story has fully played out. It's been wonderful. I've had fun with it. It's time to move on.
Joe Terranova
All right, up next, Tesla crossing a major market milestone today. But are the company's best days in the rear view or not? We will debate that next. Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders.
Scott Wapner
I'm poet Saeed Jones. And I'm producer Zach Stafford. And we are the hosts of a.
Joe Terranova
Podcast called Vibe Check. On Vibe Check, we talk about everything. News, culture and entertainment and how it all feels.
Scott Wapner
That's right. We talk about any and everything on our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface. Yes, indeed. And it doesn't Stop there.
Steve Weiss
We have got a lot to say.
Joe Terranova
So join our group chat come to life.
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Mobile.Com all right, welcome back. 15 years ago yesterday, Tesla went public. We want to know what's ahead for the company, are the best days behind it? Phil LeBeau is looking into that. With so many issues to think about. Phil.
Scott Wapner
Scott, do you believe in autonomous and optimus? That's really the question right now. And who knows if that'll be the question 15 years from now. We might look back at this time and go, it's kind of a foolish question. Remains to be seen. Back 15 years ago a lot of people were saying, well, will Tesla A be able to make a profit and B grow the EV market? If you were an investor back then and you might be saying to yourself, well yes, if you invested early on, those were great returns. But we broke it down in five year increments. The best returns were during the first five years of of owning Tesla shares. A bit of a lull between 15 and 20. A couple of issues in there in terms of ramping production. And then you see what's happened since 2020 up 444%. Deliveries was what everybody was focused on for a good chunk of the last 15 years. And the ramp up it played out is Zach exactly as Elon Musk said it would though keep in mind and we'll get the latest Q2 deliveries likely on Wednesday. That estimate is 387,000 vehicles keeps coming down. It was 393,000 last week. That's the consensus among analysts. For the year, the estimate is 1.65 million. For a point of reference, last year the company delivered just over 1.89 million. Nonetheless, William Blair, like many analysts, the analyst at William Blair is out with a note today saying, look, we believe that when you look at the robo taxi, this is the future. And this is where Tesla will make money. It is projecting 35% of the rideshare market will be held by Tesla, its robo taxi, cyber cab, some combination of that, near 60% EBITDA margins and $250 billion in revenue. All of this by 2040. So if you believe that, if you think that is a good estimate, yeah, this might be the time to buy into shares of Tesla. Keep in mind, the company also did its first autonomous delivery down in Texas Friday night. Scott, the bottom line is this. Do you believe in autonomous? And if you think Tesla, with its vision only approach is going to win that market, or at least win a big chunk of it, well, then maybe now is the time to say, okay, I think the next 5, 10, 15 years will be a good investment.
Joe Terranova
So if, if I am a true believer in autonomous, Phil, like I'm sure many investors, investors in the name currently are. Does that mean that the delivery numbers, which remain pretty bad, let's be honest, in Europe, yes, if they continue to get worse or at the bare minimum don't get any better, does it even matter? Because when people like Deutsche bank today, they look at the projection and they say the brand damage has been done the most in Europe and competition over there is intensifying as well. Does it even matter if I am a believer, as you say, in autonomous?
Scott Wapner
It probably doesn't if you are a true believer in autonomous. But Scott, you got to have. I mean, if you are a true believer in autonomous, you have to say to yourself, this is one of the bets that Elon Musk is making that will pay off. And remember, over the history of Tesla, there have been bets that have not paid off. Remember the solar roofs? Remember that that was supposed to be a big market. Remember Tesla insurance? None of those have contributed to the bottom line in significant manner. And so the question becomes, do you have the gumption to hang on to these shares if deliveries do not improve? And it takes a while for autonomous to pay off? Because while they, you know, they say they're going to have the future and a Lot of people believe that Tesla will be the future. It's behind Waymo right now. And there are more than a few questions about how long it will take to ramp up.
Tony Pascarello
Hey, Phil, it's Jim Leventhal. Just. I want to hear your response to what seems to me to be obvious. Those early returns you mentioned were when Tesla was the first mover in electric vehicles. They're not the first mover. Right. They're not the first mover in autonomous. Waymo is kind of killing everybody else with it. They're not the first mover in some of the other areas that you mentioned. Whether it's robotics or AI, they have heavy competition. Doesn't that fact sort of mean you should drag down the multiple? It's just it can't do what. What it did when it had the EV market all to itself.
Scott Wapner
You are hitting the exact argument, Jim, in terms of why people should be cautious about shares of Tesla, that as optimistic as Elon Musk is regarding autonomous or optimus robots, most people in the auto industry look at where Tesla is with autonomous vehicles and they say, you know what? It ain't a. It ain't a straight shot. As you mentioned, they are not with the first mover advantage. And the competition. Look at the competition when it comes to autonomous vehicles in China. That's in China. I mean, we focus on what's here in the United States. States so much because it's our backyard. If that's happening in China, how do you think it's going to play out in Europe? You think that Tesla is going to have first mover, is not going to have first mover advantage. So it gets to your point in.
Tony Pascarello
Terms of, sorry, you know, the competition. You know from your business acumen that competition kills margins. Five years ago, the margins on Tesla vehicles were extraordinary. They're not anymore. That's how competition works.
Scott Wapner
Right? Right. And look, there are more than a few who have said that. When it comes to the rideshare market, are people really going to sit there and say, oh, yeah, I'm using Tesla instead of Uber or instead of Waymo? You know how this works. Once you get into a certain app, whether it's Waymo, whether it's Uber, whether it's Lyft, you generally continue using that. And that doesn't mean that Tesla can't take some of that share there. But there are more than a few who look at that market and they say Tesla is not a slam dunk to get 35% of the market.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, Phil, thanks, man. We'll See you. That's Phil LeBeau. You bet. With that story, you, you are the stock. You're the only one here on the desk today. You have it in the etf, which you're making a decision these days to, you know, in your rebalance what to do with it.
Steve Weiss
I'm going to share a remarkable statistic in a moment. But first, let's talk fundamentally about this stock. There is clearly fundamental challenges. When you look at eps, when you look at revenue, when you look at free cash flow, all of it is decelerating. JP Morgan puts a note out today talking about Q2 deliveries which they expect to be down similar to, similar to the way that Q1 was down. So fundamentally there is weakness there, softness. They have to revive growth. Here's the challenge for someone like myself who holds, holds it in a momentum fund. A 12 month time period in a momentum fund is significant. Over the last 12 months, if I take the Mag 7, Tesla has the highest performance. It's up 52%, which no one would really think about. You would think of the other names and you expect to see them outperforming. Met is up 46%. So that's where time frames kind of matter. And on a 12 month basis basis right now, Tesla's outperforming all the other seven. I acknowledge fundamentally it has challenges. As you roll off, as you roll off the period between June into the fall, then those numbers are going to look significantly worse. So they probably have about three months to revive some of the growth and get the fundamental story going.
Joe Terranova
Okay, you'll let us know what you do in the rebalance. Silvana now has the headlines for us.
Scott Wapner
Hi, Sylvana, good afternoon to you.
Joe Terranova
As the Senate votes on amendments on.
Scott Wapner
President Trump's tax bill, a senior White.
Joe Terranova
House official tells NBC News the president is set to meet with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson. The official said. President Trump made calls to lawmakers and monitor developments on the Hill over the weekend. The Supreme Court has rejected an online censorship claim brought by Anti Vaccine, formerly.
Scott Wapner
Run by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Against meta platforms. The justice's decision leaves in place lower court rulings that tossed out the lawsuit.
Joe Terranova
Which claimed Facebook worked with the federal government to restrict access to its content beginning in 2019.
Scott Wapner
And after seven weeks of testimony from.
Joe Terranova
34 witnesses, jurors are now deliberating.
Scott Wapner
In Sean Diddy Combs sex trafficking trial, the music mogul faces five federal charges.
Joe Terranova
Including racketeering conspiracy that if convicted, would give him life in prison. Combs has pleaded not guilty to the charges. Halftime Report is back after this break. Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders.
Scott Wapner
I'm poet Saeed Jones. And I'm producer Zach Stafford. And we are the host of a.
Joe Terranova
Podcast called Vibe Check. On Vibe Check, we talk about everything, news, culture and entertainment and how it all feels.
Scott Wapner
That's right, we talk about any and everything on our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface. Yes, indeed. And it doesn't stop there.
Steve Weiss
We have got a lot to say. So join our group, chat, come to.
Joe Terranova
Life, follow and listen to Vibe Check wherever you get your podcasts.
Scott Wapner
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.
Joe Terranova
With the price of just about everything.
Scott Wapner
Going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in.
Joe Terranova
A reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing Mint Mobile unlimited premium wireless.
Scott Wapner
30, 30. Better get 30.
Steve Weiss
Better get 20. 20, 20. Better get 20.
Joe Terranova
20.
Steve Weiss
You better get 15.
Scott Wapner
15, 15, 15.
Steve Weiss
Just 15 bucks a month.
Jim Lebenthal
Sold.
Scott Wapner
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com.
Joe Terranova
All right, we're back on the Halftime Report. Dom Chu has today's ETF Edge for us. Hey, Dom. All right. So Scott, with the markets on track to close out the second quarter at record highs, one fund that's riding the wave also now holds the record just six months of the fastest to reach $1 billion in assets in more than 20 years. But its biggest holdings might not be what you expect. Why? How does it work? Joining us now is a familiar face, Tom Lee, CIO at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Scott Wapner
To take us inside the Granny Shots etf.
Joe Terranova
And for a lot of folks out there who don't know this, this is you are an advisor, the sub advisor of record for this Granny Shots etf. I I would like you to take us through what exactly is a granny shot and what methodology goes into identifying what those Granny shot stocks are. Glad to. The Granny Shot is named after Rick Barry's and basketball's unconventional way to do a free throw underhanded NBA hall of Famer. And what we wanted to do was to buy the 35 most important stocks in the S&P 500. So 465 matter, but we want to get you the most important ones and we said there are seven themes that are driving these markets for the next five to 10 years, millennials, AI security, cybersecurity, monetary policy.
Scott Wapner
You know, global labor shortage.
Joe Terranova
And we said, find the most important stocks in the S and P in each silo. And then we said, you know what, if you just take one silo, that's like trying to do a cool shot. We said, we want to buy a stock that's in multiple themes. So the more themes it's tied to, the more it's like a granny shop. So the higher conviction to trade it is correct, the more ways you can win. Because if something's nothing's ever been seven of seven, but if it's in seven of seven, then it's probably going to work because one of those seven things is always working. Okay, now if you take us through the 30 to 35 high conviction plays, you said the more boxes it checks off, the higher conviction traded is which are then the highest conviction trades within the granny shot portfolio. Today, the names that are 5 or 5 of 7 is Google and Metta. And it makes sense because, you know, they're both giant companies tied to so many things.
Scott Wapner
They're tied to millennials, they're tied to.
Joe Terranova
AI, they really are tied to cybersecurity in their own way and they're very leveraged to things like monetary policy and also the business cycle. All right, so the granny shots, high conviction when it comes to those, those two meta platforms and Google parent company Alphabet. Tom Lee, thank you very much.
Scott Wapner
And by the way, we're going to continue the discussion and conversation over at ETF edge.cnbc.com Tom's going to be joined.
Joe Terranova
By financial futurist Dave Nadig to talk all things, not just granny shots, but all the sector flows as well.
Scott Wapner
Scott, tune in online. I'll send things back over to you.
Joe Terranova
All right, Dom, thanks so much. Tom, thank you as well. Your call today is next Wall street getting bullish on a big media name hitting a 52 week high. We do have ownership here. We'll debate it next. Our call today is Disney and it got upgraded today to buy from hold the target 144 from 100 at Jefferies obviously blew by the 104. Primary reasons. Jimmy. Okay, limited risk of a park shutdown, more positive on cruise upside, continued direct to consumer margin expansion. And we View the next 6 months of content and sports slate favorably.
Tony Pascarello
That's a, that's a pretty good lineup and I agree with it all. Let's start with I'm going to lump the parks and the cruises together. That's the entertainment Segment for the last couple of years, as we've worried off and on about the economy slowing.
Jim Lebenthal
Go ahead.
Joe Terranova
I think I said parks shut down. I meant park slowdown. If I said shut down, I meant slowdown. I read it. I read it wrong. I was thinking about it shut down. Like, why would the park.
Tony Pascarello
You know what, there's been times slow down. There's been times in the last two years where it's felt like the stock price was indicating the parks were going to shut down. That wasn't the case. There's been concerns about pricing on the tickets, on food and everything. But at the end of the day, consumers keep coming back to Disney. Now, the cruise lines are really the strength in the experiences segment, but. But they're still building out the parks. They're going to build a new one in Dubai. They're expanding Florida. So it looks very good in terms of the juggernaut that is the entertainment sector. I think where we're underestimating things is direct to consumer Disney plus that has been outperforming. I think it will continue to outperform. Now, this is important not just because it's replacing linear, which is in secular decline, but because with Disney at the share price that it's at right now, you actually have to be looking for earnings outperformance versus earnings estimates. And if you're going to get that, I really think the direct to consumer segment is where it's going to come from. They just closed Hulu, or rather they got the final negotiation on that. So that's one, you know, other piece of the haircut.
Joe Terranova
It seems like this together. How about this? No competition first half of the year. Netflix vs Disney in stock performance. Similarly, how we looked at Tesla and Uber last week, right? It's been no contest. No contest for the first six months doesn't necessarily mean anything for the next six months. So Disney's got 79% of analysts with buys. Netflix has 69% of analysts with buys. Next six months. Weiss. For the next six months, you have Netflix. Jim's got Disney, which is primed to outperform given the run that Netflix has had and the one that Disney thinks it can still make, you know, it.
Jim Lebenthal
Could be Disney because they, they have really beefed up their offering with Hulu, the acquisition of it. But, you know, it'll just be a moment in time. I still still think that if you're playing streaming, that Netflix, being the pure play play, is going to do quite well. So I say with very, very little conviction that it could be Disney I see no reason to replace Netflix with Disney.
Tony Pascarello
Just one small thing here. If you look at the chart, there's a three year channel that it's right at the top of. Looks like it's going to break out. When it does. Katy, bar the door.
Jim Lebenthal
When did you start talking tech?
Tony Pascarello
I'm just listen, it's so obvious. It's right there.
Steve Weiss
The momentum is really strong in this name. Just took out the the March of 24 high 12372 next. When you're talking about August of 22, 12648 gets above there, it could go 145.
Jim Lebenthal
The other thing is that even though it shouldn't because it's same dollar amount, that having a stock selling at $1300 plus versus Disney at 123 again makes no sense. But that's where retail investors will likely go.
Joe Terranova
All right, Santori's next with his midday work. We're back right after this. Dental is here at the desk for his midday word, which is what? What do you think about this market?
Tony Pascarello
So you kind of, once you make.
Joe Terranova
The new high, you go back to.
Steve Weiss
The sort of principles of how you.
Tony Pascarello
Should deal with it.
Jim Lebenthal
Right.
Joe Terranova
It's not an immediate fade.
Tony Pascarello
Usually it's more positive on a forward looking basis.
Steve Weiss
What I think is interesting now though.
Tony Pascarello
Though is you can also do a pretty good side by side of where we are now which was, you know, two thirds of a percent from where we were at the prior peak in February. So you know, earnings on 12 month.
Joe Terranova
Forward basis are higher.
Steve Weiss
Fed's closer to a keep resetting these things. Treasury yields are lower than they were then.
Tony Pascarello
So is crude oil, so is the dollar.
Steve Weiss
So you have better financial conditions.
Tony Pascarello
And then the question is, has the market been just kind of stress tested for a potential worst case case trade scenario and what's priced in now? So I think you come away with it saying you give the market the.
Steve Weiss
Benefit of the doubt as you wait.
Joe Terranova
For signs of maybe near term exhaustion because I see some technical stuff saying it's tired.
Steve Weiss
We should probably cool off and pause.
Tony Pascarello
Before too long or until sentiment gets out of hand. We really haven't seen that. Except somebody has to explain to me.
Steve Weiss
Why Robinhood is up 10% on this.
Tony Pascarello
Set of announcements the company's made today.
Joe Terranova
Weiss, why don't you explain it?
Steve Weiss
Sorry, I've left him speechless.
Jim Lebenthal
I'm still joking. Jimmy's technique.
Joe Terranova
I couldn't help myself. Thanks.
Tony Pascarello
Do we need a defibrillator over here?
Scott Wapner
Only for Cleveland clips.
Joe Terranova
We'll do finals. We'll do finals next. All right, let's do final trades.
Tony Pascarello
Farmer Jim, we talked about ketchup earlier and I mentioned it. Then applied materials. That's catching up.
Joe Terranova
Okay. Weiss, you able to do this?
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah, unrelated to the cough I had. Yeah, UnitedHealthcare. So I'm not gonna drive their MLR.
Joe Terranova
Well, I. I hope they cover whatever you have. Not a member, Joe.
Jim Lebenthal
Unfortunately.
Tony Pascarello
Mercado Libre.
Joe Terranova
All right, so we'll see at 3 o' clock for closing bell. We are green across the board as we try and extend these record highs even further. That does it for us. The exchange begins right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live. Weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
Scott Wapner
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer.
Joe Terranova
Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders.
Scott Wapner
I'm poet Saeed Jones. And I'm producer Zach Stafford. And we are the hosts of a.
Joe Terranova
Podcast called Vibe Check. On Vibe Check, we talk about everything. News, culture and entertainment and how it all feels.
Scott Wapner
That's right. We talk about any and everything on our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface. Yes, indeed.
Joe Terranova
And it doesn't stop there.
Steve Weiss
We have got a lot to say, so join our group, chat, come to.
Joe Terranova
Life, follow and listen to Vibe Check wherever you get your podcasts.
Podcast Summary: Halftime Report – "Your Record High Playbook" (June 30, 2025)
Introduction In this episode of CNBC's "Halftime Report," hosted by Scott Wapner, the focus centers on the current market dynamics as they approach new record highs. Joined by industry experts Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, and Jim Lebenthal, the discussion delves into market sentiment, sector performances, notable stock movements, and strategic investment insights.
1. Market Overview and Sentiment
Timestamp: 00:40 – 05:28
Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the market's robust performance, noting that "we're green across the board" and questioning the future trajectory now that record highs have been achieved. The panel reflects on the market's recovery from the lows experienced in February, with Jim Lebenthal expressing a cautiously optimistic stance despite his bearish reputation:
Jim Lebenthal [02:07]: "When I'm fully invested, you know, you get kind of nervous... We have a new cohort of investors who are just used to V-shaped recoveries."
The conversation touches on institutional investor caution, referencing Tony Pascarello from Goldman Sachs and Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley, both maintaining bullish perspectives over varying horizons. The panel debates whether the current optimism is substantiated or if market fundamentals reveal underlying vulnerabilities.
2. Sector Analysis
Timestamp: 05:28 – 12:16
Steve Weiss provides a comprehensive sector analysis, emphasizing a more diversified and healthier market landscape compared to previous years. He points out international opportunities, noting significant gains in Europe (Germany, UK, Spain) and North America (Brazil, Mexico, Canada). Fixed income is also highlighted as performing well:
Steve Weiss [05:35]: "At some point in the second half of the year we'll have a correction and I think you buy that correction. I think we have a much healthier market in 2025 than we had in '23 and '24."
The panel discusses the resilience of different sectors, with Jim Lebenthal and Tony Pascarello focusing on industrials and financials. They debate the classification of these sectors as "value" despite their high valuations, arguing that their performance metrics still indicate value based on dividends and earnings potentials.
3. Stock-Specific Discussions
a. Technology Sector and Nvidia
Timestamp: 08:26 – 17:06
The discussion shifts to specific high-performing technology stocks. Joe Terranova raises concerns about the underlying strength of the market by referencing metrics like the Russell 3000’s net new highs, which have declined from 70% to 45%:
Joe Terranova [07:21]: "Those numbers would suggest that this is not nearly as strong a market now as it was in the period that you're pointing out."
Steve Weiss counters by emphasizing momentum and diversification within the tech sector, while Tony Pascarello defends value within high-performing tech stocks, including Nvidia. The conversation addresses insider trading activities at Nvidia, with Jim Lebenthal reassuring that insider sales do not necessarily indicate negative sentiment:
Jim Lebenthal [17:06]: "I don't blame. I would take some money off the table. It's prudent management of their personal finance."
b. Disney
Timestamp: 40:14 – 46:32
The panel discusses Disney's recent stock performance, which saw a 52-week high and an upgrade from Jefferies to "Buy" with a target price increase. Tony Pascarello highlights Disney's strong performance in the entertainment segment, particularly in cruise lines and the expansion of Disney+, which he believes will drive future earnings:
Tony Pascarello [41:32]: "the direct to consumer segment is where it's going to come from... Disney Plus has been outperforming... it's replacing linear, which is in secular decline."
Jim Lebenthal remains cautious, preferring to maintain his positions in pure-play streaming services like Netflix over Disney, despite recognizing Disney's strategic acquisitions and expansions.
c. Tesla
Timestamp: 26:23 – 33:31
A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing Tesla's performance 15 years post-IPO. Phil LeBeau explores whether Tesla's best days are behind it, considering its ambitious ventures into autonomous vehicles and robotics. The panel debates Tesla’s position in the autonomous market, competition from companies like Waymo, and the implications of insider selling:
Scott Wapner [31:10]: "Do you have the gumption to hang on to these shares if deliveries do not improve?"
Jim Lebenthal reinforces the importance of fundamental analysis, noting the deceleration in Tesla's earnings and revenue growth, despite its strong performance in momentum funds:
Jim Lebenthal [34:47]: "Over the last 12 months, Tesla has the highest performance... But fundamentally, there is weakness there, softness."
Tony Pascarello argues that increasing competition, especially in autonomous technology, could pressure Tesla’s margins and market share, urging investors to remain cautious.
4. ETF Edge Segment
Timestamp: 37:23 – 40:14
Dom Chu introduces the ETF Edge segment featuring Tom Lee, CIO at Fundstrat Global Advisors, discussing the "Granny Shots ETF." The ETF focuses on selecting high-conviction stocks that intersect multiple growth themes such as AI, cybersecurity, and global labor shortages. Lee explains the methodology of choosing stocks that align with multiple investment themes to enhance conviction and potential returns:
Tom Lee: "The more themes it's tied to, the more it's like a granny shot... the higher conviction to trade it is."
Notable holdings include Google and Meta, which score high across multiple themes, positioning them as cornerstone investments within the ETF.
5. Final Trades and Market Outlook
Timestamp: 44:46 – 46:32
In the concluding segments, the panel shares their final trades and midday market sentiments. Tony Pascarello and Jim Lebenthal discuss specific stock positions, such as UnitedHealthcare and Mercado Libre, reflecting a mix of confidence and caution. The overall market outlook remains positive, with discussions hinting at potential corrections but maintaining an optimistic stance based on improved financial conditions and ongoing market momentum.
Notable Quotes
Jim Lebenthal [02:42]: "We have a new cohort of investors who are just used to V-shaped recoveries and that's probably the right thing to do because that means you're always staying invested."
Steve Weiss [05:35]: "At some point in the second half of the year we'll have a correction and I think you buy that correction."
Tony Pascarello [09:37]: "I still think they're a value... financials, if you're looking at a lot of these stocks... you're talking high single digit multiples, high dividend yields."
Jim Lebenthal [17:06]: "I don't blame. I would take some money off the table. It's prudent management of their personal finance."
Tony Pascarello [41:32]: "the direct to consumer segment is where it's going to come from... Disney Plus has been outperforming."
Scott Wapner [31:10]: "Do you have the gumption to hang on to these shares if deliveries do not improve?"
Conclusion The episode of "Halftime Report" provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market's record highs, underpinning optimism with cautious insights from seasoned investors. While sectors like technology and financials show robust performance, discussions around specific stocks like Tesla and Disney reveal a nuanced landscape where growth prospects are balanced against competitive and fundamental challenges. The ETF Edge segment further enriches the conversation by introducing strategic investment vehicles tailored to capitalize on multifaceted growth themes.
For listeners who wish to stay informed on market trends and investment strategies, this episode offers valuable perspectives and actionable insights to navigate the evolving financial landscape.