Hard Fork Podcast Summary: "Is Amazon's Drone Delivery Finally Ready for Prime Time?"

Host/Author: The New York Times
Episode Release Date: December 20, 2024
Duration: Approximately 65 minutes

Introduction

In this episode of Hard Fork, hosted by Kevin Roose and Casey Newton, the New York Times explores Amazon's ambitious drone delivery initiative, Amazon Prime Air. Set against the backdrop of Phoenix, Arizona—a significant testing ground due to its favorable weather conditions—the hosts delve into whether Amazon's drone technology is poised for mainstream adoption.

Setting the Scene: Phoenix, Arizona

Kevin and Casey introduce listeners to Phoenix, highlighting its role as a hub for technological experimentation. Casey shares personal anecdotes about his time working at the Arizona Republic, establishing a connection to the location.

• Casey Noon [00:40]: "We are here in beautiful Phoenix, Arizona, in a part of town that is known as by the airport."

Kevin emphasizes Phoenix's strategic importance for tech companies like Waymo and Amazon, noting its consistent weather as ideal for year-round testing.

• Kevin Roose [01:03]: "Phoenix has become like the kind of testing ground for a lot of our great technology companies... these drones we're about to see are here."

Tour of Amazon's Prime Air Facility

The hosts are granted access to Amazon's Prime Air facility in Phoenix, where they meet David Carbon, Vice President and General Manager of Amazon Prime Air.

• David Carbon [04:50]: "You're one of the first. Thank you."

The facility, though modest by Amazon standards, buzzes with activity as packages are prepared for drone delivery. Kevin and Casey observe the streamlined process, from order placement to package handling.

• Casey Noon [02:21]: "This week we're in Arizona to test out Amazon Prime Air, the company's initiative to deliver items to your door in 60 minutes or less via a flying drone."

Understanding the Drone Delivery Process

David Carbon provides an in-depth explanation of how Amazon's drone delivery system operates within the existing fulfillment network. The process mirrors traditional deliveries until the final packaging stage, where orders designated for drone delivery are placed in specialized boxes.

• David Carbon [06:07]: "And then we'll walk you through that. But the only difference when we get to the end is rather than them put your order into a bag or into an envelope, they put it into a Prime Air box, which we use to put inside the drone."

The hosts witness the packaging process, noting the unique features of the Prime Air boxes, such as a hidden floor that acts as a cushioning "trampoline" to protect diverse items during delivery.

• David Carbon [07:22]: "So that has the cushion at the bottom."

Drone Technology and Operations

Kevin and Casey are introduced to the MK30, Block 10 drones—comparable in size to a Labrador retriever and equipped with advanced sensing and navigation systems.

• David Carbon [08:42]: "It's got a hidden floor. Right. So you think there's probably about, you know."

The team observes a drone takeoff, highlighting its autonomous operations and redundant safety systems designed to prevent failures.

• David Carbon [11:13]: "We treat them well. They've got no reason not to come back."

Despite initial impressions of noise, David counters that the latest drones are significantly quieter—40% less loud than their predecessors.

• David Carbon [12:35]: "I have to say, it's quite loud when it's coming down and taking off. ... We're 40% quieter than the previous drone."

Demonstration: Placing and Receiving a Drone Delivery

After a facility tour, Kevin and Casey proceed to a rented suburban house to test a drone delivery. They place an order for Brazilian Bum Bum Cream, entering the delivery specifications via Amazon's Prime Air system.

• Kevin Roose [19:58]: "So it's a pretty standard Amazon checkout process, except for this sort of delivery area thing."

The drone successfully delivers the package within the promised time frame, demonstrating the system's efficacy.

• Kevin Roose [44:35]: "It did not touch down and just drop."

Casey humorously refers to the item as a "Christmas present," highlighting the personal nature of the demonstration.

• Casey Noon [46:07]: "All right. And what do you know, our Brazilian bum bum cream."

Interview with David Carbon: Challenges and Future Plans

Public Perception and Community Reactions

The episode addresses public concerns regarding drone deliveries, especially incidents on the East Coast where unauthorized drones caused alarm.

• Kevin Roose [20:59]: "Are those Amazon drones?"
• David Carbon [21:04]: "They are absolutely not Amazon drones."

David emphasizes the importance of integrating drones responsibly into airspace and adhering to aerospace regulations to mitigate public nuisance and safety concerns.

• David Carbon [22:15]: "People don't like nuisance."

Technological Hurdles and FAA Regulations

David discusses the complex interplay between hardware development and regulatory compliance, asserting that technological readiness was the primary barrier rather than FAA restrictions.

• David Carbon [26:27]: "Within the US Regulation isn't the holdup. The reality is nobody was really ready to go and execute deliveries at any form of scale."

He touches upon past incidents, including a 2021 crash that caused a brush fire, explaining these as controlled tests essential for enhancing drone safety.

• David Carbon [28:46]: "It's test, right? So if you test for failure, you get failure and you test in controlled environments."

Safety Mechanisms and Collision Avoidance

David outlines the drone's advanced sensing and avoidance algorithms, designed to prevent collisions with static objects, airplanes, and even birds.

• David Carbon [30:08]: "Our algorithms, our sense and avoid algorithm, and our perception algorithm is trained over hundreds of thousands of data sets."

He reassures listeners of the drone's ability to autonomously abort missions if unexpected obstacles are detected.

• David Carbon [33:02]: "But, you know, if they see something dynamically happening that the drone isn't seeing, which, you know, frankly is 0.0% or nothing, that's not going to happen."

Security Concerns and Theft Prevention

Addressing fears of drone tampering and package theft, David explains that deliveries are made to backyards, reducing the risk of porch piracy. Additionally, the precise delivery timing allows recipients to retrieve packages promptly.

• David Carbon [34:00]: "So we just drop it."

Economic Viability and Scaling

When questioned about the profitability of drone deliveries, David emphasizes Amazon's long-term investment strategy, projecting that drone deliveries will become cost-effective as the system scales.

• David Carbon [35:58]: "Our models show that at the end of the day, when we say by 2029, we want to deliver 500 million deliveries, we're cost positive because you can't deliver packages indefinitely at a loss."

He highlights the projected scale of deliveries and the incremental improvements planned for 2025 and beyond.

• David Carbon [53:26]: "2025, there's a bunch of announcements going to come out. We've got features coming on board, we've got multi product ordering..."

Community Interactions and Reactions

During the delivery demonstration, neighbors and golfers react to the drones, showcasing varied public perceptions—from curiosity to surprise.

• Neighbor Gino [47:20]: "I'm from Amazon."

This segment underscores the novelty of drone deliveries and the initial skepticism often associated with new technologies.

Environmental Impact

Casey raises concerns about the environmental footprint of drone deliveries. David counters by highlighting the drones' recyclable materials and electric power sources, positioning drone delivery as a greener alternative to traditional van-based deliveries.

• David Carbon [41:57]: "It's a battery powered which not emitting anything along the way. And so really right now... it's the most environmentally conscious way of delivering."

Conclusion and Future Outlook

David reiterates Amazon's commitment to scaling drone deliveries globally, aiming for 500 million packages per year by 2029. He envisions expanding beyond Phoenix to international markets, including Italy and the UK, and introducing nighttime and low-light deliveries by 2026.

• David Carbon [53:26]: "What we're all talking about... it's just the beginning."

Kevin and Casey reflect on the transformative potential of drone deliveries, acknowledging the mixed public reactions but expressing optimism about future acceptance as the technology becomes more commonplace.

Closing Remarks

The episode concludes with festive banter and a tech-themed Christmas carol, reinforcing the hosts' lighthearted approach to discussing advanced technologies.

• Kevin Roose [59:54]: "Happy holidays."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Casey Noon [02:21]: "We are here in Arizona to test out Amazon's latest and possibly craziest way of getting goods to customers. Drones."

• David Carbon [06:13]: "We'll put your order into a Prime Air box, which we use to put inside the drone, and the drone then delivers to the house."

• David Carbon [12:35]: "We work really hard on the type of sound of the drone to bring it into modulation that people can actually appreciate."

• David Carbon [22:15]: "People don't like nuisance."

• David Carbon [26:27]: "Within the US Regulation isn't the holdup. The reality is nobody was really ready to go and execute deliveries at any form of scale."

• David Carbon [35:58]: "When we say by 2029, we want to deliver 500 million deliveries, we're cost positive because you can't deliver packages indefinitely at a loss."

Final Thoughts

This episode of Hard Fork provides a comprehensive look into Amazon's Prime Air, shedding light on the technological advancements, operational strategies, and challenges faced in bringing drone deliveries to the mainstream. Through firsthand observation and insightful interviews, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the future landscape of package delivery.

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