Hidden Forces: "Is the US at Risk of Losing the Long-Game to China?" with Rush Doshi

Date: March 17, 2025
Host: Demetri Kofinas
Guest: Rush Doshi (Director, China Strategy Initiative, CFR; former Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan, NSC; Author, "The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order")

Episode Overview

In this episode, Demetri Kofinas sits down with Rush Doshi to unravel China's long-standing strategic vision and its implications for the U.S. and global order. Together, they explore Doshi’s influential book, "The Long Game," dissect China’s national ambitions, analyze how U.S. policy has evolved across administrations, and clarify what’s truly at stake for Americans. The conversation merges deep historical context, analysis of Party documents and memoirs, and candid insights into grand strategy, nationalism, and the evolving U.S.-China competition.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Rush Doshi’s Background and Perspective

• Demetri introduces Doshi’s bona fides—academic rigor, government service, and Mandarin proficiency—emphasizing his unique access to both primary Chinese sources and the policymaking sphere (04:46).
• Doshi credits his career path to early curiosity in China-India comparisons and immersion in Chinese society via academic and professional stints in China (09:23).

2. The Influence and Premise of "The Long Game"

• The book, drawing on extensive primary sources—over 5 million words from Party documents, leaked materials, and memoirs—was groundbreaking in positing that China has maintained a grand strategy to displace the U.S.-led order since the Cold War (14:23).

  “I can’t quantify the impact… but areas of the book that were controversial five years ago are now accepted discourse. China’s pursuit of technology dominance, making the world dependent on its supply chains—these are now part of the conversation.” — Rush Doshi [04:11]

3. How Do We Know What China Wants?

• Doshi demystifies the often opaque Chinese Communist Party (CCP) decision-making, describing its surprising internal transparency for those who can decode Party-speak (18:54).
• Unlike the U.S., where policy signals are diffuse and sometimes contradictory, the CCP is authoritative and directive; grand strategic texts serve as both policy blueprints and mobilization tools.

  “The Chinese Communist Party is actually surprisingly transparent…our problem over the last 30 years has been that we didn’t listen.” — Rush Doshi [20:57]

4. Understanding China’s Grand Strategy: Blunting, Building, Expanding

• Doshi presents a three-phase arc to China’s strategic approach (27:23):
  • Blunting (Hide and Bide): Quietly neutralizing U.S. leverage, investing in asymmetric capabilities; joining international organizations to sabotage from within.
  • Building: Developing indigenous power, launching initiatives like Belt and Road, building alternative institutions.
  • Expansion (Great Changes Era): Projecting power globally, seeking dominance in technologies, resetting international norms towards illiberalism.
• Pivotal historical shocks that altered trajectory: Tiananmen Square, Gulf War, Soviet collapse, Global Financial Crisis, recent populism, and COVID-19.

  “China’s Great Changes Era is about going global…dominating supply chains globally so the world is dependent on China and China is less dependent on the world.” — Rush Doshi [30:45]

5. Chinese Nationalism and the Legacy of Humiliation

• The CCP’s animating impulse: nationalist rejuvenation after the “century of humiliation.” Historic figures like Sun Yat-sen envisioned China as “number one,” benchmarking against the West and the U.S. specifically (23:25).
• The Chinese nationalism motif is not unique—other post-colonial societies echoed similar ambitions.

6. The Why: Why Care About China's Rise?

• Doshi promises to answer why China’s targeted dominance should concern Americans: it’s not just economic, but also about future global norms, technological supremacy, and the fate of liberal values (33:45).

7. Internal Debates in China on Global Ambition

• Initially, China’s ambition was gradual and cautious—not driven by daily obsession with defeating America, but rather methodically growing its power until ready to build alternative order (37:07).

8. What Does China Want? Visions of Global and Regional Order

• The CCP’s primary goal: “Make China great again”—secured through power, prosperity, and international status, stemming both from security fears and a collective quest for restitution and greatness (40:36).

  “The goal of the Chinese Communist Party for 100 years has been simple: Make China great again.” — Rush Doshi [40:36]

• Doshi draws parallels between the psychological drivers of Chinese nationalism and that of other historical figures/countries, like Lyndon Johnson and the U.S. (42:25).

9. U.S. Consensus on China: Shifting from Engagement to Competition

• The old consensus: integration would liberalize China. This has “clearly not paid off.”
• A bipartisan consensus now frames China as a competitor; ironically, Trump both catalyzed this consensus and, at times, stands outside it via transactional tendencies (43:59).

10. China’s Social Contract and Vision for the Future

• Doshi details China’s model: global military reach, domination of key supply chains and emerging technologies (AI, robotics, biotech), and an illiberal global order. The world’s dependence on China mirrors classic mercantilism—not mere profit, but power through dominance (48:27).

  “Their rivals…have a different set of metrics. They’re mercantilists, not pure capitalists.” — Rush Doshi [48:27]

• A future Chinese order would entail partial global hegemony, “acquiescence, deference to its political, economic, social, technological preferences in exchange for some modest prosperity...” (52:20)

  “If the leading state is an authoritarian country…you probably see a democratic winter across the world in a form of Chinese partial hegemony over much of the global south…” — Rush Doshi [52:22]

Notable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

• Measuring Influence:

  “I'm grateful that people read it. Anytime someone tells me they read it, I thank them. Then I apologize because it's very long and it's very dense at times.” — Rush Doshi [04:11]

• U.S. Missed the Memo on China:

  “Our problem, the American problem over the last 30 years has been that we didn't listen.” — Rush Doshi [20:57]

• What is Leninism to China’s Party Structure?:

  “Leninism is about making sure every member of the orchestra is playing the right note.” — Rush Doshi [21:09]

• What animates the CCP?:

  “The goal of the Chinese Communist Party for 100 years has been simple: Make China great again.” — Rush Doshi [40:36]

• Strategy Phases:

  “They go from blunting American order to building Chinese order. That's a huge change in the way that China sees the world.” — Rush Doshi [30:20]

• Technological Revolution:

  “Artificial intelligence, but also increasingly embodied artificial intelligence, perhaps in humanoid robotics, smart manufacturing, quantum science…Collectively, they're transformative.” — Rush Doshi [48:27]

• Order Components:

  “Order... is a product of coercion, the ability to make people do what you want them to do, consent to incentivize them... and legitimacy to rightfully command them...” — Rush Doshi [50:02]

Important Segment Timestamps

• [03:13] Introduction to Rush Doshi, book’s influence
• [09:23] Doshi’s China experiences, language studies
• [14:23] Research methodology behind "The Long Game"
• [18:54] Transparency in CCP strategic signaling
• [23:25] Nationalist roots of CCP and benchmarking against the West
• [27:23] Three phases of China’s grand strategy
• [33:45] Doshi on why U.S. should care about China’s ambitions
• [37:07] Evolution of Chinese elite thinking on power projection
• [40:36] What does China (the CCP) want? National greatness explained
• [43:59] Old U.S. engagement consensus and emergence of bipartisan competition
• [48:27] China’s play for technological superiority and global order

Engaging, Memorable Moments

• Comparing CCP Textual Analysis to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes:

  “There's a famous quote...going through these materials is like munching rhinoceros sausage and drinking sawdust by the bucketful...looking for marginal changes and tweaks that help paint a picture of meaning.” — Rush Doshi [15:56]

• Connecting Corporate America and Statecraft:
  When discussing how organizations react to existential threat, Doshi and Kofinas compare China's reaction to the Gulf War with Bill Gates’ “Internet Tidal Wave” memo (35:24).

• Defining “Order”:

  “Order... is a product of coercion, consent and legitimacy. China is building all three.” — Rush Doshi [50:02]

Flow and Usefulness

The discussion moves seamlessly from the granular—how to interpret CCP internal texts—to the grand sweep of history and strategic intent, culminating in a clear-eyed warning: China’s ambition is not just regional but global, and its vision is systemic, not transactional. By unpacking the historical drivers, the logic of nationalism, and Party methodologies, Doshi provides a rare, nuanced understanding that U.S. policymakers (and the public) can use to recalibrate expectations and policy. The episode is invaluable for anyone seeking clarity on the stakes of the 21st-century U.S.-China rivalry.

For listeners wanting deeper policy analysis, Rush Doshi’s "The Long Game" and prior Hidden Forces episodes are strongly recommended.