Let’s Get Polling with Steve Kornacki

Summary

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Here's the Scoop – “Let’s Get Polling with Steve Kornacki”

Podcast: Here's the Scoop (NBC News)
Episode Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Yasmin Vossoughian
Guest: Steve Kornacki, Chief Data Analyst, NBC News

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Episode Overview

On Election Day 2025, Yasmin Vossoughian invites NBC’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki for a deep dive into NBC’s latest polling and how it could forecast the night’s pivotal races—including governorships in Virginia and New Jersey. Kornacki unpacks new data on President Trump’s approval, the ongoing government shutdown, the public mood toward both political parties, and what strategists in both camps should be thinking about right now. The conversation provides listeners with essential context and a preview of themes likely to shape the 2026 midterm and tonight’s election results.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Poll Results: Tough Numbers for Trump and GOP

[01:39 – 03:01]

• Trump’s Declining Approval:

  • Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 47% (May 2025) to 43%, now more in line with his first-term numbers.
  • Kornacki connects this decline to historic difficulties for the president’s party during midterms, referencing the 2018 “blue wave.”
  • “It’s the poll is a tough one for Trump and for his party... down to 43% from 47%.” — Steve Kornacki [01:49]

• Generic Congressional Ballot:

  • The Democrats now lead by 8 points (50% to 42%) — a significant turn from even polling at the start of the year.
  • Signs point to potential trouble for Republicans in both tonight’s races and looking ahead to 2026.

2. Who Gets the Blame for the Government Shutdown?

[03:01 – 04:08]

• Voters Blame GOP Slightly More:

  • 52% blame Republicans (including Trump) for the “longest government shutdown in U.S. history”; 42% blame Democrats — a margin that pollsters note could shift in future polls.
  • Historical context: Shutdowns often cause temporary polling dips for the GOP, but the long-term effect is uncertain.

• Democrats Face Headwinds Too:

  • Notably, more blame is falling on Democrats than in previous shutdowns, reflecting wider negative sentiment about both parties.

• “Their hope is...that the sentiment against Trump, against his administration’s actions, against Republican rule in Washington is strong enough to override all of that and to carry them to victory in 2026.” — Steve Kornacki [04:08]

3. The Core Dilemma: Who Do Voters Dislike Less?

[04:08 – 05:16]

• Bad Brand for Both Sides:

  • Both parties’ images are underwater—even among their own voters—but Democrats are betting anti-Trump sentiment will save them.
  • “Democrats are essentially hoping that, that voters dislike Republicans and the president more than they dislike them.” — Yasmin Vossoughian [05:08]

• Dem Strategy:

  • Focus voter attention on Trump’s actions and presidency, rather than the party’s own weaknesses.

4. Races to Watch: Virginia and New Jersey

[05:28 – 07:03]

• Both States Tilt Blue:

  • “Democrats are supposed to win both of these, even in sort of a neutral environment.” — Steve Kornacki [05:49]
  • Virginia is seen as a safe Democratic hold; GOP insiders aren’t optimistic.
  • New Jersey is more competitive—Republicans are underdogs but see a real opportunity, especially if national trends break their way.
  • Kornacki signals that a big Democratic win in New Jersey could trigger GOP anxiety about 2026.

• Indicators for 2026:

  • County- and city-level results in both states could preview trends for the next House races.
  • “You can find the places where they’re sort of gonna be key in Jersey and Virginia. And if those areas are going strongly Democratic... there’s gonna be a lot of tea leaf reading there by both parties.” — Steve Kornacki [06:52]

5. Deep-Dive Election Night Preview

[07:03 – 08:26]

• What Kornacki is Watching:

  • Microtrends in specific towns/cities, especially Hispanic-majority areas of New Jersey where Trump previously made huge gains.
  • “We want to see can the Republicans keep that momentum going without Donald Trump being the candidate? Does it all go away? Where does it land?” — Steve Kornacki [07:41]

• Wider Stakes:

  • Results tonight may reveal the national mood at the end of Trump’s first year back in office.
  • California redistricting races could also have major implications for the 2026 House balance.

• Kornacki’s Enthusiasm:

  • “What’s the word that goes above excited?” — Steve Kornacki [08:30]

6. Election Results Coverage Plug

[08:26 – 08:50]

• Yasmin and Steve will be on NBC News live from 11pm–1am covering results and offering analysis.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s the poll is a tough one for Trump and for his party. His approval rating has declined since May.” — Steve Kornacki [01:49]
• “Democrats are essentially hoping that... voters dislike Republicans and the president more than they dislike them.” — Yasmin Vossoughian [05:08]
• “You can find the places where they’re sort of gonna be key in Jersey and Virginia. And if those areas are going strongly Democratic... there’s gonna be a lot of tea leaf reading there by both parties.” — Steve Kornacki [06:52]
• “What’s the word that goes above excited?” — Steve Kornacki [08:30]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Election Day Polling Overview & Trump’s Approval: [01:39 – 03:01]
• Government Shutdown – Who Gets the Blame?: [03:01 – 04:08]
• Democrats’ “Dislike” Gamble: [04:08 – 05:16]
• Statewide Races and Strategic Implications: [05:28 – 07:03]
• Kornacki’s Election Night Outlook: [07:03 – 08:26]
• Plug for NBC News Election Night Coverage: [08:26 – 08:50]

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Final Takeaways

• NBC’s polling paints a challenging landscape for Trump and Republicans, with discontent driven by the shutdown and declining approval.
• Both major parties remain widely disliked, and Democrats’ path rests on making the election a referendum on Trump.
• The results in tonight’s key races—especially New Jersey—may offer an early roadmap to the 2026 midterms.
• Kornacki and Vossoughian’s analysis is sharp, candid, and provides listeners with both context and key markers to watch as results come in.

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Transcript

[Steve Kornacki]

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[Yasmin Vesugian]

Hey, everybody, and welcome to here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugian. It is Election Day. Voters across the country are heading to the polls for a couple of pivotal elections. And here at 30 Rock, it's our super Bowl. So going into the day, NBC News has conducted a poll to figure out how voters feel about the administration, the government shutdown and their views about the parties. For more on this, I want to bring in chief data analyst at NBC News, Steve Kornacki to break down what we found and what this tells us about how some of the key races might actually play out tonight. Hi, Steve.

[Steve Kornacki]

Yasmin, Happy Election Day.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Happy Election Day. Here we go. Give us the top line here. Our first poll since the spring. What are you learning?

[Steve Kornacki]

It's the poll is a tough one for Trump and for his party. His approval rating has declined since May. It's not a huge drop, but it's down to 43% from 47% and 43% sort of more in line with where he was during his first term. And one of the things that happened during his first term was Republicans had a very difficult midterm election in 2018. That was the blue wave here. They lost control of the House. They're looking ahead right now to 2026. They're trying to keep control of the House then. They're looking at these elections today. They're trying to win governorships in Virginia and New Jersey. New Jersey's the one where they really think they have a shot. And these are the kinds of numbers that typically have made difficult for candidates from the president's party to win elections like that and then you add into that that this poll also measured the generic ballot. We're asking folks, which party do you want to control? Congress. And the Democrats now lead in our poll 50 to 42, an 8 point advantage for the Democrats on the generic ballot. Again, that was basically even at the start of this year. So it's interesting timing for the poll with the elections today because the numbers we see in this poll typically have led to very bad results for the White House party in elections. We'll see if that's what happens today.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

And the thing is, I mean, in some respects, nobody really fared very well and we'll get into that in a second. But I want to talk about how folks are seeing the government shutdown right now because you found in this poll that people are blaming the Republicans more than they are the Democrats for what we are now in the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah. The margin is 52 to 42, 52% saying they primarily blame either the Republicans in Congress or President Trump. 42% say they primarily blame the Democrats in Congress. You know, so one thing our pollsters did caution us is that in past shutdowns in these polls, the numbers have sometimes moved against Republicans temporarily. So it is worth keeping in mind, especially when we talk about that generic ballot, you know, if that is something that will outlast the shutdown, however long this does end up going, which to me at least makes today's election that much more interesting because we're going to see if the numbers we're finding here produce the kinds of results they typically do.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

But the thing is, Democrats aren't actually getting off scot free. Right. Because the folks are actually blaming the Democrats is higher than we have seen in the past.

[Steve Kornacki]

It is. I mean, though I would say that generic ballot number the Democrats are taking an awful lot of heart from, because that's their hope here. Their hope is that for whatever problems they have as a party, and our poll finds they have a real bad image problem, they are not a well liked party at all. In fact, they're a widely disliked party and that includes by many self identified Democrats themselves. But for all of the problems they have, what they are banking on is that the sentiment against Trump, against his administration's actions, against Republican rule in Washington is strong enough to override all of that and to carry them to victory in 2026. Certainly they're looking to get the House and they'd love to get the Senate. That's a taller order. And again today, Virginia, and especially in New Jersey Where I think Democrats have been concerned about how their candidate, Mikey Sherrill, the campaign, she's run there, they think she's, she's sort of underwhelmed as a candidate. They are counting on anti Trump sentiment, making that sort of obviating that.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

So putting this in layman's terms, Democrats are essentially hoping that, that voters dislike Republicans and the president more than they dislike them.

[Steve Kornacki]

Yes. And also that they are more focused on Trump and their negative feelings towards Trump than they are in negative feelings they have toward the Democrats because Trump's the president.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

So if you're a strategist right now, right. You're like, okay, how am I gonna do my messaging here? If you're a Democratic strategist or a Republican strategist, and you're trying to figure out what to do next, you're looking at this government shutdown. You're seeing that both sides are really being blamed, but Republicans are being blamed more. What's the takeaway from, from this?

[Steve Kornacki]

Look, Democrats are supposed to win both of these, even in sort of a neutral environment. These are both blue states. These are both states where Trump, you're.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Talking about Virginia and New Jersey. Virginia and New Jersey to win both.

[Steve Kornacki]

Of these, where Trump lost by about six points. And for, for some very particular reasons, Virginia looks like even Republicans privately will kind of acknowledge they don't think they got a shot in that governor's race there. New Jersey's the interesting one, though, because Republicans do think they have a shot. They're the underdog, but they think they have a shot. And if, if you end up looking, that is a very solid win for the Democrats in New Jersey and like a landslide win for the Democrats in Virginia. And it's coming with polls showing what our NBC poll that we're discussing is showing. You know, I do think that's gonna start to ratchet up the attention or the concern, I should say, for Republicans as they look ahead to 2026. And we could look inside these results sort of at particular county cities, towns, where you'll kind of see the voters who, who are gonna be the voters nationally, the type of voters who are gonna decide the house in 2026, you can find the places where they're sort of gonna be key in Jersey and Virginia. And if those areas are going strongly Democratic, I, I, I think that's, there's gonna be a lot of tea leaf reading there by both parties.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

What are you watching for tonight? You and I are gonna be together starting at 11pm Going all the way till 1am the hope is, is that we won't have to go any further beyond that. Although I know you would like to.

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, speak for yourself, Yasmin.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

But what are you watching for tonight?

[Steve Kornacki]

A lot of counties, a lot of cities, towns that I think are, we're going to be able to use to tell stories about, you know, that we can broaden this out and talk nationally about, you know, for instance, in New Jersey, one of the reasons Trump did so well there in 24 was he made gains with non white voters, Hispanic voters in particular, massive, massive gains. This was a huge story, as folks know. Well, we're getting the test of it in New Jersey because we've got a lot of cities there in New Jersey that are 3/4 80% Hispanic where Trump made like 30 point gains. And we want to see can the Republicans keep that momentum going without Donald Trump being the candidate? Does it all go away? Where does it land? So that's the kind of thing I think we're going to be, we're going to be looking at. Look, California is interesting for, you know, redistricting, control of the House next year. There are some smaller races that could have national storylines in them. But look, every election can tell you something. And we've kind of been starved for, you know, we've had polling certainly, and it's, I'm a fan of polling, but there's no substitute for an election and getting some big statewide elections here. I think a really good readout we're going to get here on the mood toward the end of the first year of Trump's second term.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

I'm excited. Steve Kornacki, are you excited?

[Steve Kornacki]

What's the word that goes above excited?

[Yasmin Vesugian]

But yes, by the way, I mentioned it earlier, we're going to go live to cover all the election results tonight, 11pm to 1am catch us on NBC news.com or on the NBC News YouTube channel. I'm going to be there. Steve's going to be there. We got a lot of other players that are going to be there as well. So come and join us. We're going to have some fun. Thank you, Steve.

[Steve Kornacki]

Can't wait, Yasmin, thanks.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

All right, we're going to take a quick break. When we're back, the headlines.

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[Yasmin Vesugian]

Welcome back to here's the scoop of NBC News. Let's get to some headlines. Dick Cheney, the hard charging conservative who reshaped American power from behind the scenes and served as the nation's 46th vice president, has died at the age of 84. Widely considered one of the most influential figures ever to hold the office, Cheney's decades in Washington span from the Ford administration to the front lines of the post 911 era. He served as White House chief of staff under President Gerald Ford, represented Wyoming in Congress for six terms, and led the Pentagon during the first Gulf War under President George H.W. bush. But it was his tenure as vice president from 2001 to 2009 under George W. Bush that cemented his legacy. In the wake of the September 11 attacks, Cheney became the chief architect of the war on terror, driving policies that expanded executive power, authorized enhanced interrogation techniques, and led the US Into Iraq on intelligence later proven false. To admirers, Cheney was a model of conviction, unyielding, strategic and unafraid to wield power. To critics, he embodied the excesses of post 9 11America. A survivor of five heart attacks and a 2012 heart transplant, Cheney remained defiant to the end, insisting he'd, quote, do it again in a minute. In his later years, he broke ranks with his party to condemn Donald Trump. He said during the general election last year that he would vote for the Democratic nominee, then Vice President Kamala Harris, in the 2024 presidential election. Trump responded by calling him a, quote, irrelevant rino. His politics may have evolved, but his instinct to stand his ground never did. Astronomers have spotted the brightest black hole flare ever seen, a cosmic light show that briefly outshone 10 trillion suns. The blast, first detected in 2018 by California's Palomar Observatory, came from a distant galaxy roughly 10 billion light years away. Scientists say it happened when the giant star, about 30 times the size of our sun, drifted too close and got torn apart by the black hole's immense, immense gravity. The result was a burst so powerful it lit up the universe like a warning flare, offering a rare glimpse at just how destructive black holes can be. We have all got that one friend who loves to brag about the amount of steps they walk. Well, it turns out the number of daily steps that you take may actually delay Alzheimer's disease. In a new study out this week, researchers found walking just a few thousand steps a day can slow cognitive decline in older adults, who are at an increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. According to the research published in the journal Nature medicine, walking just 3,000 to 5,000 steps a day can already boost brain health compared to staying sedentary. The sweet spot, though, seems to be around 5,000 to 7,500 steps. So next time your step counting friend starts bragging, maybe give them some credit. They might just be walking their way to a sharper mind. Today at Windsor Castle, David Beckham was formally knighted by King Charles, officially becoming Sir David. The former England soccer captain was recognized for his outstanding contributions to sport and charity and was joined by his wife, Victoria, who will now be known as Lady Victoria. Certainly posh. His parents were also at the ceremony. Bex had this to say after the ceremony.

[David Beckham]

I've been lucky to have won things in my career and done things and played for my country and captain my country. But without doubt, this is the moment that makes me very proud.

[Yasmin Vesugian]

Not bad for a boy from East London who rose to become a national icon. In a personal touch, Victoria designed the suit he wore for the ceremony, a quiet nod to the partnership that has defined much of his life and his career. Okay, that is going to do it for this episode of Here's a scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugin. But you guys, it is your lucky day. We're going to be back in just a little bit. We are going live to cover all the election results tonight from 11:00pm to 1:00am Catch us on NBC news.com or on the NBC News YouTube channel. I'm going to be there. Steve Koraki is going to be there and lots of other NBC players join us and like us wherever you get your podcasts. I'll see you in a few.

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