Here's the Scoop – Escalation vs. Negotiation in Iran; Wall Street Prices in the War

Date: March 30, 2026
Host: Yasmin Vossoughian, NBC News
Featured Guests: Raf Sanchez (Foreign Correspondent, NBC News, on the ground in Qatar); Brian Cheung (Business & Data Correspondent, NBC News, NYSE); Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (short interview clips)

Overview

This episode of Here’s the Scoop centers on the ongoing war with Iran, now entering its second month, and explores two intertwined storylines: the escalating military situation versus the slow-burn negotiations for peace. The podcast examines how these developments are reverberating through global markets, especially oil, impacting everyday Americans’ finances, and the international political landscape. The episode features detailed on-the-ground insight from NBC's Raf Sanchez and market analysis from Brian Cheung, supplemented by exclusive comments from President Zelenskyy regarding Russian involvement.

1. Middle East Escalation vs. Negotiation: The Military and Diplomatic Crossroads

(00:00–11:37)

Key Discussion Points

• Current State of Play

  • President Trump claims negotiations with Iran are “going really well,” but Iran denies any progress at the table.
  • Simultaneous U.S. military escalation—USS Tripoli (3,500 troops) arrives, reportedly increasing total US troops in the region to 50,000.
  • Threats from Trump: If no deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian energy and water systems could be targeted next.

• Regime Change Narrative

  • Trump asserts a “regime change” has occurred, but, as Yasmin and Raf clarify, it’s the same ruling regime—just a new Supreme Leader (the previous Supreme Leader’s son).
  • “Iranians are joking that they don’t even have to change the signs on the door of the Supreme Leader’s office.” – Raf Sanchez (03:19)

• Negotiations: Who’s at the Table?

  • U.S. negotiators rumored to include Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. Pakistan may mediate, offering Islamabad as a venue.
  • On the Iranian side, the Speaker of the Parliament has become the public face with the new Supreme Leader in hiding. No formal talks scheduled.

• Stalemate and Incentives

  • The Iranian incentive to negotiate is questionable—even under military pressure, Raf argues, “time is on their side” as Trump faces increasing domestic political pressure and sagging markets.

    “The longer they wait, the more President Trump needs a deal. That may very well be why they are just not rushing to the table at all right now.” – Raf Sanchez (05:53)

Notable Quotes & Analysis

• On Dual Strategy of Escalation and Negotiation:

  “The president is simultaneously threatening escalation and talking up the prospects of a negotiated ceasefire. It is kind of hard to split the difference between the two, right?” – Raf Sanchez (01:54)

• On new Iranian Supreme Leader:

  “Supreme Leader Khamenei. Exactly... The totality of this regime is exactly the same. The names really are just, just different.” – Yasmin (02:55–03:26)

• Why Iran Waits:

  “Despite the intense military pressure that the Iranians are under, time is on their side.” – Raf Sanchez (05:53)

2. Russian Involvement, Ukrainian Concerns, and Military Head Fakes

(06:27–11:35)

Key Discussion Points

• Russia’s Role

  • U.S. permits Russia to deliver oil to Cuba, as the U.S. has partially lifted oil sanctions.
  • Zelenskyy (from Ukraine) warns: Russia benefits from higher oil prices and is directly aiding Iran by sharing intelligence—including real-time satellite imagery before attacks on U.S. bases.

    “He told us that Vladimir Putin is one of the big winners from this war.” – Raf Sanchez (06:49) “We know that if they make images once, they are preparing. If they make images the second time, it's like simulation. The third time, it means that... one, two days they will attack.” – Pres. Zelenskyy (08:24–08:37)

• US Military Tactics

  • The Pentagon’s transparency about troop movement may be deliberate—possibly a “head fake” to distract from the true direction of attack.
  • “It feels like it would be kind of a surprise if suddenly [USS Tripoli] was sent into battle, given that everybody has known where it is.” – Raf Sanchez (09:20–10:13)

• Regional Priorities

  • Gulf States’ desires diverge: Qatar wants war over quickly; Saudi Arabia wants to ensure Iran is left weakened.

    “The number one thing they don’t want is chaos. They don’t want lots of refugees spilling over their borders. They don’t want a power vacuum in Iran...” – Raf Sanchez (10:27) “The Saudis are pushing both the U.S. and Israel to keep going, keep degrading Iran’s military capacity to make sure... Iran [is] weakened.” (11:11)

3. International Legality and US Domestic Response

(11:39)

• Concerns of War Crimes
  • White House pressed on threats to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure (e.g., desalination plants).

    “Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the president... will move forward, ‘unabated’ if Iran does not make a deal, but that the US Military will operate, ‘within the confines of the law’.” – Yasmin (11:39)

4. Market Fallout: Wall Street’s Rollercoaster and Economic Concerns

(13:38–22:57)

Key Discussion Points

• Stock Market Volatility

  • Major indices have dropped 10% from recent highs (correction territory).
  • Investors are whipsawed by contradictory presidential statements—negotiation optimism vs. threats of “annihilating force.”

    “...today there’s been this kind of push-pull in the markets... but it doesn’t really change the uncertainty... over the last four or five weeks.” – Brian Cheung (14:52)

• Oil Prices

  • Brent crude surpassed $150/barrel; some analysts speculate $200 is possible (all-time highs were ~$147 in 2008).
  • Damage to regional energy infrastructure (not just Iran, but Qatar and others) may have lasting supply impacts.

    “She could see a reason for why that should be higher... the damage to one of their liquefied natural gas facilities—it’s going to take them as long as five years to get that fixed.” – Brian Cheung recounting Samantha Gross (16:11)

• Inflation Prospects

  • A $200/barrel oil price could result in 1970s-like shortages: “Forget about prices at the pump going up. It’s going to be whether or not you can fill up your car at all.” – Brian Cheung (17:32)
  • Knock-on effects will eventually hit food and consumer goods due to spikes in fertilizer and transport costs.

• Federal Reserve and Policy Response

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at Harvard, opts for a cautious “wait and see” approach—does not signal any definite moves on interest rates.
  • Market now anticipates possible rate hikes due to inflationary war effects.

    “The Fed can do whatever they want on interest rates—hike them, cut them—that can’t do anything to free up the supply of oil stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.” – Brian Cheung (18:32)

• Impact on the President and Politics

  • The economic fallout from the war risks eroding support for President Trump and his party, especially as the midterms approach.

    “Americans don’t really support the United States pursuing this right now, especially at a time where the economy was already ranking as a top issue for voters.” – Brian Cheung (21:30)

• Corporate America’s Reaction

  • No broad outcry from corporations; oil companies are profiting but will eventually face higher operational costs (“the pinch” from rising fuel prices). (22:22)

5. Headlines & Notable Moments

(24:35–29:11)

• Partial Government Shutdown: Now at day 45, the longest in history. TSA workers receiving back pay after an executive order.
• Insider Trading Concerns: Congressional Democrats seek more ethics training for federal employees after suspicions of bets on sensitive events.
• Russian Oil to Cuba: U.S. allows Russian oil tanker through, providing Cuba with three weeks’ supply amid embargo.
• Exclusive Interview: Second Lady Usha Vance discusses her relationship with VP J.D. Vance and policy disagreements (“...even if we don’t agree, I think it’s always very productive.”).
• NCAA Tournament Update: Upsets in both men's and women’s basketball; UConn advances.
• European Heists: Reports on a multimillion-dollar art theft and the theft of 12 tons (400,000 bars) of KitKats from Nestlé—“if you’re in Europe and someone shows up at your doorstep selling a big box of KitKats, just know it may have fallen off the back of a truck.” – Yasmin (28:50)

Memorable Quotes

• On Market Uncertainty:

  “It doesn’t really change the uncertainty... over the last four or five weeks where investors really don’t know where this is going to go.” – Brian Cheung (14:52)

• On Oil Price Impact:

  “We’re going to be talking about a 1970s like oil supply crunch... whether or not you can fill up your car at all.” – Brian Cheung (17:32)

• On Iran’s Negotiation Incentive:

  “The longer they wait, the more President Trump needs a deal.” – Raf Sanchez (05:53)

• On Russian/Irani Military Collaboration:

  “Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran to help the Iranians target US forces here in the Middle East.” – Raf Sanchez (07:53)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–05:53: Updates on US-Iran conflict, regime change narrative, and negotiation dynamics
• 06:27–11:35: Russia’s involvement, Ukraine’s concerns, US military buildup, Gulf States’ goals
• 11:39: War crime concerns—threats to civilian infrastructure
• 13:38–22:57: Market impact—stock correction, oil prices, inflation, Fed policy, political fallout
• 24:35–29:11: News headlines—shutdown, trading ethics, Cuba oil, NCAA, European heists

Tone and Style

Conversational yet urgent, with a focus on factual clarity and expert insight. Yasmin navigates between hard news, data analysis, and lighter moments with a steady, approachable authority.

Conclusion

This episode delivers an incisive look at a complex, escalating US-Iran conflict, the tangled threads of negotiation and military threat, and the economic ripples extending to oil prices, inflation, and politics at home. Packed with field reporting, data-driven economic analysis, and exclusive global perspectives, it equips listeners with both the nuance and the practical realities of a fast-moving international crisis.