I’m inclined to think that at some stage and in some way we will be helping the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It’s been revealed by American media that Trump has told US embassies around the world to pressure governments to help. Australia is considering assistance and so are we.

It’s early days at the moment. It appears both we and Australia are simply asking for more information at this point, probably along the lines of what help is actually required and under what circumstances. Those circumstances are important because I would imagine New Zealand would not want to agree to help if there were a hot war underway — meaning shots being fired. I’d expect we would only be willing to help if there were an active and sustained ceasefire in place.

That said, I think that in the end we will still say yes because we’ve already indicated this is what we plan to do. We’ve already signed a joint statement with countries including the UK, France, Germany and Japan, saying we are ready to provide appropriate help to reopen the strait.

Now, I don’t think this is going to be popular when the time comes. I don’t think it will be popular in this country. There are now multiple polls and surveys showing consistently that Kiwis want nothing to do with a war started by the US. However, I think we can — and should — separate the war from the oil. Helping in the war is one thing but helping to reopen and keep the strait open is also helping ourselves because we need that oil to flow. We need diesel to keep food on our supermarket shelves.

Of course, we do have another option: we could simply leave it to other countries to do the hard work for us. But that would be a bad call because if there’s one thing we know about Donald Trump, it’s that he is transactional — and if we don’t help, he will remember.

So I would say that now the request has come in, it’s only a matter of time. And if the strait stays closed, I’d almost guarantee New Zealand will be heading there.

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