Here's the Scoop – October 28, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Yasmin Vossoughian dives into two of the day's biggest stories: the political landscape one week before Election Day—including the ongoing government shutdown and key gubernatorial races—and the historic landfall of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica. The episode features insightful conversations with NBC's chief data analyst Steve Kornacki on election dynamics and Erin McGarry, executive editor of the NBC News Climate Unit, on the unprecedented hurricane. The episode concludes with a roundup of major headlines, emphasizing the stories shaping the nation and the world.

Election Countdown: Key Races and the Trump Factor

Guest: Steve Kornacki, NBC Chief Data Analyst
Segment Starts: [01:03]

Government Shutdown and Election Context

• The federal government shutdown has entered its 28th day, with over 40 million Americans at risk of losing SNAP benefits if no deal is reached by the weekend.
• The shutdown, alongside its economic and social ramifications, is front-of-mind for voters as Election Day approaches.
• Yasmin frames the conversation as a look ahead at the key races and broader political implications as voters prepare to head to the polls in seven days.

Trump's Influence Without Being on the Ballot

• Kornacki explains that "the big question this year is how voters are feeling about Trump—even though he’s not actually on the ballot." [02:01]
• He notes the continued impact of Trump's newly formed Republican coalition, which is more diverse, especially among Latino, Black, and Asian American voters.
  • “He [Trump] did it with this very unique new, different Republican coalition. We've never seen it before. Much less white, more diverse than we'd ever seen in a Republican coalition.” — Steve Kornacki [02:16]

Voter Demographics and Turnout Issues

• The 2024 presidential election saw Republicans make significant inroads with Hispanic and Asian American voters in New Jersey.
• Kornacki points to six majority-Hispanic cities in New Jersey where Trump massively outperformed prior GOP benchmarks.
• Democrats' historic weakness has been low turnout rather than a lack of support percentage-wise.

New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Sherrill vs. Cittarelli

Key Insights:

• Mikie Sherrill (D) has not surged as strongly as initially expected, with Republicans leveraging missteps in her campaign (notably, her fumbling of a “first thing you’d do as governor” question repurposed in GOP ads) [04:29-06:07].
• Both sides had increased confidence earlier; however, recent polls show Sherrill’s stubborn lead in the mid- to high-single digits.
• The Democrats’ current confidence is attributed to an anti-Trump sentiment:
  • “There’s just voters in New Jersey who don’t like Donald Trump who are gonna take this election and … vote against Trump’s party.” — Steve Kornacki [06:27]

Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Sears vs. the Blue Tide

Key Factors:

• The shutdown's effects are acute in Virginia, which has a dense concentration of federal workers who lean Democratic.
• Virginia’s pattern: usually elects a governor from the party opposite the president.
• Republican candidate Winsome Sears carries more personal and political baggage, making her an easier Democratic target than her predecessor.

Notable Quote:

• “One of the obstacles ... Republicans have ... is you look at Northern Virginia ... These are places filled with federal workers. ... When you're talking about the federal workforce living in Virginia, you're not talking about swing voters, you're talking about Democrats in a lot of cases.” — Steve Kornacki [08:01]

Presidential Endorsement:

• Trump has yet to endorse Sears, likely due to her trailing in most polls:
  • Yasmin: “He doesn't wanna endorse someone who may lose.”
  • Steve: “There you go.” [09:34-09:37]

New York City Mayoral Race: Mamdani’s Lead, Cuomo’s Comeback

• Zohar Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, remains the frontrunner, but polling suggests volatility.
• Mamdani is favored due to party registration advantage and divided opposition, but “he’s not gaining any new support.”
  • “If there’s further consolidation here, I think there’s vulnerability for Mamdani as long as he’s still sitting in that mid 40% range.” — Steve Kornacki [11:28]

Kornacki on Election Prep

• Steve jokes about his election routine:
  • “I stare at spreadsheets, I’m looking at maps ... every election that I do, I go into it with less and less confidence because ... you’ll never understand all of it.” — Steve Kornacki [11:37]

Hurricane Melissa: Historic Storm and Human Fallout

Guest: Erin McGarry, NBC News Climate Unit Executive Editor
Segment Starts: [13:29]

Landfall and Immediate Impact

• Hurricane Melissa makes landfall as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 mph.
• Tied as the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded; now heading for Cuba.
• Widespread infrastructure damage expected, with communications likely to be severely disrupted.

Meteorological Uniqueness and Danger

Notable Moments:

• The storm remained at Category 5 for several days due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and slow movement.
  • “It’s been sitting at a five for a couple days, which is kind of unheard of.” — Erin McGarry [15:18]
• Hurricane hunters from NOAA and the Air Force were forced to abort missions due to turbulence and aircraft damage:
  • “We started seeing circles around the eye...they left because they were sustaining damage...it was too dangerous.” — Erin McGarry [16:04]
  • “That has never happened because these planes are built to withstand high winds. To go into a hurricane, that's their job.” — Yasmin Vossoughian [16:52]

Climate Change and Rapid Intensification

• The storm’s transformation from tropical storm to Category 5 was extremely rapid ("70 mph increase in 24 hours"):
  • “It exploded.” — Yasmin Vossoughian [17:51]
  • “That warm water made up to 700 times more likely because of human caused climate change.” — Erin McGarry [18:41]

Mechanism: Why Warm Water Supercharges Hurricanes

• Warm water feeds storm intensity by increasing evaporation, fueling atmospheric precipitation and thunderstorms.
• “If it was a little drier, a little cooler, you wouldn’t quite have that spark.” — Erin McGarry [19:33]

Humanitarian Disaster Looms

• Devastation projected not just from wind, but especially from extreme rainfall, with some mountain regions expecting 30-40 inches.
• Anticipates a “humanitarian disaster,” with limited communication in the aftermath.

Notable Quote:

• “It makes me almost teary, 30 to 40 inches, because that’s just, you know, it’s catastrophe. A humanitarian disaster.” — Erin McGarry [20:09]

Major Headlines: What Else You Need to Know

Segment Starts: [20:30]

• President Trump’s Asia Tour: In Japan, heads to South Korea; crucial meeting upcoming with Xi Jinping focused on tariff and trade tensions.
• Gaza Violence Resumes: Netanyahu orders new strikes in Gaza; allegations fly between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire violation.
• US Anti-Drug Strikes: Defense Secretary Hegseth announces lethal operations against suspected narco-traffickers; administration under fire for lack of transparency.
• Amazon Layoffs: 14,000 jobs cut, AI blamed/directly cited as the major factor; signal of shifting tech workplace trends.
• Health Update: New study: for older women, 4,000 steps once or twice a week can cut heart disease risk by 40%; consistency beats intensity in fitness.
• Baseball Marathon: Dodgers win World Series Game 3 against Blue Jays in 18 innings, lasting nearly 6 hours, with a walk-off by Freddie Freeman.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On political forecasting:
  • “Every election that I do, I go into it with less and less confidence.” — Steve Kornacki [11:37]
• On climate change and Hurricane Melissa:
  • “Up to 700 times more likely that warm water, which then led to that rapid intensification because of human caused climate change.” — Erin McGarry [18:41]
• On unfolding disaster:
  • “It’s catastrophe. A humanitarian disaster.” — Erin McGarry [20:19]

Key Takeaways

• The election's stakes are sharpened by an ongoing government shutdown and unprecedented political realignment, with demographic shifts re-shaping the old rules of engagement.
• Major gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey will test the reach of both the Trump coalition and anti-Trump backlash.
• Hurricane Melissa represents a new level of climate-driven disaster: its intensity, longevity, and rapid formation deeply connected to record ocean warmth. The dangers, both immediate and cascading, are severe.
• Across the headlines, the world feels the ripple effects of shifting power balances, both in politics and climate, as well as technological disruption and ongoing global conflict.

For those who missed the episode, "Here's the Scoop" on October 28, 2025, delivers sharp political analysis, vital climate context, and curated world headlines—blending urgency with nuance and giving you the essential brief on what’s next.