Hidden Forces: Iran's Counterrevolution & the Future of the Greater Middle East

Host: Demetri Kofinas
Guest: Dr. Kamran Bokhari (Senior Fellow, New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy)
Co-Host: Grant Williams
Date: January 19, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode offers an expansive analysis of Iran’s nationwide protests, the state and future of the Iranian regime, and the broader geopolitical stakes for the Middle East and beyond. Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams host Dr. Kamran Bokhari, a leading expert on Middle Eastern geopolitics, to unpack Iran’s modern history and its current instability. The conversation is structured in two parts:

1. Deep historical context—how the Iranian state and its power structures evolved.
2. Current dynamics—the protests, IRGC weakness, regime decay, regional shockwaves, and the strategic outlook for the US and neighboring countries.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Why Iran, Why Now?

• The episode is part of the “Hundred Year Pivot” series on global transformation.
• The protests in Iran are seen as both a result and accelerator of the country’s internal and external decline.
• The October 7th attacks and Israel’s subsequent dismantling of Iran’s proxy network were seen as a pivotal moment revealing the vulnerabilities of the Islamic Republic’s power apparatus.
• Quote:

  "The October 7th attacks clearly served as a catalyst for both weakening the center of gravity in Iran and exposing the IRGC and its proxies...as effectively paper tigers."
  — Demetri Kofinas [04:51]

2. Historical Context: Understanding Modern Iran

[10:32–18:14]

Qajar to Pahlavi Dynasties

• Modern borders of Iran solidified in the 19th century after losing territory to Russia.
• The era known as "The Great Game" saw Iran as a buffer between British and Russian spheres of influence.

Constitutional Revolution & the 1953 Coup

• Early 1900s: A broad-based constitutional movement sought representative government but ultimately failed to dislodge the monarchy.
• 1953: US- and UK-backed coup reinstated the Shah, sidelining elected PM Mossadegh amid Cold War concerns.

1979 Islamic Revolution

• A coalition of Islamists, liberals, and Marxists overthrew the Shah; the clergy’s organizational strength proved decisive.
• The regular army (Arteish) refused to fire on protesters, enabling the revolution’s success.
• New regime purged the military, distrustful of its loyalties.

Quote:

"Agitation and protests alone do not topple the regime. Parts of the regime have to defect...the regular armed forces basically said, we're not going to fire on protesters."
— Kamran Bokhari [17:13]

3. Iran’s Dual Military Structure & the Rise of the IRGC

[18:14–23:53]

• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): Paramilitary force created to protect the revolution; quickly expanded into political and economic realms, controlling everything from missiles to telecommunications.
• Arteish (regular armed forces): Deliberately depoliticized, kept under-resourced compared to the IRGC.
• IRGC Evolution: Grew from ideologically pure to increasingly corrupt and factionalized, involved in business, smuggling, and internal repression.

Quote:

"Any institution becomes as big as the IRGC, its monolithic nature begins to wane...there are subdivisions, even two separate intelligence organizations within the IRGC."
— Kamran Bokhari [32:37]

4. Strategic Culture and Regional Dynamics

[25:17–31:54]

"Threat from the West" – Iran’s Historical Outlook

• From Alexander’s conquest, Sassanid vs Byzantine, Arab and Turkic domination, to Saddam’s 1980 invasion, Iranian strategy has always been to contain threats from the western flank.
• Post-2003: US toppled Saddam, enabling Iran’s influence across a contiguous zone to the Mediterranean.

Mutual Hostility with the West

• US saw Islamic revolution as a strategic loss in the Cold War.
• 1979–80: US Embassy hostage crisis and support for Hezbollah set the stage for enduring conflict with the US and Israel.

5. IRGC’s Peak and Decline

[38:43–42:14]

• Peak Influence: Coincided with withdrawal of US troops from Iraq (2011) and Syria’s dependence on Iran (2011–2013).
• Decline: Israeli airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon (2024), collapse of Hezbollah, Assad regime under threat, loss of proxy power.

Quote:

"The IRGC's entire strategy for 40 years falls on its face...now their questions are being asked: you kept us impoverished for what?"
— Kamran Bokhari [47:22]

6. The Road to Protest: 2013 Nuclear Deal to 2026 Unrest

[42:14–54:09]

The JCPOA & Public Expectations

• JCPOA (2015 nuclear deal) created economic hope; Trump’s exit (2018) and renewed sanctions dashed expectations.
• Worsening economy, persistent corruption, and IRGC resistance to economic liberalization fueled unrest.

Protest Timeline

• 2017–2019: Economic turmoil triggers unrest.
• 2022: The death of Mahsa Amini sparks women-led, nation-wide protests.
• 2026: The regime is weaker than ever; currency devaluation brings the merchant (bazaar) class into open opposition for the first time.

Quote:

"For the first time, the merchant community...the bazaar...are forced onto the streets. The pain becomes so much, that the rest is the history of the past three weeks."
— Kamran Bokhari [49:53]

7. Why This Protest Wave Is Unique

[54:21–58:03]

• Regime Weakness Unprecedented: IRGC’s legitimacy shattered by military failures; economic collapse triggers broader societal participation than before.
• Breadth of Unrest: All provinces affected, merchants leading, thousands killed (probably far higher than the official figures).

Quote:

"The regime has never been this weak...the merchant community had not participated in any prior protests...now you have people from all walks of life, even in the smaller towns."
— Kamran Bokhari [54:58]

8. Possible Scenarios & Pathways Forward

[58:44–75:43]

Not Just "Collapse or Survival"

• Regime collapse is unlikely and “not binary”; slow, decaying transition is more probable.
• Key variable: whether the regular army (Arteish) and IRGC can find common ground or if infighting creates chaos.
• US intervention is possible—e.g., airstrikes on IRGC bases—to tip the balance but carries huge risks.

Key Quotes:

"Does the IRGC collapse suddenly? No...regimes that overthrow other regimes, their first order of business is let's make sure nobody does that to us."
— Kamran Bokhari [77:14]

"We are in a long-term situation of regime decay...the regular armed forces are the last line of defense, whether for the regime or the State of Iran."
— Kamran Bokhari [58:44, 88:08]

9. Regional Reverberations

[78:42–87:01]

• Turkey: Sees both risk (refugees, Kurdish insurgency) and opportunity to expand influence.
• Azerbaijan: Hopes for friendlier, possibly Azeri-led new order in Iran.
• Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan: Each faces potential spillover: revived Kurdish activism, Shiite retrenchment, Taliban modeling, Baloch unrest, and criminal syndicates.

Quote:

"Whatever happens in Iran will not stay in Iran. There will be shockwaves, reverberations that leap beyond Iran. How far, we don't know, how intensely, we don't know."
— Kamran Bokhari [86:29]

10. What to Watch and How to Stay Informed

[87:01–93:52]

• Key factors: Actions of the regular army, IRGC’s cohesion or fracturing, role of the Basij militia, US involvement, moves from regional powers, and the fate of Khamenei.
• Conspiracy theories abound, but must “watch what the armed forces do.”
• Social media information is unreliable; official tallies likely understate reality.

Quote:

"Ultimately they're [the army] the last line of defense...the clergy is just waiting to be shown the door...if the IRGC and regular armed forces reach an understanding, maybe something coherent emerges—otherwise, chaos."
— Kamran Bokhari [88:08]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On IRGC Corruption and Factionalization:

  "Ideology is instrumental. You're not really sort of the true believers anymore, but they're still true believers because whoever becomes a commander is appointed by Khamenei."
  — Kamran Bokhari [34:08]

• On Assigning Blame:

  "Instead of assigning blame, let's look at it from imperatives and constraints..."
  — Kamran Bokhari [25:17]

• On US Strategy:

  "The president is saying to the Iranians, can you fix this situation somehow? But the president also knows that the Iranians are not in a position to fix this situation."
  — Kamran Bokhari [71:50]

• On Regime’s Future:

  "Status quo cannot endure, but change is dangerous. So what's that formula? That's the struggle of this regime."
  — Kamran Bokhari [76:28]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Historical context & revolutions: 10:32–25:17
• Rise and evolution of IRGC: 18:14–34:08
• IRGC peak, decline, and regional games: 38:43–47:22
• Path to the 2026 protests: 42:14–54:21
• Uniqueness and breadth of current protests: 54:21–58:03
• Pathways, scenarios, US backchannels: 58:44–75:43
• Impact on the region: 78:42–87:01
• How to analyze what's next: 87:01–93:52

How to Follow Dr. Kamran Bokhari

• Forbes columnist, regular contributor to Geopolitical Futures (paywalled), most active on X:
  @KamranBokhari

Quote:

"Come talk to me on X. Kamran Bokhari, no spaces, no ones, no crazy symbols."
— Kamran Bokhari [95:20]

Final Thoughts

• The episode offers a panoramic perspective, highlighting how the future of Iran is fraught with uncertainty, complexity, and risk of spillover.
• Collapse is not imminent, but regime decay is likely and consequential.
• Regional actors are preparing for a variety of outcomes, none of them stable or easily managed.
• Critical thinking, skepticism toward simplistic narratives, and multidimensional analysis are essential for investors, policymakers, and the informed public.

For full episode transcripts, further analysis, and premium content, visit hiddenforces.io. Follow Demetri Kofinas on X: @kofinas.