Hard Fork – “Why Roomba Died + Tech Predictions for 2026 + A Hard Forkin’ Xmas Song”

Hosts: Kevin Roose (KR), Casey Newton (CN)
Guest: Colin Angle (CA), co-founder and former CEO of iRobot
Date: December 19, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the downfall of Roomba and iRobot, with a frank interview with their co-founder Colin Angle. Kevin and Casey (as always) debate, quip, and analyze the current state and near future of tech, making bold predictions for 2026. The show wraps with their beloved (or infamous) “Hard Forkin’ Christmas” carol.

1. The Demise of Roomba and iRobot

Setting the Stage: iRobot Bankruptcy ([02:37])

• Roomba’s parent company, iRobot, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after being outpaced by fast-following Chinese competitors.
• CN: “A legendary American company is entering an exciting new chapter. Unfortunately for them, it’s Chapter 11.”

The Competitor Edge ([02:50-04:07])

• iRobot, founded in 1990, once led the consumer robotics industry with iconic products like the Roomba (released in 2002).
• The company’s fall from dominance: Blocked Amazon acquisition and loss to Chinese companies.
• Regulatory intervention killed a $1.7B Amazon buyout (stymied by US/EU antitrust officials). Without Amazon’s support, iRobot struggled to survive.
• Now, iRobot’s largest creditor is Picea Robotics, a Chinese competitor, who will likely take control.

Takeaway:

• The struggle highlights US policy dilemmas: regulating “Big Tech” vs. retaining American industry leadership.
• CN: “Now there is no longer an American company making a very popular household robot ... one more category of manufacturing we seem to be ceding to China.” ([04:13])

2. Interview with Colin Angle, iRobot Co-Founder ([05:50–24:13])

Why Did iRobot Go Bankrupt? ([05:52])

• CA: “It’s a complicated question. Simple to ask, hard to answer. We led ... We invented the category, and for 17, 18 years really grew the category. As it got more competitive, the world changed.”
• “Ultimately, bankruptcy happens when you need external help ... to take the next step.”

The Rise of Chinese Competitors ([07:29–08:03])

• Roborock cited as a chief rival entering the US in 2018.
• CA: “Chinese fast follower ... had access to the Chinese marketplace, which iRobot did not ... The Chinese government provided subsidies, direct subsidies to our competitors…”

The Lidar vs. Camera Debate ([09:58–11:43])

• CN probes why Roomba stuck with cameras for navigation instead of adopting Lidar, like competitors.
• CA, pushing back: “It’s wrong. Does your autonomous driving vehicle have a lidar on it? No. Because it’s a dead-end technology which gives you no situational awareness.”
• CA says the decision was strategic: “I was playing the Tesla card ... The maps you make with a camera are more rugged and robust to moving furniture... We explicitly decided not to put lidar on Roomba ... This was a strategy.”

Features Where iRobot Lagged ([12:03–13:40])

• KR: “Over time ... there started to feel like a gap between Roombas and ... Chinese competitors ... features like a wet mop ... that maybe make this thing a little more useful ... Are there other features ... you wish the Roomba had adopted earlier?”
• CA: “Honestly, we got wet mopping wrong ... We felt creating an independent mopping solution was the right strategy ... but the customer didn’t go for it. We reacted late and took some damage.”

The Amazon Acquisition Saga ([13:40–18:10])

• The attempted Amazon acquisition would have been a lifeline, but was blocked on antitrust grounds.
• CA: “If you were a fan of having consumer robotics being an industry where America could claim leadership, you needed iRobot to ... continue to innovate ... Doing what the European Commission, the FTC, are charged with doing is defending the worst abuses of monopoly ... But at the time, iRobot’s market share ... was declining. The market leader in Europe was ... in the marketplace for three years.”
• KR: “What was the Roomba’s market share in the US?”
  • CA: “Around 50% ... not overwhelming ... and the market share ... was going down.”

Was Blocking the Amazon Deal a Mistake? ([19:53–21:13])

• CA: “I have no logical answer ... I do not believe there is any economic rationale ... The consumer only lost ... It was not the reason [stated]. I believe IROBOT had nothing to do with the blocking ... we were roadkill.”
• He believes the decision was political, aimed at Amazon, not out of concern for consumer welfare or privacy.

Privacy Concerns with Roomba Data ([18:10–19:37])

• CA: “Images never leave the Roomba ... all use of cameras was done on the edge, on the robots ... All opt-in ... iRobot adheres to the highest level of cyber and security.”

The Broader Takeaway: The Future of American Robotics ([21:40–24:13])

• CA: “The tragedy of blocking the transaction is we did it to ourselves ... The net result ... was putting the consumer robot industry in a box, gift wrapping it and handing it to someone else.”
• “Markets are difficult to create, they’re fragile ... We need to reestablish confidence that the FTC’s role is to prevent abuses while catalyzing American competitiveness ... the Amazon attempted acquisition ... can serve as a lesson as we think about an industry which honestly could be a thousand times larger than robot vacuuming.”

3. Hosts’ Tech Predictions for 2026 ([26:22–56:12])

Prediction Recap – 2025 Results ([27:04–34:40])

• Casey’s High Confidence for 2025: “AI culture war begins.”

  • Congressional hearings, Republican attacks on chatbots’ political slant—this played out as predicted.
  • CN: “If you go back through the past 12 months ... you can see that ... [government and media] outrage [matched my expectation].” ([27:14])

• Kevin’s High Confidence for 2025: “A crypto meme coin would reach $100B and crash.”

  • Closest: Trump Meme coin peaked at $15B, then dropped to $1B.
  • CN: “That’s an F, my friend.” ([29:05])

• Medium Confidence:

  • CN: “Waymo would go mainstream”—KR pushes back, says they didn’t quite get there.
  • KR: “Apple would acquire Snap”—didn’t happen.

• Low Confidence:

  • CN: “X (Twitter) would be merged into XAI”—this did happen.
  • KR: “OpenAI declares AGI”—didn’t happen.

Notable Moment:
[32:23]

• CN: “Arguably I did go 3 for 3 and I’m told that our producers have made a sound effect. Wow, look at that. Thank you. That was very satisfying.”

Predictions for 2026

Casey’s Predictions ([34:40–46:14])

• High Confidence: “16+ becomes the new norm for social media accounts worldwide.”

  • By end of 2026, at least five more democracies will introduce similar under-16 bans as Australia.
  • CN: “I think it makes a lot of sense ... once you kick kids off these big mainstream apps.” ([35:37])

• Medium Confidence: “Democrats win big in the midterms by leaning into anti-AI sentiment.”

  • CN: “You have a bunch of Democrats still casting about for a message ... worried about environmental impact, job loss, and NIMBY behavior against data centers ... If we’ve learned one thing, NIMBY movements are powerful.” ([39:02])

• Low Confidence: “OpenAI is going to retire Sora, the text-to-video generator.”

  • CN: “I think by the end of 2026, Sora just looks like a big distraction ... and they’ll pivot to focusing on ChatGPT.” ([45:10])

Kevin’s Predictions ([36:18–51:24])

• High Confidence: “An AI company will solve one of the Millennium Prize problems.”

  • KR: “These are the hardest problems we don’t have solutions for. ... AI companies ... are watching these problems closely.” ([36:26])
  • Examples: The Riemann Hypothesis, Navier-Stokes Equations, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture.

• Medium Confidence: “A primarily AI generated [work] will be nominated for a major entertainment award” (Emmys, Grammys, Oscars, Tonys).

  • KR: “We have six AI or AI-assisted artists on the Billboard charts ... the Academy said AI use in films would neither help nor harm Oscar chances ... I predict an AI-generated work will be nominated.” ([41:28])
  • CN is highly skeptical, especially regarding film/TV, but thinks it could happen with the Grammys.

• Low Confidence: “Apple will replace Tim Cook after his retirement with an outside CEO.”

  • KR lists possible ‘dark horse’ candidates: Jony Ive, Brian Chesky, Mira Murati.
  • CN: “I have trouble seeing that happen ... unless ... [everyone else has left].”
  • KR: “That’s why it’s my low confidence prediction. But if it happens, I’ll be able to say ‘I told you so’.” ([51:30])

2026 “AI Bubble” Prediction ([52:05–55:25])

• KR: “Some economic turmoil as a result of AI in 2026 ... but I do not think we are going to see the kind of calamitous bubble pop market collapse that some have predicted ... Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic ... will mostly be fine.”
• CN: “I think things will still feel quite bubbly ... tens of billions more revenue to the frontier labs ... at the end of 2026, this whole engine is still going to be very hot.” ([54:33])

Notable Quote:

• KR: “2026 is the last year to buy a house in San Francisco. ... When [the IPOs] happen, employees get rich ... If you’re looking for real estate, the right time to buy was yesterday.” ([55:25])

4. A Hard Forkin’ Christmas Carol ([57:44–64:42])

Holiday Banter and Sweater Talk ([57:44–59:29])

• KR and CN describe their “ugliest holiday sweaters” on the YouTube livestream.
• CN: “This is my annual chance to remind you that Kevin is an accomplished singer and longtime choir member, while I have the singing voice of a broken harmonica.” ([58:28])

The Song: “A Hard Forkin’ Christmas” ([60:31–64:42])

A tech-world parody of “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” with lyrics referencing the year’s major tech events:

• “...On a Hard Forkin’ Christmas my true love gave to me, a bot trained on all our IP...”
• Followed by inside-joke verses: robot pants, code reds, humane pins, meme coins, Roblox scandals, Mecha Hitlers, meta reorgs, signal war chats, and “AI bubbles.”
• CN: “Can Ezra Klein do that? I don’t think so. Merry Christmas, you filthy animal.” ([64:42])

5. Notable Quotes & Moments

• Colin Angle on the Amazon deal:
  “I believe IROBOT was... roadkill.” ([21:05])

• On anti-trust regulation:
  CA: “Markets are fragile. They need to be nurtured, cared for. ... If nothing else, the tragedy of the Amazon attempted acquisition can serve as a lesson...” ([24:08])

• On tech predictions:
  CN: “If you’re batting a thousand, you’re doing it wrong.” ([51:49])

• On the bubble:
  KR: “If you are looking for real estate in San Francisco, the right time to buy was yesterday.” ([55:25])

• On the Christmas carol:
  CN: “This is the sweater I spent $50 on yesterday because it was the only sweater that could arrive in the studio on time.” ([58:44])

6. Episode Timeline

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------| | 00:32 | Disneyland tech fail icebreaker | | 01:50 | Show preview: Roomba, predictions, Xmas song | | 02:37 | Introduction of iRobot bankruptcy topic | | 05:50 | Colin Angle joins: Why iRobot failed | | 13:40 | Amazon acquisition saga | | 18:10 | Privacy/data use debate | | 21:40 | Future of American robotics/FTC critique | | 24:13 | Interview ends | | 26:22 | 2025 predictions recap | | 34:40 | High/medium/low confidence predictions for 2026 | | 52:05 | “AI bubble” predictions/discussion | | 57:44 | Holiday banter & sweaters | | 60:31 | “A Hard Forkin’ Christmas” carol | | 64:42 | Carol ends, outro & goodbyes |

Summary for New Listeners

This episode is a quintessential Hard Fork blend of accessible tech journalism, first-hand industry insights, and self-aware humor. The Roomba/iRobot story is not just about a robot’s bankruptcy, but resonates as a saga about American tech innovation, regulatory risk, and global competition. The predictions segment is thought-provoking and playful, offering listeners a sneak peek at tomorrow’s tech headlines—with the hosts keeping each other honest and humble about their record. And if you make it to the end, there’s a “so-bad-it’s-good” tech holiday carol you won’t forget.

Memorable, substantive, and unlike any other tech show on the air—this is Hard Fork at its most festive and reflective.