Here's the Scoop (NBC News)

Episode Summary: "N.J. Primary Pushes Dems Left and Super Bowl Prediction Betting"

Date: February 6, 2026
Host: Yasmin Vossoughian

Overview

This episode dives into two major stories:

• The unexpectedly progressive turn in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary—a race labeled a "political earthquake" by NBC data analyst Steve Kornacki
• The rapid rise of online prediction markets allowing Americans to wager on the Super Bowl (and much more), even in states where traditional sports betting apps are banned

Additional headlines include international diplomacy updates, a major arrest in the Benghazi investigation, and coverage from the Winter Olympics in Milan, Italy.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. New Jersey Democratic Primary: A Political Earthquake

Segment Start: 00:03

Guests:

• Steve Kornacki, NBC News data analyst

The Race in N.J.'s 11th District

• Analia Mejia, leading the tight primary, is backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC. She represents the party’s left flank and comes from an activist background.
• Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties (near NYC) make up the district.

Shifting Powers in New Jersey

• The “machine” politics of traditional county-party control have faded, especially since a recent court ruling removed the "county line" advantage on ballots.

• Grassroots, progressive challengers like Mejia are now viable:

  “This is the kind of candidacy that just five years ago would have been dead on arrival in New Jersey.” (Steve Kornacki, 02:42)

• County-party-backed candidate Brendan Gill is running a distant third, and Mejia is winning even in party strongholds.

National Ramifications

• The race reflects the growing openness of the Democratic base to leftist politics since the Trump era:

  “There’s a larger chunk of Democratic voters … more open to left, leftish politics than I think people thought before.” (Steve Kornacki, 01:57)

• New Jersey, previously considered reliably blue, looked shaky in the 2024 election (Trump narrowed margins significantly), but Democrats rebounded with a landslide in the 2025 governor's race.

The Republican Perspective

• April general election—a Republican, the mayor of a Morris county town, will face Mejia.
• The district recently favored Democrats by 9–15 points, but a far-left nominee could test those margins. Kornacki frames the stakes:

  “If Mejia ends up underperforming and this is a squeaker... it’s gonna say that [Democrats] really did pay a political [price] far to the left with their candidate. But if she wins, if she overperforms... that’s going to send a signal... that there’s more room to run on the left.” (Steve Kornacki, 06:33)

2028 and the National Stage

• Kornacki wonders if this pattern portends the rise of an AOC-style presidential campaign:

  “If that can happen in New Jersey… it could probably happen almost anywhere.” (Steve Kornacki, 07:41)

2. Super Bowl Prediction Markets: Betting Without the "Sportsbook"

Segment Start: 11:02

Guest:

• Ali Kanal, NBC News business reporter

Explosion in Super Bowl Betting

• A record $1.76 billion expected to be wagered, even as states like California ban sports betting apps (FanDuel, DraftKings, etc.)

What Are Prediction Markets?

• Platforms where users buy/sell contracts on event outcomes—sports, elections, pop culture—not classic “bets.”

• No sportsbook or house; users trade against each other.

  “There’s no house… users are trading against each other, and the platform makes money by charging small transaction fees.” (Ali Kanal, 12:21)

• Loophole: These are federally regulated as “financial markets,” not gambling, and thus sidestep state bans.

Differences from Sportsbooks

• Menus are smaller (fewer “player props” and novelty bets).

• Payouts are similar:

  “Last I checked, the payout for both of these was pretty much exactly the same.” (Ali Kanal, 15:30)

• Some states (Massachusetts, Nevada, New York) have launched legal challenges, arguing these markets are “sportsbooks in disguise.”

Industry Growth

• Kalshi, a leading platform, noted $170 million in Super Bowl trading volume—6x last year’s total.

Impact & Risks

• Prediction markets are expanding beyond sports: e.g., election results, Netflix price increases ("anything that becomes part of the water cooler conversation").

  “It is also just an interesting way to see what people are talking about... that’s probably going to pop up on these prediction sites.” (Ali Kanal, 19:09)

• Desensitization to financial risk is a concern, and unlike sports betting apps, consumers may lack regulatory protections.

• For this year’s Super Bowl, the “market” favored the Seahawks over the Patriots:

  “People think the Seahawks. They think the Seahawks have this year.” (Ali Kanal, 20:06)

3. Olympic Opening: Milan, Italy

Segment Start: 22:27

Reporter:

• Stephanie Gosk, NBC News correspondent

• Team USA leads in figure skating after day one; Madison Chock and Evan Bates (married ice dancers) are star performers.

• Lindsey Vonn finished an Olympic training run in 11th place despite rupturing her left ACL the previous week; her coach reports she’s feeling good:

  “Her coach said that it feels strong and she’s feeling good.” (Stephanie Gosk, 26:38)

• The women’s downhill race is upcoming.

4. Additional Headlines

Segment Start: 22:27

• Iran–U.S. Nuclear Talks: First face-to-face negotiations post-summer war; U.S. military buildup and Trump’s threats underline the stakes.
• Benghazi Arrest: Zubar El Bakosh, linked to the 2012 attacks, faces eight federal charges.
• Election Security: FBI and DOJ increasing midterm election prep; Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s office examined Puerto Rico voting machines.
• Bitcoin Volatility: Massive swings; fell from $126,000 in October to below $61,000, recovered to $70,000 briefly.
• Winter Olympics: Opening ceremonies feature Mariah Carey; Olympic torch lit in both Milan and Cortina.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Kornacki, on grassroots momentum:
  “This is the kind of candidacy that just five years ago would have been dead on arrival in New Jersey.” (02:42)

• Steve Kornacki, on the leftward shift’s national implications:
  “If that can happen in New Jersey… it could probably happen almost anywhere.” (07:41)

• Ali Kanal, on the nature of prediction markets:
  “There’s no house… users are trading against each other, and the platform makes money by charging small transaction fees.” (12:21)

• Ali Kanal, on market growth:
  “Trading volume tied to the upcoming game… already topped $170 million. That’s more than six times what the company saw around last year’s championship game.” (17:43)

• Stephanie Gosk, on Lindsey Vonn’s resilience:
  “Her coach said that it feels strong and she’s feeling good.” (26:38)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• N.J. Democratic Primary Analysis: 00:03–08:15
• Super Bowl Prediction Markets and Betting: 11:02–20:12
• Olympics and Headlines (Milan report, other news): 22:27–27:27

Episode Tone

The discussion is brisk, insightful, and accessible—balancing detailed political and business analysis with a conversational, “news-you-need-to-know” approach that characterizes Yasmin Vossoughian’s hosting style.

Summary Takeaway

This episode of “Here’s the Scoop” delivers sharp analysis on a leftward political shift in New Jersey that could foreshadow broader Democratic Party trends, and examines how online prediction markets are drying the boundaries between finance and gambling just in time for the Super Bowl. Add Olympic highlights and top headlines, and the episode lives up to its promise to keep listeners informed, conversationally and comprehensively, about what matters now.