Hidden Forces Podcast Summary
Episode: Trump's National Security Strategy: A Plan to Contain China or Carve Up the World?
Host: Demetri Kofinas
Guest: Jamie Metzl
Date: December 22, 2025
Overview
In this episode, Demetri Kofinas is joined by Jamie Metzl—author, futurist, and experienced foreign policy practitioner—to analyze the Trump administration's 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). Their spirited and in-depth discussion explores whether the NSS represents a coherent plan to contain China, a return to 19th-century-style great power politics, or an abandonment of the liberal international order that has defined US foreign policy since WWII. The conversation further dissects the implications of America’s current geopolitical trajectory, domestic political dysfunction, and challenges in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. Touching on sensitive historical and current events, the pair wrestle with difficult questions of values, power, and unintended consequences for the world order.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Setting the Table: Jamie Metzl’s Background
[04:19 – 07:58]
- Metzl’s career: Born in Kansas City, then academic stints at Brown, Oxford, and Harvard Law. Early experience in refugee camps and service under President Clinton on the National Security Council, focusing on emerging threats like terrorism and technology.
- Long-term focus: Metzl has been preoccupied with the implications of genetics, biotechnology, and AI, using books (“Genesis Code,” “Eternal Sonata,” “Hacking Darwin”) to engage the public in these issues.
2. The Importance of Self-Diagnosis: 9/11, Iraq, and Accountability
[08:07 – 18:35]
- Reflection on 9/11 intelligence failures: Both speakers note the “left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing” dynamic due to siloed intelligence agencies, later leading to the creation of Department of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
- Accountability deficit: Kofinas laments the "biblical" lack of accountability, especially for Iraq:
“There was no accountability for what was arguably the worst foreign policy set of decisions in American history.” — Demetri Kofinas [15:12]
- Metzl concurs: Iraq, if not the worst, is among the worst—“massively self-defeating... such a disaster.” [15:57]
- Iraq War origins debunked: Metzl refutes revisionist history that Israel or its lobby was the primary driver, noting it was American strategic thinking focused on empire and oil control, not Israeli interests.
3. Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy: Diagnosis and Debate
What Is the National Security Strategy?
[23:30 – 24:03]
- Definition: Yearly document by the White House setting national priorities, intentions, allocation of resources, and U.S. posture toward the world.
What Story Does the 2025 NSS Tell?
[24:18 – 29:39]
- Metzl’s take: The NSS “says that the organizing principles of the post-war international order are wrong” and calls for a return to “balance of power” politics reminiscent of the 19th and early 20th centuries. He fundamentally disagrees with this worldview.
- Kofinas’s challenge: Reads the NSS as primarily about "containment of China" and a more naked exercise of American empire, with hints of spheres of influence.
- Metzl doubles down: Critiques NSS for not actually articulating a clear containment strategy for China and instead relying on vague appeals to sovereignty and transactional relationships with limited attention to values, alliances, or institutions:
“If [the goal] were containment of China, I don't see that being articulated. What has been articulated is a return to national sovereignty, a sense of the world where great powers have their spheres of influence.” — Jamie Metzl [29:18]
On Spheres of Influence, Empire, and Power
[28:41 – 32:27]
- Both note the document’s shift away from multilateral institutions and toward a transactional, power-centric foreign policy.
- Metzl warns that such an approach “decimates” the alliances and frameworks that built postwar peace and prosperity.
- Kofinas: “We're burning the furniture to heat the house.” [32:27]
U.S.-Europe Relations and Right-Wing Populism
[32:32 – 39:18]
- The NSS’s section on Europe appears to support “transnational nationalist” right-wing movements, which Metzl derides as “nuts.” [35:21]
- Emphasizes the U.S. previously played a centrist, stabilizing role—now shifting toward undermining centrist liberal consensus.
- Metzl: “Our strength comes from standing for something and building a community of other people… Now we’re breaking [that] and replacing it with naked self-interest.”
4. Migration, Demographics, and Identity Politics—Europe in Crisis
[39:46 – 43:51]
- Kofinas draws on personal experience in Italy and Greece: "You'd have no idea you were in Italy… [so many] non-indigenous cultures are taking over larger and larger footprints within these countries.”
- Both agree the issue is cultural integration, not “skin color.” Growing populations of unintegrated migrants, falling birth rates, and perceived loss of national identity fuel right-wing political movements.
- Metzl supports legal immigration and pluralism, but notes:
“If we don't have structures and processes in place, then we’re going to see what we have [these breakdowns].”
- He cautiously notes a dangerous undercurrent: the administration's language seems to point toward “white Christianity in everything but just saying those words.” [43:48]
5. US Policy, Information Warfare, and the Gaza War
TikTok, Youth, and Propaganda
[44:00 – 44:20]
- Metzl asserts: “So many people are getting their information from TikTok… Propaganda designed to turn them into these mindless, frothing zombies.”
Israel, Gaza, and Power Politics
[45:00 – 56:32]
- Kofinas makes a generational/psychological point: Older generations, more invested in the system, become “desensitized to fundamental acts of violence”; young people react more to suffering.
- Metzl frames the October 7th attacks as a horrifying Hamas strategy designed to provoke an Israeli response [47:55]. Argues Hamas uses Gazans not as human shields but “as human sacrifices.” [50:34]
- On a moral reckoning:
“If any young person said, this is a tragic situation, there are injustices on both sides… I call on Hamas to surrender… [and on] Israel to pull back militarily… I would have hugged a person like that.” — Jamie Metzl [51:55]
- On Israeli politics: Netanyahu shares blame for the current impasse, but is “a political animal” with a complex record on settlements. Israeli and Palestinian leaders bear responsibility for failures on both sides.
6. Historical Roots & Unresolvable Tragedy of the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
[57:02 – 64:13]
- Metzl: Palestinians have repeatedly rejected “five peace deals”; their leadership “betrayed” them. Claims “one Gandhi” in 1947 could have changed history.
- Kofinas: The story is more about power than morality—“You don’t just get to have a nation-state.” Current realities reflect power dynamics, not right and wrong.
- Both agree the situation is deeply tragic, driven by history, cycles of violence, and the realities of power rather than simplistic moral binaries.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On self-delusion and looming crises:
“Didn’t you see that while you were tearing each other apart… there was a ticking time bomb under your feet?” — Jamie Metzl [13:56]
-
On US alliances:
“Taking everything that America has now for granted… assuming that what we have hasn’t yet been eroded is just going to stick around—because it won’t.” — Jamie Metzl [32:27]
-
On National Security Strategy:
“If they were saying our goal is containment of China, I would agree with it. I don’t see that… What has been articulated is a return to national sovereignty, a sense of the world where great powers have their spheres of influence…” — Jamie Metzl [29:18]
-
On Europe's rightward drift & US encouragement:
“To say the United States is now trying to overthrow the centrist liberal consensus… in the name of right wing parties… it’s just preposterous.” — Jamie Metzl [35:21]
-
On power and the Middle East:
“At the end of the day, the current dynamic in the Middle East reflects the realities of power.” — Demetri Kofinas [54:18]
Important Timestamps by Segment
- 00:00 – 04:19 | Host and guest introductions, Metzl’s background
- 08:07 – 18:35 | 9/11, Iraq, failures of US foreign policy & accountability
- 23:30 – 29:39 | NSS: meaning, intent, "containment" versus balance of power or spheres of influence
- 32:27 – 39:18 | US-Europe relationship, nationalist movements, and critique of NSS on alliances
- 39:46 – 43:51 | European demographic and immigration crises, integration challenges
- 44:00 – 51:55 | Information war, youth, and US-Israel-Gaza policy
- 57:02 – 64:13 | Israeli–Palestinian conflict, power politics, history, and tragedy
Tone and Language
- The dialogue is intellectually rigorous, direct, and unsparing—sometimes humorous and self-critical.
- Both Metzl and Kofinas embrace nuance, criticize their own "tribe," and seek honest self-reflection, sometimes lamenting "ping-pong" politics between extremes.
- Emphasizes the tragic, complicated nature of international affairs and warns against reductionist thinking.
Closing
This episode offers a dense, searching examination of America’s shifting national security philosophy, critiques the 2025 Trump administration National Security Strategy for its lack of clear vision or actionable alliance-building, and places urgent emphasis on the erosion of both US soft power and democratic norms. Kofinas and Metzl stress that without clear articulation of values and purpose, the US risks causing a destabilizing cascade both at home and abroad.
For the full discussion—including deep dives into China, the Middle East’s economic order, and Venezuela—listeners are invited to subscribe to the Hidden Forces premium feed.