Here's the Scoop – “Let’s Get Polling with Steve Kornacki”

Podcast: Here's the Scoop (NBC News)
Episode Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Yasmin Vossoughian
Guest: Steve Kornacki, Chief Data Analyst, NBC News

Episode Overview

On Election Day 2025, Yasmin Vossoughian invites NBC’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki for a deep dive into NBC’s latest polling and how it could forecast the night’s pivotal races—including governorships in Virginia and New Jersey. Kornacki unpacks new data on President Trump’s approval, the ongoing government shutdown, the public mood toward both political parties, and what strategists in both camps should be thinking about right now. The conversation provides listeners with essential context and a preview of themes likely to shape the 2026 midterm and tonight’s election results.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Poll Results: Tough Numbers for Trump and GOP

[01:39 – 03:01]

• Trump’s Declining Approval:

  • Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 47% (May 2025) to 43%, now more in line with his first-term numbers.
  • Kornacki connects this decline to historic difficulties for the president’s party during midterms, referencing the 2018 “blue wave.”
  • “It’s the poll is a tough one for Trump and for his party... down to 43% from 47%.” — Steve Kornacki [01:49]

• Generic Congressional Ballot:

  • The Democrats now lead by 8 points (50% to 42%) — a significant turn from even polling at the start of the year.
  • Signs point to potential trouble for Republicans in both tonight’s races and looking ahead to 2026.

2. Who Gets the Blame for the Government Shutdown?

[03:01 – 04:08]

• Voters Blame GOP Slightly More:

  • 52% blame Republicans (including Trump) for the “longest government shutdown in U.S. history”; 42% blame Democrats — a margin that pollsters note could shift in future polls.
  • Historical context: Shutdowns often cause temporary polling dips for the GOP, but the long-term effect is uncertain.

• Democrats Face Headwinds Too:

  • Notably, more blame is falling on Democrats than in previous shutdowns, reflecting wider negative sentiment about both parties.

• “Their hope is...that the sentiment against Trump, against his administration’s actions, against Republican rule in Washington is strong enough to override all of that and to carry them to victory in 2026.” — Steve Kornacki [04:08]

3. The Core Dilemma: Who Do Voters Dislike Less?

[04:08 – 05:16]

• Bad Brand for Both Sides:

  • Both parties’ images are underwater—even among their own voters—but Democrats are betting anti-Trump sentiment will save them.
  • “Democrats are essentially hoping that, that voters dislike Republicans and the president more than they dislike them.” — Yasmin Vossoughian [05:08]

• Dem Strategy:

  • Focus voter attention on Trump’s actions and presidency, rather than the party’s own weaknesses.

4. Races to Watch: Virginia and New Jersey

[05:28 – 07:03]

• Both States Tilt Blue:

  • “Democrats are supposed to win both of these, even in sort of a neutral environment.” — Steve Kornacki [05:49]
  • Virginia is seen as a safe Democratic hold; GOP insiders aren’t optimistic.
  • New Jersey is more competitive—Republicans are underdogs but see a real opportunity, especially if national trends break their way.
  • Kornacki signals that a big Democratic win in New Jersey could trigger GOP anxiety about 2026.

• Indicators for 2026:

  • County- and city-level results in both states could preview trends for the next House races.
  • “You can find the places where they’re sort of gonna be key in Jersey and Virginia. And if those areas are going strongly Democratic... there’s gonna be a lot of tea leaf reading there by both parties.” — Steve Kornacki [06:52]

5. Deep-Dive Election Night Preview

[07:03 – 08:26]

• What Kornacki is Watching:

  • Microtrends in specific towns/cities, especially Hispanic-majority areas of New Jersey where Trump previously made huge gains.
  • “We want to see can the Republicans keep that momentum going without Donald Trump being the candidate? Does it all go away? Where does it land?” — Steve Kornacki [07:41]

• Wider Stakes:

  • Results tonight may reveal the national mood at the end of Trump’s first year back in office.
  • California redistricting races could also have major implications for the 2026 House balance.

• Kornacki’s Enthusiasm:

  • “What’s the word that goes above excited?” — Steve Kornacki [08:30]

6. Election Results Coverage Plug

[08:26 – 08:50]

• Yasmin and Steve will be on NBC News live from 11pm–1am covering results and offering analysis.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s the poll is a tough one for Trump and for his party. His approval rating has declined since May.” — Steve Kornacki [01:49]
• “Democrats are essentially hoping that... voters dislike Republicans and the president more than they dislike them.” — Yasmin Vossoughian [05:08]
• “You can find the places where they’re sort of gonna be key in Jersey and Virginia. And if those areas are going strongly Democratic... there’s gonna be a lot of tea leaf reading there by both parties.” — Steve Kornacki [06:52]
• “What’s the word that goes above excited?” — Steve Kornacki [08:30]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Election Day Polling Overview & Trump’s Approval: [01:39 – 03:01]
• Government Shutdown – Who Gets the Blame?: [03:01 – 04:08]
• Democrats’ “Dislike” Gamble: [04:08 – 05:16]
• Statewide Races and Strategic Implications: [05:28 – 07:03]
• Kornacki’s Election Night Outlook: [07:03 – 08:26]
• Plug for NBC News Election Night Coverage: [08:26 – 08:50]

Final Takeaways

• NBC’s polling paints a challenging landscape for Trump and Republicans, with discontent driven by the shutdown and declining approval.
• Both major parties remain widely disliked, and Democrats’ path rests on making the election a referendum on Trump.
• The results in tonight’s key races—especially New Jersey—may offer an early roadmap to the 2026 midterms.
• Kornacki and Vossoughian’s analysis is sharp, candid, and provides listeners with both context and key markers to watch as results come in.