Hard Fork: Episode Summary - "Our 2025 Tech Predictions and Resolutions + We Answer Your Questions"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Hard Fork
• Host: Kevin Roose and Casey Newton, The New York Times
• Episode: Our 2025 Tech Predictions and Resolutions + We Answer Your Questions
• Release Date: January 3, 2025
• Description: "Hard Fork" delves into the present tech landscape, exploring recent advancements and their implications. In this episode, hosts Kevin Roose and Casey Newton review their 2024 tech predictions, assess their accuracy, forecast new trends for 2025, and address listener questions.

Introduction

Kevin Roose: "[02:00] All right. Well, Casey, happy New Year."

Casey Newton: "[02:04] Happy New Year to you, Kevin. I know last year was very dramatic and stressful. There were some terrible things that happened. There were some great things that happened. But what I can tell you is 2025 is going to be different."

The episode begins with a reflective tone, acknowledging the highs and lows of 2024 while setting an optimistic outlook for 2025.

Reviewing 2024 Predictions

High Confidence Predictions

Casey's Prediction: Threads Overtaking X in Daily Active Users

Casey's Analysis:

Casey Newton: "[03:18] My first prediction for 2024 was that Threads would overtake X, the former Twitter, in daily active users."

Casey discusses the significant growth of Threads, highlighting its 275 million monthly users and its rise to the second spot in the US App Store rankings. However, due to X (formerly Twitter) becoming a private company, exact user numbers remain elusive.

Casey Newton: "[05:43] And again, to me, the larger question is, like, is X going down and another platform coming up? And I think the answer is basically yes."

She emphasizes the shifting dynamics in social media usage, indicating a decline for X and an ascent for new platforms like Threads.

Kevin's Counterpoint:

Kevin Roose: "[05:24] I think that it has been a big year for Threads and Blue Sky, another X competitor, but I think that X is still very relevant."

Kevin expresses skepticism about the exact user numbers and the real cultural impact of Threads compared to X, noting that while Threads is growing, X maintains its relevance in broader cultural contexts.

Kevin's Prediction: Lawless LLMs Reaching 10 Million Daily Active Users

Kevin's Analysis:

Kevin Roose: "[07:06] So my high confidence prediction from last year was that a lawless LLM large language model would get to 10 million daily active users."

Kevin reflects on his prediction about less regulated large language models (LLMs) gaining substantial user bases. He acknowledges the challenges in verifying user numbers due to limited transparency from companies like Meta.

Kevin Roose: "[08:24] So I think that in the absence of better data, this one was also a bust."

He concedes that his prediction did not materialize as expected, primarily due to unreliable data sources.

Medium Confidence Predictions

Casey's Prediction: Google Catching Up to OpenAI's ChatGPT

Casey's Analysis:

Casey Newton: "[08:27] And I sort of think it was wrong. ChatGPT's lack of a giant distribution channel like the Google search bar didn't actually matter that much. This was a year where ChatGPT's reputation as like the chatbot that everyone uses just grew and grew."

Casey anticipated that Google's advancements in AI would rival OpenAI's ChatGPT, potentially neutralizing its lead. However, she observes that ChatGPT maintained its dominance in public consciousness and widespread usage.

Kevin's Agreement:

Kevin Roose: "[10:01] Google may have caught up to OpenAI in some of the benchmarks... but ChatGPT is still the industry leader when it comes to how widely referenced it is in the culture."

Kevin concurs, emphasizing that despite Google's technical advancements, ChatGPT remains the more culturally pervasive AI chatbot.

Kevin's Prediction: White-Collar Workers Unionizing Against AI Job Loss

Kevin's Analysis:

Kevin Roose: "[11:53] My medium confidence prediction last year was that white collar workers would start unionizing to fight AI related job loss."

Kevin reflects on his anticipation of union movements within white-collar sectors as a response to AI-driven job displacement. However, he acknowledges that this trend did not emerge as expected in 2024.

Casey's Reflection:

Casey Newton: "[12:27] Well, Kevin, I don't think it was a bad prediction. I just think you might have been a little bit early on that one."

Casey suggests that while the prediction didn't pan out in 2024, it may still hold relevance for the future.

Low Confidence Predictions

Casey's Prediction: Apple Vision Pro Reviving Mixed Reality and the Metaverse

Casey's Analysis:

Casey Newton: "[12:46] ... I think it was wrong, but I have a couple of things I would say in my favor... Apple Vision Pro wasn't a hit in the mainstream sense."

Casey expected Apple's Vision Pro to significantly boost interest in mixed reality and the Metaverse. While it achieved modest sales, it did not catalyze a widespread revival of these technologies as anticipated.

Kevin's Agreement:

Kevin Roose: "[14:46] The Metaverse is definitely on hiatus right now, but mixed reality I do think is poised to continue kind of creeping into our lives."

Kevin acknowledges the limited success of the Vision Pro but concurs that mixed reality will continue to integrate into daily life gradually.

Kevin's Prediction: Elon Musk Initiating a J.D. Vance Dossier Scandal Similar to Hunter Biden Laptop

Kevin's Analysis:

Kevin Roose: "[14:46] ... a document, some called it a dossier, about J.D. Vance. That was hacke the Trump campaign... Sam Altman was banned for posting links to this dossier."

Kevin predicted a controversy resembling the Hunter Biden laptop scandal, involving the suppression of sensitive information on X (formerly Twitter). This unfolded as anticipated, with the J.D. Vance dossier causing political uproar and censorship debates on the platform.

Casey's Confirmation:

Casey Newton: "[16:13] Yes. It also goes against everything he said about how he was going to run this platform with complete neutrality."

Casey affirms the accuracy of Kevin's prediction, highlighting the discrepancy between Musk's promises of neutrality and the platform's actions.

New Predictions for 2025

High Confidence Predictions

Casey's Prediction: AI Culture War

Casey's Analysis:

Casey Newton: "[17:04] I think that this year the AI culture war is gonna begin."

Casey anticipates heightened political and cultural conflicts surrounding AI technologies. She foresees debates over AI biases, algorithmic neutrality, and the societal impacts of integrated AI systems, potentially leading to congressional hearings and polarized public opinions.

Kevin's Agreement:

Kevin Roose: "[18:51] And like Jim Jordan, like yelling about it... this is a good high confidence prediction."

Kevin supports the prediction, envisioning significant legislative and cultural discussions about AI's role and regulation.

Kevin's Prediction: Crypto Meme Coin Reaching $100 Billion Market Cap

Kevin's Analysis:

Kevin Roose: "[19:25] So my high confidence prediction for 2025 is that a newly released crypto meme coin, will briefly reach $100 billion in market cap before crashing."

Inspired by the rapid surge and subsequent crash of similar coins, Kevin predicts another speculative bubble in the crypto meme space, driven by increased gambling-like behaviors and a potentially favorable regulatory environment under the Trump administration.

Casey's Support:

Casey Newton: "[21:17] I think there are a lot of people going to take that as a signal to try everything they can to cash in."

Casey agrees, noting the alignment of speculative interests with evolving regulatory landscapes.

Medium Confidence Predictions

Casey's Prediction: Waymo Going Mainstream

Casey's Analysis:

Casey Newton: "[21:20] ... Waymo goes mainstream... you'll see more of these cars in more big urban centers."

Casey expects autonomous vehicles from Waymo to gain widespread acceptance and visibility in major cities, becoming a cultural phenomenon and integrating into everyday life.

Kevin's Reflection:

Kevin Roose: "[22:24] ... the real mainstream spur for Waymo will be when it goes to New York City... People there just genuinely do not understand how many waymos there are on the streets of San Francisco."

Kevin suggests that deployment in media-centric locations like New York City would significantly boost Waymo's mainstream presence.

Kevin's Prediction: Apple Acquiring Snap

Kevin's Analysis:

Kevin Roose: "[23:14] My medium confidence prediction for 2025 is that Apple will acquire Snap."

Kevin forecasts Apple acquiring Snap (Snapchat) to bolster its social media portfolio and integrate Snap's technologies with Apple's ecosystem, particularly in light of their mutual interests in privacy and innovative user experiences.

Casey's Consideration:

Casey Newton: "[25:42] But all that said, can I see it happening? Sure, sure."

Casey acknowledges the strategic fit but also highlights potential challenges, such as privacy concerns and Snap's struggling business model.

Low Confidence Predictions

Casey's Prediction: X (formerly Twitter) Merged into xai (Elon Musk's AI Company)

Casey's Analysis:

Casey Newton: "[25:44] ... X, the former Twitter, will be merged into xai."

Casey speculates that Elon Musk might consolidate X with his AI ventures to leverage social media data for AI training, enhancing the synergy between platforms.

Kevin's Skepticism:

Kevin Roose: "[26:13] ... X does not really have a product yet... that's wild to me..."

Kevin questions the practicality and immediate benefits of such a merger, considering operational differences and Musk's management style.

Kevin's Prediction: OpenAI Declaring AGI Achievement

Kevin's Analysis:

Kevin Roose: "[28:26] My low confidence prediction for 2025 is that at some point during the year, OpenAI will officially declare that they have achieved AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence."

Kevin anticipates that OpenAI might declare the achievement of AGI to alter its partnership dynamics with Microsoft, potentially exiting their current deal. This move would signify a major milestone in AI development.

Casey's Counterpoint:

Casey Newton: "[31:02] ... OpenAI and Microsoft still need each other."

Casey argues that the interdependency between OpenAI and Microsoft makes such a declaration unlikely in the near term.

New Year's Resolutions

Kevin's Resolution: Be the Poster He Wishes to See in the World

Kevin's Reflection:

Kevin Roose: "[34:15] Be the poster I wish to see in the world."

Having reduced his social media presence over the past year, Kevin aims to actively contribute positive and engaging content. He seeks to balance responsible posting with authentic interactions, preparing for potential backlash while fostering meaningful digital engagement.

Casey's Support:

Casey Newton: "[46:18] Absolutely."

Casey encourages Kevin's intentions, recognizing the importance of active and thoughtful participation in social media to influence conversations positively.

Casey's Resolution: Become Medium-Good at Meditation Using AI

Casey's Reflection:

Casey Newton: "[37:18] I would like to get medium good at meditation using AI."

Facing burnout, Casey plans to use AI tools like chatbots to guide her meditation practice. She values the interactive coaching aspect of AI, which helps her refine her techniques and maintain consistency in her well-being efforts.

Kevin's Encouragement:

Kevin Roose: "[43:13] It's important to find those chatbot use cases where it's not mission critical, and yet it can provide you this meaningful help."

Kevin shares his positive experiences using AI for self-improvement, supporting Casey's approach to integrating technology into personal wellness.

Listener Questions and Answers

VPN Usage Concerns

Listener Ann Lachey: "[53:43] ... how many people are using VPNs? Is it mostly for downloading movies, music media without having to pay? Is it for gambling?"

Casey's Response:

Casey Newton: "[54:33] ... the primary reason that people use VPNs is to get around geographical restrictions on what kind of media they can consume."

Casey explains that VPNs are widely used for legitimate purposes like accessing restricted content, enhancing privacy, and securing connections on public Wi-Fi. She also acknowledges their increased use in authoritarian regimes to bypass censorship.

Are You Guys Using AI to Produce the Podcast?

Listener Bob Flint: "[56:07] ... how do I know that you guys aren't bots?"

Kevin and Casey's Response:

Kevin Roose: "[57:55] ... a thing that I am starting to hear is that people are sort of getting suspicious of podcasts that sound too much like the NotebookLM podcast."

They address concerns humorously, clarifying that while AI tools exist for voice cloning and content generation, their podcast maintains a human touch with dedicated team members ensuring authentic interactions.

AI Image Generators Failing to Depict "Loon in a Bathtub"

Listener Raphael Holmes: "[57:08] ... trying to show my octogenarian dad the wonders of generative AI and his request to draw a loon in a bathtub."

Casey's Explanation:

Casey Newton: "[61:17] ... it's a classic case of asking a model to do something that it is not well suited to."

She explains that AI image generators struggle with rare or unconventional requests due to limited training data, leading to disproportionate or inaccurate depictions.

Kevin's Insight:

Kevin Roose: "[62:09] ... if two or more objects do not frequently appear together in the training data, it may not sort of understand the proportions."

Kevin elaborates on the technical limitations, noting that contextual and proportional accuracy remains a challenge for AI models.

Data Sources for Training AI

Listener Asa Strong and Ben Stone: "[59:16] ... do they want satellite data? Are they using data from home assistance and security cameras?"

Casey's Insight:

Casey Newton: "[63:37] ... they want all the data that they can handle. Video data is becoming increasingly popular as it helps AI understand motion and depth."

She highlights the growing demand for diverse and dynamic data sources, particularly video, to enhance AI's contextual and analytical capabilities.

Kevin's Addition:

Kevin Roose: "[64:42] ... there's a lot of stuff that hasn't been digitized. Going into libraries and archives to digitize new sources is becoming a focus."

Kevin adds that digitization efforts in libraries are crucial for providing fresh and comprehensive data sets for AI training.

Security and Voice Cloning Technology

Listener Mitzi: "[65:52] ... both of my investment institutions use voice verification to ID customers on the phone. Is this secure in the era of AI?"

Casey's Advice:

Casey Newton: "[65:57] ... no, you're not being paranoid. Tell your bank to knock that off."

She strongly advises against using voice as a sole authentication method due to the advancements in AI that make voice cloning feasible and potentially malicious.

Kevin's Confirmation:

Kevin Roose: "[66:25] ... these systems are not secure and it is very easy to clone someone's voice using just a small snippet of audio."

Kevin reinforces the security risks, citing real-world incidents where AI-generated voices have been used to breach accounts.

Ethical Dilemmas: Misusing Streaming Accounts

Listener Dylan: "[66:28] ... someone I was dating left their HBO Max account logged into my computer. I ended up binge-watching House of Dragon. Was that wrong?"

Casey's Lighthearted Response:

Casey Newton: "[66:52] ... it was wrong to watch the second season of House of Dragon if you'd watch the first season because it was really bad."

She humorously addresses the ethical nuances, distinguishing between passive viewing and active misuse of account credentials.

Kevin's Reflection:

Kevin Roose: "[67:12] ... it's the victimless crime. And in fact, I, I've heard of people continuing to voluntarily split accounts with Ex's app after they break up."

Kevin discusses the broader implications, suggesting that ethical boundaries depend on intent and the nature of account usage.

Conclusion

Kevin Roose: "[73:28] Hard Fork is produced by Whitney Jones and Rachel Cohn... You can email us as always@hardforknytimes.com."

The episode wraps up with acknowledgments to the production team, encouragement to listen on various platforms, and a nod to upcoming segments.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Casey Newton: "[03:00] ... we are going to check in our predictions and see what we got wrong and if we got anything right."
• Kevin Roose: "[04:37] ... in the absence of better data, this one was also a bust."
• Casey Newton: "[16:51] ... the AI culture war is gonna begin."
• Kevin Roose: "[19:25] ... a newly released crypto meme coin, will briefly reach $100 billion in market cap before crashing."

This summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting the critical evaluations of past predictions, the foresight into future tech trends, personal resolutions, and insightful responses to listener inquiries. The blend of professional analysis and personal anecdotes provides a comprehensive overview for both dedicated listeners and newcomers alike.