Now we’ve got to talk about Winston.

If you hadn’t noticed yet - or maybe you didn’t believe it - take a look at Winston Peters’ State of the Nation speech yesterday and you’ll see the proof that this election is shaping up to be New Zealand First’s election.

More than a thousand people turned up in Tauranga to hear him speak. They even had to use two overflow rooms.

Compare that with the same speech last election, which was held in a church with a capacity of just 100.

More importantly, New Zealand First used the event to announce they’ve recruited Alfred Ngaro, the former National Party MP. Now, it was a bit of a running joke in the crowd that they didn’t know who Alfred was - but commentators do.

And I think most of us can see this for what it is: the recruitment of an incredibly well-liked former National MP with a strong Christian faith. That won’t offend Winston’s older voters - in fact, it’s likely to appeal to many of them.

More significantly, it’s a signal of what’s happening and what could accelerate as we get closer to the election: New Zealand First stealing National’s territory. In this case, it’s an MP. As the election nears, it could be votes.

I count among my friends two people who used to be part of National’s parliamentary team. Both are now likely to vote for New Zealand First at this election because they’re conservatives - and Winston is positioning New Zealand First as the home of conservatism.

This cost-of-living crisis - now also a fuel crisis - is going to play straight into his hands. He’ll go hard on smashing the power companies to bring down prices, something National has failed to do. He’ll argue for New Zealand retaining ownership of state assets, a position that resonates more now than ever

Just think about the Marsden Point oil refinery and you’ll see what I mean.

He’ll choose mining over climate concerns, which will appeal to working-class voters. Everything is lining up for him to significantly lift his vote.

Keep an eye on the polling. He’s already sitting at more than 10 percent. If things continue the way they’re going - with the fuel crisis squeezing the economy and Chris Luxon unable to fire the National Party up - that 10 percent could, in my view, become 15 percent by election time.

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Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: What will this election do for New Zealand First?