Here's the Scoop (NBC News)

Episode: Looking Ahead to Politics in 2026 with Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles

Date: December 30, 2025
Host: Yasmin Vossoughian
Guests: Steve Kornacki (NBC Chief Data Correspondent), Ryan Nobles (NBC Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)

Episode Overview

In this year-end special, Yasmin Vossoughian is joined by political heavyweights Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles to break down how the seismic political shifts of 2025 are setting the stage for the 2026 midterms. With Republicans holding a governing trifecta and Democrats regrouping after surprising state and local wins, the conversation dives deep into the issues, races, and voter dynamics that will define the next electoral cycle—and what all of it could signal for 2028. Affordability, polarization, redistricting, Donald Trump’s enduring influence, and the high-stakes Senate and House maps take center stage in a rich discussion tailored for political diehards as well as casual listeners looking to understand what's next.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 2025 Political Backdrop

• Republicans hold all levers of government after Trump’s return.
• Early days saw a flurry of executive orders and the controversial Department of Government Efficiency, which triggered mass federal layoffs and the longest government shutdown.
• Cost of living and affordability emerged as top voter concerns, eroding Trump’s approval rating despite his self-described “A+++” economy.
• Democrats found renewed success in key urban and state races, often by campaigning on affordability.

Notable Local Victories:

• NYC elects Zorhamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist, as mayor (02:05).
• NJ Governor-elect Mikey Sherrill declares state of emergency over utility costs.
• Abigail Spamberger becomes first woman governor of Virginia.

2. Why 2026 Matters More Than a “Typical” Midterm

[03:17]

• Kornacki: Each election “poses new questions or clarifies old ones.”
• The midterms will show whether Trump’s expanded base from 2024—especially among Hispanic, young, and nonwhite voters—holds for the GOP, or if Democrats can capitalize on dissatisfaction.

Steve Kornacki (03:36):

“We saw a lot of sort of non-white expansion and youth expansion of the Republican vote in 2024. What’s left of that in 2026?”

3. The Odds of a “Wave” Election and Entrenched Polarization

[04:17–07:38]

• Ryan Nobles questions whether wave elections are even possible now, given entrenched political identities and extreme gerrymandering.
• Historical context: 2018 saw a blue wave with 40-seat Democratic gains. But in 2026, fewer “swing” districts exist—making big swings less likely even with similar performance.

Steve Kornacki (06:14):

“The exact same Democratic performance that you saw in 2018, Trump’s first midterm, if you got that again, would probably net Democrats 15 to 20 seats instead of 40.”

4. Key House and Senate Races to Watch

• House:

  • Michigan’s open Republican-held district in Macomb County as a bellwether (07:44).
  • Western Michigan/Grand Rapids area, where Trumpist and traditional GOP politics collide.

• Senate:

  • Maine: Susan Collins’ uncertain re-election plans.
  • North Carolina: Open seat, with Dems backing Roy Cooper and GOP running Michael Whatley.
  • Georgia: Jon Ossoff’s vulnerable seat, Republicans struggling to find a strong challenger.
  • Texas hype—again sinks into skepticism: “Every midterm, I find myself on a sojourn to Texas with the storyline of this is the year for Democrats, and it never pans out that way.” (13:12)

Ryan Nobles on Democratic strategy (14:53):

“Democrats are going to have a lot of tough decisions to make about what they’re going to do in Texas. The issue for Democratic donors is Texas is such a great fundraising tool... but it never pans out.”

Memorable Anecdote:
Ryan recalls covering Florida’s 2018 Senate race and being asked about Texas’ prospects—even in must-win states, Dems were fixated on Texas (14:35).

5. Redistricting: Can It Reshape 2026?

[14:53–16:59]

• California’s new map likely nets Democrats five seats—but Texas’ GOP map could offset those gains.
• Overall, experts don’t think redistricting will substantively expand the GOP’s cushion:

Kornacki (15:13):

“If Texas and California cancel each other out, Democrats may end up netting a seat or two more out of California than they get out of Texas... Republicans can afford a net loss of two seats, two House seats.”

• Historically, the White House party almost always loses seats; only rare exceptions.

6. Issues Driving the 2026 Midterms

[18:40–21:03]

• Affordability dominates—housing, healthcare, grocery costs.
• Both parties will compete to ‘win’ on cost-of-living issues; Democrats failed to sell “vibes” in 2024 even as metrics improved.
• Mayoral races (NYC, Miami) show energy from Democratic base, whose turnout outpaces the GOP even in minor races.

Kornacki (19:50):

“The Democratic base is just on fire to vote in every and any election... and the question is if that Republican energy is going to kind of come up for 2026.”

7. The Republican Challenge Post-Trump

[21:03–24:37]

• Republicans haven’t built a message or following beyond Trump.
• Ryan’s “Tom Brady Problem” analogy: GOP’s success has been highly contingent on Trump, much like the Patriots relied on their star QB.
• Without Trump, the party struggles to connect with voters; when he’s on the ballot, Republicans do better.

Ryan Nobles (21:03):

"What Republicans have not figured out is how they can take the energy and the political dynamism that Donald Trump has and then transfer it to the other players on the field..."

• Democrats, by contrast, have no problem mobilizing in opposition to Trump.

8. GOP House Leadership & the Future of the Speaker

[25:01–26:48]

• Republican infighting: Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nancy Mace, and others publicly challenge Speaker Mike Johnson.
• Johnson’s future is tied to midterm results; Trump’s support is what keeps him in power.
• A loss could spark “a huge uprising” among Republicans, especially if Trump enters lame-duck status.

Ryan Nobles:

"There’s no one who has more on the line over the next 8 to 10 months than Mike Johnson. His entire political future is riding on this midterm election." (26:36)

9. Legislative Prospects if Republicans Lose Congress

[26:48–28:12]

• Three scenarios: Trump pivots to dealmaking (unlikely), gridlock/constitutional crisis (more likely), or full adversarial war with investigations and possible impeachment hearings (very likely).
• Any Dem win would create a roadblock to Trump’s agenda, which currently proceeds unchecked.

10. Midterms as an Indicator for 2028

[28:12–31:08]

• Mixed historical record: Sometimes midterms foreshadow the next presidential race (2006-08), sometimes not (1994-96).
• 2026 will spotlight rising stars as they help down-ballot candidates.
• 2028 GOP succession: Will Trump anoint a successor (e.g., J.D. Vance), or will we see a competitive primary? GOP Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley are subtly positioning themselves—for a possible post-Trump contest.

Ryan Nobles (30:33):

“My firm belief… is that we are going to see the first legitimate all out open primary on both the Republican and Democratic side… in a really long time.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic “Wins” in 2025:
  Kornacki:

  “We saw a lot of sort of non-white expansion and youth expansion of the Republican vote in 2024. What’s left of that in 2026?” (03:36)

• On the lack of “wave” elections:
  Kornacki:

  “Even if Democrats basically perform the exact same as they did in 2018, there’s going to be less... for them to pick off.” (06:14)

• On Democrats' Texas obsession:
  Nobles:

  "Every midterm, I find myself on a sojourn to Texas with the storyline of 'this is the year for Democrats,' and it never pans out that way." (13:12)

• On the Tom Brady problem:
  Nobles:

  “Right now, Republicans are in kind of the waning stages of the Tom Brady era of the Republican Party and Donald Trump…” (21:03)

• On GOP’s House leadership:
  Nobles:

  "There's no one who has more on the line... than Mike Johnson. His entire political future is riding on this midterm election." (26:36)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Politics of 2025 recap, new Democrat wins: 01:03–03:15
• The significance of 2026 midterms: 03:17–04:17
• The prospects for a “wave” election: 04:17–07:38
• House and Senate battleground races: 07:38–14:53
• Redistricting and its limitations: 14:53–16:59
• Central issues (affordability) for 2026: 18:40–21:03
• GOP’s Trump “Tom Brady problem”: 21:03–24:37
• GOP House turmoil and Speaker Johnson's future: 25:01–26:48
• The outlook if Republicans lose Congress: 26:48–28:12
• What 2026 signals for 2028: 28:12–31:08

Tone and Takeaways

The discussion is rich in data and insight, yet conversational and approachable, combining Kornacki’s exhaustive analytics with Nobles’ Capitol Hill storytelling and strategic color. A persistent thread is the unpredictability of voter mood, the difficulty of shifting entrenched political tides in the modern era, and the huge stakes for both parties as 2026—and 2028—approach.

Useful if you missed the episode:

• Get a detailed lay of the battlegrounds for 2026 (House, Senate, and issues).
• Understand why true "wave" elections are harder but not impossible.
• Recognize key strategic dilemmas for both parties, especially as Trump’s era evolves.
• Hear pointed preview of 2028’s succession drama and the subtle positioning happening now.

Happy New Year from Yasmin Vossoughian and the Here's the Scoop team!