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- [00:03]
A
Hey, everybody, and welcome to here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugian. Coming up on the show today, stocks are down and oil prices are up as war in the Middle east threatens an energy crisis. President Trump says the spike will be temporary, but will it up? First, though, our top story. Iran has selected a new supreme leader, Mujtab Al Khamenei, just a week after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in US Israeli strikes. The younger Khamenei has been described as, quote, the power behind the robes. So who is he and what could his selection mean for this war? For that, I want to bring in NBC News contributor, Human Masht. Hi, Human hi, Yasmin.
- [00:43]
B
How are you?
- [00:44]
A
I'm good. It's great to have you. Let's talk first about what we know about Mujtaba. I know his wife was killed early on in this war. Walk us through what more we know about him.
- [00:58]
B
Well, his wife and his mother and his father. What we know of him is that he's 56 years old. He was probably the closest advisor that Ayatollah Khamenei, the previous supreme leader who was assassinated had basically by his side throughout his career, at least after the Iran Iraq war, where Mujtaba did fight against the Iraqi invasion. He's not a very public figure. He basically shows up once a year at the big rally, rally commemorating the revolution, February 14 every year. But that's pretty much the extent of it. Mujtaba being someone who was well known inside Iran as being very close to the supreme leader and being very close to the irgc, basically setting up that connection between the supreme leader's office, what's called the bait, and the military force, which is the irgc, one of the military forces in Iran. So most Iranians, I would say vast majority of Iranians inside Iran know exactly who he is, do believe that he's as hard line, if not more hardline than his father. Before this war. Many people would think that he's a possible replacement for the supreme leader if the supreme leader were to die of natural causes. But there was a lot of opposition as well to that because the hereditary supreme leadership is not something that the revolution had ever conceived of. And in fact, the supreme leader himself was against it and had said he was against it. And of course, the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, had always been
- [02:36]
A
against heretic because it was more reminiscent of the monarchy that they overthrew With Reza Pahlavi.
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B
Correct? Correct.
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A
You know, it's interesting because you talk about Mojtabla's connection to the irgc, how he was kind of the intermediary between his father's office as a supreme leader and the revolutionary Guardian. And he also fought in the Iran Iraq war. He was known to have helped elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the hardline president, in 2005 as well. What about his potential approach to this war, considering he does come from more of a military background and is considered more conservative than his own father?
- [03:20]
B
Well, I mean, I think the issue here is also there's gotta be an element of revenge, I would have to think, and wanting to fight the United States and give it a bloody nose, as it were. You know, you kill a person's father, mother, sister, niece, you know, you're starting to get to the point where that person's not going to forgive. I think the assembly of Experts, an elected body by the people, 88 ayatollahs, probably under some pressure from the council that was fulfilling the duties of the supreme Leader in his absence in this last week, probably put some pressure on the ayatollahs that. That we really need to show a unified regime, a secure regime that can handle a succession like this in the middle of a war, especially in the middle of a war that is quite brutal and involves bombs falling every day, oil depots burning, Tehran being evacuated, partially evacuated, by as many residents who do have a place to go somewhere else in the middle of all that, to say that, yeah, we're just moving ahead. Like the Constitution says. We voted for the new supreme leader. We had a council running things until today. So that's. I think that's really the biggest message.
- [04:40]
A
And I wonder if it's also the possibility of a more militaristic approach and leadership under Muj Tabouh as the supreme leader versus under Khamenei. And not to say that Khamenei also did not lead the irgc, but considering his connections to the IRGC and his former service to them as well during the Iran Iraq war.
- [05:01]
B
Well, sure. I mean, I think at least until the war is over for sure. Well, you know, one thing a lot of Americans and I think even in the media don't realize, the supreme Leader isn't the supreme leader of Iran. He's the supreme leader of the Islamic revolution. So the revolution continues. The IRGC is, are not the Islamic Republic guardians of Iran. They're the Islamic Republic guardians of the revolution. It's very specific. That's why why there's this ideological connection between those two bodies is to protect the revolution. No, that doesn't mean it's not to also protect Iran, obviously, because Iran is a revolutionary state in their minds, in the minds of the regime, Iran is always a revolutionary state.
- [05:47]
A
So Israel has made it clear that Mojoba has a target on his back now.
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B
Yes.
- [05:53]
A
President Trump told ABC News that, quote, mojaba is not going to last long without his approval. Iran last week said they're going to stop bombing their neighbors. That was a statement that was released by President Pizishkian. So what is the plan here going forward for this war, especially when it comes to Iran's approach militarily and the potential for this supreme leader to now be the next target?
- [06:28]
B
Well, I think he is the next target. I mean, that. That's pretty clear. The Israelis have made that pretty clear. The Israelis have very good intelligence inside Iran. They have agents inside Iran. They've admitted they have agents. The Iranians have admitted that Mossad operates in Iran. I assume that he is going to be kept underground away from any potential threat and by very, very, you know, most loyal, trusted guards. Because there was the report that some of the guards, Khamenei's guards on the day he was assassinated had been compromised by. By the. By the Israelis. Now, they could have been compromised just by their cell phones, not by actually being agents of Mossad. But regardless, the plan in Iran appears to be. I mean, you said, Dr. Pazechyan, the president of. Of the three council members had apologized and said, we're not going to attack the Gulf countries. What he meant wasn't what he actually did say. And the IRGC sort of like, clarified it, that we're not going to attack civilian targets, if there were civilian targets. The Iranian foreign minister on NBC this week said that there is sometimes collateral damage. So he was saying it's not intentional if, let's say, for example, a residential building in Dubai gets hit.
- [07:45]
A
Right.
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B
But they did say they're going after U.S. interests. U.S. interests, obviously, are bases, ships, anything that is U.S. interest in the region. And that's going to continue. And it's very clear because, you know, hours after the president of Iran made that public statement saying, we're not going to attack civilians, they attacked civilians. So it's just to prove a point that we are going to do that. I think that's going to continue.
- [08:11]
A
I think it proves two points, though, that, yes, we are going to do that. But also, do they even have the capability not to, I. E. Like, do they have the most sophisticated type of, you know, military materials in order to avoid civilian casualties.
- [08:24]
B
I, I would argue that they don't. In the same way that, you know, no, no army does to 100% accuracy. We just know that. I mean, does. Did the United States intend to bomb that school? Schoolyard?
- [08:37]
A
Right.
- [08:37]
B
I doubt it. I mean, we now see the images of a Tomahawk missile, which only the United States has landing on the schoolyard. So, no, you know, yes, there was a base next door, a naval base next door, but under international law, the rules of war, you're not supposed to attack even a military target if there's a possibility of a civilian target next door being damaged or harmed.
- [09:02]
A
We do want to note, though, that the US Says it's still investigating the strike on the school and that President Trump is blaming Iran for the strike. But human, if Mujtaba is in fact assassinated by Israeli or US Forces, if he's killed, what happens then?
- [09:18]
B
I think the assembly of experts has anticipated that, given the threat, and they meet again. The 88 or majora quorum meets and they select someone else. You know, unless the regime, I should say, unless the regime completely collapses, then I think it continues and the regime is, I mean, secure at this point and is able to fight back. And also, you have to remember, this regime has been around for almost half a century. So, you know, it has a deep bench, a really deep bench.
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Human Majd, thank you.
- [09:53]
B
Thank you, Yasmin. Pleasure to be here.
- [09:56]
A
Meanwhile, the death toll on both sides continues to grow. You have seven U.S. service members, according to U.S. central Command, who have died so far in this conflict. And more than 1200 Iranians have been killed. And that is according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. All right, coming up, the war is also sparking an energy crisis. How that could impact consumers here in the US that's after a very quick break.
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- [11:30]
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and
- [11:30]
A
we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News. The Middle east conflict is throwing oil markets into turmoil. Crude surged above $100 a barrel on Sunday for the first time since 2022. Then the West Texas Intermediate, which is the benchmark for American oil prices, briefly touched $120. The ripple effect is already hitting consumers here in the US Impacting everything from gas to groceries. So for more on this, I want to bring in our senior business correspondent Christine Romans. Hi, Christine.
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F
Hi there.
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G
Okay.
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A
Right. Let's talk what's happening? I mean, where do you even start with this?
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100 surprised me. $100 a barrel surprised me because Friday when I was calling my sources and saying what is next week going to hold for us? I was getting from, well, we're going to stay right here at 90. And so gas prices will keep going up, but maybe they'll stop at 390 a gallon. One person said if you get mid-90s in terms of oil prices, you will see $4 a gallon for gas and boom last night, 100 just like that.
- [12:42]
E
So you talk about what's happened since Friday, Right. You have essentially this blockade at the Strait of Hormuz.
- [12:49]
A
It's not official, but 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. They have to get through there to get to where they're going. Then you have these oil refineries inside Iran that were bombed over the weekend as well. You have all of these developments in one in the last couple of days. What does that do to gas prices and other goods?
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F
So it sends oil prices higher. Jet fuel prices are up. Diesel fuel prices are up. Those affect airlines, the cost of plane tickets. Diesel affects farmers and truckers. 75% of the weight of goods in the United States travels on a truck at some point. So all of that got more expensive here. And we just have to see how it's going to factor in. I mean, look, you can look at the stock market and the reaction to the stock market and say just Sit back, don't change your 401. There's no reason to panic. But if you're a truck driver, that, this is not hypothetical. It's not, you're not going to lose money if you sell. You're, you are spending the money right now when you're filling up the tank.
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A
At the State of the Union back
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in February, just before the US And Israel attacked Iran, the President was actually touting low gas prices along with other things that were happening inside the President's economy, Trump's economy now, which is what we're in. And he said gas in Iowa was at a $85 cents a gallon today. Gas in Des Moines, according to GasBuddy,
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A
is a little over $3 just in
- [14:17]
E
the last few weeks. He was asked this weekend again about how Americans should square this, reconcile this with the war.
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F
Prices would go up, which they will. They'll also come down. They'll come down very fast.
- [14:32]
A
So in case that was a little hard to hear, the President essentially said, and I'm paraphrasing here, that they figured they'd go up, but then they're gonna go down and it's gonna go down pretty fast.
- [14:41]
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What do you make of the President's response there? Is there a point in which there is such a bottleneck that this becomes a persistent problem?
- [14:51]
F
First of all, I hope he's right. In a perfect world, if suddenly it became clear that there were no nuclear capabilities in Iran and the entire Middle east region was safe and secure and people were pumping oil, that would be an amazing development. I don't know when that's going to happen. How quickly will gas prices come down? If there's some resolution or clarity. We've seen the studies. Gas prices go up much faster than they come down. It's just the nature of the beast. But we've gone from $67 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude WTI from 67 to above 100 in a little over a week. Wow, that's, that's really something. Last week was the biggest one week surge in oil prices ever since we've been charting this contract back in the 80s. So it's a really unusual situation here. And you're starting to hear things that the White House says, the administration says it will do, provide insurance for these shippers, maybe have the navy, if necessary, escort ships. I mean, the G7 nations are talking about whether they can maybe together release some crude oil together from their strategic, strategic reserves. The word we got out of the G7 today is they're not quite there. Yet these are all small things on the margin that can help but not alleviate a fifth of the world's oil supply that's not moving right now.
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E
You know, we don't know what's going to happen here. But if you're talking to some experts looking at what's happening here, they say this could literally be the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s. They're pointing historically back to, yeah, the revolution last time around.
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A
Right.
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E
The Iranian Revolution in 1979 and what then President Jimmy Carter had to deal with. And we know obviously Carter dealt with the repercussions of that energy crisis, losing his bid for reelection. President Trump is inside of a midterm election year.
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A
Right.
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He's not directly on the ballot, but Republicans are. And his power is right in Congress. How much does gas prices do, oil prices, does the economy overall? Right. How much does that fuel, how Americans end up voting?
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F
It is a huge psychological. The price of gas. I will say, though, when you compare it to the 70s, we use much less gas per family today than we did in the 70s. Think of all of the fuel economy standards over the years. Because of things like the energy Crisis in the 70s, we realize we have to start producing ourselves. The United States has to be more energy dependent. So it's a very different.
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Which the president has touted as wanting to be more energy driven.
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F
That didn't start on his watch, that started on the Obama administration. And this is something that's been going on for a long time.
- [17:36]
E
On top of that, I want to talk Russia for a moment because then you have America saying, okay, we are essentially lifting sanctions on Moscow so that they can then sell more oil to India to, you know, relieve some of what we're seeing in the oil industry across the board. But then what is Moscow going to do with that money that they're getting from India? They're then going to fuel the war with Ukraine. And we're now getting reporting that they're providing intelligence to the Iranians, which speaks to more of what you're talking about.
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F
It's policy across purposes. Right. You were tough on Russia with these sanctions against Russian oil, which is the money that fuels the war machine. And now you're going to allow the sanctioned oil to be sold to India so that you can alleviate some of this problem. Now, the Treasury Department made it very, very clear this is only Russian oil that's on boats right now. And this is not something that's going to last long term. It's just very short term. And it won't really materially benefit Russia. That's what the administration says.
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A
But they weren't allowing it last week. But they're allowing it this week.
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F
Exactly. Because prices have spiked higher because of the American and Israeli foray into Iran and the Middle East.
- [18:43]
A
So putting this all together, Christine, you and I were texting last week about those jobs numbers on Friday.
- [18:48]
E
That's right.
- [18:48]
A
And I said I was looking for anything positive from you in the makeup chair this morning, and I couldn't really get anything out of you. What impact could this have on overall inflation and economic growth in this country with our current outlook?
- [19:03]
F
I thought the Fed had the hardest job in finance late last year.
- [19:07]
A
Yeah.
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F
And it's even worse now because if you have oil prices surging higher and they are surging, and you have a job market that is showing signs of real weakness, which it did in February, you want to cut interest rates to help the job market. But if you cut interest rates, you risk fueling inflation. And remember, it wasn't very long ago that we had a real inflation problem in 2021, 2022, in part because of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. That was the last time we saw oil prices this high and gas prices went to $5 a gallon. I'm not forecasting that. But here we are again, you know, the highest gas prices and oil prices since that period, that painful period. The Fed has got to be very careful about cutting interest rates and having a redux of all of that by having interest rates too low.
- [19:53]
A
Christine Romans, thank you. We're going to take a very quick break and when we come back, if you've got a spring break trip on the books, here is some advice. Pack light, leave early, and bring a lot of patience. More on airport chaos coming up in the headlines. And hey, can we ask you for a favor? So every day we ask you to
- [20:15]
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subscribe to here's the scoop.
- [20:17]
A
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VGW Group Voidware Prohibited by Law CT&C NC's 21+ Sponsored by Jumbo Casino and we're back with here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Desugin. Let's get to some headlines. In one of the most high profile antitrust cases in decades, Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, has avoided a potential breakup by reaching a surprise settlement with the justice department. The DOJ, along with 40 states, had accused Live Nation of using its control over venues and ticketing to lock out rivals and maintain monopoly power. Live Nation has consistently denied wrongdoing, so on a background call, a senior justice official said that Ticketmaster will now allow third party companies like SeatGeek and StubHub to offer primary tickets through a standalone system, divest up to 13amphitheaters and reserve 50% of tickets for non exclusive venues. It is also now prohibited from retaliating against a venue that selects another primary ticket distributor. The official said the deal will drive down prices by giving both artists and consumers more choice. But not everybody's agreeing. 26 states and D.C. requested a motion for a mistrial, saying that high fees and competition remain a concern. TSA staffing shortages are leading to travel nightmares at major US Airports at the start of spring break season. Passengers waited for up to three hours in security lines on Sunday, missing flights and causing delays. TSA officers have been working without pay since the partial government shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security began nearly a month ago. The AI company Anthropic is suing the Defense Department and several other federal agencies, filing two suits that allege that the decision to cut it off from government contracts goes beyond a normal contract dispute. The suit follows months of tense negotiations between the Pentagon and Anthropic over how the military could use its AI systems. After they failed to agree, the Pentagon announced it was labeling Anthropic a national security threat and banning its products for defense. President Trump took it a step further, banning the use of Anthropic's products at all federal agencies. In its suit, Anthropic says the action represents, quote, unlawful campaign retaliation and will jeopardize hundreds of millions of dollars and overstep presidential authority. Democrats hold an edge in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new NBC News poll. NBC News national political reporter Ben Kamasar says President Trump's approval ratings on three top issues, inflation, immigration and the war in Iran, have all fallen.
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Almost two thirds of voters, 62% disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation, while 54% of voters, they disapprove of his handling on immigration. That all helps to explain why President Trump's overall Approval rating is 44%. One of the few bright spots for the President is that a majority of Americans, Republicans, approve of his handling of the border as he's made cracking down on illegal border entries a priority. Meanwhile, Democrats have a six point lead in the fight for Congress as they pulled even with Republicans on the all important issue of the economy. But it's not all good news for them. Only one in three voters view the Democratic Party as a whole positively heading into primary season. Speaking of primary season, voters in Georgia's 14th district will vote tomorrow to replace Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned at the beginning of this year. There's a massive field of hopefuls in this deep red district and candidates from both parties will appear on the same ballot. President Trump is backing a district attorney, Clay Fuller. And if no candidate wins the majority of the vote, the top two will move on to a runoff.
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And finally, if this Monday feels amazingly long, it is not just because of the spring, like weather in the south, the Midwest and the Northeast, or the spring forward from daylight savings time. It turns out that this is because of the tilt of the Earth's axis. Welcome back to Earth Science, everybody. So we've been gaining minutes of daylight every day since the winter solstice. But then in March, the increases are dramatic. Who knew about three minutes more per day on average. But it depends on where you live. So Miami, you're gonna have gained about 40 minutes of extra daylight by the end of the month. Denver, you've got 78 more minutes. And Seattle, you are looking at a whopping ready for this 103 extra minutes on the day side, you are very welcome. That is gonna do it for us at here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Bisugin. We'll be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what you heard, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And you can also subscribe to our daily newsletter, the Inside Skills. It is a deeper dive on the main stories of the day that comes out every weeknight straight to your inbox. You can sign up for the Inside Scoop as part of our paid subscription@nbcnews.com we'll see you tomorrow.
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