In Episode 487 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vali Nasr — professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, non-resident senior advisor in the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and author of Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History — about the argument that the Islamic Republic's conduct is driven far less by religious ideology than by national insecurity and historical grievance, how that reframing bears on US and Western policy and the nuclear negotiations, the forces that forged the Islamic Republic into what it is today, and the range of likely outcomes for Iran, the region, and the global economy.

The first hour examines the central argument of Vali's work—drawn from his book and a recent Foreign Affairs article co-authored with Narges Bajoghli—that the Islamic Republic's conduct is driven far less by religious ideology than by a deeply entrenched sense of national insecurity and historical grievance rooted in Iran's long experience of foreign domination. They trace that experience through Iran's centuries of isolation and weakness, the imperial penetration of the nineteenth century, and the 1953 coup against Mohammad Mossadegh, before turning to why the distinction between ideology and rational national interest is so consequential for how the United States, Tel Aviv, and the West approach Iran—nowhere more so than in the nuclear negotiations.

The second hour turns to the forces that made the Islamic Republic what it is today, beginning with the eight-year Iran-Iraq War—the crucible in which its current leadership, its institutions, and the Revolutionary Guards were formed, and from which Iran drew its doctrine of forward defense and proxy warfare. From there they examine Iran's nuclear program as an instrument of negotiation and deterrence rather than an end in itself, the effects of the maximum pressure campaign and sanctions, and how the latest war has accelerated cultural change inside the country. The conversation closes by drawing a parallel between the collapse of the Safavid state in 1722 and China's century of humiliation before considering the range of likely outcomes—including whether a grand bargain is possible and what the default scenario looks like for Iran, the region, and the global economy if the status quo persists.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 07/06/2026