Why the Stock Market Hasn’t Crashed Yet - with Paul Krugman

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Hasan Minhaj Doesn’t Know

Episode: "Why the Stock Market Hasn’t Crashed Yet"

Guest: Paul Krugman (Nobel Prize-winning economist)
Date: November 12, 2025
Host: 186k Films (Paul F. Tompkins filling in)

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Episode Overview

In this engaging and irreverent episode, comedian and host Paul F. Tompkins sits down with renowned economist Paul Krugman to dissect today’s economic chaos under President Trump’s administration. With the trademark blend of curiosity, skepticism, and humor that defines "Hasan Minhaj Doesn’t Know," the episode unpacks why the stock market hasn't crashed despite dire warnings, delves into the functions and independence of the Federal Reserve, discusses the reality of inflation, weighs the promises and failings of modern economic policy, debates capitalism and democracy, and takes several memorable detours—including a no-holds-barred critique of cryptocurrency.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Is the Economy? (03:39–05:58)

• Krugman explains the basics: The economy is the "ordinary business of life"—getting, spending, producing, and buying.
• Economic growth: Not just more "stuff" but improvements in quality of life can drive growth, even on a finite planet.
  • “Economic growth can be qualitative instead of quantitative... a rising standard of living, better quality of life.” — Krugman (05:24)
• Connection to environmental limits: Growth doesn’t require endless resource use; technology and policy can decouple them.

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2. The Limits and Realities of Economic Expertise (06:07–07:37)

• “Economists say...”: All advice is not equal; Krugman warns about biases, especially from politicized think tanks or Wall Street-tied experts.
• Predictions & humility: Krugman reflects on his own infamous 1998 Internet prediction—“I was trolling a little bit. I was trying to get people’s attention.” (07:22)
• Tech’s real living standard impact has been more muted than many assume.

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3. Inflation: Can Prices Ever Come Down? (09:00–12:22)

• Trump’s failed affordability promises: Krugman sees inflation rising under Trump, with tariffs and anti-immigrant policies pushing prices up.
• Unavoidable inflation: Historically, prices pretty much always rise (“a Snickers is going to be really expensive as time goes on” — Tompkins, 11:10).
• Good vs. bad inflation: 2% is the target—low, stable inflation is healthy, while deflation (falling prices) is a crisis.
  • “Any politician who promises to bring prices way down is either ignorant or lying or both.” — Krugman (12:13)

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4. The Fed: Its Power and Why Independence Matters (12:22–15:23)

• Central bank’s immense power: The Fed can make fast, substantial changes (“It’s the easiest thing in the world. There’s no friction.” — Krugman, 13:48).
• Why independence: Protects monetary policy from political manipulation—using examples like Turkey and Argentina where strongmen wreaked havoc.
• Trump and the Fed: If the Fed lost its autonomy, Krugman warns economic chaos would quickly follow.
  • “Deciding what the interest rate should be is something that at least requires you to... read some history.” — Krugman (15:23)

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5. Stock Market Vs. Main Street: Why Hasn’t the Market Crashed? (16:10–19:23)

• Stock market psychology: The market often defies logic and isn’t a direct indicator of underlying economic health. Krugman quotes Samuelson: “The stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions.”
• Trump boosts the market for the rich: Tax cuts have helped, and markets assume worst-case policies won’t pass (“Markets don’t believe he’s going to manage to take control of the Federal Reserve. I think the markets are probably wrong on that.” — Krugman, 16:46).
• Huge economies are hard to break: “It takes really major stupidity to really wreck an economy that size. And we're working on it.” — Krugman (16:58)

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6. Inequality and Economic Realities for Different Americans (19:23–21:22)

• Two Americas: Asset holders vs. paycheck-to-paycheck—the rich have gained far more.
• Occasional reversals: Under Biden, bottom-half workers saw gains, though that has reversed recently.
• History’s lesson: The “Great Compression” after WWII rapidly leveled the economic playing field—a repeat is possible, but not likely soon.

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7. Manufacturing, the Dollar, and Reserve Currency Myths (25:12–27:27)

• Manufacturing jobs decline: “The main reason we don’t have a lot of manufacturing jobs anymore is that we're just very efficient at producing manufactured goods.” — Krugman (25:25)
• Dollar’s reserve status: Losing reserve status would matter little to Americans; continuity matters more globally.
  • “The real risk is not that something replaces the dollar, but that nothing does.” — Krugman (28:03)

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8. Crypto: Scam or Innovation? (28:15–30:24)

• Krugman’s take: “I think crypto is basically a scam.” (28:17)
• Legitimate uses? He can’t identify any—crypto is used primarily for speculation and crime.
• Cult mentality: Rapid price rises keeps believers fervent (“it’s a cult...” — Krugman, 30:03).

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9. Taxes, Incentives, and Migration Myths (30:24–33:22)

• Do higher taxes drive the wealthy away? “People say they're gonna leave and mostly they don't.” — Krugman (30:54)
• Work continues despite high taxes: New Yorkers with ~55% marginal tax rates are “not lazy,” proving high rates don’t kill economic activity.
• Optimal top tax rates: “Good economics says... the optimal tax rate... is 73%.” — Krugman (33:00)

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10. Free Trade: Promise vs. Reality (33:22–37:18)

• Actual free trade is just borderless commerce—Krugman supports it for poor countries’ exports.
• So-called “free trade agreements” often protect monopolies (like Big Pharma), not genuine trade:
  • “A lot of things that are called free trade agreements... are really not about free trade.” (36:20)

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11. Can Free Markets and Authoritarianism Coexist? (39:38–44:30)

• Trade builds peace, but not democracy: “The idea that free trade brings democracy... No, of course not.” — Krugman (41:37)
• Authoritarianism undermines markets: Over time, unchecked power leads to cronyism, not genuine capitalism.
• Oligarchs won’t save democracy: “The wealthy elite never stands up. They’re the last people you can count on.” — Krugman (44:11)

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12. Lightning Round: Mythbusting and Final Perspectives (44:33–48:36)

• Tax cuts don’t pay for themselves: “No.” — Krugman (44:39)
• Raising taxes on rich is not economically catastrophic.
• Justice vs. efficiency: “The measure of economy is, does it give people good lives?” — Krugman (45:48)
• Nobel Prize for Economics? Mixed feelings, but sees value in recognizing real contributions.
• Capitalism and democracy: Only compatible with limits on wealth concentration; extreme inequality threatens democracy.
  • “I don't think we can have people as rich as Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and still sustain a democratic system.” — Krugman (47:53)
• Optimism about the future? Krugman admits to being “quite terrified on multiple fronts” (47:59), citing democracy and climate change.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On inflation and monetary manipulation:
  • "Any politician who promises to bring prices way down is either ignorant or lying or both." — Paul Krugman (12:13)
• On crypto:
  • “I think crypto is basically a scam.” — Krugman (28:17)
  • “It’s technobabble plus libertarian derp.” — Krugman (30:13)
• On the wealthy fleeing taxes:
  • “People say they're gonna leave and mostly they don't.” — Krugman (30:54)
• On democracy and wealth:
  • “We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.” — Louis Brandeis, quoted by Tompkins (47:26)
  • "I don't think we can have people as rich as Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and still sustain a democratic system." — Krugman (47:53)
• On optimism for the future:
  • "No, I'm actually quite terrified on multiple fronts." — Krugman (47:59)
• On the cult of cryptocurrency:
  • “It’s a cult... and the price has gone up, so people who bought in early feel very smart.” — Krugman (30:03)

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Timestamps By Topic

• 03:47 — Defining “the economy”
• 05:24 — Economic growth vs. environmental limits
• 07:22 — Krugman on his infamous internet prediction
• 09:00 — Trump, inflation & the price of affordability
• 10:44 — The reality of inflation and its necessity
• 12:22 — The Federal Reserve explained
• 16:10 — Why hasn’t the stock market crashed?
• 19:23 — Inequality, wage growth, and the two economies
• 25:12 — Why manufacturing jobs won’t return
• 26:01 — The myth of the dollar’s reserve privilege
• 28:17 — Krugman calls crypto a scam
• 30:24 — Taxes: migration myths and the reality
• 33:22 — Free trade vs. trade agreements
• 39:38 — Can trade foster democracy?
• 41:44 — Authoritarianism, oligarchs, and democracy’s fragility
• 44:33 — Lightning Round (“Mythbusting”)
• 47:26 — Can capitalism coexist with democracy?
• 47:59 — Is Krugman optimistic? (Spoiler: Not really)

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Tone & Language

Throughout, the tone is lively, irreverent, and fiercely intellectual—melding Krugman’s sharp academic perspective with Tompkins’ wry, comedic candor. The discussion is brisk, grounded, and unafraid to call out economic myths, political absurdities, or the limits of expertise. Krugman’s answers are clear, unvarnished, and often biting; Tompkins keeps the conversation accessible and humor-infused, frequently poking fun at himself, economists, and broader political culture.

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This summary provides a comprehensive map of the episode’s subjects, highlights the sharpest arguments and quotes, and distills the often-complex economic discussion into approachable, memorable takeaways.

Transcript

[Paul F. Tompkins]

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[Paul Krugman]

Lemonade.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

You like Miami?

[Paul Krugman]

No, I don't like Miami.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Same. I don't know what the is going on there.

[Paul Krugman]

It's not my favorite place. But, you know, there was a quote, there was an article about, you know, Wall street types trying to move to Florida. One of them said that the problem with moving to Florida is that you have to live in Florida.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman wrote for the New York Times for 25 years. But those stuffed shirts at the Times just couldn't handle the heat from those. Krugman takes the fire. He was spitting, so he left last year for substack where he can let his freak flag fly. So I asked Professor Krugman to come on the show to help me make sense of the economic chaos President Trump is unleashing on the country and the world. I also asked him his thoughts on crypto.

[Paul Krugman]

I think crypto is basically A scam.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Whether the Nobel Prize for Economics is basically just a kid's choice award for intellectuals. You get a surfboard and if he's getting in touch with his inner Chapo trap house on substack. Paul, you team Luigi or what? Hurry right away. No delays are. Make your daddy glad.

[Paul Krugman]

You have had such a laugh.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

You were at a huge institution for two and a half decades and now we get to see Krugman and Lee. This goes pretty hard in the paint this. The title of this on your sub stack is Health Insurance is a Racket.

[Paul Krugman]

I think I would have been able to say that for 24 years at the Times. Not sure in the last year I would have gotten away with it.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I mean, would they have let you ran that photo? Well, as a crazy.

[Paul Krugman]

Christ. I mean, that is crazy. I mean, I don't approve of murder, but you know, one of the rules of, you know, blogging and now sub stacking is pick an eye grabbing picture as part of the.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Right, right.

[Paul Krugman]

You know, part of the service.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Let's zoom out. Literally.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So this is planet Earth.

[Paul Krugman]

Okay.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

We live here. Allegedly.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

And the economy happens here. What is the economy?

[Paul Krugman]

Alfred Marshall, great Victorian economist, said that it's the ordinary business of life, if you like. It's the least interesting part of what human beings do. It's getting and spending, producing stuff, selling it, buying stuff. It's the kind of relatively materialistic side of life. But it's just. There's no hard and fast line between economics and other stuff. But generally speaking, if it involves producing or buying or selling, then it's economics as the economy.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Every time I listen to a president over the course of history, they always talk about economic growth.

[Paul Krugman]

The fastest pace of economic growth in this country in nearly four decades.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

We've seen the fastest economic growth in over a decade. The fastest economic growth in more than 30 years.

[Paul Krugman]

4% economic growth. Americans can be confident about our economic.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Growth, but apparently the economy is supposed to just grow forever. Yeah, but this stays the same size.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah. That is less of a paradox than you think, because the economy is. We define economic growth by the value of stuff, which is not the same as the volume of stuff. Britain emits less carbon dioxide per capita than it did in the 50s, the 1850s. A modern economy can run with very low emissions. We have the technology to do that and it produces all these valuable stuff. So there's no one to one link between economic growth and consumption of resources or damage to the environment. In some ways you can actually. In some ways economic growth Makes it easier to have a clean economy because we can afford to do things to clean it up. So that's sort of, you know, finite planet. How can we have infinite economic growth? Is missing the point that really economic growth can be qualitative instead of quantitative. You know, we say economic growth, but what we really mean is a rising standard of living, better quality of life. And there's no reason we can't keep on improving the quality of life without. On a finite planet. Now, the problem is that that takes policies. You need to do it right. But it can be done.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Sometimes when I watch the news, I'll hear newscasters also say, economists say Economists say Economists say Many economists say economists say no, economists say economists say Economists.

[Paul Krugman]

Say Economists say so many economists say economists.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Every economist in the country says when people hear economists say, should they see it as fact or as opinion?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, that's a favorite beef of mine. And in general, it really, really depends. Unfortunately, you need some guidance as to who to believe and who to trust. If it's a economist who works for a highly politicized think tank. No. As an economist who works for Wall street, well, there are some I trust and some who are basically selling stock. So it's. There are certainly a bunch of. There are a lot of really good economists in America, in the world. And the trouble, I guess, for everybody else is to know who they are.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Have you always felt a hesitance to make predictions as an economist? Because, as you know, one of the famous Krugman memes was your meme about the Internet in 1998, although people don't.

[Paul Krugman]

Know is that that was partially a joke. If you read the actual article I was assigned to write, as if I was looking back from 100 years in the future.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So you were trolling.

[Paul Krugman]

I was trolling a little bit. I was trying to get people's attention.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

No, no, no, because, Paul, I've had egg certainly splattered on my face. I don't know if you've seen this meme with me. It says, Sega Saturn is the greatest video game system ever. Nothing will ever beat it. Trust me, bro, with the zero.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, I was skeptical a bit about the potential of the Internet. I was wrong on some of it. Although if you actually look at the rise in living standards since the broadband became universal, it actually is kind of disappointing. The sort of truth they'll never tell you is that if you're actually looking for the payoff to all of this high tech, it's a little elusive.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Meaning the actual way out for technology and the Internet, if you actually look.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, if you actually look at, you know, how much can an average worker afford to buy? That hasn't gone up all that much with all of this technology. Now, there are some things that were not available before. You know, I spend a lot of my evenings watching live musical performances on npr. Tiny desk, of course, npr, tiny desk. And then I follow up the bands I like. Every weekday substack post ends with a musical clip. So there are some things that the Internet has made possible, but a lot of people were expecting a real boom in manufacturing productivity or a real reduction in the cost of living relative to wages out of the Internet. And so far that hasn't happened.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Let's take a look in a snapshot of where we're at right now. The President Donald Trump promised that he was going to make America more affordable again. How's that going?

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, that's going badly. I mean, the inflation has picked up some. It will pick up more because of all these tariffs are raising the cost of imported goods. Some of the other stuff. We're starting to see food prices tick up and it's going to get worse because of the deportations, because who do you think picks crops in America? He had no plan to do that. It was, I'm going to magically make prices go down. And in fact, most of the things he's doing are going to make them go up.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Can I ask a question? Do prices ever go down? So not to brag. I am a road comedian. I do both A, B and C markets. No matter where I go in this great country, I'll hear three things. The rent is too damn high. Have you seen the price of gas? And back in my day, a piece of candy used to be a nickel. Isn't inflation always going to be a part of the equation? Meaning candy's never going to be a nickel, you boomer.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, it's. We haven't seen prices go down ever.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Right.

[Paul Krugman]

Well, you have to go back to the 19th century. We actually had deflation. Well, we had deflation in the 1930s, which was not fun. And we had deflation in the late 19th century, which was not fun in general. It's kind of a consensus among economists that a little bit of inflation is actually 2%. Right? Yeah, 2% is the official target. And there's a little bit of magic went into coming up with that number. But an economy runs a little bit better with 2% inflation than it would with zero inflation. And falling prices is a really bad thing. It was a plague. Japan had falling prices for a couple of decades.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

That's known as deflation. Correct?

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah. Overall prices, basically, overall prices rise because in the end, the Federal Reserve chooses to do its best to make sure that they rise a little bit.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So when a politician repeatedly says, I'm going to bring prices down, is it just safe to say, don't believe it? It's virtually impossible?

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

The only way, minus gas for some reason, gas I've seen can skyrocket and then go back down and then skyrocket again. But pretty much everything else, look, a Snickers is going to be really expensive as time goes on. That's what I've learned.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah. I mean, the price of soybeans or the price of wheat fluctuate and to some extent that ends up in, you know, price of eggs has been a real roller coaster up and down. So they were up and then they were down and they're going up again. And that's because that's the kind of market where they're really. It's just not like the market for streaming services or something. And you know, that's basically bird flu comes and goes and that's what's driving the price of eggs. But the overall cost of living, your best guess is that that's going to rise 2% a year for the foreseeable future. Because the Federal Reserve wants it to rise 2% a year for the foreseeable future. The only way that can change is if we get somebody like Donald Trump who gets his hands on monetary policy and decides that he wants to, you know, roll the printing presses. And any, any politician who promises to bring prices way down is either ignorant. Ignorant or lying or both.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I'm so glad that you mentioned the Fed and the President. Two part question. What is the Fed and why is it important that the Fed is independent from the President?

[Paul Krugman]

Okay, so basically the Fed controls the amount of money in circulation. And the reason. And that can have a tremendously powerful influence. It depends on the circumstances. But there have been times when the economy was terrible shape, 10% unemployment, and the Fed said, okay, it's time to roll the printing presses and the economy went zooming up. Or when the Fed decides that we should suffer, which it sometimes does, because they want to bring inflation down, we suffer. So the Fed is enormously powerful. The reason that we want to keep it quasi independent. It's too easy to use. The problem with monetary policy is it's almost frictionless. Other stuff, if you want to spend money or raise taxes or whatever, you have to pass legislation Through Congress. It has to be debated. There's time to think about it. The way that the Fed loosens monetary policy, the way the Fed reduces interest rates is a group of people get together, have a meeting in Washington for two days.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

How many people is it? So it's Jerome Powell. And how many people.

[Paul Krugman]

Oh, gosh, I should know the size of the Open Market Committee, and I don't. They call up the Open market desk in New York.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Yeah.

[Paul Krugman]

And the open market desks, actually, at this point, I think they just tap a few. Make a few clicks on their computers to buy or sell treasury bills from banks. That's. So it's absolutely. It's the easiest thing in the world. There's no. There's no friction. There's no slowdown.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

This really does sound like some secret society stuff, though.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Because it's a small, clandestine meeting, and it can shape monetary policy and economics for the country, if not the world.

[Paul Krugman]

Right. Yeah. But it turned out that having a bunch of technocrats with a really strong professional ethos managing this thing was a way to preserve a fair bit of stability while also preserving a fair bit of flexibility. Nothing is perfect, but that's a solution that has served us pretty well for, you know, for generations now. And you really. We know what happens if you don't do it. You get Turkey, where, you know, you have a president who has people telling him what he wants to hear, and Argentina as well. Argentina. But the Turkish one is the most recent example. And by the time, you know, he was. He finally said, maybe these economists telling me I'm doing the wrong thing might know something. They had 80% inflation.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Donald Trump is obsessed with the Fed and with interest rates. If it was up to him, he would basically have a thermostat on his desk in the Oval Office where he could just control interest rates. Why is it important that these two bodies be separate?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, if you like, our system is designed to protect us against people like Donald Trump. Deciding what the interest rate should be is something that at least requires you to have spent some, you know, read some history, paid some attention to how the whole thing works. You don't want somebody who just believes what he wants to believe and is surrounded by people who tell him what he wants to hear, to be free to set this very powerful policy tool wherever he feels like.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

If Trump policies are so bad, I keep reading how awful his economic policies are and clearly kind of in the vibes of our conversation right now. You're not a fan of his economic policies, why hasn't the stock market crashed.

[Paul Krugman]

The stock market, first of all, does what it's going to do. Paul Samuelson, one of my old mentors, famously said that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions. The stock market is psychological. And one thing that Trump is doing is he's definitely cutting taxes on rich people, which is good for the stock market. A lot of people believe that in the end he won't follow through on some of the worst stuff. You can definitely look and say that markets don't believe that he's going to manage to take control of the Federal Reserve. I think the markets are probably wrong on that, but that's what the markets believe right now.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

What does that mean, the markets believe?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, we can look at interest rates. If you really thought that we were going to turn into Turkey or Argentina, then 10 year interest rates should be going through the roof. And they're not the main thing, I think, to say about the economy. You always need to remember that we've got something like 160 million workers. GDP is $30 trillion. It takes a lot. It takes really major stupidity to really wreck an economy that size. And we're working on it.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Yes. If Donald Trump could control interest rates, what would that do to the stock market?

[Paul Krugman]

I think that the markets would panic pretty soon. I mean, if he really gets to. I think the markets are insufficiently worried, but. Okay, more than you want to know. But right now.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

No, please tell me more.

[Paul Krugman]

It looks like Trump is failing to fire Lisa Cook. He's going to appoint somebody, probably appoint somebody really not too bright as Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jay Powell. But the chairman is not a dictator. There is this committee that votes and whoever he appoints is very likely to be outvoted whenever he tries to do irresponsible stuff. So people are kind of betting that despite all of the craziness, that they won't actually.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So is the Fed kind of like the Supreme Court, but he actually has less say on the Fed than he does on the Supreme Court?

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, I always used to say that the Fed is kind of like the Supreme Court, that in fact it is designed to be ultimately accountable to the voters, but very ultimately and with a lot of insulation. And yeah, at this point, the Fed is acting a lot more like what it's supposed to be than the Supreme Court is.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Right. Because obviously presidents can famously get Supreme Court justices appointed, but the President can't do that with the Fed. Correct?

[Paul Krugman]

No, ultimately he does. I mean, it's a little complicated, the whole thing, but if you Had a president who stayed in office for 20 years, he would eventually have a Federal Reserve Board and an open market committee, which is not quite the same thing. But eventually the whole Fed system would be at his beck and call. But it takes a long time.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I feel like there's two conversations happening in regards to the economy. And I think it's between the asset class, basically people who have enough money to own stocks, whether that's Fang or the S&P 500 or just basic index funds, and then the non asset class, people that are literally putting together money for rent, a car note and groceries. Is there a disconnect between the two people talking?

[Paul Krugman]

Look, the economy is not the same for everybody. In fact, one of the hallmarks of America since the 70s has been rising inequality, where the top we call the 1%. But when people say the 1%, their mental picture is really like more the 0.01% is the very wealthy have had incredible gains. And then there's the sort of typical worker who probably has over the last 40 years seen his or her wages grow faster than inflation, but not by that much. During the Biden years, when everybody was so angry, there was actually really big wage gains for workers near the bottom. Actually the bottom Half of U.S. workers were doing really well. Now that's gone into reverse lately. But there are periods when it's not always the case that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Sometimes it goes the other way.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So you're saying there are times where the poor do get richer?

[Paul Krugman]

Oh yeah. I mean, of course there's this miraculous thing that happened in the 1940s when we somehow came out of World War II. I grew up in a middle class society. I grew up in the 50s and 60s in a world where plumbers made as much or more than middle managers and where there were very few extremely rich people. That society didn't evolve gradually. That society was created rather abruptly by FDR mostly during World War II. And it stuck for about 30 years. That was a tremendous equalization. The great compression we call can happen. You know, I would love to see another great compression happen, but not under the current administration. Anyway.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

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[Paul Krugman]

Well, manufacturing employment is declining so far on his watch. And look, fundamentally, can't be done. The main reason we don't have a lot of manufacturing jobs anymore is that we're just very efficient at producing manufactured goods. And it doesn't take a lot of people in manufacturing. So we're in an economy where jobs are in other things, and that's okay. What happened to farming? There are hardly any farmers left in America. Really. There's a whole lot fewer cashiers than there used to be. That's okay, because people can find other stuff. It's only making sure not that you have particular jobs, but that there are enough jobs in total and that they pay decent wages.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Hypothetically, would it be bad if the US Dollar was no longer the world's.

[Paul Krugman]

Reserve currency for the US it would matter hardly at all, really. People think that it's a tremendous privilege and it's not really worth all that much to the U.S. i mean, a lot of those Benjamins, a lot of those hundred dollar bills are being held by drug lords and whatever around the world. And that's like a zero interest rate.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Paul, I told you, I like tipping people out with it. I am not a drug lord.

[Paul Krugman]

Okay? But it's not really all that important. Britain, the British pound used to be a global currency and that sort of went away in the late 1960s and early 1970s. And you look for evidence that that hurt Britain and you don't find it. But what is really important, it is really important for the world to have something that everybody accepts. Another one of my old teachers, Charlie Kindleberger, had this great essay comparing the use of the dollar in world commerce to the use of English as an international language. It's kind of nice if those of us who are monolingual in English. It's kind of nice that everybody in the world sort of speaks English. But the main thing is it's important that there be an international language. And the dollar plays a really important role because it is the universally accepted standard. You can put up U.S. treasury bills as collateral for anything, and that reduces friction, makes world business work.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So it's not in the best interest for the United States as a country. If bitcoin were to become the world reserve currency.

[Paul Krugman]

That ain't going to happen. Because bitcoin is. The whole point about the dollar is it's really easy to use and bitcoin is not easy to use. But whatever it is, Paul, I don't.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Want to get memed. The bitcoin boys have already come after me. I don't want to get memed.

[Paul Krugman]

Please. I've made some money off crypto because I get invited to crypto conferences as a designated enemy and get paid a fee.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Oh, shit. In bitcoin and btc?

[Paul Krugman]

No, in dollars. I am not going to take btc.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Got to take BTC on the speaking gig.

[Paul Krugman]

No people who are serious about this stuff, which kind of includes me because one of the things I worked at for decades, the real risk is not that something replaces the dollar, but that nothing does.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

What is your take on crypto and where do you see it going?

[Paul Krugman]

I think crypto is basically a scam.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Oh, you agree with Taleb. Open Ponzi, but Taleb's now adjusted his take on that.

[Paul Krugman]

No, we can document. I mean, there is essentially no legitimate use for crypto and nobody's using it for anything legitimate. Fewer than 2% of Americans have ever made a payment in crypto. It's purely a speculative asset or a vehicle for crime. It's used for money laundering and extortion and blackmail.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Blackmail?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, if you want to blackmail somebody, you want to be able to have a non or a difficult to trace payment. You get. You demand that you be paid in.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Bitcoin, but for real. You mean like organized crime? So you're saying like ISIS and actually.

[Paul Krugman]

North Korea has done a lot of. Has made extensive use of bitcoin to extract, to steal money.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So you're saying Al Qaeda and Venezuelan gangs are just in their crypto wallets exchanging btc?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, actually they're mostly using tether. They're mostly using stablecoins these days. But yeah, but no, I, I know a Consulting firm that had their computers, ransomware, and the. They paid and they were. And the payment wasn't btc. So it's, it's the most amazing thing. You can not find any. I've been in many, many meetings where we actually, me and my friends, my economist friends, you know, as sympathetically as possible ask, explain to us what function, what legitimate function does this stuff serve and have never gotten an answer.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Well, if it's so bad, why will the comments of this video be filled with people screaming at us, calling us idiots?

[Paul Krugman]

Oh, because it's a cult and the fact of the matter is the price has gone up. So people who bought in early feel very smart. But there's a, you know, my line about, about crypto is that it's technobabble plus libertarian derp. And that's pretty much it still. But people are very passionate about it.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Every time a left leaning politician suggests that raising taxes would be beneficial to the general public, a lot of business owners and people that live in Greenwich start screaming and say they are leaving. I'm out.

[Paul Krugman]

I suppose at sufficiently high tax rates, people would move. But part of my, part of what I like to say when people, first of all, people say they're going to leave and mostly they don't.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Oh, is it, is this like my friends in 2016 when Trump won and they said they're going to Canada?

[Paul Krugman]

Some of that.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

And I'm like, Brandon, you're not going to Canada.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah. And even, even just moving from, I mean it does. There are a few very rich people have left London for Milan because they, they, the Brits changed their, their tax privileges. That sort of thing does happen. A few Wall street guys have moved to Miami, although there were a lot of predictions that the whole thing was gonna move.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Gunnar, you like Miami?

[Paul Krugman]

What?

[Paul F. Tompkins]

You like Miami.

[Paul Krugman]

No, I don't like Miami.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Same. I don't know what the fuck is going on there.

[Paul Krugman]

Well, my favorite quote, I have a.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Show in a couple weeks. I still don't know what the fuck is going on.

[Paul Krugman]

There was a guy. Yeah, it's a whole lot. It's not my favorite place. But you know, there was a quote, there was an article about Wall street types trying to move to Florida. One of them said that the problem with moving to Florida is that you have to live in Florida. When people say, you know, you gotta keep taxes low for incentives, I like to talk about, you know, so I live in New York City.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Yeah.

[Paul Krugman]

Which means that, you know, and I've done well, so I'm in the top Federal tax bracket, plus there's this New York state tax, plus there's the city tax and put it all together and I've got a marginal tax rate, an extra dollar, I make probably about 55 cents of it goes to government, so. And that's true of anybody who sort of upper middle class, anyone in the three or four top percent in New York City who has earned income. I'm not talking about private equity or hedge fund guys, but like the Movie Wall Street. 400,000 a year working Wall street stiff. You've all noticed how slow moving and lazy people are in New York because why bother to work hard given the tax? Obviously not. It's obvious that tax rates at the level, sort of 55% tax rate on upper income earned income New Yorkers is not enough to really make people stop working. So high taxes. And I remember AOC getting a lot of grief because she said that the top tax rate should be 70% and ignorant. She actually was talking to my friend Joe Stiglitz, who's one of the world's greatest economists, who has this very carefully sourced, researched paper on what is the optimal tax rate on top incomes. And the paper actually says 73%. So this is actually good economics says that, yeah, we should. You don't want to soak the rich so much that it's really not worth at all striving. But when somebody says that terrible things will happen if you raise taxes on the rich, you might want to consider the source.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I grew up during a time when it was all about quote, free trade and quote, free trade agreements. What the fuck is free trade?

[Paul Krugman]

Oh no, that's. I don't think free trade is a particularly abstruse concept. It means that you don't pay a tax when you cross the border. When you bring stuff across the border, I mean, there's free trade. Look, I just spent some time in the Netherlands, lovely place by the way. And Rotterdam is one of the world's great ports. And a lot of stuff is unloaded at Rotterdam and then taken by train or truck on into Germany. There's no tax levied when a train or when a truck crosses. In fact, there's nothing when you cross the Dutch German border. It's just open and that's free trade. So it's free trade between the Netherlands and Germany. There is mostly, or there was mostly free trade between the U.S. canada and Mexico. There are no tariffs on most stuff that crossed our borders.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So you see it as generally positive.

[Paul Krugman]

Yes, I mean with exceptions. And there have always been, you Know there are. The people who put together the system were not stupid. I think they may have been a little too optimistic. But there's a. Both in US law and in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade which we're massively in violation of. But anyway, Article 22 basically says that forget everything else we said. If there's a national security concern, you can do what you need to do. We should have been protecting rare earths production. We shouldn't have allowed China to be producing all the rare earths for the world.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I mean there's been some pretty dark examples. I remember in the late 90s, South Africa was trying to import cheap generic AIDS drugs. But a major pharmaceutical company backed by the American government fought to protect their patents through the World Trade Organization.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

In a free trade agreement called the quote, trade related aspects of intellectual property rights. And as a result millions of people died.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah. Now there have been death. But that wasn't really about free trade. That was about.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

But wasn't it?

[Paul Krugman]

No, what's happened is a lot of free trade stuff got perverted. I used to teach about this.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

But you supported free trade, Right?

[Paul Krugman]

I support actual free trade, but not. This is protecting monopoly patent rights which is not about free trade. And we have, look, we have something cafta, Central American Free Trade Agreement. And you take a look at it, it turns out it has nothing to do with free trade. It's mostly about in fact pharmaceutical companies protecting their patents. So that's not what I've ever been for.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

So you're making a distinction between free trade and these actual free trade agreements.

[Paul Krugman]

Slash, there's a lot of things that are called free trade agreements that are really not about free trade.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Yeah. Because it feels kind of f ed up.

[Paul Krugman]

But some of them are.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

And I don't know, is there another way to say that? I don't know, it feels kind of up.

[Paul Krugman]

No. That you support and I wrote that.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I don't know how to even articulate it.

[Paul Krugman]

No, a lot of it is up, but mostly what it is is. It's. It's wolves in sheep's clothing. You have something that is really about protecting the interests of some interest group that's being sold under the banner of free trade. You know, if, if you ask, do I think that Bangladesh ought to be able to sell garments in the United States without facing high tariffs? Yes, I do. Because Bangladesh is a desperately poor country and this is what they live on. Do I think that U.S. pharmaceutical companies or whatever. And they're not really any countries, but do I think that Multinational pharmaceutical companies should be able to charge nosebleed prices for drugs in the third world. No. And that's not at all the same thing.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Hear me out. Thanksgiving is the most elite American holiday. It's all about gathering together, acknowledging the blessings in our lives, and enjoying delicious food. The way I know Thanksgiving is actually the best is because the average person I know has at least three of them. And no, I'm not talking about you children of divorce. I am talking about friendsgivings. Yes, the early Thanksgiving potlucks you do with your friends, then you'll do one with your co workers and then I'm basically eating a Thanksgiving feast every week of November. No other holiday has that. You're not celebrating multiple Valentine's Days. Well, I mean, if you are, that is more of a discussion for Maury Povich. Now for my 17 Thanksgiving dinners, I will be shopping at Whole Foods. They have unbeatable deals for the corner quality that they provide, like antibiotic free turkey starting at $1.49 a pound. I love the grab and go options like the creamy mashed russet potatoes and the new holiday berry pie. But if you really want to enjoy your day off, Whole Foods will cater your entire Thanksgiving dinner. Just order online at shop.wfm.com before November 25th. Shop everything you need for Thanksgiving right now at Whole Foods Market. Today's POD is brought to you by the International Planned Parenthood Federation, the world's largest network for sexual and reproductive health rights and justice. The fight for universal reproductive health isn't just an American issue. It is a global issue, a human one, because everybody has a story. And when people have power over their bodies, when they can access the care their bodies need, they can begin to write their own stories. IPPF is sharing some of these stories from women and health workers around the world who are fighting for sexual and reproductive dignity. And you can learn about people like Elena from Malawi who ended up giving birth while trying to walk to her nearest clinic for care. Go to ippf.org everybody to read their stories. Today I have a question. Does capitalism and authoritarianism go together? Because in the 90s, there was this narrative that China was going to open itself up to American markets and American businesses. And once there was economic freedom, political freedom would be right around the corner. Free trade, China, bam. Yeah, democracy.

[Paul Krugman]

I never bought that. And I think I'm on record as having never bought that. And there was a lot of nonsense about all this. Now the real stuff is way back, going all the way back to fdr. The US has had the belief that international trade can be good for peace. That by binding countries together through lots of trading links, you make it harder for them to go to war with each other and that it can be a force for peace. The European Union was originally about harnessing economic interests to basically make it very hard for France and Germany ever to have another war. And that has kind of worked.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

You really believe that? You think KFC is the path to peace?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, not so much kfc, but the coal and steel community, making sure that German steel mills or French steel mills relied on German coal and vice versa actually did help prevent wars in Europe. None of this is guaranteed. We've just seen it. And I think a lot of people underestimated the extent to which all the old, you know, all the old evils are still possible. I mean, who, who imagined Ukraine, the Ukraine war as a, as a real possibility in the 21st century? So all the old stuff can still happen, but that doesn't mean that it's completely wrong either. I do think that we, you know, Europe is a, is a success story. Economic integration of Europe hasn't worked for everybody. Hasn't worked. But Europe used to be always on the verge of another war, and now it's really hard to think of that in Europe. So it, you know, you, you humility. I think I said that before in this conversation, you have some humility. The, the idea that trade can be something that helps with peace is valid. The idea that free trade brings democracy sort of like mechanically and automatically. No, of course not.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Right. So are you kind of saying that, hey, authoritarianism and capitalism, they can run both programs in parallel?

[Paul Krugman]

Oh, no. Actually, what's really kind of what people don't get. I mean, capitalism doesn't guarantee free markets don't guarantee democracy. Authoritarianism and free markets don't mix. But it's the other way around. It's not that free markets destroy authoritarianism. It's that authoritarianism ends up destroying free markets. Any system where there's really no kind of rule of law, any democratic process, always ends up being crony capitalism.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

But isn't China incredibly successful over the past half century to century?

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, and China. But it is worth saying that China is. There's still like a third of our productivity, so it's doubtful whether they can get so far along. But it's also true that it partially depends on the sophistication and what you see. And you can see that happening in America right now. You know, corporate types who backed Trump because they think he's going to Be cut their taxes, and it's good they're going to find out that they don't own him, he owns them. They're already starting to find that out. You eventually end up oligarchs who back an autocrat and then decide, hey, I'm an oligarch. I am going to throw my own weight around, end up falling out of windows.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Well, you don't think that these oligarchs aren't going to stand up for democracy? I mean, listen, Kamala Harris just went on msnbc and she had some pretty powerful words for Rachel Maddow.

[Kamala Harris]

But I've worked closely with the private sector over many years, and I always believed that if push came to shove, those titans of industry would be guardrails for our democracy, for the importance of sustaining democratic institutions. And one by one by one, they have been silent. They have been. You know.

[Paul Krugman]

Yes.

[Kamala Harris]

I use the word feckless.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Wow, she dropped the F word.

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Did you think those titans of industry were going to stand up and be the guardrails?

[Paul Krugman]

I guess I've read more history than she has. No, I didn't think.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Shots fired, Krugman.

[Paul Krugman]

No. Well, sorry, but we know what happened with Putin and the oligarchs. We know what happened in Hungary. And the one thing you know is that the wealthy elite never stands up. They're the last people you can count on.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Do you want to do the lightning round? We always end with a lightning round.

[Paul Krugman]

Okay. I don't know what that is, but that's fine.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

All right. Do tax cuts pay for themselves?

[Paul Krugman]

No.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

If rich people give money to poor people, does it make society as a whole more rich or more poor, mostly richer? Why do Republicans only care about deficits and debt when they're not in power?

[Paul Krugman]

They don't care about deficits and debt. They care about trying to prevent Democrats from spending money on helping people.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

What's more important for economists? Being respected by other economists or being right?

[Paul Krugman]

Oh, some of both, I'm afraid. You know, we're human beings.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Nassim Taleb says you are a BS vendor that will not deadlift. Will you deadlift against him?

[Paul Krugman]

Doesn't seem to me to be a really good way to settle intellectual arguments.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

I mean, what's really great about deadlifting is you can do one rep. Max, you're going to take four to five minutes off before you get to the next set, have it out, then get back to it. What is the best measure of whether an economy is working, justice or efficiency?

[Paul Krugman]

Oh, I would say neither. I mean, economies don't have to be. Certainly efficiency is not enough. You can have an efficient economy where all the money goes to one person, but justice. You can have a very just but also very poor economy. The measure of economy is, does it give people good lives?

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Why is it that when businesses get free stuff from the government, it's called an incentive, but when poor people get free stuff from the government, it's called a handout?

[Paul Krugman]

Yeah, well, who pays? Who makes political contributions? Who's on the other end of the revolving door for people in politics? Maximum cynicism is totally appropriate here.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Does economics deserve to have a Nobel Prize, or is it basically a Kid's Choice award for intellectuals?

[Paul Krugman]

I have mixed feelings about the Nobel in economics. I mean, most of the Nobel Prizes, you know, leaving out present company, have been for actually valuable contributions. Some of them have been a little bit funny. But, you know, when I look at Claudia golden getting a Nobel for really telling us the story about women's work, that certainly deserves some kind of prize. So, you know, why not?

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Can I make a pitch? So I have two Peabodys. I definitely don't deserve them. It's for excellence in radio and television. Two things that don't exist anymore. But I would happily take a Nickelodeon's Kid Choice Award. Number one, my kids would think it's so fucking cool. Number two, the possibility of getting slimed on television. And number three, you get a surfboard. Supreme Court Judge Louis Brandeis once said, quote, we may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. Do you think capitalism and democracy are compatible? Yes or no?

[Paul Krugman]

Modified limited capitalism?

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Yes or no, Paul?

[Paul Krugman]

No. Capitalism, yes, but not without limits. I mean, we had for a good long stretch combination of progressive taxation, estate taxes, strong unions. That was still capitalism, but it was also democracy. It's when you have. But no, I don't think we can have people as rich as Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and still sustain a democratic system.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

Are you optimistic about the future or not?

[Paul Krugman]

No, I'm actually quite terrified on multiple fronts. I'm terrified about the fate of democracy. I'm terrified about climate change. I just. You know, you can't just roll over and hide under the bed. But, no, I'm extremely, extremely worried, Paul.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

You got to start deadlifting and you got to start getting after it, big dog, because the fight continues, and we need that dog in you.

[Paul Krugman]

Oh, I run. Does that do it?

[Paul F. Tompkins]

No, I need progressive weight training. Okay, Paul Krugman, thank you so much.

[Paul Krugman]

Thank you.

[Paul F. Tompkins]

If you haven't subscribed to Lemonada Premium yet, now's the perfect time, because guess what? You can listen completely ad free. Plus you'll unlock exclusive bonus content like Halle Berry on how to be a good partner during menopause or Mehdi Hassan on the dumbing down of media clips you won't hear anywhere else. Just tap that subscribe button on Apple Podcasts or head to lemonadapremium.com to subscribe on any other app that's lemonadapremium.com don't miss out.