Hidden Forces: "The Iran War and the Limits of American Power"

Guest: Joshua Landis (Director, Center for Middle East Studies, University of Oklahoma)
Host: Demetri Kofinas
Date: March 5, 2026

Episode Overview

This special, abbreviated edition of Hidden Forces features Middle East expert Joshua Landis for an urgent and nuanced discussion of the rapid escalation in U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. Host Demetri Kofinas and Landis analyze the unclear objectives and strategic narratives behind the bombing campaign, contextualize it in the history of American interventions in the region, examine the risks of pushing Iran toward internal collapse, and assess the broader geopolitical fallout, especially for Turkey and emergent regional alignments. The conversation leans into hard geopolitical realities and the historical record, with both host and guest questioning the wisdom, sustainability, and long-term consequences of U.S. policy.

1. The Objectives and Ambiguities of the Iran Campaign

(04:18 – 07:18)

• Lack of Clarity from the Administration
  • Demetri and Joshua agree the U.S. government has failed to clearly communicate its goals.
  • Quote (Demetri, 04:18): “They haven’t done a great job of communicating what those are or communicating a clear theory of victory.”
• Israel's vs. US Objectives
  • For Israel, regime change is the primary objective.
  • US goals are muddled—rhetoric alternates between regime change, destroying nuclear/missile capabilities, and vague higher ideals.
  • Quote (Landis, 04:18): “For Israel, the objectives are regime change. For the United States, it’s unclear…”
  • There’s skepticism about the likelihood of “taking down the regime” given Iran’s deep, institutionalized military and nationalistic ethos.

2. Political & Economic Constraints Facing the US

(07:18 – 10:11)

• Flexible Goals, Short Public Patience
  • Not specifying objectives gives President Trump maneuverability but leaves the public confused and impatient.
  • There's a tight timeline—rising inflation and energy prices threaten public support quickly.
• Cost of War and Oil Markets
  • US expenditures are massive (e.g., two carrier groups cost millions daily, three lost jets almost half a billion).
  • Sanctions on Iran have largely worked because China hasn’t broken them in earnest. US now insuring tankers in Straits of Hormuz, which is another unplanned expense.
• Quote (Landis, 07:18): “This war is going to be very expensive. You know, having two aircraft carrier groups over there, each one is $7 million a day... This is going to be very...”

3. Narrative 1: US as Reluctant Partner, Pushed by Israel

(10:11 – 14:21)

• US decision to go to war is possibly driven by Israeli security needs and impatience, and a calculation that Iran's retaliation would drag the US in anyway.
• Fears about sustainability: Iran can keep up attacks with cheaper missiles and drones; US interceptors are far costlier.
• Some suggest the US preempted an inevitable Israeli strike.
• Quote (Demetri, 11:07): “This was an ill advised decision on the part of the President, made out of frustration with the pace of negotiations, in part driven by Israel...”

4. Narrative 2: Containing China & Iran’s Nuclear Program

(12:35 – 14:21)

• Another view: US attack is a “long game” to deny Iran’s nuclear breakout and limit China’s influence.
• Landis is skeptical this really impacts China or fits a global containment plan.
• Quote (Landis, 12:35): “China has complied largely with America’s sanctions on Iran... So I don’t buy that argument that this is really doing damage to China..."

5. Regional Destabilization and the Civil War Risk

(18:42 – 25:33)

• History of Failed Regime Change
  • Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya all devolved into civil war and regional chaos after US intervention.
  • Landis warns Iran is far bigger (92 million people vs. Iraq/Syria ~22-24 million each) and highly diverse. The risk is catastrophic refugee flows and regional destabilization.
  • US efforts to arm Iranian Kurds are seen as repeating strategic errors; it may fracture Iran on ethnic lines.
  • Quote (Landis, 18:42): “If we start a civil war there... it’s going to send out tens of millions of refugees around the neighborhood, and none of our allies want that.”
  • Quote (Landis, 23:36): “We look at what’s happened with our last four regime change wars... The old adage about insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.”

6. Limits of Air Power and the 'Fantastical' Hope for Resets

(25:33 – 27:44)

• Administration may hope for a “Venezuela-style reset”—remove the leadership and install moderates—but this strains credulity.
• Quote (Demetri, 25:33): “Unlike Iraq, we’re expecting to do it with just air power... The whole thing seems fantastical, and I just have a hard time wrapping my head around it.”
• Landis doubts Iranian opposition can be “boots on the ground”: “They do not have arms, they are not armed, they do not have a leadership...” (27:44)

7. Kurdish Dynamics and Turkish Peril

(29:48 – 33:14)

• US talks of arming the Kurds in Iran evoke the same risks that fractured Iraq/Syria—and strain relations with Turkey.
• Turkey dreads Kurdish autonomy spreading; fears new waves of refugees if Iran unravels.
• The US recently abandoned Syrian Kurds; now promises Iranian Kurds autonomy, making Ankara suspicious and Kurdish factions wary.
• Quote (Landis, 30:28): “Turkey has spent the last decade being worried that by arming up the Kurds in Syria, this was going to cause a renewed independence movement amongst Kurds in Turkey...”

8. A Shifting Regional Order and Rising Israeli Power

(33:14 – 38:14)

• Former Israeli PM Bennett now calls Turkey “the new Iran”—he and other Israelis worry any remaining regional powers threaten the post-Iran order.
• Israel is increasingly dominant; Saudi Arabia and Turkey are realigning to contain Israel, with the Gulf states picking sides.
• Landis worries the US is attempting “absolute security” for Israel—which necessarily means “absolute insecurity for its neighbors”:
  • Quote (Landis, 34:10): “America should be fostering a balance of power... We cannot turn everyone into our ally and make everybody subservient to Israel.”

9. Optimistic & Pessimistic Scenarios

(39:38 – 42:13)

• Optimistic:
  • Trump’s gambit eliminates theocratic leadership; a secular, democratic Iran emerges. There’s some tradition of democracy and constitutional politics in Iran to build on.
  • Quote (Landis, 39:38): “The optimistic scenario is that President Trump bombs Iran, kills the top leadership, finds someone... who can take the reins of power... Iran emerges with some level of electoral and constitutional politics.”
• Pessimistic:
  • The IRGC or hardliners hold onto power or Iran slides into civil war; regional chaos, humanitarian crises, and US security catastrophically undermined.
  • Landis is clear this is the more likely scenario.
  • Quote (Landis, 41:50): “But in the Middle East, we haven’t seen that in our last four regime change wars.”

10. What to Watch For & Final Thoughts

(42:13 – 43:20)

• Key Variable:
  • The nature and capacity of any Iranian opposition.
  • Who is the US talking to? Is there a real leadership in waiting?
  • Quote (Landis, 42:24): “The big question is, who are we talking to in Iran? Are we talking to anybody in Iran?... And we don’t know the answers to that today.”

Notable Quotes

• Landis (06:48): “Iran is not like Saddam’s or Assad’s or even Gaddafi’s... it’s much more institutionalized. Iran has a higher level of nationalism, and the Revolutionary Guard is very big and it’s deep and it can reconstitute itself.”
• Kofinas (25:33): “Not only are we doing it again, but unlike Iraq, we’re expecting to do it with just air power... I just have a hard time wrapping my head around it.”
• Landis (39:38): “Iran emerges out of this with some level of electoral and constitutional politics. But it seems like such a small opening. And can it really be done through bombing a country? We’ve never done this through bombing a country.”

Key Timestamps

• 02:07 – 07:18: Background, lack of US clarity, the cost of war and political pressures
• 10:11 – 15:05: Competing strategic narratives; Israel’s vs. US objectives and traps
• 18:42 – 25:33: Risks of civil war, region-wide destabilization from prior US interventions
• 29:48 – 33:14: Turkish/Kurdish dynamics, lessons from Syria & Iraq
• 33:14 – 38:14: Regional realignment, Israel’s projection of power, the shrinking space for US strategy
• 39:38 – 43:20: Best- and worst-case scenarios; the unknowns of Iranian opposition

Summary & Takeaways

• The U.S. and Israel launched large-scale bombing in Iran with unclear goals, risking a repeat of disastrous regime change attempts in neighboring states.
• Landis argues the American political system and public have little tolerance for a protracted or costly war—raising stakes for the administration to declare “victory” quickly, even if goals are unmet.
• Iran is far less brittle than Iraq/Libya; splintering it risks enormous humanitarian and geopolitical blowback, especially refugee flows and a wider regional conflict.
• US promises to arm Kurdish minorities reprise familiar patterns that have alienated Turkey and backfired elsewhere.
• As Israel’s dominance grows, other regional axes are forming (Turkey, Saudi Arabia), and confrontation is shifting westward.
• The narrow path for a successful outcome—a democratic Iran, no civil war, limited US entanglement—seems remote.
• The fate of the conflict may hang on unknowns: Are there credible opposition leaders in Iran? Is there even a plan for “the day after”?

For more background or previous appearances by Joshua Landis on the show, see episodes 106 (“US Withdrawal and the End of the Rules Based Global Order”) and other Middle Eastern crisis updates.