Making sense of the economy’s mixed signals

Summary

Here's the Scoop: Making Sense of the Economy’s Mixed Signals

Podcast: Here's the Scoop
Host: Morgan Chesky
Release Date: July 3, 2025
Duration: 17 minutes

Introduction

In this episode of "Here's the Scoop," hosted by Morgan Chesky of NBC News, the conversation delves into the conflicting indicators shaping the current U.S. economy. From robust job numbers and soaring stock markets to a weakening dollar and looming governmental fiscal challenges, the episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic landscape. Additionally, the podcast touches on significant legislative developments, high-profile legal cases, and noteworthy societal changes, offering listeners a well-rounded view of recent events.

Economic Overview: Mixed Signals

Morgan Chesky opens the discussion by highlighting the complexity of assessing the economy's health. Despite positive indicators such as job growth and stock market performance, underlying issues present a more cautious outlook.

“How is the economy doing? Turns out it's kind of a tough question to answer, but by some measures, the answer is better than expected.” [00:32]

Job Market Resilience and Underlying Concerns

Christine Romans, NBC News senior business correspondent, provides her insights into the latest jobs report, emphasizing both strengths and areas of potential concern.

“This is the little engine that could, the American job market because it just keeps showing up and performing.” [01:52]

Romans notes that while the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June and unemployment slightly decreased, much of this growth stems from state and local government positions rather than the private sector. She expresses apprehension about the sustainability of this trend.

“Under the hood is where I get a little worried. A lot of these jobs created were state and local government. The private sector is showing some signs of weakening a little bit.” [02:06]

Stock Market vs. Main Street

The conversation transitions to the disparity between Wall Street and the broader economy. Despite the S&P 500 reaching record highs, Romans cautions that this might not reflect the actual economic recovery for everyday Americans.

“There's Main Street and there's Wall Street. Right. And Wall Street is doing very well right now...” [03:45]

She attributes the stock market's optimism to factors like anticipated efficiencies from artificial intelligence and expectations that President Trump’s aggressive trade policies won’t fully materialize. However, she warns that this optimism may be premature.

The Declining U.S. Dollar: Implications for Consumers and Global Standing

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the U.S. dollar's performance, which has been its worst start to a year in decades, down by 10% in the first six months.

“The first six months of the year, it was the worst performance for the US dollar since 1973. It's down 10%.” [04:37]

Romans explains the dual impact of a weak dollar: reduced purchasing power for consumers traveling abroad and diminished confidence in the dollar's status as the cornerstone of the global financial system.

“The dollar is the cornerstone of the global financial system. The dollar is the world's safe haven.” [04:50]

She raises concerns that international investors may be diversifying away from the dollar due to perceived instability in U.S. fiscal and trade policies.

President Trump's Tariffs and the Big Beautiful Bill

The episode examines President Trump's imposing tariffs and his substantial domestic spending plan, known as the "big beautiful bill," projected to add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

“President Trump's tariffs and his big beautiful bill projected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office to add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.” [00:32]

Romans discusses the uncertainty these policies bring, highlighting how unpredictability affects both national and global economic stability.

Passing of the Big Beautiful Bill

Later in the episode, Morgan Chesky reports on the passage of President Trump’s significant domestic spending bill after a marathon session in the House of Representatives.

“President Trump's massive domestic spending bill, also known as the big beautiful bill, just passed.” [12:46]

Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles provides details, noting that despite challenges and defections from party lines, the bill secured enough votes to proceed to the President’s desk, signaling a pivotal legislative achievement.

“This bill passes and will soon become law.” [13:19]

The bill encompasses various aspects of Trump's agenda, including tax cuts, immigration enforcement, substantial cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, and a $5 trillion increase in the debt limit.

Supreme Court’s Upcoming Cases on Transgender Athletes

The podcast also touches on the Supreme Court's upcoming term, particularly focusing on cases challenging state laws that ban transgender girls and women from participating in female sports.

“The Supreme Court's fall term includes the legal showdown over transgender athletes in school and college sports.” [13:19]

These cases represent significant societal and legal debates, reflecting broader conversations about gender identity and equality in sports.

The Tragic Death of Soccer Star Diogo Jota

A poignant moment in the episode covers the sudden and tragic death of Portuguese soccer star Diogo Jota.

“Soccer fans worldwide are in mourning today, reeling from the sudden death of 28-year-old forward Diogo Jota...” [14:15]

Jota's impact on both club and national teams is highlighted, commemorating his contributions on the field and his beloved status among fans. His untimely passing in a car crash has left the sports community in shock.

Tennessee’s New Law on Bullying and Cyberbullying

The discussion moves to Tennessee's recently enacted law targeting bullying and cyberbullying among teenagers, allowing judges to revoke driver's licenses as a penalty.

“A new state law lets judges yank your driver's license for up to a year if you're caught bullying or cyberbullying.” [15:00]

While supporters argue it's a necessary step to curb toxic behavior, critics believe the state should focus more on mental health and education rather than punitive measures.

Chuck E. Cheese’s Grown-Up Arcade: Chuck’s Arcade

Concluding the episode on a lighter note, Chesky introduces Chuck E. Cheese’s new venture, "Chuck’s Arcade," aimed at adults seeking nostalgic entertainment.

“Chuck E. Cheese's new grown-up spin-off where you can sip on a beverage while button mashing your way through Donkey Kong, Ms. Pac-Man, and of course a little Mortal Kombat.” [16:07]

This initiative seeks to blend childhood joy with adult leisure, offering a unique social space with classic arcade games, refreshments, and an ambiance tailored for grown-ups.

Closing Remarks

Morgan Chesky wraps up the episode by thanking listeners and acknowledging a heartfelt review from a listener named Debbie from New Jersey, underscoring the podcast’s community engagement.

“Special thanks to Debbie from New Jersey. Your heartfelt review of the pod brought a smile to our entire team.” [17:14]

Conclusion

"Here's the Scoop" provides a thorough examination of the current economic indicators, legislative actions, societal issues, and cultural developments. By featuring expert analysis and timely news updates, the podcast equips listeners with a nuanced understanding of the factors shaping their daily lives. Whether navigating the complexities of the job market, understanding the implications of fiscal policies, or keeping abreast of significant legal and cultural shifts, this episode serves as a valuable resource for staying informed.

Transcript

[McCormick]

McCormack knows unbeatable flavor starts with the right spices. It's why we created Flavour Sealed. So anytime you peel back the seal of McCormick herbs and spices, you can be confident they will pack the same amount of flavor as the day they were packed. The kind of flavor that brings out the best of your favorite recipes and keeps everyone coming back for seconds or maybe even thirds. McCormick flavor sealed for unbeatable flavor.

[Morgan Chesky]

Hey, friends. Morgan Chesky here with here's the scoop from NBC News. There is a lot going on this holiday eve. The world is mourning a soccer star. The house passes the President's big beautiful bill and could Chuck E. Cheese actually be growing up? That's all coming up in a few. But first we gotta dive into our top story today. How is the economy doing? Turns out it's kind of a tough question to answer, but by some measures, the answer is better than expected. The latest jobs report shows that the US added 147,000 jobs in June and unemployment even fell slightly. The stock market also hit record highs this week. But other indicators are painting a rockier picture. The US Dollar is having its worst start to a year in decades and there's still a lot of reason for uncertainty with President Trump's tariffs and his big beautiful bill projected by the non partisan Congressional Budget office to add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. My esteemed colleague, NBC News senior business correspondent Christine Romans is all over this story and she has written three, count them folks, three personal finance books. So I knew she was the right person to help me kind of figure all this out. Hey, Christine, thanks for being here.

[Christine Romans]

Hey there.

[Morgan Chesky]

So you've seen them now. What's your early take on these numbers? Correct me if I'm wrong, better than anticipated, but not a lot of people celebrating.

[Christine Romans]

Yeah, look, this is the little engine that could the American job market because it just keeps showing up and performing. So the headline numbers show resilience. People's paychecks are growing faster than the inflation rate. That's good. That's purchasing power at the kitchen table. We're still creating the same number of jobs kind of on average over the past year. That's all good. But you know, under the hood is where I get a little worried. A lot of these jobs created were state and local government. The private sector is showing some signs of weakening a little bit. But headline good under the hood still watching for uncertainty and how that's gonna play out.

[Morgan Chesky]

Yeah, two things can be true at the same time. And the thousands of people that were laid off in the doge cuts. They're still in a bit of a limbo, right?

[Christine Romans]

Yeah, we saw federal job cuts in this number, but most of those we haven't seen yet. And Morgan, here's why. If you work for the government and you were doged, I guess if we're gonna use that verb, you might still be getting a paycheck. So you're not counted yet in the laid off workers. You're still refle sort of as working. So there's gonna be a lag on those jobs. I'm also watching these healthcare jobs. We had quite a few healthcare jobs across the spectrum. Nursing homes, doctors, nurses, anybody working in the healthcare field. That has been a really important backbone of the economy for a few years. So watching to see what happens with Medicaid funding and if you could see pressure on that part of the economy in the weeks and months ahead. So there's just a lot of stuff that I'm watching very carefully and I.

[Morgan Chesky]

Feel like everything you're watching, Christine, you can look at with a positive outlook and then hedge that almost immediately. Particularly the stock market. S&P 500 been doing quite well lately, some would even say soaring. But does that translate to an economy actually truly recovering?

[Christine Romans]

So there's Main street and there's Wall Street. Right. And Wall street is doing very well right now in part because there was a real freakout in April over the President's trade strategy. In the stock market, the bond market, the dollar, everything went kind of just ha. And then when the President backed off of his Liberation Day tariffs and put this three month pause on. Markets have come right back at record highs, right back where they were when the administration started. So what Wall street is betting on is efficiencies from artificial intelligence. And they're banking on the fact that the President won't carry out the most aggressive of his trade promises. That's where the market could be ahead of itself. It's just no one knows for sure.

[Morgan Chesky]

And regarding the market, Christine, I mean my 401k back to where it should be for the most part. But at the same time, dollar's still pretty weak. How concerned are you on that front?

[Christine Romans]

So people like me, nerdy people like me who cover all these markets, we have been debating why the dollar is weak. It's been the cocktail party conversation in my world. And I'll tell you what I'm hearing. You look at the first six months of the year, it was the worst performance for the US dollar since 1973. It's down 10%. If you're a consumer, you're going to Europe. That means you're going to get less stuff for your dollar. It's going to take more to buy a euro or more to buy a pound. So that's one way the weak dollar matters. But the way that it really matters is the dollar is the cornerstone of the global financial system. The dollar is the world's safe haven. The dollar is the envy of the world. And when it's weakening, it is a question, are international investors thinking that we're less safe and predictable than we used? Investors selling the dollar because they want to diversify to other countries assets because they're concerned about sort of what's happening here. We have an unprecedented unfunded strategy in Washington in the moment. We have an unpredictable trade strategy. We have an assault on the independent Federal Reserve, which is like the shock absorber to the US Economy and to the global economy, if you will. So there's just a lot of stuff that's coming into question about is the US finally at that tipping point where Washington's policies aren't sustainable anymore? We have too much debt and unpredictable policies. And you've got people selling the US Dollar. It's something really to watch. And a lot of people have noticed.

[Morgan Chesky]

So that's certainly the value of the American dollar overseas. But I'm curious, what about the dollars that are in our pockets when we go to the grocery stores? I feel like we were talking about how expensive everything was just a few months ago. I haven't quite felt those prices dropped.

[Christine Romans]

Yeah, Waffle House this week dropped its egg surcharge. Our national nightmare is over. Morgan. The egg surcharge at Waffle House has been dropped. But no, you're right, inflation is a rate and the inflation rate has moderated. But that doesn't mean prices come down. It means they just don't rise as quickly. There's still sticker shock from people when they go to the grocery store. You know what companies are starting to do? They've realized people are so stretched and so shocked by the fact that $200 at the grocery store today doesn't buy what $200 did a couple years ago.

[Morgan Chesky]

Preach.

[Christine Romans]

They're actually making smaller packages so that if you don't want to pay $6 or $7 for a bag of chips, they're going to make sure there's a $2 bag of chips. It's got less stuff in it. Right. But at least you can buy the chips smaller package and then still keep your food budget the way you want it to be. Another thing that's happening is because of tariffs, companies are trying to figure out how to not pass on higher costs any way they can. I think you're going to start to free overnight shipping. That's gonna be harder to get. Return policies will be a little tougher. Companies are gonna try to make up money in other ways.

[Morgan Chesky]

Yeah. Christine, you mentioned the tariffs. That's probably one of the looming questions hanging over all of this as the trickle down could impact everyone. Tariffs set to take effect next week. However, the Trump administration says, you know, don't take that deadline as literally as they have it. How could the tariffs shift more or less the landscape here?

[Christine Romans]

I know. I mean, that July 9th deadline, Morgan, is about as soft as an ice cream cone in a New York street right now. You know, I mean, it is just soft and I'm not sure. I mean, he could, he's unpredictable, the President is. And that's part of his negotiating strategy. His supporters say maybe all of a sudden a bunch of tariffs snap back on on July 9th. Maybe as the Treasury Secretary has intimated, it could be something like September. The fact is, we don't know. So you're Morgan Chesky Inc. You are, you're a very successful company and you don't know. You import widgets from Vietnam, some from the EU oh, by the way, you export a few things to Canada and you don't know what the prices are going to be at the border on July 10th. So do you hire a bunch of people right now, Morgan Chesky, Inc. Do you just stay where you are? Do you try to find new places to get those things? Do you see how not knowing is so hard for a company?

[Morgan Chesky]

Sitting on their hands, I feel like is what everyone's doing to some degree, right?

[Christine Romans]

Yeah, it's true. And I've talked to dozens of business owners who are trying to game out what things look like in September because guess what, if you're doing any kind of holiday planning, you know, you've got orders that have to be in now, right now, and that are gonna be taking delivery September, October to be put in warehouses for November, to be sold off shelves in December. So this is really crunch time. And I think the average person probably isn't like, oh, I've seen terrorists everywh. They're still like, wait, you keep telling me tariffs are coming, but I haven't seen it yet. We're almost there, Morgan. I mean, now is crunch time. And I think you'll start to see.

[Morgan Chesky]

This in the data for the consumer out there for anyone out there, can you even sum up how they should feel in a sentence? Or is everything just too unpredictable at this point?

[Christine Romans]

I think that in the midst of unpredictability, it is never, ever a bad idea to make sure that you know how much money is coming into your budget, how much money is going out. Are you saving enough for retirement? Have you started Morgan Chesky at 529 for your child? Get your ducks in a row. Every dollar you save and invest is totally worth it. 10 years out, 20 years out. And so you should be doing that as much as you can. I hope that people don't look at the uncertainty and the drama in trade, in spending and they think, oh, I'm just gonna, I'm gonna sit on my hands. I'm not gonna invest. I'm scared. Everyone should be investing now for the future more than ever because you never bet against the American economy.

[Morgan Chesky]

Christine Romance, thanks so much.

[Christine Romans]

You're welcome.

[Morgan Chesky]

Okay, time for a quick break now, but when we're back, we'll dive into some headlines. Stick around.

[Al Roker]

Hey, everybody. I'm Al Roker from the Today show. Here to tell you about our Jumpstart July event. The Start Today app has everything you need to get and stay motivated on your wellness journey all in one place, like walking challenges for all levels to get you moving. Healthy recipes that are easy and delicious and so much more. And now when you subscribe for an annual plan, you'll get your first month completely free with promo code Jumpstart. Just download the Start Today app now to get started.

[N/A]

Offer in 73125 must enter code at checkout, must be 18 or up. After first month, you will be automatically charged $65.99 a year plus tax for an annual subscription until you cancel. Cancel anytime through your dev settings under Apple account C website for full terms.

[Tom Yamas]

Taking over the helm of NBC Nightly News, a 75 year old broadcast, it's a great responsibility.

[Morgan Chesky]

Good evening.

[Tom Yamas]

I'm Tom Yamas. You have to go out there to bring people at home closer to the store. Wildfires continue to be a threat. With that massive hurricane comes the massive response. The best reporters in our business know how to listen. And when you listen, you get the.

[Morgan Chesky]

Truth For NBC News.

[Tom Yamas]

For NBC News. For NBC News, I'm Tom Gamlas for that's what we do every night, NBC.

[Morgan Chesky]

Nightly News with Tom Yamas, evenings on NBC. And we're back with here's the scoop. Time now to go from the dollar bill to Capitol Hill. How did destiny's child put it bills, bills, bills. Can the government pass their bill? Well, evidently, yes. After members of the House pulled an all nighter, literally. President Trump's massive domestic spending bill, also known as the big beautiful bill, just passed 2:18, 2:14. Talk about a squeaker. Two Republicans broke ranks and joined the Democrats to vote no. The bill's now headed to the president's desk. And there have been some fast moving developments since we broke down the BBB earlier this week. So we decided to phone a friend. NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles. What? Doesn't everyone have a buddy working on the Hill? Anyway, I wanted his reaction to what went down.

[Ryan Nobles]

Hey, Morgan. Yep, it's a done deal here on Capitol Hill. The House of Representatives finally passing the big Trump mega bill filled with his legislative priorities. They're going to have a signing ceremony tomorrow at the White House, complete with a B2 bomber flyover and fireworks. This wasn't easy. A number of hardline conservatives needed to be convinced by the president himself to get it done. And Democrats took to the floor and Hakeem Jeffries giving the longest floor speech in House of Representatives history to dry and delay the final vote. It wasn't enough, though. This bill passes and will soon become law. Morgan.

[Morgan Chesky]

And in case you forgot, this bill is going to fund many pillars of President Trump's agenda, everything from tax cuts to immigration enforcement. And it's also going to make significant cuts to Medicaid and food stamps and raise the debt limit by $5 trillion. The new list of cases is out for the Supreme Court's fall term. And on the list, the legal showdown over transgender athletes in school and college sports. The justices will challenges to laws in West Virginia and Idaho that ban transgender girls and women from competing in female sports. More than half the country has already passed similar laws, but until now, the courts have not made a definitive nationwide ruling. Soccer fans worldwide are in mourning today, reeling from the sudden death of 28 year old forward Diogo Jota, who was killed in a car crash in Spain alongside his brother. Jata wasn't just a goal scorer. This guy was an absolute game changer. He helped power Liverpool to the latest Premier League title and was also a star on the Portuguese national team. His success on the pitch made him a fan favorite, even earning him his own song from the Liverpool fans. Jota was the kind of player who made defenders panic and fans believe off the field he'd just married his longtime partner and was a proud dad of three. Liverpool's manager called him the heartbeat of the team and Portuguese teammate Cristiano Ronaldo posted. It doesn't make any sense. And a sport full of stars Jata burned especially bright. A heads up now for any teenager in Tennessee. Enough with the law and order. But seriously, if you bully someone, you could find yourself walking to school. A new state law lets judges yank your driver's license for up to a year if you're caught bullying or cyberbullying. First time offenders might squeak by with a restricted license, but the message here is pretty clear. Harassment now hits teens where it really hurts your freedom and your wheels. The law, which kicked in earlier this week, is a bipartisan effort to try to clamp down on toxic behavior. Critics don't think the state should be playing traffic cop, but focusing more on mental health and education. Supporters, though, say it's a modern fix for a modern problem. Alright, before we go, Chuck E. Cheese. Yeah, the same place as your third grade birthday party might be finally giving us grown ups what we all really want. An arcade, of course, for our inner child.

[Al Roker]

Chuck E. Cheese's where a kid can be a kid.

[Morgan Chesky]

Yeah, meet Chuck's Arcade. The chain's new grown up spin off where you can sip on a beverage while button mashing your way through Donkey Kong, Ms. Pac man, and of course a little Mortal Kombat. 10 locations, believe it or not, are popping up in malls across eight states, complete with the classic prizes that mood lighting and pizza that tastes better. So I'm told with wine goggles, Think Dave and Buster's, but with animatronics silently judging your skeeball game. The vibe, little childhood joy, adult beverages and just enough chaos to make you forget your 401k. Hey, we can only hope that's gonna do it for us at here's the scoop. Thanks for hanging out with us. And special thanks to Debbie from New Jersey. Your heartfelt review of the pod brought a smile to our entire team. Appreciate you signing off. I'm Morgan Chesky.

[N/A]

The hit podcast Dateline Missing in America is back with a new season and more unsolved missing person cases that you might be able to help solved.

[Morgan Chesky]

Monday, May 17, Tiffany Reed set out on foot for Shiprock Northwest High School in New Mexico. Except that day, Tiffany never made it home. That was 21 years ago.

[Christine Romans]

I'm gonna hang on to that hope that she's still alive. I just want to know where she is.

[N/A]

Listen now to Dateline Missing in America. And maybe you could be the key to solving her case. Available now wherever you get your podcasts.