Hidden Forces

Ending the Ukraine War: A Reset in U.S.-Russia Relations?

Guests: Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman

Host: Demetri Kofinas

Release Date: March 3, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Demetri Kofinas welcomes Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security specializing in Russian and European security, and Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist and expert on Russian military affairs. The main focus is on the ongoing U.S.-Russia peace negotiations to end the Ukraine war and the broader implications for European security, global order, and American foreign policy under President Trump.

The conversation spans the specifics of negotiating positions in the Riyadh peace talks, power dynamics inside both the Biden and Trump administrations and the Kremlin, the real chances for a larger “reset” in international relations, and whether the world is witnessing a new era of realpolitik and transactional diplomacy.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Introducing the Guests and Their Expertise (03:42–04:53)

• Andrea Kendall-Taylor describes her decade-long background in the U.S. intelligence community focusing on Russia and European affairs.
• Michael Kofman details his path through defense analysis, his Ukrainian background, and the challenge of maintaining objectivity while analyzing a war involving his country of origin.

Quote (Kofman, 05:09):

"As a military analyst, you get inured to war—that's your profession—but it was a struggle early on, mostly because I know a lot of places and they're familiar to you...but job one is to try to stay objective and to kind of give the best analysis and advice you can."

2. U.S. and Russian Negotiating Positions in Riyadh (06:02–11:56)

• U.S. is increasingly taking options off the table, weakening its leverage (B: 06:35).
  • Public commitments not to support NATO membership for Ukraine, no NATO troops in Ukraine, etc.
• Russia maintains maximalist demands and applies pressure—no territorial concessions, further drone attacks on Kyiv, no moves toward compromise.
• Russia is pushing the ‘Istanbul Framework’ from early 2022, seeking Ukrainian neutrality, limits on Ukrainian armed forces, and wide-reaching security and domestic policy controls.
• Perceived Advantage: Russia feels no urgency to settle; the U.S. looks urgent and reactive.

Quote (Kendall-Taylor, 08:30):

"Russia is putting things on the table, increasing its demands...they don’t demonstrate any interest in making any concessions or good faith gestures."

Quote (Kofman, 10:51):

"If you’re the motivated party that wants to make a deal, and for some reason it’s urgent for you to make the fastest deal possible, then...you end up being weaker by virtue of the fact that you’re more motivated."

3. Internal Political Constraints: U.S. and Russia (11:56–22:39)

• U.S. Drivers:
  • President Trump personally wants a deal to end the war; may be motivated by desire for the Nobel Peace Prize and legacy as a ‘peace president’ (B: 12:16).
  • Appears to lack a coherent strategic doctrine—actions seem personal, not deeply planned.
  • Administration’s foreign policy constraints include a lack of process and staffing, leading to inconsistent negotiation tactics and coordination problems.
    (C: 17:14, 20:44)

Quote (Kendall-Taylor, 12:41):

"He wants to be a peace president, not a war president...he’s very fixated on his image as being the one who can solve this problem and bring peace to Ukraine."

• Russian Drivers:
  • Putin’s regime is highly personalist; primary threat comes from nationalist right, not liberals or opposition.
  • War efforts largely insulated from domestic backlash due to demographic targeting of poorer, non-ethnic Russian regions and benefit payments to families of dead soldiers (C: 23:07, 33:17).
  • Economic pressures and long-term sustainability are issues, but not acute enough to force a change in strategy in the short term.

Quote (Kofman, 23:07):

"Russia is a personal authoritarian regime...job one is to eliminate any alternatives to themselves."

Quote (Kendall-Taylor, 30:23):

"He is not tolerant of casualties...he’s ensured that the politically most important Russians have not really been affected as directly by the war."

4. Casualties, Society, and the Resilience of Putin’s Regime (27:51–38:09)

• Russian casualties estimated at 180,000–220,000 killed in action, with up to 500,000 seriously wounded (C: 28:07).
• Casualties come disproportionately from convicts, poor regions, and non-Russian ethnicities, limiting social unrest.
• Average age of Russian casualties (mid–late 30s) reduces societal impact compared to youth mobilization.
• High payouts to families further mitigate backlash.

Quote (Kofman, 33:17):

"If it was 18-year-olds and 19-year-olds, yeah, you’d probably see a lot more mothers out there on the streets. But when your average age is mid to late 30s, then it's a bit of a different story."

5. Why Riyadh? The Venue for Peace Talks (38:09–40:39)

• Traditional neutral sites like Helsinki or Stockholm are now NATO members or not viable.
• Riyadh is mutually acceptable, with both Russia and the U.S. having working relationships with Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia’s intermediary status and prominent role in global oil and regional politics make it a logical host.

Quote (Kendall-Taylor, 39:05):

"The main criteria has always been that it would have to be someplace neutral...and there’s kind of a relatively short list of countries now that meet that criteria."

6. Is There a U.S. Grand Strategy? Realpolitik or Transactionalism? (40:39–48:45)

• High skepticism from both guests that current outreach to Russia is part of a master plan to split Moscow from Beijing.
• Both describe Trump policy as transactional, affinity-based (particularly with strongmen), not strategic.
• U.S. votes with Russia at the U.N., signaling a profound shift away from old U.S. alliances and values-based diplomacy.
• Kofman notes Russia’s approach is to tempt Trump with business deals and suggest that ending sanctions would benefit the U.S. economy—but the reality doesn’t match the rhetoric.
• Both see little evidence supporting a "3-sphere world" grand bargain as more than wishful or post-fact rationalization.

Quote (Kendall-Taylor, 41:27):

"I also think that there’s just the plain fact that he has an affinity for strongmen, and Putin has been at the top of that buddy wishlist for a very long time."

Quote (Kofman, 47:13):

"So far, I think Trump’s approach is not geostrategic...it’s much more transactional and economically oriented. What I see is Russia’s effectively seized on that, and it’s bidding, proposing economic deals, resource trades..."

7. Implications for the Future: U.S. Doctrine & European Security (48:45–50:44)

• Trump’s foreign policy reflects "great power politics over alliance block politics,” transactional self-interest, and a break with traditional multilateralism.
• Question remains whether this signals a lasting shift for U.S. foreign policy or is specific to Trump.
• Both experts express concern: Concessions now may only embolden future aggression.
• Demetri flags up upcoming topics for premium subscribers: nuclear doctrines, China’s nuclear buildup, the possible birth of a new world order, and the uncertain security future for Europe.

Quote (Kofman, 48:48):

"I don’t think they’re trying to pull Russia away from China. I don’t think that would work. And I’ve been very clear publicly on it that I think this is magical thinking."

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Kendall-Taylor (06:35):
  "Russia orchestrated another major drone attack against Kyiv...they do not demonstrate any interest in making any concessions or any good faith gestures going into those negotiations."
• Kofman (10:51):
  "The U.S. wants to end the war. Russia does not actually want to end the war. Russia wants a victory."
• Kendall-Taylor (14:48):
  "A bad end to this war will only bring future human suffering in the future. An end to the war at any cost is not going to be a durable end to the war..."
• Kofman (40:19):
  "...the intersection of the Venn diagram between countries with which both U.S. and Russia have relatively friendly relations...you don't get a lot in the middle. So that part makes sense."
• Kendall-Taylor (41:27):
  "I have to say I can't play devil's advocate on this one. I think it is so egregious the way that he has shifted U.S. policy towards Russia on a dime..."
• Kofman (50:18):
  "There are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends, there's only permanent interests."

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | Introducing the Guests & Their Backgrounds | 03:42–04:53 | | U.S. & Russian Negotiating Positions Explained | 06:02–11:56 | | Domestic Political Forces & Trump’s Motivations | 11:56–16:26 | | Process Issues: U.S. Incoherence and Lack of Strategy | 17:00–22:39 | | Factions & Pressures Inside Russia | 23:07–27:51 | | Russian Casualties & Political Insulation | 27:51–38:09 | | Why Riyadh as Venue | 38:09–40:39 | | Is There a U.S. Grand Strategy? | 40:39–48:45 | | Closing: Future of U.S. Doctrine, Nuclear Issues Preview | 48:45–50:44 |

Summary Takeaways

• Current negotiations are dominated by Russian intransigence and U.S. urgency, with Russia holding the stronger hand for now due to lack of real U.S. leverage.
• Trump’s administration is acting on personal, not strategic, grounds—transactionalism and self-image drive policy.
• Putin’s regime, insulated from internal dissent, is under little pressure to compromise, leveraging demography and payouts to keep casualties from generating domestic instability.
• Choice of Riyadh underscores shrinking neutral diplomatic space and the rise of ‘transactional’ Middle East diplomacy.
• Skepticism among experts that any "grand bargain" to split Russia from China is realistic.
• The shift away from alliance-based, values-driven U.S. foreign policy toward great power transactionalism may mark a major transformation in global order, with deep risks for future European security.

For further in-depth discussion on nuclear strategy, the future of U.S.-Russia-China relations, and European security, listeners are directed to the second hour on the Hidden Forces Premium feed.