Podcast Summary: Hasan Minhaj Doesn’t Know

Episode: "Why the Stock Market Hasn’t Crashed Yet"

Guest: Paul Krugman (Nobel Prize-winning economist)
Date: November 12, 2025
Host: 186k Films (Paul F. Tompkins filling in)

Episode Overview

In this engaging and irreverent episode, comedian and host Paul F. Tompkins sits down with renowned economist Paul Krugman to dissect today’s economic chaos under President Trump’s administration. With the trademark blend of curiosity, skepticism, and humor that defines "Hasan Minhaj Doesn’t Know," the episode unpacks why the stock market hasn't crashed despite dire warnings, delves into the functions and independence of the Federal Reserve, discusses the reality of inflation, weighs the promises and failings of modern economic policy, debates capitalism and democracy, and takes several memorable detours—including a no-holds-barred critique of cryptocurrency.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Is the Economy? (03:39–05:58)

• Krugman explains the basics: The economy is the "ordinary business of life"—getting, spending, producing, and buying.
• Economic growth: Not just more "stuff" but improvements in quality of life can drive growth, even on a finite planet.
  • “Economic growth can be qualitative instead of quantitative... a rising standard of living, better quality of life.” — Krugman (05:24)
• Connection to environmental limits: Growth doesn’t require endless resource use; technology and policy can decouple them.

2. The Limits and Realities of Economic Expertise (06:07–07:37)

• “Economists say...”: All advice is not equal; Krugman warns about biases, especially from politicized think tanks or Wall Street-tied experts.
• Predictions & humility: Krugman reflects on his own infamous 1998 Internet prediction—“I was trolling a little bit. I was trying to get people’s attention.” (07:22)
• Tech’s real living standard impact has been more muted than many assume.

3. Inflation: Can Prices Ever Come Down? (09:00–12:22)

• Trump’s failed affordability promises: Krugman sees inflation rising under Trump, with tariffs and anti-immigrant policies pushing prices up.
• Unavoidable inflation: Historically, prices pretty much always rise (“a Snickers is going to be really expensive as time goes on” — Tompkins, 11:10).
• Good vs. bad inflation: 2% is the target—low, stable inflation is healthy, while deflation (falling prices) is a crisis.
  • “Any politician who promises to bring prices way down is either ignorant or lying or both.” — Krugman (12:13)

4. The Fed: Its Power and Why Independence Matters (12:22–15:23)

• Central bank’s immense power: The Fed can make fast, substantial changes (“It’s the easiest thing in the world. There’s no friction.” — Krugman, 13:48).
• Why independence: Protects monetary policy from political manipulation—using examples like Turkey and Argentina where strongmen wreaked havoc.
• Trump and the Fed: If the Fed lost its autonomy, Krugman warns economic chaos would quickly follow.
  • “Deciding what the interest rate should be is something that at least requires you to... read some history.” — Krugman (15:23)

5. Stock Market Vs. Main Street: Why Hasn’t the Market Crashed? (16:10–19:23)

• Stock market psychology: The market often defies logic and isn’t a direct indicator of underlying economic health. Krugman quotes Samuelson: “The stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions.”
• Trump boosts the market for the rich: Tax cuts have helped, and markets assume worst-case policies won’t pass (“Markets don’t believe he’s going to manage to take control of the Federal Reserve. I think the markets are probably wrong on that.” — Krugman, 16:46).
• Huge economies are hard to break: “It takes really major stupidity to really wreck an economy that size. And we're working on it.” — Krugman (16:58)

6. Inequality and Economic Realities for Different Americans (19:23–21:22)

• Two Americas: Asset holders vs. paycheck-to-paycheck—the rich have gained far more.
• Occasional reversals: Under Biden, bottom-half workers saw gains, though that has reversed recently.
• History’s lesson: The “Great Compression” after WWII rapidly leveled the economic playing field—a repeat is possible, but not likely soon.

7. Manufacturing, the Dollar, and Reserve Currency Myths (25:12–27:27)

• Manufacturing jobs decline: “The main reason we don’t have a lot of manufacturing jobs anymore is that we're just very efficient at producing manufactured goods.” — Krugman (25:25)
• Dollar’s reserve status: Losing reserve status would matter little to Americans; continuity matters more globally.
  • “The real risk is not that something replaces the dollar, but that nothing does.” — Krugman (28:03)

8. Crypto: Scam or Innovation? (28:15–30:24)

• Krugman’s take: “I think crypto is basically a scam.” (28:17)
• Legitimate uses? He can’t identify any—crypto is used primarily for speculation and crime.
• Cult mentality: Rapid price rises keeps believers fervent (“it’s a cult...” — Krugman, 30:03).

9. Taxes, Incentives, and Migration Myths (30:24–33:22)

• Do higher taxes drive the wealthy away? “People say they're gonna leave and mostly they don't.” — Krugman (30:54)
• Work continues despite high taxes: New Yorkers with ~55% marginal tax rates are “not lazy,” proving high rates don’t kill economic activity.
• Optimal top tax rates: “Good economics says... the optimal tax rate... is 73%.” — Krugman (33:00)

10. Free Trade: Promise vs. Reality (33:22–37:18)

• Actual free trade is just borderless commerce—Krugman supports it for poor countries’ exports.
• So-called “free trade agreements” often protect monopolies (like Big Pharma), not genuine trade:
  • “A lot of things that are called free trade agreements... are really not about free trade.” (36:20)

11. Can Free Markets and Authoritarianism Coexist? (39:38–44:30)

• Trade builds peace, but not democracy: “The idea that free trade brings democracy... No, of course not.” — Krugman (41:37)
• Authoritarianism undermines markets: Over time, unchecked power leads to cronyism, not genuine capitalism.
• Oligarchs won’t save democracy: “The wealthy elite never stands up. They’re the last people you can count on.” — Krugman (44:11)

12. Lightning Round: Mythbusting and Final Perspectives (44:33–48:36)

• Tax cuts don’t pay for themselves: “No.” — Krugman (44:39)
• Raising taxes on rich is not economically catastrophic.
• Justice vs. efficiency: “The measure of economy is, does it give people good lives?” — Krugman (45:48)
• Nobel Prize for Economics? Mixed feelings, but sees value in recognizing real contributions.
• Capitalism and democracy: Only compatible with limits on wealth concentration; extreme inequality threatens democracy.
  • “I don't think we can have people as rich as Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and still sustain a democratic system.” — Krugman (47:53)
• Optimism about the future? Krugman admits to being “quite terrified on multiple fronts” (47:59), citing democracy and climate change.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On inflation and monetary manipulation:
  • "Any politician who promises to bring prices way down is either ignorant or lying or both." — Paul Krugman (12:13)
• On crypto:
  • “I think crypto is basically a scam.” — Krugman (28:17)
  • “It’s technobabble plus libertarian derp.” — Krugman (30:13)
• On the wealthy fleeing taxes:
  • “People say they're gonna leave and mostly they don't.” — Krugman (30:54)
• On democracy and wealth:
  • “We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.” — Louis Brandeis, quoted by Tompkins (47:26)
  • "I don't think we can have people as rich as Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and still sustain a democratic system." — Krugman (47:53)
• On optimism for the future:
  • "No, I'm actually quite terrified on multiple fronts." — Krugman (47:59)
• On the cult of cryptocurrency:
  • “It’s a cult... and the price has gone up, so people who bought in early feel very smart.” — Krugman (30:03)

Timestamps By Topic

• 03:47 — Defining “the economy”
• 05:24 — Economic growth vs. environmental limits
• 07:22 — Krugman on his infamous internet prediction
• 09:00 — Trump, inflation & the price of affordability
• 10:44 — The reality of inflation and its necessity
• 12:22 — The Federal Reserve explained
• 16:10 — Why hasn’t the stock market crashed?
• 19:23 — Inequality, wage growth, and the two economies
• 25:12 — Why manufacturing jobs won’t return
• 26:01 — The myth of the dollar’s reserve privilege
• 28:17 — Krugman calls crypto a scam
• 30:24 — Taxes: migration myths and the reality
• 33:22 — Free trade vs. trade agreements
• 39:38 — Can trade foster democracy?
• 41:44 — Authoritarianism, oligarchs, and democracy’s fragility
• 44:33 — Lightning Round (“Mythbusting”)
• 47:26 — Can capitalism coexist with democracy?
• 47:59 — Is Krugman optimistic? (Spoiler: Not really)

Tone & Language

Throughout, the tone is lively, irreverent, and fiercely intellectual—melding Krugman’s sharp academic perspective with Tompkins’ wry, comedic candor. The discussion is brisk, grounded, and unafraid to call out economic myths, political absurdities, or the limits of expertise. Krugman’s answers are clear, unvarnished, and often biting; Tompkins keeps the conversation accessible and humor-infused, frequently poking fun at himself, economists, and broader political culture.

This summary provides a comprehensive map of the episode’s subjects, highlights the sharpest arguments and quotes, and distills the often-complex economic discussion into approachable, memorable takeaways.