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Here's the Scoop
Is America Becoming Unaffordable, and Are Prediction Markets Heading for a Shutdown?
00:26:01
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- [00:03]
A
Hey, everybody, and welcome to here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugian. Coming up on the show today, lawmakers are taking aim at sports betting on prediction markets. Plus, could Pakistan be the next mediator in talks between the US and Iran? And NASA's new boss has his eye on the moon. It's all coming up. Up first, though, our top story. So we have been talking a lot about affordability. Gas prices are up in the wake of the Iran war and inflation remains a problem. Job numbers are bad. The wealth gap between the rich and the poor in this country is at a modern day high. So we want to talk to our senior policy reporter, Shannon Petty, Peace, who has been looking at this as part of a series called Unaffordable America. And she's joining me now. Hi, Shannon.
- [00:47]
B
Hi, Yasmin.
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A
So this project that you've been working on, unaffordable America, it is a year long look at rising economic inequality. Break down how you guys conducted this reporting and your kind of biggest top line takeaways.
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B
Yeah, I think one of the things, you know, I've set out to try and answer as a reporter even over the past couple of years is this dichotomy we seem to have between economic numbers that show a relatively decent economy. Unemployment's not historically high, inflation's getting a little better. Yet over and over again, we see consumer surveys, public opinion polls of people with a really negative view of the economy. So we're trying to answer that. And what has started to emerge is really a tale of two economies. You have the wealthiest households in this country who have done really well over the past year. They have seen their growth grow at double the rate of the typical American. And a lot of that being driven by gains in the stock market. And at the same time, you have everyone else who, who is facing a tighter job market, who is still trying to adjust from a housing market disrupted by the pandemic, and who now has sort of an ever increasing number of other obstacles they're having to face, whether it's tariffs or like you mentioned, now, rising gas prices. And so what we've kind of done to go about this is we looked at data and we looked at sort of real life anecdotes that we were hearing from people, and not just a couple anecdotes, but, but hundreds of them. I was struck by how many people who are making what we would consider a pretty good household income, two people working $200,000 a year combined income or people in very stable Careers, nursing, teaching, good white collar jobs who had such a almost despondent or hopeless view of their economic situation.
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A
So we're seeing in your reporting some of the key metrics that are emblematic of what is happening in this wealth gap. Right? The rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer. We're talking about costs for everyday necessities like groceries and electricity are rising. Unemployment is up. Job openings are down. 2025 was the weakest year for job growth since 2020. Housing prices are rising faster than wages. It's getting harder for everyday Americans to literally go about life. You mentioned you've been speaking to folks. What are they specifically telling you about how, how they're faring?
- [03:12]
B
I mean, I heard from a lot of people telling me they feel like they just can't afford to do some of what they view as everyday, basic stuff for themselves and their families that they did growing up. I spoke to a nurse in the El Paso area. You know, she talked about feeling like she can't even take her kid out to the movies. I talked to a teacher in New Jersey about how she wants to be able to take her daughter to vacation in Cape Cod like she did growing up as a child. And, and it's completely out of reach. She's a teacher with 20 years of experience. She said she would essentially be homeless if she wasn't able to live with a partner and have someone to split the rent with because getting by on a teacher's income in New Jersey, even with two decades of experience, isn't enough. And I talk to a lot of people struggling in this job market too. Unemployment is relatively low. It's not at some sort of red alert level. But I talked to people who are struggling to find jobs. For months I talked to a man in the country music industry who had been laid off. He's trying to do freelancing, but even just trying to get his foot back in the door in any basic way has been a struggle. I talk to people who can't get jobs at Target or Trader Joe's. They're willing to do anything. And one woman told me she always thought if she got laid off, okay, she'll just go get a job at Target. And was kind of shocked to find out that they never even got back to her. And again, these are people who told me they felt like they did everything right. Large majority of them went to college, they had experience in the job market, they were working or they had been aggressively looking for work. They had savings that they were living off of. Some of them owned A home. And they still feel like they can't get ahead. And I think one thing that struck me too, in talking to people was that in my past reporting, when I would talk to people, like during the Great Recession or during COVID people knew it was a moment, that this was particularly bad, but that it was a moment, it would pass, we would come out of it, we would recover, there'd be something on the other side. Now people don't know what there is on the other side. And I think maybe that is where maybe some of these more extreme political views creep into for people.
- [05:36]
A
You mentioned Covid, which I think is important because we have been talking about this growing wealth gap for quite some time, honestly, since when I began journalism, I have to say. So two plus decades at this point. Right. The wealth gap has been growing and growing, but it was accelerated during the pandemic. Why is that?
- [05:53]
B
So much was disrupted during the pandemic. And I will say there was a moment during the pandemic where it almost kind of closed a little tiny bit. If you remember back to that snapback from COVID that 2021, 2022, when lower wage workers saw a big gain in their pay. You saw fast food workers making 18, $20 an hour. Employers were desperate to get people back to work, tech companies on a hiring spree. So there was sort of this moment, and not just with wages, but with stuff, stimulus checks and government benefits that were a lot more generous, health care subsidies, extended unemployment that a lot of people benefited from. And so you kind of saw a little bit of a shift there. Then obviously that trend was reversed. And we of course had inflation, supply chain disruptions. We've had a housing market that has just not continued to build to keep up with demand and other systemic issues that have persisted, like around health care costs. Now we have tax law changes that disproportionately are benefiting the wealthy and cutting programs for the lowest earners and not giving as generous tax breaks to these middle income working class Americans.
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A
So there was an acceleration, it seemed. Covid. Post Covid. And then now that President Trump is in the White House, there have been some policies that have been enacted that have seemed to exacerbate this growing wealth gap. What kind of impact is that having on this wealth gap on the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer?
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B
Yeah. When I talk to economists and tax experts specifically about the changes in this tax law, which a lot of people are going to start seeing firsthand when they file their tax returns, there are certainly benefits to middle Working class income, typical households with things like a reduced tax on overtime, reduced taxes on tips, some tax benefits for Social Security, but the size of those is really dwarfed by the tax advantages that are going to the wealthy. You'll see a wealthy household making 500,000 to a million dollars, getting an extra 21,000 in their tax returns on average, while your more typical middle income household is maybe getting an extra thousand or two thousand dollars in their tax returns. And economists just say that the changes at the bottom are not really going to be enough to move the needle. And that tax policy over the decades has repeated this trend where while you do see some benefits to those lower down, the vast majority of the tax benefits are going to the wealthy.
- [08:35]
A
There is this core American belief, it's why so many immigrants have come to this country for so long, that if you work hard, you pay your dues, you get ahead, you make money, you buy a house, you support your family, you get all the things, all the things that you want to survive and to thrive. And it seems as if that idea is being shaken, that there's a bit of hopelessness amongst a lot of the people that you have interviewed. You couple that with midterm elections that are literally around the corner. The affordability crisis, right? A lot of people grasping onto this idea of affordability, or lack thereof. The president even taking hold of this idea of a lack of affordability and running with it in many of his speeches. What kind of solutions are out there for this quote, unquote, affordability crisis that you're hearing?
- [09:27]
B
Well, and yeah, I will say on the public opinion poll, end of things, certainly we've seen President Trump's approval on the economy slip. It used to be one of his strongest selling points with voters. Our most popular positions with voters, that has been slipping. We've seen in numerous polls now the Democrats don't fare much better. Voters also have a pretty negative view of their ability to handle the economy. So I think that does leave a lot of voters in a hard spot as what to do about this. The Trump administration has made some proposals that could reduce mortgage rates or mortgage payments for individuals. Trump has been pushing for lower interest rates, which eventually could theoretically trickle down to home mortgage rates being lower. They've talked about things like savings accounts for children, these Trump accounts where you can put money in and over time, it can really compound and grow. So something like that to help give the sort of future generation a little bit of retirement savings and cushion early on. But the big solution, I would say, coming from the left and Democrats at this point is that tax on the rich. And they have a number of specific proposals to go after that income all the way from, yeah, how stock options, dividends, inheritances, transfer of wealth and all of that is taxed, which then could be redistributed in their plan to middle income or regular everyday Americans either in the form of tax cut or social programs to take some of the burdens off of people when it comes to things like healthcare or student loans or their retirement.
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A
Shannon Pettipiece, thank you.
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B
Thank you.
- [11:10]
A
By the way, people may not have a lot of money to spend, but what money they do have, they are increasingly using to place bets on everything from March Madness to the death of the supreme leader of Iran. And they're doing that on prediction markets. Some lawmakers are not happy about that and they are proposing a ban on sports betting on these markets. Coming up, what are the odds that ban becomes a law? And while you're waiting for us to come back, do me a favor. Open up your favorite podcast app, search for here's the Scoop and then hit the subscribe button. That way I bet you will never miss an episode. All right, we're back in a minute.
- [11:50]
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- [12:20]
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- [12:52]
A
And we are back with here's the Scoop from NBC News. So your bracket might be busted, but we're still in the middle of March Madness. Americans are expected to wager $3.3 billion on the NCAA Men and Women's tournaments, according to the American Gaming Association. And that is just on sportsbook bets. That number does not even include prediction markets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket that have soared in popularity here in the United States over the last few years. During the week of the super bowl, they drew in, get this, over $4.5 billion in trading volume, largely because they are regulated differently under the cftc. It allows people place bets in states where sports gambling is otherwise banned. But that could change. So some states are actively working to rein in prediction markets. And a bipartisan bill was introduced on Monday in the Senate that would ban sports betting on prediction markets altogether. So why is this happening now and what effect could this have, including on professional sports? So joining me now is NBC News national reporter Susie Kim, who has been following the story for us. Hi, Susie.
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E
Hi. Thanks for having me on.
- [14:05]
A
It's great to have you. So a lot of people have heard of Kalshi, they have heard of Polymarket. But for those who don't necessarily know how these things work. Right, explain how these prediction markets actually operate and the size of the economy, the money that is being spent across the board on these prediction markets.
- [14:25]
E
Basically one main distinction between prediction markets and the things that most people would recognize as sportsbooks, FanDuel, DraftKings, those folks that advertise kind of all the time when you're watching a professional sports game. So prediction markets are different in as much as you are not placing a bet against the house in a traditional sports books, they are setting the odds. You are deciding whether or not to accept them. When you're placing a bet in a prediction market, basically there are two sides of this. You're essentially someone is offering a price, another consumer is saying, okay, I bet that this team or another will win or lose. And you are taking the other side of that bet. The way that prediction markets make money is not if you win or lose, they are taking a transaction fee. So basically every time you are buying or selling, they take a little piece of that for themselves versus a traditional sportsbook, DraftKing, FanDuel, all that sort of stuff, you are betting against the sportsbook. So if you lose, they win. However, from like the consumer perspective, when you are kind of opening up your app and deciding whether or not you're going to bet, if this team is going to win or lose, if this candidate is going to win or lose, there is not that much of a difference on the user interface level. So that's why a lot of people feel like or making this Argument that you're hearing more and more that prediction markets are essentially gambling.
- [15:44]
A
How much money is being thrown around here?
- [15:46]
E
These are companies that have tens of billions of dollars in valuation. So in their biggest weeks, as you saw with the super bowl, there are billions of dollars that are pouring through these apps that people are betting on. And you are hearing about them more and more, and not just because of sports events and big things like the super bowl, but increasingly world events, because you can bet on things that are happening in the world with the war in Iran, with the invasion of Venezuela, things of that nature that are making the news as well. So this is something that very quickly blew up into a gigantic market here
- [16:21]
A
in the US A bill was introduced on Monday in the Senate, the first bipartisan legislation targeting the rise of sports betting on these prediction markets. You talk about some of these huge numbers, right? What are the reasons why this bill is being introduced? But also because there have been controversies in the past when it comes to sports betting, especially, you know, in polymarket and Kalshi, and the potential for people to actually throw a game in favor of one way or the other because they might have money riding on it, or there are folks outside the circle that are influencing them because they have money riding on it. What is this bill actually specifically calling for now?
- [16:56]
E
So this bill, which was introduced by Senator Adam Schiff in California and John Curtis in Utah, would essentially ban sports events related prediction market betting, as well as anything resembling casino games, like online blackjack, roulette, that kind of thing, on production markets in a federally regulated entity. So right now, prediction markets, unlike sportsbooks, are being regulated on the federal level by federal officials at the Commodities Future Trading Commission. If this bill passed, it would essentially kick it to the states and that it would basically leave it to the states to oversee those kinds of contracts if they decided they wanted to legalize them. So part of the reason that we're seeing this bill now is because prediction markets have essentially been able to get around those state level bans on online sports betting that residents of California, Utah, Texas have had to abide by by simply having those very similar kinds of events offered on prediction markets. So there's a reason that you're seeing these two senators at this particular moment push forward with this legislation. This is actually also connected to a big fight that is happening on the state level where you have dozens of states now that are trying to sue the prediction market, saying that they are essentially running illegal, unregulated by them sports betting operations that states themselves, they believe should have oversight over, not the federal government. It's also significant because the Trump administration has come out very much in favor of trying to allow these prediction markets to operate the way they have and saying that this is not something that states should oversee and that states should basically get out of the way.
- [18:44]
A
How are these prediction markets responding now?
- [18:48]
E
So it's interesting to notice what we've seen in just the few days since this bill has been released. First of all, the prediction markets have attacked this bill, saying, clearly, this is just the influence of traditional casinos, the traditional gambling industry. That's mad that we are now offering something that is taking customers away from them. But alongside that, we are also seeing both polymarket and Kalshi saying that they are coming forward and being more proactive about going after insider trading on their platforms. That they are saying that, hey, in Kalshi's instance, saying, we're not going to allow political candidates to bet on their own campaigns. We're going to take steps to ensure that athletes are not betting on the games that they themselves are playing in, because we don't think that that is fair. And essentially these companies are trying to say, hey, we're being responsible. We understand that people are concerned about certain kinds of trading, certain kinds of activities on these platforms, and we're going to do something about it ourselves. And essentially that the implicit message sort of being, you don't need to regulate us in that way, that we, in fact, are being proactive and responsible and trying to do something about some of the activities that folks are concerned about right now.
- [20:01]
A
So you also, though, have these now professional sports organizations that are saying, okay, we're not going to fight them, we're going to possibly join them. They've announced partnerships with some major prediction markets, including the NHL, Major League Soccer. You have an NBA star of the Milwaukee Bucks announcing last month that he has become a shareholder in Kalshee. Just this week ahead of opening day, Major League Baseball announcing they were joining with Polymarket and the cftc. What do we know about how these leagues and players partner with these platforms, what they mean by partnership? What is the potential effect of a federal ban if Congress is able to pass this legislation?
- [20:42]
E
So it's really interesting to notice, again, the timing of these announcements initially, when these prediction markets were taking off, basically the major sports leagues, athletes and so forth, just kind of standing on the sidelines, you were not seeing immediately out of the gate. These kinds of partnerships and sponsorships we've seen so much of with the traditional sports books. But increasingly you are seeing more and more of these deals getting struck. Part of what is happening here is not just saying, oh, hey, we're going to sort of advertise with you guys or let you guys sort of use the name MLB or NHL. They're saying that part of this is a data sharing agreement, that they are going to try to basically give them access to internal data and information they have in case there might be anomalies, there might be suspicious activity. Again, this is sort of along the lines of these companies saying we're trying to be more responsible about catching things that look suspicious, activity that looks suspicious along those lines. But clearly you're also, you know, it's, it's hard not to look at that as you're seeing the sports leagues seeing where the winds are blowing. They're seeing where billions of dollars are going in terms of sports bets. They're seeing, you know, athletes, as you mentioned, Giannis, Giannis atetokounmpo, who is one of the biggest stars of the NBA, saying he's not only promoting this, he an investor. So you're sort of seeing that, listen, Sportsbook may have maxed out the amount of advertising and sponsorship, the amount of juice they're going to be able to squeeze out of that. So, hey, prediction markets might be a new venue. And it's interesting because you're actually seeing sportsbooks themselves opening up their own prediction markets. Clearly, these, this is a very competitive space and folks believe that there's advantage and money to be made by going in this direction.
- [22:32]
A
Suzy Kim, thank you.
- [22:34]
E
Thanks so much for having me on.
- [22:35]
A
By the way, among the millions of entries in the ESPN Bracket Challenge and in the contest tracked on the NCAA's official website, there are no perfect brackets left on the men's side and only one remaining for the women's NCAA tournament that so far, flawless fan has selected Texas to win it all. So if that perfect person is listening, the team here at here's the Scoop is rooting for you. All right, we're going to take a very quick break. Stay with us for the headlines.
- [23:11]
E
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- [23:41]
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- [24:10]
D
FDIC Meeting new people just got way more fun because now you don't have to do it alone. With Tinder's new Double Date feature, you and your bestie can match together. Tap the Double Date icon to see profiles built for two. When two pairs match, the group chat kicks off screen. Scope the profiles, send memes, keep the chat fun. Hype each other up, flirt a little, maybe plan a hang. It's always better when you're in it together. Try the new Tinder Double Date. Explore all the possibilities. Tinder it starts with a swipe. Download Tinder today.
- [24:42]
A
And we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News. Let's get to some headlines. Mark Wayne Mullen was sworn in as Secretary of Homeland Security this afternoon, officially succeeding Kristi Noemi. The former Oklahoma senator inherits a department partially shut down since February 14th. Democrats have been withholding funding for DHS, demanding reforms to ICE and Customs and Border Patrol after the killing of Renee Good and Alex Preddy in Minneapolis. Mullen's confirmation fell along partisan lines, passing with the support of every Republican and two Democrats. NBC News sources say that Pakistan is joining Turkey and Egypt in attempting to mediate between the US And Iran despite being in the middle of its own deadly conflic. Afghanistan. Two sources say that an in person meeting could be held in the coming days between the US And Iran in Islamabad, but nothing is confirmed. This morning, President Trump reposted a statement from the Pakistani prime minister saying that his country stands ready to be the host to, quote, facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement for the conflict. The White House has characterized the situation as, quote, unquote, fluid, declining to confirm either the proposed Islamabad summit or Pakistan's specific role in the mediation. Meanwhile, two sources telling NBC News that President Trump approved the deployment of more than 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. According to the sources, the president made the decision last night. The troops have not yet left the United States but could deploy in the coming days. The National Transportation Safety Board says that they don't know yet if the pilots in the Air Canada Express saw the fire truck before colliding on a Runway at LaGuardia Airport on Sunday night. At a press conference, the NTSB Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy said that the fire truck did not have a so called transponder on board which would have given air traffic control its exact location on the Runway.
- [26:35]
E
ASDX did not generate an alert due to the close proximity of vehicles merging and unmerging near the Runway, resulting in the inability to create a track of high confidence.
- [26:50]
A
Investigators also say that there were two controllers in the tower at the time of the accident. Both pilots were killed in the crash and were than 40 people were taken to the hospital. Most have been released, though some remain hospitalized with serious injuries. And finally, if you believe they put a man on the moon, man on the moon, well, it looks like they're going to be putting a man on the moon and giving him a house. NASA is scrapping its lunar space station and going all in on a permanent moon base, redirecting about $20 billion over the next seven years in what new NASA chief Jared Isaacman is calling a shift toward sustained operations on the lunar surface. What is behind the about phase? Well, China is eyeing a 2030 moon landing, so that may be giving the project a boost. Now, whether the contractors tasked with pulling it off can actually stick to that timeline is, as ever, another story
- [27:54]
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that
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is going to do it for us at here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugin. We will be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what you heard, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And you can also subscribe to our daily newsletter, the Inside Scoop. It is a deeper dive on the main stories of the day that comes out every weeknight straight to your inbox. You can sign up for the Inside Scoop as part of our paid subscription at NBC News. We'll see you tomorrow.
- [28:30]
D
Meeting new people just got way more fun because now you don't have to do it alone. With Tinder's new Double Date feature, you and your bestie can match together. Tap the Double Date icon to see profiles built for two. When two pairs match, the group chat kicks off. Scope the profiles, send memes, keep the chat fun, hype each other up, flirt a little, maybe plan a hang. Always better when you're in it together. Try the new Tinder double date. Explore all the possibilities. Tinder. It starts with a swipe. Download Tinder today.