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- [00:01]
A
For the Iranians, I think they feel like the longer they wait, the more President Trump needs a deal. And that may very well be why they are just not rushing to the table at all right now.
- [00:14]
B
Hey, everybody, and welcome to here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesukian. Today on the show, the economic ripple effects of the war with Iran, from surging oil prices to volatile markets to what it means for your bottom line. Plus, TSA workers are finally starting to see back pay hit their bank accounts and a European heist to sink your teeth into. But first, we are one month into the war with Iran, and there is still no clear off ramp in sight. Two parallel playbooks are unfolding, one on the battlefield and one at the negotiating table. President Trump has said that progress is being made in talks with Iran. Tehran has denied that progress and those talks. Meanwhile, he has continued to escalate U.S. military presence in the region. The USS Tripoli has arrived carrying more than 3,500 U.S. troops. And the president is warning that if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz does not come soon, Iran's energy and water systems could be his next military target. So for more on this, I want to bring in NBC News foreign correspondent Raf Sanchez, who on the ground for us in Qatar. Hey, Raf.
- [01:23]
A
Hey, Asma.
- [01:25]
B
Let's set the table for folks and bring people up to date. Raf, on where things stand. So over the weekend, the president threatened the destruction of Iran's civilian energy and water infrastructure if a deal to end the war does not come soon, especially with the Strait of Hormuz and that potentially reopening. He also told the Financial Times that his preference would be to, quote, unquote, take the oil in Iran. Where do things stand right now?
- [01:55]
A
So the president is simultaneously threatening escalation and talking up the prospects of a negotiated ceasefire. And it is kind of hard to split the difference between the two. Right. He is telling reporters that these negotiations with Iran are going really well, that the new Iranian regime, as he refers to it, he insists that there has been regime change in Iran. I think the Iranians don't see themselves as part of a new regime. But he says that there are new, more responsible people in charge and that they want to make a deal. At the same time, the number of US Troops in the region climbs and climbs and climbs. There are some 50,000 here now, special Forces and this amphibious assault group that's just arrived from Japan. And the president is talking about the potential putting American boots on the ground, specifically on Haarg island, this island we've talked so much about in the Persian Gulf, where Iran exports 90% of its oil.
- [02:56]
B
And I want to be clear here, and I know that you just said it, but I think it's important to reiterate. I know the President is saying that they've achieved regime change in Iran. This is the exact same regime that was in charge prior to the beginning of this war. The son of the former Supreme Leader is now in charge as the new Supreme Leader. The totality of this regime is exactly the same. The names really are just, just different. Just important, I think, for us to put context to that.
- [03:20]
A
But Yasmin, the names aren't even different. Iranians are joking that they don't even have to change the signs on the door of the Supreme Leader's office.
- [03:27]
B
Right, Exactly. Supreme Leader Khamenei. Exactly. Yeah, That's a great point as well. So you couple that, what you just kind of laid out for us, right, with potential negotiations here. Right. Israel is expanding their invasion into Lebanon. You have the negotiations or supposed negotiations that are happening between the United States and Iran. Who's talking? Right. Who do the Iranians want to be speaking to? And who is the United States offering up? Are we still with Witkoff? Are we still with Kushner, or is there a new team in place? Because I know at one point the Iranians were asking to speak with Vice President J.D. vance.
- [04:05]
A
So the President has floated that Vice President Vance is involved in this as well as Steve Witkoff, his go to negotiator, and Jared Kushner, his son in law. We know that Pakistan is emerging as the kind of mediator of choice, potentially. The Pakistanis have been offering Islamabad their capital as a venue for talks, but at this point, we still don't know who's talking on the Iranian side and there are no talks scheduled. There was a lot of chatter that this could all come together quite quickly, but nothing has materialized so far. The speaker of the Iranian Parliament is one of the few surviving senior figures of the Iranian regime. He's kind of emerged as the public voice of the Iranian regime. Given that the new Supreme Leader remains in hiding, we haven't seen from him, we haven't heard from him. So the speaker of the Parliament is potentially the key negotiator on the other side. But at this point, he is kind of in the fire and brimstone stage, at least in public. And there's really no indication, despite how often the President says, that these talks are going really well. There's just no indication that they are making any real progress.
- [05:21]
B
Well, and what real incentive do the Iranians have? We know the incentive that the United States has, which is opening back up the Strait of Hormuz because, you know, markets aren't doing well here right now in the United States. Right. The global economy has been in a state of arrest because of what's been happening at the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians recognize and see what they have at their fingertips. Right. So what incentive do they actually have to end this war? Especially considering every time they've negotiated before, it's ended up in an attack.
- [05:53]
A
Yeah. And it does feel right now, despite the intense military pressure that the Iranians are under, like time is on their side. Right. They know that with every passing day, President Trump is under more and more domestic political pressure, that the markets are sagging, that oil prices are going up, that people around the world are unhappy about this. And so for the Iranians, I think they feel like the longer they wait, the more President Trump needs a deal. And that may very well be why they are just not rushing to the table at all right now.
- [06:28]
B
Then there's the Russian involvement in all this. The United States is saying that they're gonna allow Russia to deliver oil to Cuba. And amidst that, you have the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He sat down with you this weekend. He's actually been visiting Arab states to offer what his country has learned about drone warfare. What did he tell you and what is he saying specifically about Russia's play in all of this?
- [06:50]
A
He told us that Vladimir Putin is one of the big winners from this war. As you said, the US has lifted some oil sanctions on Russia. Higher oil prices in general benefit the Kremlin. That's money that they can use for their war machine. And also the missile interceptors made by the United States that Ukraine so badly needs to defend its cities against. Russian ballistic missiles and drones are now in huge demand here in the Middle east from American allies from Saudi Arabia to the UAE to Israel. And Zelenskyy told us that he is very worried that at some point, some of those missile interceptors that are supposed to be going to Ukraine under the current deal are instead going to be diverted here to the Middle East. He says that would be a big mistake if that happens.
- [07:35]
C
So I hope that they will not make such mistake. It's a big mistake, for example, even for Middle East. We now help them because we can't stand there in Ukraine, and otherwise we will not help such guys.
- [07:49]
B
What did Zelenskyy tell you about Russian involvement with the war with Iran.
- [07:53]
A
So he said that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran to help the Iranians target US forces here in the Middle East. And he gave one really specific example. He said in the days before the Iranians attacked a US air base in Saudi Arabia where they destroyed at least one advanced American aircraft and they wounded several U.S. service members. The Russians took satellite images of that airbase to not once, not twice, but three times.
- [08:25]
C
We know that if they make images once, they are preparing. If they make images the second time, it's like simulation. The third time, it means that one,
- [08:38]
A
two days they will attack.
- [08:40]
B
Raf. We've been talking about how the US is building up the military presence in the region. And what is interesting is that the Pentagon is being very forthcoming with the troop movements, right? They're saying where they are sending them. We know that some of the troops are coming from the 82nd Airborne. For example, last June, something similar happened before the 12 Day War where the US and Israel conducted strikes against Iranian nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer. We knew that the US was building up its presence in the region, but when it actually came to executing those strikes, they came from a different direction. Is there a possibility that this is what could be happening this time around?
- [09:21]
A
Definitely. It could be a kind of head fake. One possibility is the louder they talk about the military buildup in the region, the more they may feel that that will pressure the Iranians to come to the negotiating table. But as you say, they may be talking up troops coming from this direction and then actually strike with troops coming from somewhere totally different. It's notable. The whole world has been following the progress of this amphibious assault ship, the USS Tripoli, which has three and a half thousand US Marines and sailors on it. It's been sailing from Japan to the Middle east over the course of the last two weeks. Everyone has been following it, including the Iranians. And so it feels like it would be kind of a surprise if suddenly it was sent into battle. Given that everybody has known where it is and exactly what its capabilities are,
- [10:14]
B
is there a sense within the Gul that they want to see a quick end to this war or they want to see a prolonged war that achieves complete and real regime change inside of Iran.
- [10:28]
A
I think we're seeing a mixture of opinions depending on the country. I don't think anyone here in the Gulf is really convinced that there is going to be serious regime change in Iran. The number one thing they don't want is chaos. They don't want lots of refugees spilling over their borders. They don't want a power vacuum in Iran. Iran, where terrorist organizations can take over. I would say some of the Gulf states, potentially where I am in Qatar, just wants this war over as soon as possible. They want to start getting their liquefied natural gas back out through the Strait of Hormuz. They want an end to the missile and drone attacks. Other states, most importantly Saudi Arabia, seem to be saying, look, given that we are in this war now with Iran, the worst thing we could do, we would be to leave the Iranian regime angry, embittered and still capable of lashing out at its neighbors. So it seems like the Saudis are pushing both the US And Israel to keep going, keep degrading Iran's military capacity to make sure that this war, when it does end, ends with a weakened Iran.
- [11:35]
B
Raf Sanchez, thank you.
- [11:37]
A
Thank you.
- [11:39]
B
In the White House press briefing today, NBC News asked why President Trump was threatening to destroy civilian infrastructure like desalination plants, which could potentially amount to a war crime under international law. Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the president has made it clear he will move forward, quote, unabated if Iran does not make a deal, but that the US Military will operate, quote, within the confines of the law. All right. We're going to take a very quick break. And when we are back, a report from the New York Stock Exchange amid the recent market roller coaster. That is next. And while you're waiting, could I ask you to do us a solid? Subscribe to here's the scoop and leave us a review and comment. It will really help us with the algorithm. We'll see you in a minute.
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- [13:00]
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- [13:38]
B
And we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News. Investors were hoping for a quick end to the war, but then after a few negative weeks, Wall street is getting increasingly worried about the long term impacts. You have the volatility of the markets to prices at the pump and the grocery store to the balance in your retirement account. The effects are being felt across the board and some experts are warning these disruptions could have a long tail. So what are the short term and long term concerns? And is there any relief in sight? For that, I want to bring in NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung, who is downtown at the New York Stock Exchange for us. Hey, Brian.
- [14:16]
C
Hey. Yes. You miss me?
- [14:18]
B
Always, especially. But but here's the thing. You are at the stock exchange. All that money is happening behind you. Yeah.
- [14:24]
C
There's been more sellers than buyers as of late.
- [14:27]
B
So listen, you kind of alluded to it. Wall street has had a rough couple of weeks. On Friday, the Dow on The Nasdaq closed 10% down from their most recent highs, hitting correction territory. Stocks opened higher this morning after President Trump offered some hope on his true social. You're on the trading floor. Tell us about the impact of the president's statements on the market in recent weeks and how volatile things seem to be right now.
- [14:52]
C
You know, I think today's statement is actually a perfect microcosm, if you will, over how this conflict has gone and how investors have been reading it. Because you're talking about that truth social post this morning where the president said on one hand, hey, we're having these talks suggesting that they're going pretty well, but then in the same breath saying, but if it doesn't go well, I'm going to unleash this essentially annihilating force onto Iranian energy locations, including the Kharg Island. So it seems like today there's been kind of this push pull in the markets over, over what is going to be the prevailing story out of that. But again, it doesn't really change the uncertainty that's been the theme over the last four or five weeks where investors really don't know where this is going to go. And it seems like it seems like those chickens have come home to roost with as you point out that 10% down from recent highs, what they call a market correction with investors seemingly closing their positions and exiting, as is largely the story over the last few weeks.
- [15:47]
B
So let's talk oil prices as well as we're kind of watching the ups and downs right today. Stocks started up, but oil prices also jumped. Brent crude started $150 a barrel. Again, we have this statement from the president on Sunday saying he'd like to take the oil in Iran and is considering seizing, as you mentioned, Carg Island. Is that threat playing a role in this price hike that we are now seeing with with oil prices?
- [16:11]
C
Well, oil prices have been the story and the fixation of this conversation from day one. But here's the really interesting thing. I was talking with Samantha Gross. She's an analyst at the Brookings Institution that watches oil markets super closely. I was talking to her over the weekend and she was telling me she's more surprised that oil prices on the commodities market aren't higher than where they are right now. She, she seems to think that even despite the fact that crude oil prices are up, they are above $100 right now. They've risen about 30 or bucks or so since the war started. But she said she could see a reason for why that should be higher. The reason being you have serious infrastructure damages to not just energy producing facilities in Iran, but in the region as well. Think about Qatar, where the Qatari energy group has said that because of the damage to one of their liquefied natural gas facilities, it's going to take them as long as five years to get that fixed. That is a longer term issue, which seems to suggest that maybe crude oil prices could be higher if this is a supply problem we're going to be talking about over the next few years. So yeah, even though crude prices are already high, you have some saying actually they could be even higher from here.
- [17:16]
B
So I know that some analysts picking up on your point are suggesting possibly going up to almost $200 a barrel. I mean, that would be unprecedented, really high, Unprecedented, huge across the board. What would that mean when it comes to Americans every day?
- [17:33]
C
Well, let me give you context around that. First off, $200 might not mean a lot to people, but when you consider that the high that we've seen in history, the highest we've ever seen oil, was around $14748. That was 2008. That was the great financial crisis. So if it hits 200, it would be well above what was already a record. And then secondly, we're going to Be Talking about a 1970s like oil supply crunch where there could be gas lines. Forget about prices at the pump going up. It's going to be whether or not you can fill up your car at all. At the basis of what we're talking about here is again, 20% of the world's oil being trapped in the Strait of Hormuz for a few weeks. That means, all right, well, you know, there's just a little bit less supply going around the world. Prices go up, but over a period of time that's long enough, then you start to talk about, oh, there might not be enough oil to fill up your local gas station. That's not where we are right now. But if we get to $200 a barrel, that, that could be where this goes. According to the analysts that I've been talking to.
- [18:32]
B
I think there's a question of whether or not, for instance, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell could. Course. Correct. Right. What he's going to do with interest rates, considering the uncertain economic times that we're currently in. I know that he was speaking at Harvard University today and he said the Fed has to kind of wait and see how the war in Iran impact economy without jumping into course. Correct. For now. But he did avoid questions about the longer term direction of, of interest rates. Did any of what the Fed chairs say at Harvard have impacts on the market?
- [19:00]
C
Not really, because he didn't really say anything. Which I think a lot of central bankers and economists would say is probably the right thing to say. You don't want to jump the gun by promising or committing to a certain interest rate move. But here's the thing. Yes. That a week ago we were not talking about the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. But again, now that we're a month into this conflict, you have people saying it's a real possibility that the higher oil prices, higher jet fuel costs are going to make everything else more expensive. What happens when inflation goes up? The Fed has to hike interest rates, not cut them. Hike interest rates. That's why you saw the 30 year mortgage go up above 6.6% on Friday. And so all of this is a real conundrum for the Federal Reserve because they can do whatever they want on interest rates, hike them, cut them. That, that can't do anything to free up the supply of oil stuck in the street of Hormuz. So they're really stuck in between a rock and a hard place.
- [19:45]
B
And we're seeing right now gas is at $3.99 a gallon. That's the national average. Right that's the highest since 2022. What impact though is this having on other consumer goods?
- [19:56]
C
Well, right now to be seen, I think that obviously the immediate impact we saw this in the day or two following those first US Israeli strikes on Iran is an immediate price hike at your pump. But when it comes to food and vegetables and other types of goods, it's going to take potentially months for the knock on effects of that potential inflation to get reached by the consumer in the form of higher price tags at the store. I mean, think about fertilizer. That's the other thing that has been choked up in the Strait of Hormuz. You think about the spring planting season. It's around now that people who are planting corn or wheat would use the fertilizer that comes from the nitrogen that's exported from countries like Qatar. Well, I mean, those crops are still being planted and if they have to pay more for fertilizer, the corn won't come until later on in the spring, maybe in the summer, and then we don't notice it until I'm making it up at August or September. So I mean, this is again the story here, Yasmin, which is that what was initially thought to have been a short term flare up in geopolitical tensions could turn into a real serious medium to long term economic impact.
- [20:57]
B
The U.S. brian, this week marks one year since the President's so called Liberation Day where he announced his sweeping global tariff plan. Most of those tariffs were subsequently struck down by the Supreme Court. Now the President is receiving some criticism over what the war with Iran is doing to the economy as we're looking ahead to the midterms in November. Could this be the very thing that his party loses support on? The economy? The President ran on the economy. That's what arguably got him elected in the first place. Could he very well lose support because of the economy?
- [21:30]
C
Well, I mean, certainly the pollsters have a better pulse on what the average American thinks. But it seems like for right now, at least in this stage of the war, Americans don't really support the United States pursuing this right now, especially at a time where the economy was already ranking as a top issue for voters. All of the developments out of Iran are net inflationary. There is very little deflationary about this. And even the President seems to acknowledge, yeah, prices will go back down after all of this presumably is resolved. But he doesn't seem to suggest that gas prices are going to be materially lower than they were before this conflict began. So how do you explain that to people? I think that's going to be a real challenge in terms of messaging.
- [22:12]
B
Is there pushback coming from corporations, for instance, and investors on the war with Iran, especially with how it's affecting the economy and global oil prices?
- [22:23]
C
Well, we haven't seen any sort of major CEOs come out and try to go to the White House and convince President Trump to not do this. And actually, the irony of all this is that the oil companies are doing well because the price of oil has gone up. Your margins go up when prices are up. So, you know, it'd be hard to imagine an ExxonMobil or Chevron wanting to go to the White House and say this is a bad idea. But again, corporate America is going to have to reckon with higher cost. If the costs of putting diesel in the big rigs that haul stuff from one side of the country to the other gets more expensive, they're going to feel that pinch.
- [22:57]
B
Brian Chung, thank you.
- [22:59]
C
Thanks, yes.
- [23:02]
B
All right. We're going to take a very quick break. And when we are back, an NBC News exclusive interview with second lady Usha Vance. What she said about disagreeing with her husband, Vice President J.D. vance. That's next in the headlines.
- [23:19]
D
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Now available nationwide. And we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News. Let's get to some headlines. Today marks 45 days since the partial government shutdown began, making it the longest in U.S. history. House Republicans passed a short term funding bill on Friday that is no viable path in the Senate and all lawmakers are on a two week recess. However, some TSA workers are finally seeing back pay popping up in their bank accounts. President Trump signed an executive order on Friday directing the Department of Homeland Security to pay TSA workers. It is unclear where that money is coming from. Senate and House Democrats are calling for more ethics training on insider trading in prediction markets. In a letter sent to top Trump administration regulators and ethics officers, more than 40 congressional Democrats shared concerns that federal employees may have used insider information to make hundreds of thousands of dollars on bets relating to things like the capture of Nicolas Maduro, the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the length of White House press conferences. President Trump says he has, quote, no problem with a Russian oil tanker delivering relief to Cuba, which has been suffering under the Trump administration's oil embargo. The blockade was meant to force regime change in Cuba and has led to island wide blackouts and problems with public transportation and hospital functions. The Kremlin now says the tanker has arrived in the port city of Matanzas carrying 730,000 barrels of oil, which experts say could buy the island a few weeks before its fuel reserves run out. In an exclusive interview with NBC news, second lady Usha Vance says that she and her husband, Vice President J.D. vance, don't always see eye to eye on every issue. The expectation is that we are going to be open minded and have a conversation and that I'll provide meaningful input from, you know, the perspective of someone who loves him and wants him to succeed. So even if we don't agree, I think it's always very productive. You can catch the rest of that interview between the second lady and our colleague Kate Snow on YouTube on the Today Shows channel. In the NCAA tournament, number one seed Duke was knocked out Sunday night after UConn freshman Braylon Mullins hit a three pointer with less than a second left in the game. The Huskies will now face off against Illinois in the Final Four while the Arizona Wildcats take on the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. Meanwhile, the women of UConn will also advance to the Final Four after winning their 54th straight game. And UCLA will be there as well. The outcome of tonight's elite eight games will determine who they're going to be up against. And finally, from hoops to heists Police near Parma, Italy say thieves made off with three paintings worth millions of dollars. There was a Renoir, a Cezanne and a Matisse in under, by the way. Three minutes. It's just the latest in a series of art thefts across Europe, including that Ocean's Eleven style Louvre break in back in October. But in my opinion, there is an even bigger European heist we should be talking about. I'm talking of course, about Kit Kats, the chocolatey wafery crunchy goodness, 400,000 bars of them. The Swiss chocolate giant Nestle says more than 12 tons of chocolate were stolen last week after a truck bound for Poland went missing. Then In a statement, KitKat commended the criminal's exceptional taste and said that supply would not be affected. They say they decided to go public to raise awareness about just how common these kinds of thefts were becoming. All I'm saying is if you're in Europe and someone shows up at your doorstep selling a big box of KitKats, just know it may have fallen off the back of a truck. That is going to do it for us at here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugin. We will be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what you heard, subscribe wherever you get your podcast. And you can also subscribe to our daily newsletter, the Inside Scoop. It is a deeper dive on the main stories of the day that comes out every weeknight straight to your inbox. You can sign up for the Inside Scoop as part of our paid subscription@nbcnews.com we'll see you tomorrow.
- [29:11]
D
Hey everyone, it's me, Morgan Stewart and I have a new podcast called the Morgan Stewart Show. Join me each week as I talk about pop culture, fashion, my personal life and just a warning, I'm going to be giving my opinion on every everything. I'll also have some really fun guests to join in on the fun the Morgan Stewart show is out now. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts or watch full video on YouTube.