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- [00:01]
A
Behind closed doors, can they actually get to some kind of resolution? Can they actually get to some kind of framework where they can also go back to their own countries, their own governments and present it ultimately as a win for themselves?
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Hey, everybody. And welcome to here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Laura Jarrett. Today on the show, the Trump administration is calling this two week ceasefire with Iran a victory, but so is Iran. We're going to talk about what's in the deal and whether it really is a win win for all. Meanwhile, while Israel says it has paused strikes on Iran, it's continuing its assault on Iran proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Could the divide between US and Israeli objectives endanger the fragile truce we have here? We're going to talk to our correspondent in Tel Aviv, but first we're going to start in Washington. The Trump administration has now agreed to pause all bombing and military strikes against Iran for the next two weeks. Iran says in return, it will help coordinate safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. That's a key US Demand here since the waterway is critical for oil shipping and has become a choke point for weeks now. So is this ceasefire a real off ramp or just a temporary breather of sorts? I want to bring in NBC News politics reporter Megan Leibowitz. Megan, so nice to have you on here. You've been doing a lot of reporting on this. It's been, it's about 90 minutes before the 8pm deadline down to the wire. On Tuesday, President Trump agreed to this two week ceasefire. He posts on Truth Social. What do we know about what led up to that moment?
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A
So this is really just the latest example of the president pushing this deadline back further. And this time it came after Pakistan's prime minister had posted to X calling on President Trump to enact a two week ceasefire. So the president in his Truth social post, when he had announced this, he said that he had agreed agree to the two week ceasefire. But and this is really important, he said that it was subject to Iran agreeing to, in his words, a complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the US had achieved many of its military objectives, exceeded its military objectives as well. But you know, Laura, there are some big questions remaining. The biggest one is what does this actually mean for the Strait of Hormuz moving forward? How quickly could it actually reopen? Just earlier today we're learning that Iran has actually suspended traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that was in response to Israel striking Lebanon. And when the ships actually do start going through what does that mean ultimately for when oil prices are ultimately able to start going down a little bit further as well? Laura?
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B
So if Iran is now blocking it once again and blocking the ships, is there an actual deal on the table right now or no?
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A
The short answer is it's unclear right now. You know, there is that cease fire in place. There are talks that might happen in Pakistan and Islamabad later this week. Pakistan's prime minister has invited delegations from both sides to go to Islamabad. We're waiting to see what that means from the US Side of things. But you know, the president said in his Truth Social post, He referenced this 10 point plan that Iran had submitted and he said that he believes that it's a workable basis on which to negotiate. Those were his words. Now here's the thing though. Iran has put out what they say is part of that 10 point plan and includes a lot of things that, you know, would usually be complete non starters for the US Sides. For example, one would be to withdraw US Combat forces from all bases and positions in the region. Another one was full compensation for damages to Iran. That again is almost certainly to be rejected by the United States. And then Iran had said that they want controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iran's armed forces. Now again, that gets to the question of what will the US Accept in terms of to what extent Iran's military can ultimately be involved in ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is this major shipping route that about a fifth of the world's oil passes through. And right now you have a situation where both sides are really declaring victory, but they still seem pretty far apart. So behind closed doors, can they actually get to some kind of resolution? Can they actually get to some kind of framework where they can also go back to their own countries, their own government, and present it ultimately as a win for themselves?
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B
There's also this issue of coordination because you got the Defense secretary holding a briefing this morning along with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and Secretary Hegseth said that the Pentagon's job in Iran was done and they'd be hanging around the region. But then there was this really telling moment, or at least maybe a reporter asked General Kaine about some of the logistics around the reopening of the Strait. And Cain seemed to shrug his shoulders. And so it raises this issue about what is the level of coordination between this White House and the Pentagon.
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A
Yeah, that's exactly right. And the answer to is it straight open? Seems to be that people don't really Know, at the moment, you know, ships are, have been.
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B
How could that be? How, how can, how is there like a question mark about that? We have a little tracker that shows the little dots all the time.
- [05:23]
A
Right. So a lot of this has to do as well with, you know, Iran is asking ships to get permission and in cases pay money in order to ultimately go through. But there really is the fear factor here as well. Because remember earlier in this, in this war as well, there were ships that were getting hit with strikes. And so that put a real fear into, well, even if Iran is saying that the strait could be open, does it actually mean that it's safe for freedom of passage in the future as well? In terms of this coordination between the White House and the military right now, the President said this morning that in a post to Truth Social that the US would working with Iran is what he said, remove all of this deeply buried nuclear dust is how he put it. Now, there are obviously a lot of questions about what that would effectively look like in practice. Would this mean that the military would be on the ground working with Iran? When would this happen? Would Iran even agree to any of this is a huge question mark as well. Hegseth was asked about this too, and he said during that press conference that Iran will give up that uranium, but he also said that we'll take it if we have to.
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B
As all this is playing out, there's also the politics of this moment and the politics of war have gotten kind of interesting here because even before the ceasefire agreement, the President had made a number of really stunning statements on social media. He said he'd bomb Iran into the Stone Ages. He said that he'd end a civilization. Democrats calling for the President's impeachment over the rhetoric saying that targeting infrastructure would be a war crime. But it's not just Democrats. Republicans notably here showing, I don't wanna say a break, but at least a fissure of sorts with the President on this, including a number of high profile figures within the MAGA movement. You're talking about people like Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, the former Congresswoman, Marjorie Taylor Greene. What is happening here and what is it about the President's either both rhetoric or actions that is making some of those who are typically pretty loyal to him sort of veer off.
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A
Even before that, there were some MAGA Republicans who were saying, we were promised no new wars, we were promised America first, America only, and this is not what we voted for. So we started to see some discontent starting to bubble up. But I would say, Laura, that the switch that we saw. This groundswell that we saw more recently really came in the aftermath of the president's remarks on Sunday and his escalatory remarks yesterday, talking about a whole civilization dying. And that's sort of when we saw even more pushback, particularly from this MAGA influencer sector. Some of these far right media personalities, people as you mentioned, like Tucker Carlson, people like Alex Jones and Marjorie Taylor Greene as well, even called for the president to be removed from office with the 25th Amendment. So, you know, it's really this remarkable turnaround from some people who had been really staunch supporters of the president. But it's a little bit of a different story when you go to Republicans who are in Congress. You know, first of all, right now Congress is on recess. And so we're not able to be asking these members of Congress questions directly as they're in the halls of Congress. They're back with their constituents right now. But in terms of what we're hearing from those Republicans in Congress, there have been a couple of them that have spoken out against the president's recent. There's also a lot of them who have not weighed in so far. And this is also coming as their colleagues across the aisle. Dozens of Democrats, more than 70 at this point, have called for President Trump to be removed from office either through the 25th Amendment, which there's part of that that lays out how the vice president and the Cabinet would be able to remove the president if they deem him to be unfit for office. That part has never actually been invoked before. Or Democrats are saying if the Cabinet does not move forward in doing that, then they want Congress to move forward with articles of impeachment and then move to convict him. Now, you know, Republicans control the House, Republicans control the Senate. So ultimately Democrats would need some kind of Republican buy in in order for that to actually happen. You know, certainly when they get back from recess, that's the sort of question that reporters are really going to be asking them. Is there any sort of red line for Republicans in terms of moving forward they think is considered to be appropriate presidential conduct, or what happens if the ceasefire ultimately does not hold? Laura?
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B
Megan Leibowitz, thank you.
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A
Thank you so much for having me.
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B
After our conversation, the White House press secretary, Caroline Levitt, announced at the daily briefing that The Vice President, J.D. vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and the president's son in law, Jared Kushner, will all head to Islamabad this weekend. Talks are set to begin Saturday morning local time. Meanwhile, Iran's Parliament speaker said that the United States has violated three causes of the deal, adding that a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations are unreasonable. All right, we're going to take a very quick break. And when we're back, why Israel's operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon could put the Iran ceasefire at real risk. And hey, while you're waiting, why not take a second to subscribe to our podcast wherever you're listening. And if you already subscribed, thank you. And don't forget to rate and review us. It really helps the algorithm.
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A
We'll be right back.
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B
And we're back with here's the scoop from NBC News. The announcement of this two week ceasefire was welcome news for many across the Middle east. But there are real concerns that complicated negotiations and rival peace plans could endanger it. That is especially true for the US Partner in this conflict, Israel. Now, some leaders there are worried that the deal was made too hastily. And Israel says the agreement does not extend to its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where air and ground assault has continued overnight. And that's not the only place where fighting persists. Sites in the Gulf states and in Iran have also been hit with strikes in just the first hours of this ceasefire. So how confident are leaders in the region that peace will be lasting? And what role will Israel play? Joining me now is NBC News foreign correspondent Matt Bradley, who is in Tel Aviv for me. Matt, really appreciate you joining us as you are sort of in the center of all of this right now. We know the US And Iran have agreed to this two week ceasefire, at least in theory. It all goes down just hours before President Trump's deadline was looming. Both countries are calling it a victory, at least on paper. What was the Israeli reaction to this change of heart?
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Well, the Israeli reaction looks not like what we were seeing from Iran and the United States, as you mentioned, both of them declaring victory alongside some really strong statements about how they, you know, defeated their enemy. The Israeli side, you really didn't hear that at all. You didn't hear that from the leadership. And what you heard instead from some of the opposition figures was that this was a massive diplomatic failure by Netanyahu, that Israel didn't get what it needed in this war, and now the door is closing to any further offensive against Iran that would allow Israel to complete its military objectives. So this has landed like a thud here, though there is definitely quite a bit of relief that this could very well might end the fighting, at least as far as Israelis are concerned. Those incoming Iranian missiles that we were still getting as of today.
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B
So help me tease out why it landed like a thud then, because it seems like it has sort of exposed what many had sort of already baked in here, which is that the US And Israel may not always align on their objectives. And so help me understand, where are the differences and where are the sticking points between the US And Israel on this?
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E
Well, yeah, I mean, the main difference is the one that you mentioned, this, this Lebanon issue, where we saw Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office make very clear after the Pakistani prime minister had come out with a statement saying that Lebanon was going to be part of the treaty. So the treaty would cover not just Israel, the US And Iran, but also the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon. And Israel's expansive ground offensive that's now weeks into it in Lebanon. And so this was followed up by the word from Netanyahu was followed up by Deed in such a huge way. We saw this huge attack that people in Beirut are telling me they haven't seen before. Even in these past couple of years of war that we've been seeing between Hezbollah and Islam.
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B
Is there a sense from you that Israel is sort of willing to just go it alone, at least as it relates to Lebanon?
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E
Yeah, I mean, that is always going to be the case. I mean, the fact is, is that when you talk about what the Israeli, you know, halls of power have been thinking and feeling about the US over the past couple of years, especially with regard to Iran, they've really treated the diplomatic track as an American thing, not something they're necessarily going to be investing in. And They've made that very clear, both in the way that they behaved and in the things that they've been saying. This was not just something that they considered an American thing, but something that they considered to be kind of a Witkoff Kushner thing, a sideline, a formality that needed to be done in order to justify or to push ahead with a plan that the Israelis have not been secret about, that they've felt like Iran has been pulling the strings behind all of the violence and all of the anti Israel fervor in the region and that they need to stop it by cutting off the head of the beast. And that's what they did with these Iranian attacks. So, you know, this is a situation that was the culmination of Benjamin Netanyahu's desire to try to finally get to Iran. And Hezbollah is considered part of that.
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B
So one of the results of this effort with Lebanon is that we are now hearing that Iran has suspended traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's ongoing attacks. And this is according a semi official news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, that's the one that's reporting this. So obviously the strait is the thing for President Trump. How much pressure does this put on Netanyahu, in your view, is this gonna be sort of the dividing line between President Trump and Netanyahu?
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E
It really is. I think probably from what we've just seen in just the last couple of minutes, the Iranian decision to now reblock the Strait of Hormuz, if it had ever been unblocked, is a real effort to try to force that issue, to say Hezbollah and Iran are on the same page in this conflict and you cannot separate the two. Israel's actions are saying very definitively we are trying to separate Hezbollah, cleave it away from its patron state, from Iran. And so now we're seeing that bleeding into the fight, as you mentioned, over the Strait of Hormuz, which is so important to President Trump. This could really drive a wedge. Or we might not see a wedge. We might just see Netanyahu completely decide that he needs to stay in President Trump's good graces and stop the fight against Hezbollah. Or we could see with the president saying that he's going to continue, we don't know what the President is going to do. We don't know how he's going to react. We've seen this over and over again. He's impossible to predict. And whether or not he decides to, as I mentioned, go along with this coupling or the decoupling that's kind of going to determine how the fight over Israel's northern border continues.
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B
What's your sense of where public sort of sentiment is on this within Israel? You're in Tel Aviv right now. Are people feeling like Israel has got this right in the short term and long term view?
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E
Well, there's a lot of things that really, when you talk about this issue with Lebanon and Hezbollah opens up a lot of, of really interesting divisions here in Israel. One of the divisions that really opens up is the question of the people who live in the north. It's one of the, it's not such a developed part of Israel and it's right up there in the border. It's far away from the bright lights of Tel Aviv where I am and the tourist attractions in Jerusalem. And so the people there feel like they are often ignored by the Israeli government. They feel like the Israeli government isn't doing enough to take Hezbollah to task and stop Hezbollah from continuing to lob rockets over is Israel's northern border. And they see that the Israeli government once evacuated hundreds of thousands of northern Israelis. Now they're leaving them put. And the situation there is pretty bad. There aren't any warnings for a lot of these incoming Hezbollah projectiles because they're so close. So that opens up that division. This is a continuing real fight and one that probably won't be resolved that soon, but one that Benjamin Netanyahu needs in order to maintain his credibility with the Israeli public.
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B
Matt Bradley, thank you.
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E
Thank you.
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B
All right, we're going to take a very quick break now. And when we're back, the woman convicted of selling the illegal ketamine that killed Friends star Matthew Perry has just learned her fate in court. That's next in headlines. Lifelock, how can I help?
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B
and we're back with here's the scoop from NBC News. Let's get to some headlines. The stock market jumped on the cease fire news despite lots of uncertainty about what the future of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz might look like. The Dow shot up 1200 points and the S and P and the Nasdaq surged as well. Meanwhile, US crude fell from yesterday's high of $117 a barrel to around around $95 a barrel. It's the biggest one day percentage drop since 2020, but it's still well above the pre war price of around $67 a barrel. Democrats are taking a victory lap after two state level elections this week. In Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, NBC News projects that Chris Taylor has won a 10 year term as a justice, giving the Liberals a 5, 2 edge in the key battleground states. In Georgia, Republican Clay Fuller won a special runoff election to fill the seat held by former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene with a 12 point margin there. President Trump, though, took that district by 37 points. So what does this all mean for the midterms this fall? Here's NBC News senior reporter Jane Timm.
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Yeah, Democrats are turning out. Republican Clay Fuller may have won, but he lost a 25 point share of the vote.
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A
That's a lot of voters.
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Of course we know that the party that's not in power tends to do well in the midterms, but the question is just by how much. In Wisconsin we saw a 10 point swing. These are strong numbers and they definitely suggest Democrats are going to be feeling good going into November.
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B
The woman convicted of selling the illegal ketamine that killed Friends star Matthew Perry has been sentenced to 15 years in prison. Lawyers for Jasveen Singha, who is known as the Ketamine Queen, has said that she'd accepted responsibility for her conduct and had asked the court for a sentence of time served. Sangha has been in federal custody since her arrest in August of 2024. A man in Ohio is now the first person to be convicted under the Trump administration's Take It Down Act. That's the federal law that criminalizes posting of non consensual sexual imagery, including deepfakes made by AI. The Justice Department said in a press release that he'd pleaded guilty to using AI to create thousands of obscene images of both adult and minor victims and that he'd posted them to a website dedicated to child sex abuse. And finally, we are a month out from the start of the new WNBA season. 80% of the players are free agents, and teams are going above and beyond to lock down top 10. The New York Liberty, the Minnesota Lynx and the Los Angeles Sparks have all extended franchise tags to their stars Sabrina Unescu, Nafisa Collier and Kelsey Plum. That basically means those teams have exclusive negotiating rights and the players are guaranteed a one year deal at the maximum salary allowed under league rules. And because of a new collective bargaining agreement which was just ratified a few weeks ago, that salary sits at something like $1.4 million. That is more than five times what they could have earned under the previous agreement. That's what I call a slam dunk. That's gonna do it for us at here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Laura Jarrett, filling in for Yasmin Vasugian. We'll be back tomorrow with whatever the day may bring. And if you like what you heard, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And you can also subscribe to our daily newsletter, the Inside Scoop. It's a deeper dive on the main stories of comes out every weeknight straight to your inbox. You can sign up for the Inside Scoop as part of our paid subscription@nbcnews.com.
- [25:52]
I
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