Hidden Forces Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump’s Plan to Remake the Middle East
Host: Demetri Kofinas
Guest: Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director, New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy
Date: October 23, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Demetri Kofinas welcomes geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari to dissect the Middle East’s dramatic transformation since the October 7th, 2023 Hamas attacks. The conversation traverses the rapid collapse of Iran’s regional power, Israel’s triumph over its adversaries, the Trump Administration’s new 20-point peace plan, shifting US policy toward regional burden sharing, the fallout from high-profile attacks, and prospects for a postwar security order. The hour is rich with insider analysis, bold recalibrations of regional alliances, and reflections on shifting public sentiment.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: The Middle East Before October 7, 2023

• Pre-October 7: Region on the cusp of major realignment with Saudi-Israeli normalization talks, following the Abraham Accords.
• Stumbling Block: Saudi demands for meaningful concessions for Palestinians.
• Hamas’s Motive: Disrupted normalization to preserve Iranian regional agenda.
  • Quote [06:30], Bokhari:
    “This was done purposefully by Hamas...it was imperative that they, from their point of view, derailed this process and they successfully did so.”

2. The Conflict Unfolds: From Hamas Attacks to Regional War

• October 7, 2023: Unprecedented Hamas assault on Israel.
• Immediate Spillover:
  • Hezbollah engages northern Israel.
  • Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.
  • Israeli strikes in Syria and Iraq; crackdown on Hezbollah leadership.
• Regionalization:

  • Iran breaks precedent, launches direct missile/drone barrage at Israel, abandoning proxy-only warfare.

  • Israel’s successful targeting of Hezbollah’s hierarchy and eventual death of Hassan Nasrallah.

  • Fall of Assad Regime: Following weakening of Hezbollah, Turkish-backed rebels capitalize and topple Assad, shifting Levant power balance.

  • US strategic bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities during the June 2025 “12-day war.”

    • Quote [10:20], Bokhari:
      "By December...you literally saw the collapse of the Assad regime. Iran's influence in the Levant had collapsed and Turkey was filling the vacuum."

3. Israel’s Attack on Qatar: The Diplomatic Trigger

• Israeli Airstrike on Hamas officials in Qatar:
  • Sparked diplomatic crisis, forced Netanyahu’s public apology with U.S. President.
  • Led regional players to increase self-protection measures, e.g., Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact.
  • Served as leverage for the U.S. to demand de-escalation and push forward the peace process.
    • Quote [17:42], Bokhari:
      “The White House turned this moment of crisis into an opportunity. It provided the President with leverage to press Netanyahu...this has to end and it can't continue...”

4. The Erosion of Iranian Power: Military and Psychological

• Direct Strikes, Decapitation of IRGC leadership: Israeli bombing blitz cripples Iranian command.
• US Strategic Bombing: B-2 bombers destroy Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, previously thought invulnerable.
  • Quote [25:05], Bokhari:
    “They had really, really slick intelligence...They also took out nuclear scientists...The known facilities have been seriously degraded and destroyed.”
• Impact on Iranian Regime:

  • Loss of proxies, internal fracturing between IRGC and regular armed forces.

  • Public perception inside Iran shifts: loss of faith in regime’s strength; support base and public alike now question regime strategy and priorities.

    • Quote [31:08], Bokhari:
      “The Israeli military action and the strategic bombing...in addition to the loss of its regional proxy network, has really accelerated what was already going on inside Iran...the theocracy is giving way to military rule.”

5. The Proxy Network as "Camouflage"

• Iran’s regional proxies were necessary to mask core military weakness (lack of conventional power).
  • Quote [38:13], Bokhari:
    “Conventionally, Iran was a paper tiger...In order to camouflage that reality and work around it, the Iranians built this proxy network...[which] were real capabilities...Having eliminated those capabilities, then what remained was the paper tiger.”

6. A New Regional Security Order: Shifting U.S. Strategy

• Trump Administration Doctrine: Moving towards offshore balancing (“burden sharing”) with regional powers—Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel—taking more responsibility.
• 20 Point Peace Plan:
  • Ceasefire in Gaza, tasking regional stakeholders with stabilization and peacekeeping.
  • International stabilization force to oversee Gaza, with early involvement from Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and potentially others.
    • Quote [23:07], Bokhari:
      “...before he announced the 20 point plan...countries as far out as Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Indonesia...are going to be the ones contributing the most forces to this international stabilization Force...”

7. The Fallout for Palestinians and Israel

• Limited Near-Future for Two-State Solution:
  • Overwhelming trauma and demographic upheaval in Gaza.
  • Israeli domestic sentiment remains hostile to Palestinian sovereignty; security establishment resists open-ended occupation or ethnic cleansing.
    • Quote [55:03], Kofinas:
      “It seems October 7 dramatically increased the number of Israelis who basically wanted a final solution...”
    • Quote [55:33], Bokhari:
      “That's difficult to gauge with any degree of accuracy...But the people who are...actively supporting that, let's just get rid of the Palestinians, I still think they're a minority.”
• Arab/Muslim stabilization force in Gaza: Striving for security and disarmament, but skepticism around long-term Palestinian autonomy persists.

8. The Costs of Victory and International Opinion

• Pyrrhic Victory for Israel:
  • Military wins came with diplomatic isolation.
  • Once-possible broad Abraham Accord normalization now out of reach for near term; Saudis can’t simply “go back” to status quo ante.
    • Quote [45:11], Bokhari:
      “Going back to pre-10/7 reality is not possible...That’s the cost Israel has incurred.”
  • Unprecedented Western calls for Palestinian statehood (Canada, UK, France, Australia).
  • American public and political support for Israel has fractured, with bipartisan anti-Israel sentiment rising.

9. The Rise of Anti-Israel and Antisemitic Sentiment in the West

• Growing polarization in U.S.:
  • Both left and right showing unprecedented anti-Israel and antisemitic attitudes.
  • Implications for America’s long-term reliability as Israel’s supporter.
    • Quote [48:56], Bokhari:
      “...aggregate it, so there is a sizable population...some polls out there that say well above 60% of people have an unfavorable view of what Israel did in Gaza. That is a cost.”
• Framing for Second Hour:
  • Will national interests, not ancient religious rivalry, become the region’s defining dynamic?
  • What does the new security architecture mean for U.S. power in the Middle East?

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the New Paradigm

  • [08:20, Bokhari]: “We left that world behind...the whole idea of the proxies, that Iran would act by proxy and not get itself directly involved militarily...that world is gone.”

• On US Strategic Bombing

  • [25:05, Bokhari]: “They had really, really slick intelligence...the known facilities have been seriously degraded and destroyed.”

• On the Sufficiency of Regional Proxy Power

  • [38:13, Bokhari]: “Conventionally, Iran was a paper tiger...Having eliminated those capabilities, then, what remained was the paper tiger.”

• On the Pyrrhic Nature of Israel’s Victory

  • [45:11, Bokhari]: “Going back to pre-10/7 reality is not possible...That’s the cost Israel has incurred.”

• On American Attitudes

  • [48:56, Bokhari]: “There is a sizable population...some polls out there that say well above 60% of people have an unfavorable view of what Israel did in Gaza...”

Important Segment Timestamps

• Recap of region pre-October 7: [06:30–12:00]
• Widening of conflict, collapse of Assad, interventions: [12:00–17:00]
• The Qatar strike and diplomatic consequences: [17:08–23:00]
• US/Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear program: [24:08–30:20]
• Transformation within Iran: [31:08–36:08]
• Analysis of Iran’s “paper tiger” nature: [38:13–41:04]
• Abraham Accords vs. current realities: [42:56–46:01]
• New security order; roles of Turkey, Saudi, Pakistan, Egypt: [50:22–54:11]
• Israeli sentiment on Gaza/Palestinians: [54:11–59:31]

Tone and Language

The conversation is candid, analytical, and often speculative, with both host and guest engaging in nuanced, forward-thinking assessments. Kofinas presses for clarity on moral and strategic ambiguities, while Bokhari delivers granular details and big-picture synthesis, using precise, geopolitical language.

Conclusion

This episode provides a masterful, step-by-step account of a region remade by direct conflict, the unraveling of proxy networks, decisive U.S. intervention, and the ongoing recalibration of alliances and security paradigms. It sets up the next hour for an in-depth exploration of the region’s future, implications for U.S. grand strategy, and the complex, often contradictory, shifts in global and American attitudes toward Israel and Palestine.