Yasmin Vesugian (2:23)

You and I have talked about this previously, especially in anticipation of this happening as to what kind of both sides were looking for and what they wanted. Republicans are framing this as a quote unquote Schumer shutdown, referring to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They are saying that the Democrats are keeping the government shut down because they want to provide health care for undocumented immigrants. Which you have said and we've talked about is not, in fact, true. What exactly do the Democrats want?

Ryan Nobles (2:55)

Democrats want to do something on healthcare, right? I think that they've been very careful not to be definitive as to what that something is, which I think provides them a degree of wiggle room so that they can claim victory if they get anything. It's important to keep in mind the last two shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. 2013 was about ending Obamacare. That certainly did not happen. 2018 was about getting money for Trump's border wall. That didn't happen. Rarely do the folks that are kind of standing firm on the shutdown get the policy win that they're looking for. That just usually doesn't happen. So Democrats this time around didn't make it as black and white as Republicans did in those two different examples, but they have kind of focused their message around healthcare. The best example would be the extension of these subsidies for the Affordable Care act, because there are a lot of Republican constituents who benefit from these enhanced subsidies that were part of the COVID era rescue plans. They were added to Obamacare. As a result, they're set to expire at the end of this year. And I thought what was interesting was that Democrats had a new messaging tactic with this yesterday because a lot of the criticism that they were getting from Republicans was, we don't want to close this conversation. We just want to open, keep the government open for another seven weeks so that we can negotiate these issues that you're talking about. And the Affordable Care act subsidies would fall underneath that. But the Democrats are pointing out, if you are making a healthcare decision for 2026, you are making that healthcare decision now. So if, if you did the seven week extension, which is the one that's currently on the table, they could vote that in today and reopen the government. If you did the seven week extension, that would end right before Thanksgiving. And if anybody that's had to make the healthcare decisions in a home knows open enrollment is a period of time that usually begins sometime in mid November and goes through mid December. And my wife and I had this conversation this time every fall, right? Like, okay, which one of the healthcare options are we gonna take this year? Do one of the kids need braces? Which kid can't see the blackboard anymore? Are they gonna need glasses? And so that's why Democrats have framed this message with a degree of urgency that we need to do this piece of it today. Republicans don't buy that. They think that Democrats are, they're Chicken Little and the sky is falling. It's not going to be that bad. Speaker Johnson just today said that they could make this decision before the end of the year and everybody would be fine.

Yasmin Vesugian (5:24)

In good faith. Do you feel like Republicans actually do want to negotiate on these subsidies? Because, I mean, listen, all that we have heard from the President on down is they don't believe Obamacare is a good thing for Americans. So do you feel like in good faith they want to negotiate on these subsidies? Even in that seven week period?

Ryan Nobles (5:41)

I think the majority of Congressional Republicans would be opposed to extending these subsidies. I think almost all Congressional Republicans would be opposed to making them permanent. But I think there's some middle ground there where when you've got to make a choice about getting other things that you want and getting the government back open, and you do have the calculation of the political cost that could come along with people losing their health insurance or their health insurance premium skyrocketing. I think it's something that Republicans are willing to have a conversation about. But I think the question is over how quickly Republicans would be willing to make a deal like this and what is the form and fashion in which that deal comes together. And I think that's part of the reason we're still staring at each other.

Yasmin Vesugian (6:24)

When you and I last spoke, we also talked about this threat coming from the President on down, also from the office of OMB saying we're gonna start firing folks if you shut the government down. The Democrats obviously amidst know this government shutdown, calling the bluff. Is that what we think this is or is there a potential of these firings coming? What have we heard?

Ryan Nobles (6:45)

So OMB has been very vague as to what this is going to be like. The President, almost every time he's been asked about it has doubled down on that. What I think is interesting about the Democratic posture on this is I talked to Virginia Senator Mark Warner today. Virginia has, you know, per capita some of the most federal workers of any state in the country, given their proximity to Washington D.C. and what Warner told me was he has never seen federal workers more resolute in their request of him as their senator to stand firm. The federal workers I've heard from would have been pretty damn upset if we simply said this is normal and gone. His opinion based on their feedback is that they feel like these jobs are in danger anyway and that at some point, you've got to stand up to Donald Trump. And if you don't stand up to him now, you end up caving on this, and then you still lose your job. Now, he did caveat that by saying, I don't know if they're gonna feel this way in three weeks, but this is how they feel today.

Yasmin Vesugian (7:45)

How much of this is about getting what Democrats say they wanna get when it comes to healthcare, and how much is it about showing the American public they still have a fight in them?

Ryan Nobles (7:53)

Yeah, well, listen, these shutdowns are always about politics, right? And I don't think there's any doubt that Democrats see Donald Trump as vulnerable right now. His approval rating is as low as it's ever been in either of his presidencies, depending metric you're looking at. And in particular, his approval rating is way down when it comes to the economy. And that's traditionally been one of his strongest issues, the economy and immigration. So I think Democrats feel that they've got the country's attention when it comes to the economy leading into the 26 midterms, and they want to demonstrate their willingness to stand up to Trump for the direction they think he's taking the country in. And the other thing I'll say about it is for Chuck Schumer specifically, he took a beating from the Democratic base in the spring when they gave in and allowed the Republican spending plan to go through. You probably don't remember this, Yasmin, but in the spring, we were standing outside of a room where the Democrats were screaming at each other so loud over what? How they should handle the shutdown threat in the spring.

Yasmin Vesugian (8:59)

Wow.

Ryan Nobles (8:59)

That you could hear them through the door of the room because they were so passionate about their direction. I think the difference between then and now is that they've seen Donald Trump in office during this period of time. And I think they're less impressed by his ability to execute some of these threats. The calling of the federal workforce is the best example of that, because he has been trying to fire all these people, and he has fired. There's thousands of federal workers that have lost their jobs, but they've also gotten all these court battles, and they've had to beg some workers to come back. I think they just don't believe that he has the ability to follow through on these threats in the way that he has done so far.

Yasmin Vesugian (9:38)

Ryan Nobles, eat your Wheaties. Stack those power bars up in that tiny room of yours that you're coming to us from the Capitol.

Ryan Nobles (9:46)

I'm not yes. I'm not working out. I'm eating terribly. I'll be trying to make up for these poor decisions for the next two years.

Yasmin Vesugian (9:53)

We'll be rolling you out of the Capitol when this whole thing is.

Ryan Nobles (9:55)

We're getting to that point, I think. Yeah.

Yasmin Vesugian (9:59)

All right. We are going to take a very quick break. When we're back, how the shutdown is going to actually impact you. But before we do break, a quick request as one of our listeners, your feedback really, really matters. We'd like to hear what you like, what you do not like and then everything else in between. So just head to nbcnews.com survey and share your thoughts. Again, that is nbcnews.com survey. Your input is going to help us keep making. Here's the scoop even better. All right. We'll be right back. Foreign not sure if you have the experience to start your dream job. Good news, these days, it's the skills that count. Udemy can help you get those in demand. Skills. Want to be an AI mastermind? Learn with us. Game developer. We've got you covered. AWS certified cloud practitioner. We can help you prep. You'll learn from real world experts who love what they do so that you can love what you do. Go to udemy.com for the skills to get you started and get set for your dream job.

Ryan Nobles (11:04)

Hey, guys, Willie Geist here reminding you to check out the Sunday Sit down podcast.

Yasmin Vesugian (11:08)

On this week's episode, I get together.

Ryan Nobles (11:10)

With Tony and Grammy winner and Academy Award nominee Leslie Odom Jr. As he.

Yasmin Vesugian (11:16)

Returns to the role that made him famous as Aaron Burr in in Hamilton.

Ryan Nobles (11:21)

10 years after the original run.

Yasmin Vesugian (11:24)

You can get our conversation now for free wherever you download your podcasts. Who's ready for some football all season?

Ryan Nobles (11:33)

The Today show takes you inside the game.

Yasmin Vesugian (11:35)

We are going to get this party started.

Ryan Nobles (11:37)

Join us every week as we go behind the scenes with your favorite NFL teams for the biggest stories on and off the field. Big game tonight. Plus game day recipes that dial up your tailgate.

Yasmin Vesugian (11:48)

Football food soup to nuts.

Ryan Nobles (11:50)

From stadium lights to game day bites, the Today show is your home for all things football every morning on NBC.

Yasmin Vesugian (12:05)

And we are back with here's a scoop of NBC News. As we said earlier, overnight, Capitol Hill put up a big close for business sign. I'm sure when you woke up this morning you had a lot of questions about how this is going to impact your daily life. Like should I go to the airport early before my flight? What about my mom's Medicaid? Will my 401k be affected. Maybe you asked, why do I even need to care? So we decided to phone some friends around NBC News and get some of these questions answered for you. First up, want to talk dollars and cents? What does a government shutdown mean for the economy and more importantly, for my wallet? Here's NBC News senior business correspondent Christine Romans. So how does a shutdown affect Wall Street? I'm a little less worried about Wall street because Wall street stock market prices reflect corporate profits and companies are still doing fine here. You're seeing a little bit of guessing and betting in the markets right now about whether it'll be a short shutdown or a long shutdown. Where I think you'll see the real effect is on Main Street. You have an affordability crisis really in the United States right now with housing costs, insurance costs, food costs over the past five years are up dramatically and wages not up quite that much. Right. So there's pressure on the family budget. And we're talking about potentially up to 750,000 federal workers furloughed. So those people will not be paid. There just isn't enough money in the month to pay all the bills that will be coming in if you're not getting those those paychecks. So that could be a problem. But there's just not a lot of wiggle room in the family budget for these many, many thousands and thousands of people who will be told either to come to work and not get paid or not come to work at all. Up next, how this impacts federal health agencies. Here's NBC News health and medical reporter Erica Edwards. So for the most part, Medicare and Medicaid services will not be impacted. Claims will be processed and paid. But some telehealth services for seniors are could be shuttered temporarily. I'm talking about the federally funded hospital at home programs. So we're talking about people who might need a heart monitor, but they are not sick enough to be admitted. They can stay home and get care through telehealth services. If those folks now need to go into the hospital to get that care, we could start seeing once again an overcrowding, especially in hospital ERs. Now another thing I'm keeping close eye on are federally qualified health centers. These are community health centers who rely on the federal government to stay in business. More than 50 million people nationwide use these lower cost health services. Officials say those centers are safe for now. No immediate impact or pause on care. But there's a lot of behind the scenes work that will be impacted. Folks at the cdc, for example, may not be able to do disease surveillance, as it's called, really watching for flu Covid or spread of any other virus that could be going around. So what about the upcoming vacation that you may have had planned? We've got NBC News senior correspondent Tom Costello, who is the expert of all things aviation.

Ryan Nobles (15:09)

Hey there. So the FAA has already said that out of roughly 45,000 employees, 11,000 will be on furloughed. 13,000 air traffic controllers are going to have to work without. Hey, they're going to have to do that regardless of whether the government stays shut down for some time. Now, back in the last shutdown in 2018 and 2019, after about the second missed paycheck, individual controllers at some facilities started calling out sick, citing the stress from the shutdown and not having a paycheck. This was not an organized movement, but it was controllers at the Jacksonville center and the Washington center calling out sick. And when that happened, the air traffic into LaGuardia into New York airspace really slowed to a trickle. That is what is thought to have been the final straw that convinced President Trump to end the government shutdown. Now, separately, transportation security officers, right, the TSA officers at the airport are also expected to work without a paycheck. They make significantly less money than an air traffic controller, 45 to $50,000 on average. So they are less likely to have much money sitting in the bank to give them a cushion. You know, in the last shutdown, even after the first week without a paycheck, some of them started calling out sick or even quitting. So while this may not be an immediate impact at airports nationwide, you might see delays building after a paycheck or two is missed because simply they don't have the staff at the TSA checkpoints or for that matter, even in air traffic control towers.

Yasmin Vesugian (16:44)

And maybe you were planning that long awaited trip to one of the national parks. Can you still go take a listen to NBC News's White House correspondent Monica Alba? Okay, so when it comes to the national parks, basically most of the open air sites are going to remain open. So things like roads, trails, lookouts, parks, those will be accessible still to people. But anything that requires staffing and has kind of an indoor element. So think about visitor centers or something like the Washington Monument. Those are going to be closed according to the Department of Interior contingency plan. And that is because they won't have the necessary staffing since more than 60% of the national Park Service staff is going to be furloughed, which means that they won't be working anymore. And they won't be paid during however long this shutdown lasts. The National Park Service does want to still make these things accessible to people and they will be collecting trash. They say restrooms should remain open for the most part where they are able to do that. But signaling that that is something that could change depending on the duration and depending on when they get this funding issue sorted. And lastly, it seems like the government shutdown may have halted some marriage plans. How so, you may ask. NBC News legal affairs reporter Gary Grumbach is going to fill you in.

Ryan Nobles (18:03)

If you live in D.C. and you're hoping to get legally married, you're going to have to wait for the government to reopen. The issuing of marriage license and performing of Marriage Ceremonies by D.C. superior Court staff is going to stop during the lapse in funding. But while you can't get married, you can get a drink. Bars, restaurants and bookstores across the DMV are open and they're promoting shutdown specials to attract some of the hundreds of thousands of federal workers that live in the area. At Franklin Beer hall, they're offering $6 furloughed shooters and a free food buffet for federal workers. At Carmines, they're offering a Here we go again, Berry cosmo along with an essential worker, peach Bellini for $8. And one legendary Capitol Hill bookstore is offering 10% off books for as long as the shutdown lasts.

Yasmin Vesugian (18:50)

And thank you to all our correspondents today. All right, let's get to some headlines. U.S. attorney General Pam Bondi said nine people were arrested on the first day of the Trump administration's new federal initiative in Memphis. Bondi posted on X that 219 federal agents have been, quote, specially deputized and that two illegal firearms were seized. Our operation in Memphis is now underway, she wrote. And we're just getting started. Here's Mayor Paul Young. There are a number of federal agencies.

Ryan Nobles (19:23)

That are currently here and working in the city as we speak. The National Guard is not one of them yet. We know that at some point they will come.

Yasmin Vesugian (19:34)

But other federal agencies, agencies like the FBI, dea, atf, US Marshals, all of them, are now here in Memphis. The National Guard is expected in the city in the next few weeks. An altercation between ICE agents and journalists sent one to the hospital outside a New York City immigration court on Tuesday, ICE agents shoved and grabbed multiple journalists in the hallway and out of a public elevator, according to witnesses. And video taken by photographer Stephanie Keith, a visual journalist with the Turkish news agency. Anadolu ended up in an ambulance after being shoved by ICE agents and hitting his head on the floor at 26 Federal Plaza in Manhattan, according to witnesses. Homeland Security assistant secretary Tricia McLaughlin defended the agent's action, saying they were swarmed by, quote, agitators and members of the press who obstructed operations. Walmart, the nation's biggest grocer, announcing today it's eliminating synthetic dyes from all its private label foods. So market side better goods and great value products may be looking a little less neon on your shelves. Walmart's house brands are no small potatoes. Nielsen IQ says they are the largest consumer packaged goods brand in the country, found in nine out of 10 households. And the cleanup does not stop there. By January of 2027, Walmart announced plans to boot certain artificial sweeteners, fat substitutes and preservatives as well. Earlier this year, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Urged food makers to ditch artificial petroleum based food dyes from the US Food supply. In a statement, Walmart said they've been working on changing things up for years. The timing just happens to sync with industry pressure. Kraft, Heinz, PepsiCo and Kellogg's have announced similar plans to remove synthetic dyes from food products. Translation, your great value Mountain Lightning may lose some of its glow, but really, who's drinking soda for the color anyway? You may remember we told you about the fat bear contest in Alaska. Well, we have a winner. Drumroll, please. Chonk is in fact the champion. The fan favorite at Katmai national park has officially claimed this year's coveted Fat Bear Wheat Crown. Chunk is a male bear and tips the scale at around 1200 pounds with a distinctive scar and a broken jaw that never fully healed. Despite that, though, he has thrived, bulking up for winter by gorging on salmon, sometimes eating only the fattiest parts like the skin, the brains, and even the eggs. Now he heads into hibernation as the heavyweight champ of Katmai. And Jane Goodall, the trailblazing primatologist who transformed our understanding of chimpanzees and championed global conservation, has died at the age of 91. Born in London in 1934, Goodall's childhood love of animals took her to Africa, where she met anthropologist Louis Leakey in 1957. Three years later, at 26, she began her landmark study of chimpanzees in Tanzania. Immersing herself in their world, naming them and noting their personalities, she discovered their use of tools, overturning the belief that only humans possessed that skill. Through her books, the Jane Goodall Institute and the Roots and Shoots Youth Program, she inspired generations to protect animals and the planet. I want to be remembered for having helped people to understand the true nature of animals, that they do matter as individuals. A UN messenger of peace and dame of the British Empire, Goodall remained a tireless advocate for hope and action until the end of her life. All right, that is gonna do it for us at Here's a Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugin. We'll be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what you heard, then like us back. Subscribe to Here's a Scoop wherever you get your podcasts. Oh, and before you forget about our survey@nbcnews.com survey, your feedback means a lot. Hey, everyone, it's Jenna Bush Hager from TODAY with Jenna and Friends, reminding you to check out my podcast, Open Book with Jenna and this week's episode, I Sit down with special guest Hoda Kapi. We catch up on life after the TODAY show, her new app Joy 101, and her book Jump and Find Joy. You can listen to the full conversation now by searching Open Book with Jenna. Wherever you get your podcasts.