← HerMoney with Jean Chatzky
HerMoney with Jean Chatzky
Ep 509: Expert Investor Karen Finerman’s Bold Bets (and Red Flags) for 2026
00:34:14
Here's what the co-founder of our InvestingFixx club is watching in the year ahead.
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- [00:00]
Host 1
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Brooklyn Adams
Running things in Slack saves me so much time.
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Host 1
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Brooklyn Adams
Slack helps us build community.
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Karen Feinerman
It helps us build connection.
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Host 1
Your partners, vendors and customers all in one place. Take us on home. Ashley from Carraway if we didn't have.
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Jean Chatsky
Slack tomorrow, I would explode.
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Host 1
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- [01:02]
Karen Feinerman
And the one thing that I look at that helps me is the volatility index. And when that goes berserk, it's a measure of how much a market can move in one day. That's the statistical underlying but really what it is, people call it the fear and greed gauge. And so when it went from maybe the high teens up into the 50s during the days after Liberation Day and think, and you know, I was just getting crushed, I'm like, you know what? I am not selling my stocks. When the volatility index is in the 50s. That's fear at its maximum.
- [01:40]
Jean Chatsky
Hey everyone, thanks for joining us today on HerMoney. I'm Jean Chatsky. So at least when I am taping this, the markets seem to be still a little bit frothy. There is no other way to put it. Stock prices have soared, optimism is high. AI continues to drive some truly remarkable innovation. But as Andrew Ross Sorkin told us in our recent interview, when euphoria meets indiscriminate spending, especially in speculative sectors like artificial intelligence, it starts to echo what we saw in the dot com bubble and burst of 1999 2000. And while history shows that every crash has eventually been followed by recovery, it also reminds us we have to stay alert. Which is why today we are taking a closer look at what happened last year in the stock market and what might be ahead in 2026 and how to think clearly about risk and opportunity in this moment. Joining me is someone who's been helping women get smart about investing for Karen Feinerman. She is the co founder of our Investing Picks club where we teach hundreds of women how to invest with confidence. She is also the host of our sister podcast, How She does it, where we hear behind the scenes stories from the biggest movers and shakers across business, tech, entertainment, media and more. And I'm sure you know her from CNBC where she brings her smart sharp, no nonsense investing advice to the table. Karen, welcome back to her money. Thanks for doing this. It's been a while.
- [03:23]
Karen Feinerman
It has been a while. Thank you so much for having me. You know I love spending time with you just to, just to hang with you.
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Jean Chatsky
As do I. Before we dive into the market news, give us an update on how she does it. What have you learned so far from the amazing women that you've interviewed in season two?
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Karen Feinerman
So the main thing is that you don't end up where you think you're going to. You start somewhere. The path always changes. And some people end up in the most extraordinary places. Like recently the astronaut who was stuck on the space station. Station. That one I found to be like, I really wanted to know, like, okay, what do you do if you have to go to the bathroom on a spacewalk? That kind of thing. How do you sleep? And you know, so I just love hearing the women's stories and a lot of them at some point were lawyers and then are not. And then are not and then are not.
- [04:15]
Jean Chatsky
So interesting. You've had some really big names on this season. I hope that all of our listeners are checking it out and subscribing and tuning in. It's, it's been so much fun to follow.
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Karen Feinerman
The most fun. I think Czarnagarg was pretty hilarious. She is. She's something else. But I love all the women.
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Jean Chatsky
I love their stories and their stories come to life in your hands, which is, which is really amazing. Let's shift to investing. Every year you post this incredibly insightful thread on X or Twitter. Do you call it X or do you call it Twitter?
- [04:52]
Karen Feinerman
I still call it Twitter. I'm old school. Yeah, me too.
- [04:56]
Jean Chatsky
Anyway, you break down your winners, your losers, what worked, what didn't. It's so helpful and not just for our Investing Fix members, but for anyone trying to make sense of the markets. We will link to this thread in the show notes, but let's do a quick recap of it and then talk a little bit about where we go from here. Let's start with Your top performers from last year. In your thread, you mentioned Google was your biggest winner. The bear case was pretty strong, with fears about AI destroying search, weak Gemini rollout, antitrust fallout, slowing cloud growth. None of that actually played out. So what did happen with Google? When did you see the tide start to turn?
- [05:43]
Karen Feinerman
So the tide started to turn, I guess maybe in the spring. I have had been a Google shareholder for a long, long time, and this was a frustrating hold for a while, but the rollout of AI was so bad in the last two years. Remember, first they called it Bard, and then they called it Gemini, and really they did a terrible job. The product wasn't great. It really wasn't great. And I was surprised. And so there were a lot of fears about AI is coming and it's going to be over for search. And then they put out a quarter that wasn't bad, and people thought, all right, well, maybe the end is not right here for search. And then a bunch of things happened. They seemed to get their AI game together. They put out Gemini more recently, they put out New Gemini, they put out Nano Bananas. The numbers are. They went from 350 million to 650 million people on it. It really is just quite extraordinary. And then they also got a huge boost when, even though they lost an antitrust trial, the remedies were so much less bad and were good even than people feared. People feared that they would have to sell Chrome and that they would no longer be allowed to be on the iPhone and that search was also going to disintegrate. None of those things happened. Not only did search didn't disintegrate, AI actually seemed to help search. So that was really big. They're just hitting on all cylinders. And then when you look at some of their other businesses, YouTube, which they did start breaking out separately, so you can see what an extraordinary business that is. And Waymo, and if you think like, Tesla has a huge valuation for robo taxis, and Waymo doesn't seem to have that. So Google just started hitting on all cylinders, and I think it may be doubled since Liberation Day, maybe even a little bit better than that.
- [07:39]
Jean Chatsky
Well, you did mention Liberation Day and how tough that was emotionally, but that you stuck with your positions and that you even added talk about that moment and what helped you stay the course when things got rough.
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Karen Feinerman
So it was rough, I have to say. I remember doing an interview with Sarah Eisen, just a quick hit, and she's like, so you're not, you know, you're staying long? I'm like, yes, I am medicated and staying long. And it really was like. And that's not a joke. So I did really feel like, you know what, I've seen these kind of things before. And the one thing that I look at that helps me is the volatility index. And when that goes berserk, it's a measure of how much a market can move in one day. That's the statistical underlying. But really what it is, people call it the fear and greed gauge. And so when it went from maybe the high teens up into the 50s during the days after Liberation Day, and think, and you know, I was just getting crushed, I'm like, you know what? I am not selling my stocks. When the volatility index is in the 50s. That's fear at its maximum. So that has been a guide for me always. And so I try to think about, okay, if I owned nothing of anything, are these prices that I would want to buy things? Yes. And the older you get, you've seen a bunch of these very perspective. Yes. You have some perspective and you think, all right, well, things, however things are at this moment, they won't always be like that.
- [09:16]
Jean Chatsky
And then there was such an important lesson. Right. I mean, there are a lot of things that I truly do not like about getting older. But having seen things before, realizing that if we haven't been in this exact place before, we've been somewhere that feels a little bit like this is helpful, very helpful.
- [09:36]
Karen Feinerman
It really is a perspective, I think, that comes with. You have to be able to have seen a bunch of these for whatever the particular one was at the time, whether it was the pandemic or the financial crisis or whatever it was, or the dot com bust, whatever it was, that sort of psychology is always the same. Yeah.
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Jean Chatsky
You said you trimmed your AI exposure in October just as things started to look euphoric. I mentioned at the top of the had a really nice conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin about his new book. And he said that some of this AI driven enthusiasm to him feels awfully familiar. Do you see parallels between the market today, the market at the end of last year, and the late 90s.com boom and bust? And can you walk us through why you made the call to pull back?
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Karen Feinerman
So the call to pull back was just this is just too much, too soon without yet how it hasn't really come so much to fruition. So this sort of frenzied environment around something like a core weave that is certainly right in the heart of things. But when you look at the income statement and how they just burn money. So burning money is reminiscent of 99 and 2000. There are a lot of things that I think though are different than 99 and 2000, and that is when you think of who is really spending. It's Amazon for their AWS cloud business, it's Microsoft, it's Meta, and it's Google. And those are four of the biggest spenders. And the thing that's different from 1999 is these guys have the money to spend. So they have extraordinarily profitable businesses that allow them to do this, which is very different than 99, 2000. So that's a huge thing that makes me feel like it is different at this moment. Could it end up there at that public? Yes, it could. The one that is most troubling to me that we don't really have a good look at is OpenAI. They sign up $100 billion deals, like on a whim, it seems, and I don't really know what's backing that. And the burn there has to be enormous, the amount of money that they spend. And that one to me is, I sort of think, thank God they're not public, because if they were, this could really topple the entire thing. That one seems 99, 2000 ish to me. Even though I believe that AI is here to. It's here, it's happening. I don't know exactly how quickly. I don't know where the money's going to be made, but this is happening.
- [12:18]
Jean Chatsky
Well, I think what you said about Google and AI actually helping rather than hurting search is a little bit of an indication about how we're going to see it play out potentially in other industries.
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Sponsor/Ad Voice
Right.
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Jean Chatsky
It made it better. Now the question is, did it make it better for anyone but Google? Because Google's results are always at the top. But I do think it's that kind of using AI to make yourself more efficient and smarter that is going to be the win in the future.
- [12:56]
Karen Feinerman
And I think for so many companies that are not AI companies using AI smarter or at all going from zero to really using it. And I think one of the best examples would be banks, which have so many layers of bureaucracy that are mandated, but I think could really be vastly more efficient. And when you're a bank, you operate on a pretty thin margin. And so if you can improve your expenses dramatically, which I think they can, then that's going to have a very big, very big impact on your bottom line.
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Jean Chatsky
We know that you are a huge Jamie Dimon fan. I have to ask what you thought of his remarkable payday.
- [13:35]
Karen Feinerman
He's seen a number of them. He's worth it. He's worth it. I think he is the most important financial executive certainly the last 25 years. Let's say people forget he did not lose money in the great financial crisis and so many times he has been sort of ahead of the risks. He's going to be extremely difficult to replace and I will be so sad when he goes.
- [14:02]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
Absolutely.
- [14:04]
Jean Chatsky
Yeah. He's so much fun to watch. We're going to take a very quick break.
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Jean Chatsky
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- [16:11]
Jean Chatsky
We are back with Karen Feinerman, host of our sister podcast How She Does It. All right, let's talk about a few of your misses. I know our listeners love your honesty. You said Dell underwhelmed In the AI space, despite solid revenue growth. What's going on with Dell and what do you think is the view going forward?
- [16:35]
Karen Feinerman
So Dell was up about 10%, which is terrible relative. The market was up more, the space was up much more. They really had a few things that went wrong, a huge backlog. So there's a lot of future business to be had. But the margins were less than they were hoping for and less than the street was expecting. So the street really does not like to be disappointed. And so the multiple that it gets as a price to earnings, for example, is pretty low. And it doesn't reflect tremendous optimism in their ability to improve margins. And there's two parts of the business. There's servers and storage and then there's the PC business. And for a long time there's been this great hope of a PC refresh cycle that I believed would happen and predicated on Microsoft no longer supporting Windows 10. So people would switch over. That's often a time that you're switching your whole system. You would say, all right, time to get a new computer. And that just really didn't happen. And in the PC market, that did exist, which was disappointing. They lost share. It's kind of an embarrassing quarter for them, to be honest. They moved Jeff Clark from his COO role into running the PC business. So that's a guy who doesn't like to lose. So I like Michael Dell. I think he's a great thinker, he's a great businessman. I think that they will improve and will be rewarded nicely for it. But I was overly optimistic on how quickly they would improve margins and they didn't. So they better show up this year and I think they will. I'm staying with Dell.
- [18:21]
Jean Chatsky
Zillow down 6%. Slow home sales. That 30 year mortgage that people just can't let go of when they have it, they can't quit that they cannot. There was an FTC suit, as you put it.
- [18:36]
Karen Feinerman
Yuck, yuck.
- [18:38]
Jean Chatsky
Any upside here at all or is this one to just let go of?
- [18:42]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, you know, I'm sort of stuck. I don't, I didn't do a great job with this. I think I was more optimistic that their rental growth, which is a good part of their business, a newish but good part of their business would be enough because that has been improving nicely. But I didn't fully appreciate the headwinds of the home sales business. I mean, this is the lowest number of transactions and I forget 20 years, 30 years maybe. And they thrive on transactions. I was too optimistic about that business recovering. Now what do I do? I don't know. There's a lot I like about this management, and I like that they are the platform to go to.
- [19:26]
Jean Chatsky
Yeah. You know, it's interesting. I'm a big Zillow surfer. I like to look at real estate, but I look, and I think many people do this. I look at real estate sort of specifically. I look at it in my zip code. I look at it in the zip code in New Jersey where we have a. And it's gotten really boring because there's nothing being listed. And so I wonder if that's part of the sort of Zillow malaise as well.
- [19:53]
Karen Feinerman
That is a good point that I hadn't really considered. The sort of real estate porn of it is just not. It's not doing it for you anymore.
- [20:00]
Jean Chatsky
The porn isn't porning.
- [20:01]
Karen Feinerman
Okay, well, that's gotta be disappointing for a whole bunch of people. So I am not sure what to do with it. It probably means what a mistake I make again and again is getting too emotionally connected to stocks.
- [20:15]
Jean Chatsky
This happens to you. It happens. I mean, really. Wow.
- [20:19]
Karen Feinerman
And I try to remember, all right, you can sell it. It doesn't mean that you can't buy it back.
- [20:24]
Jean Chatsky
Right.
- [20:25]
Karen Feinerman
You can sell it. Certainly at a loss. Sell it. Wait 31 days, maybe things look different. There's an objectivity that you get from not owning something that you or I don't. That I get from not owning it that I don't have. When I do. You own it.
- [20:39]
Jean Chatsky
Oh, that is fascinating.
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Karen Feinerman
So this is one to consider for sale.
- [20:46]
Jean Chatsky
Abercrombie, you were early, you were aggressive. The stock rallied, but you were still tough on yourself.
- [20:53]
Karen Feinerman
I did a bad job. That's why I was tough on myself. I mean, if I worked for me then, and I came with this the whole way, the whole strategy that I did, that wouldn't be good. I mean, so the last. Or I guess it's maybe two years ago now, they were at a conference. And when you speak at a conference, if you want to say anything that's, you know, introducing new numbers or something, the street doesn't know. You put a release out there so everyone can see it at the same time. They put a release out, the numbers were lower than the street expected. The stock got annihilated. It went from the 170s down to 130. And I thought, wow, this is really overdone. So I started buying at 130, and that was way, way, way too early. And then I was buying it like 110 and then I was buying at 90. And so by the time it got to 70, I didn't have enough room left. I bought some more. But my average cost, because I started aggressive too high, that really, really kind of turned what could have been an outstanding trade into. Yeah, okay, that was nice. By the time the sort of bottom of sentiment was in, the stock was 66. It was one of the cheapest stocks I had ever seen with a, with a balance sheet like they had, which was outstanding, with a management team like they have, which is outstanding. And I had too much already to buy more. So the stock was 66 or 67 the day before earnings. And it is, I don't know, 123 or 4. This was in December. Yeah, and so now it's 123 or 4. So that would have been great if I could have started buying at 80 and 70 and 66, but I didn't. So that was my worst one of the year by far. You know, I'm always long. And so when a rising tide like this year was, most of the boats are going to rise. So that one was really disappointing.
- [22:55]
Jean Chatsky
I don't want to let you be too hard on yourself. We are heading into 2026. We're in 2026.
- [23:00]
Karen Feinerman
We're in the year already.
- [23:01]
Jean Chatsky
God, there is so much uncertainty. Tariffs, inflation, debt, global instability. Venezuela, I mean, we saw the market pop right after this weekend of Venezuela news. We're hearing some pretty aggressive talk from the administration about the potential to quote unquote, take over more countries. How do you think investors should be looking at this? And what was the pop about? I mean, was it all oil? Was it other things? Was it the fact that it doesn't seem to be a major market event? How do you, how do you read this?
- [23:48]
Karen Feinerman
So I think it's not that big of a deal in the scheme of oil production. It's a relatively small producer, I think maybe a million barrels a day. So it's in the sub 1% range. So that doesn't really move the needle a lot. I don't know why the market loved this so much. I think part of it was Goldman Sachs was up a lot and that's a huge weight in the Dow. And so apparently that was like 200 points of the rally. So I know I don't look at the Dow, but it's, I don't know, gives you a quick one second feeling of how the market's doing. So I think it was somewhat overstated. I don't know if it's just the idea that, all right, Trump's going to sort of have his way with the world. I don't know, the Greenland thing, I'm not really a fan of taking over Greenland, but I'm not sure actually what to make of it. The thing that was interesting, though, to note about the oil part of it. So oil was up a dollar, which is per barrel, which is not really a gigantic move. But what really was up was the oil field services companies. Those companies that do the nuts and bolts, the guts of exploration and production and drilling and refine. Those companies were up a lot more because that whole infrastructure of Venezuela's oil machine needs to be rebuilt regardless of how much oil it brings back on the market.
- [25:19]
Jean Chatsky
And I should point out you've pitched those oil production servicers.
- [25:24]
Karen Feinerman
Yes.
- [25:25]
Jean Chatsky
To our investing fix club a number of times.
- [25:28]
Karen Feinerman
And they were having none of it.
- [25:29]
Jean Chatsky
And they were having none. Well, but they were right. But they would have been happy today if they had taken a hold of them. We're going to take a very quick break. When we come back, we're going to talk about what you're most excited about for 2026 right now.
- [25:44]
Host 1
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- [26:40]
Jean Chatsky
We are back with Karen Feinerman, host of our sister podcast How She Does It. You always remind us, Karen, that investing is not just about picking individual stocks. It's about building a strong, well balanced portfolio. So how do you you believe investors should be thinking about diversification? Different sectors going into this year of 2026.
- [27:08]
Karen Feinerman
So I don't look to sort of remake the whole the whole portfolio because the calendar changed. Like I'm far more likely to clean out my closet and really do things like that.
- [27:20]
Jean Chatsky
And yes, I organize the Tupperware Exactly.
- [27:23]
Karen Feinerman
You make big changes to that, to the wardrobe, maybe to the Tupperware, whatever it is to the portfolio. I don't really. Because I don't think anything really has changed so much. I do think about when earnings end. The stock market just sort of floats around on other kind of news other than earnings. But to me, the earnings part, getting that information is the most important thing. So we're coming to that time where we start to hear it'll be next. It starts kicks off with JP Morgan on the 13th and we'll hear what do they see in the economy? And they're going to have an outstanding look. That stock has run up huge, as have all the banks. And I do think the environment for banks is still really good, if for no other reason than deregulation. So banks have been sort of really held back since 0708 as they should have been. Right. And the layers and layers of bureaucracy though, I think will start to fall. They'll become much more efficient. And I think this is a once in a, I don't know, maybe decade or so change rolling back regulation. And so I think that's a sector I want to be in, want to stay in for sure. So a big Citibank position, bigger JP Morgan position. I like that. I want to stay there. But this run up before the earnings isn't delightful. And they always try to be more calm, a little more understated. Just as you're a banker, you should be. You don't want someone controlling the financial system to be rah rah out there. Let's go.
- [29:03]
Jean Chatsky
How, how are you feeling about AI and these AI darlings going into this year?
- [29:09]
Karen Feinerman
Conflicted. I am conflicted. I think that company OpenAI, I really think lies at the heart of the health of the AI business for now. And I don't think they're going to go public this year. I don't know that they can. I don't actually think the underlying business supports it at the moment. So they're not going to have to keep doing these deals. I do think that the amount of build that we expect to happen, the data center build won't happen as much for several reasons. It's harder to finance right now. People are more scared of it. And then always power has been a concern. Where are they all going to get the power? And more recently it's also been nobody wants them in their backyard. So. Right. We saw there was a recently was in New Mexico where it was a large project that was turn down. And so I think that Will slow. And so for a company like a Core Weave or something like that, or Oracle, who's had taken on a lot of debt, I feel like that's a little more risk there than a meta who. I don't love how much money they're throwing at the business, but they do have the money to throw at.
- [30:28]
Jean Chatsky
For those people who are listening, who are not familiar with our investing fix program, the way it works is that Karen and other amaz amazing stock pickers pitch different stocks, four different stocks each month. We talk about them across four dimensions. What do they do, what do we like about them, what don't we like about them, and whether they're a buy or not at the price that they're trading at. And then once a month, the members of the club vote on what to add to the portfolio. Our portfolio beat the market last year. It has beaten the market pretty consistently since we launched, which is, by the way, not credit to me. It is our members who've decided what to add to the portfolio. What do you think that they did right and what do you think they should be thinking about for 26?
- [31:31]
Karen Feinerman
What did they do right? They did a lot right. They were open to looking at sort of different sectors and rejecting some of them. Like you talked about energy, which was a good one to reject for the last couple of times that I pitched it. The thing though, that let me just digress for a second, I love how interested they are, how much they're just really eager to learn. I love that. And collectively they've made very wise decisions and I really like that, both on what to buy and what to sell. And they've done a better job on a number of names than I have. So that's great to see. One of the things I love is they want to learn more about what something they already know about. So it could be they're in a particular industry and they want to learn about, all right, how do I invest in this industry? How do I think about my own company stock? And that's been interesting. And sometimes they pitch an idea, I'll work with them and they'll pitch an idea and they have really interesting insight and that's been really fun for me and for them. And they're so excited for when they have a name that one of them pitched and it really works. We had someone pitch Oracle at I think 108. Yeah, I think was where she pitched it. And clearly that was really good. We got somewhat lucky. We paired a lot of our AI exposure. We had a, I think it grew beyond what the original cost was as many AI trades did. But I think they did a good job deciding to pair it as well. That was important. So I'm very proud of them.
- [33:17]
Jean Chatsky
Yeah, I am too. And I think for anybody who'd like to learn more about the world of investing, whether or not you want to invest in India individual stocks, you should take a moment, check it out. We'll put the link in the show notes. Karen, thank you so much for this. Happy 2026. I think it's an amazing year.
- [33:35]
Karen Feinerman
I hope so too. I always love hanging out with you. Any chance I get headphones? No headphones. Whatever. In person anyway. All right. Great to be with you. You too.
- [33:46]
Brooklyn Adams
Bye bye bye.
- [33:48]
Jean Chatsky
If you love today's episode, please take a moment to leave us a five.
- [33:52]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
Star review on Apple Podcast.
- [33:54]
Jean Chatsky
Your feedback means the world to me. If listening to this episode has you thinking, all right, I am ready to get serious about growing my money, but I still don't feel 100% confident about investing. I want to personally invite you to check out our Investing Fix program. It's a live weekly investing club designed for women by women, where we break down what's happening in the markets, explain how different investment works, and give you.
- [34:24]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
All the tools that you need to.
- [34:26]
Jean Chatsky
Build your own confident long term strategy. And now is a great time to start while the markets are still showing strength and interest rates are shifting. So if you want to make 2026 the year you finally feel in control of your investments, go to investing fix.com that's fix with two X's. I'd love to see you there. Her money is produced by Haley Pascalitis.
- [34:52]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
And our music is provided by Video Helper.
- [34:55]
Jean Chatsky
Thanks so much for listening and we'll talk soon.
- [34:58]
Karen Feinerman
Well, the holidays have come and gone.
- [35:00]
Host 1
Once again, but if you've forgotten to.
- [35:02]
Brooklyn Adams
Get that special someone in your life.
- [35:03]
Karen Feinerman
A gift, well, Mint Mobile is extending.
- [35:06]
Brooklyn Adams
Their holiday offer of half off unlimited wireless.
- [35:09]
Karen Feinerman
So here's the idea. You get it now. You call it an early present for next year. What do you have to lose? Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch limited time.
- [35:18]
Brooklyn Adams
50% off regular price for new customers. Upfront payment required $45 for 3 months, $90 for 6 month or $180 for 12 month. Plan taxes and fees. Extra speeds may slow after 50 gigabytes per month when network is busy see terms.