Yasmin Vesugian (2:56)

The state Department has now shut down embassies in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, urging Americans to evacuate from 14 countries. The President was asked today, Richard, why they didn't have an evacuation plan for Americans in the region. This is what he said.

Richard Engel (3:10)

Well, because it happened all very quickly. We thought, and I thought maybe more so than most. I could ask Marco, but I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel.

Yasmin Vesugian (3:25)

Richard, this is different from what we heard yesterday from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He said Israel was planning on a preemptive strike. What does this tell you about the origin of this war?

Richard Engel (3:38)

Just yesterday, Marco Rubio said that the war began because Israel was going to strike first and therefore the United States had to join this campaign. Otherwise the US Would be caught flat footed, could be attacked, and would be on the defensive. And therefore it was better to join with Israel, strike first, strike hard, and achieve the element of surprise and seize the initiative. That was the story yesterday. President Trump just a short while ago had a different story. He said that it was Iran that was going to attack the United States first. So the origin of story of this war has changed radically in just 24 hours. That is extraordinarily important. Go back to Iraq. In 2003, the Bush administration tried, tried to build a case. They argued that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. They had Colin Powell address the UN they tried to build a case before going into this war of regime change, which lasted, as we all know, a very long time. This time, two origin stories in two days. I've been speaking to negotiators. I just yesterday spoke to one of the negotiators directly involved in these talks, and he said that the talks were actually making progress, that they were supposed to resume. Again, I got no indication that Iran was imminently going to attack the United States. I have not seen any intelligence reports that suggest that Iran was about to launch an imminent attack. I was just in Iran. I spoke to Iranian officials. They told me they wanted to negotiate. Now, they could have been lying, but I'm not sure if they were in a position to take on the United States and Israel with a preemptive strike.

Yasmin Vesugian (5:30)

It also seemed as if the President alluded to not knowing how this war would end or not knowing what would come next politically, which is going to leave Iranians inside the country in a lurch.

Richard Engel (5:45)

The end goal that President Trump is describing today was ambiguous. By his own description, it was ambiguous. When he was asked who's going to take over, he said, well, we don't really know somebody better. And he described how this should have been done a long time ago. And he was talking very nostalgically about Venezuela, how that was such a successful campaign in that Maduro was removed and the government stayed intact, and now everybody's making lots of money. And he talked about how Iraq was such a disaster and how all the mistakes that were made there. But when pressed, who's going to take over? Could it be the shah's son? Do you have any names in mind? He said he didn't have any names in mind. He said they had some names in mind, but that they were killed along with the leaders and that maybe someone else could emerge. And he said, well, the biggest risk is that maybe someone emerges. That's even worse. But this war should have been done a long time ago, and we're having great success smashing the Iranian military.

Yasmin Vesugian (6:52)

So with all of this gray surrounding this war with Iran now I mentioned it is spilling beyond the borders of Iran into Lebanon. We now have Americans being urged late Monday to, quote, unquote, depart now from Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar. We could go on and on. The entire Middle east, really, many of these countries allies to the United States. What is their thinking? What are you hearing from your sources there? When it comes to this war with Iran?

Richard Engel (7:30)

There's deep concern. There's deep concern that the region is being plunged into chaos with no clear plan of what the next day looks like. And that doesn't mean the Arab countries love Iran or they hate Israel or love Israel. It's just a concern of. About the level of destruction and the level of ambiguity that is out there. And no stock market likes ambiguity. No country likes ambiguity. Many of these Gulf countries hosted American troops for their own protection. They thought having American bases on their soil would protect them. And now those bases have become magnets and they are now drawn into this conflict. Qatar, for example, was trying to negotiate a peace deal between President Trump and Iran. Now Qatar is directly involved. And Qatar says, well, we're not joining this fight, but we're protecting our own sovereignty. Because Qatar was attacked by Iranian jets, which they shot down, and now Qatar has attacked Iran directly. So it is a Mideast war that many countries in the Middle east say they did not want to be part of and that they do not want to participate in now. But they were attacked and they are defending themselves. And Iran's military is being decimated. That is. That is absolutely the case. And there's war in Dubai, there's war in Qatar, there's war in Kuwait, there's war here in Israel, there's war all across the region. And people leaders that I'm speaking to and I'm speaking to quite a few senior leaders who are not fans of Iran are worried about how the chaos ends.

Yasmin Vesugian (9:23)

Richard Engel, thank you.

Richard Engel (9:26)

Absolutely.

Yasmin Vesugian (9:28)

After our conversation with Richard, the State Department said they are actively helping Americans book commercial flights in Saudi Arabia, the uae, Oman and Egypt, where air travel is not available. It is arranging routes through third countries and expanding ground transportation options for those seeking to leave Israel as well. Coming up tonight, we're going to get results from the first major primaries of the 2026 election season. And NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki explains why Texas is such a bellwether this year. Speaking of which, did you know that here's the scoop is also on YouTube? We are actually going to be doing a live show tonight for the primary elections. And so while you're waiting, go over to YouTube and subscribe and leave a question for Steve or any of the folks that are going to be on our panel tonight for tonight's show. Cash now, More later from Open Door gives you cash up front for your home, plus all the profit later. That's no chaos now. No cash left behind later. Skip the showings now. Pocket extra profit later. This is so simple now. This is so awesome. Later or sell fast now and pop the champagne later. Cash now, More later. Now available nationwide. Start your offer@opendoor.com radio profits calculated after fees and costs. Eligibility and offer price may vary.

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Yasmin Vesugian (11:26)

And we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News. It is the first big primary day of midterm season, and lawmakers in both parties are facing a reckoning within their own ranks. The race that's got everybody's attention, the battle for Texas Senator John Cornancy. Republican candidates are vying to convince voters that they're the most maga, while Democrats think they can use that chaos to potentially flip the seat for the first time in three decades in the House, the GOP is hoping to gain five seats in Texas after they redrew the congressional map last year. But will it work? We're gonna be covering the primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas tonight in a live special on NBC News now and on YouTub. Be there with several of NBC News's sharpest political minds, including NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki, who is joining us now for an early preview of the night. Hey, Steve.

Steve Kornacki (12:23)

Excited to get the primary season underway?

Yasmin Vesugian (12:26)

Me too. I am as well. I've been cramming. I've been in a major cram studying sesh. Let's talk about the Texas Senate primary first. It is kind of the big one tonight. Right. The Senate race has drawn the most eyes and the most money. By the way, it is the most expensive primary in history. I think Ad Impact is tracking it. $125 million spent on ads so far. On the Republican side, you got Senator John Cornyn, four term incumbent, establishment ish. Right. You got Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. You have U.S. representative Wesley Hunt as well. Then for the Dems, you have Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. She is considered a fighter to say the least. And you have State Senator James Talarico, who is seen as more of a moderate.

Steve Kornacki (13:16)

Yeah, I mean, I think there's a few reasons. I mean, I think that the headline not to lose in this is Cornyn himself is in grave danger of being denied renomination by his party. There has not been a sitting senator who's had that happen to him in 14 years. Now, that may not happen tonight. The way Texas works with the runoff system, if nobody gets, you know, clear majority, an outright majority in the Republican primary, the top two go to a runoff. The expectation, I think, is that Cornyn and Ken Paxton, the attorney general, will be the top two. But even if that is what happens tonight, how they stack up is really going to set the stage for that runoff. I mean, if Cornyn is a distant second here, he's in really a terrible place going into the runoff. If he does surprisingly well, if he were to finish ahead of Paxton, you know, ever tonight, he might have some, you know, new momentum, show some new strength. So I think that's the, you know, that that's a major, a major story in and of itself. And then I think related to that is we know that the Democratic base is super, super into politics and elections. These days we see it every time there's any kind of election. They turn out in droves. And the dream of the Democratic base nationally forever has been to flip Texas. And so it seems like every two years you get this story of can the Democrats do it this time?

Yasmin Vesugian (14:35)

I know we've talked before. It's the white whale for the Dems.

Steve Kornacki (14:38)

Yeah. And they have nationally, certainly. I think there's perhaps more interest in Talarico. They've. They've. A lot of folks nationally have kind of keyed in on him as their hope for this year. But I think very related to their hope for flipping Texas is the outcome of that Republican primary. They hope that Paxton beats Cornyn. They think that Paxton, who went through a 10 year legal battle over securities fraud charges, who was impeached by the Republican legislature in 2023, not convicted in the state Senate, but they think he is ripe target in the general election and that they could potentially make it a game if Ken Paxton's the Republican nominee. So I think that's really juiced that, that typical Democratic interest in Texas that you always see.

Yasmin Vesugian (15:20)

And then the electability really of Jasmine Crockett and Talarico, they feel as if, if it is Ken Paxton, it seems like Democrats feel more confident with the Talarico vs. Ken Paxton vs. The Jasmine Crockett vs. Ken Paxton. If in fact that was the eventual makeup.

Steve Kornacki (15:36)

Yeah, you hear that. And I think that's the national folks. I mean, a huge part of this you talk about the money is the national money coming into this, the national media attention that's come on this race, on these candidates. I will say I don't think you really see it in the polling yet. When you look at prospective general election polling, I think there's a case that the Talarico skeptics make that policy wise, he really isn't different than Crockett. It's not like there are major issues dividing them. I mean, he may give nods to the concept of unity in Israel rhetoric, but it's not really. There's no deep ideological difference between them. And I think a lot of the Talarico skeptics would simply say he in many ways is a type of candidate who Democrats have tried in Texas now several times and have not had success with statewide.

Yasmin Vesugian (16:23)

Yeah, obviously we're gonna be watching all that. The other thing that we're gonna be watching when it comes to Texas is how this redistricting is gonna play out. We remember, right, Texas making headlines. You had state Republicans passing this new congressional map that was designed to help them pick up five more seats in. What are the things, Steve, that we need to be watching for tonight that you're going to be watching for tonight when it comes to redistricting, especially as we look towards November?

Steve Kornacki (16:50)

Yeah, where we're really looking I think tonight is in deep South Texas, kind of along the border because that's where there are two districts down there. One of them is not really going to be that. That interesting tonight, but it will be in November. It's the district that's held by Henry Cuellar. He's a conservative Democrat. He certainly, he's gotten a lot of attention nationally. Probably the most hawkish Democrat in the House when it comes to the border, when it comes to immigration. He had faced a federal indictment. Trump gave him a pardon a few months ago. Trump was upset that Cuellar decided to go forward and run again as a Democrat. But that's one of the districts that Republicans made a little bit more Republican friendly. That's one to keep an eye on in November. The other one down there tonight to keep an eye on in deep South Texas is Vicente Gonzalez. Again, this is a Democrat, a border district, you know, Brownsville, Texas here, you know, right on the U. S. Mexico border. Gonzalez had a very close call in 2024. He has positioned himself on cultural issues much more as a moderate, even a conservative relative to the national party in response to how that. How the politics of South Texas have been changing. Very competitive Republican primary, and that's a district that Republicans were also pretty aggressive in redrawing the lines in to try to help themselves actually oust Gonzalez. So we're gonna find out who Republicans that race. That'll be one of the most closely watched races in the country this fall that could be an incumbent who loses.

Yasmin Vesugian (18:19)

So we talked a lot about Texas, but North Carolina is happening tonight too. They got 14 House races, a Senate seat that's going to be up for grabs. Senator Thom Tillis retiring. What are you watching for there tonight?

Steve Kornacki (18:31)

Again, this is. This could become a theme tonight. First of all, a big theme is how many incumbents we. I mentioned Coryn, I just mentioned Gonzalez in Texas. There's another in Texas, maybe in Dan Crenshaw and I think North Carolina, the fourth district. This is Raleigh Chapel Hill. This is an overwhelmingly Democratic congressional district. But the incumbent Democratic congresswoman there, Valerie Fuchi, is also in grave danger of losing her primary tonight. She's being challenged by a county commissioner from Durham county named Anita Alam, who ran against Fushi when this seat was first up in 2022. She is endorsed by Bernie Sanders. She's running as far to the left as possible. And a major issue in this has been the role of AIPAC pro Israel money, which had supported Fushi in the past in that 2022 campaign. She's tried to distance herself from that in this campaign. I think sensing the danger, sensing the climate within her party changing on that. That's a race where I think we'll start to get some returns pretty early and I think is another incumbent who could go down.

Yasmin Vesugian (19:39)

So Steve, when you put this all together right, obviously this is all leading towards November, what could we take away from tonight's results not only as a country but also if you have the Republicans and the Democrats looking at what comes out of tonight to look forward to come November and what the expectations are over the next few months in this primary season?

Steve Kornacki (20:01)

Yeah, I mean, look, there's some of these. The one in North Carolina I just talked about is very much about the temperature with within the Democratic Party, the Democratic base. And we've started to see these. We talked, I think I was on with you a few weeks ago talking about a race in the suburbs of New Jersey in a Democratic primary where a Sanders AOC backed candidate was able to win. I mean, that is something you wouldn't have seen in a place like that not that long ago. You're starting to see it now. That wing of the party, is it ascendant? Does it put another win on the board tonight? What is the temperature in the party? Is that where it is? So it's another, it's another data point for that. And on the Republican side in Texas, again, Cornyn running without Trump's endorsement, I mentioned Dan Crenshaw, the congressman from the Houston area, Republican congressman, the only Republican incumbent congressman in Texas running without Trump's endorsement too. What does that look like in both of those races? I mentioned the Cornyn one. We know his situation. Crenshaw. Can Crenshaw win without the Trump, without Trump's backing? Does he get knocked off? Is he another incumbent? So I think that's certainly something we're looking at too. And then also obviously, just what does that Texas race look like heading into November? Does it look like a race that after this primary, Democrats still think they have a shot to win, are still going to pour a ton of money into and what will Republicans do in response to that?

Yasmin Vesugian (21:26)

The Democrats want Texas so bad it's thirsty. Let's be honest, it's thirsty. Speaking of thirsty, what are you going to be drinking tonight when you're on the Kornacki camp. I mean, what is your drink of choice as you're gonna go from who knows how long, right? 7:30 on, you're gonna be live up on the kornacki cam on YouTube. What are you drinking in that mug of yours?

Richard Engel (21:51)

Water.

Steve Kornacki (21:51)

It's just no food. Just the food slows me down. So just water and just good old fashioned water. Stay hydrated. But not so hydrated. I have to take a break, so.

Yasmin Vesugian (22:01)

Exactly. By the way, if you have questions for Steve, you can leave it in the comments of our YouTube channel. He's gonna be on with us tonight as well. For our live here's the Election special will be streaming on NBC News now. You can tune in starting around 11pm Eastern Time. Steve Kornacki, thank you and we'll see you tonight.

Steve Kornacki (22:22)

You got it? Yes.

Yasmin Vesugian (22:23)

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Yasmin Vesugian (23:58)

and we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News News. Let's get to some headlines. US Stocks plunged and energy prices surged with fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle east, rattling global markets. U.S. crude oil has jumped more than 13% this week, hitting its highest price since January of 2025. NBC News Senior business correspondent Christine Romans has more on what it means for your wallet. So gas prices are soaring here as the crisis widens in the Middle East. And that jump in gas prices from 299, according to AAA, to almost 311, that's the biggest one day jump really that we've seen since 2022 in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine. And that, remember, was a big inflation problem around the world. So closely watching what happens to oil prices and gas prices here. The Supreme Court has ruled that California cannot bar schools from notifying parents when a child identifies as transgender. Parents had argued that the state policy violated their religious beliefs and right to know what is happening with their own k. In a 6, 3 split, the conservative justices agreed, pointing to the 14th Amendment and long standing precedent that parents, not the government, have primary responsibility for their children. Critics say the decision could put vulnerable kids at risk. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem faced tough questions from members of both parties on the Senate Judiciary Committee today. Lawmakers pressed her on her management of the department, detention and enforcement policies, DHS spending and the deaths of American at the hands of immigration agents. NBC News senior Homeland Security correspondent Julia Ainslie followed the hearing. She got a lot of praise from some Republicans for securing the border. And of course, she got some criticism from Democrats over her handling of the fatal shootings of Alex Pretty and Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. But she also got some criticism from Republicans, namely Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Kennedy of Louisiana, both of whom criticized Noem for spending too much money on a contract for ads to tell immigrants to self deport. And on a luxury jet that we were first to report at NBC News. She had to handle questions over how these contracts were approved and if she and Corey Lewandowski, her senior advisor, have too much of a role in the process. A Georgia jury took rare action today holding a father criminally responsible for his teenage son's alleged deadly school shooting. Colin Gray was convicted on 27 charges, including two counts of second degree murder for the 2024 shooting at Appalachia High School. His son Colt is accused of gunning down two classmates and two teachers with an AR15 style rifle allegedly kept unsecured in their home. Prosecutors accused Gray of ignoring warning signs of potential violence, including photos his son had of the Parkland gunman on his bedroom wall. Colin Gray faces up to 30 years in prison on each murder charge. Colt, now 16, has pled not guilty to 55 felony counts and still awaits trial. Opening statements in the federal antitrust trial against Live Nation Ticketmaster took place in Manhattan today. The doj, backed by dozens of state attorneys general, described Live Nation as an illegal monopoly that has driven up prices for concert tickets, venues and promotions. Live Nation denies that it's a monopoly. If the government wins, it could force Live Nation to sell Ticketmaster entirely. The trial is expected to last six weeks, and just as that trial gets underway, pop culture is offering a quiet nod to a community at the heart of the controversy. Dictionary.com has officially cemented Taylor Swift fandom by adding Swifty to its digital lexicon. Thor joins the elite company of Beehive, fans of Beyonce and Trekkie, the Star Trek fiends. At this stage of Swift's career, it feels more like an inevitability than a surprise. By the way, what should we call here's the Scoop fans? Scoopies, Scoopers. The scoopster that's gonna do it for us. And here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Bissougin. We'll be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what heard, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Also, join us tonight for our live broadcast of here's the scoop on our YouTube page beginning at 11pm ish Eastern Standard Time. And you can also subscribe to our daily newsletter, the Inside Scoop. It is a deeper dive on the main stories of the day that comes out every weeknight straight to your inbox. You can sign up for the Inside Scoop as part of our paid subscription@NBC news.com we'll see you tomorrow.

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