"Here’s the Scoop" – Special Election Night Episode
Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Yasmin Vasugian, Alan Smith, Steve Kornacki, Mel Zanona
Podcast: Here’s the Scoop, NBC News
Overview: The Pulse of Off-Year Election Night
This special episode takes listeners inside the NBC News election night coverage, unpacking results from crucial races and ballot measures in Virginia, New Jersey, California, and New York City. It’s the first major national test after Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term, making it a critical snapshot of current political momentum, voter motivation, and party strategy heading toward the 2026 midterms. The episode brings together NBC’s political team—including Steve Kornacki at the data board—to break down not just the numbers, but the stories they tell about party fortunes, the “Trump Factor,” redistricting, progressive victories, and the government shutdown’s fallout.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Democrats' "Surprisingly Sweeping" Night
(02:16–03:47)
- Alan Smith and Steve Kornacki highlighted the scale of the Democratic victories, specifically in:
- Virginia: Abigail Spanberger wins the governorship by 13–14 points, far exceeding expectations.
- New Jersey: Mikie Sherrill secures an unexpectedly large victory (~13 points) over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, despite criticisms of her campaign.
Steve Kornacki (03:13):
"To me, there's no avoiding it in these results. The Trump factor—I think there was just a combination here of voters who were already dug in against Trump... and then voters, I think, reacting, you know, to a president who had a low 40s approval rating in New Jersey."
2. The Trump Factor: Nationalization of State Races
(03:47–04:20; 09:30–11:18; 16:15–17:08)
- In every state, local elections took on national significance.
- Voting patterns—especially for New Jersey and California redistricting—mirrored approval or disapproval of President Trump, acting more as national referenda.
Alan Smith (04:20):
"This just became a referendum on Donald Trump... If you approved of Trump and you voted no on [redistricting], that's about 35%. If you disapprove of Trump, you voted yes. That's about 65%."
3. Progressive Win in New York City: Zohra Mamdani
(03:47–08:23; 18:13–18:56)
- Zohra Mamdani’s victory for mayor marks a watershed: breaking the 50% mark in a three-way race (with Cuomo and Sliwa).
- The symbolic importance of a clear mandate: topping 50% gives progressives fuel for broader ambitions.
Steve Kornacki (06:46):
"The 50% plus one was just such a huge thing for his ability to govern moving forward. It's very similar to why Donald Trump wanted to win the popular vote... He was able to take office and say, 'I have a mandate.'"
- Mamdani’s influences range from Eugene Debs to Bernie Sanders and AOC, but he aims for a "new kind of leftist politics" rather than emulation.
4. Redistricting & California: A Test Case for Nationalization
(04:20–05:21; 16:09–17:22)
- California’s vote on redistricting reform initially looked competitive, but morphed into a nationalized Trump referendum giving Democrats a ~30-point win.
- Governor Gavin Newsom is seen as burnishing his national credentials, positioning for 2028 by leading the Democratic fight against Trump.
Mel Zanona (17:25):
"He's not only positioned himself now very effectively as the face of the Trump opposition, he's also expanded his donor base... This is definitely a turn for him where he can now say, I led this fight successfully against Trump and make a good case for 2028."
5. The Government Shutdown: Who Gets the Blame?
(09:30–10:29)
- Virginia, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown, went decisively blue.
- Exit polls: Economy and the shutdown are top issues, with voters blaming Republicans and Trump.
Mel Zanona (09:54):
"Republicans are getting the blame for the shutdown, which is something that Republicans have not admitted on Capitol Hill... After such big wins…progressives are going to have a lot more to say about the idea of them caving [on negotiations]."
6. Future Strategy: Post-Election Calculation for Both Parties
(14:45–16:09)
- Democrats seize on anti-Trump sentiment, but some warn against relying solely on "not Trump" campaigns—issues like affordability cut across successful campaigns.
- Republican leaders split over whether to "hug Trump more" or distance from him.
- GOP strategy: tie all Democrats to Mamdani's progressive socialism in the coming midterms.
Mel Zanona (15:45):
"That’s exactly the debate. Do we hug him more, hug him less? Alex Bruchewitz…says the reason Republicans had such a bad performance…is ’cause they didn’t hug Trump enough. So that just really shows the split in the party right now."
Mel Zanona (18:31):
"This is going to be [Republicans’] chief strategy... try to yoke every single Democratic candidate to Mamdani. I don't know that that totally works… but they're certainly gonna try in the Republican Party."
7. Polling Misses & the Democratic Generic Ballot Lead
(12:55–13:39; 19:05–20:53)
- Discrepancies in polling vs. actual results (e.g., Ciattarelli's loss much wider than predicted).
- NBC polling indicates an 8-point lead for Democrats in the 2026 congressional generic ballot—tonight’s results match that trend in swing regions.
Steve Kornacki (19:05):
"We had the Democrats leading by 8 points... When I see the results in Virginia tonight, but when I really see those results in New Jersey and… competitive… parts… they are entirely consistent with a generic ballot that has the Democrats ahead by eight points."
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|-------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:13 | Steve Kornacki | "There's no avoiding it... The Trump factor..." | | 06:46 | Steve Kornacki | "The 50% plus one was just such a huge thing for his ability to govern"| | 09:54 | Mel Zanona | "Republicans are getting the blame for the shutdown..." | | 13:18 | Yasmin Vasugian | "But do you think that's a polling miss, or do you think that was a judgment miss?"| | 15:07 | Mel Zanona | "I do think that is probably going to be the message that Democrats take away from tonight. That being said, there's also a risk..."| | 17:25 | Mel Zanona | "He's not only positioned himself now very effectively as the face of the Trump opposition..."| | 18:31 | Mel Zanona | "They're going to try to yoke every single Democratic candidate to Mamdani..."| | 19:05 | Steve Kornacki | "We had the Democrats leading by 8 points on that [generic ballot]..." |
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:47 – Introduction and significance of the election night
- 02:16 – Democrats outperform expectations in VA and NJ
- 03:47 – New York City and California: progressive win and redistricting effect
- 06:25 – Strength and mandate of Mamdani’s NYC victory
- 09:09 – Voter priorities in Virginia and New Jersey: economy, shutdown
- 13:18 – Polling vs. actual results: lessons for both parties
- 14:45 – How parties respond: Democrats’ risks, GOP split on Trump strategy
- 16:15 – California results and Governor Newsom’s nationalization
- 17:45 – Newsom’s future and his standing within the Democratic Party
- 18:13 – GOP strategy: Using Mamdani as a foil
- 19:05 – Reviewing NBC News poll and its validation in actual results
Final Takeaways
- Democratic Momentum: Crushing wins for Democrats in multiple blue–and importantly, competitive–states, with larger-than-expected margins, point to anti-Trump sentiment shaping even local contests.
- The Trump Effect: Whether you support or oppose him, Trump’s presence in the White House looms over every race, driving party alignment and turnout.
- Rising Progressives: Zohra Mamdani’s win in NYC punches up the left’s national profile and gives Republicans a new bogeyman for 2026.
- Looking Ahead: The results suggest a solid lead for Democrats heading towards the midterms, fueled by both resistance to Trump and issue-based arguments on affordability and governance.
- Caveats Remain: While tonight’s outcomes are telling, the usual cautions apply—a lot can change between now and 2026.
For those who missed the live coverage, this episode breaks down not just the numbers, but the new political landscape forming in the wake of a pivotal election night.