B (2:42)

Yeah, I mean, a whole bunch of things look she would have been seen for. I mean, you could look at this two ways. First of all, the way things have typically worked in New Jersey, and I mean this, this extends to the very, very recent, I mean, like, you know, three, four years in the past. The way things have worked in New Jersey Democratic politics is that the county political organ back candidates, they endorse them, they fund them, they have massive turnout armies for them. And historically they've been able to give them, they've been able to play with the primary ballots and give their preferred candidates, you know, a spot on the primary ballot that looks, it's impossible to miss. It looks extremely official. It looks different than all the other candidates called the line. That's, that's what it was known as. This got thrown out in court like two years ago because of this sort of grassroots revolt that's been taking place in New Jersey. And so this race in some ways was attacked the test of what can those county parties do without that power anymore. And so the county, the biggest county party in this district, Essex county, endorsed a candidate who I think in the past would have easily won because of that endorsement. Instead, he's running a very distant third in this race. Brendan Gill is his name. And Mejia is actually winning in Essex county and she's actually leading district wide. You know, if you get outside of Essex County. You mentioned Morris County. Morris county historically was suburban Republican leaning in the Trump era. It's begun moving towards the Democrats and he is doing very well in Morris county as well.

A (4:08)

This was a Democratic primary, as you mentioned, and New Jersey has traditionally been a reliably blue state. Steve, is that still true or are things shifting?

B (4:19)

Well, I think people were wondering after the 2024 election, you know, where New Jersey was going, because Donald Trump had made big, big strides there. He'd been blown out in 2020 by 16 points in New Jersey. He brought that inside of six points in 2024. Significant new non white support for him was a big reason why. And so I think a lot of folks then were saying, you know, hey, is New Jersey trending in this purple direction then look what happened though, in 2025 in the governor's race. You know, Trump comes back to the presidency. You got this off year election at the end of his first year back. And Cheryl didn't just win, she won an absolute. Yeah, Landslide here basically clawed back everything that the Democrats had lost in 2024. And so I think, you know, part of what that's done is that's. I think it's got Democrats thinking, you know, if they were in a bit of a defensive crouch coming out of 2024, I think they're thinking much more offensively, much more confidently, much more aggressively. You know, now as 2026 plays out.

A (5:15)

You know, you say Democrats are coming at this more confidently and more offensively, though I imagine Republicans still feel as if the state could be feasibly up for grabs. What does this mean for the Republicans going forward?

B (5:25)

So this sets up a really interesting test because April will be the general election. For this special election, the Republicans have nominated a candidate who's the mayor of a suburban town out in Morris county, and on paper, I think is a potentially appealing candidate. Now, the district itself voted for Kamala Harris by nine points in 2024. It voted for Cheryl in the governor's race last year by 15 points. And I think you've been talking about this, We've been talking about this in all these special elections we've been seeing nationally in Trump's second term, the Democrats have been doing, you know, leaps and bounds better than Harris did in these different districts. So you line those things up. Where this district is, what we're seeing in that Democratic overperformance nationally. This should be a pretty easy win in April for the Democrats in the general election, in the special election. But they are putting up a candidate here who is as far left as they could possibly put up. And there is terrain in this district, and again before Donald Trump especially, that Morris county part of this district was very Republican friendly. So this is an interesting test.

A (6:30)

Potentially saying this could be a risk for them to assert.

B (6:33)

Well, I think it's gonna, I think it's gonna tell us something either way because if this race, you know, if, if Mejia ends up underperforming and this is a squeaker right in this, in this special election in April, it's gonna say that the, wow, the Democrats really did pay a political far to the left with their candidate. But if not, you know, if she wins, if she overperforms, just like we've seen Democrats over perform in all these other special elections. Yeah, I think that's, again, that's going to send a signal to other candidates like her and to the rest of the party that, you know, there's more room to run on the left than, than I think people had, had thought, you know, and have Been thinking where my mind goes with this, you know, is longer term, is bigger picture, is 2028 and is the question of AOC Alexandria Ocasio COR. It suggests to me if that can happen in New Jersey, if that can happen in this part of New Jersey, the most historically machine friendly part of New Jersey, it could probably happen almost anywhere. And so I start to wonder about a candidate like AOC who very much would be powered by the same message, you know, the same energy, trying to tap into very similar voters. I've kind of looked at AOC as a national candidate and said to myself that maybe she would be kind of a factional candidate if she runs in the Democratic side. She would have her supporters, she would have hardcore supporters, but there'd be a president for president.

A (7:56)

Wow.

B (7:57)

You know, wow. Where, you know, how much room would she or the candidate would she have to run as a candidate? Would she have more room than we, than we are currently thinking she would have if she were to run, especially in a crowded primary, which again, this was in New Jersey, hence why Steve.

A (8:15)

Called it a political earthquake. Steve Kordaki, who is coming to us from the super bowl because he's going to be live on Sunday. I mean, the luckiest guy in the world. What can we expect on Sunday, Steve? Who's going to win it?

B (8:30)

This is where my head and my heart say totally different things. I mean, my head says the Seahawks are just too much, but I'm from Massachusetts. I'm a Patriots guy. I know the whole country hates us, so I'll go with my heart. I'll say the Pats. I'll say the Pats find a way. And the whole country rolls their eyes and groans.

A (8:47)

But your statistical self says the Seahawks.

B (8:51)

My statistical self says the Pats have had a very easy schedule. They haven't faced something like this.

A (8:56)

We're all going to be watching. Steve Kornacki, thank you.

B (8:59)

You got it. Yes.

A (9:02)

Steve is not the only one making super bowl predictions. In fact, it is a billion dollar business and market, even in states where sports betting is illegal. After the break, we are explaining prediction markets. And hey, while you're waiting, I would love for you to go ahead and subscribe to Here's a scoop wherever you're listening. That way, the latest episode will be in your feed as soon as it drops.

C (9:28)

Stay informed with the NBC News app.

B (9:30)

Breaking news just coming in moments ago.

C (9:32)

Watch, read and listen throughout your day. And now unlock even more with a subscription. It's the best of NBC News with fewer ad interruptions. Including ad free articles, podcasts, and full NBC News shows, plus deeper access and exclusive content. Let's just take a step back. It's more context and clarity from the reporters you trust. Download the NBC News app now and subscribe for more.

B (9:58)

Hey guys, Willie Geist here reminding you to check out the Sunday Sit down podcast. On this week's episode, I get together with country music superstar Luke Combs for a special Sunday Sit Down Live. It was a great night with our viewers in the room as Luke and I talked through his extraordinary rise from college bars to sold out stadiums. You can get our conversation for free wherever you download your podcasts.

A (10:27)

Hey everybody, it's Kate Snow. I'm an NBC News anchor and host of the new podcast the Drink with Kate Snow. So here's the deal. I sit down with all kinds of celebrities, actors, musicians, athletes for a casual conversation over a drink of their choice. It's always about their journey, the successes, the struggles, the lessons they learned. I thought I knew all about self help superstar Mel Robbins, but in our candid conversation, she got really honest about a business decision that almost bankrupted her and how she was able to pull herself out and then build an empire. Trust me, you're going to learn something.

C (11:02)

I always do.

A (11:04)

I hope you'll listen. Just search for the Drink with Kate Snow wherever you get your podcasts and follow now. And we are back with here's the scoop from NBC News. The New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks are getting ready for Sunday's super bowl game in sunny California. And so, by the way, are the fans who are putting big money on their favorite teams and a heck of a lot more. The American Gaming association estimates Americans are going to wager a record $1.76 billion on the super bowl through legal sportsbooks. That is despite the fact that sports betting apps like FanDuel and DraftKings are illegal in California and some other states as well. But fans in those states, they can still participate in prediction markets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket where users trade game outcomes like stocks. They are a regulatory workaround that has become a full blown phenomenon. I want to bring in NBC News business reporter Ali Kanal, who's on this for us. Hi Ali.

C (12:07)

Hi Yasmin. Thanks for having me.

A (12:09)

It's great to have you. So obviously ahead of super bowl weekend, a lot of money is flying around and that's why I wanted to talk to you about this. Let's start though with the ABCs of it all, which is what are prediction markets and how do they Work?

C (12:21)

Yeah, it can be a little bit confusing. I think the easiest way to think about a prediction market is it's essentially a cross between a sort of stock market market like exchange, and a betting platform. So instead of placing a bet with a casino, people are buying and selling contracts tied to real world outcomes that could be the outcome of a game, a political election, some sort of pop culture event. So the big distinction here, at least legally, is that there's no sportsbook setting the odds. There is no house, users are trading against each other, and the platform makes money by charging small transaction fees. So that's why a lot of these companies say that they are financial markets. They are regulated at the federal level, not the state level. And that's the most important thing here. They don't have to abide by state by state gambling laws. But from a user's perspective, it often feels a lot like gambling. So that's why prediction markets in general are getting a lot more attention, especially on the side of regulators.

A (13:19)

So I want to dive a little bit deeper there into the kind of differentiation between the prediction markets and sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings. Walk us through the exact differences there. And are you making similar bets as you would on those types of platforms?

C (13:35)

Yeah, that's really a yes and no answer. You can still trade on some of those familiar things like who will win the game. But there are even those novelty market prop bets, sort of things like the coin toss, the length of the national anthem, what color the Gatorade bath is going to be, which I tend to always get wrong every year. But. But the prediction markets are a little bit more limited than the sports book. So I speak with a trader who is based in California where sports betting is illegal. He uses a lot of these prediction market apps. He did tell me that, look, it's sports gambling. There's no need to beat around the bush. That's what it is. However, it is this loophole, this workaround for bettors located in these states where gambling is illegal, that they can get around these things. He did tell me though, that the menus are a lot smaller, so fewer player props, fewer niche bets, especially compared to those states where sports betting is fully legal. You brought up DraftKings, FanDuel. It's really interesting to look at a company like DraftKings because they're straddling both sides of the aisle here. They operate that traditional sportsbook, but they recently launched DraftKings predictions. So this is their prediction market layer and arm to their company. And they launched this in December. And basically they told me that this is another way for bettors to access this regulated type of betting. It's under that federal law. It's not operated by the states. No one is being forced to do this. But even these traditional sports books are getting involved and it's a way for them to, to reach these markets and reach these audiences that they otherwise would not be able to.

A (15:09)

So let's talk real, real case scenarios, right? If I'm going to place $100 bet, I have a hundred bucks to play with when it comes to the super bowl. And I say, okay, the don't kill me, New England Patriots are going to win this thing and you place it on a prediction market and. Or you place it on a sports book like FanDuel. What is the difference there?

C (15:30)

Last I checked, the payout for both of these was pretty much exactly the same. So for a contract, it pays out $1 if you're right, and the price moves based on how likely people think that outcome is. So the more people that think the Seahawks is going to win, that will affect the wager. But like I said, if you're a better in one of these states like California or Texas, where sports gambling is illegal, you can essentially still pocket the same winnings as other users that are going that traditional route through the sports books. But that's why you're seeing a lot more states come out against these prediction markets. We have states like Massachusetts and Nevada that basically are arguing these platforms are just sports books in disguise and some have moved to shut them down. There's been lawsuits, there's been cease and desist. We just heard from the New York's Attorney General earlier this week warning that consumers who use these prediction markets may not have the same protections as traditional gambling. And we're still very much in the early innings here when it comes to the future of these markets. So I expect to see a lot more activity in the courts as we continue to see how this all plays out. And probably a lot more pressure on states to define what these prediction markets really are in the context of their constituents and really how folks are actively engaging and using these apps.

A (16:49)

So the prediction markets, if I'm hearing you correctly, in a way, is more sophisticated betting, but also more black and white than you would find, for instance, in the sports book or in prop bets.

C (16:59)

That's the goal. And that's what these prediction markets, that's the messaging that they're pushing. And you have regulators on both sides that are questioning whether or not this is Wading too much into gambling territory. The prediction sites consistently maintain they've released multiple statements saying, we are not gambling. It's event based contracts. There's no house. We're not kind of profiting off of your losses. And even from a moral standpoint, when I spoke with some of these traders, they tell me they feel better participating in these types of markets knowing that they're not losing to a house, they're losing to the actual winner. So even on a psychological level, I think this is influencing people's decisions.

A (17:41)

How big is this market overall?

C (17:43)

Yeah, and I just spoke with Kelsey this morning. It's Friday, two days before the Super Bowl. They told me that trading volume tied to the upcoming game between Seattle and New England, it's already topped $170 million. That's more than six times what the company saw around last year's championship game. And they attribute that number to the rise of these types of markets and the popularity. Remember, Kalshi was only launched in July of 2021. It is still a new product here. So you can only imagine the type of growth that we're going to continue to see.

A (18:16)

Well, that being said, how is this kind of changing the world when it comes to gambling and the way in which people wager?

C (18:22)

I think it's maybe making people a little more desensitized to the potential risks of losing money. Even talking to these companies, they say no one's forcing people to participate in these markets. But I do think it's important for folks to understand the risk because there is still serious money that's being won and lost on these prediction markets. These traders emphasize the fact that they are really researching the contracts that they are trading. They want to make sure that they are well aware because they say the payout is actually easier through these prediction markets than on the sports books. But only if you know what you're betting on and really how these markets work.

A (19:00)

I also think it's important to stress we're talking about this surrounding the super bowl, surrounding sports betting, obviously with these prediction markets. But you could literally bet on anything.

C (19:09)

Yeah, I mean, for the super bowl and solves, I mentioned some of those prop bets. There's a lot of bets surrounding the commercials along with the halftime shows, the performers, all those curious things that you think about for the super bowl you can probably find on these prediction sites. And then outside of sports, another thing I saw was whether Netflix will raise prices. Right. These are things that affect folks everyday lives. So if you're curious about it, if you're thinking about it. If it's part of that water cooler conversation, likely there is a way to bet on that outcome. And even the elections locally and nationally, all of those things are available. So it is also just an interesting way to see what people are talking about, what people are interested in, because that's probably going to pop up on these prediction sites.

A (20:01)

Where's more the wager on in these prediction markets? Is it more for the Seattle Seahawks or for the New England Patriots?

C (20:06)

People think the Seahawks. They think the Seahawks have this year.

A (20:09)

So we'll see Ally Canal. Thank you.

C (20:12)

Thank you.

A (20:15)

We're going to take a very quick break and when we are back, we are heading to Italy to hear more about how Lindsay Vaughn did on her downhill run and the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Olympics. Stay with us for the headlines. Hey girl. What's happen?

C (20:33)

Is that your antiperspirant?

B (20:36)

Yeah.

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It's native.

B (21:01)

Team USA takes the gold. Let's go.

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I wish I could play hockey like that.

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C (22:01)

This week on Meet the Press.

B (22:03)

As Minnesota remains on edge and the DOJ releases more Epstein files. Kristen Welker sits down with speaker Mike Johnson and Congressman Ro Khanna. Plus a Meet the Moment conversation with filmmaker Ken Burns. This week on Meet the Press. Listen to the full episode now, wherever you get your podcasts.

A (22:27)

And we're back with here's the scoop from NBC News News. Let's get to some headlines. Iran's foreign minister says talks with the United States and Oman were actually a good start. They are the first face to face negotiations between the United States and Iran since the 12 day war last summer, and they focus mainly on Iran's nuclear ambitions. The talks are taking place amidst this US Military buildup in the Persian Gulf and with President Trump threatening military action if the two sides cannot come to a deal. Officials from both the United States and Iran said they're expecting to continue these discussions in the coming days. The DOJ arrested a key participant in the 2012 attack on a US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya. Attorney General Pam Bondi says Zubar El Bakosh landed at Joint base Andrews at 3am and now faces eight counts in federal court, including for the murders of US Ambassador Chris Stevens and State Department employee Sean Smith at the time of the Benghazi attack. Republicans criticized the Obama administration's response, including then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. House Republicans launched six different investigations that spanned two years. The FBI invited state election officials to discuss preparations for the upcoming midterm elections after a tense gathering in Washington last week. The Justice Department did not immediately respond to NBC News request for more information regarding the aims or the purposes of this call. But it's coming on the heels of the president suggesting that Republicans nationalize elections in some areas. As a reminder, the US Constitution gives states the power to administer their own elections, though Congress can also set some regulations. We have also learned that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, overseen by Tulsi Gabbard, obtained and examined electronic voting machines in Puerto Rico last year. Gabbard's office says they were looking for possible security vulnerabilities. The president has falsely claimed that he lost the 2020 election because it was rigged against him and has said that investigations will verify his claims. Bitcoin recovered some ground during trading on Friday after a nosedive earlier this week. The cryptocurrency was trading below $61,000 on Thursday, a more than 50% slide from its record high of 126,000 back in October. The sell off coincided with investors pulling back from risky assets like crypto and tech stocks. Instead, they've been putting their money in safe havens like gold. But as investors bought the dip on Friday, bitcoin briefly broke above $70,000. The move is underscoring just how volatile cryptocurrencies can be when investors are turning away from risk. And finally, That is the icon Mariah Carey at today's opening ceremonies for the 2026 Winter Olympics, the Games are officially a go. And for the first time ever, Olympic cauldrons are now lit in two cities, Milan and Cortina, all throughout the Games. We're going to be bringing you an Olympic minute on the podcast so you can stay up to date on the medal count and follow all of the key stories. So starting us out is NBC News correspondent Stephanie Gosk joining us from Milan. Today we saw figure skaters take to the ice in the team competition. There are eight sessions in the team competition and the winner is decided by the combination of the scores. And after day one, Team USA is in first place in no small part.

C (26:01)

Because of Madison Chalk and Evan Bass.

A (26:03)

They are the ice dancing pair. They are also married. They are the favorites for the gold medal. They have already won a gold medal in the team competition in Beijing. They're the only ones who are returning from that team. But Team USA is going to have some tough competition from Japan. The other thing we ought to talk.

C (26:19)

About today is Lindsey Vonn. She had a training run.

A (26:22)

And why is that so important?

C (26:23)

Well, she told us she ruptured her.

A (26:26)

Left ACL in that crash in Switzerland last week and that she needed a training run to see if her knee was still stable. And at the end of the training run, she was in 11th place. But her coach said that it feels.

C (26:38)

Strong and she's feeling good.

A (26:40)

And that downhill race for the women will be on Sunday. So lots happening here in Milan and the official kickoff happening today. Lindsey Vonn, I am rooting for you every step of the way and all those American athletes as well. Go, Team usa. Stephanie Gosk, thank you. And by the way, if you missed the opening ceremonies this afternoon, do not worry. You can catch the encore tonight at 8:00 Eastern on NBC. All right, that is going to do it for us at here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugin. We will be back Monday with whatever the weekend may bring. And if you like what you heard, subscribe. Wherever you get your podcasts. We'll see you Monday.

C (27:27)

What are you doing in a meeting?

A (27:28)

That could have been an email. Losing interest.

C (27:30)

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