“It’s the Economy, Stupid”

Summary

Podcast Summary: Here’s the Scoop — “It’s the Economy, Stupid”
Date: November 5, 2025
Host: Yasmin Vossoughian (NBC News)

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Main Theme

This episode of "Here’s the Scoop" dives deep into the surprising election results amid the nation’s longest-ever government shutdown. The central thread: the impact of the economy, specifically the cost of living and tariffs, on the Democratic victories. The show unpacks how economic anxiety drove votes, the continuing welfare effects of tariffs, and the high-stakes Supreme Court case that could decide the future of President Trump’s signature trade policy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Democratic Election Wins in a Trump Era

• Overview:
  • After a string of Democratic victories in key states, host Yasmin Vossoughian sets the scene: “For the first time in a very long time, Democrats won big... and just as the clock struck midnight, the government shutdown officially became the longest in American history, standing now 36 days.” (00:52–01:30)
• Government Shutdown Impact:
  • NBC’s Ryan Nobles reports from Capitol Hill: Democratic moderates want a shutdown resolution, but emboldened progressives see leverage in holding out.
  • President Trump blames the ongoing shutdown for the Republican losses, but isn’t offering compromise—instead threatening to blow up the filibuster, a move currently lacking Senate GOP support. (02:12–03:21)
  • Quote (Ryan Nobles): “We’re still back to where we started. The two sides in their corners without true resolution in sight.” (03:16)

2. The Economy as the Deciding Factor

• Dem Message Resonates:

  • Yasmin: “Why did Democrats win so big? Well, in the words of political strategist James Carville, it is the economy, stupid.” (03:21)
  • Democratic candidates focused on cost of living, economic anxiety, and President Trump’s tariffs.

• Main Street vs. Wall Street:

  • Brian Chung highlights tariffs as the biggest change for voters: “People are feeling that at the store. They’re feeling it when they try to go buy a car. That is the thing Democrats in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City really hit on... the cost of living is up.” (04:07–04:27)
  • Wall Street may look healthy, but ordinary Americans “are actually feeling” rising living costs. (04:43)

• Cross-Class Voter Impact:

  • Even wealthier counties swung blue, angered by high taxes and the threat of more.
  • Quote (Brian Chung, 05:19): “It was kind of across all income spectrums, this message of the cost of living going up... prices are still going up in this country at an aggregate level, despite the president’s assertions that prices have come down beyond gas.”

3. Tariffs and Their Real-World Consequences

• Tariffs Under Scrutiny (06:56–08:55)

  • Supreme Court heard arguments about whether the President can unilaterally impose global tariffs under emergency powers.
  • Brian Chung: Most American companies are still absorbing these costs for now, but “if they stick around for six months, a year... the bite will eventually get to Americans, and you’re seeing some signs of that.” (07:12)

• Holiday Example: Artificial Christmas Trees (08:00–09:15)

  • Due to tariffs, prices could rise by as much as 10%.
  • “Costco... said they’re going to have to stock fewer Christmas trees... because of backlogs that are related to the tariffs. That could lead to lower inventory, less selection for customers.” (08:09)
  • Even $20 increases matter: “If you’re living paycheck to paycheck, even that $20 margin could really make the difference for you.” (08:55)

• Government Shutdown’s Economic Effects (09:15–10:07)

  • In Virginia, 6 in 10 voters said government cuts affected their finances.
  • Federal employees missing paychecks, families trading down on basics—these economic strains fueled electoral discontent.

4. The Supreme Court Weighs In On Tariffs (11:43–17:31)

• Legal Focus:

  • NBC Supreme Court reporter Lawrence Hurley explains challenge to President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which doesn’t mention tariffs specifically.
  • Key Legal Issue: Does IEEPA empower the president to impose broad, sweeping tariffs, or does that power remain with Congress? Hurley: “There were certainly justices, both conservative and liberal, who expressed concerns about whether Congress could... have given the president such broad authority...” (14:52)

• Presidential Pressure:

  • Trump publicly pressures the Court, but Hurley downplays its influence: “The justices know full well they’ve got briefs from all sides... they should be able to figure out for themselves how much of Trump’s talk is just talk.” (16:46)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Yasmin Vossoughian on Democrats’ electoral momentum:
  “For the first time in a very long time, Democrats won big... and just as the clock struck midnight, the government shutdown officially became the longest in American history, standing now 36 days.” (00:52)

• Ryan Nobles’ Capitol Hill vibe check:
  “The two sides [are] in their corners without true resolution in sight.” (03:16)

• Brian Chung on everyday impact:
  “People are feeling [tariffs] at the store. They’re feeling it when they try to go buy a car. That is the thing Democrats... really hit on... the cost of living is up.” (04:13)

• Economic “feels vs. reals”:
  Yasmin: “I always talk about the feels versus the reals… Wall Street seems like it’s doing quite well. But then you talk about what is happening on Main Street and how people are actually feeling.” (04:43)

• Christmas Tree as economics case study:
  Brian: “Prices could go up by 10% on those Christmas trees because a majority are made in China... those costs will go on to Americans.” (08:09)

• Yasmin on creative cost-saving:
  “You may want to just trek into a forest that is not a national preserved area and chop down your own tree. We are not advocating for—don’t get into trouble... but yes, going fresh this year might be a way to save some money.” (10:07-10:24)

• Lawrence Hurley on Supreme Court skepticism:
  “There were certainly justices, both conservative and liberal, who express concerns about whether Congress... would have given the president such broad authority to impose tariffs...” (14:52)

• On presidential pressure:
  Hurley: “They’re not supposed to be deciding how important this is for Trump’s agenda... they should be deciding it based on what the law says.” (16:46)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:52–02:12 — Setting up the electoral landscape, shutdown context, and bringing in Ryan Nobles
• 02:12–03:21 — Capitol Hill reaction, split among Democrats, Trump’s response
• 03:21–06:56 — “It’s the economy, stupid”: Voting trends, cost of living, tariffs, economic pain
• 06:56–08:55 — Tariffs’ impact on business and consumers, holiday shopping example
• 09:15–10:07 — Government shutdown’s impact on personal finances, voter discontent
• 11:43–17:31 — Supreme Court spotlight: Tariffs legal debate, Trump’s pressure on the judiciary

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Quick Headlines (Non-Economic)

• UPS cargo plane crash in Louisville, 9 dead, major airport shutdown (17:35)
• White House close to deal with pharma companies to lower prices for weight-loss drugs (18:45)
• US military strike sinks alleged cartel vessel, 2 killed (19:42)
• Dark showering as latest wellness trend (20:32)
• Tom Brady clones dog via controversial biotech startup (21:10)

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Conclusion and Tone

The episode’s tone is brisk, conversational, and sometimes irreverent, with an emphasis on making complex political and economic issues relatable. It balances serious news analysis (shutdown, elections, Supreme Court) with lighter lifestyle and science headlines.

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Summary Takeaway:
The Democratic sweep in traditionally red or swing states is attributed to pocketbook issues—soaring cost of living, high taxes, and the fallout from Trump’s government shutdown and tariffs. The future of tariffs—and perhaps the broader economic landscape—awaits a consequential Supreme Court ruling, with legal, political, and voter anxiety all at a fever pitch as the year closes.

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Transcript

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[Beth]

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[Yasmin Bissougian]

Welcome to Here's a Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Bissougian. In case you missed it, here's the Scoop went live overnight for our first ever election special, we dropped a special episode in your feeds. And if you want to see my gorgeous face, by the way, I did not write that. You can watch our episode on the NBC News YouTube channel. And while our team at Here's a Scoop may be running on soda and candy, we could never leave you hanging. So today on the show, we are covering everything from dark showering to dog clothing. Yeah, you heard us right. Exhaustion or genius, you'll just have to wait and see. But up first, as you know, election results came rolling in last night on the first major election night at the second Trump term. For the first time in a very long time, Democrats won big winning victories in the Virginia and New Jersey governors races by huge margins, passing a Democrat led redistricting vote in California and electing a self described Democratic socialist to lead New York City as mayor. And just as the clock struck midnight, the the government shutdown officially became the longest in American history, standing now 36 days. And with Democrats seemingly empowered by these sweeping winds, we're all asking if this could bring an end to the shutdown or keep us stuck in limbo for longer. Want to bring in NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles for a reality check?

[Ryan Nobles]

So I would say the vibes on Capitol Hill right now are definitely uneven, you know, and can feel that there is a faction of moderate Democrats that are ready for this shutdown to come to an end. And they are definitely working behind the scenes with their Republican colleagues to find some sort of an exit ramp. But, boy, that election result from Tuesday night has a number of other Democrats holding firm, saying that this is the time to force Republicans to the negotiating table. Among them, Senator Bernie Sanders, who is just imploring on his Senate colleagues not to break. The question is, how do Republicans respond to all of this? President Trump clearly was unhappy with those election results. He directly said that the shutdown was at least partly to blame for it. But at this point, he's not talking about negotiating. He's talking about blowing up the Senate institution of the filibuster, which requires 60 votes to pass legislation like this. Right now, there is not enough effort among Senate Republicans to do that. So in many ways, we're still back to where we started. The two sides in their corners without true resolution in sight. We'll have to see if the next 48 hours changes any of that.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

So why did Democrats win so big? Well, in the words of political strategist James Carville, it is the economy, stupid. Democratic candidates made that cost of living a centerpiece of their campaigns opposing the president's economic agenda, including his global tariffs and the voters bit. To learn more about how voters on Main street feel across America, I want to bring in NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Hi, Brian.

[Brian Chung]

Hey. Yes.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

So a year ago today, the president was reelected, president largely on his promises, right. To rebuild the economy. Last night, Democrat candidates, they won running campaigns literally on fixing now the Trump economy. What has changed in the past year for voters?

[Brian Chung]

Well, I think the big thing is, is tariffs. That is the elephant in the room, if you will. If you talk about what changes in a year, I think for the most part, a lot of people would say not that much. But the tariffs have been commanding so much of the headlines. And people are feeling that at the store. They're feeling it when they're trying to go buy a car. So that is the thing that Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia and in New York City have really hit on. They're trying to say the cost of living is up. And that's something that resonates with people. That's probably what led to Abigail Spamberger winning in Virginia and Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey as well as Zoram Mandani in New York winning last night.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

It's interesting because I always talk about the feels versus the reals, Right. And for instance, if we're talking about Wall Street, Right. Wall street seems like it's doing quite well. But then you talk about what is happening as you mentioned on Main street and how people are actually feeling. And it was these targeted messages of affordability that really seemed to resonate with a lot of voters in a time in which we are being led by someone who has based his campaign and his presidency on being able to build a strong economy.

[Brian Chung]

Yeah, absolutely. And I think that what's so interesting about the results last night, it was kind of across all income spectrums, this message of the cost of living going up. And you look at the numbers on inflation, which we only have a delayed read on because the government shutdown, but prices are still going up in this country at an aggregate level, despite the president's assertions that prices have come down beyond gas, which is a big deal. At an aggregate level, prices are still going up, albeit at a slower pace than what we saw during the peak of inflation during the Biden administration. But nonetheless, when you look at New York City, what led to Zoran Mamdani winning was this message to specifically lower income New Yorkers, who. They do resonate with the promise of free buses. They do resonate with the promise of rent stabilization, because rent is very expensive in New York, and riding the bus is a daily thing that gets people to their jobs in New York. But you also saw New Jersey, where you look at a county like Morris County. This is a pretty wealthy sort of extension of the New York City metro area, by the way. This is also my home county. And this was something that Steve Kornacki said was going to be a key county in the New Jersey election. And I think what resonated in Morris county, because this. This is a higher income county that you're talking about is the ads that Mikey Sherrill was running accusing the GOP candidate of wanting to raise the sales tax to 10%, calling him basically high tax Jack, Jack Cittarelli. That resonated with a lot of people in New Jersey who are really fed up with the high taxes, which do rank among the highest in the nation. And that was what led to a stronger swing towards the Democrats in this gubernatorial election compared to the election last year where they did go for Trump. So.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

So I want to talk tariffs, too. Right, because you mentioned the. The Supreme Court. They're gonna be hearing an argument over whether or not the president has the authority to impose these tariffs. Are we seeing these tariffs impacting Americans on the ground, from small businesses now to big businesses?

[Brian Chung]

Well, the data would tell us that a lot of companies are still eating the costs of these tariffs. American companies, I want to point out, because again, the way that these tariffs work is, is that it's the company that's importing it, which is almost always an American company, that's going to pay those higher costs. Now, they could choose to pass it on to consumers. And at an aggregate level, we're only seeing some small bleed through. But when you talk anecdotally, there is a lot to be said that American consumers, especially if these tariffs do end up staying put. Again, it's a big if with the Supreme Court weighing whether or not they'll allow the President to use his presidential authority to unilaterally put these tariffs on essentially every country around the world. But if they stick around for six months, a year, longer than that, then the bite will eventually get to Americans, and you're seeing some signs of that.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

And, Brian, as we're hitting the holiday season, one sign that we're potentially seeing is the price of artificial Christmas trees.

[Brian Chung]

I was talking to a CEO recently who was saying that prices could go up by 10% on those Christmas trees because a majority of them are made in China. That's the only country that really has the infrastructure to kind of hand wire all these fake Christmas trees and put the lights in. And for that reason, those costs will go on to Americans. I mean, you look at Costco, they've even been talking about Christmas trees. They said they're going to have to stock fewer Christmas trees in their warehouses because they need to make room for more furniture because of backlogs that are related to the tariffs. And so that could lead to lower inventory, less selection for customers. That is something that's going to touch every type of American in many types of industries, barring any sort of big, substantial decision coming from the Supreme Court.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

The Christmas tree example is a perfect one because it's also oftentimes an emotional purchase, and a lot of people do it. And if it's a $200, for instance, fake Christmas tree, instead of spending $200, which maybe you budgeted for, you're now spending potentially $220. Where if you're living paycheck to paycheck, even that $20 margin could really make the difference for you.

[Brian Chung]

Absolutely. And, you know, here's another factor is the government shutdown. Right? I mean, you know, you talk about what's going on in Virginia. Where I could see a strong argument being made for Abigail Spanberger winning that election in Virginia was because 6 in 10 voters that told NBC News and exit polls that the federal government cuts did affect their finances in some way. And if you're thinking about not only the tariff impact, but your paychecks aren't clearing. You're still having to go to work, but you're not getting paid in the meantime. That's going to lead to a lot of strain on your family. Where are those compromises going to have to be made in terms of trading down to cook dinner for your family or for things like buying a few extra ornaments for your Christmas tree this year? Those are things that American families are having to think about in November of 2025. And that's a big reason why you see this discontent, you see this polling that Americans are clearly unhappy with the economic situation.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

But by the way, I would say real trees living here in Brooklyn are quite expensive. They are very expensive. So you may want to just trek into a forest that is not a national preserved area and chop down your own tree. We are not advocating for, don't get.

[Brian Chung]

Into trouble to go into forests and chop down trees. But yes, going fresh this year might be a way to save some money.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

Brian Chung, thank you. Appreciate it.

[Brian Chung]

Thanks, guys.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

All right, when we are back, we are looking into the tariff crystal ball. Will the Supreme Court let President Trump issue his global tariffs? Stay with us. Every business has unique needs. Perhaps your business needs a better way to manage cash flow, help protect against fraud or efficiently bank online or. Or maybe you're on a roll and ready to expand whatever your business needs. Atlantic Union bank pairs modern technology with knowledgeable bankers dedicated to making banking for your business easier. Call visit us online or drop into an Atlantic Union bank branch today, Atlantic Union bank, any way you bank. NBC News focuses on the facts, looking.

[Brian Chung]

Deeper and listening wider.

[Beth]

It's clear reporting free from opinion, facts, clarity, calm.

[Brian Chung]

NBC News reporting for America.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

Hey, guys, Willie Geist here reminding you to check out the Sunday Sit down podcast. On this week's episode, I get together.

[Beth]

With one of the funniest people in.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

Hollywood, Judd Apatow, the director of all those hilarious movies and the author of a new book about his life in comedy. You can get our conversation for free wherever you download your podcasts. And we're back with here's this group from NBC News. President Trump's signature economic policy was in front of the Supreme Court today. That is right. We're talking about tariffs and whether the president has the authority to impose them under the International Emergency Economic Powers act, as he has claimed. The court's conservative majority has sided with the administration on a number of contentious cases, but legal analysts are not so sure about this one. I want to bring in Lawrence Hurley, our Senior Supreme Court reporter who was actually at the court this morning to hear the arguments. Hi, Lawrence.

[Beth]

Hi, Beth.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

Great to have you. Explain the act for us. And the legal question here when it pertains to the tariffs.

[Beth]

Right. So this is an emergency law, as the title suggests, that allows the president to take various actions against foreign countries on economic issues issues. And the question in the case is whether this law specifically allows for tariffs to be imposed. And the various companies and states that have challenged the law say that it doesn't. And they point out the fact that, for example, the law doesn't actually include the word tariffs. And the government obviously says, well, it allows for these very broad uses of executive power to address disputes with other countries. And surely if you allow, as it does for things like trade embargoes, then surely it should allow for tariffs as well, even if it doesn't specifically mention them. And that's the argument they made before the court today and faced a pretty skeptical bench.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but under this act, the president really only has the ability and power to kind of regulate tariffs during, quote, unquote, unusual and extraordinary threats. Is that not how it reads?

[Beth]

Yeah. Well, I mean, putting aside the question of whether it actually addresses tariffs at all, because of course, it doesn't specifically mention tariffs. But, yeah, the law can only be invoked at a time of an emergency, which is seen as being an urgent threat to the nation. And that is an issue that has come up in the litigation. But it wasn't really the center of the court's arguments today because, partly because the court usually defers to the president when it comes to things like emergency declarations. In this case, the Trump administration is saying that the emergency is the trade deficit. And of course, the people challenging the law say, well, trade deficit's been around for, like, decades, so how could you possibly say that that's an emergency now? But that's what the Trump administration says. And they've also imposed some other tariffs under the law to address with the spread of fentanyl. And that's also an issue in this case.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

So you were in court today. How was it received these arguments?

[Beth]

Yeah, I mean, the bench overall was pretty skeptical towards the Trump administration. Obviously, we can't say for sure how the court's gonna rule yet. We'll get a full written ruling in a few months or maybe sooner. But there were certainly justices, both conservative and liberal, who express concerns about whether Congress could, in a statute like this that doesn't even mention tariffs would have given the president such broad authority to impose tariffs, not just in very narrow ways, which it has done in other specific laws, but in such a sweeping way that would allow a president, as Trump has done, to impose these tariffs across the entire globe and across, you know, every type of product that comes into the United States. There are various different legal issues at play, which I won't bore people with, but basically, one of the key issues is whether Congress would have done that, and if they did, did they have to say specifically that they were doing that, and if they didn't, is that illegal? And also if Congress even has the authority to do that, because it's a core power under the Constitution that Congress is the one that sets taxes and tariffs, duties, not the president. So those are all kind of questions that were in the air this morning.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

So there was a moment in which we thought the president may very well go to these oral arguments. And then a few days ago, he confirmed he, in fact, would not be attending because he said, and I'm paraphrasing here, he didn't want to get in the way of the work the Supreme Court is doing. But he has commented many times publicly as to how he wants the Supreme Court to rule. How much do these justices, this conservative leaning court, take these types of public comments by the Commander in Chief into account in making these decisions?

[Beth]

Yeah, I mean, of course, this is characteristic of the president. He. He likes to put the screws on, rhetorically speaking, when he wants to get something done, whether it's Congress or states or the courts, and he's done that a lot this year. The rhetoric is pretty strong. But that's obviously not what the court's supposed to be deciding. They're not supposed to be decid deciding how important this is for Trump's agenda, how important it is for his legacy, or how important is even in terms of the economic consequences. They should be deciding it based on what the law says. The justices know full well they've got briefs from all sides laying out all these arguments. So they should be able to figure out for themselves how much of Trump's talk is just talk.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

Lawrence early, we thank you.

[Beth]

Great. Thanks for having me.

[Yasmin Bissougian]

All right, let's get to some headlines. A UPS cargo plane burst into flames and crashed just after takeoff from Louisville's Muhammad Ali International Airport Tuesday night, erupting into a massive fireball that lit up the sky. The McDonnell Douglas MD11 freighter was headed for Honolulu with three crew members on board. Video from the crash shows a large fireball and thick plume of smoke rising from the crash site after the plane went down in an industrial area near the Runway, striking at least two businesses, officials saying the plane was carrying about 38,000 gallons of fuel. At least nine people were killed and 11 others were injured. The airport shut down for several hours and UPS temporarily suspended operations at its massive worldport hub while investigators from the NTSB are probing what went wrong. In a statement, UPS said it was, quote, terribly saddened by the crash. The White House is reportedly close to a deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to slash prices for popular weight loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound, bringing the starting dose down to $149 a month, according to two people familiar with the plan, which was first reported by Endpoint News. The people confirmed the possible deal on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. In exchange for the lower prices, Medicare would begin covering the drugs. For some beneficiaries, it's not yet clear whether the lower prices would apply across insurance plans or only for people paying in cash, and the details could still change. A White House spokesperson called talk of any deal quote, speculation. While Lilly and Novo Nordisk confirmed discussions with the administration, they shared no further details. Two people were killed on Tuesday in the eastern Pacific Ocean when the US Military carried out a, quote, lethal kinetic strike on a vessel that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed was operated by a designated terrorist organization and was involved in illicit narcotics smuggling. The strike, carried out at the direction of President Trump, is the latest in a series of US Military attacks on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that have resulted in at least 66 deaths since the campaign began back in September. The president has previously said he will not seek congressional approval or issue a declaration of war against cartels, which his administration has designated as foreign terrorist organizations. Dark showering has been added to the infinite list of wellness hacks. This trend is exactly what it sounds like Turning off all of your lights, hopping in the shower for added relaxation. And it's not for nothing. Real simple says a dark shower can have the same benefits as turning off the lights and screens before bed. Reducing stress, improving sleep, giving folks a chance to reset recharge after an incredibly long day. Taking a shower in pitch darkness isn't ideal for safety. Mindfulness won't be top of mind if you're concussed, but a soothing dim light should be enough to feel the difference. NFL legend Tom Brady revealed that his dog is a clone of his previous Pitbull mix. Blood from his original dog, Lua, was drawn before she died back in 2023, then used to create the clone puppy. Juni Brady used technology from a company called Colossal, which, by the way, he's an investor in Colossal, which clones endangered species, made headlines earlier this year after announcing that they created three direwolf puppies. The company recently acquired two other leading animal cloning companies. One of them, ViaGen, is known for cloning Barbra Streisand's dog Samantha and Paris Hilton's dog Diamond Baby. According to ViaGen's website, dog cloning costs $50,000. Unless you have that kind of cash, you're just gonna have to face the day your dog goes to the big farmhouse in the sky like the rest of us. Although I would clone my dog Yogi in a hot second if I could afford it. All right, that's gonna do it for us. Thanks for listening to here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vestugin. We'll be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what you heard, then like us, back wherever you get your podcasts. We'll see you tomorrow.

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