High-Impact Growth: "Disrupted, Not Defeated: The Next Chapter in Global Development"

Podcast by Dimagi | August 27, 2025
Guests:

• Raj Kumar (Founder & Editor in Chief, Devex)
• Jonathan Jackson (CEO & Co-Founder, Dimagi)
• Amie Vaccaro (Senior Director of Marketing, Dimagi, Co-Host)

Episode Overview

This episode of High-Impact Growth explores seismic shifts in global development financing and architecture, following dramatic reductions in traditional government development aid (ODA). Returning guest Raj Kumar, founder of Devex, joins Jonathan Jackson and Amie Vaccaro to dissect how the global aid community can adapt in the face of a “cliff” in traditional funding—reflecting on what’s next for organizations, the rise of new power brokers, and the urgent need for a sharper outcomes and value-for-money focus. The discussion is unflinchingly candid about hardships, but also frames the present as a “clay is soft” moment—an inflection point for potentially more sustainable, locally-led, and tech-enabled impact.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Acceleration of Structural Change: Peak ODA and Aftermath

• [02:22] Raj Kumar reflects on how predicted trends (such as "peak ODA") materialized much faster than expected, catalyzed by political shifts and new administrations.
• US and UK government aid has been cut dramatically:
  • USAID saw dramatic, rapid cuts; the UK slashed 40% more from its aid budget.
  • Other OECD countries are following suit, though sometimes more gradually.
• The global sector faces “existential questions”:
  • "Go out of business, merge, [or] totally change their business model." (Raj Kumar, 04:18)

2. Three Layers of Sectoral Challenge

• [04:18] Raj describes three interlocking areas of disruption:
  • Immediate Human Impacts: Difficulty predicting real-world consequences, but pressure on health, education, and humanitarian outcomes, especially in the Global South.
  • Organizational Crises: Orgs are moving past denial and layoffs, toward hard choices about survival, mergers, and redefining purpose.
  • Re-architecting Development: Fundamental rethinking of global development architecture—shrinking roles for bilateral agencies and the UN, and rise of multilateral development finance and philanthropy.

3. Timeline & Turmoil: What Happens Next?

• [08:21] Raj predicts 12–18 months of chaos, especially in the U.S. system, due to:

  • Program staff losses, dropped projects, and confusion over leadership responsibility.
  • Administration efforts to stand up new partners, possibly more private sector/social enterprise-focused.

• Eventually (2–3 years), a more stable order will emerge, but in the meantime, “the clay is soft”—there’s a chance to influence the shape and values of the next era.

  "This gives us a moment when the clay is soft, where there's a chance to shape this new world and at least the narratives around it."
  — Raj Kumar [10:43]

4. Value for Money & Outcomes Over Outputs

• [11:21] Jonathan discusses the sector’s prior focus on adding more for more money, rather than doing proven things more efficiently.

• The need for cost-effectiveness is paramount—product offerings must be “good enough,” affordable, and directly address government priorities.

• Dimagi’s approach: Reducing their national digital health platform cost from $1M/year to $60K/year, with radical simplicity but clear, sustainable value.

  "If you're serious about digitizing your CHWs, it should be an easy yes."
  — Jonathan Jackson [16:47]

• Raj applauds greater clarity in customer focus and advocacy:

  • The sector’s historic “agency problem”—too many intermediaries, not enough end-user voice.
  • Need for stories of real-world consequences and successes to reach public and policy audiences.

5. Business Models & Survival Tactics in Crisis

• [31:52] Raj’s advice for organizations:

  • Form alliances and joint ventures: to have a louder, collective voice in the evolving sector.
  • Stay “lean and mean”: Assume further shocks are possible and preserve core values.
  • Get hyper customer-obsessed: Sharpen the value proposition, reduce costs, and focus on what is truly essential.

  "If that holds true, if that's strong, then maybe you can survive whatever the storms of the moment [are]."
  — Raj Kumar [35:21]

• Funders are “keeping their powder dry,” largely sustaining only existing grantees as they weather uncertainty, making it very challenging for newcomers.

6. The Future Funding Landscape: MDBs, DFIs, and Philanthropy

• [23:04–30:59]

• ODA will shrink further and be concentrated almost exclusively on humanitarian crises.

• Development finance institutions (DFIs) and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) (e.g., World Bank, DFC) will dominate new funding:

  • Funding will be more transactional, at national scale, with a private sector bent (and political priorities may play a bigger role).

• Philanthropy will likely surge—influenced by rising wealth inequality, strategic tax moves, and the desire of ultra-wealthy to leave a legacy, despite ongoing skepticism about donor motivations and reliability.

  "I'm not convinced [the old view] is true anymore. There's just so much money at the top."
  — Raj Kumar [30:56]

7. Localization, Tech Enablement & Outcome-Centricity

• Raj critiques localization as jargon that “undermined” public trust in ODA programs, suggesting the future lies in outcomes-focused, measurable, locally led, and tech-enabled initiatives.

• Funders (private and public) are likely to rally around big, tangible goals:

  • e.g., “Electrify a continent,” “eradicate a disease,” or “reduce migration pressures.”

• As aid recedes, governments and local actors may finally gain (or be forced to take) more operational control—potentially a silver lining.

  "Development should be locally led and tech enabled..."
  — Raj Kumar [45:36]
  "Localization... becomes the byproduct of doing the most cost effective outcome driven work possible."
  — Amie Vaccaro [51:46]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• "Everyone, regardless of the previous business model, touched ODA in one way or another…everyone is having to grapple with this question right now."
  — Jonathan Jackson [03:16]
• "Two to three years from now, things will have shaken out into a more stable place...I expect chaos for probably the next 12 to 18 months."
  — Raj Kumar [08:22]
• "Our community has long made [the mistake that] we talk to ourselves way too much...We assume a lot."
  — Raj Kumar [13:59]
• "The sector has always suffered from an unclear line to customers...you can end up building these systems that are way too expensive, complicated, compliance-heavy."
  — Raj Kumar [17:53]
• "If you're outcomes focused, you naturally go to a locally led, tech enabled approach because the most cost effective stuff is going to end up being locally led. But if you make your goal localization, you could end up [missing the point]."
  — Raj Kumar [48:44]
• "Now is one of the most difficult times to be trying to bring your price down, because everybody's struggling with financing right now...but that's how you can weather some of these challenges."
  — Jonathan Jackson [37:44]
• "The more we take what's happened as a wake up call—not just to defend what was, but to really reimagine what we want to be...and in that process, go out and talk to everyone, including the biggest critics of aid, including average people."
  — Raj Kumar [54:01]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Episode introduction, Raj’s return; setting the scene | 00:01–02:22 | | Rapid changes and aid cuts post-2023; impact layers | 02:22–07:37 | | Timeline for new “architecture”; 2–3 years for stabilization | 08:21–11:21 | | Pursuing value for money & Dimagi example | 11:21–17:51 | | The agency problem in development | 17:51–21:19 | | Funding & business models: what’s working/what’s not | 21:19–30:59 | | Raj’s advice to organizations | 31:52–36:25 | | Challenges for funders and grantees | 36:25–39:58 | | Accelerated shakeout & opportunities for buyouts/mergers | 41:55–43:02 | | The promise/difficulties of ‘pay for outcomes’ models | 43:02–47:42 | | The future of localization | 47:42–54:01 | | Closing reflections and hope for sector evolution | 54:01–55:43 |

Episode Tone & Final Reflection

Throughout the conversation, the tone is frank yet constructive, alternating between sobering realities and a pragmatic optimism about the possibilities presented by disruption. The guests emphasize humility, evidence-based adaptation, and the importance of storytelling and public engagement.

Closing Call to Action:

"Let’s use this as a wake up call to design a better path forward. There’s something better ahead as a result of all of this...and actually listen and learn from what’s just happened."
— Amie Vaccaro [55:00]

Quick Takeaways

• The era of traditional ODA and project funding is over; adaptation is not optional.
• Chaos and hardship are likely in the near term, but present a unique window to reshape the sector.
• Alliances, cost-effectiveness, outcome orientation, and a shift to MDBs, DFIs, and ultimately philanthropy will define the new global development landscape.
• The sector’s survival and future relevance depend on its ability to tell honest, ambitious, and accessible stories—and deliver demonstrable results.