Is Iran’s nuclear program ‘obliterated’?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Here's the Scoop – "Is Iran’s Nuclear Program ‘Obliterated’?"

Episode Information:

• Title: Is Iran’s Nuclear Program ‘Obliterated’?
• Release Date: June 25, 2025
• Host: Yasmin Vossoughian (NBC News)

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Introduction to the Top Story

The episode opens with Yasmin Vossoughian introducing the day’s primary focus: evaluating the efficacy of the recent U.S. military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The central question posed is whether the strike successfully dismantled Iran’s nuclear capabilities, a claim strongly supported by President Donald Trump.

Notable Quotes:

• Yasmin Vossoughian [00:25]: "Our top story today is actually a question. Just how successful was the US Strike on Iran's nuclear facilities?"
• President Trump [00:57]: "It was called obliteration. No other military on earth could have done it."

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Defense Intelligence Agency's Preliminary Assessment

Yasmin introduces Courtney Kuby, NBC’s senior national security correspondent, who provides insight into a leaked early assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). This assessment challenges President Trump’s assertion of complete destruction.

Key Points:

• Preliminary Nature: The DIA’s assessment is based on initial satellite imagery and other intelligence gathered shortly after the strike.
• Findings: While significant damage was inflicted on the Fordo facility using massive ordnance penetrators, the infrastructure damage is repairable within three to six months.
• Contrasting Statements: Iranian and Israeli sources acknowledge substantial damage, yet indicate potential for rapid recovery, conflicting with the U.S. narrative of total obliteration.

Notable Quotes:

• Courtney Kuby [01:25]: "The damage was such that it could be repaired and it could be back potentially online in as little as three to six months."
• Yasmin Vossoughian [04:02]: "Iranians are saying, quote, unquote, they were badly damaged, as we heard from a spokesperson in the Foreign Ministry."

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Challenges in Intelligence Assessment

The conversation delves into the complexities of rapid intelligence gathering and the implications of President Trump’s statements on the credibility of intelligence assessments.

Key Points:

• Speed of Assessment: The DIA utilized satellite imagery and signals intelligence to produce a swift evaluation, a process that typically takes much longer.
• Presidential Interference: President Trump’s references to potential on-the-ground intelligence assets have raised concerns about the reliability and future assessments from the intelligence community.
• Impact on Trust: Public skepticism is growing as the President appears to selectively acknowledge intelligence findings that support his narrative, undermining trust in official assessments.

Notable Quotes:

• Courtney Kuby [02:29]: "We don't know if that happened... another thing that they would definitely want to gather would be signals intelligence."
• Yasmin Vossoughian [04:28]: "How can we trust assessments at this point?"

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Prospects for Diplomacy and Future Talks

Yasmin shifts the discussion to President Trump’s announcement of upcoming talks with Iran, seeking clarification on the nature and potential impact of these negotiations.

Key Points:

• Uncertainty of Talks: Details about the talks remain sparse, with no confirmation on participants or specific agendas.
• Speculated Participants: Possible involvement of special envoy Steven Whitkoff, Secretary of State (also acting National Security Advisor) Marco Rubio.
• High-Level Dialogues: Indications suggest that while talks will be significant, they may not involve the President directly meeting Iranian officials.

Notable Quotes:

• Courtney Kuby [05:20]: "We think that this could involve conversations with his special envoy, Steven Whitkoff, perhaps his secretary of state."
• Yasmin Vossoughian [05:59]: "It seems that it would be high level, but lower down than that level."

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Expert Analysis: James Acton on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Post-break, Yasmin invites James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to provide a deeper analysis of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the implications of the U.S. strike.

Key Insights:

• Program Resilience: Acton argues that the focus on the Fordo facility distracts from more significant risks—the remaining enriched uranium and centrifuge components that Iran retains.
• Material Mobility: Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is easily transportable, with facilities capable of relocating material swiftly to evade strikes.
• Weaponization Timeline: While rebuilding the full nuclear program would take years, Iran could potentially develop nuclear weapons in a matter of months using existing HEU.

Notable Quotes:

• James Acton [07:46]: "The big question in my mind is not the fate of what we targeted... but what we didn't target."
• Yasmin Vossoughian [09:21]: "So you could put these cylinders in the back of a bed of a truck, literally could be the trunk of a car."
• James Acton [11:46]: "I absolutely believe Iran should not have nuclear weapons. And I believe we are worse off today than we were 14 days ago."

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Additional Headlines and Short Segments

While the primary focus remains on Iran’s nuclear program, the episode briefly touches upon other newsworthy topics:

• New York Mayoral Primary: State Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani triumphs as former Governor Andrew Cuomo concedes, although Cuomo hints at a potential independent run alongside Mayor Eric Adams.

• Mental Health Breakthrough: A study presented at the Psychedelic Science Conference reveals that a single dose of psilocybin, combined with therapy, can keep 67% of individuals depression-free for years, signaling promising advancements in mental health treatment.

• 2025 NBA Draft Highlights: Anticipation builds for the NBA Draft featuring Duke’s Cooper Flag, projected as the number one pick for the Dallas Mavericks, with tickets ranging from $37 to $300.

Notable Quotes:

• Yasmin Vossoughian [12:27]: "Magic mushrooms might actually be magic... experts say more research is needed, but if these results hold, the future of mental health might just be trippier than we thought."
• Yasmin Vossoughian [07:33]: "If you are someone that believes that Iran should not have a robust nuclear program, are we better off today than we were 14 days ago before this war started?"

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Conclusion and Closing Remarks

Yasmin wraps up the episode by reiterating the critical questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the effectiveness of the U.S. strike. She emphasizes the uncertainty and evolving nature of the situation, underscoring the need for continued vigilance and analysis.

Notable Quotes:

• Yasmin Vossoughian [07:46]: "There's still a lot of questions about Iran's nuclear capabilities... so we decided to call in someone you don't hear from every day, a nuclear expert."
• James Acton [11:46]: "I absolutely believe Iran should not have nuclear weapons. And I believe we are worse off today than we were 14 days ago."

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Summary: In this episode of "Here’s the Scoop," NBC News delves into the contentious aftermath of the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. While President Trump touts the operation as a definitive success, preliminary assessments from the Defense Intelligence Agency suggest that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact and capable of rapid repair. Expert analysis by James Acton highlights the enduring risks posed by Iran’s retained nuclear materials and technological expertise, suggesting that the strike may have inadvertently exacerbated the threat. The episode underscores the complexities of intelligence assessments and the precarious nature of international diplomacy in addressing nuclear proliferation.

Transcript

[Josh Mankiewicz]

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[Yasmin Vesugian]

Hey guys, it's Yasmin Vesugian with here's the scoop from NBC News. Lots going on today. We got NATO leaders meeting in the Netherlands, a surprise in New York's mayoral primary and a far out way to keep depression at bay. But our top story today is actually a question. Just how successful was the US Strike on Iran's nuclear facilities? Well, everyone has a different take on that. President Trump has repeatedly said it was a total success. He said so again today at NATO, it was called obliteration. No other military on earth could have done it.

[Courtney Kuby]

And now this incredible exercise of American strength has paved the way for peace.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

But now an early assessment leaked from the Defense Intelligence Agency might complicate things. Our senior national security correspondent Courtney Kuby is joining us now from the Pentagon. Hey, Courtney. Hey.

[Courtney Kuby]

How are you?

[Yasmin Vesugian]

I'm good. I want to talk about this intel assessment that we're getting from the Defense Intelligence Agency. What's in it? What does it say?

[Courtney Kuby]

So the first thing we have to say whenever we're talking about this assessment is it's preliminary, it's very early. It was based off the first day, maybe a little over a day after the US Took these military strikes in Iran. But the reason it's getting so much attention is because it really dispels some of the things that we've been hearing from President Trump and people close to him about the word they've been using, obliteration of Iran's nuclear sites and their nuclear program more specifically. Now this, it's based off of satellite image as well as some other intelligence means that the US has used in analyzing the three sites that the US hit and specifically focusing in on Fordo, where the US used those massive ordnance penetrators, the 30,000 pound bombs. It found that while it did do damage to the infrastructure there, the damage was such that it could be repaired and it could be back potentially online in as little as three to six months.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

How are they able to gather this, this intelligence so quickly, four days out from this strike and make this assessment? Where is it coming from?

[Courtney Kuby]

A big Part of it is satellite imagery, something like this. I mean, a normal battle damage assessment can take days or weeks. When you have Iran where the US doesn't have people on the ground, one of the most critical parts of this is going to be people actually getting eyes on these facilities. At this point, we don't know if that happened. Now, President Trump threw this huge curveball at the press conference today saying that there on the ground, who've been able to make that assessment? We don't know who they are, but that would be a huge part of it. We know that the US at least, and presumably other intelligence agencies, including the Israelis, were able to gather satellite imagery pretty quickly after the strikes occurred. So that's at least one point of reference. But another thing that they would definitely want to gather would be signals intelligence, so intercepts to hear what the Iranians are saying and get a sense of any kind of assessment that they have as well.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Well, I gotta say, Court, in talking about the wrench that the President threw in there, that can't necessarily bode well with the Iranians if they feel as if there's still folks on the ground gathering information on how bad the damage was actually done. If, in fact, that's what the President was referring to.

[Courtney Kuby]

I mean, Yaz, it's a stunning admission if in fact he was talking about the possibility of there being intelligence assets on the ground at these three sites presumably within the last 48 plus hours. And to acknowledge that was absolutely stunning.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

What do you make of the fact that the President is sticking with his guns and saying, we obliterated the sites? And by the way, the Iranians are saying, quote, unquote, they were badly damaged, as we heard from a spokesperson in the Foreign Ministry.

[Courtney Kuby]

And the Israelis saying the same, that at least Fordo was very badly damaged and set back a number of years. I mean, it does appear that the President is sort of picking and choosing which intelligence assessments he wants to listen to or he wants to put credence in. The reality is there is more information coming in probably as we speak. And so this could change. But there's no question about the fact that this first assessment out of the US Said three to six months.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

How can we trust assessments at this point? When you have this initial assessment in which the President of the United States is denying coming from his own intelligence.

[Courtney Kuby]

And now, I mean, what does that say to the intelligence professionals who are putting together the next one? It's not like they're going to do this one and then there'll be a final one. Like presumably there will be, you know, periodic updates where they'll give the latest on what they've learned and how that has changed any kind of an assessment. Well, now you have the president and the secretary of defense and others around them lashing out and the Intelligence Committee in general calling into question, is that going to impact their assessments going forward? And then how does anyone put any credence in it? I mean, it's really uncharted territory right now where we are, where you have the president of the United States very publicly lashing out against his own intelligence community.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Here we heard that the president saying that he's going to hold talks with Iran next week. Do we know what that means, what they're talking about?

[Courtney Kuby]

We don't. We don't know exactly where, when or who. We think that this could involve conversations with his special envoy, Steven Witkoff, perhaps his secretary of state, obviously dual hatted right now as the acting National Security advisor, Marco Rubio, that there may be some sort of talks, there may be some sort of an agreement that they're going to try to put together. But that announcement that he made very casually at the press conference caught a lot of people by surprise. So we're still trying to figure out exactly what that means. At this point, the officials we're talking to, they are not saying anything about the possibility of President Trump himself meeting with any kind of an Iranian official. It seems that it would be high level, but lower down than that level.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Courtney Kuby, thank you so much.

[Courtney Kuby]

Thanks.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

All right, we got to take a quick break, but coming up, we're calling in a nuclear expert. Don't go anywhere.

[Josh Mankiewicz]

I'm Josh Mankiewicz and I hope you'll join us for season four of Dateline Missing in America. In each episode of Dateline's award winning series, we will focus on one missing person's case and hear from the families, the friends and the investigators all desperate to find them. You will want to listen closely. Maybe you could help investigators solve a mystery.

[Courtney Kuby]

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[Hoda Kotb]

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[Yasmin Vesugian]

Welcome back. To. Here's the scoop. There are still a lot of questions about Iran's nuclear capabilities, so we decided to call in someone you don't hear from every day, a nuclear expert. James Acton, co director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is joining us now. Hi, James.

[James Acton]

Thank you so much for having me.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Thanks for being here. So we just heard that the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities may not have been as effective as President Trump is actually claiming. How do you see it?

[James Acton]

So the debate that's going on about their effectiveness at the moment concerns how much damage was done at a big underground plant at Fordham. And honestly, I think that debate's a little bit of a red herring, I have to say. The big question in my mind is not the fate of what we targeted. It was the fate of what we didn't target, the things that we didn't attack in the airstrikes, which would be what I worry that Iran has left highly enriched uranium centrifuge components and expertise. That combination taken together, I think, risks giving Iran the capability to rebuild its nuclear weapons program very rapidly.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

We did, though, have some reports that Iran may have moved some of that enriched uranium from some of these facilities. How quickly, how easily can you actually. Can you move uranium?

[James Acton]

So the highly enriched uranium that comes off centrifuge plants is in a form called uranium hexafluoride. This is stored in small cylinders that are roughly the same size and shape as scuba tanks.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Wow.

[James Acton]

All of the evidence suggests, including statements directly from the International Atomic Energy Agency Director General, that Iran removed this material before strikes began. And that's very easy to do. Like, it could literally been as simple, in the words of the IEA Director General, as like putting these cylinders in the back of cars and potentially dispersing them around the country.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

So you could put these cylinders in the back of a bed of a.

[James Acton]

Truck, literally could be the trunk of a car.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Wow.

[James Acton]

Like, they're literally the size of scuba tanks.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

And how many are we talking?

[James Acton]

I don't know exactly the number that there would have been. We know from the IAEA's very diligent inspections that Iran had about 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Now, this could not be used practically in nuclear weapons directly. It's not highly enriched enough. But it's technically very easy to go from 60% to the level that you most want for weapons, which is about 90%. That's a relatively quick process. And there would be enough material for several nuclear weapons.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

How quickly could they rebuild their program? If in fact, they've been set back a couple of months.

[James Acton]

So rebuilding the entire program to the scale it was would take many years. But a much smaller program would suffice to get to the bomb. Let me give you an example here. To go from 60% to 90%, they could do that job in three weeks, maybe less. That could be built in a small industrial facility in downtown Tehran. That could be done in a mountain much deeper underground than 4do was. So they don't need a massive program to get their first few nuclear weapons. And the big fear is they could hide that program or they could bury it so deep that it's beyond the reach of US bunker busters.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

So if in fact the program was not, quote, unquote, obliterated like the President is claiming it was, is that because of the way in which these sites were struck, you think, or because it can't be obliterated because of the way the Iranians have built the program?

[James Acton]

The latter. I don't think there was ever a good military option against Iran. You could destroy what you knew about. You could destroy the large fixed sites. But the problem was that unless you're going to invade and occupy the country, there is no military way of reliably depriving Iran of expertise, centrifuge components and highly enriched uranium.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

If you are someone that believes that Iran should not have a robust nuclear program, are we better off today than we were 14 days ago before this war started?

[James Acton]

I absolutely believe Iran should not have nuclear weapons. And I believe we are worse off today than we were 14 days ago.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

James Acton, a really eye opening conversation and I'm super appreciative for you joining us today. And I'm thankful because our producer on hand told us she in fact is not a nuclear expert, but you are actually in real life a nuclear expert. So thank you for that.

[James Acton]

Thanks so much for having me.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Thank you, James. Moving on now to some headlines. Eight months after launching this campaign with.

[Courtney Kuby]

The vision of a city that every New Yorker could afford.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

We have won. It was a big night for State Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani, with former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo conceding the primary for New York City mayor. But it is not quite over. Cuomo has said he may run as an independent in the general election in November. And guess who else is running as an independent? Current New York City Mayor Eric Adams. It's gonna be a fun one. And turns out magic mushrooms might actually be magic. A new study presented at the Psychedelic Science Conference found that a single dose of psilocybin, that's the main psychoactive ingredient in magic mushrooms, kept 67% of people depression free for years. When combined with therapy, think calmer minds, brighter moods and better everyday functioning. Experts say more research is needed, but if these results hold, the future of mental health might just be trippier than we thought. And thank God the research is finally keeping up with my weekend activities. Just kidding. Let's talk basketball for a moment. The 2025 NBA Draft officially tips off tonight at the Barkley center here in New York. A staggering 59 pick set to reshape the league's landscape. All eyes on Duke sensation Cooper Flag, widely projected to go number one overall to the Dallas Mavericks. Coop's versatile two way game has scouts raving today. Co host Craig Melvin talked to him ahead of tonight's draft.

[Josh Mankiewicz]

What's the one thing that you're most excited about?

[James Acton]

I think just, you know, sharing this.

[Courtney Kuby]

Moment with my family.

[James Acton]

You know, I think it's a dream come true for all them and me as well.

[Josh Mankiewicz]

You think you'll be emotional?

[James Acton]

I know my mom's going to be.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Bawling her eyes out when my name gets called. Yeah, that is what moms do. Draft night tickets start around $37 for upper level seats, with lower level spots hitting 200 to $300 on resale sites. Not exactly pocket change, but when rumor has it that Cooper Flag's about to ink a single $62.7 million rookie deal. $300 to say that you were there doesn't sound so bad. One last one before we go. After more than six decades of riffing for Ireland, the Edge from U2 is finally officially Irish. David Hal Evan. Yeah, the Edge has a real name. He was born in England. He was raised in Dublin and then waited 62 years to get around to get in a passport. A little tardy with the paperwork, he joked at Monday's naturalization ceremony in Killarney. After a lifetime of playing to the world as an Irishman in spirit, it's now official. One love, one band, one passport. I'm here again Friday, folks. That's gonna do it for us today at here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugian. Thanks for hanging with us and we'll see you tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. If you're looking for new ways to get ahead, then you're our kind of person. We're Udemy and we help learners like you upskill in AI productivity, leadership and management and more. Learn at your own pace from real world experts. You can also prep for certifications that show employers what you know upskill for the career you [e-mail] now back to your regularly scheduled listening.