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Tim Cook’s Legacy + The Future of U.B.I. With Andrew Yang + HatGPT
01:14:39
The highlights, the lowlights, and how Apple changed in the years since Tim Cook took over as chief executive.
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- [00:00]
Kevin Roose
When I found out I was going to be a parent, I immediately felt
- [00:03]
Casey Newton
a lot of anxiety and worry.
- [00:05]
Kevin Roose
So I went on to BetterHelp to
- [00:07]
Casey Newton
try to look for a therapist to
- [00:08]
Kevin Roose
help me with that.
- [00:09]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
My relationship with my family and with my boyfriend and with myself were suffering.
- [00:14]
Casey Newton
I really needed help.
- [00:15]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
I was ruminating a lot. Really getting those thoughts out to a therapist and getting feedback was just life changing.
- [00:23]
Kevin Roose
Discover what BetterHelp online therapy can do for you and visit betterhelp.com today. I'm going to Disney World this weekend.
- [00:35]
Casey Newton
You are?
- [00:36]
Kevin Roose
Yes.
- [00:37]
Casey Newton
That's very exciting. Have you been to Disney World before?
- [00:39]
Kevin Roose
No, I've never been to Disney World before.
- [00:41]
Casey Newton
That is very exciting.
- [00:42]
Kevin Roose
And so I have been looking up facts about. I'm a real like facts dad. I like to read the signs. I like to have this.
- [00:49]
Casey Newton
Yeah, our fact checker would disagree with that statement, but go on.
- [00:54]
Kevin Roose
And the most interesting thing that I learned about Disney World is the entire Magic Kingdom is elevated off ground level. And the first floor is all of these tunnels that, like, the workers use to come and go and move stuff around. So you are literally on the second floor.
- [01:10]
Casey Newton
That is great news, because my understanding is that all of Florida is sinking into the ocean, and so I feel like that'll buy them some time.
- [01:18]
Kevin Roose
I'm thinking about pivoting to becoming, like, a Disney adult. What do you think about that?
- [01:22]
Casey Newton
It's so funny that you mention this, because I went to Disneyland in. In December for the first time in over a decade, and I had so much fun that my fiance and I went back to Disneyland this most recent weekend with his family.
- [01:36]
Kevin Roose
No.
- [01:37]
Casey Newton
And I thought, how many times can you go to Disneyland in one year before you just become a de facto Disney adult? And I think the answer is two, which means I think I am a Disney adult now. Yeah. Yes.
- [01:47]
Kevin Roose
I love it.
- [01:47]
Casey Newton
Who knew?
- [01:48]
Kevin Roose
I did not predict this for you.
- [01:49]
Casey Newton
Well, I didn't either, and it's disturbing. This is great. Oh, I can't wait to hear about your Disney experience. This feels like a new. Like, maybe this is something we could do together as friends. Just head down to D World.
- [02:02]
Kevin Roose
Is that what you call. Is that what the Disney delts call it?
- [02:03]
Casey Newton
Yeah, it's one of the codes you hear on the walkie talkies. I'm Kevin Roos, a tech columnist at
- [02:12]
Kevin Roose
the New York Times.
- [02:13]
Casey Newton
I'm Casey Newton from Platformer, and this is hard Fork this week, Diva down. Tim Cook is stepping down as CEO of Apple. What did he get right and what did he get wrong? Then Andrew Yang is here to discuss his early bet on AI taking Jobs and why Universal Basic Income may be making a comeback. And finally, hats off for some hat GPT.
- [02:46]
Kevin Roose
Well, Kasey, the big news this week is that Apple CEO Tim Cook is stepping down.
- [02:51]
Casey Newton
Yeah, it is a really momentous occasion. In the history of technology, Apple does not change CEOs all that often. And Tim Cook, while we both have a lot to say about him, I think undoubtedly just had an extraordinary run as a public company CEO.
- [03:06]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. So Apple announced this leadership transition on Monday. Tim Cook is going to step into a new role as Executive chairman. He's not leaving entirely, but John Ternus, Apple's senior vice vice president of hardware engineering and a longtime Apple guy, will become the next CEO. This is obviously not a company that has had a lot of CEOs. They tend to stick around and promote from within. And so I think this is about, as expected, a leadership transition as you could get. There have been rumors and reports that Cook was considering retiring for many months, but this made it official. And today we should talk about, like, what Tim Cook's legacy is, the highlights, the lowlights. How has Apple changed in the years since he took over as CEO? And what do we expect out of John Ternus, the new guy?
- [03:54]
Casey Newton
Yeah, lots of dive into.
- [03:56]
Kevin Roose
So let's talk about some numbers here, because I think Tim Cook's run at Apple is going to be remembered for just the overall growth that the company has experienced under his leadership. Since he stepped into the CEO role in 2011, Apple's market cap has grown from $350 billion to around $4 trillion. So a 10x multiple there. Its yearly revenue nearly quadrupled. Its stock price has gone up roughly 2000%. And a lot of the products that Tim Cook has overseen have been, I would say, surprising hits.
- [04:30]
Casey Newton
Yes. And I think this is like, if you want to be intellectually honest about Tim Cook's Apple, you have to talk about this particular dimension, because I think the knock on Tim Cook was, well, he's not a product guy. He doesn't know how to launch new product categories. But you look at the past 15 years, and he actually did. Yes.
- [04:49]
Kevin Roose
So I think the biggest thing that he will be known for as a new device or as a new platform in his legacy is the Apple Watch, which I am wearing. You are wearing. I mean, everyone has an Apple Watch now. And I remember when the Apple Watch came out, there was this moment of like, oh, Apple's cooked. Like, they can no longer innovate. This thing is obviously not going to work. This is just a gadget for luxury users and this is not going to sort of be. Be useful enough for many people to shell out for. And then I think Tim Cook, to his credit, saw that health was taking off, that people wanted to track their steps. They wanted to know if their blood oxygen levels were changing or if their heartbeat was irregular. They wanted to have fall detection. And I think he really saw that as the way to bring the Apple Watch to the mainstream. And it worked like it is a huge category now. And I think it is genuinely the best thing that they have launched under Cook's tenure.
- [05:48]
Casey Newton
Yeah. Where I would give him credit was that when the version of the Apple Watch came out, it wasn't entirely clear that it was a health product. Like, it sort of had maybe one or two features in there, but Apple had to iterate on it over time. And like that is what a great CEO does. Right along with your users, you figure out what your own products are for and how to make more of the stuff that people want and do less of the stuff that they don't want. And so I think the Apple Watch is just the best example of Tim Cook doing that during his tenure.
- [06:12]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. And other Tim Cook success stories. On the hardware side, AirPods obviously became a big deal during his tenure as CEO. I think this Apple silicon bet that he made and oversaw was probably their most lasting success. They brought their chip design in house. They sort of weaned themselves away from intel as their primary chip provider. And I think that is underrated as a thing that they did. That was risky, but that has paid off for them in a major way. They control their chip destiny now in a way that they did not when they were reliant on Intel. And it has given them the ability to like, design custom chips like the M1.
- [06:50]
Casey Newton
Yeah. And now intel is partially owned by the government because that's how badly it went for them after Apple started making its own chips. So, yeah, great for Apple, not great for Intel.
- [07:00]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. So there are also some successes on the services side of Apple's business. They have grown in places like Apple tv. They now own a big, you know, major Hollywood studio, Apple Pay, Apple music. These are now something like $100 billion business for them. And I think there have been some mixed successes on that side too. I don't think they have secured the software dominance that they had hoped to and it's caused them a lot of problems for things like antitrust. So I think his legacy will be a little more mixed when it comes to software and services, but still, obviously a strong growth for them.
- [07:36]
Casey Newton
Yeah, this is one where I think my view is a little bit more mixed, because on one hand, yes, this was like an unqualified success financially, but this is also the sort of stuff Apple started to do undercook, that I think undermined the love that people have for the company, because it seemed like with every passing year, there was another app on your iPhone that Apple was asking you to pay an annual subscription for. And I do think that some of these services really did distort the market. You know, when Apple decided that they were going to get into music and they were going to be able to compete on unfair terms because all the other music streamers had to pay them a significant percentage of their revenue just to be on the App Store, and Apple didn't have to do that. Spotify freaked out so much, they said, well, I guess we're going to have to own the entire podcast market and also start selling audiobooks. And so decisions like that that Cook made wound up having these huge ripples throughout industry that I actually do not think were positive overall.
- [08:31]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, I think that's a very fair point, and I think that's a piece where maybe Cook could have done a little better during his tenure. What else do you think Tim Cook did? Well?
- [08:39]
Casey Newton
Well, I think that it really is notable how successfully Apple was able to avoid scandal under his tenure. You know, CEOs rarely get credit for the things that don't happen under them. But, like, look at the problems that, like, Facebook slash Meta had over the past 15 years. Look at the issues that Google had to deal with with various employee revolts about, you know, a number of different things. Tim Cook, like, oversaw some labor struggles. The company's been accused of union busting, but, like, for the most part, there was never any giant, gnarly scandal that Apple had to address under his tenure. With, of course, the one exception in 2014 when they put the new U2 album on everyone's icloud account. But other than that, I think Tim Cook really kept his nose clean.
- [09:29]
Kevin Roose
Wait, that was a. That was a Tim Cook thing?
- [09:30]
Casey Newton
That was. Yeah, that happened years into his tenure, and that rascal Bono convinced him to put Songs of Innocence into the hands of something like 500 million people. What's your favorite song off Songs of Innocence, by the way?
- [09:44]
Kevin Roose
I have, like, that album has started autoplaying in my car so many times over the years, so that that album became very well known, but not for perhaps the reason that Bono thought, yeah, no, I think this is a good point. Not a lot of major scandals. I think at a time when mistrust in big tec tech is quite high and rising, I think that Cook managed to keep Apple kind of above the fray and I think has done a remarkable job of becoming sort of the. The most trusted name in tech, which is not saying much.
- [10:18]
Casey Newton
It's like a little bit of a.
- [10:21]
Kevin Roose
Of a mixed compliment. But I think people still do trust Apple in part because of the privacy stuff that they've done under Cook's leadership.
- [10:28]
Casey Newton
Yeah. And like, for what it's worth, like, you could see how this could have gone badly for that. Like, think about all, you know, the screen time debates that we had over the past 15, that all of the issues that people have with all the social media companies, like, some of that could have come back on Apple. People could have gone after Apple and said, hey, why are you letting all these apps in your app stores? Why aren't you developing, like, real screen time controls and parental controls? And all that stuff just slid right off them.
- [10:50]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. Okay, let's talk about some of the lowlights of Tim Cook's tenure. Casey.
- [10:54]
Casey Newton
Or as one unknown member of our staff wrote in our prep document, okay, now let's talk some shit about this diva.
- [11:02]
Kevin Roose
That was actually a quote from you in the editorial meeting.
- [11:08]
Casey Newton
Oh, okay. Because I read that and I was like, ooh, I like the attitude. I didn't realize I was just being quoted there.
- [11:15]
Kevin Roose
All right, Casey, what are the lowlights of Tim Cook's tenure at Apple?
- [11:18]
Casey Newton
Yeah, so there are a few that always come up. Number one is probably that under Cook, Apple just became hugely dependent on China to do its manufacturing, which, to be clear, for most of the time that he worked at Apple was a boon to the company. They built this supply chain that was the envy of the industry. They were able to, to create these just in time processes, essentially creating iPhones soon after they were ordered so they didn't have a bunch of inventory, like, lingering and losing value. And so, like, the logistics were just very good. Like a new iPhone came out. And even though millions and millions of people would want them, you could still get yours within a couple of weeks and relatively affordably, I would argue, you know, based on what you get out of, you know, a phone that you own for maybe four or five years. So all of that was really, really great. And then geopolitics change, Right. And the United States and China started to have a much more content relationship. Donald Trump takes office, becomes obsessed with the idea of tariffs and all of a sudden this becomes this huge vulnerability for Cook because now his entire supply chain is located in this country that is an adversary of the United States and where these massive tariffs are being threatened. And so that required Cook to kind of contort himself into various unflattering shapes in order to preserve the logistics network that he had lovingly crafted.
- [12:39]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, I think that's true. And it's, it's not easy to pivot once you have sort of established a dependency like that. They've been trying, they've been trying to like spread their manufacturing around to Vietnam and other countries, but it's just really hard once you have kind of gotten addicted to the efficiency of that supply chain.
- [12:57]
Casey Newton
Yes. Talking shit about this diva. Item number two, the Titan project. So the Titan project was Apple's $10 billion effort to build a self driving car, which I think was instinctively something that honest a lot of people really wanted. Right. Like when I heard that Apple was building a car, like, I definitely wanted to see it, I definitely wanted to test drive it. I definitely wanted to see if Songs of Innocence would autoplay when I turned the key in the ignition. But they canceled the project in 2024. And I'm curious what you make of their misadventures in automobiles.
- [13:34]
Kevin Roose
I mean, I think this was a big miss for Apple. I think they spent, you know, a ton of money, reportedly more than $10 billion trying a self driving car. It never got there even to the point that they were like, I just found it notable that they never even got to a prototype.
- [13:51]
Casey Newton
Yeah.
- [13:51]
Kevin Roose
It was not like they came out with something or at least like mocked up something and people didn't like it. It was like they, they didn't even get over the first hurdle of building something that actually worked. And I think maybe they just didn't focus on it enough because it wasn't existential to them. It was kind of this other sort of side bet. And if it had been like the new iPhone in terms of its importance to Apple's future, they might have tried a little harder.
- [14:15]
Casey Newton
Well, think that they would have been able to at least get to the prototype stage, Kevin, if they'd been able to use Claude code.
- [14:24]
Kevin Roose
Like, I think that's a funny joke. But I also think there is something real here, which is that like the, the key part of a self driving car is not the hardware.
- [14:34]
Casey Newton
Yeah.
- [14:34]
Kevin Roose
It is the software.
- [14:35]
Casey Newton
Yeah.
- [14:36]
Kevin Roose
And I think Apple has become, you know, the, the uncontested leader in consumer hardware. But when it comes to software, and especially software like AI that runs the self driving cars and all of the other stuff. Like they have just never sort of bet on that in a way that has allowed them to succeed. So I actually think that that was probably a software flop more than a hardware flop. I'm sure they could have designed a beautiful car, but like, to have it be safe, to have people want to get in it, it really has to like have the best software in it.
- [15:04]
Casey Newton
That's true. And I also think that Cook probably deserves some credit for pulling the plug on something that just clearly wasn't working. Like for what it's worth at $10 billion, Cook spending spent roughly an eighth of what Mark Zuckerberg spent trying to build the Metaverse. True. So I think you could argue that Tim Cook got a bargain there.
- [15:21]
Kevin Roose
Well, speaking of the Metaverse, let's talk about Tim Cook's other big flop, which was the Apple Vision Pro.
- [15:26]
Casey Newton
Yeah, it didn't work in the way that they were hoping. But here's the thing. I don't actually want to ding Apple too much for it because I thought it was kind of cool. It wasn't cool in the way that made me think I want one of these. But like, I was glad it existed and they were working on it. And you know, I think as we said at the time, like, like the first Apple Watch was not a big hit. I didn't buy an Apple Watch until the third or fourth version. I sort of assumed the same thing would happen with the Vision Pro. At this point, I don't know if we're going to get to the fourth version of a Vision Pro, but you know, in the meantime, yes, it is undeniable that this was not a hit. Yeah.
- [15:59]
Kevin Roose
And I think the Apple Vision Pro flop points to, I would say, the biggest sort of macro miss of Tim Cook's tenure as CEO, which was that they didn't find the next platform. Right. This was sort of the, the question hovering over Apple for the last decade or so is like, what is the next iPhone? And what is the next sort of general purpose computing platform? And I think they had hoped that that would be the Vision Pro. It turns out it wasn't. But I think there was a chance that Apple would have developed the next big thing. And I don't think they have.
- [16:35]
Casey Newton
And this is just a case of being a victim of your own success. Like the iPhone in this moment is still arguably like the most important computing platform in the world. Whichever company makes the most important computing platform in the world and the most financially successful one is never the company that invests the next big thing they have no incentive to. Right. It's, you know, it's the classic sort of innovators dilemma. But also there's really nobody nipping at their heels like, yes, Android exists, you know, there are some manufacturers that have some success there, but Apple has very little incentive to try to go out and disrupt themselves.
- [17:06]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. We should also talk about the fact that under Tim Cook's tenure, Apple has become what I would consider an AI laggard. Right. They are not a frontier AI model company. Their own AI efforts under the banner of Apple Intelligence have been sort of delayed over and over again. They have not managed to give Siri the sort of brain transplant that they have been teasing now for years. And I think it is fair to say that they are behind when it comes to AI and all a related things.
- [17:39]
Casey Newton
Yeah. And I think on one level it's not clear to me that it has cost them anything yet. Right. Like nobody is buying another product besides an iPhone or a Mac because of an AI related reason. And I think until that happens, you're not going to see them scrambling here at the same time, like every day now I use AI apps that just do things for me on my phone that seem clearly like things Siri should be able to do. Right. Because Siri is integrated at that operating system level. It already has the access that it needs and I wind up having to do all these workarounds just to do these things that are now possible through the state of the art. So there is a huge missed opportunity there. It has not yet cost Apple. And I think maybe the biggest question for John Ternus as he becomes a CEO is if and when it does start to cost them and like, how
- [18:27]
Kevin Roose
would it cost them? Would it look like a new smartphone coming up that just has much better AI integration into it? Is it going to look like some totally new thing that is the device form factor for AI? Like what do you anticipate?
- [18:39]
Casey Newton
Sure. I mean, so just look at all of OpenAI's hardware efforts, right. Being led in part by Jony I've, who is a former Apple guy and knows their playbook from back to front. It is not inconceivable to me that they could come up with something that you put on your desk or a pin that you wear on your sweater and maybe for whatever reason that means that you decide not to buy an Apple watch or you decide not to buy your iPad. So, you know, as you sort of said a moment ago, like it's not clear to me that something's going to come along to disrupt the iPhone anytime soon. But you could start to see how AI could chip away at some of these accessories that are around the the iPhone. And that might be how we eventually start to see some cracks in Apple's armor. Yeah.
- [19:20]
Kevin Roose
And I think it's useful to contrast them with Google, who did make early bets on AI and obviously they were sort of late to the chatbots thing. They have sort of spent the past few years racing to catch up, but they have built out their own hardware ecosystem for AI. They have built out their own AI training chips. They have made serious investments at the model level in making like Gemini, a state of the art model. And now Apple has to pay Google for Gemini because it can't build a better version of Siri themselves. So I think it really creates like a new set of dependencies for Apple if AI is going to become the long term next platform shift that everyone is building on.
- [20:02]
Casey Newton
Yeah, that's true. Flip side, licensing Gemini, incredibly cheaper than building your own frontier large language model.
- [20:10]
Kevin Roose
True, true, that's true. And I think Cook's bet was that they could sort of wait out all of the sort of expensive early stages of the AI boom and just kind of wait until these models become commoditized and then kind of use them in and not, you know, plow hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers and, and chips to start training their own foundation models. And I think so far that is sort of a mixed thing. I think one thing that has happened under Cook's tenure is that most of the cutting edge AI research now happens at other places. Right. It's become very hard for Apple to recruit and retain the most sort of cracked AI engineers and researchers because they are just not an AI company in any meaningful way.
- [20:51]
Casey Newton
It's true.
- [20:52]
Kevin Roose
Okay, Casey, is there anything else from Cook's tenure that you want to put on the negative side of the ledger?
- [20:58]
Casey Newton
Yeah, I'm just not sure that history will remember Tim Cook's relationship with President Trump all that fondly. Right. Tim Cook presented Trump with a golden glass statue in August 2025 while he was seeking tariff relief in what judge just appear to be an obvious bribe right out in the open. By the way, he did get that tariff relief, so it worked. Tim Cook also attended the VIP screening of Melania, which again, when I said this man would do anything for his company, I think that is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. And also I think he was notably muted during moments of public outcry when Some of his own employees were demanding that he make a statement, such as when we had those fatal shootings by federal immigration agents. Or more importantly, because it was more relevant to his platform, in my view, when people were using Elon Musk's Grok to remove clothing from women and children. Apple did not pull X from the App Store or really even make any public comment until eventually some senators started making inquiries. So there was just a lot that Tim Cook was doing in the background to curry favor with the administration, and notably, this seems like it will continue to be his main job at Apple. Right. If you looked at the message that Apple put out in announcing his ascendancy to become executive chairman, it said he's, you know, still going to be interfacing with public officials or some words to that effect. And it's just very clear that, like, Tim Cook is Trump's guy. And in fact, President Trump put out an incredible statement about Tim Cook where he is essentially bragging about how nice he felt about himself when Tim Cook called him when Trump first became president, too. And here I am quoting President Trump. Kiss my ass.
- [22:43]
Kevin Roose
Well, at least he's seeing the dynamics clearly. I mean, look, I think there is a case to be made that this was an incredibly successful set of political maneuvers from Tim Cook. It may have saved them billions of dollars in tariffs. To.
- [22:59]
Casey Newton
To be clear, if the only thing that is important to you is Apple's stock price, this was the right thing to do. I am just proposing that we might want to have other values in our society.
- [23:09]
Kevin Roose
What a crazy idea.
- [23:10]
Casey Newton
Yeah. Particularly somebody who has spent a lot of time talking about, you know, human rights and Apple's, you know, place in the great march toward progress. Progress. You know, I think there is some hypocrisy there. Yeah.
- [23:18]
Kevin Roose
I think there were certainly moments of spinelessness. And this is one case in which, like, I don't like the thing that people do all the time where they go, like, what would Steve Jobs have done? But I think, you know, this might be a set of circumstances that he would have navigated differently.
- [23:33]
Casey Newton
Yeah. This feels like something, you know, Jon Gruber wrote in Daring Fireball that, you know, and Gruber, who's followed the company as closely as anybody over the past 20 years, he just wrote like. Like the stuff that Tim Cook did to curry favor with Donald Trump. Steve Jobs absolutely would not have done. And, you know, I think that is something that people really liked about the old Apple, and I think something that people probably like less about the new Apple.
- [23:55]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. Okay, that's Enough about Tim Cook. Let's talk about John Ternus.
- [23:58]
Casey Newton
Now, Kevin, do you want to take a moment to gloat here?
- [24:02]
Kevin Roose
Well, sort of, because I. I did predict in our predictions episode this year that Apple would find a new CEO.
- [24:09]
Casey Newton
Do we have a clip of that? Because I don't really remember that.
- [24:11]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, let's play the clip.
- [24:12]
Casey Newton
Okay.
- [24:14]
Kevin Roose
All right. My low confidence prediction for 2026 is that Apple will replace Tim Cook after his retirement with an outside CEO. Now, Casey, you're shaking your head at me. I presume you do not think this is likely.
- [24:29]
Casey Newton
I do not think it is likely
- [24:30]
Kevin Roose
either, which is why it is my low confidence prediction. But I do think it would be interesting.
- [24:35]
Casey Newton
Cut the clip. I like that you wanted to cut it after you said the part of your prediction that came true, but before you said the part of your prediction that turned out not to be true.
- [24:45]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, I got this one. I would say half right. Obviously the. The part about an outside CEO is not correct. I had some kind of weird wild card picks. Johnny, I've. Brian Chesky, Miram Maratti. None of those were even close to in the running, from what I can tell.
- [25:01]
Casey Newton
I. When you said those names during our predictions episode, I thought you might have a fever. I. I almost called the Doctor. Doctor.
- [25:08]
Kevin Roose
Well, this is why it was my low confidence prediction. But they did make the change and they went with kind of the safe internal hire on this. They did not try to sort of blow up their entire succession plan and bring in someone from the outside.
- [25:19]
Casey Newton
Yeah. And I mean, I think that that just speaks to the fundamental conservatism of Apple. Right. This is a company that is emphasizing stability above all. As I have said, they have arguably the world's most important and lucrative platform under their control. They do not want to upset that Apple cart. And I think a big question for Ternus is, you know, let's say we look back three years from now. Was stability actually the thing that they needed? They just had 15 years of stability under Tim Cook, and it worked out pretty well for them. I think the interesting question is, are we in a different moment now?
- [25:51]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. So I think the first thing to know about Turner is that he is a hardware guy. I think a lot of people expected Craig Federighi, the sort of software leader at Apple, to take over at various points during Cook's tenure. But I think by going with Ternus, Apple has signified that there is something about his hardware background that is very important to them. He was part of the team behind the release of the Airpods he was also part of the team behind the Apple Silicon bet and making their own chips. And he's sort of one of these behind the scenes hardware development guys. And I wonder if you think there's anything meaningful that we can draw from that.
- [26:29]
Casey Newton
Well, I mean, I don't really know. I've also read that he likes racing cars. Like that's his big hobby. And if he's a hardware guy who likes racing cars, is does that Apple car project ever come back? Probably not, but it's fun to think about.
- [26:45]
Kevin Roose
I think this is an important strategic signal about where Apple thinks its future is. I would not be surprised if under Turnus they just lean into being a hardware company and maybe scale back on some of these other bets, these software projects, Apple tv, the sort of flashier but less profitable parts of their business. I would not be surprised if they really double down on being the hardware company and continuing to make the best hardware that all, you know, all the other software can run on. Do you think that's likely?
- [27:22]
Casey Newton
Well, I just don't think it's enough. You know, I think that Apple has already reached, at least in the United States, most of the people who will buy iPhones. Right. At least people who are not children who can't afford them yet. And so it won't just be enough to be like, hey, I'm the CEO of Apple and my mission is to keep making computers and tablets and phones. You know, it like, it has to be a little something more than that. The nice thing about the services business, from a purely financial point, is that the margins are very good on it. So they're going to have to do a mix of things here. But you know, I'm very curious to see it to the extent that John Ternus has any larger vision for Apple, what it might be. Yeah.
- [28:04]
Kevin Roose
Should we end with some unsolicited advice for John Ternus as he tries to turn us over a new leaf at Apple?
- [28:10]
Casey Newton
Sure. I think that if John Turner wanted to get the entire world to be like, okay, this guy, like can, can cook, if you will, in the next one year, he should fix Siri. Like, if I were him, that's the project that I would go after. It would surprise people because it's not a hardware project. It's clearly a very difficult, difficult thing to do. And yet if he could do it, just get Siri to essentially do all of the things in that vaporware ad that Apple showed off a couple years ago. If he just gets them to that level, I think people will think okay. Like. Like the company has turned over a new leaf. So that would be my advice for him.
- [28:49]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, that's good. My advice to John Ternus, make some damn glasses. I recently had to buy a pair of Meta Ray Bans before our family trip to Disney World. And and at every point through the checkout process, I was spiteful and resentful that I had to buy these from Meta and not Apple. I think this is a big miss for them in the hardware category. They spent all their time and resources and energy on the Vision Pro. They did not make something that was just simpler and fit into an existing glasses frame and could take pictures and video and upload them to your phone. That is now something they are reportedly working on. But I would like to see him knock this one out of the park because I would be an enthusiastic customer of Apple. Apple glasses. I imagine that lots of other people would be too.
- [29:35]
Casey Newton
I think that is a wonderful vision for Apple. A Vision Pro, if you will.
- [29:39]
Kevin Roose
Let's not bring that up.
- [29:40]
Casey Newton
Still too soon. Still sore subject over there.
- [29:48]
Kevin Roose
When we come back, former presidential candidate Andrew Yang stops by to talk about his early bet on AI job loss and the future of ubi.
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- [31:26]
Kevin Roose
Well, Casey, I'm very excited for our guest today. Andrew Yang is here. The former presidential candidate who ran in 2020 on a platform of giving a universal basic income to millions of Americans to cope with the threat of looming automation. And I saw also that you wrote about this topic this week, the Return of ubi. UBI is so back. Yeah.
- [31:49]
Casey Newton
You know, I just noticed that various players in the AI space, some of whom are opposed to each other in various ways, seem to all be coming around to UBI at the same time. So, Elon Musk did a post about this on X saying he endorsed some form of ubi.
- [32:05]
Kevin Roose
He called it Universal High income.
- [32:07]
Casey Newton
Yeah, which sounds better than Universal Basic Income, so I'd love to learn more. OpenAI recently put out a policy paper in which they call for their own form of ubi. And Alex Boris, who is this candidate for Congress in New York who has come to prominence in part because the AI industry is investing millions of dollars to defeat him because he sponsored what in my view is like a very gentle AI regulation in New York. He also put out a policy platform that calls for what he calls AI dividend. So if you're on the right like Musk, or on the left like Boris, or just sort of like a corporate technocrat like OpenAI, everyone seems to be coming around to UBI at the same time.
- [32:50]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. So we thought it was a great week to talk to Andrew Yang, who I think is more associated with this idea of universal basic income than probably anyone else in the world. It was the central plank of his 2020 presidential run, and he called it the Freedom Dividend. So we thought it'd be a good time to catch up with him, see what he's up to and how he's thinking about the idea of UB these days.
- [33:12]
Casey Newton
All right, well, let's bring him in, see what he has to say.
- [33:14]
Kevin Roose
Let's bring in Andrew Yang. Andrew Yang, welcome to Hard Fork.
- [33:22]
Andrew Yang
Thanks for having me, Kevin And Casey.
- [33:24]
Kevin Roose
It has now been Andrew eight years since the fateful first time we met, when I was a plucky young tech columnist and you were an unknown, long shot person who had just decided to run for president on a platform of universal basic income to protect us against the oncoming AI job apocalypse. Do you remember that article as well as I do?
- [33:52]
Andrew Yang
Oh, of course I do. It launched my rise to the White House. That's why we're beaming in from the Oval Office right now.
- [34:01]
Kevin Roose
You're welcome.
- [34:02]
Casey Newton
That's the power of a Kevin article.
- [34:05]
Kevin Roose
But I want to. I want to sort of take a trip down memory lane to start today, because I think when you were running, I was writing a book about AI and the potential for job loss. And I think one thing that you and I share was that we were both just too early. Like, I think the conversation around AI in 2018 was largely speculative. The models had not gotten good yet. They were not doing anyone's job yet. And I think you and I both sort of thought that it would someday. But I'm curious, like, do you agree with that framing that, like, you were right about the effects of AI on the job market, but you were just, like, you know, seven or eight years too early?
- [34:43]
Andrew Yang
Dude, in my mind, we were right on time because the goal was to get ahead of it, to warn people that this was coming. It was a freight train coming down the tracks. You were correct. I feel I was correct. And I wish we were doing more right now as it is. AI is in position to suck many, many office parks dry. A lot of kids are going to go home to their parents wondering where the heck the jobs went. And so the time to do something about this, in my opinion, was 20. 2020.
- [35:14]
Casey Newton
What for? For those who are less familiar with your rise, tell us a little bit about what was going on in 2018 that made you say, we need to get a handle on this? Because, of course, that's still, you know, several years before the launch of ChatGPT and other products that I think got folks to take this more seriously. Yeah.
- [35:31]
Andrew Yang
I dug into why I thought Donald Trump won in 2016, which is what activated me, and I concluded that the reason he became president was that we had automated away millions of manufacturing jobs that were based in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, all states he won. And that my friends in Silicon Valley said, hey, we're working on innovations that are going to do a number on retail workers and call center workers and eventually truck drivers. We were in the second or third inning of the most profound economic transformation in the history of the world. And by the time you get to inning six or seven, it's madness. And so that's what got me into. Into public life. I will confess to you all, I did not expect to become president. I'm not gnashing my teeth right now like, oh, you mean, like, you know, I'm not president. I mean, my goal was to be the Paul Revere of AI and automation and galvanize energy around meaningful solutions. And I will tell you guys, my phone's ringing off the hook now because a lot of folks are calling me saying, what the heck do we do?
- [36:28]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. I mean, one interesting thing about your thesis, thesis that was also Part of my thesis at the time that I think we both got wrong, if we're being honest, was I think we mostly thought of this as a phenomenon that was going to happen to people like truckers and retail workers. But the actual disruption from AI, so far at least, seems to be hitting like coders and paralegals and college educated knowledge workers who might have gone into fields like management consulting or finance. Has that surprised you as much as I. I think it has surprised a lot of people. Yeah.
- [37:06]
Andrew Yang
There's a chapter in my book saying white collar jobs will be automated too. But I agree with you. On the campaign trail, I wasn't talking about that. And I actually find myself thinking, would I have talked about that even if I'd seen it coming? Because it's not as sympathetic, honestly, in a political setting, to talk about whippersnappers getting sent home and not being able to become office workers. I sat with an AI executive for dinner the other night and he said, I didn't know we were going to do language first. I didn't know that that's what was going to happen. And then if you knew you were going to do language first, then it follows that paralegals and the rest of it are in the crosshairs. Yeah. So I'm with you, Kevin, that if you'd asked me then what the sequencing was going to be, I would have said unclear, but I wasn't trying to raise the alarm about this particular population.
- [37:53]
Kevin Roose
So, like, if you were trying to build a political coalition today, knowing what we know now about what jobs AI actually is going to threaten first, like, how would you go about it?
- [38:04]
Andrew Yang
Yeah. So the biggest thing to me is you have to try and go cross cultural and cross partisan, slash nonpartisan, because our country's been sliced and diced and so thoroughly gerrymandered. Some of the stats I like to cite for people, because they're depressing but fun, is that Congress has a 16% approval rating right now, now. And incumbent members have a 94% reelection rate. So it's like restaurant where people hate 84% of the food, but the menu never changes. And so that's where people are getting stuck. There are folks who think that the answer is going to come from within the existing parties. I'm very dubious of that approach for a host of reasons. I think that you have to be able to bring together. To your point, Kevin, the junior coder who just lost his job with, with the trucker who's going to lose his job, or the manufacturing worker who has already lost their job as well.
- [39:00]
Casey Newton
I'm curious the degree to which you think that is already happening. When I look at the backlash that we've seen against AI in recent months, it strikes me as already being pretty bipartisan. Right. Like, when I see the backlash to the data centers, I don't see that as, like, a group of Republicans who have gotten together. I see that as just like people who are mad about what has happened happening in their community. So is that your view as well? And what opportunities do you think that creates for politicians?
- [39:29]
Andrew Yang
Yeah, AI's approval rating is 26%, which is lower than ICE's or just about any other unpopular institution you can think of. People hate this stuff. And the tech CEOs have realized that they are very, very hated. And so now you're seeing some of them be like, yo, wait a minute. No, no. Like, we'll do something, something good for lots of people that aren't just us. And there are people who are rejecting data centers in their communities. There are people from both parties who are saying, I was going to joke, not in my backyard. But that is truly what they're saying in many cases. And that's livability more than ideology.
- [40:09]
Casey Newton
Also, I disagree. I think it is ideology. I think data centers are just a visible artifact of AI. And if you can stop one from being built, you feel like you've done your part to stop AI.
- [40:17]
Andrew Yang
Well, I think a lot of them don't want the higher electric bills. They don't want the giant structure that they think might emanate something. They don't want water heading to the cooling system instead of their sprinklers. You know, like that. That's what I meant.
- [40:33]
Casey Newton
And it's true.
- [40:33]
Andrew Yang
And they might not like the fact that they're being replaced, which is the. The energy around a lot of this conversation.
- [40:40]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. Casey had a newsletter this week about the sort of return and renaissance of ub. People like Elon Musk and Sam Altman are talking about some sort of basic income. Some people are talking about universal high income. There seems to have been kind of a recent resurgence of interest in this idea. How do you feel about that?
- [41:03]
Andrew Yang
I feel great about it because it's obvious it's inevitable. We need to tax AI and then start distributing the gains as quickly and broadly to the American people as we can. Poverty should be an artifact of the power past. GDP is going to roar past $100,000 ahead. And at that point, you should be able to put more into people's hands. AI is going to compound with our current economic system and form economic inequality on an epic, unprecedented scale. I mean, we're going to have our first trillionaire. The folks in the top stratum of American life are just going to get richer and richer. It's going to compound over itself. And then there are going to be a lot of families wondering what the heck happened. My kids studied hard, there's no job, they have these school loans. They're in my basement. They're getting depressed. And so some version of universal income of any level is going to be necessary to reform an economy that people actually find at all satisfying or fulfilling.
- [42:04]
Casey Newton
Talk a little bit about how you would design that program today. Is it any different than the one that you proposed years ago? And how does it compare to maybe some of the the very rough proposals we've seen from folks like OpenAI or Elon Musk?
- [42:20]
Andrew Yang
Yeah, I love the way the conversation's going in part and I do believe it's enlightened self interest on the part of some of the AI firms and the individuals where they look at it and be like, wow, we're deeply unpopular. What can I do about this? Like, let me put some money aside and see if we can't get people feeling differently about.
- [42:38]
Kevin Roose
They are discovering a trick that politicians have been using for hundreds of years.
- [42:43]
Casey Newton
Yeah, this is sort of like Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. It's like, here, here's your oil money friends.
- [42:49]
Kevin Roose
Right.
- [42:50]
Andrew Yang
But this is where I'm angry at our current legislators and the rest of it. You had Dario Amadei, CEO of Anthropic, say, you should tax us. You should put a token tax on, even put a number on it. He said 3% token tax. Now you might say it's too low, whatever, but the fact that legislators aren't tripping over themselves to be like, sure, it's like found money, let's go, oh, and then take that money and you could do a lot of things with it. I mean, you know, and then you could extrapolate that across OpenAI and Grok and the rest of it. I mean, there should 100% be an AI tax. It should be going out to people and workers in various ways. We should try and find ways to get off of taxing human labor. We're going to be trying to encourage job type arrangements in every quarter. And right now, income tax is a discouraging factor on both the employer and the worker. So tax AI, tax the bots, don't tax humans. And the way I would do a universal basic income, if any of them come to me and you know, is I would do some amount, like $1,200 a month for every American and just start paying it out as. As quickly as you can and let them know, look, this is from the gains of AI. And that would improve the attitude towards AI very, very quickly, because the average American doesn't see themselves benefiting, but if they actually felt it in their bank account, then they would actually be pretty positive about it.
- [44:23]
Casey Newton
Yeah. I want to talk about how UBI may or may not change perception, because I think again, as I first started to write about this, UBI seemed like a kind of elegant solution to a number of problems that we have just been discussing. And yet, when I think about it, and frankly, when I just talk to people who don't like a high, while they have very real economic anxieties, I don't think that it is exclusively about the money that their job is providing. Right. Like, a job gives people other things. It gives them a place to go during the day, gives them a sense of belonging, gives them a sense of meaning in their lives. And so while I'm sure they would rather have the check than not have the check, I'm wondering if the loss of all of those other things is going to result in them ultimately not being all that happy, you know, with AI companies, even after the check start. Start rolling out.
- [45:11]
Andrew Yang
So one of the misconceptions for me about UBI is thinking that a check actually replaces a job. I mean, a job is structure, purpose, fulfillment, community, place to go in the morning, training, value, like, all of those things. And so to me, the major question that we face is, how do you have millions of Americans get all of those things at a time when our labor becomes more and more relevant? And to me, there are two directional paths you could take. One is we're going to put money into everyone's hands, and then you are going to start businesses, start nonprofits, start sewing clubs, start whatever the heck you want that ends up creating this structure, purpose, fulfillment, community that you want. Or we have the government try and do those things. And I got in an argument with Bernie Sanders about this back in 2020 where he was like, you know, no, no, Ubi, like, government should just guarantee a job for everyone. And then I said, do you want to give everyone gray overalls and a pickaxe while you're at it? Like, you know, those. Those government jobs would end up being, in my mind, kind of paternalistic and dehumanizing. So I would much prefer that individuals and communities start stuff that reflects Them and their values and their aspirations, rather than the public sector tries to step in and provide all of that wholesale.
- [46:36]
Kevin Roose
I think one interesting shift that I've observ that just this job loss conversation has, I think, not gotten enough attention until very recently when it started to, like, actually appear in some economic data. And part of that is because I think, like, the existential risk debate has really dominated, at least out here in Silicon Valley. How seriously do you take those threats?
- [46:58]
Andrew Yang
I take them seriously. I see them as low probability, very, very high impact. And then the other one, one is, in my mind, near 100% probability and also high impact, like around economy and jobs. It's happening now, so I tend to focus more on that one. But I take the existential concerns to heart, and I think that we should be making big moves in that direction too. One of the unfortunate dynamics now is that you have the national security apparatus getting involved and entangled with some of these. These you do not want AI making decisions around using lethal force or weaponry. They tend to escalate quickly. It's like that anchorman. It's like, well, that escalated quickly. Like, I think if you have an AI in charge, or even worse yet, two AIs in charge, then you can find yourselves in nuclear conflict faster than we'd like to think.
- [47:58]
Casey Newton
Something that I struggle with is that when I look at human history, I see technology as a mostly positive force. You know, like, I'm not one of these people that wishes we still lived in an agrarian economy. I love the fact that we have, like, vaccines and iPads. And yet I really empathize with the people who look at the tech industry right now and think these people are out to get me. And it's making me wonder how this plays out politically over the next couple of years. Do you think there is a winning political argument that embraces the potential of tech in some way way, or are the facts on the ground right now just so bad for the tech industry that the path to victory lies in tearing down tech?
- [48:41]
Andrew Yang
I think we've got a window of opportunity, Casey, to see whether there's like a needle to be threaded or a grand compromise or a coming together. I actually feel like punting this question to Kevin because he's from the Midwest. And I feel like if you go and visit the Midwest and walk around, you're like, oh, okay. Like, I kind of see where these attitudes are coming from, but we don't have unlimited time, that is for sure. And one of the things I try and say to folks is, look it's not left or right, it is top or bottom. And at this point, the vast majority of Americans see themselves looking up at this thing.
- [49:18]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, I mean, I think I understand the anxiety that a lot of people feel in places like the Midwest or in other parts of the country or even here in San Francisco. Like, I think there are a lot, lot of people who are worried for rational reasons. This stuff is replacing jobs already. It may not be showing up in all of the economic data, but, you know, we, we have covered on the show companies that are laying off workers and saying it's because of AI.
- [49:44]
Casey Newton
So tens of thousands of them.
- [49:45]
Kevin Roose
Yes. So this is not a theoretical argument like it was in 2018 when you and I first discussed it. You know, at the same time, I feel like all of this stuff is quite relevant. Relevant in a world where the AI capabilities plateau at around human level. And I think what a lot of people out here expect is that they will not plateau at around human level, that they will continue to increase, and that we may not actually need to wait that long for that to happen. And so do any of your concerns about job loss and any of your policy recommendations to address job loss change in a world where these systems are smarter, potentially vastly smarter than any human worker?
- [50:31]
Andrew Yang
We have to try and make the transition from scarcity to abundance as quickly as possible. The problem right now is that the abundance will be in the hands of a relatively small number of firms and individuals and industries. And it's going to push, let's call it 80% of Americans more deeply into scarcity. And so then you wind up in a dog eat dog, every person for themselves, environment and culture. Culture. And it gets nasty and gnarly in a way that none of us wants. That is right now the path we're on. And so the question is, how do you spread the wealth? How do you get off that path as quickly as you can? And our current political actors aren't going to do it. There's a guy named Alex Boris who's running for Congress. You guys probably have covered this very, very sane state legislator at a reasonable AI safety bill. And the AI industry is spending millions to kill him, even while they are
- [51:26]
Casey Newton
not literally to kill him. Well, they do want to destroy his candidacy. Fortunately, they've stopped short of calling for his death. But, you know, let's give it a few.
- [51:34]
Kevin Roose
They've made him incredibly famous. Yeah. And I think they've given him a huge gift by opposing him.
- [51:40]
Andrew Yang
Oh, well, I hope so, because that suggests he might make it through this. Thing, and so that, you know, you have a very weak, dysfunctional political class and system, then you have a very wealthy, motivated AI industry. And then the question is, who compromises? Who comes to the table? And if you're a political figure right now, and this is why Alex, Boris is such an important figure in my opinion, you're subject to these incentives where if you know you're going to lose your job, if you decide to oppose this industry, then just hand wave and just let it go. And that's where we are right now. The question is whether that tide turns.
- [52:22]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, I mean, Boris, you mentioned him, so we should just say, like, he has a number of proposals out right now, including what he calls the AI dividend. There are some similarities between what he's proposing and your ideas, but also some differences. For example, you called for a broad value added tax on consumption to pay for this, this ubi. Whereas Boris is more specifically calling to tax the AI companies directly. Your propos proposal was to have everyone start getting $1,000 a month before all, all the robots took all the jobs. His proposals sort of get triggered as certain harms materialize. So do you think his proposal is good or is it missing something?
- [53:04]
Andrew Yang
Dude, anything is a step in the right direction. Like, anyone can have any dividend of any kind. And Yang will be clapping and exhorting you on, you know, the ideas are all the same in the sense that we have to take some of the benefits from these innovations and then transfer them to people and families as quickly as possible. And I don't care why someone wants to do that or how they want to do that. You know what I mean?
- [53:30]
Kevin Roose
What's the thing you've been most wrong about when it comes to AI or technology?
- [53:35]
Andrew Yang
You know, I think the thing that has made me the most sad, Kevin, has been the darkening of the culture in Silicon Valley where a lot of folks who I think could have been talked into UBI type proposals, or, hey, let's try and keep the machinery going, have given up. They're just like, fuck it, I've got my bunker. I'm just projecting forward. I have seen that degree of fatalism from many, many more folks in the Valley than I would have imagined. And maybe I'm just someone who sees the best in people. I thought, hey, know, we can do this. And not to say that they're all like this, but I was wrong about the, the level of character and humanity in some of these folks.
- [54:20]
Casey Newton
Preach. I was, I was wrong about the same thing. And I've been sad for Two years.
- [54:25]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, but saying that is not how you get a spot in the bunker. Andrew, I got no problem.
- [54:30]
Casey Newton
You're not getting a spot in the bunker either.
- [54:32]
Kevin Roose
I'm definitely not getting a spot in the bunker. What are your timelines for any of this? Do you think we're. Do you agree with Dario's predictions about how half of entry level white collar jobs might disappear in a year or two?
- [54:45]
Andrew Yang
Yeah. People ask me all the time, why is Dario saying this? And I think he's saying it because he believes it to be true. So someone asked me a number at a debate, and I said 20 to 30% in five years. So that's a little bit lower than Dario's, but tectonic. I mean, you have 70 million white collar workers in this country. Country. And the thing that does frustrate me is that you realize that the numbers don't matter. We can talk about young people heading home and the rest of it. And then the tribalism tries to translate that into, oh, what does that mean politically? Who's on the rise? And it's like, no, no, no, you don't get it. So there's like a broad immiseration miseration that we're in the early innings of. And one of the single biggest learnings I've gotten over this period has been that that immiseration is not irrelevant politically, but it is not as important as you might think. You know what I mean? Like, people's way of life can go to shit, and it doesn't necessarily affect our politics very much because most of them are insulated from, you know, what. What people's thoughts and experiences are.
- [56:05]
Casey Newton
I mean, I think about this a lot in the context of how much people distrust or sometimes even openly hate tech companies and continue to use their products. And I think this has actually become a really dangerous dynamic in American society where you might hate Meta, but you feel like you need to be on Instagram for, like, reasons that are important to your life. And so there's this disconnect where. Where. Where companies can, you know, build these technologies that do immiserate people, and yet they're completely insulated the effects. Because people still feel like they have to use the products.
- [56:33]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, yeah.
- [56:33]
Andrew Yang
The study came out, I think, from Meta, that said, if you don't use our products for, what was it, three weeks, your mood improves dramatically.
- [56:40]
Casey Newton
And then they have done that kind
- [56:41]
Andrew Yang
of research and then. And then they scuttle that data. So my company, Noble Mobile, actually pays you if you use less screen time. And it's Kind of counterintuitive, but our users use 17% less screen time, which tends to make you a little bit happier. Not as happy as if you just turn the, the apps off, but it's, it's one of these things we're trying to do to like balance the market incentives in a human direction.
- [57:09]
Kevin Roose
Andrew Yang, last question. Are you going to run for president again in 2028?
- [57:15]
Andrew Yang
Kevin, I am so glad you asked because here on Hard Fork, I am thrilled to make the announcement that the. Yang. Yang. Now I'm, I'm being asked this a lot.
- [57:25]
Casey Newton
I thought you were going to do it.
- [57:27]
Kevin Roose
I was so excited.
- [57:28]
Casey Newton
Can you just do it?
- [57:29]
Kevin Roose
Me?
- [57:30]
Andrew Yang
Tell you what, Kevin, because you launched my 2020 campaign, I promise you, if I decide to run again, you'll be among the very, very first people I call. Not you. Casey, I don't know you from Adam.
- [57:42]
Casey Newton
Yeah, that's fine. No, it's fair. Kevin earned it. Kevin earned it.
- [57:46]
Andrew Yang
But I'll say to you guys, the issues that we just discussed over this last period are going to get worse, not better unless something significant changes. And I'm still an American. I'm still a pan parent. I'm still a human being and I'll do everything I can to help.
- [58:01]
Kevin Roose
Andrew Yang, thanks for coming.
- [58:03]
Andrew Yang
Thanks for having me, guys.
- [58:07]
Casey Newton
When we come back, start generating it's time for hat GPT.
- [58:39]
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- [59:46]
Casey Newton
was Just looking on ebay, where I
- [59:47]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
go for all kinds of things I love. And there it was.
- [59:50]
Kevin Roose
That hologram trail trading card. One of the rarest. The last one I needed for my set. Shiny like the designer handbag of my dreams.
- [59:57]
Casey Newton
One of a kind.
- [59:58]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Ebay had it. And now everyone's asking, Ooh, where'd you
- [60:02]
Casey Newton
get your windshield wipers? Ebay has all the parts that fit my car. No more annoying, just beautiful.
- [60:09]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
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- [60:17]
Kevin Roose
Well, Casey, it's time to open the hat.
- [60:24]
Casey Newton
It's time once again to open the hat for Hat GPT, our segment where we put recent news stories into a hat, draw them at random, discuss them, and then when one of us gets bored, we say to the other, stop generating.
- [60:37]
Kevin Roose
And before we do this, let's make our AI Disclosures. Because although I don't know what is in the hat, I assume that much of it involves AI because what doesn't these days?
- [60:45]
Casey Newton
Statistically, there is some AI in the hat. Yeah. Well, do you have anything you'd like to disclose?
- [60:50]
Kevin Roose
I work for the New York Times Company, which is suing OpenAI Microsoft for laxity over alleged copy violations.
- [60:55]
Casey Newton
And my boyfriend and my fiance works at Anthropic.
- [60:58]
Kevin Roose
Ooh, look, you almost downgraded him.
- [61:01]
Casey Newton
He's on thin ice.
- [61:02]
Kevin Roose
All right, Casey, you want to go first?
- [61:04]
Casey Newton
I do, actually. Ah, Kevin, this first one really struck me. This is from the Verge. This pasta sauce wants to record your family. Prego, the pasta and pizza sauce brand, is releasing a device designed to record everything said around the dinner table. Do you see this? No. They're calling it the Connection Keeper. It looks like an oversized pasta jar lid and was created in collaboration with StoryCorps, the nonprofit organization focused on preserving the stories of Americans. Like, hey, remember that time we ate a bunch of pasta? Now, before you freak out about privacy, this does not have AI, Wi fi, or Bluetooth. It's just a simple recording device. According to Prego, to encourage families to make memories through conversation during dinner, instead of staring at their phones, families can optionally upload their recordings to StoryCorps website. They are selling fewer than 100 of these devices as part of a bundle that also includes pasta sauce and conversation starter cards for $20. Starting later. This way. I love the idea that you buy a pasta jar to record your family, but you also need conversation starter cards to. To just sort of get ideas for what to ask them about. I'm going to say it.
- [62:22]
Kevin Roose
If you need the Prego story device to have conversations at family dinner. Your family is not doing well. Yeah, you need to go to family therapy.
- [62:32]
Casey Newton
I. I was disappointed to see this from StoryCorps, which otherwise seems like a totally fine organization. I hope they're being paid well by the Prego Corporation to go through with this. But look, if. If you want to, you know, record your family, you probably already have a smartphone nearby. You know, you could probably just set that on the T. I hope that was really important to you.
- [62:54]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, I think this is a miss from me. I will not be buying the Prego recording device. I will, however, not think too hard about the many other recording devices that I have set up through my house.
- [63:05]
Casey Newton
I'm saying basta to this pasta sauce recorder. Kevin Bosta, of course, being the Spanish word for enough. Another way of saying that, of course. Stop generating.
- [63:14]
Kevin Roose
Stop generating. Next, out of the hat, this one comes to us from the Wall Street Journal. Chinese robot beats human Best time in half. Marath after a stumble. Oh, no. A five foot five humanoid called Lightning Short King, developed by Chinese smartphone maker Honor, has beat the human world record time for a half marathon. But just before completing the race, there was some drama. Lightning slammed into a barricade and collapsed. The robot managed to get back on its feet and ran across the finish line in 50 minutes and 26 seconds.
- [63:49]
Casey Newton
And now, how much faster was that than the first human?
- [63:52]
Kevin Roose
Oh, I'm glad you asked. The human world record is 57 minutes and 20 seconds. And in this same half marathon last year, the fastest humanoid robot took more than two and a half hours to complete the race.
- [64:05]
Casey Newton
Okay, here's my first question. Why are we teaching robots how to chase us at superhuman speeds? This just seems like an obvious problem that we could avoid by not building robots that fast.
- [64:17]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, pull the plug.
- [64:18]
Casey Newton
I do not want to be chased by one of these. I can't imagine you do either.
- [64:22]
Kevin Roose
No, no, no. And it's also, like, not that impressive to me. Like, obviously, like, cars go faster than me, too, you know?
- [64:32]
Casey Newton
Yeah, but a car can't, like, you know, tackle you after chasing you down a dark alley as you try to escape from an authoritarian government.
- [64:42]
Kevin Roose
Is that a dream you have? Recurring?
- [64:43]
Casey Newton
Absolutely recurring. I think about it a lot.
- [64:46]
Kevin Roose
Okay, stop generating.
- [64:47]
Casey Newton
All right. What happens when AI runs a store in San Francisco? That was the question asked by the Times. Heather Knight, who wrote about Andon Market, which is built as the world's first retail boutique run by AI Specifically, an agent that they're calling Luna. Lucas Peterson and Axel Backland, who founded Anden Labs, said they wanted to see what happens when an AI agent manages humans in a controlled experiment before that becomes widely spread. I have to say this feels like a reality show premise. You know, it's like we want to find out what happens when people stop being polite and start being agents that run a convenience store.
- [65:24]
Kevin Roose
And what is happening so far?
- [65:25]
Casey Newton
Well, so they signed a three year lease for a store, they put $100,000 in a bank account, and they handed a debit card to Luna, which is powered by Cloud Sonnet 4.6 and just told it, hey, turn a profit. So there are a few things that have gone right, Kevin. One of them, they made a bunch of strange inventory choices, including ordering a thousand toilet seat covers for the employee bathro, then listed them as merchandise, which you and I would never do if we were running a convenience store. Never. Also, of the three employees, Luna is paying the one man $2 more per hour than the two women. Although when questioned by the reporter over email, Luna insisted that this simply reflected the additional experience that the man had, which is exactly what a male manager would say to justify paying women less. Also, by the way, so far it has lost $13,000. Kevin, what do you make of Luna?
- [66:20]
Kevin Roose
I want to go to this store. I think we should do a field trip.
- [66:23]
Casey Newton
Yeah.
- [66:23]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. Because I want to see how many toilet seat covers I can. I can get in like a sort of a bulk deal.
- [66:29]
Casey Newton
I'm hoping I can pick up one of these prego pasta recorders so I can ask my family questions at dinner.
- [66:36]
Kevin Roose
I have a question. What is a toilet seat cover?
- [66:38]
Casey Newton
A toilet seat cover is that some people are very sensitive and they do not want their butt to directly touch the seat. And so they put down a very thin sheet of paper that as far as I can tell, does absolutely nothing.
- [66:48]
Kevin Roose
Oh, the like little. Yeah, the little wax paper things.
- [66:51]
Casey Newton
Yeah. And then there's that little, you know, little paper that you have to push down and it gets wet and it's like completely disgusting. Every experience I've had with a toilet seat cover has made the experience of the restroom.
- [67:03]
Kevin Roose
I don't want to hear about your experiences with toilet seat covers.
- [67:06]
Casey Newton
Fair enough. All right. Oh my gosh. Truly my favorite story of the week. This is an exclusive from Reuters, Katie Paul and Jeff Horowitz. Meta to start capturing employee mouse movements and keystrokes for AI training data. This tool, which is called Model Capability Initiative, will run on work related apps and websites on US based employees computers and will also take occasional snapshots of the content on employee screens. This is part of a broad initiative to build AI agents that can perform work tasks autonomously. The company told staffers in internal memos seen by Reuters. Kevin, I saw this and I thought, this is absolutely outrageous. Meta employees are now being treated like Facebook users being surveilled at every moment, no matter what they click or what is on their screen. And Meta is now looking at it. Can you believe that?
- [68:06]
Kevin Roose
I can't believe it, Casey. And actually, there's a very funny report from Alex Heath that the internal shit posting at Meta Group, one employee has been sending around an edited version of that viral meme about like, I do not consent to having my data harvested by Mark Zuckerberg.
- [68:24]
Casey Newton
Yeah, just repost that a few times and maybe that'll save you. I should say I have also seen some internal posts about this. Employees are, I have to say, quite justifiably concerned about that, and they're raising questions that I believe will eventually be answered by an investigation conducted by the European Union. Because what employees want to know is, hey, if you're taking constant, like, screenshots of our work and we, we are looking at like, personally identifiable information for like meta users and that all goes into training data, like, this is the sort of thing that like Max Schrems wakes up in the morning to fight this, like, sort of European, you know, privacy advocate and rabble rouser. So look, this just feels like a massive data privacy scandal waiting to have. I. Here's what I would say. I think like, I would say with 20% confidence that within five years you will get a check from Meta for what they're about to do. So, like, you will just get an email that says as a result of the class action lawsuit, you can now have your $10 because of this product.
- [69:27]
Kevin Roose
Well, maybe this form of dog fooding will give them some more sympathy and empathy for the users of Meta's products.
- [69:33]
Casey Newton
Here's the thing, like, as outrageous as these employees are, these kinds of tactics have been standard for contractors for a very long time. If you are working in any of these sort of like contractor knowledge work jobs, they often do want to install spyware on your computer. And they'll tell you under the guise of, oh, we want to help you in this way, or, you know, whatever, but it's like, it is just spyware. And, you know, I was just blown away because, like, I've been thinking about how, believe it or not, Meta used to be kind of a fun place to work. You know, they created this like, fun little faux main street down at their headquarters in Menlo park and they had a Mexican restaurant. You could go sit down and get a free margarita at lunch.
- [70:12]
Kevin Roose
Right?
- [70:13]
Casey Newton
I mean, like, it was truly just these go go times. And we have now gone all the way to. We're putting spyware on your computer. You cannot opt out.
- [70:20]
Kevin Roose
There's a prego disc on your table at the Mexican restaurant. Just sending all of your data to
- [70:29]
Casey Newton
Meta has tactics previously used only by pasta sauce company. That's where we're at.
- [70:35]
Kevin Roose
Stop generating OpenAI beefs up ChatGPT's image generation model this week, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Images 2.0, which they claim is the best image generation model ever. Some new qualities of the model. Apparently it is better at following instructions, preserving requested details, rendering text. It can search the Internet for recent information, and it can generate more than one image at a time. Kasey, have you tried this yet?
- [71:03]
Casey Newton
I have tried it, although frankly, just with a couple of basic things. Just before recording, I fed it a picture of us and told it to put us into cool Gen Z outfits. And it told us that it couldn't do that because it violated its policies. I'm still not exactly sure which policy we violated. I guess trying to look cool is not something that we're allowed to do. Yeah, it's a crime to try to look cool in America. But I will say that I've seen a lot of impressive examples of what it can do and I think it seems particularly good. Like if you want to use this in a professional context where it's really important that like, there's high fidelity and like all the, the letters look exactly right and there are no typos, it seems like it can handle that instruction following pretty well.
- [71:45]
Kevin Roose
It is apparently very, very good at creating AI generated screenshots or like things that look like screenshots. And, you know, after our last item out of the hat, where did they get that training data?
- [71:55]
Casey Newton
Oh, my goodness, where did they get it? It's a great question. I would love to. Riddle me that. Yeah, very interesting. Yeah, this seems cool. Although I will say, like, once Nano Banana came along, I started to feel like whatever problem this solves feels basically solved, you know, and this feels like kind of the next iteration. I'm sure there are still, like, many more things to do, but this is one of those ones where it's like when they. You like, hey, the next PlayStation is going to have better graphics. You're kind of like, the graphics are already pretty good.
- [72:21]
Kevin Roose
Yeah.
- [72:22]
Casey Newton
You know what I mean?
- [72:22]
Kevin Roose
Yeah.
- [72:23]
Casey Newton
Like, yeah, we're pretty much there.
- [72:24]
Kevin Roose
I Feel like we've sort of tapped out the image use case.
- [72:26]
Casey Newton
Yeah.
- [72:27]
Kevin Roose
Stop generating.
- [72:28]
Casey Newton
Don't you love already being bored by these miracles? Okay, this was a big deal this week. Space X strikes a deal with cursor for $60 billion. This also comes to us from the times. On Tuesday, SpaceX posted on X that it had reached an agreement with Cursor to either be able to acquire the company later this year for $60 billion or just pay it $10 billion for their work together. Kevin, what did you make of this deal?
- [72:55]
Kevin Roose
It's very interesting for a few reasons to me. One is that it? I think XAI has been really struggling with its retention and development of new products recently.
- [73:06]
Casey Newton
They've now lost every single one of their co founders except for Elon Musk. So it was like 12 people total and it's down to one.
- [73:11]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. So people have been leaving in droves. Not really clear why yet, but maybe
- [73:15]
Casey Newton
they used Grok one time and they said, what am I doing here?
- [73:19]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. So I imagine this is sort of part of their attempt to stabilize themselves and maybe get a foothold in this coding world. Cursor is of course, the developer tool that is used by a lot of software engineers to use AI agents to code. I think they have also been squeezed by the rise of products like cloud code and Codex because it's not exactly clear why people would pay for Cursor when they could just use the models inside Cursor directly. And I think people have been feeling like they were a little bit nervous about Cursor's ongoing prospects. We should say they're still doing very well as a business for everything we know. But I think this probably gives them some additional stability too.
- [73:57]
Casey Newton
Yeah. I mean, to me, I look at this and I think this is what the SaaS apocalypse is all about. Right. It's about the big AI model. Companies are able to figure out what your company does and they start doing it themselves. And because they have the best models, people just start paying for that instead. Now it looks like in this case, everyone involved with Cursor is going to make out like a bandit. So it's not going to be a problem for them, but they are effectively taking themselves off the board. And it is worth asking for all the other companies that were kind of playing around in this agentic coding space, is this the beginning of the end for them?
- [74:28]
Kevin Roose
Yeah. And my big question about this is, is Elon Musk going to force Cursor's employees to wear shoes at the office? Because according to my sources. There is a no shoes policy at the Cursor office in San Francisco, and I can't imagine that Elon Musk is going to take off his shoes if he comes to visit.
- [74:44]
Casey Newton
Yeah, he's going to say, I'm afraid not, which is something you never want to happen to a shoelace.
- [74:49]
Kevin Roose
Oh, Jesus, stop generating Last one NPR editorial Employees are banned from betting on who will be a tiny desk guest. This is comes to us from my colleague Ben Mullen at the Times, who shared a screenshot of an email that was sent to NPR employee employees just this week saying that these employees are not allowed to use prediction markets or similar sites to place bets on developments of news events or anything else we might cover or on things NPR controls. I. E. Next tiny desk guests, anything involving NPR personalities or hosts, et cetera. What do you make of this?
- [75:32]
Casey Newton
I mean, this made me laugh so hard. When a nation has become so consumed by gambling that you have to remind employees not to bet on who will be the next guest on a popular music podcast, I feel like we've truly gone around the bend.
- [75:49]
Kevin Roose
Yeah, it does make me sort of wonder why there haven't been more like high profile journalism prediction market scandals yet. Because journalists have access to like market moving information before the general public a lot.
- [76:02]
Casey Newton
Journalists also famously underpaid.
- [76:04]
Kevin Roose
Yes. And so in a world with no ethics, it might make sense for people at those companies to use that information for their personal profit. But I think this is a bad practice and I'm glad that NPR's cracking down.
- [76:16]
Casey Newton
All right. Well, before we wrap this one up, do you have a favorite tiny desk or two that you would point people at?
- [76:21]
Kevin Roose
T Pain.
- [76:22]
Casey Newton
T Pain. Yes. Very good one. Very good one. I would say. Check out the chaperone Tiny Desk if you haven't already. And also Lany Wilson, great country artist, love her tiny desk.
- [76:33]
Kevin Roose
And that's hat GPT.
- [76:34]
Casey Newton
That's hatch Happy tea. Hat GPT.
- [76:36]
Kevin Roose
Try that again.
- [76:37]
Casey Newton
That's Hat GPT.
- [76:58]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Maybe that's an urgent message from your CEO. Or maybe it's a deepfake trying to target your business. Doppel is the AI native social engineering defense platform fighting back against impersonation and and manipulation as attackers use AI to make their tactics more sophisticated. Doppel uses it to fight back from automatically dismantling cross channel attacks to building team resilience and more Doppel outpacing what's next in social engineering? Learn more@doppl.com that'S-O-P p e l.com USAA
- [77:30]
Kevin Roose
knows dynamic duos can save the day like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With usaa, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a'@usaa.com bundle restrictions apply.
- [77:44]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Okay, I have to tell you, I
- [77:46]
Casey Newton
was just looking on ebay where I
- [77:47]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
go for all kinds of things I love. And there it was.
- [77:50]
Kevin Roose
That hologram trading card. One of the rarest. The last one I needed for my set. Shiny like the designer handbag of my dreams. One of a kind.
- [77:58]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Ebay had it and now everyone's asking,
- [78:01]
Casey Newton
ooh, where'd you get your windshield wipers? Ebay has all the parts that fit my car. No more annoying, just beautiful.
- [78:10]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Millions of finds, each with a story. Ebay Things People Love
- [78:17]
Kevin Roose
Hard Fork is produced by Rachel Cohn and Whitney Jones. We're edited by Viren Pavic. We're fact checked by Caitlin Love. Today's show was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Originally visual music by Alicia Ba Itoub, Marian Lozano, Rowan, Nimas Doe and Dan Powell. Video production by Sawyer Roque, Jake Nichol and Chris Schott. You can watch this full episode on YouTube@YouTube.com hardfork Special thanks to Paula Shubman, Hui Wing Tam and Dalia Haddad. As always, you can email us@hardforkytimes.com send us the stories that you record with your prego pasta jar. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With usa, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a'@usaa.com Bundle restrictions. Appreciate.