wavePod

You 2.0: Trusting Your Doubt - Hidden Brain | Wave AI Podcast Notes

You 2.0: Trusting Your Doubt

Mon Jan 26 2026

We conclude our month-long You 2.0 series with a look at the hidden power of doubt — not as weakness or indecision, but as a tool that helps us make better choices and navigate an uncertain world. Researcher Bobby Parmar explores how doubt can sharpen judgment, and makes a case for why the ability to sit with uncertainty may be one of the most important skills of all. Then, in our latest installment of "Your Questions Answered," Emily Falk answers listeners' questions about defensiveness, and offers insights into how we can strengthen our ability to give and receive feedback.

Summary

Hidden Brain: "You 2.0: Trusting Your Doubt"

Podcast: Hidden Brain
Host: Shankar Vedantam
Guest: Bidan "Bobby" Parmar, Darden School of Business, University of Virginia
Date: January 26, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the "hidden power of doubt" in our lives—how uncertainty is often perceived as a weakness but can actually be harnessed as a tool for better decision-making, stronger relationships, and personal growth. Host Shankar Vedantam and guest Bobby Parmar discuss neuroscience, personal anecdotes, and research, spotlighting why learning to lean into doubt and uncertainty can make us more resilient and creative.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Leadership and Hidden Doubt

Eisenhower’s D-Day Story:
- Public confidence vs. private doubt.
- The “failure note” Eisenhower penned in case the D-Day landing failed reveals how even decisive leaders grapple with uncertainty.
- [00:00-02:00]
Insight:
- True leadership acknowledges risk and personal accountability, not just outward confidence.

2. Personal Experience with Doubt: The Backpacking Story

Bobby Parmar’s 14-Day Wyoming Hike:
- Despite allergy issues and lack of experience, Bobby joined a diverse group for a demanding hike.
- On a challenging day, he made a quick, confident decision to descend a mountain to find a lake, only to face a costly mistake after two hours hiking the wrong way.
- “It was easier to keep moving than it was to admit I was wrong.” —Bobby Parmar [10:12]
- Reflection: The discomfort with uncertainty led to action rather than consideration.
Insight:
- The urge to resolve uncertainty pushes us to premature and sometimes erroneous choices.
- Accepting and sitting with doubt can lead to better judgments.

3. Why Is Uncertainty So Painful?

Cognitive and Neural Pathways:
- The brain is wired to seek certainty; uncertainty triggers the same circuits as aversive emotions.
- [15:25-16:25]
Three Neural Systems Regulating Doubt:
- Pursue System: Driven by dopamine; motivates us towards anticipated rewards.
- Protect System: Triggered by threat; activates fight/flight/freeze responses.
- Pause and Piece Together System: Orchestrates attention and working memory to process ambiguity—a neural basis for doubt.
- Under stress, the “pause” system is overridden, increasing impulsivity and reducing learning.
  - “When they…inhibit the functioning of the pause and piece together system, people become much more impulsive.” —Bobby Parmar [20:43]
Insight:
- Stress, fatigue, and the desire for closure downregulate our capacity to process competing information, making us more likely to jump to conclusions.

4. Intuition, Confirmation Bias, and Doubt

How Intuition Works:
- Intuition is efficient in familiar situations but may mislead in novel, ambiguous scenarios.
- “Our intuition becomes informed intuition...you’re actually basing it on a base of knowledge.” —Shankar Vedantam discussing Kahneman’s research [25:30]
Confirmation Bias:
- Once we commit to a course, our brain seeks confirming evidence and disregards inconsistency.
- “After having made a decision, we tend to stop learning and focus on things that make us feel like we made the right choice.” —Bobby Parmar [27:02]
Insight:
- Awareness of our intuitive and confirmatory tendencies can help us create space for doubt and learning.

5. Blame, Social Dynamics, and Leadership Culture

Fear of Blame Hinders Learning:
- Anticipation of blame (social punishment) triggers protect mode, discourages raising issues, and limits group learning (e.g., Boeing 737 Max crisis).
- “When we anticipate blame, it shuts learning down.” —Bobby Parmar [28:50]
Valorization of Decisiveness:
- Society rewards confidence; we are drawn to decisive leaders, even if their confidence masks doubt or error.
- “...we all internalize this message that being smart means getting the right answer.” —Bobby Parmar [30:20]
Social Conformity Experiments:
- Classic studies show how we mimic group behavior, even when it’s arbitrary or illogical (elevator and street corner experiments).
- “When we walk into any environment, we don't know what to do. We default to what others around us are doing.” —Bobby Parmar [33:03]

6. Redemption through Doubt: The Patagonia Story

Applying Lessons Learned:
- On a subsequent hiking trip, Bobby revisits his prior error, this time guiding his group to pause, return, and explore alternatives instead of rushing toward a mistaken goal.
- “Instead of feeling like hiking back up the mountain is a waste of time…it was like an investment in learning.” —Bobby Parmar [37:17]
Active Engagement with Doubt:
- Don’t passively “sit” with doubt; actively investigate and reframe uncertainty as a chance for growth.

7. Strategies for Harnessing Doubt

Expert vs. Novice Decision-Making:
- Experts treat intuition as a hypothesis; they probe uncertainties, develop mitigation strategies, and collect more data.
- “Experts saw that data as much more complicated and nuanced...They built strategies that were flexible.” —Bobby Parmar [41:10]
Anomalizing and the Pre-mortem:
- Look for weak signals that things aren’t as expected and conduct pre-mortems to anticipate failure.
- “Let's imagine we launch…and three weeks later it failed. What is the most likely cause of death?” —Bobby Parmar [44:07]
Learning from Failure: Airbnb and the Scientific Method:
- Airbnb’s pivot after noticing why users weren’t renting properties exemplifies the value of focused inquiry on “how,” not just “what.”
- Scientific progress relies on testing, doubt, and iteration.
- “Learning is just as much a social and emotional endeavor [as a cognitive one]...when we take doubt seriously, we…preserve learning.” —Bobby Parmar [47:59]

8. Societal and Political Dangers of Over-Confidence

Certainty as an Addictive Substance:
- Public craves certainty, making overconfident leaders appealing but potentially misleading.
- “It just feels like you're offering an addictive substance to your audience, that in that moment your audience is like, ah, there's some certainty…” —Bobby Parmar [50:35]
The Addiction to Feeling Right:
- Social media amplifies echo chambers, furthering our addiction to certainty.
- “We have to really be careful…is this risk of the addiction to feeling right.” —Bobby Parmar [51:24]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“It was easier to keep moving than it was to admit I was wrong.”
—Bobby Parmar [10:12]
“When we anticipate blame, it shuts learning down.”
—Bobby Parmar [28:50]
“Experts… treat their intuition not as a decision, but as a hypothesis.”
—Bobby Parmar [41:10]
“We have to really be careful…is this risk of the addiction to feeling right.”
—Bobby Parmar [51:24]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |-----------|--------------| | 00:00-02:00 | Eisenhower’s D-Day “failure note”; confidence and hidden doubt in leadership | | 06:34-12:38 | Bobby Parmar’s backpacking error and reflection on discomfort with uncertainty | | 15:25-19:27 | Brain systems: pursue, protect, and pause/piece together; neuroscience of doubt | | 22:30-27:40 | The pitfalls of intuition and confirmation bias | | 28:40-33:03 | Blame avoidance, leadership culture, social conformity | | 35:50-38:18 | Redemption: Patagonia hiking story—actively engaging doubt as learning | | 39:46-45:19 | Expert vs. novice decision strategies, anomalizing, pre-mortem technique | | 47:38-47:59 | Airbnb’s story and the value of “how” questions; scientific method | | 50:16-51:24 | Addiction to certainty, dangers in politics and social media echo chambers |

Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is engaging, warm, and often self-reflective—marked by humor and a willingness to acknowledge personal and collective fallibility. Rather than shaming doubt, the hosts and guest frame it as a sign of maturity, wisdom, and a precursor to true growth and innovation.

Key Takeaways:

Doubt is uncomfortable but essential; it signals opportunities for learning and creativity.
Experienced decision-makers use doubt constructively, as a prompt to probe, gather information, and consider alternatives.
Culturally, we need to redefine strength—not as unyielding confidence, but as thoughtful engagement with uncertainty.
To grow, both individually and collectively, we must cultivate environments where doubt is valued, blame is minimized, and the pursuit of certainty is tempered by the humility to recognize complexity.

Loading summary...

Transcript

Shankar Vedantam (0:00)

This is Hidden Brain. I'm Shankar Vedantam. June 5, 1944. General Dwight D. Eisenhower, supreme commander of Allied forces, had driven unannounced to the Greenham Common Air Force Base in the United Kingdom. Paratroopers of the 101st Airborne Division were preparing for a historic jump. General Eisenhower wanted to boost morale. The soldiers knew they were on a mission, but they didn't yet know the scale. The general eased their fears with a confident demeanor and friendly small talk. Where are you from? He asked one lieutenant. Michigan. Spectacular fishing there. Eisenhower said he was about to release a short and blunt one page memo telling troops that they were on a great crusade to liberate Europe. He ordered them to accept nothing less than full victory. But that evening, as he made his way back home, the general confided in his driver, I hope to God I'm right. The weather forecasts were uncertain and a slight change could lead to failure. Eisenhower returned to his cottage and wrote a message that no one was supposed to see. A statement taking full responsibility if D day failed. Our landings have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops, he wrote. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt, it is mine alone. He underlined those final words for emphasis and tucked the note into his wallet. He never needed it. Under the command of General Eisenhower, Allied naval forces, supported by strong air forces.

Bobby Parmar (1:50)

Began landing allied armies this morning on the northern coast of France.

Shankar Vedantam (1:57)

A few days later, a now iconic photo was published in newspapers. Ike surrounded by those American paratroopers. He leans in tall and eagle eyed. He was lauded as a hero, the general who launched the great crusade. He was the epitome of American decisiveness, confidence, command. Ike's failure note, as it has come to be known, was never used and remains little known. But it reveals something profound about leadership. Behind his public confidence was massive doubt, uncertainty and the heavy burden of a decision. This week on Hidden Brain we explore the hidden power of doubt. Not as weakness or indecision, but as a tool that helps us make better choices, build stronger relationships and navigate an uncertain world. Support for Hidden brain comes from ADT. Every second counts. In an emergency, ADT delivers home security you can trust backed by 247 monitoring the most company operated monitoring centers in the industry and technology that verifies your alarms to send help faster compared to unverified alarms. ADT pros can install your customized home security system the right way so you feel secure from the start. When every second Counts, count on ADT, visit ADT.com or call 1-800ADT ASAP. Support for hidden Brain comes from Progressive where drivers who save by switching save nearly $750 on average. Plus auto customers qualify for an average of 7 discounts. Quote now@progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates national average 12 month savings of $744 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2022 and May 2023. Potential savings will vary. Discounts not available in all states and situations. Support for Hidden Brain comes from Dell Meet the all new Dell XPS laptop. With its ultra thin design and all day battery life, the Infinity Edge display immerses you in vibrant colors and crystal clear detail whether you're working or streaming. Powered by Series 3 Intel Core Ultra processors, the XPS is made for editing photos, mixing tracks and and designing masterpieces. Check out the all new dell xps@dell.com xps. When you picture a strong leader, what do you see? Someone confident, decisive, unwilling to back down. We don't think of strong leaders as hesitant, doubtful or unsure of the right answers. Confidence and determination are admirable traits, but they also have drawbacks. Confidence can lead to overconfidence. Decisiveness can make leaders less tolerant of dissent. Determination can blind us to risks. At the University of Virginia's Daughton School of Business, Bidan Parmar studies the value of doubt. He goes by Bobby and he says that by avoiding uncertainty, we miss out on opportunities for growth. Bobby Parmar, welcome to Hidden Brain.

Bobby Parmar (45:42)

Bobby, Airbnb is a brilliant idea. You know, when you look at it on paper or on slide decks, the idea of having people rent out or lease their properties makes so much sense. But in the actual implementation of the idea, the founders learned that they had some more work to do. So early on, they started to say, look, we built this beautiful system. People can lease their properties. The back end financial system works really well. You can get credit card transactions to work, but no one was actually renting properties and they couldn't figure out why. So they got really curious and they said, why don't we spend some time with some of our customers? And they watched customers actually navigate the Airbnb website. And one of the first things they learned is at the time when people were posting their properties in Manhattan, they were posting very grainy cell phone photos, so you couldn't see the quality of the place that you were renting. And people would say, well, why would I spend $250 or $300 a night for this place that looks really grainy. I can't quite tell what it is. I could stay in a really nice hotel for the same price. And so that led them to this other hypothesis, which is, why don't we have someone take professional photos of some of these properties? And they found very quickly that properties with professional photos rented very quickly. And what's important about this story is that many times when we're making decisions, we focus on the what. What's the business that we build in order to get people to be able to rent out property that they have? We spend less attention to the how. And when we. When we focus on the what, it's really easy to have a big abstract vision that has lots of assumptions baked into it, and there's lots of things that we don't know, and we can convince ourselves that we're right. But when we focus on the how, we have to become much more specific, and it focuses us to imagine with much more discipline and much more detail how we're going to get from point A to point B.

Emily Falk (56:28)

Well, in our brains we have a system called the value system that helps us evaluate whether things are good or bad, likely to be rewarding for us. And we also have a self relevance system that helps us decide whether things are me or not me. And interestingly, those two systems are really intertwined with one another. So the same kinds of brain patterns that differentiate between whether I think that a particular trait like messy or intelligent applies to me can also differentiate whether I'm looking at an image that I think is positive, like a birthday party or negative, like a pile of trash or a gory scene. And in our day to day lives, this comes up in so many different places, starting with the physical things that we hold onto. So right now I've been thinking a lot. I've been helping my mom navigate clearing out stuff in her house and we have movers scheduled to come and take the rest of the stuff out of her house next week. And in preparation for that, I have spent so much time recently going through a lot of my childhood things. So some of those things are really important and things that I'm going to hold dear, like the stool that my dad made for me, the little wooden stool that has an E on it when I was a kid that 100% I'm keeping. But then there's also stuff that would just be clutter like all of the textbooks and notebooks that have hundreds of pages of notes that I took in high school and college, like the things that I learned about, you know, revolutions in Central America in high school. There are books that do a much better job of describing those situations than my partial understanding as a 16 year old. And yet going through those notebooks and seeing my handwriting and thinking about who I was at the time, it feels so hard to let go of those things and throw them out. And I think that comes from this idea that things that I think of as me are also then kind of inherently valuable in a different way than, you know, looking at somebody else's notebook. I can see that that's probably not something that I need to keep. And so that intertwining of self and value is sometimes really beneficial because it helps us maintain a positive sense of self. But it can also get us in trouble because we hold really tightly to the things that we've done in the past or to things that we think of as being part of us.

Emily Falk (96:43)

I think that Isabel's question and comment highlight something that's really important about the ways that we take feedback on board for things that might be very important to us versus things that might be less important to us. So research from Brent Hughes's lab has looked at the way that we construct our sense of self and there's kind of a hierarchy of traits where some of them are much more core to our sense of who we are. Maybe thinking about the ways that we're kind or honest or loyal to our friends and family, those things might be more core and other kinds of things might be more peripheral, the things that are more specific or less of the most important values to us. And in his team's research, what they found is that when people were given feedback about their performance on a particular task from supposedly a group of experts first, people were much quicker to take on board the positive feedback than the negative feedback. So when they said, wow, this person looks like they're really smart or this person looks like they're really funny or really engaging, then that's easier to say, wow. I didn't think of myself as somebody who is a particularly engaging speaker. But I guess if this audience thinks I am, if this set of evaluators thinks I am, then that must be true. And on average for the typical person in the study, they were a little bit more hesitant to take on board that negative input. So that was particularly true for people who came into the study with higher self esteem and lower levels of depression. And so Isabel's story makes me think a little bit about some of those base differences in how we're navigating our day to day lives where if we're finding that it's very easy for us to absorb other people's negative evaluations, that might be a situation where we want to take a step back and figure out if we could get some support to bolster our own sense of self, our own sense of self esteem and well being. Because that could be a flag.