Hard Fork – Episode Summary

Australia Kicks Kids Off Social Media + Is the A.I. Water Issue Fake? + Hard Fork Wrapped

Date: December 12, 2025
Hosts: Kevin Roose (New York Times), Casey Newton (Platformer)
Guest: Andy Maisley (Director, Effective Altruism DC)

Overview

This episode tackles three major subjects shaping the tech world in late 2025:

1. Australia's new nationwide ban on social media for those under 16—a world-first policy for a major democracy.
2. The emerging skepticism about AI’s water usage and a myth-busting deep dive with blogger Andy Maisley.
3. A retrospective “Hard Fork Wrapped,” reviewing the show’s year, top stories, and broader trends in tech.

Throughout, the hosts maintain their signature mix of wit, skepticism, and accessible explanations, balancing deep dives with sharp banter.

1. Australia’s Social Media Ban for Under-16s

(Starts ~03:41)

Background and Policy Details

• Policy: As of this week, Australians under 16 are barred by law from creating accounts on ten leading social platforms (Facebook, Instagram, Threads, TikTok, Twitch, Snapchat, YouTube, X, Reddit, Kik).
• Verification: Age checks now require more than a dropdown menu; actual verification procedures (often video selfies) are enforced for all new users.
• Origins: Sparked by the premier's wife reading Jonathan Haidt’s The Anxious Generation and, less than a year later, the law passed with platforms having a year to comply.
• Notable Exclusions: Platforms like Roblox, Discord, and Minecraft are not covered—leading to industry critique that the law picks "winners and losers." Julie Inman Grant (E-Safety Commissioner) stated exceptions stemmed from those companies quickly improving their safety and age-check tech.

Quote:
"I think that this is the first domino to fall in a move that could reshape how we all use the Internet."
– Casey Newton [04:32]

Immediate Reactions & Implementation

• Platform responses: Companies are generally unhappy, with some accusing the law of being rushed and unfair (e.g. YouTube's concern about rushed implementation; Meta's critique of policies that allow YouTube a "logged out" experience).
• Teen reactions: Many teens created backup accounts with false birth dates, flocked to non-banned platforms, or even “rediscovered” exchanging phone numbers.

"Australian teens, in preparation for this ban, have been exchanging phone numbers with each other."
– Casey Newton [11:33]

Larger Implications: A Natural Experiment

• Educational and social effects: Concerns over potential lack of digital skills, missing out on connection and information, especially for marginalized youth.
• Mental health hopes: Lawmakers and supporters believe it could improve adolescent mental health by reducing exposure to harmful online dynamics.
• Comparisons: Hosts relate the change to US school phone bans—where dire warnings did not materialize and results have been largely positive.
• Research: Australia plans a longitudinal study to track the effects of the ban with results expected in years, but hosts predict other countries may enact similar laws even sooner.

Quotes:

"We are now setting up a really interesting natural experiment in what happens when you take social media away from children."
– Casey Newton [12:36]

"I just keep coming back to the argument that I never hear anyone make. You know what that argument is? Looking at Instagram is really good for your kid."
– Casey Newton [17:15]

• Predictions: Both hosts expect at least modest mental health improvements, but warn that effects may take 5-10 years to fully realize.
• International ripple: Denmark, Norway, and Malaysia are already pursuing similar bans.

Tone & Memorable Moments

• Kevin tries out a slurry of over-the-top Australian slang:

  "Some people are mad as a cut snake... the government's made a dog's breakfast of this policy..."
  [04:43]

  • (Casey: “Wow. I didn’t really get one word of that...”)

2. Is the AI Water Issue Fake? (with Andy Maisley)

(Starts ~22:58)

Why Is This a Story?

• Viral worry: Online memes and coverage suggest AI is putting unsustainable strain on global water supplies—“can you get out of the shower? I need the water for ChatGPT.”
• Andy Maisley’s Mission: Amateur analyst but tireless blogger, Maisley aims to debunk exaggerated statistics and "misconceptions" about how much water AI—and specifically chatbots—really use.

Debunking the Myths

• Prompt water usage is minimal:
  • The well-circulated claim that “each ChatGPT prompt uses a bottle of water” is traced to a single misinterpreted Washington Post article and is found to rely on out-of-date data and flawed assumptions.
  • Real figure from Google: each prompt uses ~0.26ml to 2ml of water (including indirect consumption)—i.e., 800,000 prompts are needed to increase daily water use by even 1%.
  • Context: Buying a pair of jeans = 2 million prompts’ worth of water.
  • For the typical individual, AI-related water use is insignificant compared to meat-eating, fashion, or even daily household leaks.

"I want to be able to at start by saying... let's look at the median prompt. And so... the average American's total daily water footprint... is about 800,000 times as much water as a [chatbot] prompt uses."
– Andy Maisley [29:25]

The Macro Picture: Industrial Data Center Use

• Scale context:
  • 2023 data puts total US data center water use equivalent to what eight small towns would use—not trivial but hardly catastrophic.
  • By 2030, expected to equal 1% of US irrigated corn acreage in water use.

"We should be about as worried about this as America's irrigated corn growing by about 1%."
– Andy Maisley [35:34]

• Relative priorities:
  • Water use by data centers is dwarfed by agriculture and other industrial users; even household leaks waste far more water.
  • Data centers can even help by providing local communities with utility revenue which improves infrastructure.

Are Other AI Environmental Impacts More Serious?

• Electricity use: This is not overblown—Maisley sees future AI-related electricity demand as a much bigger concern (set to increase by an order of magnitude), with documented negative effects like coal plants staying online.

"There's an order of magnitude difference there..."
– Andy Maisley [37:12]

• Caveats: While water use is “a distraction,” questions around energy, emissions, and labor require ongoing, nuanced scrutiny.

On Being (Mis)Used by AI Advocates

• Maisley is explicit: “not great” that AI boosters use his work as a pass to ignore environmental problems, or as a cudgel against environmentalists. His goal is honest context and prioritization.

Quote:
"I have worried about this a lot where I’m like, oh, I’m worried that I’m coming off on one strong side of this and just helping the pro-AI side, which I don’t really want to do, but I have to admit… the general understanding of this stuff is so bad."
– Andy Maisley [39:44]

Broader Point: Consent, Tradeoffs, and Community Impact

• Critiques that society didn’t ask for these AI build-outs are valid, but water use is not where opposition should focus.
• Other impacts (infrastructure strain, labor, surveillance) deserve more debate.
• AI data centers can have positive local economic effects but weigh these on a case-by-case basis.

Notable Quotes

• "If I make some allies with people who hate environmentalists, that's unfortunate. But I do want to get the message out there."
  – Andy Maisley [39:44]
• "If we shut down all AI data centers tomorrow, how much will this actually help America's water problems? ...It's not really going to make much of a dent compared to a lot of other issues."
  – Andy Maisley [43:08]

Segment End

• Andy: Likely to shift future writing to AI electricity use, labor issues, surveillance, and other AI impacts.

3. Hard Fork Wrapped: 2025 in Review

(Starts ~52:17)

Fun Stats & Show Reflections

• Show time: 3,524 minutes (~59 hours) released in 2025 alone.
• Audience: 1.4 million collective listening hours on Spotify (“That’s 160 years of continuous listening…”).
• Episodes: 52 aired, with more coming before year’s end.
• Demographic data: Average listening age is 35–45 (but “for the whole family”).
• Top artist among listeners: Taylor Swift.

Notable Storylines Recapped

AI Regulation of the Year

• Highlighted federal executive order by the Trump administration aiming to preempt (i.e., squash) state-level AI regulations, despite broad bipartisan resistance (“voted down 99 to 1 in the Senate”).
• Key concern: Feds want one-size-fits-all rules, but haven't detailed a workable national plan.

"The most enraging part of the AI regulation debate is... when people ask, okay, so what's your federal plan?... they basically just start, like, hemming and hawing and try to change the topic."
– Kevin Roose [58:27]

Other Country of the Year: China

• Why: The Deepseek R1 AI model’s (apparent) parity with US tech dominated early 2025 discourse.
• Also, regulatory intrigue over whether Nvidia can sell its H200 and Blackwell AI chips to Chinese companies—a policy relaxed by the Trump administration for a lucrative cut, even as questions loom about whether China will allow such imports.
• Deepseek reportedly smuggled advanced chips into China, underscoring the continuing US–China AI arms race.
• Quote:
  “This to me just feels like a complete victory for the Nvidia lobbying machine...”
  – Kevin Roose [64:44]

Most Podcasted About Podcast: The Roblox CEO Interview

• Why notable: Most listener response of the year; significant media fallout.
• Listeners appreciated the tough questions asked of CEO Dave Baszucki about child safety, which he seemed unprepared to answer.
• Parents wrote in, some deciding to ban Roblox at home due to the episode.

Quote:
“…He was just so defensive and so taken aback by our line of questioning… his team had been fully aware… I was just, I was sort of surprised and I guess I was encouraged by the feedback. …Doing journalism has consequences.”
– Kevin Roose [66:51]

Tone, Language, and Memorable Moments

• Banter: Joking, quick-witted, slightly self-deprecating. E.g., commentary on Spotify Wrapped, Australian slang, and giving each other grief over podcasting setup quirks.
• Meta moments: The hosts openly discuss their own demographics, fandom, and podcasting process (“Your listening age is estimated to be 35 to 45…” – Casey Newton [56:25]).
• On the Australian ban: Kevin and Casey trade friendly but incisive predictions, agree on long-run benefits, and poke fun at pro/anti arguments.
• On AI water use: Demystifying statistics, comparing it to other everyday habits, and repeatedly stressing context (e.g., “just don’t buy a pair of jeans if you’re worried”).
• On journalism: A sense of professional responsibility and a mission to foster real accountability, not soft PR.

Selected Timestamps for Key Segments

• Australia bans kids social media: [03:41]-[21:21]
• AI water use myth-busting (Andy Maisley interview): [22:58]-[50:12]
• Show stats, audience, “Hard Fork Wrapped,” news year-in-review: [52:17]-[72:08]
• Roblox CEO interview fallout: [65:43]-[71:40]

Standout Quotes & Moments by Timestamp

Australia Ban

• [04:32] Casey: “I think this is the first domino to fall in a move that could reshape how we all use the Internet.”
• [11:33]: “Australian teens… have been exchanging phone numbers with each other.”

AI Water Use

• [29:25] Andy: “...the average American's total daily water footprint... is about 800,000 times as much water as a [chatbot] prompt uses.”
• [35:34] Andy: “We should be about as worried about this as America's irrigated corn growing by about 1%.”

Roblox CEO Interview

• [66:51] Kevin: “Doing journalism has consequences. And I feel good about what we did and how we showed up that day.”
• [69:24] Casey: “The more you shy away from talking about something, probably the worse you're going to be at talking about it.”

Conclusion

The episode provided a sweeping overview of fast-moving tech stories with real-world impact. It blends news, policy analysis, and meta-commentary, all while making the data—and debates—accessible and human. Australia’s bold new social media law becomes a crucible for international copying and policy innovation. Myths about AI’s ecological impact are punctured with hard numbers and sly humor. And in their year-end look back, Casey and Kevin spotlight both absurdities and turning points—not just for tech, but for the social fabric shaped by it.