CNBC Halftime Report: "Your September Strategy" – August 29, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode of the Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner and a panel of top investors tackle the challenging prospects facing the stock market as September looms—a month historically known for heightened volatility. They focus on the future of AI-related equities, key chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom, the outlook for power/infrastructure stocks, the bifurcation in software, sector rotation dynamics, the ongoing Fed interest rate debate, and timely stock moves in both retail and gaming. The dialogue is lively, candid, and occasionally contrarian, giving listeners actionable insight into market sentiment and strategy as summer turns to fall.

Panelists:

• Scott Wapner (Host)
• Stephanie Link
• Jim Lebenthal
• Amy Raskin
• Jason Snipe

Market Backdrop & AI Trade Woes (00:57 – 05:34)

Key Points:

• Markets are showing red going into a tough September.
• The hot AI trade is losing steam: Semiconductors (SMH ETF) suffer their worst day since April.
• Nvidia’s post-earnings performance disappoints despite reiterating massive future CapEx projections.

Notable Quotes:

• Stephanie Link [02:11]: “These stocks have had such a nice run… Broadcom is up 84% in the past year… Are there question marks about maybe the growth isn’t as fast? Of course. But Nvidia says 3 to 4 trillion dollars in CapEx and data center spend between now and 2030. They reiterated that. That means a 40 to 45% CAGR long-term—still very healthy growth."
• Scott Wapner [03:08]: "If you’re telling me the growth is not what it was... Why should everything else be like it is?”

Panel Dynamics:

• Wapner pushes for discipline on valuation as growth slows.
• Link defends chip valuations, with a preference for Broadcom over Nvidia due to diversified revenue.
• Broadcom’s reliance on recurring software and low likelihood of cutting guidance cited as strengths.

Differing AI & Chip Sector Views (05:35 – 10:46)

Amy Raskin's Contrarian Take:

• Skeptical on the 3-4 trillion CapEx forecast: “I think that 3 to 4 trillion number is crazy. I don’t think we’re going to get there… At some point that’s going to matter.” [05:53]
• Cautions about AI expectations getting "ahead of themselves" and sees eventual pullback.

Jim Lebenthal and Jason Snipe:

• Jim highlights both the "science" (multiples, PEG) and "art" (market sentiment, trimming winners) to market navigation, advocating recent profit taking and holding cash ahead of September.
• Jason emphasizes broader CapEx and sovereign/international demand for AI that isn’t limited to hyperscalers, viewing the current softness as digestion rather than trend reversal.

Memorable Moment:

• Jim Lebenthal [11:54]: “Nothing scares me. I’m a former nuclear submariner. Steely eyed killer of the deep… The 95% MIT study of companies that have not yet reached a gain from AI—that is opportunity. I see that ready to grow and I see the sentiment starting to roll over… opportunity to put money back to work in the next couple weeks.”

US-China AI/Chip Uncertainties & Infrastructure Trades (12:21 – 17:46)

China's Role in the AI Race:

• Nvidia’s future in China remains uncertain: Blackwell chips are probably off the table, and even Hopper access is in doubt, majorly impacting margins and sales.
• Guest chip analyst Stacey Raskin asserts local Chinese demand for Nvidia parts will persist even as local alternatives emerge, but regulatory overhang remains.

Infrastructure & Power Stocks:

• Recent sell-off in "power players" like Vertiv and Eaton is deemed a buy-the-dip opportunity by Link and Snipe, who see unfulfilled global data center demand as tailwind.
• Stephanie Link [15:44]: “You have utility and power companies double, triple the size of what they’re spending. We don’t have enough data centers… There’s estimated 11,400 data centers in the world—need to get to 30,000.”

Software Sector: Winners vs. Losers (17:46 – 23:50)

Software's Bifurcation:

• Strong Q2 software reports (MongoDB, Snowflake) have restored confidence in best-in-breed/cloud data players; others still struggle (C3AI, Fortinet, Oracle).
• Amy Raskin [18:21]: “Snowflake had a great quarter… at $66 billion market cap versus some other options, I’ll take it. For AI to even happen you need data organization, which is Snowflake.”
• Brad Gerstner (clip) [21:36]: “This quarter will mark the turning point of the AI winners in software… and maybe the underscoring of the losers.”

Panel Insights:

• Consensus that software is now a “guilty until proven innocent” space (Jim Lebenthal), where strong earnings are required to reignite sentiment or justify multiples.
• Stephanie Link still favors dynamic companies like Snowflake, citing accelerating margins and new product launches; she’s skeptical of slow-growing legacy plays trading at high multiples (e.g., Salesforce).

Policy & Fed Watch: Lisa Cook Case & Rate Cuts (23:51 – 27:19)

Lisa Cook Legal Battle:

• Eamon Javers recaps the high-profile court hearing over President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Key legal issues: The definition of “for cause” and whether a social media post constitutes appropriate notice of termination.

Rate Cut Outlook:

• Mixed opinions: Waller says don’t wait for cuts, Morgan Stanley says earlier cuts mean fewer cuts, and political pressure looms. Debate remains over the timing and magnitude of Fed easing amid sticky inflation.

Retail Stock Moves: Deckers & Gap (29:47 – 33:12)

Stephanie Link's New Buy – Deckers (DECK):

• “Strong brands, Hoka growing 20%+, international up 50%. At 17x forward estimates, with the stock still down 41% YTD, it’s a catch-up trade.” [30:07]

Gap’s Rollercoaster:

• Despite a comp sales miss, improving trends in core brands and new management give Link confidence, though tariff pressures mean investors must be “patient for the operating leverage story.”

Real-Time Stock Moves: Wynn Resorts (35:40 – 41:46)

Jim Lebenthal Trims WINN After Huge Run:

• “The stock’s up 70% in a year, 40% last three months… I’m trimming it here. If you want to buy low, you have to sell high…” [36:05]
• Contessa Brewer agrees Wynn is a “get in, get out, get back in” volatile play, despite the upcoming NFL season and sports betting surge.

Sector Rotation: Materials & Financials (42:10 – 45:39)

Gold & Copper:

• Amy Raskin bullish on Franco-Nevada (FNV) and gold ETF, citing global M2, weak dollar, and lack of new reserves.
• Stephanie Link sees a copper supply/demand inflection—and likes Freeport McMoRan (FCX) for its leverage.

Banks & Financials:

• Financials (XLF) making new highs. Amy warns they’re “getting a little extended,” plans to trim. Jason Snipe favors alternative asset managers (Blackstone, Apollo).

Closing Picks & Final Trades (46:15 – End)

Panel’s Top Picks:

• Jason Snipe: ServiceNow (NOW) for AI-driven software strength and margin expansion.
• Amy Raskin: Regeneron (REGN), “lots of shots on goal, like it a lot here.”
• Jim Lebenthal: Cisco Systems (CSCO), rebounding after profit taking; near 52-week high.
• Stephanie Link: Truest (TFC), “still like the banks... especially the regionals.”

Memorable, Engaging Moments

• Jim Lebenthal [11:54]: "Nothing scares me. I'm a former nuclear submariner. There you go, your honor. Steely eyed killer of the deep. ... What I see is opportunity."
• Stephanie Link [16:00]: "We don’t have enough data centers guys. I’m sorry, we just don’t.”
• Amy Raskin [05:53]: “I think that 3 to 4 trillion number is crazy. I don't think we're ever going to get there. ... At some point that’s going to matter.”
• Scott Wapner [21:08]: “Now, Snowflake, you sound like a Cowboys fan today trying to be happy with a couple of first round picks…”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market and AI trade setup: 00:57 – 05:34
• Panel on AI & Semis: 05:35 – 10:46
• US-China AI export debate: 12:21 – 14:41
• Infrastructure/power stocks: 15:04 – 17:46
• Software winners/losers: 17:46 – 23:50
• Lisa Cook Fed court case/Rate cut debate: 23:51 – 27:19
• Retail (Deckers/Gap): 29:47 – 33:12
• Gaming (Wynn stock): 35:40 – 41:46
• Gold, Copper, Financials: 42:10 – 45:39
• Final trades: 46:15 – end

Episode Takeaways

• The AI trade has entered a phase of digestion; market leaders are increasingly differentiated by sustainable growth, margins, and business mix.
• Infrastructure and power remain crucial—there’s structural support for related stocks if investors can stomach volatility.
• The software sector is now a “show-me” story, with evidence required each quarter to justify premium multiples.
• Retail winners remain stock-specific, favoring brand momentum and international opportunity.
• Banks/financials are seeing capital rotate in, but valuations and market extension warrant caution.
• Federal Reserve policy and political interference loom large over rate outlook and market expectations for the fall.

For full context, listen to the podcast or catch the Halftime Report weekdays at 12 PM ET.